M6 2020 Binomial Distribution Lecture Notes

CJC MATHEMATICS DEPARTMENT
2020 JC2 H2 MATHEMATICS (9758)

TOPIC: BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
H2 MATHEMATICS
TOPIC BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION 2020/JC2
Mastery Learning Objectives: At the end of the chapter, students should be able to
 state binomial distribution B  n, p  as an example of a discrete probability distribution,

 use B  n, p  as a probability model, including recalling the conditions under which the
binomial distribution is a suitable model,
 calculate probabilities of binomial distribution using GC or by formulae,
 find and use mean and variance of binomial distribution (without proof),
 find the mode of binomial distribution.
Pre-requisites:
□ Probability
□ Inequality
□ Mode
□ Discrete random variable
1 Introduction to Binomial Distribution
Let X be the random variable denoting the number of ‘sixes’ obtained out of 3 throws of an unbiased
die. Note that for every throw, we either get a ‘six’ or do not get a ‘six’. The probabilities of obtaining
0, 1, 2 or 3 ‘sixes’ may be re-written as follows:
0 3
1 5
P  X  0   3 C0    
6 6
1 2
1 5
P  X  1  3 C1    
6 6
2 1
1 5
P  X  2   C2    
3
6 6
3 0
1 5
P  X  3  3 C3    
6 6
x 3 x
1 5
In general, P  X  x   C x    
3
where x  0, 1, 2, 3 .
6 6
Note that the terms in this probability distribution can be obtained from the binomial expansion of
3 0 3 1 2 2 1 3 0
1 5 3 1 5 3 1 5 3 1 5 3 1 5
    C0      C1      C 2      C3     .
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
We call this distribution the binomial distribution.
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2 Definition of Binomial Distribution
Consider an experiment which has two possible outcomes, one of which may be termed ‘success’ and
the other ‘failure’. We have a random variable which follows a binomial distribution when we count
the number of successes in n independent trials of the experiment.
Let X denote the ‘number of successes in n independent trials of an experiment’.

Then, the probability distribution function of X is given by
n
P  X  x     p x 1  p 
n x
[in MF26]
 x
where p is the probability of a success and 1  p is the probability of a failure.
Proof (Self-Reading)
Let Si denotes “success” at the ith trial.
Let Fi denotes “failure” at the ith trial.
n!
P  X  x   P  S1  S 2  S x  F1  F2  Fn  x  
x ! n  x !

need to arrange the order of x "S" and n  x "F"
n!
p x 1  p 
n x

x ! n  x !
n!
 n C x p x 1  p 
n x
, since n C x 
x ! n  x !
n
   p x 1  p 
n x
x
 
The binomial distribution derives its name from the fact its probability distribution corresponds to the
n  1 terms of the binomial expansion of  1  p   p  .
n
Probability distribution of X ~ B  n, p 
x 0 1 2  n
 
n n n n
P  X  x     p  1  p     p  1  p     p  1  p     p  1  p 
0 n0 1 n 1 2 n2 n nn

0
  1
  2
  n
 
When we expand  1  p   p  ,
n
n n  n  n

 p  1  p      p  1  p      p  1  p        p  1  p      p  1  p 
n 0 n 0 1 n 1 n 1 1 n 0
0
  1
   n  1  n
 
It can be seen that the terms in the binomial expansion correspond to probability distribution.
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3 Notation for a Binomial Distribution
If X is a random variable which follows a binomial distribution with the number of trials  n and
probability of success  p , we may write X ~ B  n, p 
It reads “X follows a binomial distribution with parameters n and p”.
4 Characteristics of a Binomial Distribution
A random variable follows a binomial distribution if it satisfies the characteristics below:
 There is a fixed number of trials i.e. the trials are performed in a finite number of times.
 Each trial is independent of any other trial i.e. the outcome of one trial does not change
the probability of the outcome of another trial.
 Each trial has 2 mutually exclusive possible outcomes i.e. each trial yields only “success”
or “failure” outcomes.
 The probability of a success, denoted by p, is constant in each trial i.e. from one trial to
another trial, the probability of success remains constant.
Worked Example 1:
For each of the following events, determine whether a binomial distribution is a suitable model for the
random variable and state the parameters if it is suitable.
Binomial
Scenario Remarks
Distribution?
(a) The number of red beads in a random selection The probability of
of 10 beads from a jar containing 15 red beads No getting a red bean is not
and 25 blue beads, without replacement. constant in each trial.
(b) The number of red beads in a random selection Yes
of 10 beads from a jar containing 15 red beads  15 
X  B  10, 
and 25 blue beads, with replacement.  40 
(c) The number of questions that a student answers Yes
correctly out of 20 True or False questions if he  1
answers them randomly. X  B  20, 
 2
(d) The number of questions that a student answers Yes
correctly out of 20 MCQ with 4 choices if he  1
X  B  20, 
answers them randomly.  4
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5 Probabilities involving Binomial Distribution
Worked Example 2:
In a particular large population, 15% of the people are left-handed and the rest are right-handed. If
twelve people are selected at random from the population, determine the probability that
(i) exactly 2 people are left-handed,
(ii) at most 3 people are left-handed,
(iii) more than 4 people are left-handed, 1. The experiment consists of 12 trials.
2. The repeated trials are independent.
(iv) at least 7 people are not left-handed, 3. Each trial results in an outcome that
(v) there are between 3 and 9 left-handed people. may be classified as a left-handed
(success) or not (failure).
4. The probability of success is 0.15 for
each trial.
Solution:
Let X be the random variable denoting the number of people
12 who are left handed
out of ________________________________ .
 X ~ B  12 , 0.15 
(i) Method 1: Using G.C. command “binompdf”
Press Screen Display Remarks

1. Press MODE and turn on STAT This is to activate
WIZARDS. wizard menu for
keying statistics
command.
2. Press 2ND, VARS.
3. Select binompdf binompdf stands for

“binomial
probability
distribution
function”.
4. Enter the values as required.

Then highlight Paste and
ENTER.
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5. P  X  2
 0.292  to 3s.f 
Method 2: Using Formula

P  exactly 2 people are left-handed   P( X  2)
 12 C 2  0.15   0.85 
2 10
 0.292  to 3 s.f.
(ii) Method 1: Using G.C. command “binomcdf”

1. Press 2ND, VARS.
2. Select binomcdf binomcdf stands for

“binomial
cumulative
distribution
function”.

ENTER.
4. P  X  3
 0.908  to 3s.f 
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P  at most 3 people are left-handed 
 P  X  3
 P  X  0   P  X  1  P  X  2   P  X  3
 12 C 0  0.15   0.85   12 C1  0.15   0.85   12 C 2  0.15   0.85   12 C3  0.15   0.85 

0 12 1 11 2 10 3 9
 0.908  to 3 s.f.
 Remarks:
The graphing calculator only allows us to find P  X  x  by binomcdf. To find probabilities involving
other inequality signs, rewrite the expressions as follows:
To find Calculate
(a) P X  k  P  X  k  1
(b) P X  k  1 P X  k
(c) P X  k  1  P  X  k  1
(iii) P  more than 4 people are left-handed 

 P  X  4
 1  P  X  4
 0.0239  to 3 s.f.
(iv) P  at least 7 people are not left-handed 

 P  at most 5 people are left handed 
 P  X  5
 0.995  to 3 s.f.
(v) P  between 3 and 9 left-handed people 

 P 3  X  9
 P  X  8   P  X  3
 0.0922  to 3 s.f.
 Remarks:
(1) You can define “success” as someone who is right-handed, the answer will be the same.
(2) The word “between” means the end values are not inclusive.
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 Self-Practice:
Given that X ~ B  23, 0.34  , evaluate
(i) P  X  4 (ii) P  X  6  (iii) P  X  5  (iv) P  X  4 
(v) P  X  14.5  (vi) P  7  X  16  (vii) P  X  8  5.6 
Answers:
(i) 0.0441 (ii) 0.287 (iii) 0.0669 (iv) 0.933 (v) 0.00219 (vi) 0.546 (vii) 0.987
Worked Example 3:
A factory produces chocolates which are packed into boxes of 20 and delivered to a shop for sale. A
chocolate will not meet the minimum criteria for packing for sale if it weighs less than 20 grams. On
average, 2% of the chocolates produced do not meet the minimum criteria.
(i) Find the probability that a randomly chosen box contains at least 1 chocolate that does not meet
the minimum criteria.
(ii) Find the probability that out of 4 randomly chosen boxes of chocolates, there are exactly 2 boxes
with at least 1 chocolate that do not meet the minimum criteria.
Solution:
(i) 20 that do not
Let X be the random variable denoting the number of chocolates out of _________________
________________________________.
meet the minimum criteria
 X ~ B  20 , 0.02 
P (box contains at least 1 chocolate that does not meet the minimum criteria)
 P  X  1
 1  P  X  0
 0.33239
 0.332  to 3 s.f .
(ii) Let Y be the random variable denoting the number of boxes out of
4 that contains at least 1 chocolate that do not meet the requirement
__________________________________________________________________________ .
Y ~ B 4 , 0.33239 
P (exactly 2 boxes with at least 1 chocolate that do not meet the minimum criteria)
 P Y  2 
 0.29545
 0.295  to 3 s.f.
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 Remarks:
(1) As the probability of success in part (ii) is the answer from part (i), it important to use at least 5
significant figures for this value to preserve the accuracy to 3 significant figures.
(2) You need to define a new random variable Y in part (ii) to represent the number of boxes and
should not use the same random variable X from part (i) which represents the number of
chocolates.
Worked Example 4:
On average 1 in 100 light bulbs manufactured by a factory is faulty. A sample of n light bulbs were
selected. The number of faulty light bulbs in this sample is denoted by X .
(i) State, in context, two assumptions needed for X to be well modelled by a binomial distribution.
(ii) It is required that the probability that there are no faulty light bulbs in the sample is greater than
0.5. Find the largest value of n .
Solution:
(i) Assumptions:
1) The probability that a light bulb is faulty is a constant of 0.01.
2) Whether a light bulb is faulty is independent of other light bulbs.
(ii) Let X be the random variable denoting the number of bulbs out of
n that are faulty
_____________________________ .
X ~ B  n , 0.01 
Method 1: Using G.C. to determine n , given that P  X  0   0.5

1. Press Y=.
2. Press 2ND, VARS.
3. Select binompdf
Page | 126

ENTER.
5.
6. Press 2ND, GRAPH.

Press the down arrow key till you
find the first time the probability is
less than 0.5.
From the table,

n P  X  0
67 0.50999
68 0.50489
69 0.49984
 Largest sample size is 68 .

Probability that there are no faulty light bulbs in the sample is greater than 0.5
 P( X  0)  0.5
C0  0.99   0.01  0.5
n n 0
 0.99 
n
 0.5
n ln 0.99  ln 0.5
ln 0.5
n (since ln 0.99  0)
ln 0.99
n  68.9676
 Largest sample size is ____________.

68
Problem Solving Tip:

You could change the starting value and increment of the table to find a rough estimate of the value of
n before looking at the value for each n .
Page | 127

1. Press 2ND, WINDOW.  Tbl is set to 10 so
TblStart is the starting value of that the increment in
the table.
Note each row is larger are
 Tbl is the increment for each we can find a rough
row idea where the value
lies.

less than 0.5.
From the table it can be seen that the probability is less than 0.5 between the values of 60 and 70
inclusively. Now we change the table to start from 60 and increment by 1 for each row.

3.
Note

less than 0.5.
Page | 128
Worked Example 5: (Self-Reading)

Given that 20% of batteries produced by a machine is faulty, find the smallest sample size that must be
taken if it is required that the probability that there are less than 12 faulty batteries in the sample is less
than 0.65.
Solution:
n that are faulty
Let X be the random variable denoting the number of batteries out of _________________.
X ~ B  n , 0.2 
Probability that there are less than 12 faulty batteries in the sample is less than 0.65.
 P  X  12   0.65
P  X  11  0.65
Using G.C. to determine n , given that P  X  11  0.65

1. In Y1 , key in
binomcdf (X, 0.2, 11)
From the table,

n P  X  11
52 0.65932
53 0.63301
54 0.60645
 Smallest sample size is 53 .
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Worked Example 6:
A student has a probability of 0.1 of being late for school on any day. Given that in a sample of 18 days,
the probability that he is less than r days late for school is greater than 0.85, find the least value of r.
Solution:
Let X be the random variable denoting the number of days out of _____________________
18 that the student
________________________________
is late .
X ~ B  18 , 0.1 
Probability that he is less than r days late for school is greater than 0.85
 P  X  r   0.85
P  X  r  1  0.85
Using G.C. to solve the inequality P  X  r  1  0.85

Method 1:
1. In Y1 , key in
binomcdf (18, 0.1, X  1 )
From the table,

r P  X  r  1
3 0.7338
4 0.9018
5 0.97181
 Least value of r is 4 .
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Method 2: (For Model TI-84 Plus CE Graphing Calculator with OS 5.2.2.0043 only)

1. Press 2ND, VARS.
2. Select invBinom

ENTER.
The GC returns the

value of a for
P  X  a   0.85 .
In this case a = 3.
The GC returns the

value of a for
P  X  a   0.95 .
In this case a = 4.
Since from GC, P  X  a   0.85  a  3

So for P  X  r  1  0.85
 r 1  3
 r4
Hence, least value of r is 4.
Page | 131
Worked Example 7:
A child playing a computer game has a probability p of winning every time he plays a game. Given that
out of 20 games, the probability that he wins at least two games is 0.06, write down an equation for the
value of p , find this value numerically.
Solution:
Let X be the random variable denoting the number of games out of ___________________
20 that the
________________________________
child wins .
X ~ B  20 , p  In this case, can you rearrange

the expression to
y 1 1 p  20 p1 p  0.06
20 19
Probability that he wins at least two games is 0.06
and draw this graph instead?
 P  X  2   0.06 Where would you find the
solution?
1  P  X  1  0.06
 20   20 
1    p 0 1  p     p1 1  p 
20 20 1
 0.06
0 1
1  1  p   20 p 1  p   0.06
20 19
Using G.C. to determine p , given that 1  P  X  1  0.06

1. Key the left hand side expression
as Y1 and right hand side
expression as Y2 .
2. Adjust the window to

suit the values so that
the point of
intersection can be
clearly seen.
3. Find the intersection between the The point of

2 graphs. intersection gives the
value of p .
Using GC, p  0.0200  to 3s.f 
 Remarks:
When the question requires you to write down an equation before solving, you will need to apply the
probability distribution function to find the equation.
Page | 132
Worked Example 8: [2009/PII/11(part)]

A fixed number, n , of cars is observed and the number of those cars that are red is denoted by R .
(i) State, in context, two assumptions needed for R to be well modeled by a binomial distribution.
Assume now that R has the distribution B  n, p  .

(ii) Given that n  20 and p  0.15 , find P(4  R  8) .
(iii) Given that n  20 and P( R  0 or 1)  0.2 , write down an equation for the value of p , and find
this value numerically.
Solution:
(i) Assumptions:
1) The probability that any one car is red is the same throughout the sample.
2) The colour of each car must be independent of the colour of any other car.
(ii) R ~ B  20, 0.15

P(4  R  8)  P( R  7)  P( R  3)
 0.346  to 3 s.f.
(iii) R ~ B  20, p 
P( R  0 or 1)  0.2
P( R  0)  P( R  1)  0.2
(1  p) 20  20 p (1  p )19  0.2

1. Key the left hand side expression
as Y1 and right hand side
expression as Y2 .
2. Adjust the window to

suit the values so that
the point of
intersection can be
clearly seen.
3. Find the intersection between the The point of

2 graphs. intersection gives the
value of p .
Therefore p  0.142  to 3 s.f 
Page | 133
6 Expectation, Variance and Standard Deviation of a Binomial Distribution
If X ~ B  n, p  , then
Expectation of X : E  X     np [in MF26]
Variance of X : Var  X    2  np 1  p  [in MF26]
Standard Deviation of X : Var  X     np 1  p 
We can verify the above using a simple example. Using the fact that a Binomial variable is a subset of
a Discrete Random Variable, consider the case of tossing a fair coin three times and X is the random
variable the number of heads is obtained. Then the probability distribution table of X is as follows:
X 0 1 2 3
1 1 1 1
P( X  x)
8 8 8 8
 1  3  3  1 3
E( X )   0     1    2     3   
 8  8  8  8 2
 1  3  3  1
E( X 2 )   02     12     22     32    3
 8  8  8  8
2
3 3
Var(X )=E( X 2 )   E( X )   3    
2
2 4
 1
Note that in this case, X can also be considered as binomial with X ~ B  3, 
 2
1 3 1 1 3
Using the above formula, E( X )  np  3   and Var( X )  npq  3    . Thus verified.
2 2 2 2 4
Worked Example 9:
A box contains 2 red balls out of a total of 7. A ball is drawn randomly, its colour noted, the ball replaced
and the box shaken. If 50 balls are drawn in this manner,
(i) find the expected number of red balls drawn,  , and the standard deviation,  ,
(ii) find P(     X     ).
Solution:
50 that are red
Let X be the random variable denoting the number of balls out of _____________________.
X ~ B  50 , 2 
7
 2  100
(i) Expected number of red balls drawn  E  X   np  50   
7 7
 2  5  500
Var  X   np 1  p   50    
 7  7  49
500 10 5
  Var  X   
49 7
Page | 134
 2 10 5 2 10 5 
(ii) P(     X     )  P 14   X  14  
 7 7 7 7 
 P 11.09...  X  17.48...
 P 12  X  17 
 P  X  17   P  X  11
 0.650  to 3 s.f.
7 The Most Likely Value (The Mode)
Recall from ‘O’ Level E. Math, that the mode is the observation with the highest frequency in the
histogram.
In H2 Mathematics, this translates to the mode being the value(s) of X that is most likely to occur,
i.e. the value(s) of X with the highest probability.
To find the mode of the binomial distribution, we need to calculate the probabilities of
P  X  x  for all x values and find the value of X with the highest probability.
Worked Example 10:

Of the inhabitants of a certain African village with a large population, 80% are known to have a
particular eye disorder.
(i) If 12 people are waiting to see the nurse, what is the most likely number of them having the eye
disorder?
(ii) If 19 people are waiting to see the nurse, what is the most likely number(s) of them having the
eye disorder?
Solution:
(i) 12 with
Let X be the random variable denoting the number of people out of _______________
________________________________.
the eye disorder
X ~ B  12 , 0.8 
Using G.C. command ‘binompdf’ to determine the mode.

1. In Y1 , key in
binompdf (12, 0.8, X)
Page | 135
From the G.C.,

x P X  x
9 0.23622
10 0.28347
11 0.20616
 There are most likely ________

10 people with the eye disorder.
(ii) Let Y be the random variable denoting the number of people out of _______________
19 with
________________________________.
the eye disorder
Y ~ B  19 , 0.8 
Using G.C. command ‘binompdf’ to determine the mode.

1. In Y1 , key in
binompdf (19, 0.8, X)
From the G.C.,

y P Y  y 
14 0.16365
15 0.2182
16 0.2182
17 0.15402
 There are most likely ______

15 16
and ______people with the eye disorder.
Page | 136
 Remarks: (Self-reading)
(1) Special note on the use of GC. Due to the algorithm of the GC, under some situations the probability
calculated may be different when in fact it is the same. Referring to Worked Example 10(ii) above,
when you move the cursor to the Y1 column to see more decimal places, for X ~ B(19,0.8) ,
P  X  15  0.2181994019466 and
P  X  16   0.2181994019459 i.e. difference in 12th and 13th d.p.
You may refer to the Home Screen to check that the two values are correct up to 10th d.p. in the GC.
P  X  15 19C15 (0.8)15 (0.2)4 3876  0.2

However, using formula    1 i.e. P( X  15)  P( X  16)
P  X  16  19C16 (0.8)16 (0.2)3 969  0.8
Hence, if you see a slight difference in the 12th and 13th decimal place of the probabilities when using
the GC table, you may assume that the probabilities are the same since the purpose is just to get the
mode. Alternatively, you may use the binomial distribution formula to verify that the probabilities are
in fact the same.
Page | 137
SUMMARY Binomial Distribution
n
Definition P(X  x)    p x (1  p )n  x where x  0, 1, 2,..., n
 x
 There is a fixed number of trials.

 Each trial is independent of any other trial.
Characteristics
 Each trial has 2 mutually exclusive possible outcomes: a ‘success’ or a ‘failure’.
 The probability of a success, denoted by p, is constant in each trial.
Let X be the random variable denoting “no. of _____ out of _____”

Notation
X ~ B  n, p 
Expectation ,   np
Variance ,  2  np(1  p)
Standard
Deviation
  np(1  p)
[In MF26]
Page | 138
H2 MATHEMATICS
TOPIC BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION 2020/JC2
DISCUSSION
BASIC LEVEL
1. From past records, the purchases at a fast food outlet show that 63% of customers buy a burger.
This figure is made up of 30% who buy a beef burger, 24% who buy a fish burger and 9% who
buy a chicken burger. No one buys more than one burger.
Find the probability that, in a random sample of 27 customers,
(i) at least 23 customers buy a burger,
(ii) less than 26 customers do not buy a fish burger,
(iii) more than 15 customers buy either a beef or a chicken burger,
(iv) no less than 8 customers do not buy a burger,
(v) exactly 4 customers buy a chicken burger given that fewer than 6 customers buy a
chicken burger.
2. [2009/CJC/II/9]
After the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s report on the structured financial products sold by
financial institutions in Singapore, a survey found that 95% of the respondents would favour
greater consumer protection.
(i) Find the probability that out of 30 respondents, 25 of them would favour greater
consumer protection.
(ii) Find the least number of respondents surveyed such that the probability that at least 40 of
them would favour greater consumer protection exceeds 0.980.
3. The random variable X ~ B 16, p  where p  0.5 . If the variance of X is 3.36, find the value
of p. Find also the probability that X is less than the mean.
INTERMEDIATE LEVEL
4. [2007/ACJC/Mid-year/3(modified)]
On average, 30% of the patients having a certain medical treatment experience severe headache.
A random sample of 12 patients is given the treatment.
(i) Write down the distribution of the number of patients who experience severe headache,
and state an assumption for the choice of the distribution.
(ii) Find the probability that fewer than 3 patients experience severe headache.
(iii) Five random samples of 12 patients are given the treatment. Find the probability that two
of these five samples have fewer than 3 patients who experience severe headache.
5. Teams of 8 people enter a shooting competition. Each member of a team takes a shot at the
target. The number of points scored by a team is obtained by 2x where x is the number of shots
that hit the target. For a particular team, each member of the team independently has a probability
of 0.75 of hitting the target.
(i) Find the probability that a randomly chosen team scores more than 6 points.
(ii) Find the number of points that a team is most likely to score.
Page | 139
6. [N11/II/7(i)-(iii)]
When I try to contact (by telephone) any of my friends in the evening, I know that on average the
probability that I succeed is 0.7. On one evening I attempt to contact a fixed number, n , of
different friends. If I do not succeed with a particular friend, I do not attempt to contact that friend
again that evening. The number of friends whom I succeed in contacting is the random variable
R.
(i) State, in the context of this question, two assumptions needed to model R by a binomial
distribution.
(ii) Explain why one of the assumptions stated in part (i) may not hold in this context.
Assume now that these assumptions do in fact hold.
(iii) Given that n  8 , find the probability that R is at least 6.
7. [2009/AJC/II/10(i)]
Customers at a supermarket pay for their purchases either by cash or credit card. The probability
of a randomly chosen customer paying by credit card is 0.3. Find the probability that, on a
randomly chosen day, there are more than 6 customers among the first 20 customers who pay by
credit card and the fifth customer is the second customer who does so.
ADVANCED LEVEL
8. [N81/II/12]
In each batch of manufactured articles the proportion of defective articles is p . From each batch
a random sample of nine is taken and each of the nine articles is examined. If two or more of the
nine articles are found to be defective that batch is rejected; otherwise it is accepted. Prove that
the probability that a batch is accepted is 1  p  1  8 p  .
8
It is decided to modify the sampling scheme so that, when one defective is found in the sample,
a second sample of nine is taken and the batch rejected if this contains any defectives. With this
exception, the original scheme is continued. Find an expression in terms of p for the probability
that a batch is accepted.
For this modified scheme evaluate the average number sampled per manufactured batch over a
large number of batches when p has the value 0.1.
9. [2019 VJC JC2 Prelim 9758/02/Q8]

A bag contains two balls numbered 3, n balls numbered 2 and three balls numbered 1. A player
picks two balls at random from the bag at the same time.
If the difference between the numbers on the two balls is 2, the player receives $6.
If the difference between the numbers on the two balls is 1, the player does not receive or lose
any money.
If the numbers on the 2 balls are the same, the player loses $1.
(i) Show that the largest value of n such that player is expected to receive money from this
game is 8.
For the rest of this question, take the value of n to be 8.
16
(ii) Show that the probability that a player loses money in a game is .
39
Victoria plays this game 50 times.
(iii) Find the probability that she lost money for at least 20 games.
(iv) The probability that Victoria loses money in r games is more than 0.1. Find the set of
values of r.
Page | 140
Answers:
1. (i) 0.0108 (ii) 0.994 (iii) 0.0263 (iv) 0.839 (v) 0.136
2. (i) 0.0124 (ii) 46
3. 0.3; 0.450
4. (ii) 0.253 (iii) 0.267
5. (i) 0.973 (ii) 12
6. (iii) 0.552
7. 0.0598
1  p  1  9 p 1  p 8  ; 12.5
9
8.
 
9. (iii) 0.611 (iv) {19, 20, 21, 22},
REVIEW PROBLEMS
1. [2009/DHS/Prelim/II/7]
(i) In a small plot of land, there are 20 seeds being sown, of which only 4 will germinate. If 5
seeds are selected at random without replacement, find the probability that at least a seed
that germinates would be selected. [3]
(ii) In a huge plot of land where a large number of seeds are sown, 10% of the seeds would
germinate. If 5 seeds are selected at random without replacement, find the probability that
more than a seed that germinates would be selected. [3]
2. [2018/MI/J2/MYE/8]
Eggs produced at a farm are packed in standard boxes. The probability that an egg is broken when
it reaches the market is p. A box is rejected if it has at least two broken eggs.
(i) Explain why the number of broken eggs in a box might not be well modelled by a binomial
distribution, in the context of the question. [1]
Assume now that a Binomial model is in fact valid.

(ii) Given that the mean and variance of the number of broken eggs are 1 and 0.9 respectively,
find p and the number of eggs packed in a box. [2]
(iii) Calculate the probability that a randomly selected box will be rejected. [2]
N boxes are chosen at random.

(iv) Find N, given that the probability that two of the boxes are rejected is 0.0533. [2]
(v) Find the probability that the tenth box is the third box that is rejected. [3]
3. [2018/ACJC/J2/MYE/10 (part)]
“Oishi” candy factory manufactured a large amount of candies daily and their candies are
randomly packed in packets of 10. The candies manufactured come in two shapes: round and
star-shaped. On the average, 15% of the candies manufactured daily in the factory are star-
shaped.
(i) Explain the significance of the phrase ‘a large amount of candies’ in the first sentence of
this question. [1]
(ii) Find the probability that a packet of candies contains at least 2 star-shaped candies.
[1]
The candies are packed into boxes to be delivered to the retailers with 50 packets in each box.
Find in a randomly selected box,
(iii) the expected number of packets that contain at least 2 star-shaped candies, [1]
(iv) the most likely number of packets that contain at least 2 star-shaped candies. [2]
Page | 141
4. [2007/AJC/Prelim/II/8]
A manufacturer produces pens in two colors, red and blue. On average, 35% of the pens produced
are red pens.
(i) Find the probability that in a sample of 10 pens, more than half of them are red pens. [2]
(ii) The manufacturer offers a special price on red pens by selling them in packs of six. Pens
are selected at random to fill each pack. Given that five red pens have been selected, find
the least value of n such that the probability that at most n more pens need to be selected
to complete a pack of 6 red pens is greater than 0.98. [4]
5. [J1984/II/10]
It may be assumed that the dates of birth in a large population are distributed throughout the year
so that the probability of a randomly chosen person’s date of birth being in any particular month
1
is .
12
(a) Find the probability that of 8 people chosen at random, exactly 2 will have birthdays in
January.
(b) Find the probability that of 9 people chosen at random, at least one will have a birthday in
January.
(c) N people are chosen at random. Find the least value of N such that the probability that at
least one will have a birthday in January exceeds 0.9.
6. [2010/DHS/BT2/12a]
Rose and Violet contest each other for the post of President of the Student Council of Floral
Junior College. A pre-election survey indicates that Rose has the support of 45% of the school
population while Violet has the support of the remaining students.
(i) Find the probability that Rose has fewer than 12 supporters in a group of 30 randomly
selected students. [3]
(ii) If the students are asked to queue up to cast their votes one at a time, find the probability
that the 16th student is the 10th student who votes for Violet. [3]
7. Samples, each of 12 articles, are taken at random from a large consignment in which 25% of
articles are defective. Find the number of defective articles which is most likely to occur in a
single sample, and find the probability of obtaining this number. If 100 samples of 12 articles
are to be examined, calculate the number of samples in which you would expect to find 4 or more
defective articles.
8. [2013/DHS/Prelim/II/10b (modified)]
One question in a survey is as follows:
“Do you use Facebook during office hours at least once a day? Yes or No?”
It is known that on average, 7 out of 9 staff members answered “yes” to the above question.
For a random sample of 60 staff members,
(i) find the standard deviation of the number of staff members who answer “yes”, [1]
(ii) find the probability that the number of staff members who answer “yes” exceeds the mean,
[3]
(iii) find the most probable number of staff members who answer “yes”, [2]
(iv) state, with a reason, if the above answers are valid if the total number of staff members in
the company is small. [1]
Page | 142
9. [2013/HCI/Prelim/II/6 (modified)]
In a carton of apples, a sample of 8 apples is taken and examined for spoilt apples.
(i) State, in context, an assumption for the number of spoilt apples in the sample to be
modelled by a binomial distribution. [1]
The number of spoilt apples in a random sample of size 8 may be modelled by the distribution
B  8, p  . If at least 2 apples in a sample are found to be spoilt, the carton is rejected. It is known
that the probability of a carton being rejected is 0.04 .
(ii) Write down an equation satisfied by p and find the value of p . [3]
(iii) 60 cartons of apples are loaded onto a lorry. Find the probability that more than 56 cartons
loaded onto the lorry are not rejected. [3]
10. [2017/TJC/MYE/II/5]
Temasek Bakery produces a large number of “lucky” cookies during the festive season. p% of
these cookies contains a winning slip. The cookies are sold by packets. Each packet consists of
8 randomly chosen cookies and the mean number of cookies with a winning slip per packet is
3.2 .
(i) Find the probability that a randomly chosen packet contains at most 4 cookies with a
winning slip. [2]
(ii) Anand buys 12 packets of cookies. Find the probability that there are more than 10 packets
that contain at most 4 cookies with a winning slip. [2]
(iii) Beng decides to buy n packets of cookies. Find the least value of n such that the probability
that there is at least one packet that contain exactly 4 cookies with a winning slip is more
than 0.90. [4]
11. [2017/ACJC/MYE/I/8]
The random variable X is the number of successes in n independent trials of an experiment in
which the probability of a success at any trial is p.
p (n  k  1) p
Denoting P( X  k ) by pk , it is given that k  , k  1, 2, ..., n.
pk 1 k (1  p )
A distribution is said to be bimodal if it has two modes.
Find the least value of n, and the corresponding modes of X, given that X is bimodal and that
18
p . [3]
25
12. [2017/MI/MYE/P2/Q5]
Ken participates in archery games, and the probability that he hits the bull’s eye for each attempt
is 0.73. For each game, he is given a set of 10 arrows. The number of times he hits the bull’s eye
in a game is denoted by X.
(i) Calculate the probability that Ken hits the bull’s eye at most 7 times in a game. [1]
(ii) Find the probability that Ken hits the first bull’s eye on his eighth arrow. [2]
Before the start of a particular game, Ken breaks his pair of glasses and the probability that he
hits the bull’s eye for each attempt is now p.
(iii) He starts a new game and the probability of him hitting the bull’s eye 8 times is now 0.12.
Find the possible values of p. [2]
State, with a reason, which value of p found is more appropriate in this case. [1]
Page | 143
13. The probability that a particular make of light bulb is faulty is 0.2. The light bulbs are packed in
boxes of 12.
(a) Find the probability that in a certain box, there are
(i) no faulty light bulbs (ii) more than 3 faulty light bulbs
(b) A buyer accepts a consignment of 50 boxes, if , when he chooses two boxes at random, he
finds that they contain no more than one faulty light bulb altogether. Find the probability
that he will accept the consignment.
14. [2017/JJC/Prelim/II/9]
A jar contains 5 identical balls numbered 1 to 5. A fixed number, n, of balls are selected and the
number of balls with an even score is denoted by X.
(i) Explain how the balls should be selected in order for X to be well modelled by a binomial
distribution. [2]
 2
Assume now that X has the distribution B  n,  .
 5
(ii) Given that n  10 , find P  X  4  . [2]
(iii) Given that the mean of X is 4.8, find n. [2]
(iv) Given that P(X = 0 or 1) < 0.01, write down an inequality for n and find the least value of n.
[3]
Shawn and Arvind take turns to draw one ball from the jar at random. The first person who draws
a ball with an even score wins the game. Shawn draws first.
3
(v) Show that the probability that Shawn wins the game is if the selection of balls is done
5
without replacement. [2]
(vi) Find the probability that Shawn wins the game if the selection of balls is done with
replacement. [2]
15. [2017/MJC/MYE/I/9]
An airline company sold 105 tickets for a particular flight. Based on past experience, 8% of
passengers do not turn up for the flight. Let X be the number of passengers who do not turn up
for that flight.
(i) State, in context, two assumptions needed for X to be well modelled by a binomial
distribution. [2]
(ii) Find the probability that fewer than 5 do not turn up for the flight. [2]
“Overbooking” occurs when there are more passengers who turn up than the number of seats
available for the flight. When this happens, the airline will re-accommodate the excess
passengers, that is, arrangements will be made for them to take another flight.
(iii) It is given that the particular flight has only 100 seats. Find the probability that at least 3
passengers have to be re-accommodated given that “overbooking” has occurred. [3]
Page | 144
16. [2018/NJC/J2/MYE/4]
A harvester packs peaches in boxes of m peaches each. On average, 100 p % of the peaches are
rotten. The total number of rotten peaches in 4 randomly selected boxes has a mean of 3 and
variance of 2.91. A box is rejected if there are at least 2 rotten peaches in the box.
(i) State, in context, two assumptions needed for the number of rotten peaches in a box to be
well modelled by a binomial distribution. [2]
(ii) Find m and p. Hence, show that the probability that a box of peaches is rejected is
approximately 0.172. [4]
(iii) Ten boxes of peaches are selected at random for a quality check. Find the probability that
the last box to be selected is the third one to be rejected. [2]
(iv) It is given that the probability that fewer than 3 out of n randomly chosen boxes of peaches
are rejected is less than 0.1. Write down an inequality involving n and find the least
possible value of n. (You do not need to simplify your inequality.) [3]
Answers:
232
1. (i) (ii) 0.08146
323
2. (i) (ii) 10 (iii) 0.264 (iv) 20 (v) 0.0775
3. (i) - (ii) 0.456 (iii) 22.8 (iv) 23
4. (i) 0.0949  3s.f  (ii) 10
5. (a) 0.115  3s.f  (b) 0.543  3s.f  (c) 27
6. (i) 0.233  3s.f  (ii) 0.105  3s.f 
7. Mode is 3, P  X  3  0.258  3 s.f  ; 0.351 3s.f  ; 35.1 3s.f 
280
8. (i) (ii) 0.532 (3s.f) (iii) 47
27
9. (ii) (1  p)8  8 p(1  p)7  0.96 ; 0.0410  3s.f  (iii) 0.781 3s.f 
10. (i) 0.826 (3 s.f) (ii) 0.357 (3 s.f) (iii) 9
11. 24; 17 and 18
12. (i) 0.534 (ii) 7.64  105 (3 sf) (iii) 0.599 or 0.931 (3 s.f)
13. (a)(i) 0.0687  3s.f  (a)(ii) 0.205  3s.f  (b) 0.0331 3s.f 
5
14. (ii) 0.618 (3 s.f) (iii) 12 (iv) 14 (v)
8
15. (ii) 0.0706 (3 s.f) (iii) 0.115 (3 s.f)
16. (i) - (ii) m = 25, p = 0.03, 0.172 (iii) 0.0489 (iv) 30
Reference:
1. Walpole, R.E et al. (2012). Probability & Statistics for Engineers & Scientists. (9th ed.).: Prentice
Hall.
Page | 145

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CJC MATHEMATICS DEPARTMENT

2020 JC2 H2 MATHEMATICS (9758)

 state binomial distribution B  n, p  as an example of a discrete probability distribution,

1 Introduction to Binomial Distribution

2 Definition of Binomial Distribution

Let X denote the ‘number of successes in n independent trials of an experiment’.

where p is the probability of a success and 1  p is the probability of a failure.

n n  n  n

3 Notation for a Binomial Distribution

probability of success  p , we may write X ~ B  n, p 

It reads “X follows a binomial distribution with parameters n and p”.

4 Characteristics of a Binomial Distribution

A random variable follows a binomial distribution if it satisfies the characteristics below:

5 Probabilities involving Binomial Distribution

(i) Method 1: Using G.C. command “binompdf”

Press Screen Display Remarks

2. Press 2ND, VARS.

3. Select binompdf binompdf stands for

4. Enter the values as required.

Method 2: Using Formula

(ii) Method 1: Using G.C. command “binomcdf”

Press Screen Display Remarks

2. Select binomcdf binomcdf stands for

3. Enter the values as required.

Method 2: Using Formula

 12 C 0  0.15   0.85   12 C1  0.15   0.85   12 C 2  0.15   0.85   12 C3  0.15   0.85 

(iii) P  more than 4 people are left-handed 

(iv) P  at least 7 people are not left-handed 

(v) P  between 3 and 9 left-handed people 

Method 1: Using G.C. to determine n , given that P  X  0   0.5

Press Screen Display Remarks

2. Press 2ND, VARS.

4. Enter the values as required.

6. Press 2ND, GRAPH.

From the table,

 Largest sample size is 68 .

Method 2: Using Formula

 Largest sample size is ____________.

Problem Solving Tip:

Press Screen Display Remarks

2. Press 2ND, GRAPH.

Press Screen Display Remarks

4. Press 2ND, GRAPH.

Worked Example 5: (Self-Reading)

Using G.C. to determine n , given that P  X  11  0.65

2. Press 2ND, GRAPH.

From the table,

 Smallest sample size is 53 .

Using G.C. to solve the inequality P  X  r  1  0.85

2. Press 2ND, GRAPH.

From the table,

Press Screen Display Remarks

3. Enter the values as required.

The GC returns the

The GC returns the

Since from GC, P  X  a   0.85  a  3

Hence, least value of r is 4.

X ~ B  20 , p  In this case, can you rearrange

Using G.C. to determine p , given that 1  P  X  1  0.06

2. Adjust the window to

3. Find the intersection between the The point of

Using GC, p  0.0200  to 3s.f 

Let X be the random variable denoting “no. of _ out of _”