Lec+9+and+10+Gsr+and+Tsr Ee556

Syed Babar Ali
School of Science and Engineering
Power System Planning – EE 556

Fall 2019
Fiaz A. Chaudhry, Ph.D., P.Eng.
Lecture 9 - Generation System Reliability
Generation System Reliability
Outline
 System Reliability
 Reliability Indices
 Factors in Generating System Reliability
 Capacity Outage Probability
 Value of Reliability
System Reliability
 Overall ability of the system to perform its functions is reliability
 Two basic aspects of power system reliability:
 Adequacy: relates to the existence of sufficient facilities within the system to
satisfy the customer load demand or system operational constraints
 Security: relates to the ability of the system to respond to dynamic or
transient disturbances arising within the system. Security is therefore
associated with the response of the system to whatever perturbations it is
subject to.
Reliability Indices
Reliability indices are the parameters that measure a particular
aspect of reliability of an electrical system
Grouped into two broad categories:
Deterministic Indices:
 Reflect assumed conditions. These indices are more limited and
their calculation is simple and required little data. These are
benchmarked against historical experience
Probabilistic Indices:
 Consider the uncertainty inherent in power system operation.
These indices evaluate the system alternatives by taking into
consideration the parameters that influence reliability, such as
capacities of generating units and forced outage rate of units
Reliability Indices
Twelve reliability indices are used to describe generation system
reliability. The first three are deterministic indices and the remaining
nine are probabilistic indices
1. Reserve Margin
 It is a measure of generating capacity available above the amount required
to meet the system load
 It is the difference between the total available system capacity and the
annual peak system load, divided by the peak system load. It is expressed as
a percentage of annual peak load. For example, a system with a total
installed generating capacity of 11500 MW and experience a peak load of
10000 MW, has a reserve margin of 15%
Reliability Indices
2. Largest Unit (LU)
 The LU method compares the total installed generating capacity less the
annual peak load, with the largest installed units on the system.
 It explicitly recognize the impact of a loss of single generating unit only.
 For example, a reserve capacity of 1500 MW at the time of peak load (i.e.
available capacity minus peak load) for a system with two large 1000
MW(e) units would be expressed as having the largest unit plus half of the
second 1000 MW(e) unit.
Reliability Indices
3. Dry Year
 Reliability in hydro-dominated system is defined in terms of required

supply during a year with poor hydroelectric availability.
 This is not an index but is rather a criterion.
 The driest year of the available statistical information or a year related to

a certain cumulative probability.
 Reservoir operational constraints may be set as an criterion for a certain
period in a year.
Reliability Indices
4. Loss of Load Probability (LOLP)
 It is a reliability index that indicates the probability that some portion of

the load will not be satisfied by the available generating capacity.
 It is the proportion of days per year or hours per year. It is expressed as a

ratio of time:; for example 0.1 days per year equals a probability of
0.000274 (0.1/365)
 LOLP represents an actual duration of outages rather than the probability

of an outage occurring.
 Calculation of annual LOLP involves hourly load data rather than some
daily peak loads.
 LOLP is expressed as a probability of failure.
Reliability Indices
5. Loss of Load Expectation(LOLE)
 It is the expected number of days (or hours) per year in which insufficient
generating capacity is available to serve the daily (or hourly) peak load.
LOLE = LOLP * T
 T = 365 days (if the load model is an annual continuous load curve with
day maximum load; the LOLE unit is in days per year)
 T = 8760 hours (if the load model is an hourly load curve; the LOLE unit is
in hours per year)
Reliability Indices
6. Probability of Positive Margin (POPM)
 It uses the loss of load probability calculation for only one hour, the peak
hour of the year.
 POPM is expressed as probability of success.
 For example, a system with a failure probability (LOLP) of 0.005 has a

success probability (POPM) of 0.995 (1.0 minus 0.005)
Reliability Indices
7. Expected Unserved Energy (EUE)
 It measures the expected amount of energy which will not be supplied per
year because of generating capacity deficiencies.
 It is expressed in kWh.
 It is widely used in Europe, it is one of the most widely used generation

reliability performance.
Reliability Indices
8. Loss of Energy Probability (LOEP)
 It is defined as the ratio of expected amount of unserved energy due to

deficiencies in the available generating capacity , to the total energy
required for the system.
 It is mathematically related to the EUE.

Reliability Indices
9. Expected Loss of Load (XLOL)
 It indicates the expected magnitude of the unsupplied load (MW), during a

failure.
 It is equivalent to expected capacity deficiency (EUE) divided by the

probability of capacity deficiency (LOLP).
 XLOL is sometimes called the conditional expected load not supplied.
Reliability Indices
10. Emergency Operating Procedure Expectation (EOPE)
 LOLP index gives the expected number of days per year on which various
emergency operating procedures such as selective load shedding would be
required due to insufficient available generating capacity.
 The emergency operating procedures represent utility efforts to forestall
greater problems.
 In the hierarchy of utility emergency operating procedures, there are a

number of actions which can be taken before any consumer are actually
interrupted.
Reliability Indices
11. Frequency and Duration of Failures to Meet the Load
(F & D)
 The frequency of the generating capacity shortage events is the expected

number of events per year.
 The duration is the expected length of the capacity shortage periods when
they occur.
 Frequency and duration indices are always calculated using hourly load
information.
F × D = LOLP
Reliability Indices
12. Effective Load-carrying Capability (ELCC)
 It is an index designed to measure the worth of generating unit to a utility
system in terms of reliability.
 The ELCC concept is illustrated in Figure below which plots annual LOLP
vs the annual peak load for a specific generation system both before and
after a new unit is added.
Factors Affecting
Generating System Reliability
These includes:
 Generating unit characteristics

 System characteristics
 Utility measures to mitigate outage consequences
Factors Affecting
 Generating Unit Characteristics
 Key parameters include unit size and factors that determine unit
availabilities.
 Unit availabilities are described in terms of three elements: forced
outage rates, repair times and scheduled maintenance.
1. Forced Outage Rate:
 All real generating units have some probability of unscheduled failures.
Forced outage rates tend to range between 3% and 25% depend upon
generating technology, unit size and the age of plant.
 Unit size directly influence forced outage rates on overall system
reliability.
Factors Affecting
2. Repair Times:
 Expected repair times for unscheduled outages are important for
reliability calculations.
 Estimates of outage frequency and duration depend upon the time

required to return a unit to service after an unplanned outage.
Factors Affecting
3. Scheduled Maintenance:
 Planned maintenance requirements for generating units are important
in system reliability. Typical requirements range from a few days for
small units to eight or ten weeks for large units.
 Once initiated, a unit is not available for service until completion. The
remaining units must be capable of satisfying loads and provide backup
for unscheduled outages.
 Routine maintenance usually scheduled during periods of lowest
system loads.
Factors Affecting
 System Characteristics:
The system characteristics that affect overall reliability are as
follows:
 Planned maintenance schedule
 Fuel mix
 Spinning reserves
 Load-following capability
 Inter-ties
Factors Affecting
Planned Maintenance Schedule
 Maintenance requirements must be carefully scheduled so as to minimize
the impact on reliability and production cost.
 For thermal units, if there are major seasonal peaks, avoid maintenance
during those times in order to have as many units available as possible.
 For largest thermal units, it is desired to maintain them when they are least
needed.
 Maintenance of hydroelectric units is typically scheduled for high-water

periods.
Factors Affecting
Fuel Mix
 The plant mix of a system affects reliability to the extent that different
generating technologies may have different forced outage rates and
maintenance requirements, even between units of similar sizes.
 Two systems with the same amount of installed capacity and loads can have
very different reliability characteristics if the mix of technologies differs
Significantly.
Factors Affecting
Spinning Reserve
 Spinning reserve criterion specifies the amount of bake up generating
capacity kept in readiness for instant dispatch in the event of system
emergencies.
 Chronological simulations are required to determine the effects on system

reliability.
 The higher the bake up the more likely the loads will be satisfied.
Factors Affecting
Load –following Capability
It refers to the speed at which the power output of units can be adjusted in
response to changing loads.
 It is an operational parameter that affect system reliability.
 The greater the amount of load-following capability, the more likely that
loads will be satisfied.
Factors Affecting
Inter-tie capability
 When two or more utilities are interconnected through power lines that
allow power transfer to take place, the capacity of such links is referred to
as inter-tie capacity.
 It reduces the probability that loads will exceed the total available capacity.
 Emergency conditions are more likely to develop during peak loads, it is

important to recognize that inter-tie capacity may be least available during
these periods.
Factors Affecting
 Utility Measures to Mitigate Outage Consequences
Utilities can undertake some measures to minimize the effects of
different types of outages that a generating unit may experience.
 Outages have been classified as follows:

1. Scheduled outages:
 It is planned well in advance of the time of shutdown.
 The schedule is prepared by examining system reliability, expected
production cost and refueling needs for the nuclear units.
Factors Affecting
2. Unscheduled outages
 This category includes forced outages, in which the generating unit
must be shut down for repair after some failure occurred.
3. Short and intermediate-term shutdowns

 This category last for one month to one year in duration, longer than
the typical forced outages.
 Shutdown could results from events such as severe forced outage,
refueling of a nuclear unit, an order to replace equipment.
Factors Affecting
4. Long-term shutdowns
 They have the duration of more than one year.
 Outages of more than one year could result for major repairs.
5. Permanent shutdown
 It could result from decisions by utilities that retirement is the most
economic alternative.
Factors Affecting
6. Derating
 Derating of a unit generating capacity happens as a result of safety
related analysis, could result from operational difficulties.
7. Delay in commercial operation date (COD)

 It can be caused by a regulatory agency because of a number of
circumstances affecting the utility, such as construction delays, financial
difficulties.
Factors Affecting
 Mitigation Strategies
If a generating unit becomes unavailable, utilities choose appropriate
options, depending upon length of the expected outage and
circumstances.
 If outage is of relatively short duration, then emergency operating
procedures implemented.
 If outage is of relatively long duration, number of additional options
become available.
Capacity Outage Probability
Individual Reliability
 A capacity table is simply a probabilistic description of the possible
capacity states of the system being evaluated. The simplest case is
that of a single unit system, where there are two possible capacity
states: 0 and C, where C is the maximum capacity of the unit.
Capacity Probability
C A
0 U
 We may also describe this system in terms of capacity outage

states.
Outage Capacity Probability

0 A
C U
Single Unit System
Two Unit System
 Now consider a two unit system, with both units of capacity C.
Outage Capacity Probability

0 A^2
C AU
C UA
2C U^2
Multiple Unit System
(A+U)N
Where A = Probability of Availability
U = Probability of Unavailability
N = number of units
For instance, if N=4 then,
(A+U)4 = A4 + 4A3U + 6A2U2 +4AU3 + U4
if N=5 then,
(A+U)5 = A5+5A4U+10A3U2+10A2U3+5AU4+U5
Two-state Model: Cumulative Reliability
The cumulative probability of a particular capacity outage state of X
MW after a unit of capacity C MW and forced outage rate U added is
given by
Where P’(X) and P(X) denote the cumulative probabilities of the

capacity outage state of X MW before and after the unit is added.
P’(X)=1.0 when X<=0;
P’(X)=0, Otherwise.
C = capacity outage of state for the unit being added
Example:
Assume a system containing five 40 MW units each with a forced
outage rate of 0.10. The capacity outage probability table is shown
below.
Step 1: Add the first unit
 P(0)=(1-0.1)(1.0)+(0.1)(1.0)=1.0
 P(40)=(1-0.1)(0)+(0.1)(1.0)=0.1
Step 2: Add the second unit
 P(0)=(1.0-0.1)(1.0)+(0.1)(1.0)=1.0
 P(40)=(1.0-0.1)(0.1)+(0.1)(1.0)=0.19
 P(80)=(1.0-0.1)(0)+(0.1)(0.1)=0.01
Example: Continued
Step 3: Add the third unit
 P(0)=(1.0-0.1)(1.0)+(0.1)(1.0)=1.0
 P(40)=(1.0-0.1)(0.19)+(0.1)(1.0)=0.271
 P(80)=(1.0-0.1)(0.01)+(0.1)(0.19)=0.028
 P(120)=(1.0-0.1)(0)+(0.1)(0.01)=0.001
Step 4: Add the fourth unit
 P(0)=(1.0-0.1)(1.0)+(0.1)(1.0)=1.0
 P(40)=(1.0-0.1)(0.271)+(0.1)(1.0)=0.3439
 P(80)=(1.0-0.1)(0.028)+(0.1)(0.271)=0.0523
 P(120)=(1.0-0.1)(0.001)+(0.1)(0.028)=0.0037
 P(160)=(1.0-0.1)(0)+(0.1)(0.001)=0.0001
Example: Continued
Step 5: Add the fifth unit
 P(0)=(1.0-0.1)(1.0)+(0.1)(1.0)=1.0
 P(40)=(1.0-0.1)(0.3439)+(0.1)(1.0)=0.40951
 P(80)=(1.0-0.1)(0.0523)+(0.1)(0.3439)=0.08146
 P(120)=(1.0-0.1)(0.0037)+(0.1)(0.0523)=0.00856
 P(160)=(1.0-0.1)(0.0001)+(0.1)(0.0037)=0.00046
 P(200)=(1.0-0.1)(0)+(0.1)(0.0001)=0.00001
Example: Capacity Outage Probability Table
Loss of Load Probability (LOLP)
 Using Individual Probability
 Using Cumulative Probability
• where n is the total number of capacity outage states

• pk is the individual probability of the capacity outage state
• Pk is the cumulative probability of the capacity outage state
• tk is the number of time when there is a loss of load
LOLP and LOLE Calculations
 A system contains five 40 MW units each with a forced outage rate of
0.10. The system peak load is 160 MW. The lowest daily peak is 80 MW
and the lowest hourly load is 64 MW. Assume the two load duration
curves as straight lines. Calculate the LOLE in days per year and hours per
year
Time periods during which loss of load occurs

Value of Reliability
 A fundamental component in an optimal level of electric service
reliability is the value customers place on reliable electric services.
 Value is the total unit price that a consumer would pay for
electrical energy at a given level of reliability.
 For the discussion of service reliability and customer value

functions, it is convenient to classify customers based on their
general electricity use characteristics.
A reasonable disaggregation might include the following six groups:
 Large manufacturers
 Small manufacturers
 Commercial
 Institutional
 Agricultural
 Residential.
 Larger industrial customers, with continual production activities, have the
most uniform demand for electric energy. Smaller customers who may run
only two shifts per day with no weekend production have lower demands
during evenings and weekends, although they exhibit a fairly constant
demand during production hours.
 Commercial and institutional demand curves are relatively high but

constant during the daylight hours of the normal business day and fall off
during the night hours.
 Demand, particularly by residential customers, is very strongly dependent

on seasonal weather variations and also exhibits very pronounced daily
peak demands during the early morning and early evening.
Lecture 10 - Electric System Reliability
Electric System Reliability
Purpose
 The purpose is to assess performance of transmission and
distribution supply networks and present a set of terms and
definitions which can be used to:
◦ foster uniformity in the development of transmission and distribution service
reliability indices,
◦ identify factors (causes) that affect the indices
◦ aid in consistent reporting practices among utilities.
 The reliability indices provide guidance and tools for internal and
external comparisons.
Factors affecting index calculations
Definitions:
 Connected load: Connected transformer kVA, peak load, or metered demand
(to be clearly specified when reporting) on the circuit or portion of circuit that is
interrupted.
 Customer: A metered electrical service point for which an active bill account is
established at a specific location.
 Customer Count: The number of customers either served or interrupted

depending on usage.
 Distribution system: That portion of an electric system that delivers electric

energy from transformation points on the transmission system to the customer.
 Forced outage: The state of a component when it is not available to perform its
intended function due to an unplanned event directly associated with that
component.
 Interrupting Device: An interrupting device is a device whose purpose is to

interrupt the flow of power, usually in response to a fault.
 Interruption: The loss of service to one or more customers connected to the

distribution portion of the system.
 Interruption duration: The time period from the initiation of an interruption

to a customer until service has been restored to that customer.
 Lockout: Refers to the final operation of a recloser or circuit breaker in an attempt

to isolate a persistent fault, or to the state where all automatic reclosing has
stopped.
 Loss of service: A complete loss of voltage on at least one normally energized
conductor to one or more customers.
 Major event day: A day in which the daily system SAIDI exceeds a threshold
value.
 Momentary interruption: A single operation of an interrupting device that

results in a voltage zero.
 Planned Interruption: A loss of electric power that results when a component

is deliberately taken out of service at a selected time, usually for the purposes of
construction, maintenance, or repair.
 Sustained interruption: Any interruption not classified as a part of a

momentary event.That is, any interruption that lasts more than 5 minutes.
Transmission System Reliability
Reliability Assessment
A framework for a comprehensive transmission reliability assessment
considers a variety of issues, including:
 Overall Transmission Assessment statement
 Transmission additions and backbone project description
 Transfer capability results
 Thermal Issues
 Voltage Issues
 Dynamic Stability Issues
 Under Frequency Load Shedding
 Short Circuit Levels

Transmission System Reliability
Reliability Assessment
There are primarily two metrics that are used to track the impact of
transmission system disturbances on customers.
 Loss of Generation (LOG) :

A transmission disturbance that results in an on-line generator tripping off-line.
LOG events impact system reliability directly through transmission impact and also
contingency effects.
 Loss of Supply (LOS):

When any transmission or distribution customers’ supply of electricity is
interrupted due to a sustained transmission disturbance
Transmission System Reliability Indices
Transmission reliability is determined by two measures in this report:

 Transmission Sustained Average Interruption Frequency Index (T-SAIFI)
 Transmission Sustained Average Interruption Duration Index (T-SAIDI).
 T-SAIFI
T-SAIFI: Average Number of Interruptions Experienced in a Year
 A total of 103 multi-circuit interruption events occurred on 355 circuits,

where a high number of events occurred in April, June, August, and
October.
 T-SAIFI = 0.29
 In contrast to the frequency measure results, the predominant causes from

historical data were Equipment Failure, Foreign Interference, and Weather.
 Contribution from Foreign Interference, Human Factor, and Other causes

decreased.
 Common Mode Events

A Common Mode event occurs when a single primary cause
results in more than one major component outage and the
outages are not consequences of each other.
 Coincident Events
A Coincident Event occurs when the network design is
compromised by a planned equipment outage or due to abnormal
configuration.
Historical Trend of T-SAIFI
 The 2009 T-SAIFI is 0.29 and is the second highest in the study period, only
second to the value in 2006. The 1999 to 2008 period had an average T-
SAIFI of 0.23 and a one half standard deviation of 0.03, where the upper
threshold is 0.26. The 2009 value exceeded the historical average by 0.04,
and thus the upper threshold used to accommodate natural variation in
performance results.
In 2009, the top three causes for contributing to T-SAIFI are Equipment Failure, Foreign
Interference, and Weather. It is notable that contribution to T-SAIFI due to Unknown
events is the considerably large, at 14% in 2009 and 17% from historical data.
T-SAIDI: Average Duration of Interruptions Experienced in a Year
 The 2009 T-SAIDI value is 19.7 min.
 An event is considered to be a Significant Event if its SAIDI impact is greater than or

equal to 0.4 min. The predominant months contributing to T-SAIDI for Significant
Events were January,April, and June.
 Non-Significant events were April, May, and August.

Historical Trend of T-SAIDI
 The 2009 T-SAIDI value of 19.7 min is the second highest in comparison to
previous years’ T-SAIDI values from 1999 to 2009.
 The 2009 value has exceeded the upper band threshold. The average T-SAIDI for
1999 to 2008 is 10.4 min.
Historical Trend of T-SAIDI
 The Unknown category was the second smallest contributor at 6%.
 In 2009, contribution to T-SAIDI from Unknown events nearly doubled, to 11.6%

and is the third largest contributor to the measure in 2009.
Delivery Point Performance
A Delivery Point is defined as a point of connection between a transmitter’s
transmission facilities and a customer’s facilities.
 This Customer Delivery Point Performance Report provides analysis of

performance information on transmission system load delivery points
based on the Customer Delivery Point Performance Standard (CDPPS).
 The Transmission System Code (TSC) requires transmitters to develop

performance standards at the customer delivery point (CDPP) level.
 The approved CDPP Standards apply to all existing transmission load

customers
 For new or expanding customer loads, the delivery point performance

requirements will be specified and paid by the customer based on their
connection needs and negotiated as part of the connection cost recovery
agreement.
Delivery Point Reliability Standards
The approved CDPP Standards consist of two components:

 Group CDPP Standards
Relate the reliability of supply to the size of load being served at
the delivery point.
 Individual CDPP Standards
Maintain a customer’s individual historical delivery point
performance.
Triggers for each component are used to identify performance to
initiate technical and financial evaluations to determine the root cause
of unreliability and remedial action required to improve reliability.
 Group CDPP Standards

CDPP Standards and the associated triggers are based on the size of load being served.
For this purpose, the load is the delivery point’s total average station gross load as
measured in megawatts. For this purpose, the total 3 year average of Station load is
used.
 Individual CDPP Standards

The CDPP Standards are intended to maintain the historical reliability performance
levels at each customer delivery point. This is done by identifying customer delivery
points with deteriorating trends in reliability performance, irrespective of whether they
are satisfactory performers under the Group CDPP Standards.
The individual CDPP standard compares a DP’s most recent 2-year performance
against its own historical performance.
Distribution System Reliability Indices
These basic factors specify the data needed to calculate the indices. i denotes
an interruption event
ri = Restoration Time for each Interruption Event
CI = Customers Interrupted
CMI = Customer Minutes Interrupted
E = Events
T = Total
IMi = Number of Momentary Interruptions
IME = Number of Momentary Interruption Events
Ni = Number of Interrupted Customers for each Sustained Interruption event during

the Reporting Period
Nmi = Number of Interrupted Customers for each Momentary Interruption event
during the Reporting Period
NT = Total Number of Customers Served for the Areas

Li = Connected kVA Load Interrupted for each Interruption Event
LT = Total connected kVA Load Served

CN = Total Number of Customers who have Experienced a Sustained Interruption
CNT(k>n) = Total Number of Customers who have Experienced more than n
Sustained Interruptions and Momentary Interruption Events during the Reporting
Period.
k = Number of Interruptions Experienced by an Individual Customer in the Reporting

Period
TMED = Major event day identification threshold value.

 Sustained Interruption Indices:

1. System average interruption frequency index(SAIFI)
 This indicates how often the average customer experiences a
sustained interruption over a predefined period of time. \
 Σ = Summation function.
 Ni = Total number of customers interrupted.
 NT = Total number of customers served.


2. System average interruption duration index (SAIDI)
 This index indicates the total duration of interruption for the average
customer during a predefined period of time. It is commonly
measured in customer minutes or customer hours of interruption.
Σ = Sum
ri = Restoration time, minutes

Ni = Total number of customers interrupted
NT = Total number of customers served


3. Customer average interruption duration index (CAIDI)
 This index represents the average time required to restore service.
ri = Restoration time, minutes


4. Customer total average interruption duration index(CTAIDI)
 This index represents the total average time in the reporting period
that customers who actually experienced an interruption were
without power. This index is a hybrid of CAIDI and is similarly
calculated except that those customers with multiple interruptions
are counted only once.


5. Customer average interruption frequency index (CAIFI)
 This index gives the average frequency of sustained interruptions for
those customers experiencing sustained interruptions. The customer
is counted once regardless of the number of times interrupted.


6. Average service availability index (ASAI)
 The average service availability index represents the fraction of time
(often in percentage) that a customer has received power during the
defined reporting period.

7. Customers experiencing multiple interruptions (CEMIn)
 This index indicates the ratio of individual customers experiencing
more than n sustained interruptions to the total number of customers
served.
CN(k>n) = Total Number of Customers who have Experienced more than n

Sustained Interruptions during the Reporting Period.
NT = Total number of customers served

 Load Based Indices:

1. Average system interruption frequency index (ASIFI)
 The calculation of this index is based on load rather than customers
affected. ASIFI is sometimes used to measure distribution performance
in areas that serve relatively few customers having relatively large
concentrations of load, predominantly industrial/commercial
customers.

 Load Based Indices:

2. Average system interruption duration index (ASIDI)
 The calculation of this index is based on load rather than customers
affected.
ri = Restoration Time for each Interruption Event

 Momentary Indices:
1. Momentary average interruption frequency index (MAIFI)
 This index indicates the average frequency of momentary
interruptions.
IMi = Number of Momentary Interruptions

NT = Total Number of Customers Served for the Areas

2. Momentary average interruption event frequency index
(MAIFIE)
 This index indicates the average frequency of momentary interruption
events. This index does not include the events immediately preceding
a lockout.
IME = Number of Momentary Interruption Events

3. Customers experiencing multiple sustained interruption and
momentary interruption events (CEMSMIn)
 This index is the ratio of individual customers experiencing more
than n of both sustained interruptions and momentary
interruption events to the total customers served.
CNT(k>n) = Total Number of Customers who have Experienced more than n

Sustained Interruptions and Momentary Interruption Events during the Reporting
Period
Thank you
Fiaz.Chaudhry@lums.edu.pk
+92 (321) 999-0780

Major Event Day Classification
Beta Method is used to identify MEDs. Its purpose is to allow major events to
be studied separately from daily operation to better reveal trends in daily
operation that would be hidden by the large statistical effect of major events.
 A major event day is a day in which the daily system SAIDI exceeds a
threshold value,TMED.
 In calculating daily system SAIDI, any interruption that spans multiple days
is accrued to the day on which the interruption begins.
The major event day identification threshold value, TMED, is calculated at the
end of each reporting period (typically one year) for use during the next
reporting period as follows:
 Collect values of daily SAIDI for five sequential years ending on the last day of the
last complete reporting period. If fewer than five years of historical data are
available, use all available historical data until five years of historical data are
available.
 Only those days that have a SAIDI/Day value will be used to calculate the TMED (do
not include days that did not have any interruptions).
 Take the natural logarithm (ln) of each daily SAIDI value in the data set.
 Find α (Alpha), the average of the logarithms (also known as the log-average) of the
data set.
 Find β (Beta), the standard deviation of the logarithms (also known as the log-
standard deviation) of the data set.
 Compute the major event day threshold,TMED:
 Any day with daily SAIDI greater than the threshold value TMED that occurs during
the subsequent reporting period is classified as a major event day.
Activities that occur on days classified as major event days should be

separately analyzed and reported.
One month of historical daily SAIDI data is used in the following example to
calculate the Major Event Day threshold TMED. Five years of historical data is
preferable for this method, but printing that many values in this standard is
impractical, so only one month is used to illustrate the concept.
 The value of α, the log-average, is the average of the natural logs, and
equals –0.555 in this case.
 The value of β, the log-standard deviation, is the standard deviation of the

natural logs, and equals 1.90 in this example.
 The value of α + 2.5β is 4.20.
 The threshold value TMED is calculated by e(4.20) and equals 66.69 SAIDI
per day. This value is used to evaluate the future time period (e.g., the next
year).
Table shows SAIDI/day values for the first month of 1994.

 The SAIDI/day on 1/28/94 (237.49) exceeds the example threshold value

(TMED = 66.69), indicating that the distribution system experienced
stresses beyond that normally expected on that day. Therefore, 1/28/94 is
classified as a major event day. The SAIDI/day for all other days was less
than TMED, indicating that normal stresses were experienced on those
days.
Example: Feeder Reliability Assessment
Table shows an excerpt from one utility’s customer information system (CIS) database
for feeder 7075, which serves 2,000 customers with a total load of 4 MW. In this
example, Circuit 7075 constitutes the “system” for which the indices are calculated.
More typically the “system” combines all circuits together in a region or for a whole
company.
 From the Table shown below, it can be seen that there were eight circuit
breaker operations that affected 2000 customers. Each of them
experienced 8 momentary interruptions. There were twelve recloser
operations that caused 750 customers to experience 12 momentary
interruptions. Some of the operations occurred during one reclosing
sequence. To calculate the number of momentary interruption events, only
count the total number of reclosing sequences. In this case there were five
circuit breaker events (records 1, 3, 4, 7, and 9) that affected 2000
customers. Each of them experienced 5 momentary interruption events.
There were six recloser events (records 2, 5, 6, 8, 10 and 11) that affected
750 customers each of them experienced 6 momentary interruption
events.
 Calculation of indices for a system with no major event days

To calculate CTAIDI and CAIFI, the number of customers experiencing a

sustained interruption is required. The total number of customers affected
(CN) for this example can be no more than 2000. Since only a small portion
of the customer information table is shown it is impossible to know CN;
however, it is likely that not all of the 2000 customers on this feeder
experienced an interruption during the year. 1800 will be arbitrarily assumed
for CN (for your calculations actual information should be used) since the
interruption on 9/3 shows that at least 1500 customers have been interrupted
during the year.
Example

Example
CTAIDI, CAIFI, CEMIn, and CEMSMIn require detailed interruption information for
each customer. The database should be searched for all customers who have
experienced more than n interruptions that last longer than five minutes. Assume n is
chosen to be 5. In Table , customer Willis, J. experienced seven interruptions in one year
and it is plausible that other customers also experienced more than five interruptions,
both momentary and sustained.
For this example, assume arbitrary values of 350 for CN(k > n), and 750 for CNT(k >
n). The number of interrupting device operations is given in Table and is used to
calculate MAIFI and MAIFIE.
Example

Example
 Momentary interruption example
To better illustrate the concepts of momentary interruptions and sustained
interruptions and the associated indices, consider Figure which illustrates a
circuit composed of a circuit breaker (B), a recloser (R), and a sectionalizer
(S).
Example
 Momentary interruption example

750 customers would experience a momentary interruption and 250
customers would experience a sustained interruption. Calculations for SAIFI,
MAIFI, and MAIFIE on a feeder basis. Notice that the numerator of MAIFI is
multiplied by 2 because the recloser took two shots, however, MAIFIE is
multiplied by 1 because it only counts the fact that a series of momentary
events occurred.
Example
 Step restoration examples
A feeder serving 1000 customers experiences a sustained interruption. Multiple
restoration steps are required to restore service to all customers. Table shows the
times of each step, a description and associated customers interruptions and minutes
they were affected in a time line format.
Example
 Step restoration examples
In this example, all of the customers supplied by the circuit were interrupted at the
beginning of step 1. Service was restored to a portion of those customers at the end of
step 1. Service was restored to another portion of those customers at the end of step
2. Additional customers were interrupted during step 3 (new step 1). Service was
restored to additional customers at the end of step 3.
Factors that cause variation in reported
indices
Many factors can cause variation in the indices reported by different utilities.
Some examples of differences in the following:
 level of automated data collection
 geography
 system design
 data classification
To ensure accurate and equitable assessment and comparison of absolute
performance and performance trends over time, it is important to classify
performance for each day in the data set to be analyzed as either day-to-day
or major event day.

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Syed Babar Ali

School of Science and Engineering

Power System Planning – EE 556

 It explicitly recognize the impact of a loss of single generating unit only.

 Reliability in hydro-dominated system is defined in terms of required

 This is not an index but is rather a criterion.

 The driest year of the available statistical information or a year related to

 It is a reliability index that indicates the probability that some portion of

 It is the proportion of days per year or hours per year. It is expressed as a

 LOLP represents an actual duration of outages rather than the probability

 POPM is expressed as probability of success.

 For example, a system with a failure probability (LOLP) of 0.005 has a

 It is widely used in Europe, it is one of the most widely used generation

 It is defined as the ratio of expected amount of unserved energy due to

 It is mathematically related to the EUE.

 It indicates the expected magnitude of the unsupplied load (MW), during a

 It is equivalent to expected capacity deficiency (EUE) divided by the

 In the hierarchy of utility emergency operating procedures, there are a

 The frequency of the generating capacity shortage events is the expected

 Generating unit characteristics

 Estimates of outage frequency and duration depend upon the time

 Maintenance of hydroelectric units is typically scheduled for high-water

 Chronological simulations are required to determine the effects on system

 It is an operational parameter that affect system reliability.

 Emergency conditions are more likely to develop during peak loads, it is

 Outages have been classified as follows:

3. Short and intermediate-term shutdowns

7. Delay in commercial operation date (COD)

 We may also describe this system in terms of capacity outage

Outage Capacity Probability

Outage Capacity Probability

Where P’(X) and P(X) denote the cumulative probabilities of the

 Using Cumulative Probability

• where n is the total number of capacity outage states

Time periods during which loss of load occurs

 For the discussion of service reliability and customer value

 Commercial and institutional demand curves are relatively high but

 Demand, particularly by residential customers, is very strongly dependent

 Customer Count: The number of customers either served or interrupted

 Distribution system: That portion of an electric system that delivers electric

 Interrupting Device: An interrupting device is a device whose purpose is to

 Interruption: The loss of service to one or more customers connected to the

 Interruption duration: The time period from the initiation of an interruption

 Lockout: Refers to the final operation of a recloser or circuit breaker in an attempt

 Momentary interruption: A single operation of an interrupting device that

 Planned Interruption: A loss of electric power that results when a component

 Sustained interruption: Any interruption not classified as a part of a

 Overall Transmission Assessment statement

 Transmission additions and backbone project description

 Transfer capability results

 Dynamic Stability Issues

 Under Frequency Load Shedding

 Short Circuit Levels

 Loss of Generation (LOG) :

 Loss of Supply (LOS):

Transmission reliability is determined by two measures in this report:

 Transmission Sustained Average Interruption Duration Index (T-SAIDI).

 A total of 103 multi-circuit interruption events occurred on 355 circuits,