PROBABILITY

[Nothing in life is
certain]
definition

What is PROBABILITY?
• Probability is the chance that some
event will happen
definition

What is PROBABILITY?
• Probability is the chance that some
event will happen
• Formal study of uncertainty
 definition

What is PROBABILITY?
• Probability is the chance that some
event will happen
• Formal study of uncertainty
• It is the ratio of the number of ways a
certain event can occur to the number
of possible outcomes
 background

• ancient record of probability pertains to

GAMBLING
background

• ancient record of probability pertains to

GAMBLING
• as far as ancient Egypt where 4-sided
“astragali” (made from animal heel bones)
 were used)
background

• The Roman emperor Claudius (10BC-54AD)

wrote the first known treatise on gambling.
background

• The Roman emperor Claudius (10BC-54AD)

wrote the first known treatise on gambling. •
Rule 1: Let Caesar win IV out of V times
 background

• The Roman emperor Claudius (10BC-54AD)

wrote the first known treatise on gambling. •
Rule 1: Let Caesar win IV out of V times • The
book “How to Win at Gambling” was lost
facts
facts
facts
facts
 terminologies

Experiment:
act or process that leads to a single outcome that
cannot be predicted with certainty
terminologies

Experiment:
act or process that leads to a single outcome that
cannot be predicted with certainty
Sample space [s]:
all possible outcomes of an experiment
terminologies

Event:
any subset of the sample space S
terminologies

Event:
any subset of the sample space S

Simple event:
a specific outcome or type of
outcome; event with only one outcome
terminologies

Outcome:
one possible result of a probability.
 terminologies

Outcome:
possible result of a probability.

Random:
outcomes that occur at random if each
outcome is equally likely to occur
terminologies
Complementary Events:
the events of one outcome happening and
that outcomes not happening are
complementary;
the sum of the probabilities of complementary
events is equal to 1
terminologies

Complementary Events:
 P(e’)
P(e)
terminologies
Dependent events:
if the outcome of the first event affects the
outcome of the second event
terminologies
Dependent events:
if the outcome of the first event affects the
outcome of the second event

Independent events:
if the outcome of the first event does not affect
the outcome of the second event
terminologies
Mutually exclusive events:
Events with no common outcomes from
S Disjoint events
terminologies
Mutually exclusive events:
Events with no common outcomes from S
Disjoint A ∩ Β = ∅
events
 P(a) P(b)
terminologies
Mutually inclusive events:
Events with common outcomes from S
Joint events
terminologies
Mutually inclusive events:
Events with common outcomes from S
Joint events

P(a) P(b)
A

terminologies
Union of events (or)
The collection of all events happening on two
events [P(a∪b)]

P(a) P(b)
terminologies
Intersection of events (and)
The collection of all events happening on two
events [P(a∩b)]
 P(a) P(b)
formula

Probability of Simple Events

number of favorable outcomes

number of possible outcomes P(event) =

 D
P(e) = S

Laws
Laws
Addition Rule
(for any two event)

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

Laws

Addition Rule
(for disjoint events)
 P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)
Laws

Product Rule
(for two independent events)

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) x P(B)

Exercises
 Exercises

Aiden pulls an ace from a deck of regular

playing cards. He does not replace the
card. What is the probability of pulling out
a second ace?
Exercises

Jayson was tossing a coin. He tossed a

head. What is the probability of tossing a
second head on his next flip?
Exercises

Jayson was tossing a coin. He tossed a

head. What is the probability of tossing a
second head on his next flip?

• Is it still one-half.
 Exercises

Probability of having the same birthday in a

room with 27 persons.
Exercises

Winning in a race and probability of being

an athlete scholar.
Evaluation
1. You throw a die twice. What is the probability
of throwing a six and then a second six? Is this
an independent or dependent event?
Evaluation

2. You have a bag of candy filled with pieces

which are all the same sizes and shapes. Four
are gumballs and six are sweet and sours. You
draw a gumball out, decide you don't like it, put
it back, and select another piece of candy. What
is the probability of selecting another gumball?
Are these independent or dependent events?
Evaluation

3. Joey has a box of blocks with eight alphabet

blocks and four plain red blocks. He gave an
alphabet block to his sister. What is the
probability his next selection will be another
alphabet block? Are these independent or
dependent events?
Performance Task

Write a short essay about the

saying: “Live by CHOICES
not by CHANCES”