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Assessment of Risk Factors For Cerebrovascular Disease Among The Elderly
Assessment of Risk Factors For Cerebrovascular Disease Among The Elderly
A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T
Keywords: Introduction: There are few studies on how lifestyle factors and mental conditions modulate the cerebrovascular
Cerebrovascular diseases diseases (CBVD) mortality risk are rare in the Asian elderly.
Mortality Aim: To comprehensively assess the impact of lifestyle factors and mental conditions on the mortality risk of
Risk factors CBVD among the Chinese older adults.
Survival
Material and methods: This community-based prospective cohort study was based on the Beijing Longitudinal
Study of Aging. We included 2101 participants aged ≥55 years who were interviewed in August 1992 and
followed until December 2015. Baseline sociodemographic variables, lifestyle behaviors, and medical conditions
were collected using a standard questionnaire. In addition, biochemical parameters, the Activities of Daily Living
(ADL) scale, Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D) scale, and Mini-Mental State Examination
(MMSE) were performed. Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) was estimated from the com-
peting risk model.
Results: During the follow-up period, 576 (27.42%) CBVD events were documented. Multivariable analysis
showed that hypertension (HR = 2.331, 95% CI = 1.652–3.288,P < 0.001), depression (HR=2.331, 95%
CI=1.652-3.288, P < 0.001), cognitive impairment (HR=1.382, 95% CI=1.132-1.689, P < 0.001), and
coronary heart diseases (HR=1.360, 95% CI=1.095-1.689, P = 0.005) were independently associated with
CBVD, while body mass index, fasting blood glucose, triglycerides, drinking, and smoking were not associated
with CBVD (all P > 0.05).
Conclusions: Males were at higher risk of CBVD than females. Age, gender, hypertension, cognitive impairment,
and depression were associated with CBVD among the elderly in Beijing, China.
1. Introduction years) (Feigin et al., 2014). The incidence of CBVD has increased by
100% in developing countries (Thrift et al., 2017). In China, the stan-
Cerebrovascular diseases (CBVD) include ischemic and hemorrhagic dardized CBVD-related death rate is 124.15 in women and 148.57 in
stroke and transient ischemic attacks (TIA). CBVD is the second leading men per 100,000 people per year (Sun, Zou, & Liu, 2013).
cause of death globally after ischemic coronary heart disease, ac- The mortality and disability due to CBVD is expected to increase in
counting for a combined 15 million all-cause mortality (World Health the future because of aging population and change of lifestyles (Feigin,
Organization, 2015). The incidence of stroke is similar between high- Norrving, & Mensah, 2017). The risk factors for CBVD include history of
and low-income countries (ranging from 217 to 281 per 100,000 TIA, cardiovascular diseases (hypertension, myocardial infarction, at-
person-years), but the mortality is lower in high-income countries rial fibrillation, atrial tachyarrhythmia, and left atrial enlargement),
compared with low-income countries (61 vs. 105 per 100,000 person- smoking, metabolic syndrome, obesity, heavy alcohol use, diabetes
⁎
Corresponding authors at: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
⁎⁎
Corresponding author at: Beijing Geriatric Healthcare Center, Xuan Wu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
E-mail addresses: tangzhe@medmail.com.cn (Z. Tang), statguo@ccmu.edu.cn (X. Guo).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.archger.2018.07.017
Received 8 February 2018; Received in revised form 12 July 2018; Accepted 27 July 2018
Available online 29 July 2018
0167-4943/ © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
H. Li et al. Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics 79 (2018) 39–44
mellitus type 2, high cholesterol levels, and carotid artery stenosis groups: 55–65 years, 66–75 years, and > 75 years. Body mass index
(O’Donnell et al., 2016). Fortunately, some risk factors such as dietary (BMI) was calculated as weight (kg) divided by height squared (m2) and
habits (high sodium intake, high intake of processed foods, and low grouped into four categories: thin (< 18.5 kg/m2), normal (18.5–23 kg/
intake of fruits, vegetables, fish, and whole grains), poor physical m2), overweight (23–30 kg/m2), and obesity (> 30 kg/m2) (Chen, Lu,
function, and substance abuse are modifiable (Jauch et al., 2013). Department of Disease Control Ministry of Health, & P.R.C, 2004).
However, others factors associated with mortality due to CBVD such as Blood pressure (BP) was measured by a trained nurse on the right arm
older age, the number of neurological deficits, being Caucasian are of participants seated after resting for ≥10 min. Participants were
unmodifiable (Xian, Holloway, Noyes, Shah, & Friedman, 2011). classified into three groups: high (systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≥140
As reported in previous studies, age, male, stroke severity, hemor- mmHg or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) ≥ 90 mmHg), critical
rhagic stroke, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and right hemisphere (140 > SBP ≥120 mmHg or 90 > DBP ≥80 mmHg), and normal
stroke were independently associated with mortality from CBVD, while (SBP < 120 mmHg and DBP > 80 mmHg) (Liu, 2011).
atrial fibrillation, antihypertensive treatment at admission, smoking, or Blood samples were collected after overnight fasting for ≥12 h.
living alone were also associated with CBVD (Ronning, 2013). In ad- Fasting plasma glucose (FBG), total cholesterol (TC), high-density li-
dition, Guo et al. founded that elderly people (especially women) with poprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol
low score mini-mental state examination (MMSE) score were at higher (LDL-C), and triglycerides (TG) were measured using standardized en-
risk of CBVD (Guo et al., 2017). However, studies on the combined zymatic methods. Participants who had TC ≥ 200 mg/dL (5.18 mmol/
impact of lifestyle factors and mental conditions (such as depression L), or TG ≥ 150 mg/dL (1.70 mmol/L), or HDL-C ≥ 40 mg/dL
and cognitive impairment) on the CBVD mortality risk in the Asian (1.03 mmol/L) for men and ≥50 mg/dL (1.29 mmol/L) for women, or
elderly population are few. LDL-C ≥ 130 mg/dL (3.37 mmol/L) were considered to be dyslipidemic
The present study aimed to develop a comprehensive model for (Wu, 2007). Diabetes mellitus was defined as self-reported history of
CBVD mortality by incorporating the effects of lifestyle factors and diabetes diagnosis or using the antidiabetic medicine after the baseline
mental conditions among the older Chinese population in a 23-year examination, or FBG ≥ 126 mg/dL (7.0 mmol/L) (Alberti & Zimmet,
community-based prospective cohort study. We hypothesized that (1) 1998). Impaired fasting glucose was identified having a FPG level of
depression or cognitive impairment were independently associated 109.8–125.9 mg/dL (6.1–6.9 mmol/L) (Alberti & Zimmet, 1998).
with increased risk of CBVD; (2) clustering of CBVD risk factors was The questionnaire also included the frequency of doing exercise: if
strongly associated with a high risk of CBVD mortality. the participant exercised regularly (almost every day), then this was
defined as exercising frequently. Participants were asked, “Do you eat
2. Methods fresh fruit almost every day? and “Do you eat fresh vegetables almost
every day?”. A possible answer was “yes” or “no”.
2.1. Study design and participants Physical function was assessed using the Instrumental Activities of
Daily Living (ADL) scale (Jefferson et al., 2008). ADL scale included 6
This study was based on a secondary analysis of the Beijing items of daily activities (walking, getting out of bed, feeding, dressing,
Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA), a community-based prospective bathing, and toileting). A participant was categorized as disabled if he/
cohort study (Tang et al., 1999). The procedures for sampling and data she was unable to complete at least one of the above activities alone.
collection were described in details elsewhere (Tang et al., 1999; Tian Depression was assessed using a 20-item measure of the Center for
et al., 2011). Briefly, a three-stage stratification random clustering Epidemiological Studies Depressive symptoms scale (CES-D) (Radloff,
sampling procedure (i.e., urban and rural-level sampling, neighborhood 1977). The CES-D has a high sensitivity and specificity for major de-
community-level sampling, and respondent-level sampling) was used to pressive symptoms among the elderly. The total scores ranged from 0 to
obtain a representative sample in Beijing in August 1992. Finally, 3257 30, and a cut-off value ≥16 was used to identify depression (Radloff,
participants were included from three districts of Beijing: Xuanwu, 1977).
Daxing, and Huairou. In this study, 2101 participants aged ≥55 years The Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) was used to measure
were included after agreeing undertake a blood examination test. The the global cognitive function (Li et al., 2012). The MMSE scale included
included and the excluded sample were compared to assess enrolment five domains: orientation, attention, calculation, recall, and language.
bias; the differences in baseline characteristics between these two The total score ranged from 0 to 30, with higher scores representing
groups were not statistically significant. good cognitive ability. Cognitive impairment was defined based on the
This study was approved by the ethics committee of the Xuanwu education level and MMSE score. The cutoff values were as follows:
Hospital affiliated to the Capital Medical University (Approval No.: illiterate < 17, primary school education < 20, and secondary or
2015SY52). Written informed consents were originally obtained for higher education < 24.
each participant.
2.4. Outcome assessment
2.2. Data collection
CBVD incidence and/or mortality was defined as the primary cause
A standard questionnaire including demographic characteristics, of death as indicated by the International Classification of Disease
socioeconomic status, and health conditions was applied at baseline (ICD)-10 (I60-169). Deaths from cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and
data collection. The questionnaire was a modified version of that used other causes were considered as competing events.
in the English Longitudinal Studies on Aging (ELSA) (Steptoe, Breeze,
Banks, & Nazroo, 2013). The questionnaire was completed at home by 2.5. Statistical analysis
trained interviewers (nurses, doctors, or senior medical students). These
personnel helped the illiterate participants to complete the ques- Since a few serum biochemical values were missing, multiple im-
tionnaire, where necessary. putation (MI) was performed to impute the missing information.
According to data distribution, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
2.3. Assessment of risk factors method was used to avoid the loss of generality. The “PROC MI” pro-
cedure in the SAS software package (Version 9.2; SAS Institute,
Demographic characteristics included: age, gender, marital status, Chicago, IL, USA) was used. Follow-up time was calculated from the
and education level. Smoking and drinking status were ascertained initial date of the 1992 questionnaire to CBVD incidence, mortality, loss
from self-administered questionnaires. Age was categorized into three to follow-up, or end of follow-up (December 31, 2015), whichever came
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H. Li et al. Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics 79 (2018) 39–44
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H. Li et al. Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics 79 (2018) 39–44
Fig. 1. Survival curves for cerebrovascular incidence or mortality (a) comparison among age groups; (b) comparison between gender; (c) comparison among BMI
groups; (d) comparison among blood pressure groups; (e) comparison among cognitive function groups (MMSE score); (f) comparison among smoking habits.
reported that depressive symptoms increased the risk of cardiovascular Framingham stroke risk score (Sabayan, Gussekloo, de Ruijter,
diseases mortality by 1.48-fold (Li et al., 2018). Similarly, we found Westendorp, & de Craen, 2013). Therefore, the MMSE scale can be
that males who suffered from depression, as assessed by the CES-D applied in clinical assessment of cognitive function as a simple
scale, were at a higher risk than those who did not. Yet, the biological screening tool to identify older adults at high risk of stroke.
mechanisms by which depression increases CBVD risk are not fully The mechanism of the association between BP and CBVD may in-
understood. Depression has neuroendocrine and inflammatory effects volve psychological distress, which is often associated with increased
and increases platelet activity, which may promote the development of BP and sleep disturbance (Ojike et al., 2016). Indeed, both critical BP
CBVD (Kwan et al., 2013). values and hypertension were associated with CBVD mortality, al-
Cognitive impairment is common in older adults. A previous report though the correlation between psychological distress and BP was not
based on the BLSA showed that elderly people (especially women) with established, because many factors influence BP. Additionally, the effect
lower MMSE score are at higher risk of CBVD (Guo et al., 2017). Many of psychological distress on BP may be minor compared with other
CBVDs such as cerebral subcortical small vessel disease, acute stroke, factors. Accordingly, a previous study showed that psychological dis-
and Alzheimer disease are related to poorer cognition in elderly tress was caused by patients knowing that they had hypertension, but
(Smallwood et al., 2012). In addition, the MMSE score has a high dis- was not associated with elevated BP values in patients without a di-
criminative power to predict the onset stroke of compared to the agnosis (Hamer, Batty, Stamatakis, & Kivimaki, 2010). Nevertheless,
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H. Li et al. Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics 79 (2018) 39–44
Table 2
Competing risk model analysis for risk factors of CBVD.
HR (95% CI)
β*
P-value *
Model 1 Model 2
*
β and P-value was estimated from Model 2.
Model 1: adjusted for gender and age.
Model 2: full adjusted model.
HR: hazard ratio; CI: confidence interval; BMI: body mass index; FBG: fasting blood glucose; TG: triglycerides; CES-D: Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression;
MMSE: mini-mental state examination.
high BP is a well-recognized risk factor for CBVD (Jauch et al., 2013; for CBVD mortality in previous studies. However, we note that cardiac
Ronning, 2013). conditions were not assessed in the present study. Finally, despite the
The present study has several limitations. Despite the large sample random sampling in the entire Beijing area, these results may not be
size, the 95% CI value was wide suggesting a high variability among the applicable to all people in the Beijing area. Additionally, large-scale
participants. In addition, several other confounding factors such as at- prospective cohort studies are still needed to identify the full-range of
rial fibrillation were not be collected, yet it was identified as risk factors risk factors for CBVD in the broader Chinese population.
Fig. 2. Survival curves for cerebrovascular cumulative survival rate according to different levels of risk groups in 1992.
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H. Li et al. Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics 79 (2018) 39–44
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Based on the results of this study, we confirmed that advanced age, et al. (2013). Guidelines for the early management of patients with acute ischemic
male gender, hypertension, cognitive impairment, and depression were stroke: A guideline for healthcare professionals from the American Heart Association/
associated with higher risk of CBVD among the elderly in Beijing, American Stroke Association. Stroke, 44, 870–947.
Jefferson, A. L., Byerly, L. K., Vanderhill, S., Lambe, S., Wong, S., Ozonoff, A., et al.
China. Individuals with clustering of multiple risk factors were at a (2008). Characterization of activities of daily living in individuals with mild cognitive
higher risk of CBVD mortality. Departments of public health manage- impairment. American Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry, 16, 375–383.
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impact of longitudinal changes in blood pressure, cognition function dependent depressive symptoms and risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality
among the Chinese elderly: The Beijing Longitudinal Study of Aging. Journal of
and depression on the risk of CBVD.
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Li, X., Wang, W., Gao, Q., Wu, L., Luo, Y., Tang, Z., et al. (2012). The trajectories and
Conflict of interest statement correlation between physical limitation and depression in elderly residents of Beijing,
1992–2009. PloS One, 7, e42999.
Liu, L. S. (2011). 2010 Chinese guidelines for the management of hypertension. Chinese
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consultancies, stock ownership, honoraria, paid expert testimony, pa- Murray, A. D., Staff, R. T., McNeil, C. J., Salarirad, S., Phillips, L. H., Starr, J., et al.
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portance of intelligence and lesion location. Depression and Anxiety, 30, 77–84.
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of China (No.: 81502885, 81530087, 81703317). Global and regional effects of potentially modifiable risk factors associated with acute
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Acknowledgment et al. (2016). Psychological distress and hypertension: Results from the national
health interview survey for 2004-2013. Cardiorenal Medicine, 6, 198–208.
We thank the staff in Xuanwu hospital for collecting the epide- Overvad, T. F., Rasmussen, L. H., Skjoth, F., Overvad, K., Lip, G. Y., & Larsen, T. B. (2013).
Body mass index and adverse events in patients with incident atrial fibrillation. The
miological data and maintaining the database.
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Ronning, O. M. (2013). Very long-term mortality after ischemic stroke: Predictors of
cardiovascular death. Acta Neurologica Scandinavica, 69–72.
Supplementary material related to this article can be found, in the Sabayan, B., Gussekloo, J., de Ruijter, W., Westendorp, R. G., & de Craen, A. J. (2013).
online version, at doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.archger.2018.07.017. Framingham stroke risk score and cognitive impairment for predicting first-time
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