14/10/2018 Semi-Variogram: Nugget, Range and Sill - GIS Geography

Semi-Variogram: Nugget, Range and Sill

MEASURE VARIABILITY WITH DISTANCE USING SEMI-VARIOGRAMS

Last Updated: Feb 23, 2018

What is a Semi-Variogram?

Tobler’s First Law of Geography states that “everything is related to everything else, but near things
are more related than distant things.”

In the case of a semi-variogram, closer things are more predictable and has less variability. While
distant things are less predictable and are less related.

For example, the terrain one meter ahead of you is more likely to be similar than 100 meters away.

As you’ll learn, semi-variogram charts out this critically important concept of how sample values
(pollution, elevation, noise, etc.) vary with distance. Also, we’ll show you how this relates to kriging
interpolation.

Soil Moisture Samples

Our example contains 73 soil moisture samples in a 10 acre eld. In the north-west corner, the
samples are much wetter with higher water content. But in the eastern quadrant, they are much dryer
as color-coded in the image below.
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How predictable are values from place to place?

Are known values closer together more similar than values farther apart?

This idea can be described with statistical dependence or autocorrelation. Further to this,
autocorrelation (things closer together are more similar than things farther apart) provides valuable
information for prediction.

READ MORE: Spatial Autocorrelation and Moran’s I in GIS

How semi-variograms work

To understand spatial dependence, you can estimate it with a semi-

variogram. Semi-variograms take 2 sample locations and calls the
distance between both points h.
3D Design
In the x-axis, it plots distance (h) in lags, which are just grouped distances.
Excel Software
Taking each set of 2 sample locations, it measures the variance between
the response
Wevariable (water
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Depending on the observer, semi-variograms look like a big mess of points. For example, our soil
moisture plot looks like this:

But you can really do some detective work by selecting individual points. When you take this single
point on the semi-variogram:

You can see which 2 points they represent on the map. This makes sense because they are a far
distance apart from each other. Hence, its far-right position in the semi-variogram. It’s actually this
point highlighted below:

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They also have a large difference from the mean value in that particular lag distance. It’s positioned
higher on the y-axis if the semivariance is high. As you probably noticed, the semivariance is smaller
at closer distances and increases with larger lag distances.

Always remember:

We are looking at all distance between 2 samples and their variability. A semi-variogram considers all
points and their distance with variance. That’s why semi-variograms have so many points on it. Here’s
a subset of the data set above to see all the different sets of points that are being plotted out in a
semi-variogram.

What is the range, sill and nugget in semi-variograms?

At sample points with close distances, the difference in values between

points tend to be small. In other words, the semi-variance is small.

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But when sample point distances are farther away, they are less likely to
be similar. This means that the semi-variance becomes large. Large Map

Data Analysis
As distance increases away from sample points, there is no longer a
relationship between the sample points. Their variance begins to atten
out, and sample values are not related to one another.

SILL: The value at which the model rst attens out.

RANGE: The distance at which the model rst attens out.

NUGGET: The value at which the semi-variogram (almost) intercepts the y-value.

When you have two sample points at the same location, it is expected to have the same value so the
nugget should be zero. Sometimes they don’t and this adds randomness. But before the graph starts
leveling, these value are spatially auto correlated.

As expected, when distance increases, the semivariance increases. There are less pairs of points
separated by far distances, hence the less correlation between sample points.

But as indicated in the semi-variogram with the sill and range, it begins to reach its at, asymptotic
level. This is when you try to t a function to model this behavior.

Mathematical function and models

You select the type of model for how it ts the data because it will provide a mathematical function to
the relationship between values and distances. We use functions that are the best t like exponential,
linear, spherical and Gaussian.

Ideally, you are trying to lower your R-squared value, as best t as possible. However, when you have
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an understanding of how the phenomena behaves with distance, you can better choose which model
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to use.

For example, here are the mathematical functions you can apply to semi-variograms:

1 Linear Models

A linear model means that spatial variability increases linearly with distance. It’s the most simple type
of model without a plateau, meaning that the user has to arbitrarily select the sill and range.

2 Spherical Models

The spherical model is one of the most common models we use in variogram modelling. It is a
modi ed quadratic equation where spatial dependence attens out as the sill and range.

3 Exponential Models

The exponential model resembles the spherical model in that spatial variability reaches the sill
gradually. The relationship between two sample points decay gradually, while at a distance of in nite
spatial dependence dissipates.

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4 Gaussian Models

The Gaussian function uses a normal probability distribution curve. This type of model is useful
where phenomena are similar at short distances because of its progressive rise up the y-axis.

5 Circular Models

This type of prediction model uses a circular function to t spatial variability in a semi-variogram. It
resembles the speherical model function where spatial dependence fades away at its asymptotic
level.

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Conclusion

Semi-variograms provide a useful preliminary step in understanding the nature of data.

Each phenomenon has its own semi-variogram and own mathematical function. The user uncovers
the relationship between values and distances and then chooses the best tting model.

Although semi-variograms are handy for understanding variation with distance, the model you choose
from semi-variograms commonly goes into kriging. Because this type of interpolation technique uses
the mathematical model from the semi-variogram, it’s one of the best forms of prediction today.

This is because the variogram model in uences the prediction of those unknown values during
kriging interpolation.

An Example of Case Study All Software

GIS Map Data 3D Map

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