Christ (Deemed to be University)

Department of Economics
Article Review CIA 3

Trade and Economic Growth

post:COVID

Author:
Vishnu Kiran 1840827 Supervisor:
Atul Johnson 1840865 Dr. Rajeshwari U R
Aravind V Anil 1840807

April 26, 2021

1 Abstract
This paper examines how a country’s amount of total trade spurs economic
growth within countries and how the situation has been affected by COVID.
The paper will analyse how the total trade activity, measured as the combined
level of exports and imports, impacts economic growth, measured as changes
in GDP per capita. The model is expanded to include a country’s amount
of foreign direct investment, gross savings, unemployment level, amount of
manufacturing in the economy, and the country’s overall status as a developed
or developing economy as other potential factors and influencers of economic
growth.

2 Introduction
The export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH) within economic theory, claims
that any increase in exports drives the growth of a country and spurs eco-
nomic development. While the hypothesis focuses specifically on exports,
total trade activity may be a better indication of participation in the global
economy as it more fully reflects a nation’s international cooperation. The
relationship between economic growth and a country’s total trade is impor-
tant for policy makers to understand how to stimulate growth. Domestic
trade policies often oscillates between protectionism, the defence of national
industries, and trade liberalization, the opening of markets and encourage-
ment of free trade throughout the world. Investigating the impact of total
trade on economic growth is crucial for developing trade policies that will
grow an economy continuously and efficiently. Considering how the amount
of trade, foreign direct investment, and savings impact economic growth pro-
vides a well-rounded picture for policy makers to consider when establishing
international trade policy. With the new situation after COVID, there has
been a severe drop in the trade beyond borders considerably in many nations.
As the situation has started improving, the trade has started opening up but
has not yet reached the same level. International trade is one of the most
important sources of income for many countries and for others it is their
only method of obtaining certain resources. COVID has severely affected
the world economy and has had an adverse effect on the Indian economy. It
has brought almost every developing country and some adversely developed
countries down. This article examines the situation post the pandemic.

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3 Review of Literature
The relationship between trade and economic growth has often been sup-
ported by the premise that increased trade liberalization in the modern, glob-
alized world will encourage economic growth. This paper attempts to uncover
the most basic relationship between a country’s quantity of trade activity,
sub-sector of globalization and indicator of trade liberalization, along with
productivity factors as they impact economic growth and how the COVID 19
Virus has affected trade between countries. A survey of several models of the
causal relationship between international trade and economic growth done by
Tarlok Singh (2010) found inconsistent trends of data analysis and collection
surrounding international trade impacts. In both micro- and macroeconomic
settings, it is early impossible to untangle the web of data in such a way that
provides for conclusive and repeated results. The wide range of variables con-
sidered in the survey led Singh (2010) to conclude that the inconsistencies
of the data across the literature make it nearly impossible to find common
causal interpretations between various papers. For this reason, the model
below is narrower in scope. Those that focus on micro-economic growth,
where the productivity of a country is the direct correlation of variables that
range from research and development to infrastructure, have equally varied
data to that of the macroeconomic studies. the model below is narrower in
scope. As previous literature focused on the impact of barriers to trade as a
factor which affects economic growth, Singh’s (2010) findings that Member
States of the World Trade Organization (WTO) have not seen any more or
less benefits from trade than external states cast doubt on the importance
of including politically motivated groups which is why economic investment
in the domestic economy has been determined to be more fundamental in
a country’s economic growth for the purposes of this study. A targeted ex-
amination of trade, trade’s impact on economic growth and the situation
post-COVID should reach a conclusion that takes into account the invest-
ment that enters a country. There is little argument that trade liberalization
has a number of theoretical impacts on any given economy. COVID has
slowed down the world economy altogether as it brought the world to a stop
for months. As the world is slowly recovering from this global crisis and the
vaccine yet to be distributed the trade between countries has restarted and
gained speed. Economic growth has taken the worst hit in 2020 as it has
reached the lowest in the last two decades.

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4 Post-COVID Economy: An Overview
The COVID-19 pandemic has spread with alarming speed, infecting millions
and bringing economic activity to a near-standstill as countries imposed tight
restrictions on movement to halt the spread of the virus. As the health and
human toll grows, the economic damage is already evident and represents
the largest economic shock the world has experienced in decades. The crisis
highlights the need for urgent action to cushion the pandemic’s health and
economic consequences, protect vulnerable populations, and set the stage for
a lasting recovery. For emerging market and developing countries, many of
which face daunting vulnerabilities, it is critical to strengthen public health
systems, address the challenges posed by informality, and implement reforms
that will support strong and sustainable growth once the health crisis abates.
The pandemic is expected to plunge most countries into recession in 2020,
with per capita income contracting in the largest fraction of countries glob-
ally since 1870. Advanced economies are projected to shrink 7 percent. That
weakness will spill over to the outlook for emerging market and developing
economies, who are forecast to contract by 2.5 percent as they cope with their
own domestic outbreaks of the virus.This would represent the weakest show-
ing by this group of economies in at least sixty years. COVID-19 pandemic,
which, as of end April, 2020, has affected 210 countries and territories around
the world and infected more than 3 million people, of which more than 0.2
million people have died, is spreading like a wild fire with such a fury that
has compelled the governments across the world to revoke autarky as well as
shut down of the national economy in order to save their citizens from this
contagion. The strategy of isolation at all levels—local, regional, national
and international - is viewed to be the key towards the containment and
mitigation of COVID-19. As the crisis deepens, two important realisations,
inter alia, have come to the fore. India is no exception with various estimates
suggesting a rise of unemployment to unprecedented high levels along with
a fall in real GDP growth to a record low level of less than 2 per cent in
2020. The government has come forward with economic packages to transfer
income to the poorer segments in the economy along with complementary
liquidity enhancing measures of monetary authority. The Indian economy
has been hit hard by the ongoing Coronavirus (COVID-19) -driven global
crisis. As on 1 May 2020, about 25,000 people in India have been affected by
COVID-191. With some variations, there has been an unprecedented rise in
number of Corona patients across the world. A health crisis worldwide has

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generated a global economic crisis. The entire world is passing through great
uncertainty. There are, primarily, two major challenges that the Indian econ-
omy is facing at this juncture. First is to save the country from the spread
of Coronavirus, which is a health emergency. Saving lives is the principal
concern of the Indian government. Second is to save the economy from the
unfolding economic crisis due to the dual effects of the Coronavirus pandemic
and the global and national lockdown. Countries across the world are fac-
ing serious consequences and damages to the economies. According to the
International Monetary Fund (IMF), many economies may face negative per
capita income growth in 2020 due to the Coronavirus pandemic. In its recent
forecast, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) indicated a clear fall in world
trade between 13 per cent and 32 per cent in 2020, perhaps the highest fall
since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The IMF has also slashed growth
forecast for the Indian economy, projecting a GDP growth of 1.9 per cent in
2020. Although India has managed well till date in containing the spread of
the virus,3 the COVID-19 pandemic has already disrupted normal economic
activity and life in the country. India’s trade has been severely impacted.
At the moment, businesses are very vulnerable to the unfolding economic
crisis4 . People have been facing a sudden loss in their incomes, causing
a major drop in demand. To rescue the economy, India has announced a
range of fiscal and monetary stimulus packages. The major aim of this stim-
ulus is similar to the traditional Keynesian prescription of ‘pump-priming’,
whereby income transfers to people having higher marginal propensity to
spend can boost up the sagging demand. With the onset of COVID-19, the
global economy is set to undergo a sharp double-dip recession. As many
international agencies have already forecasted, the global growth could be -3
per cent in 2020, which is a decline of about 6 percentage points from the
baseline projection of positive 3 per cent growth with no pandemic. Such
swings in growth forecasts are unprecedented, and this is due to both health
scare with lots of deaths and infections and also due to the lockdown of a
major part of the global economy. Added to this, the pandemic appears to
be more severe in the industrialized economy. While the forecasts for 2021
suggest a sharp rebound, the trends suggest that the world may need to en-
dure this for a longer period than expected. The Government and the RBI
have taken various measures on a regular basis not only to ensure liquidity
in the financial markets but also transferring money to Jan Dhan accounts
to partially mitigate the income losses to the poor and daily wage earners.
The government has already announced a fiscal support of Rs 1.7 lakh crores,

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which is in addition to the support measures that other state governments
have taken so far. However, as it might turn out, the measures taken till now
may not be sufficient enough if the lockdown is extended further or for the
post-lockdown economy. This is more so to the sectors such as MSMEs that
are already struggling with two major shocks in the form of demonetization
and messy GST implementation. There are also demands for distribution
of free food grains to poor and destitute and some have further argued for
Universal Basic Income (UBI) type of support as was declared in the US (10
per cent of GDP) and other Scandinavian countries. Does India have such
fiscal space to go for such mega fiscal support? Or, what India should do to
ensure both lives and livelihood and help post-pandemic economy recovery?
It is also important to understand what needs to be done to revive the trade
sector as well, which is the backbone of not only for economic growth but
also for employment. In the fiscal space, unlike during the 2008 crisis, this
time around the fiscal situation of both Centre as well as most of the states
is in a precarious position. The Centre has already invoked the escape clause
for two consecutive years to breach its fiscal deficit target as suggested by
the existing FRBM Act (amended in 2018). There are many studies and
especially by the RBI, that the state finances have been deteriorating for the
past three consecutive years. While given the unprecedented situation right
now, it may not be wise to look at the fiscal targets now; most certainly it
is important to look at how to finance the fiscal deficit. Again, unlike in
2008, this time around the total savings rate has declined by more than 10
percentage points (in 2007 even government sector savings were positive).
Hence, any fiscal support that centre could undertake needs to be financed
(indirectly or directly) by the RBI. In other words, monetization of deficits
by the RBI, which, under an Act, was dismantled in the early 1990s.

5 Methodology
There are diverse methodologies of economic growth projections amid dif-
ferent types of economic shocks. There has been a strong debate about the
accuracy of growth projections in India, wherein RBI forecast is considered
most favourable (Gupta Minai, 2019). In the present study, the impact
assessment of COVID-19 pandemic is carried-out on India’s GVA, manufac-
turing sector, international trade and MSME sector. The impact is estimated
for two broad outlines: first, the situation where there is a quick turnaround

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after the lockdown period and the economy experiences a vertical recovery
(V-shaped). Second, the economy experiences a U-shaped recovery where
the effects of the lockdown prolong for a longer period of time till September
2020. In the case of V-shaped recovery, we make two hypothetical scenar-
ios—scenarios A and B. In scenario A, we assume the resumption of normal
level of economic activities post 40 days lockdown, that is, after 3 May 2020.2
In scenario B, we consider the complete lockdown up to 3 May 2020 and 50
per cent capacity utilization of the economy till 31 May 2020. Similarly, we
have two hypothetical scenarios—C and D—in case of U-shaped recovery. In
case of scenario C, we assume 70 per cent of capacity utilization by 30 June
2020 in addition to 50 per cent capacity utilization from 3 to 31 May 2020.
Scenario D where normalcy level is assumed in three phases—50 per cent by
end of May, 70 per cent by June and 90 per cent by September 2020, assum-
ing that 10 per cent sectors which are adversely affected may take much time
for their resumption. These numbers of capacity utilization are based on par-
tial opening of the economy across sectors and locations, and the opinions of
subject experts. Further, keeping in view the substantial channelization of
resources for public administration and health services, the results for four
hypothetical scenarios are present with respect to (a) with the over capacity
utilization of 50 per cent in the public administration services, hereafter PAD
and (b) the normal functioning of PAD services.

5.1 Impact on GDP Growth Rate

While the COVID-19 pandemic is constantly growing and showing little signs
of containment as of 15 April 2020, its adverse impact on economic growth
of the country will probably be very serious. The UN warned that the coro-
navirus pandemic is expected to have a significant adverse impact on global
economy, and most significantly, GDP growth of India for the present econ-
omy is projected to decline to 4.8 per cent (United Nation 2020). Similarly,
the UN ‘Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) 2020
reported that COVID-19 would have extensive socio-economic consequences
in the region with inundate activities across borders in the areas of tourism,
trade and financial linkages (United Nations, 2020).
Economic Survey 2019–2020 had provided advance estimates for growth
in real GDP during 2019–2020 at 5.0 per cent, as depicted in Table 1, as
compared to the growth rate of 6.8 per cent in 2018–2019. The nominal
GDP is estimated at [U+20B9]204,400 billion in 2019–2020 with a growth of

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7.5 per cent over the provisional estimates of GDP ( [U+20B9]190,100 billion)
for 2018–2019. (Economic Survey, 2020, p. 100) On 28 February 2020, the
National Statistical Office announced revised estimates of GDP growth, from
8 per cent to 7.1 per cent in the first quarter, from 7 per cent to 6.2 per cent
in the second quarter and from 6.6 per cent to 5.6 per cent in the third
quarter. Goldman Sachs estimated the growth rate of GDP at 1.6 per cent,
declining by 400 basis points because of 21-day lockdown (Goldman Sachs,
2020). In case of a quick retraction of COVID-19 pandemic across the globe
by mid-May, KPMG India estimated India’s GDP growth in the range of 5.3
per cent to 5.7 per cent. In second scenario where India controls the virus
spread but there is a significant global recession, the growth may be between
4 per cent and 4.5 per cent. KPMG India in its report estimated India’s GDP
growth rate falling below 3 per cent if the virus spreads further in India and
lockdown sees an extension (KPMG, 2020). Motilal Oswal research suggests
that a single day of complete lockdown could shave off 14–19 basis points from
annual growth (Oswal, 2020). Barclays reported the cumulative shutdown
cost to be around 120 billion dollars, or 4 per cent of GDP (Barclays, 2020).
Mr Yashwant Sinha, former Finance Minister of India, estimated the cost
of 21-day countrywide lockdown at 1 percentage point of GDP. The global
recession and uncertainties of future might make a 2 percentage point decline
in growth rate (for 2020–2021) possible.

5.2 Implications on Capital Markets, Global Oil Mar-

ket and its Impact on India
Coronavirus fears have sent shock waves across global financial markets. In-
dian capital markets are envisaging a funds flow to Western capital markets,
owing to rate cuts and fall in the stock markets the world over. As per the
NSDL data, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn huge amounts
from India—[U+20B9]247.76 billion from equity markets and [U+20B9]140.50
billion from debt markets in a short span of 13 days, that is, from 1 to 13
of March 2020. There will be a lot of volatility in the capital markets in the
next 6 months, owing to rapid flow of capital from one market to another in
the world.
A historic drop in demand for oil has dropped the crude oil prices to an
18 year low of US22 per barrel, in March from US 65 per barrel in January.
Some estimates have pegged a saving of US7–8 billion for India for every US

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5 a barrel fall in crude oil prices. A fall in crude oil prices may cut India’s
current account deficit, which was 1.55 of GDP in 2019–2020 (Economic
Survey, 2020). But the capital outflows from India may exceed the potential
saving in the current account deficit. INR to USD average exchange rate
has been [U+20B9]70.4 per US dollar, but it is already quoting near the
psychological barrier of [U+20B9]75 per US dollar. If capital outflows from
India continue, rupee (INR) may depreciate further in the coming days.

5.3 Impact on International Trade

Aggregate trade: We compute the loss of trade in two formats: first, we de-
scribe the exposure of India’s exports and imports with the severe coronavirus-
affected countries. Second, we compute while following the similar practice
as of GVA loss computation.
Given the values of exports and imports till the first quarter of 2020.
Here we estimate the exports and imports from Q2 to Q4 for year 2020 by
applying the quarterly growth (YoY) of past year 2019. Then we compute
the loss for Q2 and Q3 under scenarios A–D. We do not compute the loss
for Q1 of 2020 as the data are already released wherein significant decline is
observed due to COVID-19. In case of scenario A, we would be having the
loss in exports and imports for only second quarter. With this loss of Q2 we
compute the percentage of overall exports/imports of year 2020. Similarly,
we calculate the loss of exports for the remaining scenarios. We follow this
approach for all the scenarios except scenario E. In fact, all the scenarios A–D
are relevant from India’s trade perspective. However, it is equally important
to see the impact on trade when world trade is also experiencing a massive
decline. In order to account for the issue, we take the hypothetical scenario E
wherein the percentage decline in quarters during the global financial crisis is
taken as reference point assuming that the corresponding decline was tuned
to the fall in global trade. Exports saw the highest decline of 31.9 per cent in
2009–2010 Q1 and imports of 31.7 in the next quarter. We consider the lowest
decline as weight factor for Q1 of 2020 and then give highest decline as weight
to the Q2 and then apply the weights in declining order to the subsequent
quarters (Q3 and Q4) of 2020. Then the loss in exports is computed with the
weighted average of exports of Q1–Q4 of 2020. Similar exercise is performed
for imports while taking the percentage decline in imports of corresponding
period of GFC.

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6 Findings
From the above study conducted by our group, We were able to find out
that the highest exposure of COVID-19 on Indian sectors relates to products
that make around 18 percent of India’s total export basket, i.e., the Textiles,
Clothing and Transportation sectors. Moderate exposure can be seen for
India’s top 3 exports, which are Fuels, Chemicals, and Stone and Glass,
which make up more than 40 percent of India’s exports. Sectors that are
less dependent on export markets, such as vegetables, plastic and rubber,
animals, food products, etc., face the lowest risks of exposure. India’s low
dependence on intermediary imports from China makes it less vulnerable.
Additionally, the low price of crude oil, which is India’s biggest import item,
will soften any external shock. The economic impact lies mainly with the
demand shocks rather than supply shocks, from countries heavily affected
by COVID-19. In the fight on pandemic, the states are the first line of
defense. Here, there is a need for the Centre to ensure sufficient resources
at the states/ districts. However, with the declining divisible pool as well as
in GST collections, states may not be in a position to enhance expenditure
for health. Although RBI has already suggested a 60 per cent hike in the
ways and means advance to the states and also extended the overdraft time,
it is still at a cost. Here, the Centre and the RBI need to observe the
States’ cash balance positions and accordingly handhold them with additional
resources. One way to finance the discrepancy in cash balance position is
to release the GST compensation fund in advance to the needy states and
this part could be monetized by the RBI. There is another source for the
states to tap the resources. It is the local bodies (especially the rural local
bodies) that are known for holding unspent balances especially after the
recommendation of the 14th Finance Commission. Here, as the end to the
pandemic is not sure, it may be wise for the governments to think of having
a ‘COVID Responsive Budgeting’ so that it would not affect allocations for
other sectors. The impact of COVID-19 on India’s trade is going to be huge.
The estimated fall in India’s exports is going to be 13.7–20.8 per cent in 2020
over 2019 under scenarios A–D. The estimated fall in imports ranges from
17.3 to 25 per cent. Under scenario A, the exports and imports are expected
to decline by 37 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively, in second quarter of
2020, the period in which there is very restrictive or no movements of goods
and services due to complete lockdown. This fall may extend to around
60 per cent for both exports and imports if the economy experiences partial

9
lockdown till the mid of 2020 and assuming 90 per cent capacity utilization till
September 2020. With regard to percentage decline in exports and imports
across commodities due to COVID-19, it is estimated that products such as
petroleum products, chemical products, machinery, electronics and plastic
and rubber would suffer a loss of more than the national average of 20 per
cent. As per estimation, India’s MSME sector can expect a decline of 2.1 per
cent under base scenario and this loss can increase to 5.7 per cent in case of
worst case scenario. The loss is more skewed in manufacturing sector to the
tune of 3.5 per cent in scenario A and 8.3 per cent in the scenario D. The
MSMEs dealing in trade and other services activities can bear the decline in
GVA in the range of 1.4–4.5 per cent. It is evident from the analysis that the
impact of the pandemic across sectors and in different scenarios of complete,
extended and partial lockdown and at different levels of capacity utilization
is massive on the Indian economy. The impact is particularly severe on
trade, manufacturing and the MSME sector which contribute substantially
to India’s employment and growth.

7 Reshaping the economy post-pandemic

The government’s foremost responsibility is to contain the spread of the virus
and ensure that there are as few deaths as possible because a workforce can
only be productive as long as it is healthy and alive. At the same time, given
disguised unemployment in agriculture and the large share of India’s work-
force employed in informal services and the unorganized sector, an extended
lockdown is likely to result in a life-threatening situation of its own. The gov-
ernment should, therefore, coordinate across the states to at least partially lift
the lockdowns in sectors of the economy that contribute significantly to the
country’s GDP, employment and exports, besides generating positive multi-
plier effects on demand and supply. These sectors include agriculture and
allied, transport and electronic equipment, machinery, pharmaceuticals, tex-
tiles, handicrafts, construction, and services such as IT, business, financial,
telecoms, distribution, etc. At the same time, given the uncertainty around
the pandemic relating to a phase II of the Coronavirus in autumn/ winter and
the time involved in developing a vaccine and getting it approved for human
consumption, the government must also invest in improving the country’s
COVID-19-related health infrastructure – both preventive and curative – on
a war footing. Supply-side Measures On the supply-side, easier availabil-

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ity of finance and streamlining of regulatory bottlenecks would go a long
way in expediting recovery in the aftermath of this pandemic, including via
trade. Despite marked improvements in the ease of doing business, India is
still ranked 77th amongst 190 countries on the World Bank’s Trading Across
Borders index. A vast majority of Indian firms continue to identify customs
and trade regulations as a major constraint. Similarly, despite a largely lib-
eral FDI regime, the country attracts less than 2 per cent of its GDP as
inward investment, suggesting that other investment climate and regulatory
issues remain a challenge for potential investors. Addressing these challenges
would also facilitate commercial presence or Mode 3 trade in services, which
is not only the most dominant mode for supplying services abroad but often
also a necessary precursor to cross-border or Mode 1 services trade. These
two modes together account for nearly 90 per cent of global trade in services,
thereby reflecting their overwhelming importance from a policy perspective.

8 Conclusion
The world is in the midst of a global pandemic and a deep economic crisis
that were unfathomable even just one year ago. Mourning every human loss,
countries relentlessly continue their efforts to protect lives while preserving
livelihoods. Never before has nearly half of the world population endured
lockdown conditions, and never before have so many people been asked to
change their daily activities and routines so quickly, with such consequences.
Changes to ways of working, producing and consuming have been sudden
and dramatic. All of this will make 2020 a year to be remembered for a long
time to come. Some changes that had already begun to take shape before
2020 now stand out starkly in light of the pandemic. For instance, trust
in multi-lateralism had already been fading, international trade appeared
to have reached a tipping point, climate change had become a more present
and pervasive concern and digital transformation was already well under way.
Then COVID-19 struck, originating in Asia and spreading first widely across
Europe and the Americas, rapidly evolving into a worldwide pandemic. The
pandemic has reinforced some of the trends which preceded it but has also
caused massive disruptions and reversed other trends. Global poverty is on
the rise for the First time since the Asian financial crisis in 1998. With
school closures, uneven access to home schooling and economic pressure on
families, progress in education, especially for girls, may experience a setback

11
of 20 years. This will have strong negative impacts on the productive capac-
ity of countries well into the future. This is also an enormous setback for
development aspirations and for the Sustainable Development Goals, which
had already been challenging to achieve before COVID-19 entered the pic-
ture. With restrictions on the movement of people, the massive decline in
air travel, the contraction of foreign direct investment and the deconjugation
of supply chains to reduce risk, the world also appears to be becoming less
globalized as the pandemic persists. Indeed – whether for better or for worse
– the degree to which some of these changes will become lasting will depend
on the policy choices made and actions taken going forward. The health
and economic crisis calls for new responses and new directions to change
course from the world’s pre-existing vulnerabilities that have aggravated the
pandemic’s effects. This report is an attempt to contribute to this under-
standing. The impact of COVID-19 across trade. and development has been
described with an eye to making this “new normal” a fertile ground for more
resilient, inclusive and sustainable development. The report’s aim is to sup-
port countries and the international community in dealing with the trade
and development challenges and opportunities that have emerged from this
crisis. Countries have to invest more in healthcare – both management and
facilities. New social and behavioural norms – “social distancing”, “wearing
masks”, “maintaining hygiene”, etc., are the new normal, and we have to
adjust with such new norms amid the pandemic. India has an important
role to play in the post Covid-19 world, and it is immensely useful for the
country to stay engaged in such global discussions. While there are substan-
tial challenges and concerns, India must resist the temptation for quick fixes
that do not address the underlying concerns and avoid permanent solution.
Structural reforms are must and should continue to focus on strengthening
the country’s economic fundamentals—only then can they contribute mean-
ingfully towards a more robust and resilient Indian economy.

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