Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Mr. Aniket Chandanshiv e Dr. Ravi Jaiswal
Mr. Aniket Chandanshiv e Dr. Ravi Jaiswal
Submitted By:
Shivansh Arora (Roll No 20192248)
PGDM (2019-2021)
DECLARATION
I, SHIVANSH ARORA being a student of PGDM of International School of Business
& Media hereby declare that the project report under the title “Fundamental and
Technical Analysis of FMCG sector” submitted to ISB&M for partial fulfillment of the
requirement for the award of the degree of PGDM (Finance & Marketing) is an
original work carried out by me, under the guidance of Dr Ravi Jaiswal. All due care
has been taken to keep this report error free and I sincerely apologize for any
unintended discrepancies that might have crept into this report. The matter embodied
in this report is a genuine work done by me to the best of my knowledge and belief
and has not been submitted before, neither to this College nor to any other
College/University for the fulfillment of the requirement of any course of study.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I take this opportunity to express my gratitude to the people who have been
instrumental in the successful completion of my internship. However, it would not
have been possible without the support and guidance of many individuals. I would
like to extend my most sincere thanks to all of such kind people who helped me to
give a final structure to this report.
First and foremost, I would like to thank International School of Business & Media,
Department of Finance for giving me an opportunity to work with Future Generali
India Insurance Company Limited as a Finance intern.
I would like to extend my heartiest thanks to Mr. Aniket Chandanshive for helping to
shape my skills and enhance my knowledge. It was a great experience to work
under the guidance of them without which the entire journey would have been next
to impossible.
Special thanks to Dr. Ravi Jaiswal for his guidance and continuous feedback which
helped me prepare this report.
Last but not the least; I would like extend my sincere thanks to all my peers who
worked with me in Future Generali India Insurance Company Limited (Finance Dept.)
and helped me throughout this entire journey of 2 months in the organization.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
5 OBJECTIVES 14
6 SCOPE 15
7 INTRODUCTION TO EQUITY 16
8 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 18
9 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 25
10 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 36
11 PESTEL ANALYSIS OF FMCG SECTOR 39
12 INTRODUCTION TO FMCG SECTOR 42
15 BIBLIOGRAPHY 67
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
It was indeed a great opportunity to work and learn under Future Generali Life
Insurance Company. The Objective of my project is “Technical and Fundamental
Analysis on FMCG sector” at FGLI. The summer internship project initially started
with the case studies like Lehman Brother’s case, Harshad Mehta scam, industry
specific scenarios from insurance sector, etc. to understand the historical financial
frauds in the economy and its impact.
After this I started with collection of data from various secondary sources like
newspapers, websites of the companies, their financial statement of records to
identify value contributors in the FMCG industry, the data collected was then
analyzed and interpretations were made on the set parameters. This helped me to
select 5 FMCG companies and further study the Fundamental and Technical analysis
for the same.
Fundamental analysis helps in long term investment decisions in the equity
whereas Technical analysis helps in Short term investment decisions.
After the collection of data fundamental analysis included study of the financial
statements of the companies, ratio analysis, cash flow statements, etc. whereas
technical analysis included studies like Bollinger Band theory, Relative strength index
(RSI), Candlestick Patterns, PSAR, Price-volume index, etc.
This report mainly focuses on providing suggestions to investors regarding stocks
i.e. whether to buy, sell or hold a particular stock in such a way that it benefits the
investor in Infrastructure segment.
The objective from the company’s perspective was to train the Interns for equity
investment decision and portfolio management and another motive was “Sales” Each
intern was assigned a target of 1 lakh (premium) and 5 different policies were given
for sales purpose. How insurance helps in tax saving and why people treat this
investment basket as tax saving instrument were the learning outcomes from this
assigned work.
1
Introduction to Insurance Industry
The insurance industry of India consists of 63 insurance companies of which 24 are
in life insurance business and 39 are non-life insurers. Among the life insurers, Life
Insurance Corporation (LIC) is the sole public sector company. Apart from that,
among the non-life insurers, there are seven public sector insurers. In addition to
these, there are 2 national re-insurer. Other stakeholders in Indian Insurance
market include agents (individual and corporate), brokers, surveyors and third party
administrators servicing health insurance claims. There are 24 life insurance and 33
non-life insurance companies in the Indian market who compete on price and
services to attract customers. There are two reinsurance companies. The industry
has been spurred by product innovation, vibrant distribution channels, coupled with
targeted publicity and promotional campaigns by the insurers.
Life Insurance in its modern form came to India from England in the year 1818.
Oriental Life Insurance Company started by Europeans in Calcutta was the first life
insurance company on Indian Soil. All the insurance companies established during
that period were brought up with the purpose of looking after the needs of
European community and Indian natives were not being insured by these
companies. However, later with the efforts of eminent people like Babu Muttylal
Seal, the foreign life insurance companies started insuring Indian lives. But Indian
lives were being treated as sub-standard lives and heavy extra premiums were
being charged on them. Bombay Mutual Life Assurance Society heralded the birth
of first Indian life insurance company in the year 1870, and covered Indian lives at
normal rates. Starting as Indian enterprise with highly patriotic motives, insurance
companies came into existence to carry the message of insurance and social
security to various sectors of society. Bharat Insurance Company (1896) was also
one of such companies inspired by nationalism. The Swadeshi movement of 1905-
1907 gave rise to more insurance companies. The United India in Madras, National
Indian and National Insurance in Calcutta and the Co-operative Assurance at
Lahore were established in 1906. In 1907, Hindustan Co-operative Insurance
Company took its birth in one of the rooms of the Jorasanko, house of the great
poet Rabindranath Tagore, in Calcutta. The Indian Mercantile, General Assurance
and Swadeshi Life (later Bombay Life) were some of the companies established
during the same period. Prior to 1912 India had no legislation to regulate insurance
business. In the year 1912, the Life Insurance Companies Act, and the Provident
Fund Act were passed. The Life Insurance Companies Act, 1912 made it
necessary that the premium rate tables and periodical valuations of companies
should be certified by an actuary. But the Act discriminated between foreign and
Indian companies on many accounts, putting the Indian companies at
disadvantage.
The first two decades of the twentieth century saw lot of growth in insurance
business. From 44 companies with total business-in-force as Rs.22.44 crore, it rose
to 176 companies with total business-in-force as Rs.298 crore in 1938. During the
mushrooming of insurance companies many financially unsound concerns were
also floated which failed miserably. The Insurance Act 1938 was the first legislation
governing not only life insurance but also non-life insurance to provide strict state
control over insurance business. The demand for nationalization of life insurance
industry was made repeatedly in the past but it gathered momentum in 1944 when
a bill to amend the Life Insurance Act 1938 was introduced in the Legislative
Assembly. However, it was much later on the 19th of January, 1956, that life
insurance in India was nationalized. About 154 Indian insurance companies, 16
non-Indian companies and 75 provident were operating in India at the time of
nationalization. Nationalization was accomplished in two stages; initially the
management of the companies was taken over by means of an Ordinance, and
later, the ownership too by means of a comprehensive bill. The Parliament of India
passed the Life Insurance Corporation Act on the 19th of June 1956, and the Life
Insurance Corporation of India was created on 1st September, 1956, with the
objective of spreading life insurance much more widely and in particular to the rural
areas with a view to reach all insurable persons in the country, providing them
adequate financial cover at a reasonable cost.
Market Size & Recent development
• Government's policy of insuring the uninsured has gradually
pushed insurance penetration in the country and proliferation
of insurance schemes.
• Gross premiums written in India reached Rs 5.53 trillion (US$ 94.48 billion) in
• FY18, with Rs 4.58 trillion (US$ 71.1 billion) from life insurance and Rs 1.51
trillion (US$ 23.38 billion) from non-life insurance. Overall insurance
penetration (premiums as % of GDP) in India reached 3.69 per cent in 2017
from 2.71 per cent in 2001.
• In FY19 (up to Jan 2019), premium from new life insurance business
increased
3.91 per cent year-on-year to Rs 1.59 trillion (US$ 22.04 billion). In FY19 (up
to Jan 2019), gross direct premiums of non-life insurers reached Rs 1.39
trillion (US$ 19.28 billion), showing a year-on-year growth rate of 12.65 per
cent.
The following are some of the major investments and developments in the
Indian insurance sector:
• As of November 2018, HDFC Ergo is in advanced talks to acquire Apollo
Munich Health Insurance at a valuation of around Rs 2,600 crore (US$
370.05 million).
• In October 2018, Indian e-commerce major Flipkart entered the insurance
space in partnership with Bajaj Allianz to offer mobile insurance.
• In August 2018, a consortium of WestBridge Capital, billionaire investor Mr
RakeshJhunjunwala announced that it would acquire India’s largest health
insurer Star Health and Allied Insurance in a deal estimated at around US$ 1
billion.
• In September 2018, HDFC Ergo launched ‘E@Secure’ a cyber-insurance
policy for individuals.
• Insurance sector companies in India raised around Rs 434.3 billion (US$ 6.7
billion) through public issues in 2017.
• In 2017, insurance sector in India saw 10 merger and acquisition (M&A)
deals worth US$ 903 million.
• India's leading bourse Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) will set up a joint
venture with EbixInc to build a robust insurance distribution network in the
country through a new distribution exchange platform.
4
PORTER FIVE FORCES MODEL
Threat of Entry
• Difficult to enter insurance industry as a small “START-UP” player due
to capital and regulatory requirements
• Large financial services companies such as banks or investment banks
offering insurance products
• Entrance of niche companies such as life settlement firms that buy
existing policies
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Bargaining power of buyers
• Individual consumer is not a major factor
• Brokers and distributors of Genworth products have more bargaining power
as to what products to sell to consumer’s availability of substitutes.
• Many substitutes in the insurance industry available to the buyers
• Corporates have more bargaining power than the individuals as they provide
large business.
Threats of substitutes
• There is no or low real threat of substitutes for the insurance industry.
However, PPF and PF can act as low level substitutes for the
insurance.
Industry Rivalry
• Highly competitive industry
• Large insurance company offer similar products to the buyers
• Companies with low costs, operating efficiency and superior customer
service will be more competitive
• Consolidation and merger activity among large companies.
New Policy
Disbursemen
t of fund to Collection of
customer premium
amount
Working cycle of
insurance
company
Redumption Fund
of portfolio collected to
with return invested
Builiding
portfolio of
collected
money
6
INTRODUCTION TO COMPANY
The moto of Future Generali India Life Insurance Company Limited is “Redefining
Today to Reimagine a better and sustainable Tomorrow - vital to an organization’s
existence.”
To achieve the target, they ensured that every decision and action, product and
process was redirected towards one overarching objective – continuously
improving customer experience.
They encourage people to think and act like customer experience officers to
address customer pain areas. They undertook regular customer feedbacks to
understand lags and build an ecosystem that simplifies processes right from
customer acquisition to claim settlement. They also invested in pioneering digital
initiatives and set up a dedicated digital team. They exited unviable geographies
and business segments to redirect their resources in core areas.
Introduction
Future Generali India Life Insurance Company Limited is a joint venture between
three leading groups: Future Group – A leading retailer in India, Generali Group
(Assucurazioni Generali)- A global insurance group that features among top 50*
smartest companies in the world and Industrial Investment Trust Limited (IITL) – A
leading investment company. It is a private general insurance company in India. It
is headquartered in Mumbai, India. It has started its operation from September
2007 and successfully acquired break-even in just the duration of 6 years of
operation. It received an ISO 9001:2008 certification in 2013 and ISO 27001:2013
Certification in 2014. The company has jointed its hand with many banks where 10
medium and small-size banks in Kolhapur and Sangli districts, which aims towards
penetrating the rural market of India. It also includes banks like UCO Bank, Bank of
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Maharashtra, Laxmi Vilas Bank and Nainital Bank. The company’s portfolio which
comprises insurance products and categorized within Personal, Commercial &
Social/Rural Insurance. Over 12.7 lakh of customer with the company has settled
more than 15.7 lakhs of claim till FY 2018. The key sector where firm is active like
Motor, Health, Travel, Home, Accident, PMFBY (Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima
Yojna), etc. The company has launched ‘Health Total’, it is a comprehensive health
insurance product in 2015. It also introduced a new micro insurance cover,
‘Sukshma Hospicash’ in 2016. In the same year, they started online exclusive
travel insurance products.
In 2016, FGII launched an application for motor claim surveyors for faster
settlement of motor claims which is named as i-MoSS.
In 2012, FGII insured the music concert by AR Rahman for Rs 4 crore. By FY 2017,
the company issued 372 film insurance policies, including the acclaimed film
Bahubali 2, which was insured for a sum of Rs 200 crore.
FGII is a partner of trust, embracing a customer led transformation their
acquisition of-
• Active customers = 16+ lakhs
• Branches = 127
• Employees =1900+
• Agents = 700+
• Corporate partner = 2000+
• Products = 250+
Strategies that enable them to deliver and maintaining customer-centric approach.
It has Superior customer experience and long-term relationships. Leveraging strong
foundation to strengthen business operations by building a multi-channel and multi-
location architecture, penetrate existing markets and expand to new ones to
Strengthen product portfolio and Cater to wide customer segments, building a
strong its platform to Streamline operations to improve efficiency and enhance
digital sales.
8
boost the growth of the economy government is putting emphasis towards building
road, power and railway. Make in India project provided impetus to the domestic
manufacturing sector. Without deviating the from the path of fiscal consolidation
government took many measures for rural market under its Union Budget. The debt
markets stayed buoyant in the financial year 2017-18 due to easing inflation,
reduction in interest rates by RBI and a delay in further rate hikes by US Fed.
India’s improving macroeconomic indicators, accommodative monetary policy,
thrust on structural reforms and steps towards fiscal consolidation indicate
a positive outlook for both equity and debt markets in financial year 2018-
19.
Company Snapshot
9
• Live the community
Build strong, sustainable and long-lasting relations in markets where we
operate.
• Be Open
Always ready to learn and look things from different perspective.
Diversified business offerings
Personal Commercial Social
Motor Property – Fire & allied perils, Farmers’ Package
•Health, Personal AOG •Cattle and Livestock
Accident perils, terrorism, burglary •Janata Personal
• Travel • Marine Accident
• Home • Engineering – Construction
• Lifestyle (Art, and
Wedding, Event, Operational insurance
Film • Liability
And Golfers • Employee Risks
Insurance) • Event
Strength Weakness
1. Known for its prudent investment 1. Small branch base
management 2. Low marketing
3. Insurance companies have a
2. Wide range of policies poor image when it comes to
3. International expertise and payment of dues
reputation of Generali group
4. Aggressive Marketing
Opportunity Threat
1. Growing rural market 1. Bajaj Allianz
2. Earning Urban Youth 2. Sahara Life Insurance
3. Cross selling through financial 3. Reliance Life Insurance
services such as banking
As of 2017, Future Generali has over 16+ lakh customers in 125+ locations across
India. They settle over 1,80,000 claims every year. They have around 2,000 active
corporate clients and over 7,000 agents.
• In 2012, FGII insured the music concert by AR Rahman for Rs 4 crore. By FY
2017, the company issued 372 film insurance policies, including the
acclaimed film Bahubali 2, which was insured for a sum of Rs 200 crore.
• The company launched ‘Health Total’, a comprehensive health insurance
product in 2015.
• It introduced a new micro insurance cover, ‘SukshmaHospicash’ in 2016. In
the same year, online exclusive travel insurance products were also launched
by the company.
• In 2016, FGII launched i-MoSS, an application for motor claim surveyors for
faster settlement of motor claims.
• In April 2016, the company tied up with 10 medium and small-size banks in
Kolhapur and Sangli districts, aimed towards increasing rural insurance
penetration.
• In January 2017, the company entered a corporate agency tie up with Bank of
Maharashtra to promote motor, home, shopkeeper and rural insurance
products at the 1,896 branches of the bank. It also entered into a tie-up with
UCO Bank in March 2017.
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Competitors: -
Bajaj Allianz:
Bajaj Allianz is a joint venture between Allianz AG one of the world's largest
insurance companies, and Bajaj Auto, one of the biggest 2 and 3-wheeler
manufacturers in the world. Bajaj Allianz is into both life insurance and general
insurance. Allianz Group is one of the world's leading insurers and financial
services providers. Founded in 1890 in Berlin, Allianz is now present in over 70
countries.
It is a joint venture between HDFC Ltd., India’s largest housing finance institution
and Standard Life Assurance Company, Europe's largest mutual life insurance
company. It was the first life insurance company to be granted a certificate of
registration by the IRDA on the 23rd of October 2000.
It is a joint venture between Tata Group and American International Group, Inc.
(AIG). Tata Group is one of the oldest and leading business groups of India. Tata
Group has had a long association with India's insurance sector having been the
largest insurance company in India prior to the nationalization of insurance. The
Late Sir Dorab Tata was the founder Chairman of New India Assurance Co. Ltd., a
group company incorporated way back in 1919.
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OBJECTIVES OF THE REPORT
• To provide an overview of the personal care sector and analyse the stocks of
that sector.
• To study about the some of the major players in the personal care segment,
which has good investment opportunities.
• To identify the top line and the bottom line of the companies selected under
FMCG sector and the factors that affect them to justify the current investment
in the selected stocks.
• To monitor and analyse the trends in movement and performance of stocks
• The report will be beneficial for the investors to know about the growth
prospects of Indian economy and the FMCG sector. Investors will understand
the various factors affecting FMCG sector and the impact of growth of FMCG
sector. This report will be beneficial in tracking the past performance of the
companies dealing in FMCG segment and the estimated future share price,
so that the investors can invest in a better option.
14
SCOPE OF THE STUDY
Equity Investments
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How to make investments in equity shares?
Investors can buy equity shares of a company from security market that is from
primary market or secondary. The primary market deals with issue of fresh securities.
It deals in government as well as corporate securities that helps them to raise
capital in order to meet fund requirements to undertake their operations. Investors
can buy shares of a company through Initial PublicOffering(IPO) when a company
decides to raise capital for the first time. Once the shares are issued to the general
public it is listed and traded in secondary market. Stock Exchanges acts as a
facilitator of trading of these shares. Interested person can buy shares of the
company of his choice from an existing shareholder who is willing to sell his shares
through these stock exchanges.
Equities have the potential to raise the value in multiples. It provides the
necessary growth to your investment. Researches in the past have proved that
some shares have in long terms have provided far superior returns as
compared to any other investment. But you cannot say that all equity
investments could provide higher returns. Equities have higher risk in
investment. One needs to analyze well before investment.
The number of investors is booming and so is the need for exploring the nature of
investments. Investors wish to take calculated and informed decisions, and this is
where the role of equity research begins. The purpose of equity research and the
researcher is manifold. To begin with, one gathers and analyses industry data and
financial models of a specific company or an industry.
It also involves understanding current market trends, both from the perspectives of
macro economy and micro economy, and report findings. Since the equity research
targets a specific audience, it is necessary to tailor the findings to the audience
demand.
17
Further, adequate stress is laid on the accuracy of information. If investors take
actions based on any kind of misinformation or misrepresentation, losses are
tremendous and harmful to both the investor and the company. Therefore, equity
analysts spend a considerable amount of time analyzing stocks and valuating
estimates.
• Equity Research plays a very critical role that fills the information gap
between the buyers and sellers of shares.
• Reason is that at all levels (individual or institutional) may not have
the resources or the capabilities to analyses every stock.
• Additionally, full information is not provided by the management due to which
further in-efficiencies are created and stocks trade below or above the fair
value.
• Equity Research analyst spend lot of time, energy and expertise to analyses
stocks, follow news, talking to the management and provide an estimate of
stock valuations.
• Also, equity research tries to identify the value stocks out of the massive
ocean of stocks and help the buyers to generate profits.
Fundamental Analysis
The end goal of performing the fundamental analysis is to produce a value that an
investor can compare with the security’s current price, with the aim of figuring out
what sort of position to take with the security’s current price, with the aim of figuring
out what sort of position to take with the security meaning if it is under - priced he
should buy and if it is overpriced he can short sell.
In fundamental analysis business’ financial statements, its management and
competitive advantage, its competitors and markets. When analyzing a stock two
approaches – bottom up analysis and top down analysis. Fundamental analysis is
performed on the historical and present data but with the goal of making financial
forecasts. The objective of which is-
• To determine the value of the stock and obtain its probable price.
• To make a projection of its business performance.
• To evaluate its management and make projected decisions.
On the basis of this the true intrinsic value of the share is determined. This is taken
to be the true value of the shares. If the intrinsic value of the share is higher than
the market price it is wise to buy the share, in case it is equal to the market price it
is advisable to hold the share and if it is less then the market price then sell the
share.
Qualitative factors
THE INDUSTRY
Each industry has difference in terms of its customers base, market share among
firms, industry wise growth, competition, regulation and business cycles. Learning
about how the industry works will give an investor a deeper understanding of a
company’s financial health.
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Market share
Analyzing the market share of any company enables to know the volume the
business. suppose a company possess 75% of the market share, it shows that it a
great control of market and is one of the giant market player. Market share is also
vital because company is able to gain economies of scale and is able to absorb
high fixed cost in case of capital intensive industry.
Customers
There are firms which deal with few customers, while few deals with millions. It is
said that if company relies on fewer customers for larger portion of its sales
because in case of loss of any customer could cause dramatically fall in revenue.
Industry growth
To examine the company’s growth potential of the firm, examine the amount of
customers in the overall market that will grow. In some markets there is a zero
growth rate which needs careful consideration. Every year if a company wants to
grow, it must add new sets of customers to its customer list. Eg- Automobile
industry can only grow if there is addition of new customers in their list every year.
Qualitative Factors
Before dividing into company’s financial statements, let’s take a look at some of the
qualitative aspects of the company. The list of these factors include-
Business Model
What the company does is the most important question. This is referred to as
business model of the company. What are the various sources of revenue for the
company is also the most important question? To get the overview of the
company’s business model, its annual report or company’s website can be
considered.
Competitive Advantage
The company can grow in long term only if it is able to survive the competition from
other players in the industry. Powerful competitive advantages such as Jio enjoy a
great growth rate and profits. When a company achieve competitive advantage, it
shareholders can be well rewarded for decades.
Management
A company relies on its management for its overall growth. Few believe that the
management is the most important aspect for investing in a company. Even the
best business models have failed in the past in case they are not well executed by
the management.
Management Discussion and Analysis(MD&A)
This can be seen at the beginning of the annual report. It is said that MD&A is
considered as the commentary of the management’s outlook. Sometimes the content
is worthy, or other is boilerplate. One way is to compare what management said in
the past years with what they are saying in the present. Have the earlier formed
strategies actually been implemented? You can view the last five years of MD&A.
Past Performance
Another good check the management’s capabilities is to check and see the
performance of executives in the recent past years. Identify the companies they
have worked in the past and do a search on those companies and their
performance.
Quantitative factors
Ratio Analysis
Ratios, by themselves, are not an end but only one of the means of understanding
the financial health of a business entity. Ratio analysis is not capable of providing
precise answers to all the problems faced by any business unit. Ratio analysis is
basically a technique of:
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Comparison with Projections:
In a business unit where system of budgetary control and forecast is in existence,
projected financial statements are usually drawn. Ratios calculated based on such
projected financial statements shall act as the standards with which the ratios
calculated from the present financial statements shall be compared. Variances shall
be calculated and analyzed by reasons and persons. It shall enable to take corrective
action wherever required.
Ratios of one unit may be compared with the ratios of another identical unit or with
the industry average at the same point of time. Such comparison is useful for
evaluating relative financial position of the unit vis-à-vis other units or industry.
While making such comparison, care must be taken regarding the difference of
accounting methods, policies, procedures and terminology being followed by
different units.
The price-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is the ratio for valuing a company that measures
its current share price relative to its per-share earnings. The price-earnings ratio is
also sometimes known as the price multiple or the earnings multiple.
The formula: P/E Ratio = Price per Share / Earnings Per Share
What it means: Think of the price-to-earnings ratio as the price you'll pay for $1 of
earnings. A very, very general rule of thumb is that shares trading at a "low" P/E
are a value, though the definition of "low" varies from industry to industry.
Earnings per share (EPS) is the portion of the company’s distributable profit which
is allocated to each outstanding equity share (common share). Earnings per share
is a very good indicator of the profitability of any organization, and it is one of the
most widely used measures of profitability.
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What it means: EPS when calculated over a number of years indicates whether the
earning power of the company has improved or deteriorated. Investors usually look
for companies with steadily increasing earnings per share.
PEG Ratio
The PEG ratio (price/earnings to growth ratio) is a valuation metric for determining
the relative trade-off between the price of a stock, the earnings generated per share
(EPS), and the company's expected growth. In general, the P/E ratio is higher for a
company with a higher growth rate. "The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly
priced will equal its growth rate", i.e., a fairly valued company will have its PEG
equal to 1. The formula:PEG Ratio = (P/E Ratio) / Projected Annual Growth in
Earnings per Share
What it means: The PEG ratio uses the basic format of the P/E ratio for a
numerator and then divides by the potential growth for EPS, which you'll have to
estimate. The two ratios may seem to be very similar but the PEG ratio is able to
take into account future earnings growth. A very generally rule of thumb is that
any PEG ratio below
1.0 is considered to be a good value.
Profit Margin
Net profit margin is the percentage of revenue left after all expenses have been
deducted from sales. The measurement reveals the amount of profit that a
business can extract from its total sales. The net sales part of the equation is gross
sales minus all sales deductions, such as sales allowances.
What it means: Profit margin calculates how much of a company's total sales flow
through to the bottom line. As you can probably tell, higher profits are better for
shareholders, as is a high (and/or increasing) profit margin.
Current Ratio
The current ratio is a liquidity ratio that measures a company's ability to pay short-
term and long-term obligations. To gauge this ability, the current ratio considers the
current total assets of a company (both liquid and illiquid) relative to that company's
current total liabilities.
What it means: Total liabilities and total shareholder equity are both found
on the balancesheet. The debt-to-equity ratio measures the relationship
between the amount of capital that has been borrowed (i.e. debt) and the
amount of capital contributed by shareholders (i.e. equity). Generally
speaking, as a firm's debt-to-equity ratio increases, it becomes more risky
because if it becomes unable to meet its debt obligations, it will be forced
into bankruptcy.
The formula: Inventory Turnover Ratio = Costs of Goods Sold / Average Inventory
What it means: If the company you're analysing holds has inventory, you
want that company to be selling it as fast as possible, not stockpiling it. The
inventory turnover ratio measures this efficiency in cycling inventory. By
dividing costs of goods sold (COGS) by the average amount of inventory
the company held during the period, you can discern how fast the company
have to replenish its shelves. Generally, a high inventory turnover ratio
indicates that the firm is selling inventory (thereby having to spend money to
make new inventory) relatively quickly.
Ratio of net credit sales to average trade debtors is called debtors turnover
ratio. It is also known as receivables turnover ratio. This ratio is expressed
in times.
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The formula: -Receivables turnover ratio = Annual net credit sales /
Average accounts receivable
What it means: No business can afford to make cash sales only thus
extending credit to the customers is a necessary evil. But care must be
taken to collect book debts quickly and within the period of credit allowed.
Otherwise chances of debts becoming bad and unrealizable will increase.
How effective or efficient is the credit collection? To provide answer debtors
turnover ratio or receivable turnover ratio is calculated.
What it means: Working capital is a measure of liquidity, and days working capital is
a measure that helps to quantify this liquidity. The more days a company has of
working capital, the more time it takes to convert that working capital into sales. In
other words, a high number is indicative of an inefficient company and vice versa.
• Bearish Harami
Let’s understand different pattern of chart and what it conveys. It helps one
to analyze the market better and reduces the risk.
Doji
In the above chart we can see the doji pattern commonly found in a
candlestick chart where different shares being traded. It is
characterized by being small in length—meaning a small trading
range—with an opening and closing price that are virtually equal.
A doji is a key trend reversal indicator. This is particularly true when there
is a high trading volume following an extended move in either direction.
When a market has been in an uptrend and trades to a higher high than
the previous three trading days, fails to hold that high, and closes in the
lower 10% of that day's trading range, there is a high probability of a
downtrend in the ensuing days. Likewise, when the market has been in a
27
downtrend and trades to a new low that's lower than the three previous
trading days, fails to hold that low, and closes in the upper 10% of that
day's trading range, there is a high probability of an uptrend in the ensuing
days.
4-Price Doji is a horizontal line indicating that high, low, open and close
were equal.
Neutral: Dojis form when the opening and closing prices are
virtually equal. Alone, dojis are neutral patterns.
Long-Legged: This doji reflects a great amount of indecision about
the future direction of the underlying asset.
Shooting Star and Inverted Hammer
In technical analysis, the Inverted Hammer candlestick pattern is the reverse
of the Hammer pattern. The pattern has one candle. The open, close, and
low are near the low of the pattern.
An Inverted Hammer pattern forms when the buyers push the stock price
higher against the sellers. However, the stock retraces and closes near the
open. The pattern reflects buying interest for technical, psychological, or
fundamental reasons. When the pattern forms in a downtrend, it suggests
a possible market bottom or change in trend.
So, it’s one of the reversal patterns.
A Shooting Star candlestick pattern has one candle. It looks like a shooting
star. The open, close, and low are near the low of the candlestick.
The Shooting Star candlestick pattern forms when buyers push the price
higher against the sellers. However, the stock falls and closes near the
low. The pattern reflects selling interest for psychological or fundamental
reasons. When the pattern forms in an uptrend, it suggests a possible
market top or change in trend. So, it’s a reversal candlestick pattern.
These patterns are used for trend identification. The Inverted Hammer
pattern is used as an entry point. The Shooting Star pattern is used as an
exit point. It’s advisable to use combination of patterns and indicators to
determine your trading strategy.
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Hanging Man and Hammer
The fact that prices were able to recover most of the losses throughout the
intraday reflects substantial buying interest for technical, psychological, or
fundamental reasons. When this happens in a downtrend, it points to a
possible bottom or change in trend.
As a result, it’s a reversal pattern.
The pattern has one candle. It’s considered a resistance or market peak.
The Hanging Man pattern forms when the stock price falls from the opening
price due to significant selling pressure. However, the stock retraces back
within the trading period. The price action shows selling pressure for
psychological or fundamental reasons. When the Hanging Man pattern
forms in an uptrend, it suggests a possible market top or change in trend.
So, it’s a reversal pattern.
The patterns are used to identify trends. The Hammer pattern can be used
as an entry point.
The Hanging Man pattern can be used as an exit point.
29
Gravestone: The long upper shadow suggests that the direction of the
trend may be nearing a major turning point. It is formed when the opening
and closing price of the underlying asset are equal and occur at the low of
the day.
Dragonfly: The long lower shadow suggests that the direction of the trend
may be nearing a major turning point. It is formed when the opening and
closing price of the underlying asset are equal and occur at the high of the
day.
mall uptrend in market but downward trend eventually starts forming. Then after multiple downward tren
Bearish Maru bow: Here sellers are active. They try to sell at lower price range as
it closes at very low price. This is a seller dominating market trend which impact a
downward trend in the market. So, selling decision to be taken.
30
Bullish Maru bow: Here buyers are active. They try to buy at lower price range as
it didn’t let price to close at higher amount. This is a buyer dominating market trend
which impact a upward trend in the market. So, buying decisions to be taken.
Bearish Engulfing: As we can see in the chart there is a small bullish upward
trend but eventually there is a higher bearish trend in market and suddenly there is
a collapse. Here we need to take selling decision.
Bullish Engulfing As we can see in the chart there is a small bearish downward
trend but eventually there is a higher bullish trend in market and suddenly there is a
rising build up. Here we need to take buying decision.
It is advisable that Technical is done for short term time period to cover the
risk but there might be some possibility when technical analysis can identify
some patterns of time frame and that can vary from several weeks to several
months and is deemed by many traders as a rare occurrence. Such patterns
are as: -
Rounding Bottom Candlesticks Pattern
The rounding top is a long-term forward pattern that is best suited for weekly
charts. It is also referred to as a saucer top, and represents a long consolidation
period that turns from a bullish bias to a bearish bias.
Rounding Bottom Candlesticks Pattern
The rounding bottom is a long-term reversal pattern that is best suited for weekly
charts. It is also referred to as a saucer bottom, and represents a long consolidation
period that turns from a bearish bias to a bullish bias.
The Cup with Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation
period followed by a breakout. It was developed by William O'Neil and introduced in
his 1988 book, how to Make Money in Stocks. As its name implies, there are two
parts to the pattern: the cup and the handle. The cup forms after an advance and
looks like a bowl or rounding bottom. As the cup is completed, a trading range
develops on the right-hand side and the handle is formed. A subsequent breakout
from the handle's trading range signals a continuation of the prior advance.
Head and Shoulder Top Candlesticks Pattern & Head and Shoulder Bottom
Candlesticks Pattern
A Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forms after an uptrend, and its completion
marks a trend reversal. The pattern contains three successive peaks with the
middle peak (head) being the highest and the two outside peaks (shoulders) being
low and roughly equal. The reaction lows of each peak can be connected to form
support, or a neckline. Under the study we also must understand the Bollinger band
and ATR. It is to understand the process of trends flow. It helps in identify future
trends more precisely.
Bollinger Band
Bollinger Bands are a type of statistical chart characterizing the prices
and volatility over time of a financial instrument or commodity, using a formulaic
method propounded by John Bollinger in the 1980s. Financial traders employ these
charts as a methodical tool to inform trading decisions, control automated trading
systems, or as a component of technical analysis. Bollinger Bands display a
graphical band (the envelope maximum and minimum of moving averages, similar
to Keltner or Donchian channels) and volatility (expressed by the width of the
envelope) in one two-dimensional chart.
The purposes of Bollinger Bands are to provide a relative definition of high and low
prices of a market. By definition, prices are high at the upper band and low at the
lower band. This definition can aid in rigorous pattern recognition and is useful in
comparing price action to the action of indicators to arrive at systematic trading
decisions.
The use of Bollinger Bands varies widely among traders. Some traders buy when
price touches the lower Bollinger Band and exit when price touches the moving
average in the center of the bands. Other traders buy when price breaks above the
upper Bollinger Band or sell when price falls below the lower Bollinger Band.
[4]Moreover, the use of Bollinger Bands is not confined to stock traders; options
traders, most notably implied volatility traders, often sell options when Bollinger
Bands are historically far apart or buy options when the Bollinger Bands are
historically close together, in both instances, expecting volatility to revert towards
the average historical volatility level for the stock.
The true range indicator is taken as the greatest of the following: current high less
the current low; the absolute value of the current high less the previous close; and
the absolute value of the current low less the previous close. The average true
range is then a moving average, generally using 14 days, of the true ranges.
The project is on the Fundamental and Technical analysis of the FMCG sectors.
Hence the complete study is based on the information and the news available
about the sector i.e. secondary data by various modes. The research is completely
based on the Fundamental and Technical analysis of the companies in personal
care segment.
Secondary data was basically collected from various sources such as Economic
times, Money Control, companies’ website through internet.
Though, primary data collection for preparing this project was not possible due to
time and money constraints. Therefore, secondary data has been used in the
report preparation.
The research on the sector and the companies in those sectors is explained in the
later part of the report.
The stocks were individually analyzed and then measured whether it would give best
returns if the funds were invested in those particular stocks.
While working on this project, daily stock market prices were being tracked and
also the annual reports of the particular companies were the basis for judging the
company’s performance in the past year.
Internet was a major source of information gathering while performing the research
as data was collected from various websites.
The knowledge thus gained from preliminary study forms the basis for future
detailed descriptive research. In the exploratory study, the various technical
indicators that are important for analyzing stocks were actually identified and
important ones were short listed.
RESEARCH METHODOLY USED IN THIS PROJECT
Descriptive Study:
The present study is descriptive study. Stock market has been the focus of study
for many researchers and investors due to increasing demand and profit in the
capital market and this research is based on the secondary data, I would try & find
out the trends prevailing in the infrastructure industry. The company taken into
research are:
• Colgate Palmolive(India)
• Dabur India
• Godrej Consumer Products
• Hindustan Unilever
• P&G Hygiene(PGHH)
The data analysis has been done using the Qualitative and Quantitative approach
and following are the indicators used for the data analysis:
Company Analysis:
This part of the research is done using the calculation of financial ratios and /or
complex forecasting of profits and understanding the impact of upcoming projects
on the profit of the company. Analysis gives a basis for the valuation of the shares
and decisions on when to buy, hold or sell shares. The main tools used for the
company analysis is the ratio analysis of company and competitors.
Technical analysis:
A method of evaluating stocks by analyzing statistics generated by market activity,
such as past prices and volume. Technical analysis to measure a stock intrinsic
value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest
future activity. Technical analysis believe that the historical performance of stocks
37
and markets are indications of future performance. Technical analysis report is
used for short term investment. Use of technical charts such as Bollinger Band,
Relative Strength Index, PSAR, Candlesticks, Price-Volume Index, etc.
Data Collection:
The secondary data is collected from the annual reports of the company, relevant
textbooks on the subject matter and company’s official website. The analysis is
based on secondary data collected from various organizational database, websites,
newspaper and other necessary official records, books& magazines.
LIMITATIONS
In present when election is going on, we have seen hardly change in petrol prices.
Whereas in international market the prices of crude are increasing rapidly. It is
being told that the prices are being taken into consideration according to the
international market seems to be a partial myth. It is obvious that company takes lot
of balance to go under higher operational costs which may cause the firm
negatively.
On the other hand, Chemical Industry is a very vast industry which covers an
enormous market segments like FMCG, Construction Sites, Pharmacy, Energy
Sector and so on. The rapid growth in technology had increased the demand of
production for such chemicals which can deliver a great product in the market. This
industry acts like pharma sector, shares changes rapidly. This make an investors to
earn high and loose too much.
PESTEL Analysis for Stock Exchange in FMCG Sector
POLITICAL
The capital market of India is very vulnerable. India has been politically instable in
the past but it is a little politically stable now-a-days. the political instability of the
country has a very strong impact on the capital market. The share market of India
changes as the political changes took place. The BSE Index, SENSEX goes up and
down with any kind of small and big political news, like, if there is news that a
political party has withdrawn its support from the ruling party, and then the capital
market will go down with a bang. The capital market of India is too weak and is
based on speculations. The political stability of the country is very important for the
stability and growth of capital market in India. The political imbalance or balance of
the country is the major factor in deciding the capital market of India. The political
factors include:
• employment laws
• tax policy
• trade restrictions and tariffs
• political stability
ECONOMIC
The economic measures taken by the government of India has a very strong
relationship with the capital market. Whenever the annual budget is announced the
capital market goes up and down with the economic policies of the government. If
the policies are supportive to the companies then the capital market takes it positively
and if there is any other policy that is not supportive and it is not
welcomed then the capital market goes down. Like, in the case of allocation of 3-G
spectrum, those companies that got the license for 3-G, they witnessed sharp
growth in their share values so the economic policies play a major part in the
growth and decline of the capital market and again if there is relaxation on any kind
of taxes on items of automobile industry then the share of automobile sector goes up
and virtually strengthen the capital market. If we study Economic crisis of 2008, it
also taught us how world market crashed. A lesson to world investors which
happen due to the credit system in US policies. The economic factors include:
• inflation rate
• economic growth
• exchange rates
• interest rates
SOCIAL
India is a country of unity in diversity. India is socially rich, but the capital market is
not very attached with the social factors. Yes, there is some relation between the
social factors with the capital market. If there is any big social factor then to some
extent it affects the capital market but small social factors don’t impact at all. Like,
there was opposition of reliance fresh in many cities and many stores were closed.
The share prices of the reliance fresh went down but the impact was on and individual
firm there was not much impact on the capital market on a whole the social factors
have not much of impact on the capital market in India. The social factors include:
• emphasis on safety
• career attitudes
• population growth rate
• age distribution
• health consciousness
TECHNOLOGICAL
The technological factors have not that much effect on the capital market. India is
technological backward country. Same as social factors, technological factor can
have an effect on an individual form but it cannot have a big impact on a whole of
capital market. The Bajaj got a patent on its dts-i technology and launched it in its
new bike but it does not effect on capital market. The technological change in India
is always on a lower basis and it doesn’t affect on country as a whole.
R&D activity
• technology incentives
• rate of technological change
• automation
ENVIORNMENTAL FACTORS
Initially The environmental factors don’t play a vital role in the capital market. But
the time has changed, and people are eco-friendlier. This is really bothering them
that if any firm or industry is environment friendly or not. An increasing number of
people, investors, corporate executives are paying importance to these facts, the
capital markets still see the environment as a liability. They belie that it is of no use
for their strategy. The environmental performance is even under-valued by the
markets.
LEGAL FACTORS
Legal factors play an important role in the development and sustain the capital
market. Legal issues relating to any industry or firm decides the fate of the capital
market. If the govt. of India or the parliament introduces a new law that can affect
the running of the industry then the industry will be demotivated and this
demonetization will lead to the demonization of the investors and will result in the
fall of capital market. Like after the Hardhat Mehta scam, new rules and regulations
were introduced like PAN card was made necessary for trading, if any investor was
investing too much money in a small firm, then the investors were questioned etc.
These regulations were meant to maintain transparency in the capital market, but at
that time, investment was discouraged. Legal factors are necessary for the
improvement and stability of the capital market.
Introduction to FMCG Sector
The Indian FMCG sector is the fourth largest sector in the economy with an
estimated size of Rs. 1,300 billion. The sector has seen tremendous average
annual growth of about 11% per annum over the last decade. In India, the scenario
is quite different in comparison to developed nations where the market is dominated
by few large players, whereas FMCG market in India is highly competitive and a
significant part of the market includes unorganized players selling unbranded and
unpackaged products. Approximately 12-13 million retail stores exist across India,
the large percentage of which around 9 million are kirana stores. India FMCG
sectors comprises of few significant characteristics like well-connected distribution
network, high level of competition between the organized and unorganized FMCG
players, and low operational cost. In India, FMCG companies have privilege of
having easy availability of raw materials, cheaper labor costs and presence across
the entire value chain gives India a competitive advantage. 118 Products which
have a swift turnover and relatively low cost are known as Fast Moving Consumer
Goods (FMCG). FMCG items are those which generally get replaced within a year.
Examples of FMCG commonly include the range of daily consumed items such as
toiletries, soap, detergents, cosmetics, oral care products, shaving products,
packaged food products and digestives as well as other non-durables such as
bulbs, batteries, paper products, glassware and plastic goods. FMCG may also
include pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, etc.
Indian population is spreading and becoming wealthy day by day, particularly the
middle class and the rural segments, offers immense opportunity which is left
untapped to FMCG players. Growth effect will be seen from product customization
in the matured product categories like skin care, processed and packaged food,
mouth wash etc. In India, many MNCs have made their presence through their
subsidiaries (HUL, Reckitt Benckiser, P&G) and the companies launches innovative
products from their parent’s portfolio in the market regularly to ensure the steady
growth. India is an agriculture based economy and has a varied agro-climatic
42
condition which offers extended raw material base suitable for many FMCG sub
sections like food processing industries etc. India is one among those countries
which has the highest production of livestock, milk, spices, sugarcane, cashew, and
coconut and has the second highest production of wheat, rice, vegetables and
fruits. Similarly, India has an abundant supply of caustic soda and soda ash, the
major raw materials required to manufacture soaps and detergents, which helps
companies manufacturing soaps and detergents to grow and prosper. The easy
accessibility and availability of these raw materials gives India an additional edge
over other countries.
43
modernization, the lifestyle has changed drastically, consumers have more
disposable incomes which give greater product choice and availability of the
products give them freedom to purchase. Moreover, people are becoming more
alert and aware about personal grooming. The leading player in this segment is
Hindustan Unilever with a market share of ~54 percent, CavinKare occupies
second position with market share of ~12 per cent and Godrej at third with a
market share of ~3 percent. The oral care market can be categorized into various
sub- segments with toothpaste -60 percent; toothpowder -23 percent; toothbrushes
-17 percent. Colgate-Palmolive is the leader of this segment with market share of
~49 percent, while HUL stands at second position with market share of ~30
percent. In toothpowders market, Colgate and Dabur are the leading players.
Food and Beverages: This segment comprises of the food processing industry-
packaged foods, health beverage industry- bread and biscuits, chocolates &
confectionery, Packed Mineral Water and ice creams. The three largest consumed
categories of packaged foods are packed tea, biscuits and soft drinks. Tea market
dominates the Indian hot beverage market. Unorganized players enjoy the major
share of tea market. Leading players of organized tea market are HUL and 121
Tata Tea. Major players in food segment are HUL, Amul, Dabur, Nestle, ITC and
Godrej.
• Presence of wide distribution networks and channel members in both urban and
rural areas
• Participation of well-known branded companies in FMCG sector.
• India is the largest milk producer in the world, yet the percentage of
processed milk is very low around 15 per cent. The organized liquid milk
business is in its early stage and also possesses the potential of long-term
growth. Even there is huge investment opportunities in value-added products
like desserts, puddings etc
• Only about 10-12 per cent of output is processed and consumed in packaged
form, thus highlighting the huge potential
• With booming per capita incomes and growing awareness among rural
masses, the growth potential is huge.
• Smaller packs and sachet packing have made the product easy to buy and
lower price are also likely to drive potential up.
• Rural demand etc.
Threats:
45
Top Players in FMCG sector:
• Nestle India
• GCMMF (Amul)
• Dabur India
• Proctor and Gamble Hygiene & Healthcare
• Marico Industries
• Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd.
• Godrej Consumers Product Ltd
• Parle Agro.
The Indian FMCG sector is the fourth largest sector in the economy with a total
market size in excess of US$ 13.1 billion. Multinationals have made a strong
presence and is characterized by an intense competition between the organized
and unorganized segments, well connected distribution network, large number of
channel members and low operational cost. In India, companies enjoy the
advantage of having cheaper labor supply, availability of key raw materials and
presence across the entire value chain gives India a competitive advantage. The
FMCG market is having a bright future in India as per studies. Per capita
consumption/expenditure as well as penetration level in most product categories
like hair wash, packaged foods, jams, skin care, toothpaste etc in India is low 127
indicating the immense opportunity which is left untapped. Indian population is
mushrooming, and it is providing opportunities to multinationals as well as the
domestic players to grow. In India, the middle class and the rural segments,
presents an opportunity to producers of branded products to convert consumers to
branded products and this make-shift from unbranded to branded indicates huge
potential to grow in the same industry. Growth is also likely to come from consumer
'upgrading' in the matured product categories.
• Indian FMCG sector is contributing Rs. 2 trillion in the total economy with
rural India contributing to a third of revenues.
• As per a study conducted by Booz & Company, FMCG sector is expected to
grow in the
• Range of 12% to 17% up to 2020 and could touch a market size between Rs.
4,000 to Rs. 6,200 billion by 2020. Consumer preferences in rural markets have
shown a paradigm shift over the last few years. Their consumption basket looks
very similar to that of urban counterparts. Premium products are replacing
basic versions and brands are making their presence felt. Nielsen estimates
that the FMCG market in rural India will mark US$ 100 billion by 2025, from
the current level of US$ 12 billion. Moreover, the Government's efforts to
improve the efficiency of welfare programs with cash transfers will further
boost rural consumption; it plans to deposit US$ 570 billion in the accounts of
100 million poor families by 2014.
• The rural FMCG market in India has grown 15% in 2011 (Nielsen Report,
2012). The Indian rural consumer market grew 25% in 2008 and reached
US$ 425 billion in 2010-11 128 with 720-790 million customers (Quarterly
Report, CII Techno Pak, 2011). According to FICCI Techno Pak Report 2009,
FMCG industry is projected to grow by 12% and reach a size of US $ 43
billion by 2013 and US $ 74 billion by 2018. During the year under review, the
FMCG industry continued on a steady growth trajectory. Riding on continued
demand for branded food products, personal care, household care, baby care
and OTC products, the Indian FMCG sector crossed the Rs. 2-trillion mark in
fiscal 2012- 13, as per AC Nielsen.
Future growth in the FMCG sector is expected to be driven by:
47
• Shift to branded products from unbranded products: Current level of
unorganized market in some of the FMCG categories bodes well for future
volume growth of branded products.
• Growth potential in rural markets.
FMCG future has a great potential and is going to become a huge Rs 400,000-
crore industry by 2020. A Booz & Company research study reveals the trends that
will shape its future. Considering the above research study, the anti-ageing
skincare category blossomed five times between period 2007 and 2008. 129
Today, it has become a very lucrative and fastest-growing segment in the skincare
market. Procter & Gamble ‘s premium anti-ageing cream Olay, covered 20 per cent
of the market within a year of its launch in 2007 and today leads the market with 37
per cent share. Around ten years ago, no one had predicted the ready acceptance
for anti-ageing lotions and creams. Similarly, Indian market didn’t expect that Indian
consumers would take oral hygiene seriously. Indian consumers have become very
sensitive when it comes to precautionary measures for the safety of their oral
organs. Mouth rinsing is picking up as a habit among Indian consumers.
Mouthwash penetration is growing at 35 per cent a year. Even Shampoo category
has gained a good momentum in rural areas and it was not predicted. Rural
penetration of shampoos increased to 46 per cent last year. Consumption patterns
have revolutionized in the last five to ten years. The consumer is trading newer
experiences and is trying innovative things every day. He is looking for products
with better quality, functionality, price, value for money etc.
According to a recent published report by Booz & Company for the Confederation
of Indian Industry (CII), called FMCG Roadmap to 2020: The Game Changers
points out the key growth drivers for the Indian fast moving consumer goods
(FMCG) industry in the past ten years and identifies the big trends and factors that
will impact its future. FMCG sector has been booming very fast and has seen
robust year-on- year growth of approximately 11 per cent in the last decade, almost
tripling in size from Rs 47,000 crore in 2000-01 to Rs 130,000 crore now (it
accounts for 2.2 per cent of the country ‘s GDP). In last 5 years, the FMCG sector
has seen tremendous growth at almost 17 per cent annually since 2005. It identifies
robust GDP growth, increased income in rural areas, opening up of rural markets,
growing urbanization along with evolving consumer lifestyles and buying behaviors
as the key drivers of this growth. It has been predicted that the FMCG industry is
set to see a boom in its annual growth and will grow at least 12 per cent annually to
become Rs 400,000 crore in size by 2020. Even we can experience brighter future
48
if some of the factors play out favorably, say, infrastructure investments pick up,
GDP grows a little faster, there is more efficient spending on government subsidy,
the government removes bottlenecks such as the goods and services tax (GST)
and so on, growth can be significantly higher. It could be as high as 17 per cent,
leading to an overall industry size of Rs 620,000 crore by 2020. The FMCG sector
is set for rapid growth over the next 10 years, and by 2020, the industry is expected
to be bigger in size, more economic, highly responsible and more tuned to its
customers. According to the facts based on research on industry evolutions in other
markets and discussions with industry experts and practitioners, Booz & Company
has identified some important trends and explored few factors that will change the
fortune of the industry in coming next ten years.
50
Chick Shampoo, Re 1 Hajmola packets. But increasingly the demand will be high
for those products which delivers more value and contains nutrition (vitamins,
proteins etc.) and can be served as a meal. PepsiCo and Tata, big multinationals
are working on such products. The rural BOP population comprises about 78
percent of the total population. The segment is becoming an important source of
consumption by moving beyond the survival mode. As a result of rising incomes,
the growth of FMCG market in rural areas at 18 per cent a year has exceeded that
of the urban markets at 12 134 per cent. However, maximum demand for FMCG is
generated from urban areas while the rural market generates only 34 per cent
demand of the FMCGs, given the current growth rates and increasing trend, its
share is expected to rise to 45-50 per cent by 2020. It will require highly customized
products at affordable prices with the potential of large volume supplies. Various
categories of products such as fruit juices, skin creams and sanitary pads which
had minimal demand in the rural markets earlier have suddenly making its mark.
While most FMCG players have made their presence in rural areas and
successfully making the products available to cater the needs of rural masses, the
next agenda of growth is expected to come from increasing category penetration,
development of customized products and up-trading rural consumers towards
better quality and higher price products.
4. Increasing Globalization: Companies are enjoying the freedom of doing
business in India and they are taking it as an opportunity to expand in a big way.
Leading MNCs have taken the advantage of operating in the country for years
given the liberal policy environment, Tier 2 and 3 global players will see the
competition in coming next 10 years. In addition, larger Indian companies are
exploiting the opportunities internationally and also have an access to more global
brands, globally recognized products and fair operating practices for international
standards.
5. Decentralization: Despite the complexity of the Indian market (languages,
cultures, distances) the market has mainly operated in a homogenous set-up.
Increased scale and 135 spending power will result in more fragmented and
tailored business models (products, branding, operating structures).
6. Growing Modern Trade:Modern trade share will expand rapidly in coming years
andis predicted to account for nearly 30% by 2020. This channel will fulfill the
objectives of the existing traditional trade (8 million retail stores which will continue
to grow) and ensures distribution through its carry & forward (C&F) model as well
as more ways to interact with the consumer.
7. Focus on Sustainability: Changes in climatic conditions globally, increasing
scarcity of many natural resources (e.g. water, oil) and consumer awareness (e.g.
8. waste) are leading to increased concerns for the environment. Companies are
getting pressure due to involvement of various stakeholders for being
environmentally responsible – from government (through policy) to consumers
(through brand choice) and NGOs (through awareness).
8. Technology as a Game Changer: Technology has become more advanced
with the economic development. Increased and relevant functionality coupled with
lower costs will enable technology deployment to drive significant benefits and
allow companies to address the complex business environment. This will be seen
both in terms of efficiencies in the back-end processes (e.g. supply chain, sales) as
well as the front-end (e.g. consumer marketing).
9. Favorable Government Policy: Nowadays government policies have become
liberal for companies to operate in India, they have freedom to export outside India
and can import the 136 raw-materials and finished products from foreign countries.
Liberal government policies have helped in creating a more suitable operating
environment. This will be achieved by pushing the demand side upwards through
increased income and education and parallel supporting the supply side by
removing bottlenecks and encouraging investments in infrastructure. The effect of
many of these change drivers – technology, government policy, consumers, and
channel partners – will impact the business environment within the country.
Winning in this new world will require cementing and enhancing current capabilities
and building new ones to bridge gaps.
Another big trend that has been occurring is the emerging idea of many Indians. It
is to be noted that despite having complexities in culture, tradition, language, belief
and long distances, companies consider the Indian market as a homogenous
market. One product is used for the entire country — the same Dabur Amla Hair Oil
for Rajasthan and West Bengal, or the same Cinthol soap for Punjab and Uttar
Pradesh.
Besides, same advertisements are shown on television for these products across
the country. Now, Major FMCG players have realized the fact that India is no more
a homogenous market and the 137 taste, preference, life style of consumers vary
significantly. Various researches have predicted that the economic growth of few
states in India will exceed the growth rate and total economic size of other
countries. For example, by 2020, Maharashtra ‘s GDP will exceed that of Greece,
Belgium, and Switzerland, and Uttar Pradesh ‘s economic size will exceed that of
Singapore and Denmark.
We will see companies launching different products for different geographical
regions within the same country. Hindustan Unilever launched teas which has a
completely different taste in 2 different states. Pepsi has a different product in
Andhra Pradesh which is not sold anywhere else. Earlier, companies used
differentiation strategy at the country level; now they are using it at the state level.
FMCG players are adopting regional approach and they have to grow “regional” in
their thinking and move towards an increasingly decentralized operating model in
India. As consumer tastes and preferences differ across states, companies can
adopt a regional strategy in terms of product ingredients, channel of distribution,
positioning, promotion and marketing campaign. Overall, regionalization or
decentralization will be used an important tool for FMCG players for covering deep
interiors of rural area.
MNC presence across the entire value chain has made the FMCG industry more
competitive and stronger in terms of brand building. It has been predicted that the
FMCG market will touch the figures of US$ 33.4 billion in 2015 from US $ 11.6
billion in 2003. FMCG companies are targeting the middle class and the rural
segments of the Indian population as they consider them to be the promising
market for developing their business and give producers the opportunity to convert
them to branded products. Most of the FMCG categories like Chywanprash, Jams,
toothpaste, hair colors, skin care etc., in India, have low penetration level as well as
low per capita 138 consumptions, but the potential for growth is huge. The big firms
are getting the momentum and are growing bigger while small-time companies are
catching up the speed to grow as well.
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(2)India's rural markets cover more than 6 lakh villages and the untapped market
provides several opportunities. The ratio of urban rural split in consumer spending
stands at 9:11, even in Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) have witnessed more
than 50% of growth in its Rural and Semi-Urban Segments in 2012 which was
projected to grow at an CAGR of 10% to carry forward its market size to over
Rs.1,06,300 crores from level of Rs. 87,900 crores in 2010, according to an
analysis carried out by the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of
India (ASSOCHAM). Rural consumers have been benefitted from government
subsidies and rebates which have helped in rising their disposable incomes, with
changing life- style the consumption level in small towns are meeting with larger,
more affluent towns. Though the middle class consumers who are affluent have
tendency to spend often higher than that of their big-city counterparts.
ANALYSIS & INTERPRETATION OF TOP FMCG COMPANIES
COMPANIES NAMES
• Colgate Palmolive(India)
• Dabur India
• Godrej Consumer Products
• Hindustan Unilever
Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd was incorporated in the year 1937. In the year 1983, the
company introduced their successful product Colgate Plus toothbrush in the market. In the
year 1988, CPIL received a licence for producing 24,000 tonnes per annum of fatty acids.
They also registered with DGTD for production of 30,000 tonnes of toilet soap per annum.
In June 1988, the company established a wholly owned subsidiary at Hetanda in Nepal to
manufacture the toothpaste and tooth powder initially.
In the year 1991, the company launched new Colgate Gel Toothpaste, Palmolive Extra Care
and new Palmolive soap. They also re-launched a high quality Colgate Plus and other
toothbrushes. In the year 1994, the company acquired the oral hygiene business of
Hindustan Ciba-Geigy Ltd.
In the year 1996, the company introduced the Colgate fresh stripe toothpaste and
Palmolive naturals soap in personal care products segments, Keratin Treatment Shampoo
and Palmolive optima in Hair care segment. Also, they established a modern facility at
Aurangabad to manufacture Dicalcium phosphate, a key ingredient for toothpaste. In the
year 1998, the company launched Colgate Double Protection toothpaste for the entire
family. They launched the ad campaign for their new product Colgate Double Protection
toothpaste in competition with rival brand Pepsodent from the Hindustan Lever stable.
In the year 1999, the company launched three new products, such as Colgate Double
Protection, Colgate Total and Colgate Sensation. They started a new research and
development centre, a manufacturing facility in Nepal. Also, they completed a dicalcium
phosphate facility in Aurangabad.
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In the year 2000, the company introduced two new variants to their Palmolive Naturals
soap range and revitalised their sandalwood soap. Also, they launched two new variants
in their Palmolive Naturals range of beauty soap lime and milk cream. The company re-
launched their Colgate Gel as Colgate Fresh Energy Gel. During the year, the company
entered into a strategic tie-up with Calcutta-based First-net Solutions Ltd for joint sales
promotion of Colgate Fresh Energy Gel toothpaste on the Web portal called
www.yantram.com. They made a foray into a new category of herbal care with the
launch of Colgate Herbal touted to be a vehicle for increasing the company's rural market
penetration over a period of time.
During the year 2000-01, the company launched Colgate Herbal Toothpaste, Economy
Toothpaste, Colgate Zig Zag Toothbrush, Colgate Navigator Toothbrush and Transparent
Skin Care Soap in the year market. They came out with a mega promotion, 'Colgate ke
andar kya hai', which was one of the key drivers in strengthening the consumer bond
with the Company's oral care and personal care brands. During the year 2001-02, the
company re-launched Colgate Fresh Energy Gel with a refreshing falvour in a unique first-
of-its king transparent tube and economy toothpaste.
SWOT ANALYSIS
STRENGTHS WEAKNESS
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DABUR INDIA
Dabur India Ltd. is one of India’s leading FMCG Companies with Revenues of over Rs
8,500 Crore & Market Capitalisation of over Rs 72,500 Crore. Building on a legacy
of quality and experience of over 135 years, Dabur is today India’s most trusted
name and the world’s largest Ayurvedic and Natural Health Care Company.
Dabur India is also a world leader in Ayurveda with a portfolio of over 250
Herbal/Ayurvedic products. Dabur's FMCG portfolio today includes five flagship
brands with distinct brand identities -- Dabur as the master brand for natural
healthcare products, Vatika for premium personal care, Hajmola for
digestives, Réal for fruit juices and beverages and Fem for fairness bleaches and
skin care products.
Dabur today operates in key consumer product categories like Hair Care, Oral Care,
Health Care, Skin Care, Home Care and Foods. The ayurvedic company has a wide
distribution network, covering 6.7 million retail outlets with a high penetration in
both urban and rural markets.
Dabur's products also have huge presence in the overseas markets and are
today available in over 100 countries across the globe. Its brands are highly
popular in the Middle East, SAARC countries, Africa, US, Europe and Russia. Dabur's
overseas revenue today accounts for over 27% of the total turnover.
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SWOT ANALYSIS
STRENGTHS WEAKNESS
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The Company has about 21,000 employees and has sales of INR 38,273 crores (the
financial year 2019-20). HUL is a subsidiary of Unilever, one of the world’s leading
suppliers of Food, Home Care, Personal Care and Refreshment products with sales
in over 190 countries and an annual sales turnover of €52 billion in 2019. Unilever
has over 67% shareholding in HUL.
SWOT ANALYSIS
STRENGTHS WEAKNESS
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Fundamental analysis of FMCG Sector
Industry Analysis
SR. COMPANY NAME P/E EPS INDUSTRAIL LTPT RANK
AVERAGE
1 Colgate Palmolive 47.55 23.06 58.75 18.66 2
2 Dabur India 59.21 5.79 58.75 5.83 4
3 Godrej Consumer 77.51 14.06 58.75 18.54 3
Products
4 Hindustan Unilever 58.75 23.40 58.75 23.4 1
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS-
Price to earning ratio-
PE ratio explains that to earn Rs.1 how a person actually has to pay. Here the PE
ratio is written by the
PE= PRICE/EPS
LTPT-
LTPT is long term price target. LTPT is the term where the companies which are
selected as large cap companies will have their future values. Those FV can be
more and can also be less depending upon the over valuation and under valuation
of the stock. If company A is been over brought in the market then there is a
probability that the price in the long term may fall and say if company B is less
valued as compared to its capabilities then there is a high profitability that the
stock price may rise in the future.
LTPT=EPS*Industrial average.
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RATIO ANALYSIS –
CURRENT RATIO
SR. COMPANY NAME 2020 2019 2018 AVERAGE RANK
1 Colgate Palmolive 1 1 1 1 2
2 Dabur India 2 1 1 1.33 1
3 Godrej Consumer Products 1 1 1 1 2
4 Hindustan Unilever 1 1 1 1 2
Analysis:
Standard current ratio is 2:1. The current ratio helps investors and creditors
understand the liquidity of a company and how easily that company will be able
to pay off its current liabilities. Looking at the data we can say that Dabur India is
the only that has the highest Current Ratio although even it does not have the
standard ratio.
QUICK RATIO –
SR. COMPANY NAME 2020 2019 2018 AVERAGE RANK
1 Colgate Palmolive 1 1 1 1 1
2 Dabur India 1 1 1 1 1
3 Godrej Consumer Products 1 1 1 1 1
4 Hindustan Unilever 1 1 1 1 1
Analysis:
Standard quick ratio is 1:1 and it indicates the immediate solvency. Higher quick
ratios are more favourable for companies because it shows there are more quick
assets than current liabilities. A company with a quick ratio of 1 indicates that
quick assets equal current assets. This also shows that the company could pay off
its current liabilities without selling any long-term assets. Looking at the three
years data of all the companies we can conclude that all the companies have the
desired ratio and can pay off their debts really quickly.
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RETURN ON ASSETS -
SR. COMPANY NAME 2020 2019 2018 AVERAGE RANK
1 Colgate Palmolive 31 % 30 % 26 % 29 % 2
2 Dabur India 15 % 17 % 16 % 16 % 3
3 Godrej Consumer Products 10 % 17 % 12 % 13 % 4
4 Hindustan Unilever 33 % 32 % 29 % 31.33 % 1
Analysis:
Higher ratio is more favourable to investors because it shows that the company is
more effectively managing its assets to produce greater amounts of net income. A
positive ROA ratio usually indicates an upward profit trend as well. Here the
company should have positive and higher ROA proves that the Hindustan Unilever
is in a better state than the other companies and hence the investment should be
done in Hindustan Unilever on a priority basis.
Analysis:
The return on capital employed ratio shows how much profit employed capital
generates. Obviously, a higher ratio would be more favorable because it means that
more profits are generated by each rupee of capital employed. So we can
conclude that Hindustan Unilever has higher return on capital employed
compared to other companies.
RETURN ON EQUITY-
SR. COMPANY NAME 2020 2019 2018 AVERAGE RANK
1 Colgate Palmolive 51 % 54 % 44 % 49. 66 % 2
2 Dabur India 22 % 26 % 24 % 24 % 3
3 Godrej Consumer Products 19 % 21 % 26 % 22 % 4
4 Hindustan Unilever 82 % 77 % 72 % 75.33 % 1
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Analysis:
Return on equity measures how efficiently a firm can use the money from
shareholders to generate profits and grow the company. Higher ratios are almost
always better than lower ratios, but have to be compared to other companies’
ratios in the industry. Here Hindustan Unilever is having decreasing return on
equity and Colgate Palmolive and Dabur India have a stable return on equity. So
here we suggest investing in Hindustan Unilever inspite of decreasing returns it
has the highest returns.
Analysis:
Earning per share is the same as any profitability or market prospect ratio. Higher
earnings per share are always better than a lower ratio because this means the
company is more profitable and the company has more profits to distribute to its
shareholders. Looking at the data we come to know that Colgate Palmolive has
positive and highest EPS compared to others. Hindustan Unilever has also a good
earning per share.
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Analysis:
A lower debt to equity ratio usually implies a more financially stable business.
Companies with a higher debt to equity ratio are considered more risky to
creditors and investors than companies with a lower ratio. Here by looking at the
data we come to know that all the companies have Debt to Equity Ratio as 0
which essentially proves that all the companies are Debt Free.
Recommendations
• For Colgate Palmolive, if an investor is currently holding this stock
he/she must hold and should keep this stock in their portfolio. Because,
the liquidity position of the company is good.
• Dabur India should work on the profits generated from each rupee
that is invested so as to increase the amount of investment thereby
increasing the return on Assets and Return on Capital Employed.
• An investor would prevent himself from investing in Godrej consumer
products inspite of the brand name because of the financials which
are not as good as the other companies. Hence an overall effort
should be made to cover up for the loss.
• Hindustan Unilever has already made up its position in the minds of
the investor with its efficient branding and advertising and it also
provides good returns to the investor. It should work on its return on
equity because inspite of being the highest the returns are
decreasing.
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REFERENCES/BIBLIOGRAPHY
• Moneycontrol
• BSE and NSE Sites
• Equitymaster
• Financial Management by I.M. Pandey
• Investopedia
• https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortselling.asp
• http://www.livefinancialacademy.com/courses/introduction-
financial-trading-online
• https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/022205.asp
• https://in.investing.com/indices/
• https://www.lifeinscouncil.org/election/ListOfCouncilMembers
• http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocksmarketsindia/
• https://lifeinsurance.adityabirlacapital.com/about-us/company-
profile.aspx
• https://lifeinsurance.adityabirlacapital.com/about-us.aspx
• http://www.moneycontrol.com/mutualfundindia/
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