Scenario Summary

Current Values: Most Likely Best Worst

Changing Cells: 0.5 0.25 0.25
SP 115 115 143 86
VC 0.55 0.55 0.41 0.68
Factory Cost 150 150 112 188
Disc Rate (k) 0.11 0.11 0.08 0.13
Pairs Sold 2.4 2.4 3 1.8
Result Cells:
NPV 13.36 13.36 223.44 -121.56
IRR 12.82% 12.82% 38.89% -2.94%
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.
Result Cells:
NPV 13.36 13.36 223.44 -121.56
expected mean STD dev COV mean base case
NPV 32.15 123.41 3.84 Variance per currency unit of N
Sale price 114.75 20.15 0.18 115
VC % on sales 0.5475 0.10 0.17 0.55
factory cost 150 26.87 0.18 150
discount rate 0.1075 0.02 0.17 0.11
pairs sold 20 2.40 0.42 0.18 2.4
an base case
ance per currency unit of NPV
life of project 6 key results
unit sale price 115 NPV 13.36
Variable cost 0.55 IRR 12.82%
factory cost 150 pairs sold
equipment cost including F&I 20 lost sales
terminal market value factory 102 WC Y1 to Y5
terminal market value equipment 3 INV
SG&A 7 AP
endorsement fees except 2016 2 AR
endorsement fees 2016 3 WC
inventory Y0 15 WC cash flows
AP Y0 5 total capex
AR y0 0 Dep rate
WC y0 10 Dep rate
INV % of VC 0.25 Depreciation
AP % of VC 0.2 Depreciation
AR % of revenues 0.08 Depreciation
Tax rate 0.4 Depreciation
discount rate (k) 0.11
sales in y2016 2.4

2013 beginning 2013 2014

0 1 2

Sales revenues 138 184

Revenues lost 35 15
net revenues 103 169
Variable cost 56.65 92.95
SG&A 7 7
Endorsement fees 2 2
A&P 25 15
Dep factory 3.9 7.5
equipment 4 6.4
EBIT 4.45 38.15
Taxes 1.78 15.26
NOPAT 2.67 22.89
Add: dep factory 3.9 7.5
equipment 4 6.4
OCF 10.57 36.79
CF due to NWC 10 1.0725 7.095
CF due to Capex 170
Net cash flows -180 9.4975 29.695
NPV 13.36
IRR 12.82%
 Deviation Sale price PU NPV IRR
13.36 12.82%
-25% 86.25 -35.50 5.99%
-15% 97.75 -15.96 8.78%
-5% 109.25 3.59 11.49%
0% 115 13.36 12.82%
5% 120.75 23.13 14.13%
15% 132.25 42.68 16.69%
25% 143.75 62.22 19.20%

EF all years NPV IRR

Deviation exept 2016
13.36 12.82%
-25% 1.5 14.43 12.96%
-15% 1.7 14.00 12.90%
-5% 1.9 13.57 12.85%
0% 2 13.36 12.82%
5% 2.1 13.15 12.79%
15% 2.3 12.72 12.73%
25% 2.5 12.29 12.67%

deviation sale price PU VC % on sales WC at t0 EF 2016

-25% -35.50 72.19 13.61 13.66
0% 13.36 13.36 13.36 13.36
25% 62.22 -45.47 13.11 13.06

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sale price PU VC % on sale

EF 2016 SG&A
EF all years except 2016 revenues 201

deviation NPV -25% -15%

13.36 86.25 97.75
-25% 0.4125 7.71 33.50
-15% 0.4675 -9.58 13.72
-5% 0.5225 -26.86 -6.07
VC % on sales (column input variable) 0% 0.55 -35.50 -15.96
5% 0.5775 -44.15 -25.85
15% 0.6325 -61.43 -45.63
25% 0.6875 -78.72 -65.42

lowest NPV
as at this
point VC is
max and SP
is min
2013 beginning 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1.2 1.6 1.4 2.4 1.8 0.9
35 15

14.1625 23.2375 22.1375 37.95 28.4625

11.33 18.59 17.71 30.36 22.77
8.24 13.52 12.88 22.08 16.56
10 11.0725 18.1675 17.3075 29.67 22.2525
10 1.0725 7.095 -0.86 12.3625 -7.4175 22.2525
170
factory 2.60% 5% 4.70% 4.50% 4.30% 4.00%
equipment 20% 32% 19% 12% 11% 6%
factory 3.9 7.5 7.05 6.75 6.45 6
factory cum. 3.9 11.4 18.45 25.2 31.65 37.65
equipment 4 6.4 3.8 2.4 2.2 1.2
equipment cum. 4 10.4 14.2 16.6 18.8 20

2015 2016 2017 2018

3 4 5 6

161 276 207 103.5

161 276 207 103.5

88.55 151.8 113.85 56.925
7 7 7 7
2 3 2 2
10 30 25 15
7.05 6.75 6.45 6
3.8 2.4 2.2 1.2
42.6 75.05 50.5 15.375
17.04 30.02 20.2 6.15
25.56 45.03 30.3 9.225
7.05 6.75 6.45 6
3.8 2.4 2.2 1.2
36.41 54.18 38.95 16.425
-0.86 12.3625 -7.4175 22.2525
107.94
37.27 41.8175 46.3675 146.6175
 VC% on sales NPV IRR WC at T=0 NPV IRR EF 2016
13.36 12.82% 13.36 12.82%
0.4125 72.19 20.63% 7.5 13.61 12.86% 2.25
0.4675 48.66 17.54% 8.5 13.51 12.84% 2.55
0.5225 25.13 14.40% 9.5 13.41 12.83% 2.85
0.55 13.36 12.82% 10 13.36 12.82% 3
0.5775 1.59 11.22% 10.5 13.31 12.81% 3.15
0.6325 -21.94 7.98% 11.5 13.21 12.79% 3.45
0.6875 -45.47 4.69% 12.5 13.11 12.78% 3.75

Revenues 2016 NPV IRR Discount Rate (k) NPV IRR

(pairs sold)
13.36 12.82% 13.36 12.82% IRR would remain same irresp
1.80 1.57 11.22% 0.0825 36.27 12.82%
2.04 6.29 11.87% 0.0935 26.68 12.82%
2.28 11.00 12.50% 0.1045 17.67 12.82%
2.4 13.36 12.82% 0.11 13.36 12.82%
2.52 15.72 13.13% 0.1155 9.18 12.82%
2.90 23.14 14.10% 0.1265 1.18 12.82%
3.62 37.38 15.89% 0.1375 -6.37 12.82%

EF all years
SG&A factory cost except 2016 revenues 2016 discount rate (k)
17.80 42.23 14.43 1.57 36.27
13.36 13.36 13.36 13.36 13.36
8.92 -15.51 12.29 25.15 -6.37

Chart Title
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U VC % on sales WC at t0
SG&A factory cost
except 2016 revenues 2016 discount rate (k)

-5% 0% 5% 15% 25%

109.25 115 120.75 132.25 143.75
59.29 72.19 85.08 110.87 136.67 highest NPV as at this point VC is m
37.01 48.66 60.30 83.60 106.89 highest SP, lowest VC
14.73 25.13 35.52 56.32 77.11
3.59 13.36 23.13 42.68 62.22
-7.55 1.59 10.74 29.04 47.34
-29.84 -21.94 -14.04 1.76 17.56
-52.12 -45.47 -38.82 -25.52 -12.22
SV in terminal year factory equipment
MV of factory 102 3
BV of factory 112.35 0
Loss/gain on sale -10.35 3
tax benefit/paid 4.14 -1.2
CF from SV 106.14 1.8
 NPV IRR SG&A NPV IRR Factory Cost NPV IRR
13.36 12.82% 13.36 12.82% 13.36 12.82%
13.66 12.86% 4.239375 20.37 13.77% 112.5 42.23 17.88%
13.54 12.84% 5.6525 16.78 13.28% 127.5 30.68 15.63%
13.42 12.83% 6.65 14.25 12.94% 142.5 19.13 13.69%
13.36 12.82% 7 13.36 12.82% 150 13.36 12.82%
13.30 12.81% 7.35 12.47 12.70% 157.5 7.59 12.00%
13.18 12.79% 8.05 10.69 12.46% 172.5 -3.96 10.51%
13.06 12.78% 8.75 8.92 12.21% 187.5 -15.51 9.18%

IRR would remain same irrespective of change in rate

hest NPV as at this point VC is min and SP is max
highest SP, lowest VC