Investment Office ANRS

Project Profile on the Establishment of Door

Locks Making Plant

Development Studies Associates

(DSA)

October 2008
Addis Ababa
 Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary............................................................................................1
2. Product Description and Application..............................................................1
3. Market Study, Plant Capacity and Production Program..............................2
3.1 Market Study...................................................................................................................2
3.1.1 Present Demand and Supply....................................................................................2
3.1.2 Projected Demand....................................................................................................3
3.1.3 Pricing and Distribution...........................................................................................3
3.2 Plant Capacity..................................................................................................................4
3.3 Production Program.........................................................................................................4
4. Raw Materials and Utilities..............................................................................4
4.1 Availability and Source of Raw Materials.......................................................................4
4.2 Annual Requirement and Cost of Raw Materials and Utilities.......................................4
5. Location and Site...............................................................................................5
6. Technology and Engineering............................................................................5
6.1 Production Process...........................................................................................................5
6.2 Machinery and Equipment...............................................................................................7
6.3 Civil Engineering Cost....................................................................................................7
7. Human Resource and Training Requirement................................................8
7.1 Human Resource..............................................................................................................8
7.2 Training Requirement......................................................................................................8
8. Financial Analysis.............................................................................................8
8.1 Underlying Assumption...................................................................................................8
8.2 Investment......................................................................................................................10
8.3 Production Costs............................................................................................................10
8.4 Financial Evaluation......................................................................................................11
9. Economic and Social Benefit and Justification.............................................12
ANNEXES..............................................................................................................14
 1. Executive Summary
This project envisages production of 1000 tons or 1 million pieces of Door Locks and Keys
having standard size per annum. The total investment requirement of the project including the
working capital is estimated at about Birr 16.5 million; of which Birr 7.6 million is for
machinery and equipments and around Birr 7.9 million is the cost of the working capital. Based
on the cash flow statement, the calculated internal rate of return (IRR) and simple rate of returns
(SRR) of the project are 36.8 % and 23.8 %, respectively. The net present value (NPV) at 18 %
discounting rate is about Birr 9,009 thousand. The plant is expected to create employment
opportunities for about 109 persons.

2. Product Description and Application

Door locks are used to lock up doors. This profile deals with locks and keys which are fitted to
internal and external doors. Common door locks are called mortice locks. This door lock is
operated by a key and latch. Door locks can be vertical, rebated or dead type. Vertical locks are
used in flush doors. The locks normally have two levers.
The envisaged plant will fabricate most of the components of the mortice locks and assemble
them. Very few components and some services are expected to be bought from outside. The
plant will also manufacture door handles that will needed to complete the mortice lock. The
envisaged mortice locks will largely have two levers. The lever is the mechanism which is
released by the key, allowing the bolt to short. The more levers there are, the more secure the
lock will be. Security locks have five or more levers. The plant under consideration will produce
8 cm and 6.5 cm mortice locks with tumbler bits for the key and 8 cm and 6.5 cm. mortice lock
in which the cylinder latch of pin tumbler mechanism fits.

1
 3. Market Study, Plant Capacity and Production Program

3.1 Market Study

3.1.1 Present Demand and Supply

Door locks are among the most essential household products. Millions and millions of rooms in
houses, offices, shops, schools, hospitals, factories and etc need door locks for safe keeping of
properties and the safety of people. So far, there are no local plants in the country engaged in the
manufacture of door locks and key. All the door locks that the whole country needs every year
are imported. Demand is thus met through import, mainly form Europe and China. Making of
door locks mainly requires fabrication of different metals and assembling them; and this can be
done in our country. So far no attempt has been made to produce door locks in any part of the
country. In this regard, ANRS should take the initiative to manufacture the first modern door
locks in the country.
The present and future demand for door locks and keys is determined by analyzing the past
import data and the future growth in the building and construction sector. Although the import
data shows some fluctuations in the past ten years, it registered an average growth rate of 5 %
per annum.

TABLE 3.1
IMPORT OF MORTICE LOCKS AND KEYS
Year E.C IMPRTS( IN TONS)
1990 609
1991 672
1992 640
1993 705
1994 777
1995 765
1996 800
1997 750
1998 900
1999 945
2000* 1000
Source: Compiled from CSA’s Import Statistics for different Year
* Estimation

2
 3.1.2 Projected Demand

The demand for door locks and keys is highly dependent on building and housing constructions
being undertaken. In the past five years, this sector has been growing more than 10 % per annum
on average. The future growth of building and construction is expected to be higher. In this
study, however, for the purpose of future demand projection, it is conservatively assumed that
the construction sector will keep growing following the past five years trend. Table 3.2 gives the
next ten years projection of the demand for locks and keys.
TABLE 3.2
PROJECTED DEMAND FOR LOCKS
Year E.C Quantity In tons
2000 1000
2001 1100
2002 1210
2003 1331
2004 1464
2005 1611
2006 1772
2007 1949
2008 2144
2009 2358
2010 2594

As it is seen in the above projection, the demand for door locks and keys is projected to reach at
1611 tons in 2005 E.C. and 2594 tons in 2010 E.C.

3.1.3 Pricing and Distribution

The price of mortice locks and keys vary widely with quality and source. According to the
information from MEWIT (merchandise whole sale and import trade) and visit to retail shops,
the estimated landed cost of the product from Italian sources are:-

Mortice Door Locks with Cylinder Latch ---------------------------Birr 90

Mortice Door Locks with Keys---------------------------------------Birr 60

3
Such items from other sources, particularly from China, are cheaper up to 50 % than the above
items. The envisaged project should sell its products (Mortice Door Locks with Keys) at Birr 30
factory price in order to be competitive. The product can be distributed through wholesale
channel to networks of retailers.

3.2 Plant Capacity

According to the market demand projection, the market demand for 2000 E.C is estimated to be
about 1000 tons and it is expected to grow up to 1,611 tons and 2,591 tons by year 2005 E.C and
2010 E.C, respectively. Hence, it is reasonable to select a plant capacity of 1000 tons per year for
the new plant. The plant is assumed to operate in two shifts basis for 275 working days in a year;
and this is set by deducting 52 Sundays, 13 public holidays, 15 days for annual maintenance and
10 days for unexpected work interruptions.

3.3 Production Program

The door locks and keys making plant is anticipated to run at 75 % and 85% of its installed
capacity in the first and the second years of operation, respectively. Full capacity will be
attainable on the third year. The gradual capacity build-up is suggested considering the time
required for development of skill by operators, and other technical and technological factors.

4. Raw Materials and Utilities

4.1 Availability and Source of Raw Materials

Almost all the raw materials are imported from other countries. It is not the availability of the
raw materials that motivates the establishment of this plant; rather it is the high value adding
nature of the factory.

4.2 Annual Requirement and Cost of Raw Materials and Utilities

Door locks are made from different metals, and like any other metallic product produced in the
country, metal inputs for the production of door locks will be imported. Table 4.1 shows the
annual full capacity materials requirement and costs of a Mortice Door Lock Plant with a
capacity of making 1000 tons (1 million pieces) of locks and keys per annum.

4
 TABLE 4.1
ANNUAL MTERIAL AND INPUT REQUIREMENT
No. Item Qty. F.C L.C Total
Description In Tons In In In “000”
“000” “000”
1. Cold roll steel sheet 480 2,283 3,055 5,338
2. Aluminum bars 120 4,300 3,700 8,000
3. Steel Wire 24 340 290 630
4. Aluminum ingot for handles 240 2,230 2,000 4,230
5. Screws, springs etc. lamp sums 500 440 940
6. Electro-plating services ditto 1,000 - 1,000
7. Packing material and other ditto - 1,000 1,000
consumable
8. Total 10,653 10,485 21,138

The total annual expenditure towards procurement of these items is estimated to be about Birr
21,138,000. The unit will require 190 MWH of electric energy annually. The annual water
requirement is estimated o be 1,700 m3. Total cost of these utilities is estimated at Birr 109,000.

5. Location and Site

For its convenience to procure raw materials and to distribute its product to different parts of the
country Debre-Birhan is an appropriate choice for the establishment of door locks and keys
making plant in the Amhara region.

6. Technology and Engineering

6.1 Production Process

A mortice lock of two levers may have 14 to 15 components. A list of these components is show
in Table 5.1

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 TABLE 5.1
MORTICE LOCK COMPONENT
Item Description
No.
1. Fore end front plate (plated)
2. Case back
3. Case front
4. Runner prate
5. Bolt lathe
6. 2 levers
7. Follower (in-mg Die cost)
8. Striker plate for door frame
9. Bolt
10. Dead Bolt
11. Rivets
12. 2 coil springs
13. 5 screws
14. 2 keys and rings

This study recommends a simple line, having three or four presses and with manual machine and
handling. The manufacturing sequence of lever mortice lock is as follows:-
- Stamp case front and back
- Press case shape
- Perforated holes
- Rivets spring foot, stamp etc. on the case
- Paint case
- Drill and top the case screw thread
- Stamp and punch for end and striker plate
- Rivet for end to case
- Machine bolt and dead bolt
- Rivet level to bolt lathe
- Fold runner plates
- Assemble lock
- Stamp key ends and cut shank
- Weld key
- Electro plate key
The technology, machinery and equipment required for manufacture of locks and keys is
available from China and India.

6
 6.2 Machinery and Equipment

The major machinery and equipment required are listed in Table 5.2. The total cost of machinery
and equipment is estimated at Birr 7.6 million out of which Birr 5.9 million will be in foreign
currency.
TABLE 5.2
MAJOR MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT LIST AND COST

Item Item Cost ‘000 Birr

No. Description F.C L.C Total
1. Press (Multi-Purpose) 635 179.46 814.6
2. Small press for perforating 308.3 87.4 395.7
3. 5 machine for bolt 4321.5 124.3 556.8
4. Key blanking and welding 262.3 73.6 336.9
5. 5 Machine for riveting 240.5 96.6 437.1
6. Painting, packing, ranking 450.9 124.3 575.2
7. Tools 1,085.9 303.7 1,389.6
8. Spares 138 41.4 179.4
9. Door handles making equipment 2,263.9 639.6 2,903.5
Total 5,917.3 1,670.36 7,587.66

Machinery Suppliers Address:

Hyloc Hydrotechnic Private Limited
88, Machhe Industrial Estate,
Machhe, Belgaum, Karnataka – 590014,
India

6.3 Civil Engineering Cost

The total land area of the plant, including the open space is1000 m 2 . Required covered area
(including storage, production and facilities) is 600 m 2 of which 300 m2 is assumed to be
galvanized corrugated iron sheet walled and the rest is just a simple shed. The construction cost
of the covered area is estimated to be Birr 500 thousand. And, the land lease cost equals Birr
54,500.The cost of the land lease is as per ANRS land lease rate for Debre-Birhan which is equal
to Birr 54.50 per sq m for industrial purpose. Of the total cost of the lease 5 % is paid in the
beginning while the rest will be paid in 40years.

7
 7. Human Resource and Training Requirement

7.1 Human Resource

The plant is to be operated on a three shift basis with 109 employees. Table 6.1 shows the details
of the human resource requirement. The annual cost of wages and salary will be Birr 1,104,480.

TABLE 6.1
MANPOWER REQUIREMENT AND COST

Number Month Annual Salary

Category
Salary In Birr
Manager 1 3,500 42,000
Supervisor 4 1500 72,000
Skilled Workers 30 1000 360,000
(Operators & Technicians)
Semi-skilled Worker 50 600 360,000
(Asst. Operators & Technicians)
Unskilled Worker (Laborers) 20 300 72,000
Security 4 300 14,400
Sub-Total 920,400
Employees Benefits (20%) 184,080
Total 109 1,104,480

7.2 Training Requirement

Lock and key making requires special skills. Thus, training would be given by two or more
expatriate experts from the technology supplier.

8. Financial Analysis
8.1 Underlying Assumption

The financial analysis of Door Locks and Keys Making plant is based on the data provided in
the preceding chapters and the following assumptions.

8
 A. Construction and Finance

Construction period 2 years

Source of finance 40% equity and 60% loan
Tax holidays 2 years
Bank interest rate 12%
Discount for cash flow 18%
Value of land Based on lease rate of ANRS
Spare Parts, Repair & Maintenance 3% of fixed investment

B. Depreciation

Building 5%
Machinery and equipment 10%
Office furniture 10%
Vehicles 20%
Pre-production (amortization) 20%

C. Working Capital (Minimum Days of Coverage)

Raw Material-Local 30 days

Raw Material-Foreign 120 days
Factory Supplies in Stock 30 days
Spare Parts in Stock and Maintenance 30 days
Work in Progress 10 days
Finished Products 15 days
Accounts Receivable 30 days
Cash in Hand 30 days
Accounts Payable 30 days

9
 8.2 Investment
The total investment cost of the project including working capital is estimated at Birr 16.5
million as shown in Table 8.1 below. The owner shall contribute 40 % of the finance in the form
of equity while the remaining 60 % is to be financed by bank loan.
TABLE 8.1
TOTAL INITIAL INVESTMENT

Items L.C F.C Total

Land
2,725   2,725
Building and Civil Works
500,000   500,000
Office Equipment
100,000   100,000
Vehicles
0   0
Plant Machinery & Equipment
1,670,360 5,917,300 7,587,660
Total Fixed Investment Cost
2,273,085 5,917,300 8,190,385
Pre-production Capital
Expenditure* 113,654   409,519
Total Initial Investment
2,386,739 5,917,300 8,599,904
Working Capital at Full Capacity
3,249,116 4,648,582 7,897,698
Total 5,635,856 10,565,882 16,497,602
*Pre-production capital expenditure includes - all expenses for pre-investment studies, consultancy fee during
construction and expenses for company‘s establishment, project administration expenses, commission expenses,
preproduction marketing and interest expenses during construction.

The foreign component of the project accounts for 64 % of the total investment.

8.3 Production Costs

The total production cost at full capacity operation is estimated at Birr 24.5 (See Table 8.2). Raw
materials and utilities account for 86.9 %.

10
 TABLE 8.2
PRODUCTION COST AT FULL CAPACITY

Raw Material Requirement Cost

1. Local Raw Materials 10,485,000
2. Foreign Raw Materials 10,653,000

Total Production Cost at full Capacity

Items Cost
1.      Raw materials 21,138,000
2.      Utilities 109,000
3.      Wages and Salaries 1,104,480
4.      Spares and Maintenance 245,712
Factory Costs 22,597,192
5.      Depreciation 875,670
6.      Financial Costs
989,856
  Total Production Cost 24,462,718

8.4 Financial Evaluation

I. Profitability
According to the projected income statement (See Annex 4) the project will generate profit
beginning from the first year of operation and increases on wards. The income statement and
other profitability indicators also show that the project is viable.
II. Breakeven Analysis
The breakeven point of the projects is given by the formula:

BEP = Fixed Cost

Sale –Variable Cost at full capacity.

The project will break even at 17.8 % of capacity utilization

III. Payback Period

11
Investment cost and income statement projection are used in estimating the project payback
period. The project will payback fully the initial investment less working capital in two years.

IV. Simple Rate of Return

The project’s simple rate of return is given by the formula:

SRR= (Net Profit + Interest)/ (Total Investment Outlay) at full capacity utilization.

The SRR would be 28.5 % at full capacity utilization.

V. Internal Rate of Return and Net Present Value

Based on cash flow statement (See Annex 2) the calculated internal rate of return (IRR) of the
project is 36.8 % and the net present value (NPV) at 18 % discount is Birr 9,009 thousands.

VI. Sensitivity Analysis

The sensitivity test result which undertaken by increasing the cost of production by 10 % still
indicates that the project would be viable.

9. Economic and Social Benefit and Justification

Based on the foregoing presentation and analysis, we can learn that the proposed project
possesses wide range of benefits that complement the financial feasibility obtained earlier. In
general the envisaged project promotes the socio-economic goals and objectives stated in the
strategic plan of the Amhara National Regional State. These benefits are listed as follows

A. Profit Generation
The project is found to be financially viable and earns on average a profit of Birr 4.1 million per
year and birr 40.6 million within the project life. Such result induces the project promoters to
reinvest the profit which, therefore, increases the investment magnitude in the region.

B. Tax Revenue

12
In the project life under consideration, the region will collect about Birr 14.7 million from
corporate tax payment alone (i.e. excluding income tax, sales tax and VAT). Such result create
additional fund for the regional government that will be used in expanding social and other basic
services in the region

C. Import Substitution and Foreign Exchange Saving

As there is no local manufacturing of door locks and keys in the country, the commencement of
this project relieves a portion of the import burden. That is, based on the projected figure we
learn that in the project life an estimated amount of US Dollar 28.8 million will be saved as a
result of the proposed project. This will create room for the saved hard currency to be allocated
on other vital and strategic sectors

D. Employment and Income Generation

The proposed project is expected to create employment opportunity to several citizens of the
country. That is, it will provide permanent employment to109 professionals as well as support
stuffs. Consequently the project creates income of birr 1.1 million per year. This would be one of
the commendable accomplishments of the project.

E. Pro Environment Project

The proposed production process is environment friendly.

13
ANNEXES

14
 Annex 1: Total Net Working Capital Requirements (in Birr)
CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION
  Year 1 Year 2 1 2 3 4

Capacity Utilization (%) 0 0 75% 85% 100% 100%

1. Total Inventory 0.00 0.00 10168288.87 11524060.72 13557718.50 13557718.50

Raw Materials in Stock- Total 0.00 0.00 4344300.00 4923540.00 5792400.00 5792400.00

Raw Material-Local 0.00 0.00 857863.64 972245.45 1143818.18 1143818.18

Raw Material-Foreign 0.00 0.00 3486436.36 3951294.55 4648581.82 4648581.82

Factory Supplies in Stock 0.00 0.00 19205.07 21765.74 25606.76 25606.76

Spare Parts in Stock and Maintenance 0.00 0.00 20103.67 22784.16 26804.90 26804.90

Work in Progress 0.00 0.00 480126.71 544143.61 640168.95 640168.95

Finished Products 0.00 0.00 960253.42 1088287.21 1280337.89 1280337.89

2. Accounts Receivable 0.00 0.00 2454545.45 2781818.18 3272727.27 3272727.27

3. Cash in Hand 0.00 0.00 99284.73 112522.69 132379.64 132379.64

CURRENT ASSETS 0.00 0.00 8377819.05 9494861.59 11170425.41 11170425.41

4. Current Liabilities 0.00 0.00 2454545.45 2781818.18 3272727.27 3272727.27

Accounts Payable 0.00 0.00 2454545.45 2781818.18 3272727.27 3272727.27

TOTAL NET WORKING CAPITAL REQUIRMENTS 0.00 0.00 5923273.60 6713043.41 7897698.13 7897698.13

INCREASE IN NET WORKING CAPITAL 0.00 0.00 5923273.60 789769.81 1184654.72 0.00

1
 Annex 1: Total Net Working Capital Requirements (in Birr) (continued)
PRODUCTION
  5 6 7 8 9 10

Capacity Utilization (%) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

1. Total Inventory 13557718.50 13557718.50 13557718.50 13557718.50 13557718.50 13557718.50

Raw Materials in Stock-Total 5792400.00 5792400.00 5792400.00 5792400.00 5792400.00 5792400.00

Raw Material-Local 1143818.18 1143818.18 1143818.18 1143818.18 1143818.18 1143818.18

Raw Material-Foreign 4648581.82 4648581.82 4648581.82 4648581.82 4648581.82 4648581.82

Factory Supplies in Stock 25606.76 25606.76 25606.76 25606.76 25606.76 25606.76

Spare Parts in Stock and Maintenance 26804.90 26804.90 26804.90 26804.90 26804.90 26804.90

Work in Progress 640168.95 640168.95 640168.95 640168.95 640168.95 640168.95

Finished Products 1280337.89 1280337.89 1280337.89 1280337.89 1280337.89 1280337.89

2. Accounts Receivable 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27

3. Cash in Hand 132379.64 132379.64 132379.64 132379.64 132379.64 132379.64

CURRENT ASSETS 11170425.41 11170425.41 11170425.41 11170425.41 11170425.41 11170425.41

4. Current Liabilities 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27

Accounts Payable 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27

TOTAL NET WORKING CAPITAL REQUIRMENTS 7897698.13 7897698.13 7897698.13 7897698.13 7897698.13 7897698.13

INCREASE IN NET WORKING CAPITAL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2
 Annex 2: Cash Flow Statement (in Birr)
CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION
  Year 1 Year 2 1 2 3 4
TOTAL CASH INFLOW 4299952.13 12197650.26 24954545.45 25827272.73 30490909.09 30000000.00
1. Inflow Funds 4299952.13 12197650.26 2454545.45 327272.73 490909.09 0.00
Total Equity 1719980.85 4879060.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Long Term Loan 2579971.28 7318590.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Short Term Finances 0.00 0.00 2454545.45 327272.73 490909.09 0.00
2. Inflow Operation 0.00 0.00 22500000.00 25500000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00
Sales Revenue 0.00 0.00 22500000.00 25500000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00
Interest on Securities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
3. Other Income 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW 4299952.13 4299952.13 27873540.77 23236105.70 28624107.18 26809963.51
4. Increase In Fixed Assets 4299952.13 4299952.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fixed Investments 4095192.50 4095192.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pre-production Expenditures 204759.63 204759.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
5. Increase in Current Assets 0.00 0.00 8377819.05 1117042.54 1675563.81 0.00
6. Operating Costs 0.00 0.00 17022854.69 19281475.55 22669406.84 22669406.84
7. Corporate Tax Paid 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1639520.15 1698911.52
8. Interest Paid 0.00 0.00 2472867.03 1187827.37 989856.14 791884.91
9.Loan Repayments 0.00 0.00 0.00 1649760.24 1649760.24 1649760.24
10.Dividends Paid 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Surplus(Deficit) 0.00 7897698.13 -2918995.31 2591167.03 1866801.91 3190036.49
Cumulative Cash Balance 0.00 7897698.13 4978702.82 7569869.85 9436671.76 12626708.25

3
 Annex 2: Cash Flow Statement (in Birr): Continued
PRODUCTION
  5 6 7 8 9 10
TOTAL CASH INFLOW 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00
1. Inflow Funds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Equity 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Long Term Loan 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Short Term Finances 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2. Inflow Operation 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00
Sales Revenue 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00
Interest on Securities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
3. Other Income 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW 26671383.65 26557374.95 26418795.09 24630454.99 24630454.99 24630454.99
4. Increase In Fixed Assets 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fixed Investments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pre-production Expenditures 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
5. Increase in Current Assets 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
6. Operating Costs 22669406.84 22669406.84 22669406.84 22669406.84 22669406.84 22669406.84
7. Corporate Tax Paid 1758302.89 1842265.41 1901656.78 1961048.15 1961048.15 1961048.15
8. Interest Paid 593913.69 395942.46 197971.23 0.00 0.00 0.00
9. Loan Repayments 1649760.24 1649760.24 1649760.24 0.00 0.00 0.00
10.Dividends Paid 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Surplus(Deficit) 3328616.35 3442625.05 3581204.91 5369545.01 5369545.01 5369545.01
Cumulative Cash Balance 15955324.60 19397949.65 22979154.57 28348699.58 33718244.59 39087789.60

4
 Annex 3: DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW-TOTAL CAPITAL INVESTED
CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION
  Year 1 Year 2 1 2 3 4
TOTAL CASH INFLOW 0.00 0.00 22500000.00 25500000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00

1. Inflow Operation 0.00 0.00 22500000.00 25500000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00

Sales Revenue 0.00 0.00 22500000.00 25500000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00

Interest on Securities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2. Other Income 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW 4299952.13 4299952.13 22946128.28 20071245.36 23854061.56 24368318.36

3. Increase in Fixed Assets 4299952.13 4299952.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Fixed Investments 4095192.50 4095192.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Pre-production Expenditures 204759.63 204759.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

4. Increase in Net Working Capital 0.00 0.00 5923273.60 789769.81 1184654.72 0.00

5. Operating Costs 0.00 0.00 17022854.69 19281475.55 22669406.84 22669406.84

6. Corporate Tax Paid 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1698911.52

NET CASH FLOW -4299952.13 -4299952.13 -446128.28 5428754.64 6145938.44 5631681.64

CUMMULATIVE NET CASH FLOW -4299952.13 -8599904.25 -9046032.53 -3617277.89 2528660.55 8160342.19

Net Present Value (at 18%) -4299952.13 -3644027.22 -320402.39 3304107.67 3170006.68 2461659.95

Cumulative Net present Value -4299952.13 -7943979.35 -8264381.74 -4960274.06 -1790267.39 671392.56

5
 Annex 3: DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW-TOTAL CAPITAL INVESTED (Continued)
PRODUCTION
  5 6 7 8 9 10
TOTAL CASH INFLOW 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00

1. Inflow Operation 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00

Sales Revenue 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00

Interest on Securities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2. Other Income 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW 24427709.73 24511672.25 24571063.62 24630454.99 24630454.99 24630454.99

3. Increase in Fixed Assets 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Fixed Investments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Pre-production Expenditures 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

4. Increase in Net Working Capital 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

5. Operating Costs 22669406.84 22669406.84 22669406.84 22669406.84 22669406.84 22669406.84

6. Corporate Tax Paid 1758302.89 1842265.41 1901656.78 1961048.15 1961048.15 1961048.15

NET CASH FLOW 5572290.27 5488327.75 5428936.38 5369545.01 5369545.01 5369545.01

CUMMULATIVE NET CASH FLOW 13732632.46 19220960.21 24649896.59 30019441.61 35388986.62 40758531.63

Net Present Value (at 18%) 2064152.06 1722923.47 1444304.27 1210596.52 1025929.26 869431.57

Cumulative Net present Value 2735544.62 4458468.09 5902772.36 7113368.88 8139298.14 9008729.71

Net Present Value (at 18%) 9,008,729.71

Internal Rate of Return 36.8%

6
 Annex 4: NET INCOME STATEMENT ( in Birr)
PRODUCTION
  1 2 3 4 5
Capacity Utilization (%) 75% 85% 100% 100% 100%

1. Total Income 22500000.00 25500000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00

Sales Revenue 22500000.00 25500000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00
Other Income 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2. Less Variable Cost 16608312.46 18822754.12 22144416.61 22144416.61 22144416.61
VARIABLE MARGIN 5891687.54 6677245.88 7855583.39 7855583.39 7855583.39
(In % of Total Income) 26.19 26.19 26.19 26.19 26.19
3. Less Fixed Costs 1290212.08 1334391.28 1400660.08 1400660.08 1400660.08
OPERATIONAL MARGIN 4601475.46 5342854.60 6454923.31 6454923.31 6454923.31
(In % of Total Income) 20.45 20.95 21.52 21.52 21.52
4. Less Cost of Finance 2472867.03 1187827.37 989856.14 791884.91 593913.69
5. GROSS PROFIT 2128608.44 4155027.23 5465067.17 5663038.40 5861009.63
6. Income (Corporate) Tax 0.00 0.00 1639520.15 1698911.52 1758302.89
7. NET PROFIT 2128608.44 4155027.23 3825547.02 3964126.88 4102706.74
RATIOS (%)  
Gross Profit/Sales 9.46% 16.29% 18.22% 18.88% 19.54%
Net Profit After Tax/Sales 9.46% 16.29% 12.75% 13.21% 13.68%
Return on Investment 31.68% 34.89% 29.19% 28.83% 28.47%
Return on Equity 32.26% 62.96% 57.97% 60.07% 62.17%

7
 Annex 4: NET INCOME STATEMENT (in Birr):Continued
PRODUCTION
  6 7 8 9 10
Capacity Utilization (%) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

1. Total Income 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00

Sales Revenue 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00 30000000.00
Other Income 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2. Less Variable Cost 22144416.61 22144416.61 22144416.61 22144416.61 22144416.61
VARIABLE MARGIN 7855583.39 7855583.39 7855583.39 7855583.39 7855583.39
(In % of Total Income) 26.19 26.19 26.19 26.19 26.19
3. Less Fixed Costs 1318756.23 1318756.23 1318756.23 1318756.23 1318756.23
OPERATIONAL MARGIN 6536827.16 6536827.16 6536827.16 6536827.16 6536827.16
(In % of Total Income) 21.79 21.79 21.79 21.79 21.79
4. Less Cost of Finance 395942.46 197971.23 0.00 0.00 0.00
5. GROSS PROFIT 6140884.70 6338855.93 6536827.16 6536827.16 6536827.16
6. Income (Corporate) Tax 1842265.41 1901656.78 1961048.15 1961048.15 1961048.15
7. NET PROFIT 4298619.29 4437199.15 4575779.01 4575779.01 4575779.01
RATIOS (%)  
Gross Profit/Sales 20.47% 21.13% 21.79% 21.79% 21.79%
Net Profit After Tax/Sales 14.33% 14.79% 15.25% 15.25% 15.25%
Return on Investment 28.46% 28.10% 27.74% 27.74% 27.74%
Return on Equity 65.14% 67.24% 69.34% 69.34% 69.34%

8
 Annex 5: Projected Balance Sheet (in Birr)
CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION
  Year 1 Year 2 1 2 3 4
TOTAL ASSETS 4299952.13 16497602.38 21080756.27 23913295.99 26579991.86 28894358.50
1. Total Current Assets 0.00 7897698.13 13356521.87 17064731.44 20607097.16 23797133.65
Inventory on Materials and Supplies 0.00 0.00 4383608.74 4968089.91 5844811.65 5844811.65
Work in Progress 0.00 0.00 480126.71 544143.61 640168.95 640168.95
Finished Products in Stock 0.00 0.00 960253.42 1088287.21 1280337.89 1280337.89
Accounts Receivable 0.00 0.00 2454545.45 2781818.18 3272727.27 3272727.27
Cash in Hand 0.00 0.00 99284.73 112522.69 132379.64 132379.64
Cash Surplus, Finance Available 0.00 7897698.13 4978702.82 7569869.85 9436671.76 12626708.25
Securities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2. Total Fixed Assets, Net of Depreciation 4299952.13 8599904.25 7724234.40 6848564.55 5972894.70 5097224.85
Fixed Investment 0.00 4095192.50 8190385.00 8190385.00 8190385.00 8190385.00
Construction in Progress 4095192.50 4095192.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pre-Production Expenditure 204759.63 409519.25 409519.25 409519.25 409519.25 409519.25
Less Accumulated Depreciation 0.00 0.00 875669.85 1751339.70 2627009.55 3502679.40
3. Accumulated Losses Brought Forward 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
4. Loss in Current Year 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
TOTAL LIABILITIES 4299952.13 16497602.38 21080756.27 23913295.99 26579991.86 28894358.50
5. Total Current Liabilities 0.00 0.00 2454545.45 2781818.18 3272727.27 3272727.27
Accounts Payable 0.00 0.00 2454545.45 2781818.18 3272727.27 3272727.27
Bank Overdraft 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
6. Total Long-term Debt 2579971.28 9898561.43 9898561.43 8248801.19 6599040.95 4949280.71
Loan A 2579971.28 9898561.43 9898561.43 8248801.19 6599040.95 4949280.71
Loan B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
7. Total Equity Capital 1719980.85 6599040.95 6599040.95 6599040.95 6599040.95 6599040.95
Ordinary Capital 1719980.85 6599040.95 6599040.95 6599040.95 6599040.95 6599040.95
Preference Capital 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Subsidies 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
8. Reserves, Retained Profits Brought Forward 0.00 0.00 0.00 2128608.44 6283635.67 10109182.68
9.Net Profit After Tax 0.00 0.00 2128608.44 4155027.23 3825547.02 3964126.88
Dividends Payable 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Retained Profits 0.00 0.00 2128608.44 4155027.23 3825547.02 3964126.88

9
 Annex 5: Projected Balance Sheet (in Birr): Continued
PRODUCTION
  5 6 7 8 9 10
TOTAL ASSETS 31347305.00 33996164.06 36783602.97 41359381.98 45935161.00 50510940.01
1. Total Current Assets 27125750.00 30568375.06 34149579.97 39519124.98 44888670.00 50258215.01
Inventory on Materials and Supplies 5844811.65 5844811.65 5844811.65 5844811.65 5844811.65 5844811.65
Work in Progress 640168.95 640168.95 640168.95 640168.95 640168.95 640168.95
Finished Products in Stock 1280337.89 1280337.89 1280337.89 1280337.89 1280337.89 1280337.89
Accounts Receivable 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27
Cash in Hand 132379.64 132379.64 132379.64 132379.64 132379.64 132379.64
Cash Surplus, Finance Available 15955324.60 19397949.65 22979154.57 28348699.58 33718244.59 39087789.60
Securities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2. Total Fixed Assets, Net of Depreciation 4221555.00 3427789.00 2634023.00 1840257.00 1046491.00 252725.00
Fixed Investment 8190385.00 8190385.00 8190385.00 8190385.00 8190385.00 8190385.00
Construction in Progress 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pre-Production Expenditure 409519.25 409519.25 409519.25 409519.25 409519.25 409519.25
Less Accumulated Depreciation 4378349.25 5172115.25 5965881.25 6759647.25 7553413.25 8347179.25
3. Accumulated Losses Brought Forward 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
4. Loss in Current Year 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
TOTAL LIABILITIES 31347305.00 33996164.06 36783602.97 41359381.98 45935161.00 50510940.01
5. Total Current Liabilities 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27
Accounts Payable 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27 3272727.27
Bank Overdraft 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
6. Total Long-term Debt 3299520.48 1649760.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Loan A 3299520.48 1649760.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Loan B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
7. Total Equity Capital 6599040.95 6599040.95 6599040.95 6599040.95 6599040.95 6599040.95
Ordinary Capital 6599040.95 6599040.95 6599040.95 6599040.95 6599040.95 6599040.95
Preference Capital 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Subsidies 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
8. Reserves, Retained Profits Brought
Forward 14073309.56 18176016.30 22474635.59 26911834.75 31487613.76 36063392.77
9. Net Profit After Tax 4102706.74 4298619.29 4437199.15 4575779.01 4575779.01 4575779.01
Dividends Payable 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Retained Profits 4102706.74 4298619.29 4437199.15 4575779.01 4575779.01 4575779.01

10