Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 20

May 2010

Asset Management

Ambit Good & Clean Midcap Portfolio


September 2020

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 1


Ambit Asset Management
What drives success for corporate India?

Our research over the past few years shows that over and above firm-specific competitive
advantages, three factors are essential for a company to consistently outperform

CLEAN CONSERVATIVE GOOD GOVERNANCE


ACCOUNTING CAPITAL ALLOCATION & LACK OF POLITICAL
CONNECTIVITY
The bottom 40% of the BSE500 Indian companies are
stocks on accounting quality amongst the most aggressive Firms whose central
have underperformed the top capital allocators in the world competitive advantage is
60% by a whopping 12% per and that aggression costs political connectivity seldom
annum since Nov 2010 their shareholders dear. outperform in India.

Ambit Good & Clean Midcap Portfolio is your solution to identify these
traits for sustainable wealth creation through Indian equities

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 2


Ambit Asset Management
Ambit Good & Clean Midcap Portfolio – Performance Track Record

47.3% Ambit Good & Clean Midcap Portfolio Nifty Midcap 100 MF Peer Avg
50%
CALENDAR YEAR RETURNS 41.2%
40%
29.0%
30%

20% 15.4% 14.5%


9.6% 5.9%
10% 7.1%
6.4% 3.2% 4.2%
2.7%
0.5% 1.3%
0%
-1.7%
-1.2%
-10% -4.3% -4.6% -2.5%
-10.9%
-20% -15.4%
CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20TD Since Inception
(CAGR)

3 CAGR MONTHLY ROLLING RETURNS Ambit Good & Clean Midcap Portfolio
Nifty Midcap 100
25%
Linear (Ambit Good & Clean Midcap Portfolio)
20% Linear (Nifty Midcap 100)
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%

Ambit Good and Clean Midcap Portfolio inception date is Mar 12, 2015; Returns as on 31st Aug, 2020
Returns are net of all fees and expenses;
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 3
Ambit Asset Management
How did we deliver this?

Good risk adjusted returns is an outcome of Good Processes characterized by:

1 2
Stringent quantitative filters Experienced team
& deep-dive research

 Each offering is based on deeply researched and back  Dedicated and experienced research team
tested framework to generate the investment universe  Research processes inspired by IE Research
 High threshold for performance over long spans of  Investment Committee to approve all investment
time, greatly minimize chances of poor performers or decisions
poor quality companies entering into the investment  Part of larger Ambit group lends advantages
universe  Focus on what is knowable and what is important
 High quality of accounts and corporate governance is
uncompromised

3 4
Focus on earnings growth + earnings Risk management
quality

 Lower obsession with timing when one is investing in  Concentrated Portfolios deliver best returns as returns
a superior calibre of companies do not get average out
 Companies with a consistent track record and  Lower drawdowns due to consistent performers in
leadership traits are preferred secular sectors
 Past track record + Future sector potential + Current  Long term orientation with low churn realize the power
management capabilities = Comfort on delivering of compounding
quality earnings

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 4


Ambit Asset Management
Ambit’s Good & Clean Midcap Portfolio - Investment Process

1 Stringent quantitative filters

 Invest in firms which are:


(a) Good - On the basis of capital allocation track record and
quality of improvement in financial metrics over the past six
years, and
(b) Clean - Based on the quality of their accounts & corporate
governance.

 The focus on ‘good’ helps generate upside while not


compromising on ‘clean’ reduces downside risk. Essentially,
while the objective is to generate returns, the even bigger goal
is to better manage drawdowns because we believe doing the
latter successfully is critically vital in achieving the former.

 Ambit’s proprietary ‘forensic accounting’ framework helps weed


out firms with poor quality accounts while our proprietary
‘greatness’ framework helps identify efficient capital allocators
with a holistic approach to consistent growth.

 The result is a concentrated portfolio of 15-20 stocks that


draws down lesser than the market in corrections and has
low churn (not more than 15-20% of portfolio in any year
amounting to 2-3 holdings being replaced).

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 5


Ambit Asset Management
Focus on ‘good’ helps generate upside

Ambit’s ‘greatness’ framework identifies efficient capital Greatness model has outperformed BSE500 by a
allocators in the country whopping 3.6% annually

a. Investment 1800
(gross block)
1600

1400
Greatness Model
1200 (16.8% CAGR)
e. Cash b. Conversion of
1000
Generation investment to sales
(CFO) (asset turnover, sales) 800 BSE500 (ex-BFSI)
(13.2% CAGR)
600

400

200

Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
d. Balance sheet c. Pricing
discipline discipline
(D/E, cash ratio) (PBIT margin) Source: Ambit Capital research; Note: The backtest is based on annual rebalancing with
forward-looking returns; For the most recent year, the framework include number until FY18
and returns are calculated from Dec'03 to Dec'19;

Our greatness framework looks at holistic and consistent growth as the hallmarks of efficient capital allocation- a self
sufficient growth engine without the need of tapping external capital frequently is key to long term wealth creation.

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 6


Ambit Asset Management
Not compromising on ‘clean’ is critical to managing drawdowns

Ambit’s proprietary forensic accounting model Strong link between accounting quality and stock
helps steer clear firms with questionable accounts performance
Zone of Darkness
Accounting checks The bottom three deciles i.e. the
worst quality stocks on accounting
P&L Mis-statement quality, have underperformed
• Abysmally low CFO/EBITDA ratio over a long run 24%
• High volatility in Depreciation Rates

Median share price performance


20%
• Boasting earning through lower debtor provisioning

(Nov '13 to Nov '19)


B/S Mis-statement 16%
• Low Cash yield implying balance sheet misstatement
12%
• Writing-off losses directly through balance sheet
8%
• High contingent liability
Pilferage Checks 4%
• High Miscellaneous expenses
0%
• Unsubstantiated capex or delay in plant commissioning D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10
• Historically generating negative free cash flows Accounting score based deciles
• Increasing advances to related party Source: Ace Equity, Capitaline, Ambit Capital research; Note: Accounting score is based on
Auditor Quality annual financial s over FY12-18; stock price performance is from Nov’12 to Nov’18 on a CAGR
basis. Universe for this exhibit is BSE500 (ex-BFSI)
• High auditor remuneration

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 7


Ambit Asset Management
Ambit’s proprietary forensic accounting model is an ongoing process

Zone of Darkness companies underperformed massively Fraud Triangle in the Indian


below Zone of Safety companies during market downturns Corporate context

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 8


Ambit Asset Management
Why accounting check matters? Case Study - Wirecard

A renowned Big 4 auditing firm (been with the


company since 2008) failed to report Wirecard’s
“unorthodox financial arrangements” possibly due
to irregularities in accounting and auditing
processes.
Later, another Big 4 auditing firm was called in to
do a special audit which stated it could not verify
that arrangements responsible for most of Wirecard
profits reported during 2016 to 2018 to be genuine.
The controversy is centred on the missing Euro
1.9bn from Wirecard, which was said to be stored
in banks across foreign geographies, but an
investigation turned up nothing. The money
represented around a quarter of the total revenue
the company had earned between 2016 and 2019.

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 9


Ambit Asset Management
Asset Management Team

2 Experienced team & deep-dive research


Fund Management Sales

Investment Process

• Investment Universe is
researched by Sector
analysts

• Sector Analyst
recommends to the
Investment Committee

• Investment Committee
approves all entry and
exits from Portfolios

Investment Committee
• Senior Ambit Delegate
Operations Customer Service
• Group Head – Risk
• Sushant Bhansali
• Manish Jain
• Aishvarya Dadheech

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 10


Ambit Asset Management
Earnings growth is the only driver of share prices…

3 Focus on earnings growth + earnings quality

4,500
4,000
Sensex Index Sensex EPS
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
Jan-91

Jan-92

Jan-93

Jan-94

Jan-95

Jan-96

Jan-97

Jan-98

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Source: BSE, Ambit Capital
Sensex Price and EPS are based to 100 on Jan 1991

Page Industries Mkt Cap (Rs cr) Trailing EPS Trailing P/E (x)
Apr-10 920 27 31

Apr-20 20,271 334 54

CAGR 36% 29% 6%

Source: Ambit Capital Earnings contributed to ~80% of the share price growth

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 11


Ambit Asset Management
Portfolio Composition & Characteristics

5.0
 Stellar track records of capital
allocation in terms of RoE Duopoly
4.0
 Low debt with the median
portfolio company cash positive
3.0
 Median market cap of the Oilgopoly

portfolio is ~Rs15,000 cr.


2.0

 Growth potential above the


Fragmented
comparable index
1.0

 Reasonable valuations for


quality stocks
0.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 Segment/ 3.0 4.0 5.0
Challenger Industry Leader
Region Leader

Bubbles refer to individual companies in Good & Clean Portfolio;


Size of the bubble indicates Model Portfolio Weights

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 12


Ambit Asset Management
Good & Clean philosophy delivers

4 Risk Management

MODEL PORTFOLIO MARKETCAP ALLOCATION MODEL PORTFOLIO SECTOR ALLOCATION MARKETCAP

Nifty
G&C Nifty Financials 31%
Comparison with Indices Midcap
Midcap Index
Index Cons Disc 24%
Mid Cap
Pharmaceuticals 10%
Debt/ Equity FY20 0.3x 1.9x 1.2x
Homebuilding 11% 77% Large Cap
P/E FY20 29x 26x 26x
Specialty Chemicals 10%
Revenue 14% -4% 9% Small Cap
Past 5Y Growth
PAT 12% 2% 3% Automobile 6%

FY19 18% 7% 12% Industrials 5%


Cash/Equivalent
RoE
FY20 17% 5% 11% Cash/Equivalent 3%
16%
4%
All Portfolio statistics are weighted average except for Debt/equity 3%

SUPERIOR RISK ADJUSTED RETURNS AND DRAWDOWN TRACK RECORD

Performance Net Returns Standard Sharpe Maximum


(since inception) (CAGR) Deviation Ratio Drawdown
9.6% 20% 0.13 -30%
Ambit Good & Clean Midcap Portfolio
4.2% 23% -0.12 -45%
Nifty Midcap 100

Source: Ambit
Note: Performance is post all fees and charges; Date of inception of the Good & Clean Midcap Portfolios is 12 Mar’15. Return as of 31st Aug, 2020.

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 13


Ambit Asset Management
Live track record – Ambit Good & Clean Midcap Portfolio

Since
Returns as on 31st Aug'20 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y
inception*

Ambit Good & Clean Midcap Portfolio 5.4% 19.5% -6.0% 4.5% 3.3% 7.8% 10.9% 9.6%

NIFTY Midcap 100 7.8% 25.7% -0.6% 6.6% -8.5% -3.0% 5.0% 4.2%

NIFTY 50 2.8% 18.9% 1.7% 3.3% -1.3% 4.7% 7.4% 4.9%

Peers Average (Midcap MFs) 7.1% 23.0% -2.3% 8.0% -3.5% 0.6% 6.6% 5.9%

Ambit Good & Clean Midcap Portfolio NAV Nifty Midcap 100 NAV

200
180 165
160
140
120
125
100
80
60
40
20
0
Dec-15

Dec-16

Dec-17

Dec-18

Dec-19
Apr-15
May-15

Apr-16
May-16

Apr-17
May-17

Apr-18
May-18

Apr-19
May-19

Apr-20
May-20
Oct-15
Mar-15

Jun-15

Jun-16

Oct-16

Jun-17

Oct-17

Jun-18

Oct-18

Jun-19

Oct-19

Jun-20
Aug-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

Aug-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

Aug-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

Aug-20
Jul-15

Sep-15

Feb-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Feb-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Feb-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Feb-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Feb-20

Jul-20
Portfolio inception date is March 12, 2015; Returns as of 31st Aug, 2020; Returns above one year is annualized; Performance is post all fees and charges

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 14


Ambit Asset Management
Key Terms

Fund Type SEBI Registered PMS


Fund Tenure Open Ended
Structure Discretionary PMS
Minimum investment INR 50 lacs

Investible universe is stocks that perform well on the framework noted earlier. A further subjective
Stock selection
assessment then leads to a more concentrated stock portfolio

Number of stocks 15-20


25% per sector (except BFSI), 10% per stock
All cap with ‘Nifty Midcap 100’ as the benchmark

Time horizon and turnover The investment horizon is 1-3 years and longer; turnover therefore should not exceed an average of 15-20%

Not to take aggressive cash calls; this is keeping in mind the longer term investment horizon of the fund and
Cash calls
is suitable from a taxation standpoint

Custodian & Fund


ICICI Bank Limited.
Accountant

Brokers Ambit Capital, Motilal Oswal, Kotak Securities

Depository Participant
Ambit Capital (Central Depository Services Limited)

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 15


Ambit Asset Management
Ambit Asset Management Overview

900
AUM (in Cr. Rs) 806
800
734
700
600
500 491
409
400
338
300
218
200
123
100
19 25 35 46
0
Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20
Ambit Good & Clean Portfolio Ambit Emerging Giants Portfolio Ambit Coffee Can Portfolio
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 16
Ambit Asset Management
Ambit Overview

Pre-eminent full-service India focused Investment Bank

 Innovative solutions that reduce complexity CORPORATE FINANCE


 Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) and Divestitures
 Deep understanding of prevalent regulatory framework  Equity Capital Markets (ECM)

 Broad range of tailor-made solutions for Business Owners, Corporates,


Institutional Investors, Family Offices and High Net Worth Individuals
(HNWIs) CREDIT (AMBIT FINVEST)
Experienced and Professional pan-India Team  Structured Finance
 SME Finance
 Team of 450+

 20 Offices in India, Singapore and USA


Successful Partnerships INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES
 Differentiated and path breaking Research
 Strategic partnership with QInvest, Qatar
 Equities Trading
 Strategic business alliance with Daiwa, Japan for M&A
Proven Track Record
 Consistently ranked amongst the top 10 M&A advisory firms. Advised ASSET MANAGEMENT
175+ transactions with announced deal value of USD 20 bn+  Portfolio Management
 Offshore Advisory
 Increasingly a top 3 broker for top investors locally and globally.
Consistently ranked in the top 3 Best Local Broker category in the
ASiAMONEY Brokers Polls.
GLOBAL PRIVATE CLIENT
 In-depth and fundamental Research (Economy/strategy/sectoral)  Investment Advisory
 Asset Allocation
 Manages wealth of 1800+ HNI families. Ambit Private Wealth  Tax and Estate Planning
adjudged Best Private Bank in India in the ASIAMONEY Private
Banking Polls for four consecutive years from 2013 - 2016

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 17


Ambit Asset Management
Ambit Executive Committee

ASHOK WADHWA SANJAY SAKHUJA GAUTAM GUPTE


Group CEO Executive Chairman Group COO
Ambit Finvest

Experience: 36 years Experience: 36 years Experience: 27 years


Ambit: 22 years Ambit: >17 years Ambit: >19 years
Formerly Managing Partner – Arthur Andersen Formerly with Lazard, Arthur Andersen, Citibank Formerly with SBI Capital Markets

SUSHANT BHANSALI
VIKAS KHATTAR AUSANG SHUKLA
CEO
Managing Director and Head of Managing Director and Head of
Asset Management
Equity Capital Markets & Corporate Finance
Financial Sponsors Group

Experience: 22 years Experience: 17 years Experience: 18 years


Ambit: >2 year Ambit: >4 years Ambit: >12 years
Formerly with Jefferies, DSP Merrill Lynch, Formerly with Macquarie Capital, Lehman Formerly with MSCI and PwC
Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and HSBC Brothers, Nomura and PricewaterhouseCoopers

SANJAY AGARWAL VIKRANT NARANG


DHIRAJ AGARWAL
CEO Dy CEO
Co-Head of Institutional Equities
Ambit Finvest Ambit Finvest
and Head of Equity Sales

Experience: 23 years Experience: 18 years Experience: 27 years


Ambit: ~2 years Ambit: >3 years Ambit: >1 year
Formerly with Finmax, Yes Bank, Centurion Formerly with KKR, Barclays, ABN Amro Formerly with Standard Chartered Securities,
Bank of Punjab and SBI Commercial & and PwC Sharekhan/SSKI, CLSA, Boyer Allan
International Bank Ltd

SANJIT CHOWDHRY AMRITA FARMAHAN NITIN BHASIN


Managing Director CEO Co-Head of Institutional Equities
Risk, Strategy, Corporate Global Private Client and Head of Equity Research
Communications

Experience: 25+ years Experience: 20 years Experience: 17 years


Ambit: 6 months Ambit: >9 months Ambit: >9 years
Formerly with BanyanTree Bank Ltd., RBL Bank, Barclays, Formerly with Avendus, Reliance Private Client, Formerly with SRF Limited, Emkay, Kotak
Standard Chartered, ANZ Grindlays Citibank (Citigold Private Client) Institutional Equities and Execution Noble

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 18


Ambit Asset Management
Risk Disclosure and Disclaimer

 Ambit Investment Advisors Private Limited (“Ambit”), is a registered Portfolio Manager with Securities and Exchange Board of India vide registration number
INP000005059.
 This presentation / newsletter / report is strictly for information and illustrative purposes only and should not be considered to be an offer, or solicitation of an offer,
to buy or sell any securities or to enter into any Portfolio Management agreements. This presentation / newsletter / report is prepared by Ambit strictly for the
specified audience and is not intended for distribution to public and is not to be disseminated or circulated to any other party outside of the intended purpose. This
presentation / newsletter / report may contain confidential or proprietary information and no part of this presentation / newsletter / report may be reproduced in any
form without its prior written consent to Ambit. If you receive a copy of this presentation / newsletter / report and you are not the intended recipient, you should
destroy this immediately. Any dissemination, copying or circulation of this communication in any form is strictly prohibited. This material should not be circulated in
countries where restrictions exist on soliciting business from potential clients residing in such countries. Recipients of this material should inform themselves
about and observe any such restrictions. Recipients shall be solely liable for any liability incurred by them in this regard and will indemnify Ambit for any liability it
may incur in this respect.
 Neither Ambit nor any of their respective affiliates or representatives make any express or implied representation or warranty as to the adequacy or accuracy of
the statistical data or factual statement concerning India or its economy or make any representation as to the accuracy, completeness, reasonableness or
sufficiency of any of the information contained in the presentation / newsletter / report herein, or in the case of projections, as to their attainability or the accuracy
or completeness of the assumptions from which they are derived, and it is expected each prospective investor will pursue its own independent due diligence. In
preparing this presentation / newsletter / report, Ambit has relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of
information available from public sources. Accordingly, neither Ambit nor any of its affiliates, shareholders, directors, employees, agents or advisors shall be liable
for any loss or damage (direct or indirect) suffered as a result of reliance upon any statements contained in, or any omission from this presentation / newsletter /
report and any such liability is expressly disclaimed.
 You are expected to take into consideration all the risk factors including financial conditions, Risk-Return profile, tax consequences, etc. You understand that the
past performance or name of the portfolio or any similar product do not in any manner indicate surety of performance of such product or portfolio in future. You
further understand that all such products are subject to various Market Risks, Settlement Risks, Economical Risks, Political Risks, Business Risks, and Financial
Risks etc. You are expected to thoroughly go through the terms of the arrangements / agreements and understand in detail the Risk-Return profile of any security
or product of Ambit or any other service provider before making any investment. You should also take professional / legal /tax advice before making any decision
of investing or disinvesting. Ambit or Ambit associates may have financial or other business interests that may adversely affect the objectivity of the views
contained in this presentation / newsletter / report.
 Ambit does not guarantee the future performance or any level of performance relating to any products of Ambit or any other third party service provider.
Investment in any product including mutual fund or in the product of third party service provider does not provide any assurance or guarantee that the objectives of
the product are specifically achieved. Ambit shall not be liable for any losses that you may suffer on account of any investment or disinvestment decision based on
the communication or information or recommendation received from Ambit on any product. Further Ambit shall not be liable for any loss which may have arisen by
wrong or misleading instructions given by you whether orally or in writing.
 The product ‘Ambit Good & Clean Portfolio’ and ‘Ambit Coffee Can” have been migrated from Ambit Capital Private Limited to Ambit Investments Advisors Private
Limited. Hence some of the information in this presentation may belong to the period when this product was managed by Ambit Capital Private Limited.
 You may contact your Relationship Manager for any queries.

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Pg 19


Ambit Asset Management
THANK YOU & STAY SAFE

You might also like