Environmental Modelling

Assignment 1
CEE475 (2021 spring)

Submitted By
Partho Bosak Sagor
ID:1612389025
Section: 1

Submitted To

Dr. Md. Sirajul Islam

Ph. D., The University of Tokyo, Japan

M. Sc. Engg. (Civil), National University of Singapore (NUS),
Singapore
B. Sc. Engg. (Civil), Bangladesh University of Engineering and
Technology (BUET)
Definition:
A general circulation model (GCM) is a type of climate model. It employs a
mathematical model of the general circulation of a planetary atmosphere or
ocean. It uses the Navier–Stokes equations. GCMs usually include equations
that describe the energy changes that occur when regions of different
temperature, pressure, chemical composition, velocities, and accelerations
interact with each other. Some GCMs focus on modelling the atmosphere
(AGCMs) while others model the ocean (OGCMs). More advanced versions
couple the atmosphere and ocean (AOGCMs), but become increasingly
complex.

GCM Applications:

GCMs have three primary applications: The 1st one is weather and climate
prediction, and investigations aimed at increasing understanding of the climate
system. For deterministic numerical weather prediction the model is initialized
by combining model predicted and observed data. The current standard
technique for prediction is based on performing ensembles integrations, in
which each ensemble may have a few dozen members. At present, the limit of
practical predictability achieved by deterministic forecasts is 7–8 days in winter,
as determined by mid-latitude anomaly correlation 60% score. More recently,
GCMs coupled to an oceanic general circulation model have been used for
climate predictions of the first kind. It is too early to determine the limit of
practical predictability in this case, but successes from several months in
advance have been reported.
For the second application, the typical methodology for research starts by
performing a GCM simulation long enough to achieve quasi-equilibrium, which
is then defined as the model's climate. The next step repeats the simulation by
altering the model component representative of the process under investigation.
One of the earliest applications of this technique addressed the role played by
the Himalayas on the Indian summer monsoon by comparing model climates
with and without those elevations. The technique has been applied extensively
to examine the global impacts on the atmosphere of SST anomalies, such as
those associated with El Niño and La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean as well
as similar phenomena in the other oceans.
The third GCM application has been climate change expected as a result of the
changing atmospheric composition. GCMs are particularly suitable for this
problem, which involves many interactions and feedbacks. The impact of
increased greenhouse gases has been assessed by comparing model climates
with different concentrations of those gases. For these studies, atmospheric
GCMs have been coupled to ocean models of diverse complexity. Such coupled
models can be used to explore how the oceans can delay the effects of
greenhouse warming. More recently, the role of increasing sulphate aerosols has
been questioned and GCMs have been coupled to sulfur chemistry models. Such
models can be used to assess the indirect aerosol forcing problem, namely, the
impact on climate of changes in reflectivity, formation, and residence time of
clouds in the presence of aerosols.

List of some General Circulation Models (GCMs):

CGCM3: The Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) is a
product of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis. It updates
the earlier Second Generation Coupled Global Climate Model with a new
atmospheric component, the oceanic component remaining unchanged.
CNRM: CNRM-CM5 is the CMIP5 version of the ESM developed jointly by
CNRM (Météo-France/CNRS) and CERFACS since 1995. The atmospheric
component, ARPEGE, is a specific version of the French weather forecast
model developed by ECMWF (IFS) and CNRM, adapted for climate
simulations. ARPEGE is available for the scientific community with an
exclusive aim of research, within the framework of the “Community Climate
Model” project.
GFDL: Scientists at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory develop and
use dynamical, numerical models and computer simulations to improve our
understanding and make projections of the behaviour of the atmosphere, the
oceans, and climate, using supercomputer and data storage resources. These
models have become key tools to understand the physical and biogeochemical
processes that control the earth’s climate. Models are used to investigate the
extent to which observed climate changes may be due to natural causes (for
example, sun, volcanic activity) or may be attributable to human activities (for
example, emissions of greenhouse gases and particulates, land-use). They
support more accurate prediction of phenomena in the atmosphere, the oceans,
and on land over seasonal, decadal and centennial time scales.
HadCM3 :HadCM3 is a coupled climate model that has been used extensively
for climate prediction, detection and attribution, and other climate sensitivity
studies. HadCM3 stands for the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3. It was
developed in 1999 and was the first unified model climate configuration not to
require flux adjustments (artificial adjustments applied to climate model
simulations to prevent them drifting into unrealistic climate states
Marsh98: The Marsh 98 model has been used widely to examine marsh
sustainability to sea level rise across San Francisco Bay (e.g. Orr et al., 2003).
The Marsh98 model is based on the mass balance calculations described by
Krone (1987). This model assumes that the elevation of a marsh plain rises at
rates that depend on the (1) availability of suspended sediment and (2) depth
and periods of inundation by high tides. Marsh98 implements physical
processes by calculating the amount of suspended sediment that deposits during
each period of tidal inundation and sums that amount of deposition over the
period of record.

Steps in formulation of General circulation model:

 Identification of important system components.
 Proposed structure of the model.
 Finite Volume discretization.
 Algorithm
 Suitable modelling scheme (governing equation/parameters).
 Integration of different components.
 Simulation of the modelling (development /testing)
 Free-surface treatment.

Validation of GCMs:

There are three primary mechanisms to validating model components and their
results. The first is to see if the model can reproduce current climate conditions
on Earth. Using observations of various meteorological parameters and
atmospheric characteristics as comparisons, the models can be run to see if they
can reproduce large-scale climate features such as seasonal changes in
temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric wind patterns. A second method is
to isolate certain pieces of the model, such as the soil moisture or cloud model
component, and run sensitivity studies to see how well they correspond to actual
observations and measurements. An important point to note is that empirical
parameterizations that do not account for the underlying physical processes may
reproduce observed conditions of certain climatic variables, but may not be
good models when considering feedbacks and complex interrelationships
between one or more variables. A third method of model validation involves
testing the model against long-term paleoclimate records of Earth, and even
with observed conditions of the nearby terrestrial planets, Mars and Venus.
Resolution:
The Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, which is part of the
UK Meteorological Office, developed the general circulation model. A linked
atmospheric model, ocean model, and sea-ice model make up the GCM. The
atmospheric model has a horizontal resolution of 2.5° latitude and 3.75°
longitude.
Because of the way certain processes and feedbacks are modelled, different
GCMs will simulate quite different responses to the same forcing. Although
these variations in response are generally compatible with the climate sensitivity
range defined in criterion 1, they are unlikely to fulfil criterion 4 regarding
regional projection uncertainty ranges. Due to other uncertainties that GCMs do
not completely address, such as with the range of estimates of potential
atmospheric composition, even selecting all possible GCM studies does not
guarantee a representative range.

How do GCMs Work:

 Divide up the atmosphere and oceans into a complex 3-D grid; each grid
may represent 2° of latitude and 2° of longitude (roughly 200 km on a
side), and the models typically have 20 - 40 vertical layers, which would
give you about half a million cells.
 Assign the starting conditions for each grid — the type of material (air,
soil, water, etc.), temperature, salinity of the oceans, humidity of the air,
greenhouse gas concentrations, insolation, and a whole host of other
variables and constants. Typically, these starting conditions are a
simplified snapshot of the current climate on Earth.
 Based on the temperature, salinity, and humidity, the program calculates
the pressure in each grid cell, which combines with the rotation of the
Earth to determine the velocities in each cell. The velocities then
determine how the cells will exchange heat, moisture, salinity, etc., with
their neighbouring cells. The program then makes all of these transfers,
and then updates the conditions of each cell — these new conditions
then determine how things will move in the next time step. These
calculations are done in very short time increments (typically a few
minutes), and the result is that they can simulate the circulation of the
atmosphere and the oceans.
 Based on temperature, pressure, flow patterns, and humidity, the models
simulate the formation of clouds, which then impact the albedo
 (reflectance of sunlight) and the absorption of heat emitted from the
surface.
 The models also calculate the evaporation of water from the surface and
the precipitation of water, and its runoff over the land back to the
oceans. The evaporation and precipitation are associated with big
transfers of energy, and the model keeps track of this, too.
 All models represent land topography. Many models also include
representations of photosynthesis on land, the exchange of CO 2 between
the plants, soil, oceans, and atmosphere, and sedimentation in the ocean.

Usability of this model:

General circulation models (GCMs) are valuable tools for developing a
quantitative understanding of climate dynamics and climate change, and studies
conducted using GCMs have provided important insights into the climate of the
Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). GCMs attempt to fully describe the dimensional
geometry of the atmosphere and other components of Earth's climate system.
Atmospheric GCMs numerically solve the equations of physics (e.g., dynamics,
thermodynamics, radioactive transfer, etc.) and chemistry applied to the
atmosphere and its constituent components, including the greenhouse gases. In
more primitive GCMs (the earlier generation models), the role of the ocean was
treated in a very basic way, e.g., as a simple slab of water where only the
thermodynamic role of the ocean was accounted for. These models include
Information regarding the atmospheric chemistry, land type, carbon cycle,
ocean Circulation, and the isolated area's glacial makeup. This model is more
sophisticated than the energy balance and intermediate complexity models. Still,
it does require a larger amount of computing time—each simulation could take
several weeks to run.

References:
https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth103/node/524
https://www.encyclopedia.com/environment/energy-government-and-defense-
magazines/general-circulation-model-gcm
https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/mva/iamcc.tg/GCM_thematic_guide.html#val
idation
https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo469/node/140