Chapter? Probability 2.1 Introduction The numerical measure of certainty of an event is called probability. The probability of any event lies between 0 and 1. Probability of a sure event is 1 while that of an impossible evert is 0. ‘Sample Space: The set ofall possible outcomes associated with an experiment is called sample space. For example while tossing a coin, the sample space is(H. Tend while tossing two coins, S = (HH, HT,TH,TT), whereas while rolling a dice;S = (1.2.3,4.5.6). ‘An event isthe subset of a sample space. For example getting an odd number while rolling a dice is aneventE = (1,35, Exhaustive Event Two or more events are called exhaustive events if at least one of them occurs when an experiment 1s performed. For exemple while tossing a coin; there are two exhaustive cases head and tail. Also while rolling 2 dice, getting an odd number and getting an even number are two exhaustive events. Whereas gesting a number less than 2 and getting a number greater than 2, in cate of rolling a dice are non- exhaustive events Mutually Exclusive Events: Two or more events Ey. E:soeus/Eq ima sample space are mutually exclusive if they have no point in common ie. if ££: 0. uM Eq = @. Getting en odd number and getting an even number while rolling a dice are two mutually exclusive events If eventsEy,£:, m1. Enin a semple space ere mutually exclusiveand exheustive thenP (Es) + P(E) + P(E) = 1 Equally Likely Events: Two or more events are equally likely if they have same probability of occurrence. Getting an odd number and getting an even number while rolling an unbiased dice are twvo mutually exclusive end equally likely events Independent Events: Two events are said to be independent if the occurence er non — eccurrence of ene does net affect the probability of the occurrence of the ether. Mathematically the events £; and Ez are independentif and only if P(Et) x P(E2), * If two events are independent, then they cannot be mutually exclusive and vice-versa. P(E: Ey‘Mathematical Definition of Probability: fa trial results in n exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely events and m of them ame favorable to happening of an event£, then probability of happening of F is given by Favorablenumberofeases _n(E) _m P(E) = Fraustivenumberofeases = a(S) ~ 7 Example 2.1 Give an example of two events which are mutually exclusive but not exhaustive Solution: In an experiment of tossing tivo coins, let ‘Now S= (#H,HT.TH,TT) Ey = (HH)andE: = (17) @ but PCEL)+ P(E) = 2 Hence the events ZandE, are mutually exclusive but not exhaustive. Example 2.2 Give an example of two events in an experiment of tossing two coins, which are mutually exclusive and exhaustive Solution: In an experiment of tossing two coins, let g, etting at least one head Ez: Getting two tails Now S= (HH,HT,TH,TT) Ey = (HH.HT.TH)andE: = (77) 2,0 Ez = g and P(E:) + P(E) = 1 Hence the events EyandE, are mutually exclusive and exhaustive. Example 2.3 An um contains 5 white, 6 red and 4 blackballs. Two balls are drawn at random. Find the probability that both are red. Also find the probability of one white and one bla: tall Solution: White Balls : 5, Red Balls : 6, Black Balls :+ Let £: Both balls are red P(E) = P(redball)andP(redball)sat SPER Sx Sat Let F: One white and one black ball are drawn. P(F) = (P(whizeballyand# (blackball))or(F (blackballandP (whiteball)) sty sls Xp ns =P(F Note: Questions in which replacement is not allowed can be attempted in a better manner using combinations. bes OS Using combinations, P(E)= = Seyxde, _ Sua Tie, Sele P(FY Example 2.4An um contains 4 white, 5 red and 6 black balls. Three balls are drawn at random. Find the probability that balls are white, red and black. Solution: White Balls: 4 Red Balls: 5 Black Balls: 6 Lete: Balls are white, red and black Se XSeyxbe, _ anno e)= feetene, = PEP Ee Tapas Example 2.5 Four cards are drawn without replacement from 2 well shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that () —Allare spades (ii) There are two spades and two hearts Gi) Allare black Solution: LetZ,: All cards are spades Ex: There are two spades and two hearts Ey: All are black Be Re P(E) =‘Note: If the four cards are drawn with replacement 13131313 5252 52 %6 (+ Favorable events are SSHH or HHSS or SHSH or SHHS or HSHS or HSSH where S denotes Spade and H denotes Heart) 26 26 26 26 x = 52 P(E) Example 2.6 A pair of dice is rolled, What isthe probability of sum 7? Solution: Let E: Getting a sum 7, when 2 pair of dice is rolled +(1,6), (2.1). (2,2) (2.6), (3.1), (3.2), . (56). (6.1). (6.2) Example 2.7 Only 3 events A.B\C can happen. Given that chance of A is one-third that of B and odds against C are 2:1, find odds in faver of A. Solution: Given P(A) + P(5) + P(C) = 2 Also P(A) (B) = P(B) = 3 P(A)... .® And P(C) = Using ©, Din @ = P(A) + 5P(A)+ =4P(A) =P(A) = dandp(a) = £ Hence odds in favor of A are 1:5 22 Addition Law of Probability Statement: If A and 5 be any two events, then P(AUB) = P(A) + P(8) - P(A)Proof: AUB = AU (50.4%) = P(AU5)=P(AU (BN A)) = P(A) + P(B NA‘) («Botha and 5 2 AS axe disjoint) =P(A) + [P(8 9 AS) + P(AN 8) -P(ANS) =P(A) + P[(B NAS) U(ANB)) — P(ANB) =P(A)+ P(B)- PCAN) Hence proved. + IEA and B are mutually exclusive events, ANB = = P(AUB) = P(A) + PCB) TEAB,C are 3 events, then P(AUBUC) = P(A) + P(8) + P(C) — PCAN B) ~ P(B NC) P(E NA) +P(ANB NC) Example 2.8 Find the probability of getting a spade or an ace when a card is drawn from a well shuffled pack of $2 cards Solution : Let A: Getting 2 spade, P(A) = 3 B: Getting an ace, P(B)= ANB: Getting an ace of spade, P(ATB) = & Now P(A UB) = P(A) + P(B) — P(ANS) Example 2.9 Find the probability of getting neither heart nor king when # card is drawn from well shuffled pack of 52 cards Solution : Let A: Getting a card of heart, P(A) = B: Getting a card of king, PB Again Probability of neither heart nor king is given by P(E 5°)P(AE NBS) = P(AUB)E=1-P(4 UB) Example 2.10 Three newspapers A, B, C ate published in a city and a survey on readers reveals the following information: atead A, 30% read B, 20° read C, 10% read both A and B, Ste read both A and C, §% read both B and C, 3% read ell three newspapers, For a person chosen at random, find the probability that he reads none of the newspapers. Solution: (A)= 25, PB) = 32, C=, PANBNO)= 3 a io nB) = 22, = pBIE= P(ANB) = 3, (ANC) = 5, PBC) 6 Now P(A UB UC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) — PAN) — P(B NC) — P(ANC) +P(AN BA 9) =PAUBUC) = =P(AUBUC)® = 1-P(AUBUC) us Example 2.11 Discuss and comment on following: Solution: Since A,B,C are mutually exclusive events, P(AU BUC) = P(A) + P(B) = PCC) =PavBUC) = Which is not possible, hence it is a false statement.