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Improving Earthquake Prediction with Principal Component Analysis:

Application to Chile

Article  in  Lecture Notes in Computer Science · June 2015

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-19644-2-33

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 Improving Earthquake Prediction with Principal

Component Analysis: Application to Chile

G. Asencio-Cortés1 , F. Martínez-Álvarez1 ,
A. Morales-Esteban2 , J. Reyes3 , and A. Troncoso1
1
Department of Computer Science, Pablo de Olavide University of Seville, Spain
{guaasecor,fmaralv,ali}@upo.es
2
Department of Building Structures and Geotechnical Engineering, University of Seville, Spain
ame@us.es
3
NT2 Labs, Chile
daneel@geofisica.cl

Abstract. Increasing attention has been paid to the prediction of earth-

quakes with data mining techniques during the last decade. Several works
have already proposed the use of certain features serving as inputs for
supervised classiers. However, they have been successfully used without
any further transformation so far. In this work, the use of principal com-
ponent analysis to reduce data dimensionality and generate new datasets
is proposed. In particular, this step is inserted in a successfully already
used methodology to predict earthquakes. Santiago and Pichilemu, two
of the cities mostly threatened by large earthquakes occurrence in Chile,
are studied. Several well-known classiers combined with principal com-
ponent analysis have been used. Noticeable improvement in the results
is reported.

Keywords: Earthquake prediction, principal component analysis, time

series, data mining.

1 Introduction

Earthquake prediction is a task of utmost diculty that involves many vari-

ables. Although many studies have identied several phenomena as earthquake
precursors, they have not been reliably encountered all over the world.
The prediction of large magnitude earthquakes is of particular importance
given its potential to cause loss of life. Earthquake prediction must be distin-
guished from earthquake forecasting (probabilistic assessment of earthquake haz-
ard) and from earthquake warning systems (real-time warnings to specic areas
once an earthquake has occurred). Since there is no practical method for success-
fully and systematically predicting earthquakes so far, it is needed to conducting
research in this direction.
It is well-known that Chile is one of the countries with higher seismic activity
across the world. This is evidenced by the large amount of earthquakes with
magnitude larger than 7.5 Ms encountered during the last centuries. Indeed, the
largest earthquake ever occurred, known as Earthquake of Valdivia, Chile (May
22, 1960) reached a 9.5 Ms magnitude and caused a 10 meter high tsunami [6].
 This work is focused on the application of supervised classiers combined
with principal component analysis (PCA) to improve earthquake prediction.
It is based on the inputs proposed in previous works [12, 16, 21] and searches
for datasets with dierent dimensionality and properties, constructed after the
application of PCA. The problem of data dimensionality reveals that an excessive
number of features usually lead to poorer results. For this reason PCA is a
suitable methodology to create proper vector spaces with adequate number of
coordinates.
The two most seismic Chilean zones described in [20], Santiago, the capital
city of Chile, (Region #5) and Pichilemu (Region #4), have been subjected to
analysis in order to assess the performance of such proposal. But, obviously, this
study could be extended to any other active seismic zone.
It is important to highlight that this work is an attempt to simultaneously
full all the requirements demanded by the Seismological Society of America to
make an accurate prediction [2]. In this sense it provides predictions for when
(within the next ve days), where (at a reduced surface of no more than 100
× 100 km2 for Santiago, and no more than 50 × 50 km2 for Pichilemu), and
how large (magnitude larger than 4.5 Ms , which is an accepted threshold by the
Scientic Community to determine that an earthquake is large enough to cause
losses).
The remainder of the article is structured as follows. Section 2 reviews the
state-of-the-art for earthquake prediction based on data mining. Section 3 de-
scribes the new methodology proposed here. The results for the two cities ana-
lyzed are shown in Section 4. Finally, the conclusions drawn from this study are
summarized in Section 5.

2 Related work

The prediction of earthquakes, due to the devastating eect they may cause
in human activity, has been thoroughly studied as discussed by Panakkat and
Adeli in 2008 [17] and, later in 2012, by Tiampo and Shcherbakov [23]. These
two surveys reveal the vast number of approaches proposed based on geophysical
assumptions and statistical procedures.
However, a new collection of techniques based on data mining are emerging
as powerful tools nowadays as pointed out in recent reviews [3, 15].
The proposal of seismicity indicators as inputs for supervised classiers were
rst proposed in [16]. The authors selected articial neural networks as classier
to make predictions. The zone studied was South California. The same authors
rened their own approach two years later and obtained even better results for
the same location [18].
Another new set of seismicity indicators were proposed in [21]. This time
most of them were based on the well-known Gutenberg-Ritcher's b-value [8], as
well as on the Bath and Omori-Utsu laws. The zones under analysis were four
Chilean cities and surroundings. The same set of seismicity indicators were used
to predict earthquakes in the Iberian Peninsula [12] and even to discover seismic
zoning in Croatia [13].
Another active zone, India, has been analyzed with supervised classiers [5].
Also the tectonic regions of Northeast India have been explored [22]. The au-
thors retrieved earthquake data from NOAA and USGS catalogues and proposed
two non-linear forecasting models. Both approaches are stable and suggest the
existence of certain seasonality in earthquake occurrence in this area.
Zamani et al. [24] also proposed a set of seismicity indicators but, this time,
its performance was assessed before the Qeshm earthquake in South Iran. They
used articial neural networks and adaptive neural fuzzy inference system. The
seismicity in Greece has also been studied [10]. In this work, the authors only
used the magnitude of the previous earthquakes as input and obtained a high
accuracy rate for medium earthquakes. However, the rate considerably decreased
when major seismic events were considered. The northern Red Sea area is not
an exception and has also been analyzed in [1]. The authors compared the per-
formance of their approach to several Box-Jenkins models.
All the mentioned methods have obtained, in general terms, good results.
However they all share a same feature: none of them questioned the quality of
the sets they used or even they tried to transform. This gap in the literature
justies the conduction of this research study.

3 Methodology

This section describes the proposed approach to improve earthquake prediction

methodologies used in [21] and [11].
First of all, it is worth noting that a prediction problem has been turned into
a binary classication one. That is, the labels assigned to every event have infor-
mation about the future: a sample has been labeled with an 1 if an earthquake
with a magnitude larger than a preset threshold has occurred within the next
days; and with a 0 if not. The horizon of prediction has been set to ve days
for Chile [21]. The triggering thresholds are those that ensure balanced training
sets [7, 9] as proposed in [12, 21], and are 4.5 for both cities.
Figure 1 illustrates the full process. Every task is described below:

Set of
inputs #1

New sets
PCA ANN, J48, RF MODELS Predictions

Set of
inputs #2

Training Test Model

sets sets assessment

Fig. 1. Steps involved in the proposed methodology.

1. Set of inputs #1 stands for the features proposed in [21] whereas set of
inputs #2 are those introduced in [16]. Table 1 lists all these features. Note
that OU stands for Omori-Utsu and GR for Gutenberg-Ritcher. For a deeper
understanding, the reader should refer to the original works.
2. Principal component analysis (PCA). This step transforms original data into
a new dataset with reduced dimensionality and dierent physical properties.
Since the goal of this work is to evaluate its usefulness, a wide range of prin-
cipal components will be generated in order to determine if PCA improves
or not the prediction process.
3. Application of well-known classiers. In order to make fair comparisons,
articial neural networks (ANN), classication trees (J48) and random forest
(RF) algorithms have been used. The rst two ones because they were used
in the original works, and the third one because it has been found that
provides even better results.
4. Evaluation of the generated results by means of a wide variety of quality
parameters (see Section 4.1), typically used for assessing classiers perfor-
mance.

Table 1. Set of features used as inputs for classiers.

Set Feature Description

x1 bi − bi−4
x2 bi−4 − bi−8
x3 bi−8 − bi−12
Inputs #1 x4 bi−12 − bi−16
x5 bi−16 − bi−20
x6 OU's law
x7 Dynamic GR's law
T Elapsed time
Mmean Mean magnitude
dE 1/2 Square root of seismic energy
β Slope of magnitude-log plot
Inputs #2 a a−value from GR's law
∆M Magnitude decit
η Mean square deviation

Please note that a prediction is made every time that an earthquake of mag-
nitude larger than 3.0 occurs. In [21], it was shown that the cuto magnitude for
the earthquakes' database of Chile is 3.0 (M0 = 3.0). Ought to the high seismic
activity of the areas under study, a prediction is made almost daily.

4 Experimental study

This section presents the results obtained. First, the quality measures used to
assess the methodology's performance are introduced in Section 4.1. Section 4.2
describes the datasets used in this work. Then, the setup of all the algorithms
used is reported in Section 4.3. Finally, the results themselves for Santiago and
Pichilemu are exposed in Section 4.4.

4.1 Quality measures

To assess the performance of the ANN's designed, several parameters have been
used. In particular:
1. True positives (TP). The number of times that an upcoming earthquake has
been properly predicted.
2. True negatives (TN). The number of times that neither the ANN triggered
an alarm nor an earthquake occurred.
3. False positives (FP). The number of times that the ANN erroneously pre-
dicted the occurrence of an earthquake.
4. False negatives (FN). The number of times that the ANN did not trigger an
alarm but an earthquake did occur.
The combination of these parameters leads to the calculation of:
TN
NPV = (1)
TN + FN

TP
PPV = (2)
TP + FP
where N P V denotes the well-known negative predictive value, and P P V the
well-known positive predictive value.
Additionally, two more parameters that correspond to common statistical
measures of supervised classiers performance have been used to evaluate the
performance of the ANN's. These two parameters, sensitivity or rate of actual
positives correctly identied as such (denoted by Sn ) and specicity or rate of
actual negatives correctly identied (denoted by Sp ), are dened as:
TP
Sn = (3)
TP + FN

TN
Sp = (4)
TN + FP
To globally take into consideration all these measures, an arithmetic mean
will be calculated for all of these parameters. Obviously, this average could be
weighted reinforcing, for instance, specicity (high reliability when no alarms are
triggered) or PPV (high reliability when an alarm is triggered). However, this
would pose several questions such as determining a subjective weight for each
of them. For this reason, the authors have decided to calculate just the simple
arithmetic average.
4.2 Datasets description

This section describes the datasets used. Two cities of Chile especially aected
by signicant quakes have been analyzed. In particular, Santiago and Pichilemu
earthquake data have been retrieved from a public repository, managed by the
University of Chile's National Service of Seismology [4].
Analyzed cities and surroundings' surfaces are 1◦ ×1◦ for Santiago and 0.5◦ ×
0.5 for Pichilemu, following with the description in [21]. Moreover, these cities
◦

are the main cities in seismic regions #5 and #4, as determined in [20]. This
information is summarized in Table 2.

Table 2. Seismic Chilean areas analyzed.

Main city Seismic area Vertices Dimensions

Pichilemu #4 (34◦ S, 72.5◦ W), (34.5◦ S, 72◦ W) 0.5◦ ×0.5◦
Santiago #5 (33◦ S, 71◦ W), (34◦ S, 70◦ W) 1◦ ×1◦

As for the length of the datasets, Santiago's training set contains the lin-
early independent vectors occurred from August 10th 2005 to March 31th 2010.
Analogously, the test set included the vectors generated from April 1st 2010 to
October 8th 2011. As for Pichilemu, the training set contains the linearly inde-
pendent vectors occurred from August 10th 2005 to March 31st 2010. Its test set
includes the vectors generated from April 1st 2010 to October 8th 2011.

4.3 Parameters setup

The implementation of ANN, J48 and RF algorithms are those integrated in

Weka 3.6 open source tool [14]. In particular, to make comparisons to origi-
nal papers possible, default setup for these methods have been chosen. Table 3
summarizes such conguration.

Table 3. Setup for methods used combined with PCA to assess methodology's perfor-
mance.

Method Setup
ANN numLayers=AUTO, learningRate=0.2, momentum=0.2
RF maxDepth=0, numFeatures=0, numTrees=10
J48 condenceFactor=0.25, minNumObject=2, numFolds=3, unpruned=FALSE

The PCA has been launched in the R environment [19]. In particular, the
Psych package, version 1.4.2.3, has been used with Varimax rotation. The anal-
ysis has been carried out from two to thirteen principal components in order to
evaluate the number of components that better transform the data. This number
has been selected because the number of considered attributes is fourteen.
4.4 Study cases: Santiago and Pichilemu

Results from the application of the proposed methodology to Santiago and

Pichilemu are presented in this section. Table 4 summarizes the results for the
city of Santiago. The best results have been obtained when original data have
been transformed into eleven components prior to the application of the three
selected classiers: ANN, J48 and RF. The average result for the four quality
parameters without previous PCA is 56.01%, whereas a 63.98% average result
has been obtained when PCA has been used. That is, a relative improvement of
14.23%. Figure 2 illustrates the degree of membership for the fourteen attributes
listed in Table 1 (same order in the gure as listed in the table) for the eleven
principal components generated.

1 60
2
3 50
4
5
40
Features

6
7
30
8
9
10 20

11
12 10
13
14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Principal components

Fig. 2. Feature distribution into the eleven principal components for Santiago.

If a eectiveness ranking of methods is performed, with and without the

application of previous PCA, it is noteworthy that RF without PCA obtained
the best result: 74.09%. However, this result is somewhat tricky since only one
TP has been detected. This high average rate is justied due to the low number
of real earthquakes existing in the test set, since RF tends to classify all samples
as negative cases. Even if low false alarm rate is desirable, a 7.10% sensitivity
cannot be interpreted as a satisfactory result. On the contrary, the use of the
PCA obtained the second, third and fourth best results, as wanted to be shown.
Moreover, the results seem to be more stable, reaching higher sensitivity but
maintaining acceptable specicity rates. Moreover, except for RF without PCA,
the other best results have been all reached when PCA has been rstly applied.
Another indicator that shows that the use of PCA generates better results
is the sum of FP and FN. Without PCA this value is 140 (F P + F N = 140)
and with PCA is 50 (F P + F N = 50), a decrease of 64.28%. That is, the use
of PCA generates more reliable predictions since the false negative and positive
rates are dramatically lower.
 Table 4. Results for Santiago with and without previous PCA.

Quality Without PCA With PCA

paremeters ANN J48 RF ANN J48 RF
TP 6 6 1 5 3 2
TN 64 41 108 94 105 107
FP 44 67 0 14 3 1
FN 8 8 13 9 12 11
Sn 42.90% 42.90% 7.10% 35.71% 14.29% 21.43%
Sp 59.26% 37.96% 100.00% 87.04% 97.22% 99.07%
PPV 12.00% 8.20% 100.00% 26.32% 40.00% 75.00%
NPV 88.89% 83.67% 89.26% 91.26% 89.74% 90.68%
Average 50.76% 43.18% 74.09% 60.08% 60.31% 71.55%

Table 5 summarizes the results for the city of Pichilemu. The best results,
this time, have been obtained when PCA has been used with three components,
prior to the application of ANN, J48 and RF, as proposed in the methodology.
The average result for the four quality parameters without previous PCA is
64.08%, whereas a 73.03% average result has been obtained when PCA has
been previously applied. That is, a relative improvement of 13.97%. Figure 3
illustrates the degree of membership for the fourteen attributes listed in Table 1
(same order in the gure as listed in the table) for the three principal components
generated.

1 60
2
3 50
4
5
40
6
Features

7
30
8
9
10 20

11
12 10
13
14
1 2 3
Principal components

Fig. 3. Feature distribution into the three principal components for Pichilemu.

The best result has been obtained when RF has been applied after PCA
with three components, with an average result of 75.57%. Except for the J48
without PCA, again three out of four best results correspond to congurations
with previous PCA. It is particularly remarkable the low number of FP that
RF generated when PCA has been applied: 12 versus 126 generated without
previous PCA. This fact is especially important because too many false alarms
generally turn the predictions quite unreliable.
Again, the sum of FP and FN is signicantly lower when PCA is applied. This
number is 149 without PCA (F P + F N = 149) and 65 with PCA (F P + F N =
105), a value 56.38% better. That is, the inclusion of PCA in the general scheme
of prediction turns its outputs into more reliable results, admitting than less
earthquakes are going to be detected.

Table 5. Results for Pichilemu with and without previous PCA.

Quality Without PCA With PCA

paremeters ANN J48 RF ANN J48 RF
TP 29 17 18 10 12 12
TN 6 79 68 88 89 90
FP 87 14 25 5 4 3
FN 0 12 11 19 17 17
Sn 100% 58.60% 62.10% 34.48% 41.38% 41.38%
Sp 6.45% 84.95% 73.12% 94.62% 95.70% 96.77%
PPV 25.00% 54.80% 41.90% 66.67% 75.00% 80.00%
NPV 100% 86.81% 86.08% 82.24% 83.96% 84.11%
Average 57.86% 71.29% 65.80% 69.50% 74.01% 75.57%

Figures 4 and 5 illustrate the average results of applying PCA from two to
thirteen components. It can be appreciated that the best results are achieved
with eleven and three components for Santiago and Pichilemu, respectively. As
for the rest of the values, it can be easily concluded that an adequate application
of PCA may lead to major improvements in terms of accuracy, as wanted to be
shown in this work. Even though the use of some particular number of compo-
nents decreases the classiers performance, it is undeniable that it can lead to
much better results.
Additionally, in order to avoid possible smoothing in results when averaging
all quality parameters, Figures 6 and 7 depict the value of every parameter
separately for the cities of Santiago and Pichilemu, respectively. It is noteworthy
that Sn and N P V reach values verging on 90% in both cases. In other words,
the FP rate remains at a very low value which is a very desirable situation due
to the social alarm that FP generally cause. By contrast, Sp and P P V are not
as high as desired but higher enough to be considered satisfactory.

5 Conclusions

The use of PCA has been shown to be useful to improved earthquake prediction
in Chile. By including this step in an existing methodology, the results obtained,
in terms of average accuracy, have been signicantly outperformed. In particular,
articial neural networks, classication trees and random forest algorithms have
been successfully applied to Santiago and Pichilemu, two of the Chilean cities
 65

60

55

Average (%)

50

45

Without PCA
With PCA
40
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Number of principal components

Fig. 4. Average results for Santiago, when PCA varies from 2 to 13 components.

75

70

65
Average (%)

60

55

With PCA
Without PCA
50
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Number of principal components

Fig. 5. Average results for Pichilemu, when PCA varies from 2 to 13 components.

with the highest seismic activity. The results reported in this work suggest that
this methodology could be applied to any other region in the world. As future
work, given the imbalanced nature of data to be classied [7], these techniques are
intended to be applied, especially when considering higher magnitude thresholds
where the imbalance becomes more evident in the classes.

Acknowledgments.

The nancial support from the Junta de Andalucía, under project P12-TIC-1728,
and from the Pablo de Olavide University of Seville, under help APPB813097,
are acknowledged.
 100

90

80

70

60

Value (%) 50

40

30
NPV
20
PPV
Sn
10
Sp
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Number of principal components

Fig. 6. Disaggregated results for Santiago for every quality parameter.

100

90

80

70
Value (%)

60

50

40
NPV
PPV
30 Sn
Sp
20
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Number of principal components

Fig. 7. Disaggregated results for Pichilemu for every quality parameter.

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