Global Cooperation on Climate Change

May 5, 2021 2021, Archives, Int'l Affairs, March 2021 Leave a comment

Global Cooperation on Climate Change

the Anthropocene Epoch, an era of geological time characterized by human impact on Earth’s geology and
ecosystems. As the earth’s temperature rises and natural disasters occur with alarming frequency, the environment is
quickly careening toward a breaking point from which we can never turn back. No matter where you live or how
high your socioeconomic status, climate change can endanger your health, both physical and mental, now and in the
future.
Background
In 1769, James Watt’s version of the steam engine was patented. This innovation led to the widespread use of coal—
a major fossil fuel both then and now—to power industry, agriculture and textile production. As a result, the
productivity of these industries dramatically increased in the period known as the Industrial Revolution.
Studies reveal the beginnings of a sharp increase in CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere, corresponding to this period.
Since then, engines powered by carbon-based fuels have proliferated in cars, planes and ships. These fuels are used
to generate power and manufacture goods, too.
Activities beyond fossil fuel use also generate greenhouse gas emissions. Deforestation is one example, since trees
absorb carbon dioxide. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is higher today than it has been for hundreds of
thousands of years.
The effects are significant and include melting polar ice, rising sea levels, severe storms, droughts and flooding. The
consequences include widespread destruction, particularly for those living in coastal areas and on islands the
extinction of plants and animals, water scarcity, and changing crop and fishery yields. Climate change can contribute
to hunger, refugee flows and more. These consequences will occur unevenly across time and place, but will affect
everyone. There is wide scientific agreement on the urgent need to address climate change, but less political
consensus about how.
Present Situation
Scientists have warned for years of catastrophic environmental consequences if global temperature continues to rise
at the current pace. The Earth’s average temperature has already increased approximately 1°C above preindustrial
levels. In a 2018 special report, the IPCC predicted that without dramatic reductions in carbon emissions, the world
will hit 1.5°C of warming between 2030 and 2052.
The report summarizes many of the effects expected to occur when global temperature reaches that point:
Heat waves. Many regions would suffer more hot days, with about 14 percent of people worldwide being exposed
to periods of severe heat at least once every five years.
Droughts and floods. Regions would be more susceptible to droughts and floods, making farming more difficult,
lowering crop yields, and causing food shortages.
Rising seas. Tens of millions of people live in coastal regions that would be submerged in the coming decades.
Small island nations are particularly vulnerable.
Ocean changes. Up to 90 percent of coral reefs would be wiped out, and oceans would become more acidic. The
world’s fisheries would become far less productive.
Arctic ice thaws. At least once a century, the Arctic would experience a summer with no sea ice, which has not
happened in at least two thousand years. Forty percent of the Arctic’s permafrost would thaw by the end of the
century.
Species loss. More insects, plants and vertebrates would be at risk of extinction.
The consequences will be far worse if the 2°C threshold is reached, scientists say. “We’re headed toward disaster if
we can’t get our warming in check and that we need to do this very quickly,” says Alice C. Hill, CFR senior fellow
for energy and the environment.

Global Cooperation

Our planet is an integrated physical and biological system.

When it comes to the global climate, the nations and people of the world are fully integrated. So, when climate
change is affecting the lives of all people in all countries of the world, it means all countries will have to put in
concerted efforts to combat this menace. Recently, the biggest-ever opinion poll on climate change, conducted by
the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), has found that two-thirds of its 1.2 million respondents think
that it is a “global emergency”.
The UNDP ran the “Peoples’ Climate Vote” in 50 high-, middle- and low-income countries, representing more than
half the world’s people. Experts at Oxford University weighted the replies to reflect the population of each nation.
The survey shows people across the world support climate action and gives politicians a clear mandate to take the
major action needed.
“The voice of the people is clear – they want action on climate change,” said Cassie Flynn, the UNDP’s strategic
adviser on climate change, adding that “If 64% of the world’s people are believing in a climate emergency then it
helps governments to respond to the climate crisis as an emergency. … The key message is that, as governments are
making these high-stakes decisions, the people are with them.”
Global Climate Agreements
1. Montreal Protocol, 1987
Though not intended to tackle climate change, the Montreal Protocol was a historic environmental accord that
became a model for future diplomacy on the issue. Every country in the world eventually ratified the treaty, which
required them to stop producing substances that damage the ozone layer, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). The
protocol succeeded in eliminating nearly 99 percent of these ozone-depleting substances. With the parties to the
Protocol having phased out 98 percent of their ozone-depleting substances, they saved an estimated two million
people from skin cancer every year. In 2016, parties agreed via the Kigali Amendment, which came into force
January 2019, to also reduce their production of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in refrigerators and air-conditioners by
more than 80 percent.
The Montreal Protocol has been successful in reducing ozone-depleting substances and reactive chlorine and
bromine in the stratosphere. As a result, the ozone layer is showing the first signs of recovery. It is expected that the
ozone layer will return to pre-1980s levels by the middle of the century and the Antarctic ozone hole by around
2060s. This is because once released, ozone-depleting substances stay in the atmosphere for many years and
continue to cause damage.
2. UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 1992
 At the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in
1992, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was first negotiated, committing parties to
achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would “prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” Ratified by 197 countries, including the United States, the
landmark accord was the first global treaty to explicitly address climate change. It established an annual forum,
known as the Conference of the Parties, or COP, for international discussions aimed at stabilizing the concentration
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Three years later, in Berlin, at the first annual Conference of the Parties, it
was agreed that the wealthier countries (listed in UNFCCC Annex I) would commit to targets and timetables for
emission- reductions, but not the other 129 (largely developing) countries. This was an attempt to provide for
distributional equity among nations — recognizing that the industrialized countries were responsible for the lion’s
share of accumulated greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and by virtue of their wealth, were more capable of
taking action. Two years after that, in 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was enacted, codifying these objectives with
quantitative targets for Annex I countries only.
UNFCCC was adopted with an objective to “stabilise greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere…”.
Over the past 27 years, GHG concentrations, far from stabilising, have reached record levels. The concentration of
carbon dioxide has increased from 358 parts per million (ppm) in 1994 to 412 ppm in 2018.
Global temperature too has increased from 0.25°C above the pre-industrial era in the early 1990s to 1.10°C in 2018.
All this while the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events have significantly increased. Between 1997 and
2016, extreme weather events claimed more than 0.5 million lives and resulted in economic losses worth US $3.16
trillion worldwide. And, if we take note of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) “Special
Report on 1.5°C”, these numbers would seem minuscule 10 years from now.
Despite brokering a protocol (Kyoto), two agreements (Cancun and Paris) and hundreds of decisions on myriad
climate change issues, UNFCCC has little to show as results. GHGs are today 60 percent above 1994 levels.
Emissions are increasing even in developed countries that had pledged to reduce those. The fact is that UNFCCC
has failed to catalyse change in global energy system over the last 25 years. In 1994, about 80 percent of the global
primary energy supply came from fossil fuels. This figure has remained unchanged even in 2018. The number of
energy-poor people too has remained the same in 1994 and 2018—2.8 billion people continue to use polluting solid
fuels to cook food.
3. Kyoto Protocol, 2005
The Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997 and entered into force in 2005, was the first legally binding climate treaty. It
required developed countries to reduce emissions by an average of 5 percent below 1990 levels, and established a
system to monitor countries’ progress. But, it has had limited effects on global emissions because some countries did
not ratify the Protocol, some Parties did not meet their commitments, and its commitments applied to only a portion
of the global economy. The Treaty split the world into developed (“Annex B”) and developing (“non–Annex B”)
countries, and did not compel developing countries, including major carbon-emitters China and India, to take action.
In subsequent years, those poorer “non–Annex B” countries like China and India grew so fast and burned so much
coal that global emissions soared, swamping the meager cuts rich countries made. The United States signed the
agreement in 1998 but never ratified it as the US Senate, from the outset, refused to ratify the treaty, with senators
complaining that China didn’t have to restrain its pollution at all and that US factories would just move overseas.
George W. Bush formally withdrew from Kyoto in 2001.
The Parties collectively surpassed their collective emission reduction target in the first commitment period, but the
Protocol credited emission-reductions that would have occurred even in its absence. The Kyoto Protocol does not
directly influence the emissions of non-Annex I countries, which have grown rapidly over the past decade.
4. Cancun Agreements
The Cancun Agreements were adopted in 2010 and run in parallel with the Kyoto Protocol’s second commitment
period. Countries put forward nationally determined 2020 emission-reduction targets, or pledges, in the form of
nationally appropriate mitigation actions.
5. Paris Agreement, 2015

The most significant global climate agreement to date, the Paris Agreement requires all countries to set emission-
reduction pledges. Governments set targets, known as nationally determined contributions, with the goals of
preventing the global average temperature from rising 2°C (3.6°F) above preindustrial levels and pursuing efforts to
keep it below 1.5°C (2.7°F). It also aims to reach global net-zero emissions, where the amount of greenhouse gases
emitted equals the amount removed from the atmosphere, in the second half of the century. (This is also known as
being climate neutral or carbon neutral.)
Every five years, countries are supposed to assess their progress toward implementing the agreement through a
process known as the global stocktake; the first is planned for 2023. Countries set their own targets, and there are no
enforcement mechanisms to ensure they meet them.
The United States, the world’s second-largest emitter, was the only country to withdraw from the accord, a move by
former President Donald J. Trump that took effect in November 2020. However, President Joe Biden re-committed
to the agreement on his first day in office, and the United States has rejoined it in February 2021. A few countries
have not formally approved the agreement: Angola, Eritrea, Iran, Iraq, Libya, South Sudan, Turkey, and Yemen.
Conclusion
Climate change is often discussed by environmental campaigners or renewable energy investors as a future threat or
long-term business opportunity. The reality is that climate change is costing lives right now, and is a humanitarian
crisis as well as an environmental one. It’s time we all started treating it as such, to increase the speed of policy
changes in this crucial area.
Whether the Earth becomes one degree hotter means very little to the average person. But what an extra degree
actually means is environmental chaos, lives in danger and families uprooted. The reality is that people are dying at
the hands of climate change right now and yet we hear very little about the climate body count — which is currently
150,000 annually and may double in a decade. Climate change is, therefore, clearly a humanitarian issue, and we
must present it as such so that it has the required impact, and influences policy shifts based on popular concern.
The writer is a member of staff.
 10 Solutions for CLIMATE CHANGE
December 14, 2020 2020, Archives, December 2020, General, Others Leave a comment

10 Solutions for CLIMATE CHANGE 

It has become increasingly clear that climate change is not only real but beginning to bite. Now that much of the
population is finally feeling the urgency, and that the Covid-19 lockdown has put much of our frenetic commerce on
hold, we have space for thinking and discussing ways and means to combat climate change and save our planet.
Here are 10 most pragmatic solutions to this global problem:

1. Abandon Fossil Fuels

The first challenge is eliminating the burning of coal, oil and, eventually, natural gas. This is perhaps the most
daunting challenge as denizens of richer nations who literally eat, wear, work, play and even sleep on the products
made from such fossilized sunshine.
Oil is the lubricant of the global economy; hidden inside such ubiquitous items as plastic and corn, and fundamental
to the transportation of both consumers and goods. Coal is the substrate, supplying roughly half the electricity used
worldwide—a percentage that is likely to grow, according to the International Energy Agency.

So, try to employ alternatives when possible—plant-derived plastics, biodiesel, wind power—and to invest in the
change, be it by divesting from oil stocks or investing in companies practicing carbon capture and storage.

2. Upgrade Infrastructure
Buildings worldwide contribute around one-third of all greenhouse gas emissions, even though investing in thicker
insulation and other cost-effective, temperature-regulating steps can save money in the long run. Electric grids are at
capacity or overloaded, but power demands continue to rise. And bad roads can lower the fuel economy of even the
most efficient vehicle. Investing in new infrastructure, or radically upgrading existing highways and transmission
lines, would help cut greenhouse gas emissions and drive economic growth in developing countries. Although it
takes a lot of cement, a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, to construct new buildings and roads, energy-
efficient buildings and improved cement-making processes (such as using alternative fuels to fire up the kiln) could
reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the developed world and prevent them in the developing world.

3. Move Closer to Work

One way to dramatically curtail transportation fuel needs is to move closer to work, use mass transit, or switch to
walking, cycling or some other mode of transport that does not require anything other than human energy. There is
also the option of working from home and telecommuting several days a week. Cutting down on long-distance travel
would also help cut most notably aeroplane flights which are one of the fastest growing sources of greenhouse gas
emissions and a source that arguably releases such emissions in the worst possible spot (higher in the atmosphere).
Flights are also one of the few sources of globe-warming pollution for which there is not a viable alternative.
Restricting flying to only critical, long-distance trips would help curb such emissions.

4. Consume Less
The easiest way to cut back on greenhouse gas emissions is simply to buy less stuff. Whether by forgoing an
automobile or employing a reusable grocery sack, cutting back on consumption results in fewer fossil fuels being
burned to extract, produce and ship products around the globe. So, think green when making purchases.

5. Be Efficient
A potentially simpler and even bigger impact can be made by doing more with less. Citizens of many developed
countries are profligate wasters of energy, whether by speeding in a gas-guzzling sport-utility vehicle or leaving the
lights on when not in a room. Good driving and good car maintenance can limit the amount of greenhouse gas
emissions from a vehicle.

Similarly, employing more efficient refrigerators, air conditioners and other appliances can cut electric bills. Such
efforts can also be usefully employed at work, whether that means installing more efficient turbines at the power
plant or turning the lights off when you leave the office.

7. Stop Cutting Down Trees

Every year, 33 million acres of forests are cut down. Timber harvesting in the tropics alone contributes 1.5 billion
metric tons of carbon to the atmosphere. That represents 20 percent of human-made greenhouse gas emissions and a
source that could be avoided relatively easily. Improved agricultural practices along with paper recycling and forest
management could quickly eliminate this significant chunk of emissions.

8. Unplug
Televisions, stereo equipment, computers, battery chargers and a host of other gadgets and appliances consume
more energy when seemingly switched off, so unplug them instead. Purchasing energy-efficient gadgets can also
save both energy and money—and thus prevent more greenhouse gas emissions. Swapping old incandescent
lightbulbs for more efficient replacements, such as compact fluorescents would save billions of kilowatt-hours.

9. Insulate
Simply making our homes more efficient can substantially cut the energy needed to heat and cool. Adding
insulation, weather stripping and caulking around your home can cut energy bills by more than 25 percent.

10. Don’t Drink Bottled Water

Landfills already contain more than 2 million tons of plastic bottles. And 1.5 million barrels of oil are used to
manufacture water bottle every year. And those bottles take more than 1,000 years to biodegrade. Yeah, that
reusable water bottle does sound like a good idea.

Conclusion
All may have unintended consequences, making the solution worse than the original problem. But it is clear that at
least some form of geo-engineering will likely be required: capturing carbon dioxide before it is released and storing
it in some fashion, either deep beneath the earth, at the bottom of the ocean or in carbonate minerals. Such carbon
capture and storage is critical to any serious effort to combat climate change.

The writer is a member of staff.

CLIMATE CHANGE EMERGENCY AND GLOBAL

RESPONSE
November 5, 2020 2020, Archives, Exam Pack, November 2020, Others Leave a comment
 CLIMATE CHANGE EMERGENCY
AND GLOBAL RESPONSE
Climate change, in immediate future, will be an inevitable national security threat; less to the developed economies,
much to the developing ones. Although debate on the subject has been overwhelming, yet the implementation of
emission-reduction policies in the developed countries that contribute to the worst of climate change more than what
they have been committed to under the international conventions, especially the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and 2015 Paris
Climate Accord, remains a big question. As a matter of fact, establishment of these conventions demonstrates the
seriousness of countries towards gravity of the issue, but what prevents their response, in true sense, towards dealing
with it is the deluge of present-day economic benefits that outweigh the future implications of climate change.
Climate change is an epoch-making, 21st-century phenomenon that poses a grave threat to all beings living on Earth.
It is generally believed that with the deterioration of climate, the Earth is at stake; on the contrary, however, the fact
is that the planet has undergone huge climatic changes many times before, in some cases, leading even to mass
extinction. But the process of evolution did not stop, it continued. And, after hundreds of thousands of years, human
species did yield the rudimentary, useful sources for the continuation of its survival. Then, the birth of the
civilization took place. Precisely, if the situation of climate change deteriorates into a mass disaster, it is the entirety
of living beings that is in danger.

Now that the human population has greatly increased and that the technology has made huge advances in all realms,
making most of the technology has sped up so as to cater for human desires. A steep decline in the realms of farming
and plantation has been noticed and the process of cutting trees, levels of environmental pollution, dumping of
perilous and stinking waste, production of fossil fuel and transmission of CO2 emissions have soared to new heights,
culminating in climate change which is detrimental to the survival of the living beings. The worse the climate
change, the more likely are chances for human and animal life to endure its deleterious and injurious impacts.

Referring to the staggering loss of Earth’s biodiversity in the face of increasing deforestation and agricultural
expansion, the director general of WWF International, Mr Marco Lambertini, has recently remarked, “In 2016, we
documented a 60 percent decline … [a]ll this is in the blink of an eye compared to the millions of years that many
species have been living on the planet.” Moreover, WWF’s Living Planet Report 2020 has reported that the number
of birds, mammals, fish, reptiles and amphibians has declined by almost seventy percent since 1970.

These statistics portend the dark future of wildlife, and are too alarming to spark a global, concerted response to deal
with the emergency threat posed by contributors to climate change.

In addition, according to a report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Earth has been suffering
record heat waves for some recent years; 2016 being the hottest year, followed by 2019. Emission rate of CO2 has
increased over the years, given the fact that the countries that have been signatory to varied commitments to reduce
it to a sustainable level have not taken serious initiatives to cut down on the production rate of greenhouse gases
(GHGs). Being the largest producer of the GHGs and the biggest consumer of coal, China has not come up with
climate change containment strategies so far; rather it is financing the construction of coal-fired power plants around
the world.

In December 2019, expressing feelings of regret and remorse over the role of world leaders in facing up to climate
change, the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, while talking on the sidelines of the International Climate
Conference in Madrid, said, “The point of no return is no longer over the horizon. It is in sight and hurtling toward
us.”

The threat of global warming in the face of insignificant response of most countries can be seen in exasperation of
the UN chief on various other occasions. A short analysis on his words that the world has scientific knowledge and
technical means to limit global warming, but “what is lacking is political will,” helps us assimilate the fact that the
developed economies are reluctant in combatting the catastrophic threat of climate change.

It is high time the world leaders acted responsibly for collective action towards curbing global warming to achieve
any fruitful results. Slashing GHG emission rate today for the survival of living beings tomorrow has been made
mandatory on the part of many countries. According to a report entitled “Emissions Gap Report 2019,” by the
United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), manmade global emissions increased in 2018 to 55.3 billion metric
tons of carbon dioxide and that they need to go down at a rate of 7.6% each year and total 55% by 2030. Experts
suggest that deadly repercussions caused by global warming in the coming decades are in the offing, if countries
keep on shirking their responsibility to take action in accordance with the recommended statistics for global
emissions reduction.

“We are sleepwalking toward climate catastrophe and need to wake up and take urgent action,” warns Alden Meyer,
an expert on international and domestic climate change policy. As impacts of climate change in the form of extreme
weather patterns, such as floods and heat waves, have already been wreaking havoc on the socioeconomic life of
people and inflicting mammoth losses in men and money on countries; it is yet to be ascertained to what extent they
would exacerbate. Record-breaking rainfall spells and floods in Asia and South America, and experience of
Australia with its driest year can draw huge attention to the future implications of climate change.

Despite the Kyoto Protocol having been a failure as the US couldn’t measure up to its commitment of reducing
emissions rate by 5% less than 1990 levels and decided to withdraw from the Protocol in view of its staggering
economic loss, it is an undeniable fact that it paved the way for research into changing weather patterns and climate
change agents, devising of climate change policies, and concentration of global awareness on cutting down on the
GHG emissions and protecting living beings from climate change calamity that is looming large.

Positive manifestation of it can be seen through the commitment of certain countries that have taken holistic
measures to cope with the looming catastrophe. Norway is the first country to commit to zero deforestation.
Moreover, electricity production of the country is predominantly from renewables; 96 percent from hydropower and
2 percent from wind farms Norway is the leading producer of electric cars. Similarly, Morocco’s National Energy
Strategy that generates 35 percent of its electricity, at present, from renewables calls for the 42 percent generation by
2020, and 52 percent by 2030.

Additionally, Gambia, a small country in West Africa, has launched a large project to restore 10,000 hectares of
mangrove forests and savannas. In South Asia, India invests more in renewables than in fossil fuels. Although it has
committed to a goal of generating 40 percent of its power through renewables by 2030, yet it can be concluded
through its progress that it could reach the target earlier. China, too, has certain accomplishments lately, one such
being the largest solar technology manufacturing facility in the world.

Similarly, Singapore and several other countries have banned the plastic-production industries and discouraged the
use of plastic, burning of which contributes to global warming. Youth’s response in this regard likewise has been
significantly remarkable, as they have been successful, to a greater extent, in attracting world’s attention to its
agonizing and lethal repercussions and—to a little extent—in persuading countries to limit the production of GHGs. 
Seeing the concern and efforts of youth being afraid of hazardous impacts emanating from global warming on
current and future generations should galvanize the world leaders into all-out action against the emergency of
climate change.

 
The writer is a student at

Shah Abdul Latif University (SALU), Khairpur

Climate Change A multifaceted threat to security

of Pakistan
August 7, 2020 2020, Archives, August 2020, Exam Pack Leave a comment
  

Climate Change
 A multifaceted threat to security of
Pakistan
Asad Noonari
Humankind is faced with a looming climate crisis. An immediate, perpetual and common response to cope with this
situation is inevitable. According to a 2018 report by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there are
only 12 years for global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5°C, a threshold beyond which irreversible chain
reaction would occur. Even an increase of half a degree will seriously worsen the risk of floods, droughts, extreme
heat waves and poverty for millions of people. The effects of the climate change are appearing across the world in
the form of fires, melting glaciers, rising sea levels and recurrent hurricanes.
Climate change is an evolving, living and dynamic threat than cannot be ignored. Over the years, this phenomenon
has evolved from an environmental issue to a significant security challenge. Its seriousness can be underlined that it
is being debated in security as well as in development apparatus. In today’s national security arrangements, it has
added new stress and hostile factors which have serious implications. It can act as a catalyst for inauspicious
political, economic and social change, if not engaged effectively.

A recent report by World Meteorological Organization (WMO)—released on the 10 th March 2020—says that several
heat records have been broken in recent years and decades; last year was recorded as the second warmest on record,
with 2016 being the warmest year so far. However, last decade (2011-2020) was the warmest on record.         
In 2019, fierce weather events, some of which were unusual in scale, took place in many regions of the world. The
monsoon experienced rainfall above the long-term mean in India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar. Besides,
flooding claimed some 2,200 lives in the region. Moreover, Australia witnessed its driest year ever, and Central
America, parts of Southern America and Southern Africa received abnormally low rains. Some regions of South
America were also hit by floods in January. In the United States alone, around $20 billion were estimated in total
economic losses.

Hence, there is o denying the fact that climate change has impacted every region of the world, but, the vulnerability
is much higher in the Global South than that in the Global North, including Australia and New Zealand. Most of the
world’s 820 million undernourished people inhabit these two continents. Ironically, the world’s top 10 GHG-
emitting countries account for 62% of the total global greenhouse gases (GHGs)—China being the biggest emitter at
26%, followed by the United States, European Union, and India, with 13%, 7.8% and 6.7%, respectively. It is
perplexing to note that the huge price for this is paid by developing countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh and
Myanmar, which are already facing severe socio-economic problems and are unable to meet basic necessities for
their citizens. Needless to say, it could be a threat to the very existence such countries in coming decades, if not

combated at the earliest.      

In Pakistan’s context, climate change can act as a threat multiplier. Amid decreasing water per capita, burgeoning
population and flattering economy, an addition of climate crisis is likely to make the equation more complex.
Although Pakistan makes a negligible contribution of 0.34% to the GHG emissions, it suffers disproportionately due
to its geographical location.     

The Global Climate Risk Index (CRI) 2020, released by a think-tank Germanwatch on 15 th January 2020, ranked
Pakistan 5th among the countries most vulnerable to climate change. The country suffered economic losses worth
$3.8 billion, lost 9,989 lives and witnessed 152 extreme weather events from 1999 to 2018. It further reported that
Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate change is also increasing. The impacts on the country are already visible in the
form of changing hydrological cycle, changing precipitation pattern, frequency and intensity of heat waves, water-
availability periods, droughts, precipitation events and water-induced natural disaster.
Climate change has made Pakistan’s already volatile matrix more complex, posing direct threat to its security.
National security means safeguarding the interests and well-being of the masses within the geographical boundaries
of a country. Its matrix related to climate change mainly rotates around water security (availability), and it’s the
most elastic component. Besides, floods, decreasing glaciers, drought and sea intrusion are major threats. If not
addressed effectively, it would prove catastrophic for the population as food security and economy will be
jeopardized. Eventually, it will have far-reaching consequences in the shape of mass movements in search of
livelihoods, social unrest and inter-provincial harmony. Following are the main daunting challenges, having
potential to jeopardize the security of the state.

Firstly, the per-capita availability of surface water has decreased— from water-abundant country with 5,260 cubic
metres per year in 1951 to around 1000 cubic metres in 2016—with rapidly growing population, heading towards a
situation of water shortage. This quantity is likely to further decline to around 860 cubic metres by 2025, making the
country’s transition from water-stressed to water-scarce.
The severity of the emerging water crisis has been red-flagged. It can be realized by a letter, dated 25 th February
2015, which the then-chairman of Indus River System Authority (IRSA) wrote to the federal government, asking for
the freeze of country’s entire development budget for the next five years, and to divert it towards the construction of
major water reservoirs on a war footing, since agriculture was the backbone of the country. The total availability of
water to the country is 145 MAF, average flow in the Indus River annually, and provides water for 77% of the
population, while the existing live storage capacity is 14.10MAF, i.e. 9.7% only. However, according to a Dutch
study, about 60% of Indus waters are contributed by Himalayan melts, and there is a possibility of an 8.4% decrease
in upstream water flows in the Indus as a result of climate change by 2050. Needless to say, declining water
availability is one of the severest security challenges, just like terrorism and extremism that confront Pakistan. It
could translate into political instability and security risk.                   
Secondly, being an agrarian economy, with about 60% of the country’s total population in rural areas is linked to
agricultural activities directly or indirectly, the implications are even grimmer. Despite the declining share in GDP
to 20%, it still remains the backbone of the country’s economy. In addition, it absorbs 43.7% of the country’s labour
force. This sector also provides more than 70% of the raw material for manufactured exports. The IMF has already
warned that since agriculture depends on water, any shortage of it could lead to food insecurity, raised productions
costs and contracted productivity growth.

Thirdly, a combination of sea intrusion and erosion has inundated several Indus delta islands; mainly, in Badin,
Thatta and Sajwal districts of Sindh, in the last few decades. It has also compelled local communities to migrate to
nearby districts or Karachi, the economic hub of the country. As many as 80% of the five million people, which
once lived along the banks of the Indus delta earning their livelihoods through farming and fishing, have migrated.

Moreover, due to rising sea levels, worsening of ecosystem at delta and decreasing river flow into the Arabian Sea,
have miserably affected the aquatic creatures and mangroves. Notably, mangroves act as first line of defence against
cyclones and tsunamis. However, its forest has been decreased from 400,000 hectares in 1945 to 70,000 in 2016.

Fourthly and finally, climate change has exposed the country’s population to fierce health-related challenges.
Unfortunately, Covid-19 pandemic has proved fatal to developing countries economically because they do not have
enough fiscal space to bear the burden of long-term lockdowns. Although there is no evidence suggesting that the
pandemic was caused by global warming, yet it would be too early to rule out the possibility that it was not ignited
by climate change. Recurrent erupting of such pandemics could destabilize the country which is already grappling
with various challenges.

It is worth mentioning here that scientific community has listed several broad areas in which climate change will
affect health: temperature-related deaths and illness, air quality, vector-borne and viral diseases, water-related
illnesses and food safety and nutrition. Various WHO studies have already predicted climate-induced epidemics and
pandemics.
It is truth that Pakistan is suffering from “climate injustice. While the developed countries have huge contributions
to damaging the climate, the developing ones are major sufferers. Nevertheless, taking into account the intensity of
the challenge and gravity of the matter, unusual decisions have to be taken without delay. Pakistan’s Water Policy
was adopted in 2018 after much consideration. As usual, a bigger question still remains on its implementation and
execution, especially with respect to provincial coordination.     

So far there are no indications that temperature increase will be contained between 1°C and 2°C. Commitments
made under Paris Climate Accord of 2015 are not legally binding. Therefore, the accord could not be relied as an
international tool for assuring compliance.

It manifests that each country will have to use available local resources, capacities and technologies to build
adaptive resilience in order to deal the climate crisis. It’s a decisive time for Pakistan’s public managers and
policymakers to take unusual and timely decisions.

Security Consequences of Climate Change A look

at global and national dimensions
June 13, 2020 2020, Archives, June 2020, Pak Affairs Leave a comment
 Security Consequences of Climate
Change
A look at global and national
dimensions
Aftab H. Wahla
Throughout the eons, climate change has been an integral part of our atmospheric conditions, but the pace at which
it affected our planet was slow and imperceptible and it offered ample time for adaptation to the flora and fauna of
the Earth. However, the current situation is altogether different. The rate of change in global atmosphere and
ecology is so abrupt and sudden today that 7.6 billion humans, as well as all other species, find it harder to adapt to
the precipitously changing weather patterns, increasingly erratic rainfall and unprecedentedly-rising global
temperature. Though climate change is causing grim consequences for humanity, e.g. increasing temperatures,
melting glaciers, desertification, weather change, disturbance in atmospheric circulation and ocean currents, rising
sea level and seawater intrusion, its most serious impact that is still underreported, unnoticed and underestimated
will be on global peace and security.
Before we dwell upon the impact of climate change on security, it seems pertinent to look at what national security
is from the perspective of International Relations.

Harold Brown, US Secretary of Defense from 1977 to 1981 in the Carter administration, describes national security
as “the ability to preserve the nation’s physical integrity and territory; to maintain its economic relations with the
rest of the world on reasonable terms; to preserve its nature, institution, and governance from disruption from
outside; and to control its borders.” Succinctly speaking, national security is the protection of a state’s sovereignty
and territorial integrity as well as institutional capacity of safeguarding its subjects from various military and non-
military threats like military attacks; terrorism; crime control; economic, human, energy, food and cyber insecurity.
Global security or international security is the mutual survival and safety of humans on the face of the Earth as a
result of multilateral, bilateral or unilateral endeavours on the part of the United Nations and its member states. Both
international security and national security of climatically-vulnerable countries are facing serious challenges from
the precipitous changes being brought about through anthropological activities.

Though the world is slow to recognize the grave risks associated with climate change, there is now a growing
realization in major capitals and international organizations that this phenomenon can act as an accelerant to
instability and a catalyst to conflagrate the conflicts. It attempts to compound the existing security and economic
irritants and can potentially endanger the security of humans as well as that of ecosystems, societies, economies and
governing institutions. In a study published in 2007, David D. Zhang et al. found that long-term fluctuation of war
frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. They also found that a cooler period
impacted agriculture production that, in return, caused serious social issues like price inflation, war, famines and
population decline. Moreover, in its Quadrennial Defense Review 2014, Pentagon concluded that the various
impacts created by climate change are “threat multipliers” that will exacerbate stresses abroad like poverty,
environmental degradation and political instability. “The pressures caused by climate change will influence resource
competition while placing additional burdens on economies, societies, and governance institutions around the world.
These effects are threat multipliers that will aggravate stressors abroad such as poverty, environmental degradation,
political instability, and social tensions – conditions that can enable terrorist activity and other forms of violence,” it
said.  These assessments make it vividly clear that unaddressed climate change would create serious consequences

and implications for global peace and security.

A brief discussion has been made in following paragraphs on various factors linked with climate change that pose
serious threats to international security. 

First of all, there is a well-established link between climate change and water insecurity. Rising temperature, glacial
meltdown and changing rainfall patterns will invariably impact water security across the globe. There is a strong
likelihood that climate change-driven water insecurity will cause sub-national and trans-national conflicts. These
conflicts can further be compounded by pre-existing social issues like poverty, national disintegration, social
tensions, etc. Globally, the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia are three regions that are hotspots for water
insecurity-linked threats. The poor trans-national coordination, dilapidated institutional arrangements, poor
leadership and unplanned demand-and-supply mechanism are making these regions extremely vulnerable to active
hostilities and standoffs. The gravity of the situation can be gauged from the fact that out of seven river basins in
these regions, five have been termed as awfully inadequate and limited to avoid and manage future crises. The Nile,
Euphrates-Tigris and Indus basin systems are worth mentioning here as they are facing serious issues due to climate
change-driven fluctuations and uncertainties.

Weaponization of water is another closely linked issue. Various countries and terrorist outfits are using threats
emanating from water insecurity as means to achieve their tactical, strategic and coercive ends. For instance, ISIS
attempted to use water as strategic and tactical weapon when it threatened to destroy Mosul Dam to stop the
advancement of Iraqi Army. India’s Hindu nationalist prime minister, Narenda Modi, has frequently threatened to
stop the flow of water of western rivers into Pakistan to prevent the ‘infiltration of militants’ in Occupied Jammu
and Kashmir. Al-Shabab, the terrorist organization in East Africa, cut off water supplies to some localities in
Somalia to show its coercive power. Since water is integral for food and energy security, continued and unaddressed
climate change-caused water scarcity poses grave threats to these regions which are already volatile and restive due
to various politico-strategic conflicts.

The Northwest Passage is one such place that best illustrates how change in natural environment is inevitably linked
with geostrategic competition. This passage can offer shorter Euro-Asia marine route but the deep ice has long
prevented the exploitation of this passage as per its true potential. Now climate change is impacting it. The average
temperature has been hovering 1.35 degree Fahrenheit since the start of the 20 th century. This mercurial rise is
causing ice-meltdown at an unprecedented rate. As per various reports, the ice is melting at 13.5% per decade. In
2018, the minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was 25% below the 30-year average from 1980 to

2010. 
This continued ice-melt in the Northwest Passage will open new maritime routes and trade opportunities. The US
Geological Survey has estimated that 30% of the world’s undiscovered natural gas and 13% of undiscovered oil can
possibly be located in Arctic Circle and Northern waters. The likelihood of untapped opportunities of oil, gas and
mineral exploration in this region can cause disputes over territorial claims and sea route. The continued lingering of
this dispute, coupled with other unresolved political conflicts, can act as an agent of destabilization and can prove a
serious threat to global peace and security. There are already indications that Russia is deploying its military assets
here and the United States is contemplating counteraction. Obviously, this is worrisome development for
international stability.

Climate change-induced population displacement and climate refugees make another burning issue that is posing
grave threats to international peace and security. Different climate scenarios estimate that 150-200 million people
worldwide will face displacement due to rise in sea level, sea surge, sea intrusion, heat waves and prolonged
droughts. This situation becomes grimmer when we find that there is no international treaty or convention covering
the rights of climate refugees. As EU Refugee Crisis 2015 has made it clear that influx of a massive number of
immigrants causes serious stress on the humanitarian and economic capabilities of destination countries, the looming
threat of climate refugees has potential to trigger fractures among the international community. Competition over
scarce resource would lead towards social strife, political instability, civil war and armed conflicts among countries.
The climate displacement is more serious in the sense that the displacement will likely be permanent as losses
brought on by floods, sea intrusion, surge in heat waves and sea storms have long-term socioeconomic ramifications
and affected population will never be able to return to the pre-disaster level. Therefore, climate refugees will
continue to put a perpetual strain on the destination countries, thereby creating a constant source of conflict among

the countries.   
Now we look at what climate change-induced security threats are evolving for Pakistan. It is worth discussing these
threats as Pakistan’s security policymakers have shown little realization to the security implications of climate
change and have disproportionately mobilized state resources to neutralize the conventional threats to the country’s
national security.

First and foremost, downstream status of Pakistan is a threat to its security. Pakistan’s food and energy security is
contingent on the uninterrupted and uninterruptible supply of water from upstream India. Both India and Pakistan
are facing acute water shortage due to ineffective agriculture practices, poor management of water resources and
burgeoning populations. This regional water insecurity has further been compounded by the rise of Hindu-nationalist
and fascist Narendra Modi to power in New Delhi. His populist approach towards Pakistan vis-à-vis downstream
water of Western rivers has become one of the most serious threats to national security of Pakistan. In the aftermath
of the Uri attack back in 2016, Modi attempted to soothe the popular resentments against Pakistan and warned that
blood and water cannot flow together, thereby threatening a closure of waters flowing downstream to Pakistan. On
its part, Pakistan responded promptly with Sartaj Aziz, then PM Foreign Policy Advisor, giving the policy statement
that any violation of Indus Waters Treaty by India would be considered “an act of war”. This episode makes it clear
that volatile bilateral Indo-Pak ties can easily spiral out of control and climate change-driven water insecurity can
play a decisive role in the derailment of relationships. Another worrisome aspect of this threat is that the Indus
Waters Treaty of 1960, an institutional mechanism to amicably resolve the dispute, did not anticipate climate change
at that time, ergo no clause covering climate change-caused disruption in the supply of water. This worsening per
head availability, coupled with other bilateral irritants, has become one of the most serious threat multipliers for

peace and security of South Asia.

Prolonged droughts, super floods and famines can cause severe unrest. The situation gets worse in the presence of
unresolved political issues. The 2003 Darfur Civil War in Sudan that resulted in more than 100,000 fatalities and
displacement of over 300,000 people was in part triggered by prolonged drought that had caused fatal competition
over scarce resources. Syria is another example where climate change-precipitated, historically-worst drought
caused migration, civil unrest and ultimately armed conflict. Pakistan also sits on the time bomb of national
disintegration due to various factors; water distribution being the most important of them. Population explosion,
industrial development, unplanned urbanization, absence of horizontal and vertical collaboration, incoherent
implementation of ecological policies, inability to construct any major water reservoir and ineffective supply and
demand management have made Water Apportionment Accord of 1991 awfully obsolete and inadequate to resolve
inter-provincial water disputes. In addition, the Accord does not include any water-distribution mechanism if there is
any major disruption in water availability owing to emergencies. It is now increasingly becoming evident that
climate change is impacting the normal flow of water and inability of the 1991 Accord to proactively tackle this
issue is bound to create serious politico-economic ramifications that will cause serious threat to the internal security
of Pakistan.

Population displacement is another issue that can easily create an insurmountable challenge for internal security of
Pakistan. As per various climate models, the thermal threshold of major staple crops like wheat and rice can shift
towards the northern areas depending upon the rise in temperature. If temperature rises by 3 to 4 degree Celsius by
the end of the ongoing century, the entire lower Sindh may be left unsuitable for wheat cultivation. Obviously, the
unsuitability of the lands for staple food would cause population displacement and migration to the urban centres.
Thus, already overcrowded cities will find it even harder to cope with the challenges of ethnic tensions,
ghettoization of communities, crime infestation and political instability. The climate change-driven water shortage
would further worsen the situation and there will always be serious threats of outbreak of gang wars and civil strife
in the major urban centres of Pakistan, thereby putting internal security under great stress.

The ongoing crisis of locust infestation is another example that illustrates the capability of climate change to disrupt
the food supplies. The increased frequency of cyclones in Indian Ocean—eight cyclones in 2019 alone—and longer-
than-normal monsoon last year helped the three generations of locusts in Pakistan and Iran. Now this threat is set to
devastate the Kharif and Rabi crops of Pakistan. Losses to agriculture could reach Rs. 353 billion for Rabi crops and
Rs.464 billions for Kharif crops. Most worryingly, the locust crisis is set to further cripple the surveillance and
control response of the government that is already fighting the once-in-a-century medico-economic crisis of Covid-
19.
Given the gravity of the situation, drastic changes at global and national levels have become a pressing urgency.
Globally, the very domain of the UN Security Council must be broadened. Article 39 of the UN Charter that deals
with jurisdiction of UNSC to act in case of any threat to peace, breach of peace or act of aggression must also cover
climate change-driven security threats in addition to the conventional military aggressions. The diplomatic
squabbling and bickering witnessed during COP25 has made it clear that voluntary international climate agreements
would not help humanity contain mercurial rise; these agreements must be binding in nature and any breach should
also be the domain of the International Court of Justice. In addition, the institutional jurisdiction of International
Criminal Court should also be expanded to include climate aggression along with ethnic cleansing, genocide, crimes
against humanity and war crimes. Nationally, a paradigm shift is required in strategic thinking of military
establishment. The National Security Committee must also consider the security implications of climate change in
its policymaking and execution and our military top brass should also deliberate it in its Corps Commanders
Meetings to devise coordinated civil-military response to this security threat. 

The traditional understanding of national and global security has undergone fundamental transformation. The
narrow definition of protecting sovereignty and territorial integrity has become obsolete owing to emergence of a lot
of non-conventional security threats that, if left unaddressed and unresolved, can prove as devastating as military
aggression or terrorism. Now it has become amply evident that management of national security is no longer the
exclusive domains of military or other law-enforcement agencies; it warrants a multidisciplinary, holistic approach
to remove the proverbial sword of Damocles in order to give a healthy, hospitable, peaceful and secure environment
with fully functional state institutions to the next generations. One of the major takeaways of Covid-19 is that we
cannot defeat nature; if we go on with our ecologically disturbing activities, nature has deadliest weapons in its
arsenal to teach us a lesson. We must learn the art of peaceful coexistence with the nature, which is strict adherence
to climate-friendly socio-economic policies and activities. 

CLIMATE CHANGE
May 13, 2020 2020, April 2020, Archives, May 2020, Pak Affairs Leave a comment
CLIMATE CHANGE
 Causes, effects, evidence and how to
deal with it
Sajad Ali Jatoi
Climate means average weather pattern of a particular area over a long period of time – at least thirty years, while
Climate change refers to the long-term shift in global average weather patterns i.e. changes in temperature,
precipitation and rainfall patterns. These changes in climate are directly or indirectly induced by human activities
such as expansion of greenhouse gas emissions, land use, deforestation and degradation of forests. The changes are
transpiring irrespective of any region, country or continent and will have global impacts. Both developing and
developed countries are vulnerable to the wide-ranging consequences of Climate change. Everyone in the world is
going to be affected by it. Ban Ki-moon, who served as the eighth secretary general of the United Nations, once
talking about the Climate change said: “Climate change does not respect national borders”.
 Most of the people confuse climate change with global warming and assume that both are the same. In fact, global
warming constitutes just one aspect of climate change, as global warming means rise in global average temperature,
whereas climate change entails global warming, air pollution and other such things.

Despite the evidence and explanations provided through scientific researches, there are people who are of the
opinion that Climate change is not real and term it fake. Their refusal to accept it is nothing but the denial of the
stark fact. There have been numerous things observed which allay suspicion about climate change. More
prominently, rise in global average temperature also called global warming confirms this assumption. NASA,
showing the evidence for Climate change, posted to its official website as: “The planet’s average surface
temperature has risen about 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (0.9 degree Celsius) since the late 19th century”. In addition to
it, global warming has caused oceans to absorb the heat—coming in the form of sunlight. Data from various
researches show that since 1969, surface of oceans, up to 700 metres deep have warmed up about 0.4 degrees
Fahrenheit.
Moreover global sea level rise attests to the fact that the climate is going through changes. Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) a United Nations body for assessing research on Climate change, in its fifth assessment
report shows that global mean sea level has risen about 0.19 metres. Besides, ocean acidification, glacial retreat and
decreased snow cover are the other things which substantiate the evidence for Climate change. Oceans have
increased in acidity due to the increased uptake of CO2. IPCC’s fifth assessment report says “pH of ocean surface
water has decreased by 0.1 (high confidence), corresponding to 26% increase in acidity”.

         All of the observed changes are anthropogenic—human-induced. The fundamental things which are driving
Climate change is the presence of greenhouse gases and aerosols in Earth’s atmosphere. Aerosols are tiny particles
floating in the atmosphere which are released through both natural and anthropogenic processes. Aerosols can be
dust particles, minute droplets and tiny bits of carbon and other such things. They collect in the atmosphere through
natural and human sources. Dust, for example, comes from dry lands, deserts and dried-out river banks. Carbon
particles are shot into the atmosphere when volcanoes erupt explosively. Anthropogenic activities contribute to the
atmospheric aerosol amount in many ways. For instance, fossil fuel burning, besides greenhouse gases, produces
carbonaceous particles. Major Man-made aerosols—sulfate—are released into the atmosphere when tropical forests,
coal, etc are burned. Agriculture produces dust—when farmers plough the fields. Scientists are sure that their
amount has increased since the industrial revolution began. Aerosols have influence on climate. Increase in their
amount can either cool or warm up the planet. They alter the whole energy equilibrium of the Earth as they float in
the atmosphere. In addition, they pollute air and do harm to ozone layer. Greenhouse gases are released into the
atmosphere from fossil fuel burning, land use, irrigated agriculture, animal husbandry, oil extraction and
deforestation. All of these activities are anthropogenic and add to the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Presence of
greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere is responsible for its suitability for life. If these gases had not been present,
it would not have been possible for any organism to live on Earth. Like decrease, extreme increase in their amount is
harmful for life, because this leads to greenhouse effect. Greenhouse effect is a natural process that warms the
surface of the Earth.  The Earth gets its energy from the Sun.
when sunlight reaches Earth some of it is reflected back into space and the rest is absorbed by the land and oceans.
The absorbed heat is radiated back into space, but greenhouse gases trap it and reradiate it towards Earth, thereby
causing it to warm up. As greenhouse gases are collecting in the atmosphere, the greenhouse effect is increasing and
bringing about global warming. Greenhouse gases comprise CO2, methane, Nitrous oxide, water vapours and
chlorofluorocarbons. Carbon dioxide, the most long-lived forcing of Climate change, is released into the atmosphere
mostly because of fossil fuel burning —coal and oil.  It is a small component of the atmosphere, as it makes less
than 0.5% of the total atmospheric gases, but it is of great significance. Increase in its amount is going to be
catastrophic for all life on Earth. Researches show that its concentration has increased since the Industrial revolution
began. NASA says that the concentration of CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere is currently at nearly 414 parts per million
(ppm) and rising. This represents a 48 percent increase since the Industrial revolution began, when the concentration
was near 280 ppm. Methane also called natural gas, is a hydrocarbon gas and is released through both natural and
anthropogenic ways; these include agriculture, decomposition of wastes in landfills and manure management. In
agriculture, rice cultivation is responsible for methane release.  Nitrous oxide is produced from both natural and
human sources and its concentration has increased by 16% since the beginning of Industrial revolution.
Anthropogenic sources such as agriculture and combustion of biomass and fossil fuels are responsible for its
emissions and as well as natural sources like volcanoes.
    Climate change will affect every aspect of life, including agriculture, water resources, forests, biodiversity, sea
level, coastal areas and human health. But the prominent and challenging effect of it is the depletion of ozone layer.
Ozone layer protects life from Ultra violet rays, otherwise which could destroy it. Increase in atmospheric CFCs is
triggering ozone depletion. When ultra violet rays from the Sun hit CFCs in the stratosphere, carbon-chlorine bonds
break, resulting in free chlorine atoms. The chlorine atoms react with ozone molecule (O3) which leads to the

destruction of ozone layer.

      In agriculture, it is likely that food growing regions change in the future. Regions where crops, such as rice, do
not grow because of cold climate will become cultivable due to global warming and vice versa. Moreover, crop
yields would also be affected — pests, crop diseases and demands for irrigation would pose a challenge for
agriculture. Scientists have predicted that crop yields would decrease in the coming times. Climate change would
also disrupt forest economy and cause modifications in natural forests. Some of them might disappear owing to
increasing bushfires from drying and loss of humidity. Forests act both as a cause and solution for climate change.
Changes in their location and disappearance would affect biodiversity. Some of the species that inhibit tropical
forests run the risk of extinction. Further, increase in temperature and air pollution will have bearings on water
resources. It may lead to either drought or flooding, both of which are not in the interests of human beings. Water
quality is likely to be affected as well. Besides the effects mentioned, coastal areas are on the line as sea levels are
rising. This effect would disrupt life on a large scale, as most of the metropolitan cities of the world lie around
coastal regions.

     All of the mentioned impacts, thus far, will have negative

implications for human life. Rise in temperature, disruption in agriculture, changes in water resources,
disappearance of forests, immersion of coastal areas and other factors will stimulate migration and as well as affect
food security, human health and global economy. People will migrate to areas where they can find sustenance.
Migration will breed the problems of employment and housing. Subsequently, these problems will lead to crimes —
thefts, robberies and killing. In the future, it might be impossible for agriculture to meet the demands of people, for
crop yield is declining and contrary to this, human population is rising. Human health will be affected; global
warming will precipitate heat waves, thereby leading to increase in mortality. Certain diseases, such as vector-borne
Malaria and Dengue will escalate and spread to temperate areas. Besides this, climate change poses a big threat to
global economy.
    There are two ways to tackle climate change: mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation – reducing climate change –
entails reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and promoting renewable energy sources.
This objective can be achieved by reducing the sources that emit heat-trapping gases and enhancing the sinks that
accumulate these gases. In order to reduce the sources that emit them, we need to cut fossil fuel burning by limiting
the usage of transportation, heat and electricity in our daily lives. Every single person in the world has a party to
play. We as an individual should prefer to use public transport instead of driving our own cars, and should use them
occasionally, if necessary. We should also avoid the unnecessary use of electrical appliances such as light bulbs. On
the surface, this might seem ridiculous and may not make sense to an ordinary man. It is likely that he/she has a
question on his/her mind that how can this stop the unavoidable climate change. In fact, we are all contributing to it
as an individual. Though, this effort cannot stop climate change altogether, it will certainly slow down it. We can
also control the amounts of greenhouse emissions by promoting sinks – afforestation, as trees play a pivotal role in
controlling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Mangrove trees, for example, are one of the best sinks
to store carbon. They can store it four times more than rainforest trees do. It is estimated that 50 mangrove trees can
absorb about 1 metric ton of carbon dioxide.  Furthermore, promotion of renewable energy sources will be helpful in
mitigating climate change, for it is clean and does not involve combustion or anything like that. It is derived from
natural sources, for example solar energy is generated from the sunlight; wind energy from wind and hydropower
from water. After mitigation, adaptation is another thing which can assist in curbing climate change. By adaptation I
refer to the anticipation of adverse effects of climate change and adjusting to expected climate by taking practical
actions. We need to observe the changes that have taken place; plan things and take action accordingly. We need to
build defense system against natural disasters. We should use scarce water resources more efficiently and raise the
dykes of rivers which might overflow because of glaciers melting at faster rates. In the end, raising general
awareness about the implications of climate change will also be helpful and it is a responsibility of everyone who is
well aware of it to further this noble cause among the masses about the impacts of climate change. It is a battle,
which we will not be able to win, if the ordinary people stay away from it.

CONCLUSION:
Climate change implies changes in global weather patterns—changes in temperature, precipitation and rainfall
patterns. These changes are happening regardless of region, community, country or continent and are likely to affect
every human being living on this planet. In the last fifty years some of the changes as forecast by earlier scientists,
have started to take place, which can be used as a proof that climate changes is real. The observed changes include
rise in global temperature i.e. global warming, global mean sea level rise, shrinking ice sheets and glacial retreat to
name but a few. The changes will increase in severity in the recent future and will have impacts on life.  They pose
many threats to it and can disrupt it terribly. The major threats, which climate change is likely to bring about are:
extinction of certain species, depletion of ozone layer, removal of and modifications in the locations of tropical
forests, decrease in yields in agriculture sector and for humans, food security and human health are on the line. The
cardinal cause of these changes as scientists believe, are human beings themselves. Humans increased greenhouse
gas emissions and amount of aerosols in the atmosphere. Increase in their amount is precipitating climate change.
Therefore, in order to tackle climate change we need to cut emissions of greenhouse gases; promote renewable
energy sources and take other preventive measures. Switching from non-renewable energy sources to renewable
ones is the only thing which can help us halt climate change. For this purpose, there have been so many agencies
working on it at regional, national and international level, but they will not be effective, if we do not cooperate and
play our part. Therefore, it is high time we did something to halt it and secure the future of coming generations; pass
on to them an intact and habitable world.

Water, Nature and Climate Change

March 14, 2020 2020, Archives, General, March 2020 Leave a comment
 water, nature and climate change
Water can be part of climate change and nature conservation: better water management in agriculture, which
accounts for about 70 percent of all water use, is a key component of effective climate change reduction and
 adaptation strategies to achieve local and global environmental security, especially in regions where water scarcity
and climatic changes are severe. The South Asian region has high-altitude mountainous terrains, sub-mountainous
tracts, large flood-plains, with a network of rivers, streams and canals and link canals. The region accounts for 58
percent of the total irrigation potential of Southern and East Asia and has best—but poorly managed—irrigation
network in the world.
South Asia is an agricultural region. It has the distinction of having the largest contiguous gravity flow irrigation
system in the world. About 20 percent irrigation water waste is in seepage/evaporation which could be used to
secure nature and minimize the impact of climate change on the region. Just take the province of Punjab as a pilot
project for this purpose. Punjab has 19 barrages, 12 inter-river link canals and 43 independent irrigation canals with
a total length of the main canals at 64000 km2 where we can plant fruit-bearing trees, and the eco-friendly ones as
well (18-20 feet apart) along the runway. By doing so, we can save up to 20 percent of irrigation water, and this
would also help to reduce the air pollution.

Some suggestions on World Water Day

On March 22, the world will celebrate World Water Day. This year, the theme of this international
observance is: “Water, Nature and Climate Change.” As the global population increases, so does the demand
for water, meeting which, in many ways, depletes natural resources and pollutes the environment as well. In
the face of changing climatic conditions worldwide, this issue highlights the urgent need to improve access to
sustainable water supply. Water scarcity is a severe yet growing problem. For some part of each year, nearly
71 percent of the world’s population (around 4.3 billion people), experience moderate to severe water

scarcity. 
The governments must:

 Direct all efforts to improving livelihoods and agricultural productivity, reducing waste and the demand for
resource-intensive water, and improving governance in the WASAs of various cities.

 Promote local-level efforts to empower people; creating sustainable rural livelihoods is also highly
important.

 Provide for continuous education on water conservation for farmers through mass media, short courses, and
exchange programmes with other South Asian states.

 Support its Ministry of Climate Change to provide scholarships to students who want to conduct research
on issues related to water and environment.
 Prioritize research on high-value crops, livestock, fisheries, forest conservation, post-harvest handling,
irrigation water management and management of soil problems.

 Ensure adequate and timely availability of water for farming as it will lead to enhanced food production,
ergo availability.

 Incorporate climate change adaptation into the National Climate Policy. Water security should be the top
priority in the climate change scenario.

 Assess issues, goals and strategies across the Indus basin and establish joint scenarios, modelling and risk
assessments, a Joint Experts Group from all riparian countries should be formed

 Put in place valid institutional structures and implement integrated management of the water resources as
these are the key components for trans-boundary cooperation on climate change

 Make it mandatory for every person to plant a tree, save water for the preservation of nature and its
resources.

The writer is a member of Anti-Drug Task Force Punjab Mianmajid582@gmail.com

How to Combat Climate Change in Pakistan

Pakistan has been continuously ranked among the most affected countries by climate change. Our people in different
parts of the country are already getting adversely affected by climate impacts, which include flash floods due to
glacial melt, increased heatwaves, water scarcity, rising sea levels, food shortages and displacement. The worst part
is that these impacts are only going to get worse. In such a scenario, here are some tips for the government to
combat this menace:

What the government should do

1. Undertake urgent reforestation and afforestation programmes on mountain slopes. The Billion-tree
Tsunami campaign is a good start but needs to be scaled up in the long-term. The communities and the general
public also need to be engaged in mass plantation drives across the country.
2. Devise and implement a waste management strategy for mountainous areas. Since mountain communities
have nowhere to dispose of their waste, they end up either throwing it in the rivers, burning the waste in open air,
which contributes to black carbon deposition on glaciers and accelerates their melting, or burying it underground
which resurfaces in the event of a natural disaster and adds to existing risks.
3. Ban diesel vehicles in the mountains. Tourists visiting the scenic mountains in the north opt for using diesel
(the most inefficient fuel) in their four-wheelers. The particulate matter emitted by the incomplete burning of
fuels at such high altitudes directly contributes to the rapid melting of glaciers, thereby accelerating climate
change.
4. Switch to renewable energy sources. We have massive potential for solar energy in Thar and hydropower in
the north which can provide clean, cost-effective and uninterrupted energy.
5. Deploy a proactive approach rather than a reactionary one. We usually react to a disaster once it has
happened, instead of preparing ourselves beforehand.
6. Make climate change a priority in the development and political agenda. Climate change will influence
every area of human and economic development and needs to be taken into account at every level.
7. The above-mentioned steps are urgently required, but it is also important to recognise that the onus for
change is not completely on the government. We, as aware citizens, need to demand action on these issues and
work closely with governmental and non-governmental institutions to ensure that these measures get
implemented.

Climate Change and National Security

November 6, 2019 2019, Archives, November 2019, Pak Affairs Leave a comment

Climate Change and National

Security
A Looming Threat for Pakistan?
Mehtab Ali Bhatti
With far-reaching consequences like food scarcity, climate change is a major security challenge and countries like
Pakistan. It is indeed a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing pressures as well as presenting new challenges to our
national security. With Pakistan ranked seventh in the list of countries who are at risk from climate change, some
lawmakers have called for declaring climate change a ‘national security issue’ for its devastating effects.
Introduction
Climate change is a hot issue nowadays as it drastically impacts the world at various scales. Basically, climate
change is an erratic change in weather patterns, oceans and topography due to sun’s radiation, volcanoes, tsunamis
and manmade appliances. However, it is a lesser acknowledged fact that climate change impacts the security of the
world; hence national security of states. It may threaten public welfare, political and economic stability, technology,
ecosystem and social system of a country as it engenders issues like political instability, poverty, environment
deterioration and social problems. According to former US President, Barack H. Obama, “Climate change is no
longer some far-off problem; it is happening here, it is happening now.”

In case of Pakistan, if climate change is not adequately addressed, there would be ample chances of security
implications. According to Climate Risk Index (CRI) report of 2016, Pakistan is the 7th most vulnerable country to
the climate change and global warming. From 1997 to 2016, the country experienced 141 disastrous weather events,
 i.e. floods, storms, cyclones, heat waves and many others — two major catastrophic events were 2005 earthquake
and 2010 super floods which displaced thousands of families and damaged properties worth billions. Moreover, due
to climate change, Pakistan will have to face far-reaching repercussions, e.g. food shortage, water scarcity, less
agricultural production, dwindling economy, humanitarian crises, increasing unemployment, health issues, natural
disasters, ecosystem deterioration, political instability and increase in mass migration.

Implications of Climate Change on Pakistan

Climatic change is not merely a sectoral issue; it is a multi-dimensional one. Pakistan is facing various critical issues
in social, economic, political and geographical domains and these are affecting the country’s national security. Thus,
the situation warrants prudent policymaking and its complete execution in all sectors so as to curb the rising issue of
climate change and global warming. Here are some of the implications that Pakistan may have in various sectors:

Economy
1. Deteriorating agriculture sector
“Erratic weather patterns and climate change have emerged as the biggest environmental challenges that are
affecting almost all the sectors of economy particularly water resources, energy, health, biodiversity with a major
impact on agricultural productivity. In economic sector, climate change presents dire threat for Pakistan due to the
imminent water scarcity and less production of agriculture. Climate change also poses a serious challenge to
Pakistan’s agriculture and threatens country’s water availability and food security. Pakistan’s majority of population
is dependent on agriculture and this sector is also a major forex-earner. In addition, any volumetric damage to this
sector would be challenge for Pakistan’s economy and trade balance, which, in turn, would be detrimental to
national economy.

Approximately 67% of Pakistanis are involved in agriculture sector. More than 50% of the country’s land is affected
due to erratic climate patterns. In 1949, agriculture was the supreme sector of Pakistan’s economy as it was
responsible for 53% of the GDP. In 1980, the share decreased to 31% and it accounts for only 21% of the GDP.
Some research reports have blamed climate change as the major reason behind this situation.

1. Less public sector spending

 Economy is the most important pillar of a country’s development and stability, but climate change has ever been in
negative relationship with economy. In case of Pakistan, this phenomenon has impacted almost all sectors of
economy. According to noted American economist William Nordhaus, a poor country like Pakistan that has low
GDP per capita means dearth of absolute taxation which leads to bad governance and increase in budget deficit.
Furthermore, low taxation leads to less spending on public facilities like education system, law and order, healthcare
and so on.

Social
1. Increasing unemployment and impact on youth
Climate change has exacerbated problems in the social sector by posing a potent threat to economic sectors by
creating economic degradation. Agriculture has been hit hard by climatic changes, thus creating a crisis of
unemployment during the recent years. Currently, a large number of Pakistani youths are unemployed just because
of fragile economy and one major reason behind this is climate change. This situation has given rise to crimes.
Moreover, most unemployed and jobless youth have been vulnerable to mental illness and health problems like
depression.

1. Health issues
Erratic climate change and global warming have led to spread of diseases. Water and air-borne diseases are result of
warm climate patterns, and seriously vulnerable to these diseases are the poor. Lower agricultural production is
triggering health issues which affect the food security – that’s why 45% of Pakistan’s rural and 36% of urban
children are experiencing malnutrition; particularly children in Thar (Sindh) are suffering from malnutrition and
drought.

Geographical
1. Disasters and varying topography
Climate change has also the geographical implications which directly hit the national security of Pakistan. The
country’s total coastline is 1045 kilometres. Owing to a rise in sea level, the lives of people living in coastal areas
are in danger. According to a 2010 report by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), by 2100 sea level
 will rise by 59 centimeters which is a huge threat for Pakistan—it may submerge the coastal line of Pakistan.

1. Detrimental to ecosystem
Climate change has denuded the current ecosystem of Pakistan and has also endangered its biodiversity. The rising
water acidity levels have been caused by high emissions of carbon dioxide, which has also threatened the coral reefs
of sea coastline near Thatta, Sijawal and Karachi to Gwadar. Besides, climate change has affected Thal and Thar
deserts leading to increased droughts. Categorically, if possible measures and remedies not taken then it will lead to
cryptic imbalance and will further disturb the lives of coastal line natives.

Recommendations
Climate change has raised serious concerns for Pakistan’s national security and in future it may become a daunting
challenge, if mitigation policies are not adapted now. Though it is very clear that 21 st century has presented a lot of
technologies and scientific standards which helped human to counter and minimize climate change effects,
Pakistan’s ambivalent eye on resources is the major issue.
Firstly, water scarcity is a huge problem. The state should publicize the issue and penalize those who use it
injudiciously or steal it. Water reservoirs are the need of hour as they will assume critical importance in the near
future.

Secondly, lack of research in agriculture domain is another huge problem. For improvement, we need to re-innovate
technological equipment for better weather prediction, and communication with farmers or landowners must be
made in case of erratic weather patterns.

Thirdly, unless the masses are aware of emerging issues of climate change, all attempts to curb this phenomenon
may end up in smoke. Government should publicize some projects of awareness through print or social media.

Lastly, climate change challenge is the not only for Pakistan, India or Bangladesh but for the whole world, so
Pakistan should augment its cooperation with international community, and get technical and financial help to tackle
emerging non-traditional issues.

Conclusion
It is time we jettisoned our military-centric view of the national security and started paying more attention to the real
threats that imperil our national security in the shape of environmental destruction and natural calamities. It is time
India and Pakistan buried the resource-guzzling hatchet of the nuclear and conventional arms race and took the
raging bull of climate threat by its horns. The time has come for a Track-II initiative between both countries for joint
water resource conservation, watershed management, and environment control.

Climate Change
March 16, 2019 Int'l Affairs, March 2019 Leave a comment
The Hype and Beyond
Climate change has been the buzzword around the globe during
the recent years. From governments to civil society organizations
to academia, everyone is talking about it, and is wary of the
adverse impacts this phenomenon is going to have on terrestrial
life. There is hardly any difference of opinion that climate change
is occurring – difference of opinion, however, exists over where it
will lead. Majority believes that if left unchecked, climate change
will ultimately make life on earth a rarity, if not impossibility. A
small section of experts holds that it will be set off by nature in
times to come, like multiple events of warmer temperatures
followed by ice age in the past. 
What is Climate Change exactly?
Definitions vary. In general, it is a change of climate, which is directly or indirectly related to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere, and which is in addition to natural climate variability over
comparable periods of time.
A 2001 statement from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) read: “Warming of the climate
system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to
millennia. The atmosphere and oceans have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level
has risen. Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases
are the highest in history.” The most recent scientific assessment by the IPCC suggests that the global average
surface temperature on Earth will increase by 1°C to 3.5°C (about 2°F to 6°F) by the year 2100, with an associated
rise in sea level of 15 to 95 cm (6 to 37 inches).

Causes of climate change are multiple but all of them are brought about by human activities. Main cause of the
current global warming trend is human expansion of the “greenhouse effect” – warming which results when the
atmosphere traps heat radiating from the Earth toward space. Certain gases in the atmosphere block heat from
escaping. Long-lived gases that remain semi-permanently in the atmosphere and do not respond physically or
chemically to changes in temperature are described as “forcing” climate change. Gases, such as water vapour, which
respond physically or chemically to changes in temperature, are seen as “feedbacks.” Gases that contribute to the
greenhouse effect include water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).

Human activities are changing the natural greenhouse effect. Over the years, burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil,
emissions from industries and vehicles, decomposition of wastes in landfills, agriculture, especially rice cultivation,
use of commercial and organic fertilizer and burning of biomass have increased the concentration of atmospheric
carbon dioxide (increased from 280 parts per million to 400 parts per million in the last 150 years), methane, nitrous
oxide and chlorofluorocarbons. To a lesser extent, clearing of land for agriculture, industry and other human
activities, as well as deforestation have increased concentrations of greenhouse gases.

Some quarters argue that changes in the sun’s energy output have caused the climate to change. Evidence, however,
shows that current global warming cannot be explained by changes in energy from the sun because NASA’s data
establishes that since 1750, the average amount of energy coming from the sun has either remained constant or has
increased slightly. Moreover, if the warming were caused by a more active sun, scientists would expect to see
warmer temperatures in all layers of the atmosphere. Instead, they have observed a cooling in the upper atmosphere,
and a warming at the surface and in the lower parts of the atmosphere. That’s because greenhouse gases are trapping
heat in the lower atmosphere.

Read More: Climate Change

A look at the possible effects and impacts of climate change presents a picture that necessitates focused, persistent
and coordinated actions. There is growing global consensus that climate change is mankind’s greatest threat in
modern times and is likely to have profound consequences for socioeconomic sectors such as health, food
production, energy consumption, security and natural resource management. The projected increase in the duration
and frequency of heat waves is expected to increase mortality rates as a result of heat stress, especially in areas
where people are not equipped to deal with warmer temperatures. It is also expected to effect an increases in the
potential transmission of vector-borne diseases by extending the range of organisms such as insects that carry these
diseases into the temperate zone, including parts of the United States, Europe and northern Asia.

And, it is not limited to predicted impacts only; rather many harmful impacts of this global warming are already
manifesting around the world in the form of extreme weather events like storms, tornadoes, floods and droughts, all
of which have been mounting in frequency and intensity. Studies have found that the world today suffers, on
average, 400-500 natural disasters a year, up from 125 in the 1980s. There has been an increase in average surface
temperature by 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon
dioxide and other manmade emissions into the atmosphere. Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years, with
the five warmest years on record taking place since 2010. Similarly, increase has been recorded in average sea
temperatures by 0.4°F, resulting in increase in the mean global sea level by 1-2mm per year over the last century.

Worldwide retreat of glaciers and shrinking of ice sheets have been recorded; data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery
and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost an average of 281 billion tons of ice per year between 1993 and 2016,
while Antarctica lost about 119 billion tons during the same period. The rate of Antarctica ice mass loss has tripled
in the last decade. Moreover, shifts of plant and animal ranges, increased events of coral bleaching whereas 30
percent increase in the acidity of ocean waters have also been recorded. This increase is the result of humans
emitting more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and hence more being absorbed into the oceans. The amount of
carbon dioxide absorbed by the upper layer of the oceans is increasing by about 2 billion tons a year.

Climate change will also have severe repercussions for global economy and social strata. People who live in poverty
around the world will be hardest hit by climate change because the poor are more dependent on natural resources
and have less of an ability to adapt to a changing climate. Lower agriculture yields will not only constrain food
supplies across the world but will also hinder supply of crucial raw materials for numerous industries. Together with
increased level of natural calamities, all of this does not augur well for global economy, development and the vision
of lower income inequalities.

Developing countries are the least responsible for climate change, for these countries contribute only 10 percent of
annual global carbon dioxide emissions. However, the geographical location and socioeconomic fragility of most of
the developing nations makes them more vulnerable to the environmental, social and economic ramifications of
climate change and the lack of resources and capabilities to adapt to the changes will worsen the situation, and
Pakistan is no exception.

Pakistan is among the countries most affected by climate change. Global Climate Risk Index 2017 ranked Pakistan
7th among the most adversely affected countries by climate change. The country contributes very little to the overall
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, but remains severely impacted by the negative effects of climate change in ways
such as increased glacier melt in the Himalayas, which can cause high floods similar to the ones witnessed in 2010
and 2012. It will affect water resources within the next two to three decades and will be followed by decreased river
flows over time as glaciers recede. Freshwater availability is also projected to decrease which will lead to
biodiversity loss and reduce availability of freshwater for the population. Coastal areas bordering the Arabian Sea in
the south of Pakistan will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and in some cases, the rivers.

Being a predominantly agriculture economy, climate change is estimated to decrease crop yields in Pakistan which,
in turn, will affect livelihoods and food production. Combining the decreased yields with the current rapid
population growth and urbanization in the country, the risk of hunger and food security will remain very high.
Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diseases primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise.
Increases in coastal water temperatures would exacerbate the abundance of cholera. The impact of climate change
will also aggravate the existing social inequalities of resource-use and intensify social factors leading to instability,
conflicts, displacement of people and changes in migration patterns.

Climate change has been causing severe weather patterns, decrease in rains and phenomena such as smog in the
country, which is a byproduct of air pollution. Crop burning is one contributing factor while other factors are
emissions from vehicles, cement factories and brick kilns. Smog is not common dust particles rather comprises
micro particles such as PM 2.5 that are too small to be caught by rain drops, hence smog isn’t lifted even after rain.
Instead of emergency responses, the country needs measured policy responses including, but not limited to,
enforcement of higher Euro standard fuels, making catalytic convertors compulsory, controlling crop- and waste-
burning, building capacity to monitor and forecast and planting maximum trees possible.

As mentioned in early passages, some quarters, most notably American President Donald Trump, believe the
biosphere will adapt to climate change so there is no need to panic or take any actions. They argue climate change is
not a new influence on the earth and its atmosphere, and that the ecosystems will gradually adapt to it without
significant effects on their form or productivity. However, three factors negate this line of argument.

First, the rate of global climate change is projected to be more rapid than any to have occurred in the last 10,000
years. Second, humans have altered the structure of many of the world’s ecosystems. They have cut down forests,
ploughed soils, used rangelands to graze their domesticated animals, introduced non-native species to many regions
and intensively fished lakes, rivers and oceans. These changes in the structure of the world’s ecosystems have made
them less resilient to automatically adapt to climate change. Third, pollution, as well as other indirect effects of the
utilization of natural resources, has also increased since the beginning of the industrial revolution. In short, climate
change cannot be tackled without efforts and actions.

The way forward with regard to climate change can comprise multifarious approaches. Adaptation to climate change
is one. It refers to actions intended to safeguard, people, communities, businesses and a country against the
vulnerabilities and effects of anticipated or actual climate change. Adaptation aims to allow vulnerable groups to
adjust and live with the changes in the environment and economy that will be caused due to climate change.

The second approach is mitigating climate change. It entails taking actions to tackle the causes of climate change. In
other words, it means taking measures to reduce the emission of GHGs into the atmosphere and halting the global
warming trend. This approach is the key to addressing the imminent dangers climate change poses, as it involves an
array of policy decisions and operational steps with a clear line of action – from changing the ways natural resources
are used to adopting innovative solutions to fulfil world’s energy needs.

There is a need to increasing access to high quality information about the impacts of climate change so that
maximum human population stands sounded on gravity of the issue. Thereafter, sustained in-the-field steps would
include improving technological responses by setting in place early warning systems and information systems to
enhance disaster preparedness, practicing energy efficiency through changes in individual lifestyles and businesses,
reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods to climate change through infrastructural changes, promoting good
governance and responsible policy by integrating risk management and adaptation, developing new and innovative
farm production practices, including new crop varieties and irrigation techniques, improving forest management and
biodiversity conservation, empowering communities and local stakeholders so that they participate actively in
vulnerability assessment and implementation of adaptation, and mainstreaming climate change into development
planning at all scales, levels and sectors.

Of all the problems requiring integrated efforts by world community, climate change stands out because there is
absolutely no way it can be tackled without joint efforts. Climate is beyond all geographic boundaries, racial
considerations, ethnic divides and religious lines, so should be the actions to tackle it. In Pakistan, Environment has
become a provincial subject under the 18th Amendment and this arrangement exacerbates problems in tackling
climate change challenges facing the country. When world is required to move forward on climate change the
beyond country borders, there’s no point in separating the climate change action at a much smaller provincial level.
The world in general and Pakistan in particular need to understand the significance of joint and coordinated efforts if
there exists a real will to tackle climate change.

Fighting Climate Change in Pakistan

October 19, 2018 October 2018, Pak Affairs Leave a comment
By: Sarfraz Saroya
‘Plant for Pakistan’ and other possible avenues
While Pakistan is facing multifarious challenges like a sagging economy, depleting foreign exchange reserves and a
skyrocketing trade deficit, there is another serious problem which will put Imran Khan’s cabinet in real trouble:
climate change. When he unveiled his party’s 100-day plan for the country in May 2018, he showed concern on the
seriousness of environmental crisis that Pakistan is facing due to emission of greenhouse gases by industrial and
energy infrastructures. He pledged to plant 10 billion trees to tackle the effects of climate change in the same
meeting. But is plantation enough to make a difference?

A green Pakistan is one of the many priorities of the current PTI-led government. In the past, when PTI was the
ruling party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), the provincial government had launched a “Billion Tree Tsunami”. This
drive has been a huge success as per the findings of SUPARCO. Now that PTI holds a majority in the centre, the
party and its leadership are determined to fight global warming and climate change. So, taking a leaf from its Billion
Tree Tsunami in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the PTI decided to upscale the model on the national level. During the very
first cabinet meeting of the new government, Prime Minister Imran Khan inquired when a tree plantation drive
would take place since we are almost at the tail end of the monsoon season now. After consultations with experts,
the government announced an ambitious 10 Billion Tree Tsunami programme for the next five years. The purpose of
the campaign is to encourage people, communities, organisations, business and industry, civil society and the
government to collectively plant trees and increase forest cover with a special focus on planting the species that best
suit the area and weather conditions. So, on Sep 02, Prime Minister Imran Khan planted a tree sapling in Haripur
district and, thus, kicked off this countrywide campaign. Thousands of people responded to the nationwide
campaign that went viral on social media, by coming out to plant trees all over Pakistan. The campaign was much
needed because experts fear that Pakistan will be one of the worst affected countries by this phenomenon.

Should this plan come to fruition, it would be the largest environmental uplift project in the country’s history.
Deforestation in Pakistan will worsen the impact of climate change and has already led to more severe flooding. Any
attempt to reverse this trend should be welcomed by everyone; regardless of political ideology.

For the government, the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami should be seen as a starting point and not the final destination.
Pakistan is expected to be hit worse than most other countries by climate change and so we have to adapt to the
challenges of tomorrow. This means practicing water conservation and shifting power consumption to sustainable
energy choices.

The government will have to be careful as it has launched its tree-planting campaign; simply planting new trees
won’t be enough. These new trees will take years to mature and in that time, the tide of deforestation has to be
stemmed by reining in the timber mafia. Commercial interests often collude with unscrupulous government officials
to chop down trees on public lands. This should no longer be tolerated. The government also needs to work with
experts to ensure that the trees it is planting are suitable for our climate and soil. Planting the wrong kind of trees,
which require extra water, can often be worse than not planting any trees at all.

Read More: The Cure for Pakistan’s Climate Change

Woes
In addition, the government needs also to take into consideration some other factors as well so as to make the project
fruitful and cost-effective.

First of all, the plantation project will require a huge sum of money that could be a burden on the national
exchequer. Fertilizing tree plantation requires large input of nitrogenous fertilizer (which also results in emission of
greenhouse gases). Moreover, huge quantity of water will be used to plant trees. We cannot afford consuming large
quantities of water on plantation. So, the principal focus of this campaign should be on cutting emissions of carbon
dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Plantation will act as major support to tackle climate change problem but
remember, it is not an absolute solution.

Imran Khan will have to take tough decisions. Fortunately, solutions exist and if executed properly, Pakistan can
effectively tackle the problem of climate change.

First and the foremost, construction of coal-fired power plants and coal mining at Thar Block I and II , under multi-
billion dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), should be halted. Because once they started functioning,
tonnes of carbon dioxide will be emitted, which will further pollute the atmosphere. Methane, just like carbon
dioxide, is a heat-trapping green house gas which gets released from the coal seam and surrounding disturbed rock
strata when coal is mined.
Prime Minister Khan should instead ask China to invest more and more in electricity-generation projects based on
renewable energy sources, especially the solar energy. If China can invest $86 billion in solar energy at home, then
why not in Pakistan? Also note that China is the largest solar market in the world, having the total installed
photovoltaic capacity of around 130GW. Rather than building $5.6 billion worth of coal-fired power plants under
CPEC, it can invest the same amount on Pakistan’s renewable green energy infrastructure!

Pakistan has huge potential to generate electricity from renewable energy sources like solar, hydro and wind.
Fortunately, the country receives high levels of solar irradiation. According to the World Bank’s solar maps report,
some parts of south-western Balochistan and Sindh have an average Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI – which is
the solar radiation received by any surface horizontal to the land) of over 2300 kWh/m2. Furthermore, ninety
percent of the total area of Pakistan has GHI of over 1500 kWh/m2. Pakistan has 2.9 million megawatts of solar
energy potential, but unfortunately the country is producing only approximately 700MW of electricity from solar
source.

Secondly, PM Khan can cut crude oil imports for energy production. It will help the country save billions of dollars
which can ultimately be utilized to fund renewable energy projects. The country spends $12 billion annually on the
import of crude oil and 70 percent of it is consumed on power generation which also contributes to climate change.
Yet there is another solution to finance green renewable power projects, that is, the issuance of green bonds! These
climate bonds will promote investors to invest in environment-friendly projects by giving them tax incentives. In
2017, $161 billion worth of such securities were issued worldwide, which is turning them into one of the fastest
growing asset classes. PM Khan should consider issuing triple-A credit quality of green bonds, so that more
investors are attracted.

The government should also support microfinance banks across the country by giving them subsidies, so that they
issue soft loans to their customers for installing off-grid solar power systems, which, on the one hand, will reduce
burden on national grid and, on the other, country’s dependence on coal and oil for electricity will also see a
substantial decline.

Finally, the ability to develop strict environment protection policies and then executing them in letter and spirit is the
key to success. Climate change problem at a first glance looks easier to tackle, but it is harder than solving most
economic problems. Plantation is not a solution by any means. Even planting wrong specie contributes to climate
change. Majority of the trees which got planted under Imran Khan’s “Billion Tree Tsunami” in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa were poplar, eucalyptus and willow, which emit high levels of volatile organic compounds VOCs to
protect themselves from bug infestation. These VOCs are hazardous to human health and their reactions with other
air pollutants produce methane and ozone, which are powerful greenhouse gases.

The Human Cost of Climate Change

August 11, 2018 Daily Articles Leave a comment
Home is a place of stability and security. It is a place where families come together to work towards and celebrate
mutual prosperity. But as the human and economic toll of climate change continues to rise, we face legitimate risk of
this sense of home being uprooted.

Last year, devastating floods in South Asia took over 1,200 lives and affected over 20 million people, including 6.8
million children. With an estimated 18,000 schools destroyed or damaged throughout Bangladesh, India and Nepal,
the education of hundreds of thousands of children is under threat, long after the waters have receded.

2017 was also one of the costliest years for weather disasters in the United States. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma
caused almost $200 billion in damage in just Texas and Florida, while the California wildfires could eventually cost
up to $65 billion in property damage.

Unfortunately, initial forecasts reveal that 2018 is also likely to bring an above-average season for hurricanes in the
Atlantic region. These foreboding predictions hit particularly hard as communities continue to rebuild their
livelihoods from last year’s storms.

Some people simply do not have the resources to rebuild. For this reason, along with slow-onset climate change
impacts such as water scarcity and crop failure, the number of internal climate migrants is expected to increase
dramatically. If no action is taken, experts predict that there may be more than 140 million climate migrants moving
within their countries by 2050. More than half of those people are expected to be in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Confronting Natural Disasters
Natural disasters disproportionately affect poor people because they lack the resources to confront hazards, and their
livelihoods often depend on increasingly threatened ecosystems. It need not be individual extreme weather events
that force people to pack up their lives and livelihoods. Many will be forced to move due to climate impacts such as
slow-onset changes in water availability, crop conditions, and sea level rise. There is no quibbling with the fact that
unless we take urgent action to secure climate resilience for all, the world’s most vulnerable will be hardest hit,
further slowing their efforts to rise out of poverty.

If we act now, we could reduce the number of people forced to move due to climate change by as much as 80
percent. Not only would this action preserve livelihoods, but it would also provide significant economic
opportunities. The New Climate Economy has found that investments in green growth in Uganda could increase
GDP by an estimated 10 percent by 2020 ($3.4 billion) compared to business-as-usual. Similarly, the right policies
in my own country of Mexico could achieve a net savings in expenditures of over 500 billion pesos cumulatively
through 2030 (about 2 percent of 2015 GDP).

However, some internal climate migration will be a reality of our century. Too much climate change is already built
in due to previous emissions. But climate migration patterns do not intrinsically have to become social or political
crises. If carefully managed, and supported by good development policies and targeted investment, migration can
actually be a sensible adaptation strategy in response to climate change. To minimize disruption, it is important that
migration is supported by measures to help migrants find housing and integrate into destination labor markets. At
the same time, decision-makers must be mindful to safeguard not only the resilience of those moving, but also of
those in sending and receiving communities.

Considering climate migration as a factor in development planning can set countries on a strong pathway to mitigate
or adapt to climate risks and reduce poverty. For example, Ethiopia’s Growth and Transformation Plan and Climate
Resilient Green Economy strategy have both set targets to shift jobs from the agricultural sector to the services and
industry sectors, making livelihoods less climate-dependent.

It is human nature to seek security and prosperity for your family. As communities deal with the impacts of climate
change, some level of migration is inevitable, and as an adaptation strategy could provide a means to improve
livelihoods. But it is also a moral obligation and practical imperative to keep climate migration to a minimum. By
taking immediate action to reduce emissions, we can avoid disrupting the lives of millions and take advantage of
significant economic opportunities – all while safeguarding the planet we call home.

By: Felipe Calderón

Source: https://www.wri.org

Climate Change
June 26, 2018 General, June 2018 Comments Offon Climate Change
Today’s most daunting challenge
Today, the phenomenon of climate change has become one of the most critical global issues, and is soon going to be
the biggest challenge faced by the humans. Some of the drivers of climate change include deforestation,
infrastructural developments, transmission of increased CO2 emissions, burning of trash, growing number of
vehicles and setting up of automobile workshops and dumping.

Causes and effects of climate change

Human activity from pollution to overpopulation is driving the earth’s temperature up and is fundamentally
changing the world around us. It is basically called the greenhouse effect – warming which results when solar
radiation is trapped by the atmosphere. Gases in the atmosphere such as water vapour, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide,
methane and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are the biggest sources of global warming. The more greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere, the more heat trapped, thus strengthening the greenhouse effect and increasing the earth’s
temperatures. Human activities like the burning of fossil fuels have increased the CO2 levels, especially since the
Industrial Revolution. The rapid increase in the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had been warming the planet at
an alarming rate. While earth’s climate has fluctuated in the past, atmospheric carbon dioxide has not reached the
levels it is touching today. Climate change has consequences for our oceans, weather food and health.

Oceans
Ice sheets such as Iceland and Antarctica are melting. The extra water is causing sea levels to rise and spills out of
the oceans, thus causing floods in more regions.
Weather
Warmer temperature also makes strange weather patterns. This means not only more intense major storms, floods
and heavy snowfall but also longer and heavy droughts. These changes in weather are the real challenges.
Food
Growing crops becomes more difficult; the areas where plants and animals can live, shift. Water supplies are
diminished.

Health
In addition to creating new agricultural challenges, climate change can directly affect people’s physical health. In
urban areas, the warmer climate creates the environment that traps and increases the amount of smog. This is
because smog contains ozone particles which increase rapidly at higher temperatures. Exposure to the higher level of
smog can cause health problems such as asthma, heart disease and lung cancer.

Conclusion
While the rapid rate of climate change is caused by humans, it is us, the humans, who can combat this menace. If we
work to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy sources, like wind and solar, which don’t produce greenhouse gas
emissions we might be able to prevent some of the worst effects of climate change.

There is, currently, a sheer lack of awareness regarding real dangers of climate and the ways we should combat
those. The issues should be brought up as a topic in social sciences, mass communication, environmental and
religious lectures or Friday sermons. The Ulema and the social and political leaders must take the lead in this regard.

The Cure for Pakistan’s Climate Change Woes

January 15, 2018 January 2018, Pak Affairs Leave a comment
How to tackle the most daunting challenge
As a non-traditional security threat, climate change has
continued to pose daunting challenges to Pakistan. The pressing
issue of global warming jeopardizes a country’s future economic
stability and security. The devastating floods of 2010 and 2011
and the extreme heatwave of 2015 have indicated that the state
should brace itself for more natural calamities like torrential
rains and severe heatwaves in summers.
Though it contributes little to global greenhouse gases, Pakistan is still among the top 10 countries most vulnerable
to climate change as indicated by the Global Climate Risk Index developed by Germanwatch. On account of the
excessive combustion of fossil fuels – in cars and factories and during electricity production – massive deforestation
and the uncontrolled burning of crops, the amount of emissions is likely to increase. The country’s emissions are
expected to increase from 405 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide to over 1,603 metric tonnes in the next 15 years.

Pakistan has been severely hit by climate change in recent years. The year 2017 broke all records when the
temperature of Turbat in Balochistan reached a staggering 54 degrees centigrade on May 28. Claire Nullis, the
WMO spokeswoman, declared Turbat to be the hottest place on earth in summer. “[T]he hottest place on Earth
appears to be the town of Turbat in southwestern Pakistan, which reported a temperature of 54 degrees Celsius in
May,” she said. Moreover, the increasing temperature of Turbat has also been predicted as the hottest temperature
ever recorded in Asia, and the fourth highest in the world.

If a country’s temperature rises steadily, it is likely to face extreme weather conditions over some years. Over the
past two decades, Pakistan has suffered from over 130 climate change-induced events of floods, droughts and
heatwaves. Despite repeated warnings, the state has been largely unprepared to tackle the adverse impacts of the
slow warming of the world’s temperature. The government’s lethargy is reflective of an entrenched cycle of bad
governance and a dismal institutional failure embedded in the country’s political structure.

On account of climate change, the country has experienced some of the warmest summers in its history. As per a
recent report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the annual average temperature in Pakistan has risen by
around 0.5 degrees Celsius over the last five years, with the number of heatwave days per year increasing about five-
fold in the last three decades. The constant increase in temperature will effect scorching summers, accelerate rise in
the sea level, expedite the melting of glaciers, produce intense heatwaves, trigger the migration of animals and
increase the risk of tropical storms near the coastal areas of Sindh and Balochistan in the future.
The country has also experienced a slight increase in its annual precipitation levels since 1970. The increasing rate
of precipitation often causes a heavy downpour during the monsoons; flooding large swathes of agricultural lands
and inundating several settlements, especially along the River Indus. With its sagging economy, the country’s
National Disaster Management Authority seems to be unable to quickly respond to heavy rains and the resulting
flash floods. Furthermore, the metropolitan corporations are ill-prepared to effectively deal with downpours as was
witnessed in Karachi last summer when torrential rains battered the city.

The changing temperatures across the world have continued to create a range of economic and security issues for
Pakistan also. First, the devastating impact of the gradual rise in the world’s temperature has slowly exacerbated the
already acute water scarcity faced by Pakistan. The country’s per capita water availability has considerably
decreased from 1,500 cubic metres at the time of independence to 1,017 cubic metres at present. Some international
organizations have warned Pakistan, time and again, that it will face droughts in the next 10 to 40 years due to the
rising global temperatures.

According to IMF, Pakistan’s water requirement is projected to reach 274 million cubic acre-feet (MAF) by 2025
while the estimated supply will remain stagnant at 191 MAF. The water scarcity will severely impact agricultural
productivity, increase the risk of waterborne diseases and food insecurity, and may result in protests across the
country. So far, the government has displayed its outright indifference to building water reservoirs to store, for
future use, the excessive water produced by the melting of glaciers and excessive monsoon rains. What should not
be forgotten is that the water crisis in Pakistan could also escalate India-Pakistan hostilities and create further
friction in the near future.

Second, climate change has also brought about an adverse impact on the country’s $300 billion economy. As per a
recent study conducted by the UNDP, Pakistan is currently spending over eight percent of its national budget on
mitigating the calamitous effects of climate change. Studies undertaken by the National Disaster Management
Authority (NDMA) indicate that extreme climate events between 1994 and 2013 have caused an average annual
economic loss of approximately $4 billion. Floods between 2010 and 2014 have caused financial losses to the tune
of $18 billion with 38.12 million people affected, 3.45 million houses damaged and 10.63 million acres of standing
crops destroyed.

Third, as a littoral country, Pakistan has been menacingly grappled with a gradual rise in the sea level. When the sea
level rises, the destruction of a large number of houses located near the seashore is highly likely. According to the
ADB, the sea level along the Karachi coast has risen nearly 10 centimetres over the last century, devouring
thousands of hectares of coastal lands. The gradual melting of the country’s glaciers has contributed to this ominous
rise. What is more alarming is that Pakistan’s glaciers are fast depleting, that is, at a rate of between 30 metres and
50 metres annually, due to global warming. If the government does not build adequate dams to store water from
melting glaciers and fails to construct concrete protection walls along seashores of its coastal areas, the sea level will
continue to gradually rise and erode the coastal lands.

Fourth, climate change is also likely to cause contagious diseases owing to air and water pollution. Such pollution
could raise the risk of attacks of asthma and other respiratory ailments. There are already over 14 million Pakistanis
who suffer from asthma and the incidence of this disease is increasing by about 30 percent every year. A large
segment of the country’s population is at risk of contracting vector-borne diseases also. The government has no
feasible plans to stop the spread of these diseases.

Lastly, climate change is also responsible for the displacement and death of a large number of people in Pakistan.
The flash floods of 2010 created some 20 million climate refugees in the country – 10 percent of the total global
estimate of 200 million climate refugees expected by 2050. These floods brought about around 1,781 deaths and
destroyed over 1.89 million homes. Moreover, the 2011 floods also adversely affected the country, rendering 5.3
million people homeless and destroying 1.2 million homes in Sindh and inundating 1.7 million acres of arable land.

Pakistan cannot resolve the issue of climate change on its own; however, it can convince the international
community to fund the country in terms of financing the efforts on mitigation of catastrophic impacts of global
warming. The government should use adept diplomacy to access the Green Climate Fund (GCF). The GCF amounts
to $10 billion. Of this, $2 billion has already been allocated to 43 projects globally to increase climate-change
resilience for 125 million people in Africa and the Asia-Pacific states.

The world community does not trust Pakistan anymore because of the country’s protracted crisis of bad governance,
rampant corruption and a lack of efficiency and transparency. So, the government should eliminate corruption and
resolve the leadership crisis at the earliest.
The government must also expand the capacity of the Rescue 1122 and the NDMA so that they can promptly
respond to extreme disasters. The provinces should coordinate with the federal government with respect to
effectively dealing with the major causes and severe consequences of climate change.

The War against Climate Change

November 24, 2017 CSS Special, November 2017 Leave a comment

Notwithstanding that Trump administration has withdrawn from

Paris Climate Agreement, the average global temperature is
rising; the heated oceans are intensifying the occurrence of
extreme weather patterns; the unusually warm climate is
increasing the frequency and intensity of hurricanes, typhoons
and sea surges —  recent category 4 and 5 hurricanes Harvey and
Irma in the Atlantic ocean, for example — huge hole has opened
up in Antarctica’s ice cover, the maximum ice coverage of Arctic is
at the lowest since 1979, the Greenland’s ice caps are fast
depleting and coastal floods are being witnessed at
unprecedented levels; humanity is fiercely fighting against
climate change on scientific, diplomatic, political, religious and
social fronts. The news from these fronts are positive and
encouraging and they give optimism that humanity would be able
to survive climate change-driven existential threat as it had
effectively countered the long-feared threats of population-bomb-
driven mass starvation of the people through Green Revolution in
the 1960’s. Green Revolution negated the Malthus’s prediction
and ensured outpacing the food production from population
growth through High Yielding Varieties (HYVs), the
mechanization of agronomical practices, the application of
artificial fertilisers and improved and effective irrigation system. 
Science at the service of humanity
Mitigation and adaptation are two approaches that are the undercurrent of all efforts being made to neutralize the
repercussions of climate change. As far as war against climate change on science and technology front is concerned,
there is much advancement that promises effective adaption and mitigation. Scientists are trying to decarbonize our
global energy and transportation systems and developing new techniques that would be instrumental in ensuring
food and nutritional security on sustainable basis.

The burning of fossil fuels for power generation is the biggest source of emissions of CO2 and other greenhouses
gases. In this regard, many developments indicate that we are going in the right direction for complete transition
from non-renewable sources of energy to the renewable ones. The innovation of sodium-based batteries, the near-
development of living solar batteries that will manipulate the photosynthetic ability of bacteria to generate power –
these batteries will be 4 times more efficient than solar panels – the use of the molten-salt reactors in nuclear plants
that will use thorium instead of uranium and the rapid improvement in fusion-based power plants which will be able
to generate power at unprecedented level with zero CO2 emissions or dangerous nuclear refuse will go a long way in
meeting the nationally determined targets set by the Paris Accord. In addition to these environment-friendly sources
of energy, scientists have developed successfully many techniques that would turn CO2 into stone or reusable
concrete. One of them is CO2NCRETE, a project that will capture CO2 and turn it into concrete that will also be
used in construction. This project will soon be launched in India and China. With all these completed and near-
completed projects, the scientists have planned to turn our whole energy mix into 100% renewable energy mix by
2050. This mix would include 36% wind power, 21% solar power, 15% residential rooftop solar power and
remaining gap will be met through tidal, geothermal and hydroelectric sources of energy.

Transportation is also a major source of carbon emission. The triumphant march of science in this field also
continues. Japanese company, Toyota has announced that it is going to launch zero-emission heavy–duty truck by
the end of October. Germany has also inaugurated a train which emits water vapour and warm air. Both of these
would use the technology called hydrogen fuel cell that is environment-friendly. In addition to improved electric
vehicles, both in speed and efficiency, the technological advancements have materialized the erstwhile wild idea of
Hyperloop. This superfast transportation system both for passengers and freight would use only electricity with zero
CO2 emissions and will provide astonishing speed of more than 700 km/h. This system would be launched in
Mexico within the next few years.

Threatened food security and endangered ecosystem and biodiversity are also the areas where intensive struggle is
being made to ensure the survival of human beings. The science is making huge strides in these areas as well.
Deforestation and consequent desertification of fertile lands is among the principal threats to food security. To
neutralize this threat, Chinese scientists have come up with a breakthrough development whereby they have
converted 200 hectare desert area into arable land. They have developed organic paste, made from cell walls of
plants, that has increased the ability of sand to retain nutrients, water and air. The results are miraculous: 200 hectare
converted land is now yielding corn, tomatoes, sorghum and sunflower. Coupled with irrigation, this breakthrough
advancement has full potential to provide millions of hectare of additional arable land. Drought, salinity and
waterlogging are some of hurdles in the way of ensuring food security, drought-, salinity- and waterlogging-resistant
crop varieties are the right answer. In this regard, different biotechnology techniques offer unique solutions of
manipulating the genome of crop species with an aim to insert desired traits. The recent breakthrough in this regard
came in the form of CRISPR technique that has drastically refined the available genetic engineering tools to carry
out gene-editing precisely at base-pair level. This advancement in biotechnology would go a long way in developing
extreme-weather-resistant crop varieties to ensure food security.

The preservation of global ecosystem and biosphere demands large-scale and unprecedented collective effort on the
part of humanity. In this regard, scientists are putting forward different radical ideas and projects to check and even
reverse the climate change. One of them is geo-engineering, an umbrella term that includes different strategies to
modify the overall absorbing and reflecting ability of the Earth either through adding the layers of ice on North and
South Poles or through creating artificial magnetic field around the Earth. A pilot project is being carried out in
Switzerland by which efforts are being made to not only stop the melting of ice but also to recover the dissipated
fringes of glacier. If this project shows encouraging results, this would be applied in Arctic Sea and Greenland in
order to recover the fast-melting ice sheet in the North Pole. 
There is also a rapidly-growing consensus among policymakers the world over that climate change is not a West-
made hoax; it’s a reality and its consequences are becoming more and more visible with every passing day. Biggest
surprise came from China; the very country that had long been accused of scuttling every global initiative aimed at
climate change; is now a leading country in terms of spending on renewable energy sources – more than $360 billion
– such as wind and solar power. Country after country is announcing plans to curb carbon emissions through
encouraging electric cars and vehicles running on diesel or petrol. The Netherlands, Norway, France, the United
Kingdom and Scotland have announced to phase out petrol or diesel-powered cars by 2040. Although China and
India have not given a timeframe, many analysts hope that they will also follow the suit. The most remarkable
achievement in war against climate change is the success of global diplomacy in persuading the countries to curb
their carbon emissions in order to halt the global warming. The tenuous diplomatic efforts are paying concrete
dividends: Montreal Protocol, which was signed in 1987 with an intention to save ozone layer through banning the
production of chlorofluorocarbons, has succeeded in recovering the depleted ozone layer above Antarctica and
scientists assert that without the Protocol, the whole Ozone layer would have been vanished by 2050 with
devastating repercussions; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that started its
journey as a toothless, non-binding treaty, has evolved through global consensus into a legally hybrid treaty (having
both binding and non-binding provisions). In its 21st Conference of Parties (COP 21) meeting, commonly known as
Paris Agreement, the UN laid considerable emphasis on green development, protection of biodiversity and
preservation of ecosystem in its promulgation of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), adopted and rigorously
pursued by all UN member states.

However, the fight is far from over. There is still a long distance to be covered in order to hand over a healthy,
habitable and biologically-vibrant global environment to our next generations. Challenges are multiple, multi-
faceted and multi-pronged, but fortunately a universal agreement on the dangers of climate change has crystalized
the opinions of the policymakers of different countries. The global collaboration and reimbursement of green funds
to the developing countries, financing the research aimed at sorting out strategies to neutralize the threats of climate
change, the capacity building of state institutions and awareness campaign and provision of conducive environment
for NGOs working against climate change are some of the steps that require immediate attention.

11 Terrifying Climate Change Facts in 2017

November 20, 2017 Int'l Affairs, November 2017 Leave a comment
While a dwindling band of refuseniks still insist that is doesn’t
exist, climate change is already here, and it’s only going to get
worse, with some of the severe effects having already started to
take hold.
The Paris Agreement was implemented as a collaborative global response to climate change, with a goal of reducing
emissions. It aims to keep the global temperature rise to just 1.5°C, which would significantly reduce the risks and
the impacts associated with climate change. President Donald Trump later decided to pull the US out of the
agreement, describing the move as “a reassertion of America’s sovereignty”. Here is a list of 11 terrifying climate
change facts in 2017.

1. Record-breaking Temperatures
The 21st century has seen the most temperature records broken in recorded history. The year 2016 was the hottest
year on record since 1880 – and third year in a row to set a new record for global average surface temperatures –
according to NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with average temperatures
measuring almost one degree Celsius warmer than the mid-20th century mean.

2. No Scientific Debate
A massive 97 percent of researchers believe global warming is happening and that the trends observed over the last
past century are probably due to human activity. However, climate change is considered only the third most serious
issue facing the world by the world’s population, behind international terrorism and poverty, hunger and the lack of
drinking water.

3. Melting Arctic Glaciers

Arctic sea ice coverage has shrunk every decade since 1979 by 3.5 to 4.1 percent. Glaciers have also been in retreat
almost everywhere in the world, including major mountain ranges like the Alps, Himalayas and Rockies. In 2017,
arctic sea ice reached a record low for the third straight running, according to scientists from the National Snow and
Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and NASA.

4. Fast Rising Sea Level

Sea levels rise primarily by the added water from melting ice sheets and glaciers, as well as the expansion of sea
water as it warms. Levels are currently rising at their fastest rate for more than 2,000 years and the current rate of
change is 3.4mm a year. In July 2017, a massive crack in the Larson C ice shelf finally gave way sending a 5,800
square km section of ice into the ocean.

5. The Refugee Crisis

Displacement of people as a direct result of global warming is not hypothetical; it’s already happening. On average,
21.5 million people have been forcibly displaced since 2008 due to climate change-related weather hazards,
according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The UNHCR further says that climate change
also acts as a ‘threat multiplier’ in areas of ongoing conflict.
6. Earth’s 2017 Resources Consumed
Earth Overshoot Day marks the date when humanity’s demand for ecological resources and services in a given year
exceeds what Earth can regenerate in that year. This annual event is getting earlier and earlier in the year. In 2000 it
landed in October. In 2015, it was August 13. This year, it landed on August 2.

The world’s superpowers – including China, the US, the UK, Germany and Japan – already use more than double
the amount of resources they produce.

7. Great Barrier Reef Damaged

In April 2017, it was revealed that two-thirds of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef has been severely damaged by coral
bleaching. This occurs when algae living within the coral tissue are expelled, usually as a result of water
temperatures being too high. As a result, the coral loses its vibrant appearance, turns white and becomes weaker.
Scientists say it will be hard for the damaged coral to recover.

8. More Acidic Ocean

The pH of ocean surface water has decreased by 0.1, which makes them 26 percent more acidic now than at the
beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The waters are more acidic now that at any other point in the last 300,000
years.

9. Global Flooding
The number of people exposed to flooding each year is at risk of tripling from 21 million to 54 million by 2030,
according to a study from the World Resources Institute. This would result in the economic costs of flooding
increasing from £65 billion to around £340 billion.

10. More Greenhouse Gases

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached the milestone of 400 parts per million for the first
time in 2015 and surged again to new records in 2016, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s annual
Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.

11. Warming Earth

The Earth’s temperature will continue to rise so long as we continue to produce greenhouse gases. The estimates for
how much temperatures will increase by 2100 range from 2 degrees Celsius to as much as 6 degrees Celsius.

Climate Change & Pakistan

It cannot be said loud enough or often enough that Pakistan is galloping headlong into an emergency that it can do
nothing to stop and very little to mitigate — climate change. Despite having a carbon footprint that is minuscule
compared to the likes of America, continental Europe or China, Pakistan is in the top five countries that are going to
be adversely — which is a polite way of saying disastrously — affected by this. The argument about who or what
has caused climate change is academic and for us an irrelevance. The government is gradually waking up to
unpleasant realities and the deputy director for the Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC) says that there is a ‘dire
need to adopt measures on a war footing to create awareness among the farming community about the impacts of
climate change.’ He is exactly right though whether anybody is listening to him is something of a moot point.

Brutally put, Pakistan stands to see famine and starvation because rising temperatures pose a serious risk to
sustainable food security and there is a likelihood that unless changes can be effected then food consumption needs
are not going to be met. There is no point in beating about the bush or using euphemistic language. Pakistan is
among the countries that are going to see catastrophic consequences if temperatures continue to rise as they have;
and there is no indication that the Paris Climate Accords are going to be able to apply the brakes in time to stop
millions, many millions, hitting the wall with their feet hard down on the accelerator.

This is not alarmism for the sake of a headline; this is what is going to happen a generation hence. The Asian
Development Bank in a new report says that a ‘business as usual approach’ is going to be disastrous for all the Asian
countries. It is not wrong. Just how many wake-up calls do we need?

Climate change – Pakistan’s multi-billion dollar

problem
September 9, 2017 Daily Articles Leave a comment
Despite the judicious planning by the Planning Commission of Pakistan, one very potent factor that has inhibited
economic growth remains largely undealt with-climate change.

As the earth heats up it adversely affects our agriculture which till today has remained the greatest contributor to our
economy.  Global warming isn’t just increasing our temperatures, it is also affecting the time and quantity of rains,
wind patterns etc.

Temperatures in Pakistan have reached an all-time high with Mohenjo-Daro reaching 53.5oC the fourth highest ever
recorded temperature in Asia. In 2015, the severe heat wave that struck southern Pakistan caused temperatures to
rise to 490C, caused more than 1,200 deaths in Karachi alone. The high temperatures are disrupting the overall
environmental cycle; too few rains, floods and drought, simultaneously.

While the amount of rainfall has started to dwindle or increase significantly, there are long months of drought as
well. It is surprising to note that a country that is considered water scarce is regularly facing floods as well. This can
be contributed to the government’s planning as well that is insufficient in mitigating the effects of erratic rain and
water scarcity. According to Economic Survey of Pakistan 2013, more than 3,000 people were killed because of
floods in 2010, 2011 and 2012 and a loss of $16 billion was incurred.

Floods aren’t only caused by the momentous rains but also because of the rivers flooding as a result of melting
glaciers. Not only are they causing the sea levels to rise but the fresh water that can be used for domestic use gets
dumped in the sea after causing a considerable amount of damage to the country. According to Nasir Pahnwar, an
environmental expert, data from independent surveys have shown that 3.1 million acres of agricultural land around
Badin, Thatta and Sujawal districts have submerged in sea.

Climate change is said to decrease livestock production by 20%-30% in the coming years. This is bound to cause
shortages of meat, milk and poultry supplies causing price surge and affecting an average consumer in the economy.
Overall, it is predicted that by the end of 21st century, the agricultural sector alone would lose about $2-$15
billion/annum as a result of climate change.

Socio-economic problems
The effects of global warming can be seen as translating into different socio-economic conflicts because of the
resources that increasingly become scarce translating into conflicts over resources. Pakistan has a fair share of
people living below the poverty line (60 million as of 2016) and more keep adding to these numbers. Poverty
thwarts economic growth and with scant resources and power shortages, rising unemployment and inequitable health
facilities, these people take to the streets.

According to Ghulam Rasul, Director General, Pakistan Meteorological Department, “Most societal disruptions in
and around drought-stricken areas are caused by migration between new settlers (refuge seekers) and settled people.
The nature of conflict is the scarcity of resources-which now have to be used between two groups of people. Theft
and in-fighting soon follows.”

Recently, during Ramazan protests ensued in Karachi and Badin as Sindh plunged to darkness causing water
shortages for the duration of the electricity outage. 70% of the country’s economic hub was affected by the
breakdown. These power outages cause total shutdowns at construction sites, businesses etc. Protests in Karachi
have almost always caused clashes with law enforcement agencies, resulting in fatalities. With heat waves hitting
country more than once, power outages further exacerbate the problem.

Real Estate Sector

Interestingly, the effects of climate change on real estate are also very profound and are borne as costs for how
construction will be carried out around these areas, transportation costs etc.

From this it is apparent that the main problem of climate change arises because of increasing sea levels causing cost
hikes for real estate developers. Houses, apartments, etc. have to be made flood resistant and to also withstand the
humidity levels. This is a problem faced by the real estate market of Karachi as well. Previously it had always
attracted a large pool of investors but now more investors are attracted towards Gwadar.

In Karachi Shireen Jinnah Colony and Keti Bunder’s settlements are one of the most prominent examples of these.
In mid 1990s Karachi Port Trust decided to take the area around Shireen Jinnah Colony and was seemed to have
been reclaimed successfully by making it safe from tides, however, it proved to be faulty when high speed waves
inundated through the wall against the shore. In Keti Bunder out of 48 settlements, 34 have been submerged into the
sea, causing 60,000 people to be displaced from their homes.

Climate change is happening right now and it’s effecting all of us. If it continues to go unnoticed then it will cause
problems that are beyond anyone’s control to reverse. “Pakistan has all the right laws for establishment of climate
resistant infrastructure, especially houses, however, it is very hard to regulate the kacchi abadis of fishermen along
the coast lines,” Rasul said.

“During the 2007 tropical cyclone that hit Karachi, bill boards were flying like razor blades, cutting across vehicles
and people on foot. Various buildings were also damaged. We need strong infrastructure that can withstand all
climate changes, now that this is going to be a common occurrence,” he added.

When talking about how real estate is being affected by climate change he highlighted, “Real estate prices are highly
susceptible to the strength of houses, whether or not they can withstand climate changes. In most northern areas,
houses are built on slopes, however, flash floods and landslides mostly wash these away. This inhibits realty sector
development in these areas.”

Rasul and many others in the government are of the view that climate change has emerged as a national issue. He
believes that the compensation given to flood victims and drought-stricken people aren’t sustainable measures and
that the government needs to take concrete steps towards mitigating the dire effects of climate change.

By: REMSHAY AHMED

Source: https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk

Pakistan needs access to global funds to cope

with climate change
August 28, 2017 Daily Articles Leave a comment
ISLAMABAD: The world’s geographical history shows that climate change is not a new phenomenon as scientists
have tracked historical changes in the drivers of climate change such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and
continental drift.

Currently, due to anthropogenic activities, the pace of climate change is high compared to changes in the past. It is
essential, therefore, to find ways to mitigate drastic impacts of the ongoing climate change wave through adaptation
and prevention without compromising development targets.

Climate change is becoming a challenge for many countries as the frequencies of weather anomalies and climatic
extremes have increased during the last two decades.

According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan is ranked number 7 in the list of most vulnerable countries,
suffering economic losses of $3.823 billion in the last two decades due to climate change and climate extremes.

At the 2016 United Nations Climate Change Conference, Federal Minister for Climate Change Zahid Hamid said:
“We emit less than 1% of total annual global greenhouse gases, yet we are ranked amongst top 10 countries most
vulnerable to climate change. Millions of people are affected and colossal damage is caused on a recurring basis.”

Climate change is a global phenomenon; none of the countries alone can deal with the issue. So, there is a need to
work collectively and for this purpose various international forums such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), UN Environment Programme (UNEP), International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change (UNFCCC) have been set up.
At the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP) under UNFCCC, the developed countries agreed to pay at least $100
billion every year to the developing countries as a climate adaptation fund till 2020.

Fund allocation
Pakistan is already facing many socio-economic problems such as energy shortage, poverty, malnutrition, lack of
health care facilities and safe drinking water. Climate change is further contributing to these by affecting livelihoods
of individuals and economy as a whole.

In responding to the above situation, Pakistan is facing challenges in building community resilience and adaptation
to climate change.

Fund allocation for climate change adaptation seems very low as in the 2015-16 budget the domestic allocation was
only Rs39 million and in the 2017-18 budget Rs815 million has been earmarked for the Environment Division,
mostly for the climate change schemes.

Pakistan needs to get access to international financial resources to meet the adaptation and mitigation costs. It was
agreed in COP 22 (part of the 2016 United Nations Climate Change Conference) that developing countries need to
establish a proper regulatory mechanism to cope with the challenges they face in accessing climate change
adaptation funds and to bridge the gap between the donor and recipient countries.

Pakistan has submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the UNFCCC in which energy
and transport, industry and waste and agriculture and forestry have been identified as potential sectors that need to
acquire funding from the Green Climate Fund.

To meet development targets, Pakistan is likely to emit four times more GHGs by 2030, which would require $40
billion to mitigate the effects.

Climate change bill

For this purpose, Pakistan has recently passed the Climate Change Bill 2017 to show its commitment to combating
the adverse effects of climate change by passing specific laws.

Along with the policy formulation, this bill paves the way for setting up a climate change authority which is
responsible for development of the mitigation and adaptation framework for various sectors of the economy.

The climate change bill also established a climate change fund which is managed by the authority. Its core objective
is to meet expenditures of the authority and fund itself and also to provide financial assistance to the adaptation and
mitigation projects as well as research.
Pakistan is an energy-deficient county and instead of seeking international funds for fossil fuel energy generation
(under CPEC), it needs to move for renewable energy generation.

We should look for funds to build capacity of the workforce, improve the technological resource base and strengthen
institutions for renewable energy sources.

“It’s our need to consume coal to meet our development targets to fulfill needs of the growing population. We can
cut out GHG emission if we are provided with sufficient resources, technology, capacity and finances to move for
green energy and renewables,” said Mountain and Glacier Protection Organisation (MGPO) CEO Aisha Khan.

Pakistan requires a strong national commitment and leadership and innovative business models to gain financial and
technical assistance from both domestic and international players.

It is important to note that Pakistan has not been on track in terms of implementing its Climate Change Policy 2012
and provincial climate change divisions have not performed effectively after devolution of power in 2010.

Amid this situation, Pakistan has developed its INDCs and passed the climate change bill after ratification of the
Paris Climate Change Agreement to show its interest and commitment.

According to UNDP’s Climate Public Expenditures and Institutional Review 2015 for next 40 years, Pakistan would
require $10.70 billion per annum as the cost of adaptation to climate change and mitigation cost would range from
$8 billion to $17 billion.

It requires a strong national will along with solid legislation like the climate change bill to efficiently mitigate the
effects of and adapt to extreme climate changes.

By: Awais Umar

Source: https://tribune.com.pk

A REGION AT RISK, The Human Dimensions of

Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific
August 12, 2017 August 2017, CSS Special Leave a comment
On July 14th, the Asian Development Bank released a report on
the impacts of climate change on the Asia and Pacific region. The
report warns that a business-as-usual approach to climate
change will be disastrous for Asia, undoing much of the
phenomenal economic growth that has helped it make vast
inroads against poverty. It also says that Myanmar, the
Philippines, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan and Thailand are
among the world’s top 10 countries most affected by extreme
weather events. This article consists of the Executive Summary of
the report. 
The Asia and Pacific region is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Unabated warming could
significantly undo previous achievements of economic development and improvements of living standards. At the
same time, the region has both the economic capacity and weight of influence to change the present fossil-fuel based
development pathway and curb global emissions. The assessment concludes that, even under the Paris consensus
scenario in which global warming is limited to 1.5°C to 2°C above preindustrial levels, some of the land area,
ecosystems and socioeconomic sectors will be significantly affected by climate change impacts, to which
policymakers and the investment community need to adapt to. However, under a Business-As-Usual (BAU)
scenario, which will cause a global mean temperature rise of over 4°C by the end of this century, the possibilities for
adaptation are drastically reduced. Among others, climate change impacts such as the deterioration of the Asian
water towers, prolonged heat waves, coastal sea-level rise and changes in rainfall patterns could disrupt ecosystem
services and lead to severe effects on livelihoods which, in turn, would affect human health, migration dynamics and
the potential for conflicts. This assessment also underlines that, for many areas vital to the region’s economy,
research on the effects of climate change is still lacking.

Temperature Change
With unabated climate change, mean summer temperatures are expected to increase by more than 6°C above
preindustrial levels by the end of the 21st century over some parts of the land of Asia. Locally, temperature changes
can deviate significantly from mean changes in the global or regional temperature. Climate model projections
indicate stronger summertime warming over higher latitudes in Asia where the temperature increase may reach up to
8°C.

Heat Extremes
The occurrence of heat extremes is more heterogeneously spread over the land mass of the region. Under the BAU
scenario, summer temperatures considered unusual under current climate conditions might become the new norm
from 2070 onward. Some areas, particularly in Southeast Asia, could enter into entirely new climate regimes due to
frequent occurrence of unprecedented heat extremes.

Limiting global warming to 2°C would significantly lower the risk of severe heat extremes. Moreover, keeping
global warming below 1.5°C would halve the percentage of Asian land areas expected to experience heat extremes
compared to a 2°C warmer world.

Precipitation
Climate models project a general upward trend in annual mean precipitation over most of the land of the region
toward the end of the 21st century. However, the magnitude of change is much larger for the BAU scenario than for
the Paris consensus scenario. Both observations and state-of-the-art climate model projections show a pronounced
increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, particularly over Southeast Asia, which may, thus,
face more severe flooding if the global temperature continues to rise.

Sea-Level Rise
If the Paris Agreement is fully implemented, sea-level rise may be limited to 0.65 metres within the course of this
century. Under the BAU scenario however, sea level may rise by 1.4 metres. Under both scenarios, sea level will
continue to rise for many centuries to come. For every degree of global warming, the world is committed to an
eventual sea-level rise in excess of 2.3 metres. Thus, even if the 2°C guardrail were to be respected, sea level would
eventually rise by more than 5 metres over centuries and millennia.

Glaciers and Rivers

The glaciers across the High Mountain regions of Asia have shown measurable signs of recession. However,
changes are highly heterogeneous. Available climate change impact assessments have shown an increase of both the
risk of flooding and water shortages, as the natural storage capacities of glaciers diminish while glacial lake outburst
floods become more likely. As a result, the dependency on rainwater increases.

While flooding risks will increase in the Asian monsoon region due to heavy precipitation and runoff, it is also very
likely that the region will face water shortages due not only to projected changes in climate but also to growing
water demand from rapid population and economic growth. Options to cope with water scarcity may include
integrated river basin management, adaptive management of old reservoirs, construction of new reservoirs, and
techniques for efficient water use such as rainwater harvesting and water reuse.

Tropical Cyclones
Tropical cyclone activity by itself is driven by large internal variability that potentially prohibits the attribution of
projected losses to different levels of global warming. Therefore, a quantification of the effect different degrees of
global warming could have on tropical cyclone impacts for the Asia and Pacific region remains challenging.
Nevertheless, there is a projected upward trend in damages under a warming climate. However, due to increasing
tropical cyclone strength with rising global mean temperature and taking into account the cohazard of sea-level rise,
it is likely that a BAU climate development will lead to significantly higher losses than those under the climate
associated with the Paris consensus climate scenario.

Agriculture
Climate change poses large, but regionally differing, threats to agriculture and food security in Asia through higher
temperatures, drier conditions, sea-level rise, and flooding. Major uncertainties the extent of the threat relate to the
effects of carbon dioxide fertilization.

Both biophysical climate impacts and ensuing impacts on development are likely to be substantial in the region.
Currently, declining soil productivity, groundwater depletion and declining water availability, as well as increased
pest incidence and salinity, threaten food security in the region.

Fisheries and Reef Ecosystems

Under the BAU scenario, all coral reef systems are projected to collapse due to mass bleaching. Recent analyses
show that even with global warming limited to 2°C, almost all coral reefs are projected to experience severe
bleaching, resulting in massive dieback. This would have severe consequences for coastal livelihoods such as
fisheries and tourism, as fish stocks could be greatly reduced with impaired reef ecosystems. Limiting global
warming to 1.5°C could prevent the complete loss of corals.

Security
Energy resources, natural resources and poverty are significant variables in the generation of conflicts. Their
vulnerability to climate change impacts is likely to be a future driver of instabilities. The threat of energy insecurity
emerges from potential grid infrastructure failure, a continued reliance on unsustainable fossil fuels and energy
imports, intermittent performance of hydropower plants as a result of uncertain water discharges, and reduced
capacities of thermal power plants as a result of an increasing scarcity of cooling water. Investments in fossil fuel
production like coal-fired power plants could turn into stranded assets as renewable energy sources achieve market
dominance. As energy demand in the Asian region rises, yet supply becomes insecure, conflicts are a potential
outcome. All these factors considered, climate change poses significant challenges to human security in Asia in the
coming decades. Policymakers and investors have the chance to step in and manage risk factors by creating spaces
for regional to local mitigation and adaptation strategies in order to prevent potential escalation of conflicts.

Migration
Rising temperatures, reductions in water availability, as well as an increasing frequency and severity of disaster
events are already causing human displacement – a trend that could be aggravated by future climate impacts. The
depreciation and degradation of natural resources through climate change threatens to lead to an increase in rural
poverty and migration to cities, which will, in turn, add to the growth of informal settlements. Cities, as a result, will
be vulnerable to both global climate events, due to their reliance on global supply chains, and local disasters, due to
the vulnerability of the makeshift settlements that migrants often inhabit in urban slums. While a 2°C temperature
rise will already lead to moderate risks in some regions, a 4°C increase could trigger severe disruptions of ecosystem
services vital to the Asian economy. This could lead to humanitarian disasters in many nations and result in
unmanageable migration surges, or locked-in populations.

Cities
The challenges confronting the fast-growing Asian cities with regard to climate change are twofold: (i) many of
them will be affected by the consequences of global warming, and (ii) they are part of the problem, as they emit a
disproportionate amount of greenhouse gases largely due to the concentration of human activities in urban areas.
Already today, the number of hot days in cities is twice as high as in the hinterland. By the end of the 21st century,
this number could be 10 times higher.

Supply Chains
Disruption in supply chains caused by extreme weather events can propagate through the globalized trade network.
Since Asia’s industries are particularly highly interlinked, extreme events in Asia can have strong repercussions
within the region as well as in the rest of the world. Conversely, Asia’s production and consumption can suffer from
events outside the region.
Tailored adaptation plans need to be developed by both private and public sectors to enhance the resilience to such
shock cascades. These plans also necessitate cooperation among many countries in Asia. Further research on
adaptation measures to be taken by different stakeholders is critically important to support such collective action.

Health
Climate change poses a significant risk to human health in Asia and the Pacific, threatening to reverse many of the
health improvements that have been achieved in the past decades. The World Health Organization (WHO) recently
estimated approximately 16,000 annual deaths among children below 15 years of age, and 26,000 annual deaths in
small children below 5 years of age related to under-nutrition (stunting), attributable to climate change in the 2030s
across the Asia and Pacific region. These estimates would be: 8,000 for diarrheal diseases and 21,000 for
undernutrition (stunting), respectively, in the 2050s. According to the same assessment, regional heat-related deaths
among the elderly (over 65 years) are thought to increase by approximately 20,000 cases due to climate change by
the 2030s and approximately 52,000 cases by the 2050s. Attributable mortality related to vector-borne diseases
(malaria and dengue) are estimated to be on the order of 3,000 annual deaths in the 2030s and 10,000 annual deaths
in the 2050s. Yet, these estimates only represent a small portion of the climate impacts on human health to be
expected because many known climate-sensitive health outcomes have so far been omitted from existing analysis.

The findings of this report highlight the severity of consequences of unabated climate change in Asia. While the
climate impacts under the Paris consensus scenario of a temperature increase between 1.5°C and 2°C will pose
significant challenges to the region, it is clear that the BAU scenario would render efforts to adapt Asia’s population
and economy to this new climatic regime ineffective. Because the coming decade is crucial for implementing
adequate mitigation measures to deliver on the Paris Agreement, investments leading to a rapid decarbonization of
the Asian economy have to receive high priority. At the same time, adaptation measures to protect the most
vulnerable populations of the region need to be implemented. While pilot projects of renewable energy and
technological innovation in urban infrastructure and transport need to spearhead this transformation, the
consideration of mitigation and adaptation has to be mainstreamed into macro-level regional development strategies
and micro-level project planning in all sectors. This would not only contribute to managing climate change risks for
Asia and the Pacific, but also provide opportunities for directing regional economies toward a low-carbon and
climate-resilient pathway.

Highlights on Pakistan
1. Pakistan is among the top ten countries to be affected most by the climate change, and a business-as-usual
approach to climate change will be disastrous for Pakistan.
2. In August 2010, Pakistan experienced record-breaking floods inundating an area the size of England, affecting 20
million people and causing 1,800 direct fatalities. Countless cases of infectious diseases were reported in the
affected areas in the weeks and months following the floods.
3. People whose livelihoods depend on agriculture will be immediately affected by changes in the natural
environment. For example, the vulnerability of farmers in Punjab to climate-related risks was aggravated by already
existing constraints on available freshwater, access to income, and a fragile infrastructure.
4. Pakistan’s megacity Karachi has experienced rapid population growth, whereas basic infrastructure has not been
adequately expanded. Therefore, the urban poor are affected by disease, poor water supply, a lack of sanitation, as
well as food and physical insecurity.
5. Climate change impacts of rising sea levels, combined with the Karachi’s social geography, will increase social
disorder and political instability by putting further pressure on the impoverished population.
6. Melting glaciers in the north of Pakistan result in additional river flooding. Precipitation patterns have become
more difficult to predict as a result of extreme climate anomalies. While precipitation in Pakistan has always
experienced large-scale variability, the past few decades have shown a significant increase in both dry and wet
spells, with northern Pakistan experiencing a significant decline in rainfall, notably during the winter season,
whereas the southern Indus Delta has seen a moderate increase in rainfall, which mainly results from frequent local
heavy precipitation spells.
7. Climate change could impact the variability of the monsoon and lead to changes in the intensity and timing of
precipitation. This would further aggravate the water stress already present in the region today.
Courtesy: Asian Development Ban

As Climate Changes, Southern States Will Suffer

More Than Others
June 30, 2017 Daily Articles Leave a comment
By: BRAD PLUMER and NADJA POPOVICH
As the United States confronts global warming in the decades ahead, not all states will suffer equally. Maine may
benefit from milder winters. Florida, by contrast, could face major losses, as deadly heat waves flare up in the
summer and rising sea levels eat away at valuable coastal properties.

In a new study in the journal Science, researchers analyzed the economic harm that climate change could inflict on
the United States in the coming century. They found that the impacts could prove highly unequal: states in the
Northeast and West would fare relatively well, while parts of the Midwest and Southeast would be especially hard
hit.

In all, the researchers estimate that the nation could face damages worth 0.7 percent of gross domestic product per
year by the 2080s for every 1 degree Fahrenheit rise in global temperature. But that overall number obscures wide
variations: The worst-hit counties — mainly in states that already have warm climates, like Arizona or Texas —
could see losses worth 10 to 20 percent of G.D.P. or more if emissions continue to rise unchecked.

“The reason for that is fairly well understood: A rise in temperatures is a lot more damaging if you’re living in a
place that’s already hot,” said Solomon Hsiang, a professor of public policy at the University of California,
Berkeley, and a lead author of the study.

“You see a similar pattern internationally, where countries in the tropics are more heavily impacted by climate
change,” he said. “But this is the first study to show that same pattern of inequality in the United States.”
The greatest economic impact would come from a projected increase in heat wave deaths as temperatures soared,
which is why states like Alabama and Georgia would face higher risks while the cooler Northeast would not. If
communities do not take preventative measures, the projected increase in heat-related deaths by the end of this
century would be roughly equivalent to the number of Americans killed annually in auto accidents.

Higher temperatures could also lead to steep increases in energy costs in parts of the country, as utilities may need to
overbuild their grids to compensate for heavier air-conditioning use in hot months. Labor productivity in many
regions is projected to suffer, especially for outdoor workers in sweltering summer heat. And higher sea levels along
the coasts would make flooding from future hurricanes far more destructive.

The authors avoided delving into politics, but they warned that “climate change tends to increase pre-existing
inequality.” Some of the poorest regions of the country could see the largest economic losses, particularly in the
Southeast. That pattern would hold even if the world’s nations cut emissions drastically, though the overall
economic losses would be considerably lower.

Predicting the costs of climate change is a fraught task, one that has bedeviled researchers for years. They have to
grapple with uncertainty involving population growth, future levels of greenhouse-gas emissions, the effect of those
emissions on the Earth’s climate and the economic damage higher temperatures may cause.

Previous economic models have been relatively crude, focusing on broad global impacts. The new study, led by the
Climate Impact Lab, a group of scientists, economists and computational experts, took advantage of a wealth of
recent research on how high temperatures can cripple the economy. And the researchers harnessed advances in
computing to scale global climate models down to individual counties in the United States.

“Past models had only looked at the United States as a single region,” said Robert E. Kopp, a climate scientist at
Rutgers and a lead author of the study. “They missed this entire story of how climate change would create this large
transfer of wealth between states.”

There are still limitations to the study. It relies heavily on research showing how hot weather has caused economic
losses in the past. But society and technology will change a lot over the next 80 years, and people may find novel
ways to adapt to steadily rising temperatures, said Robert S. Pindyck, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology who was not involved with this study.

Urban planners could set up cooling centers during heat waves to help vulnerable people who lack air-conditioning,
as France did after a heat wave killed 14,802 people in 2003. Farmers may adopt new crop varieties or shift planting
patterns to cope with the rise in scorching heat.

Notably, the model also does not account for the effects of future migration within the United States. If Arizona
becomes unbearable because of rising temperatures, more people may decide to move to states like Oregon or
Montana, which would largely escape intolerable heat waves and could even see an increase in agricultural
production. Such migration could reduce the country’s overall economic losses, said Matthew E. Kahn, an
economist at the University of Southern California.

Other outside experts praised the study, but cautioned that it may have underestimated certain kinds of damages.
Economic losses on the coasts could be far higher if ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland disintegrate faster than
expected. And climate change could bring other calamities that are harder to tally, such as the loss of valuable
ecosystems like Florida’s coral reefs, or increased flows of refugees from other countries facing their own climate
challenges.

The study also does not factor in how reduced labor productivity could compound over time, leading to slower rates
of economic growth, said Frances C. Moore, a climate expert at the University of California, Davis.

The researchers at the lab plan to expand their model to include more possible impacts and provide a detailed view
of what individual counties can expect, so policymakers can begin to prepare far in advance.

“That’s the hope, that this research can help prevent many of these outcomes,” said Trevor Houser, a co-author of
the paper who helps direct the Climate Impact Lab. “If cities take action to prevent heat wave deaths by building
cooling centers, then costs would be lower than we project. But I wouldn’t see that as a failure of prediction —
that’s a policy success.”

Source: https://www.nytimes.com

A Trumpian Assault on Climate Change

May 4, 2017 Int'l Affairs, May 2017 Leave a comment
Assessing the Impacts of “Executive Order on Energy
Independence”
The tumultuous first months of Trump administration have brought a flurry
of changes to US environmental policy. The latest episode came on March 28
when President Trump signed the “Executive Order on Promoting Energy
Independence and Economic Growth,” which reconsiders many
environmental regulations established during Obama’s time in office,
unwinding his predecessor’s environmental policies with the stroke of a pen.
By signing the order, Trump has reiterated his campaign promise to bring
back energy industry jobs while bolstering arguments made by climate
change opponents. Apparently, this is another Trumpian effort to buoy the
struggling coal industry but, in effect, it’s a devastating blow to
environmental advocates. This article is aimed at highlighting the various
ramifications of the order.

US’ Role in Paris Agreement

Although the executive order did not contain any directions on withdrawal of the United States from the Paris
Climate Agreement, which was signed by 174 countries and the European Union yet there are widespread
speculations that Trump’s rollback on the Clean Power Plan is America’s first step toward reversing its commitment
to the Agreement. Officially, the Trump administration has yet to decide whether it intends to withdraw from the
international roadmap for addressing climate change. That said, Mr Trump’s order could make it more difficult,
though not impossible, for the US to achieve its carbon reduction goals. Without the involvement of the US, which
is the world’s second-biggest polluter behind China, the pact could fall apart.

Some of the “job-killing regulations” President Trump has cancelled include a three-year moratorium on new coal
mines on federal land and rules limiting methane emissions from oil and gas plants. These are measures President
Obama put in place to combat climate change and help America meet the commitments it made in Paris in
December 2015. It is also important to note that unless there are major advances in technology, it will be difficult for
the United States to meet its commitments under Paris without using rules similar to the current regulations.

US’ National Security

Recently, the US Secretary of Defense James Mattis asserted that climate change is real, and a threat to American
interests abroad and the Pentagon’s assets everywhere. In unpublished written testimony provided to the Senate
Armed Services Committee after his confirmation hearing in January, Mattis said that it was incumbent on the US
military to consider how changes like open-water routes in the thawing Arctic and drought in global trouble spots
can pose challenges for troops and defence planners. He also stressed that it was a real-time issue, not some distant
what-if. He asserted, “Climate change is impacting stability in areas of the world where our troops are operating
today … [it] can be a driver of instability and the Department of Defense must pay attention to potential adverse
impacts generated by this phenomenon.”

Refugee Crisis
Trump’s anti-environmental agenda will hasten and worsen the climate crisis, which will displace hundreds of
millions of people from their homes in coming decades. This agenda will directly accelerate the onset of climate-
related rising sea levels, drought and disasters that will make many regions uninhabitable in the near future. The
ocean will swallow up whole island nations and coastal communities, from the atolls of the Pacific to the shorelines
of Florida and Alaska. Meanwhile, desert areas like Dubai, Eastern Africa and the American Southwest will suffer
historic droughts. Most experts agree that by 2050, we’ll see a staggering 200 million people displaced by the
climate crisis. Some fear that as many as 1 billion will be forced to move. For perspective, in 2016, 65.3 million
people were displaced by all causes from their homes.

Rise of the Coal

The order is intended to make coal competitive again in the US economy, by re-fossilizing the US power sector and
demonstrably increasing carbon emissions. It will, among other things, rescind the moratorium on coal mining on
US federal lands and initiate a review — or more rightly dismantling — of the Clean Power Plan initiative. The
resumption of federal coal leasing won’t boost short-term coal production. It won’t slow, much less halt, the
ongoing decline in coal mining jobs, or affect the price of electricity. It will do nothing for the coal miners to whom
Trump has so vigorously pandered. Like much of Trump’s record so far, it is almost comically plutocratic policy
smeared with a thick sheen of populist rhetoric.

Dismantling of Clean Power Plan

Dismantling the CPP would put the US on a higher pollution and less ambitious emissions track in the medium term.
The CPP targeted a roughly 32 percent decrease in CO2 emissions from the power sector by 2030, primarily from
accelerating the long-term shift away from coal-fired electricity generation. In addition to having impacts on the US
economy and health, removing the CPP would imply a costly delay in implementing what in the long run will be
necessary to effect reductions in our overall greenhouse gas emissions over time. In addition, the approach in the
CPP was developed over many years of consultation with industry, health advocates, states, and other stakeholders.
While it would impact coal it did provide a reasonable approach to reducing the most harmful emissions and
steering the economy toward a sounder energy system for the future.

Dismantling the CPP would have an effect on the overall US climate strategy and will make it harder and more
expensive to achieve the necessary levels of greenhouse gas emissions in the longer term.
 Conclusion
Trumps’ Executive Order is tantamount to ceding American leadership in the international campaign to curb the
dangerous heating of the planet. Other players, including big emitters like China, the European Union, and India, are
aware of Trump’s stance on climate and will not be surprised by this action: most countries have committed to
continuing to pursue their own climate goals, in part because they view doing so as good for their own domestic
politics and economies. Nevertheless, such a retreat from responsibility by the world’s second-largest emitter of
greenhouse gases represents an obstacle to the ambitious global goals for climate stabilization set out in recent years.
While it is possible that some countries may in turn weaken their own ambition as a result, so far it appears that
many have decided to continue to push forward. Nevertheless, the long-term success of the global approach to
climate change, based on the Paris Agreement, depends on continued broad engagement to encourage a cycle of
positive action. Trump’s approach threatens to break this cycle.

10 Obama Regulations Trump Scrapped

1. A 2016 Obama memorandum identifying climate change as a national security issue, and directing the
Pentagon and other agencies to “ensure that climate change-related impacts are fully considered in the
development of national security doctrine, policies, and plans.”

2. A 2015 Obama executive order requiring agencies to take steps to reduce their energy consumption fossil
fuels, with a goal of a 40% reduction in greenhouse gases produced by the federal government.

3. A 2013 Obama executive order directing federal agencies to prepare for and mitigate the effects of climate
change, including “an increase in prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, more heavy downpours, an
increase in wildfires, more severe droughts, permafrost thawing, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise.”

4. he Clean Power Plan, an ambitious rule that attempted to set a national limit on carbon emissions from
existing power plants. That rule has already been temporarily held up by the Supreme Court. If not already struck
down by the courts, the Environmental Protection Agency would have to go through a new rule-making process
to seek comments on any new rule dismantling the Obama policy.

5. The new plant rule, another component of the Clean Power Plan that addresses new power plants. It, too,
would be subject to a new rule-making process.

6. The consideration of the social cost of greenhouse gases and climate change in conducting environmental
impact assessments, expanding the scope of the National Environmental Policy Act. That policy change came in a
guidance document from the White House Council on Environmental Quality last August, and can be
immediately rescinded.

7. The moratorium on coal mining on federal and tribal lands. This change doesn’t require a new regulation
and can be implemented immediately.

8. A 2016 regulation from the EPA limiting methane emissions from the oil and gas industry. Like all final
regulations, the Trump administration would have to start the regulatory process from the beginning in order to
rescind the rule.
9. A similar rule from the Bureau of Land Management limiting “venting, flaring and leaking” on oil and gas
wells on federal lands, which would also be reviewed for possible repeal.

10. The BLM’s hydraulic fracturing rule, which tightened standards on gas-well construction, governed the
disposal of fracking waste and required disclosure on the fracking chemicals used. That rule has also been held up
in court, but would require a new rule-making process to be formally taken off the books.

Combating Climate Change in PAKISTAN

February 7, 2017 February 2017, Pak Affairs Leave a comment

In the recent years, climate change has emerged as a bigger

threat to Pakistan than terrorism, but still there is little
realisation of it at public and government levels. Global warming
is to inflict more harm than any other problem but it is not at the
priority of the government while masses continue to struggle to
remain afloat. Floods cause losses of trillions of rupees besides
leaving thousands homeless and jobless. Moreover, melting
glaciers, reducing water table, ill-timed rains and drought in
Thar and Balochistan are some of the manifestations of climate
change that has taken heavy toll on masses and economy.
Since its inception in 1947, Pakistan has been grappling with numerous crises, ranging from infrastructure woes to
terrorism, which still are damaging the country’s economy as well as living conditions of the masses. However, in
the present time, a potentially devastating danger that is lurking in the shadows is climate change. As the adverse
impacts of global warming continue to grow, the political and economic instability it may accrue pose a threat to
Pakistan’s security.

But, even more perplexing is that Pakistani government has not prioritized its response to climate change in order to
mitigate environmental threats and prevent future calamities. Much like the government, the Pakistani people also
find it difficult to pay due attention to this global phenomenon. The indifference on the part of Pakistanis can be
seen from the fact that in 2007-2008, a survey found that only 34 percent of Pakistanis were aware of climate
change, and only 24 percent considered it a serious threat.

However, this perception is changing as global warming starts to impact everyday life. Over the past several years,
Pakistanis have witnessed, firsthand, the devastating effects of climate change. Catastrophic floods displaced
millions, and severe droughts in Thar and Balochistan portend the damage global warming can cause. The frequency
of those floods has increased over the last five years, due to melting glaciers and heavy rainfall. Karachi, Pakistan’s
most populous metropolis and the country’s financial hub, suffered a heat wave so severe that it devoured almost
1,200 people. These recent disasters could account for the change in public opinion from the abovementioned survey
to the situation in 2015, when Pakistan joined the list of 19 countries where the majority of the population considers
climate change a top global threat.
Although there is a National Climate Change Policy in place — which itself took several years to take shape and
finally came about in 2012 — unfortunately that has been shelved into the darkest forgotten crevice of government
building. Government’s indifference is further highlighted by the fact that it appointed a full-time Minister for
Climate Change only a couple of weeks before the 2015 Climate Summit in Paris (COP21). This reflects upon the
hurried and poor planning that went into the preparation of the conference. Furthermore, a very brief speech by PM
Nawaz Sharif at COP21, which was attended by policymakers from more than 190 countries whereby they pressed
for the rise in global temperatures to remain below two degrees centigrade, did not help much nor did it make the
case any stronger.

At a time when there is a growing consciousness about the need to combat climate change, the world leaders
adopted the Paris agreement, the first universal, legally-binding pact on tackling this global phenomenon. Delegates
to the summit went home with their respective programmes to honour the deal in the best way possible, which
provides the impetus for every nation to do more to confront the threat of global warming and build a low-carbon
future.

Although a signatory to the pact, Pakistan’s seriousness to pursue the ambitious agenda appears sorely lacking, as
many pieces of the bureaucratic machinery deployed to handle as delicate a job as environment are found missing.
Key departments connected to the Climate Change ministry are working without permanent heads for years, as
many senior posts in the ministry’s allied departments are either vacant or being held by officials from unrelated
fields. This state of affairs bespeaks our wavering commitment to handling environmental hazards.

The government needs to address this issue with sincerity, dedication and utmost seriousness. Only making national
policies, and not implementing them, will not serve the purpose.

The current state of affairs calls for serious efforts and commitment to put in every effort to mitigate the deleterious
effects of climate change where humanly possible. And what certainly is humanly possible is dedicating officials
well-versed in the field to the job of managing the environment. This will constitute only a small beginning, but will
certainly prove crucial to charting our path to a protected environment. A department such as the country’s
Environmental Protection Agency, if left headless, will mean giving a free hand to violators to further degrade the
environment and preclude the possibility of any action being taken against them. The Paris Climate Deal has set a
tall order and obligated nations to do much more. If Pakistan cannot begin putting its house in order by taking such
rudimentary steps as appointing officials to key environment-related posts, how it would brace for a harder
challenge?

 How women can help mitigate climate change?

In Pakistan women, who constitute the majority of the poor, are among the most vulnerable to the detrimental
impacts of climate change, particularly in rural areas. However, despite that, they are also vital to solutions to the
impact. When we talk about gender dimensions in the context of the impact of climate change, that is also a
recognition of the fact that climate change would affect women and men in different ways due to their different roles
with regard to use of natural resources, particularly forest and water.

Like in other parts of the world, women in rural Pakistan generally assume primary responsibility for collecting
water for drinking, cooking, washing, hygiene and raising livestock. On the other hand, men use water for irrigation,
livestock, farming and industries. These work-distributions connote that women and men often have divergent needs
and priorities as far as water use is concerned. This knowledge is quite significant in the context of climate change.

For instance, in drought-prone areas affected by desertification, time consumed by water-collection will increase, as
women will have to travel greater distances to find water. But this is the time that could be spent in school, earning
an income or participating in public/economic life. Walking long distances to fetch water can expose women to
different health issues and harassment or sexual assault. What is awful to observe is that women tend to be under-
represented in the decision-making on climate change at all levels in the country. This severely limits their ability to
contribute and implement initiatives for mitigation and adaptation to fight negative effects of the rapidly changing
weather patterns.

Women are predominantly responsible for food production, household water supply and wood-gathering for heating
and cooking. We cannot, however, afford to keep women away from the processes of planning and policy, and
decision-making meant for tackling the devastating impacts of climate change on different sectors of economy,
particularly agriculture, water and health.

There is a pressing need that the country’s planners, policy — and decision-makers realise and ensure that women
are an equal part of these very processes. It is imperative that contribution of women is adequately reflected in the
planning and decision-making processes aimed at building the climate resilience of the country through mitigation
and adaptation plans in all socioeconomic sectors. Moreover, women and gender experts should play their effective
part in collaboration with relevant government departments to ensure that they are well informed of the gendered
dimensions of climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, education and water.

In a nutshell, all segments of society need to unite for ending existing inequalities between men and women and the
ways climate change can exacerbate these inequalities.

Being important natural-resource-users, women have gained knowledge and developed coping strategies over the
years that give them a practical understanding of innovation and skills to adapt to the extreme weather events as well
as to contribute to the solution. Nonetheless, their knowledge to cope with climate risks or the impact of climate
variability on their own remains a largely untapped resource. However, utilising the practical knowledge women
have for the boosting of the resilience of a country’s climate, and making them key stakeholders in the planning and
decision-making processes for dealing with vagaries of climate change is indispensible.

Women are often grappled with difficulties when it comes to the general accessibility to financial resources,
capacity-building activities and technologies required for building climate-resilience or coping with the effects of
climate change. This often proves to be the roadblock in the way of women’s empowerment in general and their role
in relation to climate change adaptation and mitigation in particular.

Different international studies have highlighted that women are very vulnerable, and most likely to be
disproportionately affected by the adverse impact of climate change because they constitute the majority of the
underprivileged people anywhere in the world. Women’s traditional roles as the primary users and managers of
natural resources, primary caregivers and labourers engaged in unpaid labour mean they are involved in, and
dependent on, livelihoods and resources that are put most at risk by climate change.

We, however, need to approach gender and climate from many perspectives to ensure that women are present at all
levels and dimensions of climate change policy-making, strategising and action.

Desertification is rising due to water scarcity,

climate change`
January 16, 2017 Daily Articles Leave a comment

ISLAMABAD: Due to the scarcity of water and climate change, desertification of land is increasing across the
country each year and the level of underground water is also dropping.
Various stakeholders on Friday gathered at the Ministry of Climate Change to devise a strategy to stop
desertification and make barren land fertile.

Desertification is the process by which fertile land becomes a desert, typically as a result of drought, deforestation
and inappropriate agriculture practices.

Chairing the meeting, Secretary Ministry of Climate Change, Syed Abu Ahmed Akif emphasised on the importance
of combating desertification and land degradation in Pakistan and appreciated the UNDP`s programme for making
800,000 hectares of barren land fertile by 2020 in collaboration with theMinistry of Climate Change, provincial
governments and local communities.

The UNDP`s programme is titled Sustainable Land Management Programme (SLMP) and in 2015, a Programme
Steering Committee was established to monitor the programme.

`Better management of land resources through this program will go a long way in poverty reduction, better
livelihood, food security and improved ecosystems in the country,` Mr Akif said.

Joint Secretary Ishrat Ali told the meeting that the programme is introducing modern approaches and advanced
technology in those areas of Pakistan which were affected by land degradation and those which are at risk of
desertification.

Talking to Dawn, SLMP National Coordinator, Hamid Marwat, who participated in the meeting said that the
problem was particularly acute in a number of places including Chakwal, Khushab, Bakkar,Lakki Marwat, DI Khan,
Tharparkar, Sanghar, Umerkot, Pishin, Killa Abdullah, Lasbela and other areas.

`Drinking water is not available in these areas and the underground water table has dropped to 1,000 feet. The water
level further decreases due to boring and after some time, boring does not work either,` he said.

`We have decided to establish small dams in 14 districts and store rain water throughout the year.

Moreover, ef forts are being made to facilitate agriculture and provide employment, otherwise people start cutting
trees to sell,` he added.

Mr Marwat said deforestation will further increase problems and stressed on the need for establishing more dams
and increasing the capacity of existing ones as that of the Tarbela Dam was increased by almost 25pc due to
siltation.

He said local communities are also being encouraged to plant saplings.

Climate change and national security

January 4, 2017 Daily Articles Leave a comment
By Raashid Wali Janjua

Climate change and its concomitant natural disasters pose a clear danger to national security in the present era of the
hyper-utilisation of natural resources in the unbridled pursuit of industrial development.

The developed industrialised haves – having appropriated the fruits of development – are not ready to render a
yeoman’s service to the environment through ‘carbon sacrifice’ despite offering anodyne sops to the agitated global
community of environment conservationists. China, India, and several East Asian nations view climate control
efforts through carbon emission caps as attempts by the developed north to stymie the growth of industrial aspirants.
The devastating impact of global warming has already popped out of jeremiad fiction books and movies and
assumed the center stage of human existence.
A foretaste of the devastation wrought natural disasters induced by climate change was experienced by the strongest
and the richest country in the world in 2005, in the shape of Hurricane Katrina. The natural disaster destroyed most
of New Orleans, causing a loss of $80 billion, killing 1,800 people and displacing 270,000 others. The American
populace watched the scenes of devastation and the wrath of nature in bewilderment as more than 72,000 troops
grappled with the rescue and rehabilitation operation in what looked like a third world humanitarian disaster relief
operation. After the harrowing experience, the US national security establishment woke up to the sobering
realisation of securitising the climate-induced natural disasters. According to Joshua W Busby, the US National
Security Strategy directed the Department of Defence in 2006 to plan for “deadly pandemics and other natural
disasters that can produce WMD-like effects”.

Climate change and ensuing natural disasters threaten national cohesion and stability of densely populated nations
with internal politico-economic cleavages, such as Indonesia and Bangladesh. In Indonesia, the weak handling of the
situation after the 2004 tsunami that devastated Aceh, fueled anti-government feelings, resulting in the
destabilisation of the region. In Bangladesh, the tardy disaster relief response by West Pakistan in 1971 fuelled
separatism. Presently, 46 percent of the Bangladesh’s population lives in low-elevation areas near the sea with many
living in settlements less than five metres above the sea level. With a population of 12.6 million, Dhaka is one of the
most vulnerable cities where a tsunami could cause millions of deaths and send many people into exile. Most of the
Sub-Saharan countries, such as Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Darfur region of Sudan are highly vulnerable to the
effects of climate change. In these areas, the governments’ capacity to tackle climate-induced famines, droughts,
disease, and floods is extremely limited.

Pakistan today is confronted with some serious climate change threats due to global warming, changes in the ocean
current patterns, delayed monsoons, floods, heat waves, and lately, droughts. The impact of these factors on human
security – especially food security – makes climate change one of the most potent threats to our national security.
With one of the most rapidly increasing populations in the world, India and Pakistan are making heavy demands on
the already dwindling fresh water resources in the Subcontinent. The possibilities of water wars as a result of the
upper riparian’s (India) water heist presents a frightening scenario for one of the most heavily nuclear armed regions
of the world. It is time both countries took stock of their real threats and stopped tilting at the windmills of self-
manufactured political threats. Together, India and Pakistan need to tame the demons which are challenging the very
survival of the human race in South Asia due to global warming and its deleterious weather effects.

Let us take stock of the threats of climate change confronting us and our current response. Pakistan is confronted
with threats such as flash floods, glacial lakes outbursts and famines – especially in Thar and Balochistan. Droughts,
freakish rainfall, heat waves, and rising sea levels are also prevalent in the country. These natural phenomena are
being facilitated by man-made assaults on the environment. Massive deforestation and mangrove destruction is
causing soil erosion, landslides, the silting up of water reservoirs, and the destruction of the coastal ecosystem. Our
mangrove forest cover – the first line of defence against sea intrusion – was 400,000 hectares in 1945 and has shrunk
to 70,000 hectares, exposing our coast to sea intrusion and soil erosion. Port Qasim’s coal-based energy projects
have displaced a sizeable segment of our coastal population and destroyed valuable mangroves, rendering our coast
more vulnerable to floods and tsunamis.

An IMF study shows that Pakistan as the third most water-stressed country in the world with a per capita water
availability of 1,017 cubic metres. At the time of independence, Pakistan’s per capita water availability was around
5,600 cubic metres, which put us in the category of water-abundant countries. From being water-abundant to water-
stressed, it has been a sorry saga of neglect and myopia for Pakistan. After Tarbela, our failure to construct any big
reservoir has resulted in the present water scarcity. According to the World Resources Institute, Pakistan has the
lowest water withdrawal to supply ratio – 80 percent among South Asian countries, including Afghanistan and
Bangladesh. India, with which we compete in all spheres, has 33 percent of its water supply stored in reservoirs
while we have only managed to store a paltry nine percent. With some 36 million acre-feet (MAF) water lost to the
sea annually, Pakistan – based on population projections – will find itself in a deficit of 151 MAF by the year 2025.

Pakistan needs to curtail the unsustainably high use of water due to water-intensive crops. These include sugarcane,
which is mostly controlled by a politically influential sugar industry lobby. With more water being pumped from the
aquifers than is being recharged, Pakistan confronts the threats of desertification and food insecurity in the future.
The impact of delayed winters and heat waves in the summer due to changes in global weather is also wreaking
havoc on our cropping patterns, especially in rain-fed (barani) areas. A heat wave in Russia in 2010 resulted in 40
percent reduction in grain production. We should also be ready for such eventualities as with the increasing
population, the dwindling water resources, the increased frequency of floods, and the freakish heat waves, our
human security is seriously imperiled.

It is time we jettisoned our military-centric view of the national security and started paying more attention to the real
threats that imperil our national security in the shape of environmental destruction and natural calamities. It is time
India and Pakistan buried the resource-guzzling hatchet of the nuclear and conventional arms race and took the
raging bull of climate threat by its horns. The time has come for a Track-II initiative between both countries for joint
water resource conservation, watershed management, and environment control.

The writer is a PhD scholar at Nust.

Email: rwjanj@hotmail.com

Changing minds for climate change

December 20, 2016 Daily Articles Leave a comment

By Nasir Ali Panhwar

Changing minds for climate change was the title of four day international conference organised by the Pakistan-US
Alumni Network (PUAN) in Islamabad recently. PUAN is the alumni network of the students and professionals,
who have participated in US government sponsored exchange programmes. With more than 19,000 alumni across
Pakistan, PUAN is one of the largest alumni networks in the world. PUAN regularly organises events across
Pakistan, including service projects, leadership training, roundtable discussions, and community engagement
activities.
The conference brought together climate change professionals, activists, students, teachers, and policymakers, to
share knowledge and experiences. More than 250 alumni of US government-sponsored exchange programs from
across Pakistan and South, Central and East Asia gathered in Islamabad for the event, which was jointly sponsored
by the US Embassy in Islamabad, US Educational Foundation in Pakistan and PUAN. Senator Mushahid Hussain
Sayed, Secretary Senate Standing Committee on Climate Change, Samina Baig, Pakistan’s first female to summit
Mount Everest and the Seven Summits attended the conference’s opening ceremony to kick off a program of
interactive workshops, panel sessions, keynote speeches, and community outreach events. Senator Mushahid
Hussain Sayed in his remarks said that, he is the voice of climate change in parliament. He suggested that “siachen
should be converted into Peace Park, as both neighbouring countries are heavily spending their resources over
there.”

American ambassador to Pakistan David Hale addressing the conference participants said, that “No country can
tackle climate change alone, we must all work together. Governments and scientists, businesspeople and civil
society must harness every aspect of a nation’s resources to address this global crisis.” The US, along with partner
nations around the world including Pakistan, is working to reach common ground on the climate agenda.  Notably,
Pakistan has recently made great progress on the path to adopting the Paris Agreement, he said. Pakistan has also
agreed to an amendment to curb greenhouse gases (hydro fluorocarbons/HFCs). Moreover, the US and Pakistan are
working together to encourage private sector investment in new clean energy generation (such as wind, solar, and
hydro) through technical assistance, grants for transmission infrastructure, and financing.

Pakistan’s vulnerability to adverse impacts of climate change is well established and widely recognized. Despite
Pakistan’s diminutive contribution to global GHG emissions, it is among the top ten most climate affected countries
of the world, as indicated by the Global Climate Risk Index developed by Germanwatch. Moreover, these adverse
impacts of climate change are not in the distant future but are imminent. Indeed, these are already occurring as
Pakistan has started suffering with ever-increasing frequency and ferocity of climate-induced catastrophes. Studies
and assessments undertaken by the National Disaster Management Authority show that extreme climate events
between 1994 and 2013 have resulted in an average annual economic loss of almost US dollars 4 billion. The last
five floods (2010-2014) have resulted in monetary losses of over US$ 18 billion with 38.12 million people affected,
3.45 million houses damaged and 10.63 million acres of crops destroyed. Likewise, over 1200 people lost their lives
due to the unprecedented heat wave in Karachi in 2015.

The conference coincided with ratification of the Paris Agreement by Pakistan.  Adoption of the Paris Agreement
has further reinforced the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework on Climate Change and has provided
a framework for its realisation in a more intense manner with a long term perspective. The global consensus on
limiting temperature increase to below 2 degrees Centigrade is an endorsement of the scientific conclusions reached
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and provides safeguards for vulnerable regions and countries of
the world from irreversible adverse consequences. In doing so, the urgent need for undertaking adaptation measures
by all groups of countries has also been underscored. Moreover, it needs to be recognised that without provision of
adequate finance, technology development and transfer and capacity building, the consequences for developing
countries are likely to remain catastrophic.

According to the World Wildlife Fund, by 2040 up to ten per cent of Pakistan’s agricultural output would be
affected by climate change. Global warming could not only make it more difficult to produce crops, the reduction in
crop yields could also push food prices up, adding to the miseries of the bottom 40 per cent of the population.
Besides disasters, unprecedented floods could play havoc with agriculture. Being one of the most climate change
vulnerable countries in the world, Pakistan’s economy is already under severe strain from prevailing and likely
future threats of climate change. Adverse climate related impacts are draining public funds from essential social
requirements towards disaster management.

Climate change knows no boundaries. Changing minds of policy makers from Islamabad to Washington is
imperative and no one can afford further delay to address imminent threat from climate change. Hence, the response
has to be transnational. Learning from global and regional experience is crucial in this regard. For instance,
Bangladesh is considered as adaptation capital of the world, which offers huge opportunities to region for climate
change adaptation.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 20th, 2016.

The Future of Oil, Electrical-Vehicles, Climate

Change and Alternative Energy
August 4, 2016 August 2016, Int'l Affairs Leave a comment
That the oil age shall not be over because of the exiguity of oil just as the stone-age didn’t end due to the shortage of
stones is a phrase which is being used as an opening line, of late, for many of the editorials and articles sprinkled
along the vast expanses of World Wide Web. The recent seismic shifts in Saudi Arabia’s policy and the hanging of
boots by the octogenarian oil minister, Ali Al-Naimi, are signs of a future that bodes uncertainty for oil market.
Algeria felt the tremors and its oil minister was replaced. In other developments, rig count has risen dramatically and
the air has started to become heavy with future supply concerns owing to the cut in E&P projects and the sanguine
expectation of a surge in demand.

This ‘uncertainty and amendments’ in the oil market when married with the proliferation of technology begets the
child of “new energy era” punctuated with bio-fuels, electrical cars and new government regulations.

The oil crisis now seems to unfold and investors and markets are now looking, with squinting eyes, into the future
and they can see an olio of energy catering the needs of the world. This article will focus on three things: How
electrical vehicles are going to affect (or not) the consumption of the one of the biggest consumers of oil i.e.
transport sector, then we’ll delve into the ifs and buts of alternative energy and its global share in the upcoming
decades while studying the policy support these new energies will get due to climate change issues.

Electrical Vehicles
Major oil companies like Shell, BP and Chevron have released their Energy Outlooks for the future and after
perusing them in detail one can be sure that most of the oil firms do not see electrical vehicles (hereinafter EVs)
jeopardizing their market share. BP’s recent Energy Outlook for 2035 says that non-oil transport will grow “just 5
percent” per year for the next 20 years. “Outlook for Energy: A view to 2040” published by ExxonMobil sees the
share for EVs only to be 4 percent after 20 years. Chevron also reciprocates the same thoughts. There are few things,
however, to consider. First of all the growth of EVs is inevitable but the time span it will take to penetrate the
market is the main question. Also, the rate at which people adapt to these new cars is another question. EVs may be
successful in the US or West but the inherent difference of mindsets in Middle East and the very compatibility of
these vehicles with the infrastructure and roads is another issue. As of now, load-shedding, crass roads and wanton
traffic mark the fate of EVs in negative. It is also important to recall here that the eastern side of the world is host to
two of the biggest countries by population — China and India. Moreover, speed is yet another issue. Purchasing
power, too, is very pertinent. Tesla’s new model was able to lure thousands of advance bookings but the total cost of
this car is $325,000 which when translated into, say PKR or IR, amounts to a figure which is yonder the income of
an average household. As transport counts for almost 50 percent of global oil consumption any development in this
sector is certainly going to change the face of oil industry. According to the IEO 2016 of EIA the non-OECD nations
are going to overtake OECD and by 2040; it is expected to account for 61% of global transportation energy
consumption. In these countries, which comprise 80% of the world’s population, energy demand is also expected to
increase.

Alternative Energy
Before taking a plunge into the sea of different substitutes to crude oil, it is better to have a coup d’oeil at its current
consumption by different sectors of economy. Transport and power generation are the biggest sectors which
consume most of the oil. In a report entitled “Oil market to 2030 — Implications for Investment and Policy,” the
researchers point out that the global share of bio-fuels will reach to almost 18 percent by 2030. Oil companies
should, then, venture to diversify their operations in the wake of a changing energy scenario but the current deficit in
their cash due to the falling oil prices may impede such a development. Again, there are many constraints; the first
one being the need to change oil companies’ gargantuan setups in order to diversify themselves. They will need to
divert Capex (capital expenditure) from the conventional drilling and exploration activity (which is worryingly
down already) and channel them to buy new machinery. Recently, in an interview with CNBC, the former CEO of
Shell, Mr John Hofmeister, said, “We are certainly going to have ICE-driven cars in 2050,” in an answer to question
pointing out the prevalence of other means of energy. Referring to a study carried under the Fuel Freedom
Foundation, he further said that he sees “roughly the same number of ICE-driven cars in US” after 30 or 40 years.
There’s going to be a combination. 30-40 million people will shift to other bio-fuels but keeping in account the
growth of population their share will be a small chunk. “In the first half of this century, I don’t see gasoline going
anywhere” he stressed. Again referencing to IEO 2016, ‘petroleum and other liquid fuels are the dominant source of
transportation although their share drops from 96 percent to 88 percent by 2040 — an abatement that suggests a very
insignificant difference.

Climate Change and Policy Support

The Paris Climate Deal, the first of its kind, documents some measures the implementation of which seems,
practically and economically, a far-fetched idea. The air is thick with talks of reducing carbon emissions (also of
pollution) and paring down the temperature of the earth by 2ºC. It is ironic to see the establishment of Arctic
Investment Protocol — which allows companies to explore oil in the Arctic while adhering to rules preventing the
natural habitat and environment of that region — just after the COP 21 was held. This also shows the seriousness
and influence the deal commands in the posterity. Recently, a fracking permit in UK has also been approved —
another development insinuating the significance of climate change and environment. The possibility of Fukushima-
and Chernobyl-like disasters puts the future of nuclear energy (non-carbon energy) into a precarious position as
countries like France, Germany and Switzerland are shying away from operating nuclear reactors.

On the other hand the CPP, Clean Power Plan rule, introduced by US Environmental Protection Energy (EPA) caters
for the rubric of policy support mentioned above. It aims to reduce GHG (greenhouse gas) and coal-related
emissions. Investors are also becoming cognizant of the effects of climate change as the recent vote in ExxonMobil
and Chevron on “whether or not to require shares of the respective companies to disclose their risks to
shareholders,” manifests. However, the result was negative but 41pc of Chevron investors and 38pc of Exxon
showed support for such a vote.

To conclude, it is safe to assume that petroleum shall continue to run the world’s factory. But as it (the world)
becomes “smart,” I would not be surprised to see bio-fuels, EV and other eco-friendly energy mix take over this
‘crude’ one.

Climate Change THE MOST DAUNTING

CHALLENGE OF OUR TIME
January 12, 2016 CSS Special, January 2016 Leave a comment
 Climate change is one of the defining issues of our time. It is now
more certain than ever, based on many lines of evidence, that humans are changing Earth’s climate. The atmosphere
and oceans have warmed, accompanied by sea-level rise, a strong decline in Arctic sea ice, and other climate-related
changes. These changes will have an enormous impact on our planet’s people, ecosystems, cities and energy use and
these effects will be felt most by the world’s poorest and most marginalised communities living in regions that are
susceptible to changes in the climate and whose livelihoods are dependent on natural resources.
The warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. Earth’s
average surface air temperature has increased by about 0.8°C (1.4°F) since 1900, with much of this increase taking
place since the mid-1970s. Although a wide range of other observations and indications together provide
incontrovertible evidence of global warming, the clearest evidence comes from the widespread thermometer records.

Previously, the year 1998 was the warmest and the 1990s the warmest decade on record. But, the year 2015 has
broken all records and almost every month of it was termed the warmest ever. This shows that the Earth has warmed
at an unprecedented rate over the last hundred years and particularly over the last two decades.

Exactly how much warmer the atmosphere gets will depend on how quickly and effectively people can substantially
reduce the activities that are causing rising temperatures.
There are two main causes of climate changes: natural and manmade. The Earth’s climate is affected by natural
factors such as changes in volcanic activity, solar output, and the Earth’s orbit. Human activities that most affect the
climate include the burning of fossil fuels and the conversion of land for forestry and agriculture.

The earth’s climate is dynamic and constantly changing through a natural

cycle. The natural variability and the climate fluctuations have always been part of the Earth’s history. Although
there are a number of natural factors responsible for climate change, some important of them are continental drift,
volcanoes, ocean currents, the earth’s tilt and comets and meteorites.
Nearly 250 million years ago, all the continents made one large land mass known as Pangea. Then they gradually
began to drift apart and formed the separate continents. The formation of separate continental land masses changed
the flow of ocean currents and winds, and isolated Antarctica. The position of continents and the continental drift
had an impact on the climate because it changed the physical features of the landmass, their position and the position
of water bodies. This drift of the continents continues even today; the Himalayan range is rising by about 1
millimeter every year because the Indian landmass is moving towards the Asian land mass, slowly but steadily.

Another natural cause of climate change is volcanic activitey. When a volcano erupts, it throws out large volumes of
sulphur dioxide (So2), water vapour, dust and ash into the atmosphere. Millions of tonnes of SO2 can reach the
upper levels of the atmosphere (stratosphere) from a major eruption. The gases and dust particles partially block the
incoming rays of the sun, leading to cooling. Volcanic eruptions of high magnitude can reduce the amount of solar
radiation reaching the Earth’s surface, lowering temperatures in the lower levels of the atmosphere (called the
troposphere), and changing atmospheric circulation patterns. Although the volcanic activity may last only a few
days, yet the large volumes of gases and ash can influence climatic patterns for years.

Beside these two, changes in earth’s orbit also cause changes in the climate. The earth makes one full orbit around
the sun each year. It is tilted at an angle of 23.5° to the perpendicular plane of its orbital path. For one half of the
year, when it is summer, the northern hemisphere tilts towards the sun. In the other half i.e. the winter, the earth is
tilted away from the sun. Changes in the tilt of the earth can affect the severity of the seasons.

In addition to these, the oceans are a major component of

the climate system. They cover about 71% of the Earth and absorb about twice as much of the sun’s radiation as the
atmosphere or the land surface. Ocean currents move vast amounts of heat across the planet. Since the oceans are
surrounded by land masses, therefore heat transport through water is through channels. Furthermore, ocean current
is one of the natural causes that effect climate change. The changes in ocean circulation will affect the climate
through the movement of carbon dioxide into or out of the atmosphere.
Climate change can also be caused by human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and the conversion of land
for forestry and agriculture. Since the Industrial Revolution, human influences on the climate system have increased
substantially. In addition to other environmental impacts, these activities change the land surface and emit various
substances to the atmosphere. These in turn can influence both the amount of incoming energy and the amount of
outgoing energy and can have both warming and cooling effects on the climate.  The overall effect of human
activities since the Industrial Revolution has been a warming effect, driven primarily by emissions of carbon dioxide
and other greenhouse gases.

The build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has led to an enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect.   It
is this human-induced enhancement of the greenhouse effect that is of concern because ongoing emissions of these
gases have the potential to warm the planet to levels that have never been experienced in the history of human
civilization. Such climate change could have far-reaching and/or unpredictable environmental, social, and economic
consequences.

In South Asia, flooding, food shortages, and stagnating economic growth are just some of the devastating impacts
that we may experience due to advancing climate change, according to the United Nations. The IPCC 4th
Assessment Report “Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability” states that climate change, in
particular, increased risk of floods and droughts, is expected to have severe impact on South Asian countries, the
economies of which rely mainly on agriculture, natural resources, forestry and fisheries sectors. The report’s
conclusions and projections thereupon are stark and sobering. Even under the most modest assumptions about
emissions growth, the future effects of climate change will be felt worldwide especially in South Asian countries —
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

These fears were

further reinforced by a long heat wave in Karachi that claimed hundreds of lives. Scientists have warned for some
time now that heat waves will become more frequent and intense due to climate change.
Another manifestation of it came when Nepal suffered a massive earthquake in April 2015 which killed over 9,000
people. This quake was the largest one in the region in the past 8 decades. Soon after the quake, a debate ensued that
it is the result of the climate change. The untold – and terrifying – story behind the earthquake reveals that it’s the
result of the ebb and flow of rainwater in the great river deltas of India and Bangladesh, and the pressure that puts on
the grinding plates that make up the surface of the planet. University College London’s Prof Bill McGuire, professor
emeritus of Geophysical and Climate Hazards, believes that “Climate change may play a critical role in triggering
certain faults in certain places where they could kill a hell of a lot of people.”
Moreover, torrential rains and the resultant heavy flooding recently submerged Chennai in India. In addition to loss
of human lives, three million people were left without basic services, the cost of which is estimated at more than
US$225 million. Indian premier, Narendra Modi, insisted: “We are seeing the impact of climate change now. The
unseasonal rains resulted in the floods in Tamil Nadu. We have witnessed heavy rains in non-monsoon weather.”

When it comes to mitigation efforts, we find that the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer
was first such effort. It designed to reduce the production and consumption of ozone — depleting substances in
order to reduce their abundance in the atmosphere, and thereby protect the earth’s fragile ozone Layer. The original
Montreal Protocol was agreed on 16 September 1987 and entered into force on 1 January 1989.

Considered a major multilateral success, the Protocol is persistently touted as the prime example of how well nations
can work together on global environmental issues. But why was it successful? The Montreal Protocol had the perfect
combination of factors: hegemons (US and UK) taking the lead, a short timeframe before the ozone was projected to
dissolve, a great mutuality of interests among the attending parties, and concentrated benefits with distributed costs.

The second big effort came when after two and a half years of intensive negotiations, a substantial extension to the
Convention was adopted in Kyoto, Japan on 11 December 1997 and it entered into force on 16 February 2005.
Under the Kyoto Protocol most developed nations other than the US committed themselves to targets for cutting or
slowing their emissions of the key greenhouse gases that cause climate change. The targets varied between nations.
Some were allowed to increase their emissions by a certain amount; others were required to make significant cuts.
The average target was a cut of around 5% relative to 1990 levels by 2012 (or more accurately 2008–12).

Another major effort on arresting climate change was seen in the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference,
or COP 21, that was held at Le Bourget, near Paris, in France from November 30 to December 11. After nearly two
weeks of tough haggling for a climate rescue pact, representatives of 195 nations reached a landmark accord that
will, for the first time, commit nearly every country to lowering planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions to help
stave off the most drastic effects of climate change.

Commenting on the agreement, United Nations Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, said:
“This is truly a historic moment. For the first time, we have a truly universal agreement on climate change, one of
the most crucial problems on earth.”
The agreement, if faithfully carried out, will achieve far larger cuts in emissions than any previous accord. It will
reduce, without eliminating, the risk that runaway climate change might render parts of the Earth uninhabitable. It
will lessen somewhat the possibility of a collapse of one of the ice sheets, which would cause a rise of 20 feet or
more in the sea.

Now, let’s discuss the possible effects of climate change.

 In 2014, the US Department of Defense published
the Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap, outlining defence and security issues in relation to climate change. The
department warned that climate change was a ‘threat multiplier,’ in that it stands to intensify already-acknowledged
security threats such as resource scarcity, disease, drought and displacement. Regions that are ill-equipped to handle
this onslaught of problems may be susceptible to the spread of extremism.
It’s no secret that climate change is expected to cause massive problems related to migration. People are already
beginning to seek refuge, with the world’s first climate refugees—a family from the Polynesian island nation of
Tuvalu — having been granted residency in New Zealand in 2014 due to rising tides. In 2014, a staggering nearly 60
million people sought refuge in other countries due to war, poverty, resource scarcity, natural disasters and other
problems, according to the UN Refugee Agency.

Besides creating a perplexing refugee crisis, the climate change phenomenon is also threatening the food security.

Climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions that
lead to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety,
among other causes. A major scientific assessment released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicates:
“If society continues on a path of high emissions of greenhouse gases, there is no way around the fact that climate
change is going to be a primary challenge for producing and distributing food.”

Pope Francis says, “We must not forget the grave social consequences of climate change. It is the poorest who suffer
the worst consequences.”

Climate impacts have shown to hit the developing world’s poor the hardest partly because they are more likely to be
dependent on the very resources impacted and partly because they have far lesser capacity to protect themselves.
The phenomenon is already contributing to the deaths of nearly 400,000 people a year and costing the world more
than $1.2 trillion, wiping 1.6% annually from global GDP. By 2030, the researchers estimate, the cost of climate
change and air pollution combined will rise to 3.2% of global GDP, with the world’s least developed countries
forecast to bear the brunt, suffering losses of up to 11% of their GDP.

Although Pakistan is one of the lowest emitters and accounts for less than 1pc of the total global carbon emissions,
yet it remains at the forefront of the devastating impacts of climate change. The year 2015 has proved to be an
unusual one for Pakistan due to unpredictable weather events. A mini-cyclone in Peshawar killed 44 people, heat
waves in Karachi killed more than 1,500 people, cloudbursts in various areas of Gilgit-Baltistan affected 35,717
people, while floods across the country killed 238 and affected more than 1.5 million people.

The climatic changes, having huge negative impacts on Pakistan, as well as several natural disasters including floods
and droughts have threatened the agriculture and agri-based communities of the country.

The whole discussion can be summed up in the following words

“If we want to address global warming, along with the other environmental problems associated with our continued
rush to burn our precious fossil fuels as quickly as possible, we must learn to use our resources more wisely, kick
our addiction, and quickly start turning to sources of energy that have fewer negative impacts.”

– David Suzuki

Climate Change & National Security

December 11, 2015 December 2015, Pak Affairs Leave a comment

Climate change presents a grave threat to the security and prosperity of

almost all countries across the globe. Pakistan, which ranks tenth in 2014
global index of fragile states, is also no exception to it. This phenomenon is
turning out to be the most fundamental of all non-traditional security threats
for Pakistan. These threats arise primarily out of non-military sources, and
climate change as well as the resultant resource scarcity, infectious diseases,
natural disasters, irregular migrations and food shortages are taking a heavy
toll on the country.
Traditionally, national security is analyzed through the lense of physical threats from invaders, extremist groups,
whether within or outside of the country, and social or political unrest which may lead to destabilization. However,
along with these, the world, at present, is witnessing a new threat to global and national security in the form of
climate change. In case of Pakistan, the climate change has turned into one of the biggest national security issues,
and failure to acknowledge its impacts today will pose serious challenges for the country in the near future. It is
because of the fact that climate change is a threat multiplier that exacerbates existing pressures as well as poses new
challenges to security in fragile societies like Pakistan.
Robert McNamara one said, “Security means development and without development there is no security.” It means
that there exists a strong linkage between a country’s national security and the economy because only a strong
economy can ensure strong defence; it will enhance country’s power and hence will strengthen national security.
But, Pakistan’s economy is highly vulnerable to climate change effects and this phenomenon has been identified as
the biggest security threat in recent times.
Although in recent years, Pakistan’s economy has shown some promising signs of development, it has been sluggish
for the past many years. Natural disasters, which directly result from climate change, have been hitting Pakistan’s
economy hard especially since 2010. Recurring, devastating floods strike heavy blows almost every year.

Recent estimates from the World Bank reveal that Pakistan has suffered losses in excess of $18bn because of natural
disasters over the last one decade. In addition, data from the NDMA shows that more than 2.5m people were
affected due to last year’s deluge in the Chenab and Sutlej rivers, with over 350 casualties and destruction of over
1m acres of crops. This year, floods have again damaged the economy. According to the World Resources Institute,
Pakistan ranks 5th in the list of top 15 countries that account for 80 percent of the population exposed to river-flood
risk worldwide. While Pakistan’s economy has seen negligible growth over the last many years, WRI estimates
indicate that nearly 1 percent of the GDP losses are attributable to floods every year. Additionally, studies indicate
that on average, up to 1.6 percent of the country’s population is affected by natural catastrophes every year.

Changing climate has emerged as a big national security threat for Pakistan and if not tackled through policy
initiative, it may have devastating effects on the population of the country. For Pakistan, climate change is turning
out to be the most fundamental non-traditional security threat and its impacts are already being felt in the form of
floods, droughts, cyclones and sea level rise in and around Pakistan.

On Road to Paris: Fighting Climate Change

November 7, 2015 November 2015, Pak Affairs Leave a comment

A two-day moot in Lahore, organized by Embassy of France in collaboration with various stakeholders,
brought together a distinguished galaxy of diplomats, development practitioners, people associated with the
NGOs and INGOs, civil society activists, intellectuals, ministers and government representatives. Around 600
people attended the event. Officially titled as ‘Pakistan to Paris: On the road to 2015 Paris Climate
Conference (COP21)’. To be attended by around 40,000 delegates from around the world, the Paris moot has
been tipped as the largest gathering of diplomats.
The participants of the Lahore moot gathered at a time when our world and our planet are confronted with the
horrors of climate change. Gone are the days when dangers of climate change were the subject of intellectual
debates and discussions. Today, all of our efforts for human development, poverty alleviation, food and energy
security, stability and material progress face the threat of coming to naught, if we do not pay heed to the challenge of
climate change.

The issue of climate change is global in nature. There is, thus, the utmost need of crafting a global response to deal
with its effects. Our destinies and our future are closely inter-woven and it is by coming together and pooling our
material and intellectual resources that we can mitigate the dangers of this global scourge.

It is in this context that this Conference on Climate Change marks a watershed in our efforts to fashion a global
strategy; a strategy which is holistic and enjoys broad-based ownership.

The United Nations Climate Change Conference 2015 or COP21 — to be hosted by France in November-December
this year — promises to secure new international consensus with an aim to keep the global warming below 2 degrees
Celsius. The agenda of solutions to mitigate and adapt to climate impacts, to be adopted at COP21, will deliver a
powerful message of collective global action against threats of climate change.
The dangers of climate change are present and real and they have affected our world across all sectors of life. It has
undermined human health and food security causing displacement of people thereby creating urban hotspots of
hunger and violent conflicts. South Asia has experienced as many as 1017 natural disasters from 1971 to 2010; more
than 2 billion people have been affected and over 800,000 deaths have occurred to date besides an economic loss of
nearly $80 billion.  

Though Pakistan’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emission is very small, the country has, however, been
listed among those nations that face high vulnerabilities to the adverse impacts of climate change.

The super floods of 2010, which inflicted an economic loss of $9.6 billion besides huge loss of lives as documented
by a joint study of the World Bank and Asian Development Bank, were the consequence of extreme weather
conditions. Likewise, we are having erratic weather pattern that manifested itself in the form of heavy monsoons and
flooding over the last five years, again highlights our predicament.

Global warming and carbon soot deposits are likely to cause considerable recession of Hindukush-Karakoram
Himalayan glaciers thereby threatening water inflows into the Indus River System. Intense and frequent flooding has
led to increased siltation of major dams. We are experiencing rising temperatures resulting in enhanced heat and
water-stressed conditions particularly in arid and semi-arid regions leading to reduced agricultural productivity.
 The forest cover, which is already scanty, faces further reduction due to rapid changes in climatic conditions. At the
same time, there is an increased stress between upper riparian and low riparian regions of the country over sharing
of water resources.

To cut the long story short, the phenomenon of climate change has posed real challenges to our efforts for water
security, increased agricultural productivity, energy security, human health and ecosystem.

Mindful of the challenge of climate change, the Government of Pakistan, in consultation with provincial
governments and other stakeholders, has formulated a National Climate Change Policy. The Policy identifies
climate-induced threats and spells out measures to address them from short- to medium- to long-term basis. It is
complemented by Framework for Implementation of Climate Change Policy 2014-2030, which details steps and
mitigation measures to address vulnerabilities of different sectors.

The goal of making Pakistan a climate-resilient country and mainstreaming climate change in public policy agenda
cannot be achieved unless we work on four areas, namely:

1. Capacity-building and strengthening of institutions

2. Robust advocacy and creation of awareness on climate change

3. Technology transfers

4. Regional and international cooperation

In order to optimally and fully respond to the climate change challenge, we need to increase the capacity and
upgrade the strength of institutions responsible for making mitigation and adaptation efforts. The availability of
sufficient and trained workforce will be possible as a result of conscious investment in climate change education and
establishment of tailor-made institutions.

At the same time, people’s increased awareness of threats of climate change is central to our efforts to minimize its
effects. There is a constant need of communicating with the general public through community outreach
programmes and public education. This calls for a public-private partnership to highlight and project the climate
change perils.

By all means, climate change is one of the most difficult and complex threats. There is a need of finding innovative
technological solutions to enable societies to succeed in mitigating and adapting to its challenges. Technology
transfer from the developed to developing countries is key to evolving a shared response to this daunting challenges.
Given the very nature of the threat of climate change, it is important that both the developed and developing
countries engage with each other and work together on a shared agenda. We need to usher in a new era of global
cooperation on climate change. South Asia is highly prone to climate change and related disasters, which makes the
case for regional cooperation even more urgent and compelling. Regional cooperation can prove to be the bedrock
of global partnership on climate.

The first step towards fighting a challenge is to acknowledge its criticality and urgency. It is hoped that the global
community is very much sensitized to the threats of climate change. What is required is that we demonstrate our
collective will and determination to walk the talk. The Paris Conference will be a watershed in this regard.

Climate Change Facts & Figures

January 11, 2015 CSS Special, January 2015 Leave a comment

Diplomats from more than 190 nations recently held

talks at a United Nations global warming conference in
Lima, Peru, to pave the way for an international treaty
they hope to forge next year. At present, the numbers
are stark. Carbon dioxide emissions: up 60 percent.
Global temperature: up six-tenths of a degree.
Population: up 1.7 billion people. Sea level: up 3
inches. U.S. extreme weather: up 30 percent. Ice
sheets in Greenland and Antarctica: down 4.9 trillion
tonnes of ice. To see how much the globe has
changed since the first such international conference
– the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 – Here
is the crux of databases from around the world.
 

Wild Weather
Since 1992, there have been more than 6,600 major climate, weather and water disasters worldwide, causing more
than $1.6 trillion in damage and killing more than 600,000 people.

Extreme weather has noticeably increased over the years. From 1983 to 1992, the world averaged 147 climate, water
and weather disasters each year. Over the past 10 years, that number has jumped to an average 306 a year.
In the United States, an index of climate extremes — hot and cold, wet and dry — kept by the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration has jumped 30 percent from 1992 to 2013, not counting hurricanes, based on 10-
year averages.
NOAA also keeps track of US weather disasters that cost more than $1 billion, when adjusted for inflation. Since
1992, there have been 136 such billion-dollar events.

Worldwide, the 10-year average for weather-related losses adjusted for inflation was $30 billion a year from 1983-
92. From 2004 to 2013, the cost was more than three times that on average, or $131 billion a year.

Temperature
It’s almost a sure thing that 2014 will go down as the hottest year in 135 years of record keeping. If so, this will be
the sixth time since 1992 that the world set or tied a new annual record for the warmest year.

The globe has broken six monthly heat records in 2014 and 47 since 1992. The last monthly cold record set was in
1916.

So, the average annual temperature for 2014 is on track to be about 58.2 degrees (14.6 degrees Celsius), compared
with 57.4 degrees (14.1 degrees Celsius) in 1992. The past 10 years have averaged a shade below 58.1 degrees
(nearly 14.5 degrees Celsius) — six-tenths of a degree warmer than the average between 1983 and 1992.

The Oceans
The world’s oceans have risen by about 3 inches since 1992 and gotten a tad more acidic — by about half a percent
— thanks to chemical reactions caused by the absorption of carbon dioxide. Every year sea ice cover shrinks to a
yearly minimum size in the Arctic in September — a measurement that is considered a key climate change
indicator. From 1983 to 1992, the lowest it got on average was 2.62 million square miles. Now the 10-year average
is down to 1.83 million square miles.

That loss — an average 790,000 square miles since 1992 — overshadows the slight gain in sea ice in Antarctica,
which has seen an average gain of 110,000 square miles of sea ice over the past 22 years.

On Land
The world’s population in 1992 was 5.46 billion. Today, it’s nearly a third higher, at 7.18 billion. That means more
carbon pollution and more people who could be vulnerable to global warming.

The effects of climate change can be seen in harsher fire seasons. Wildfires in the western United States burned an
average of 2.7 million acres each year between 1983 and 1992; now that’s up to 7.3 million acres from 1994 to
2013.
And some of the biggest climate change effects on land are near the poles, where people don’t often see them. From
1992 to 2011, Greenland’s ice sheet lost 3.35 trillion tonnes of ice. Antarctica lost 1.56 trillion tonnes of ice over the
same period.

The Air
Scientists simply point to greenhouse gas emissions, mostly carbon dioxide that forms a heat-trapping blanket in our
air.

There’s no need to average the yearly amount of carbon dioxide pollution: It has increased steadily, by 60 percent,
from 1992 to 2013. In 1992, the world spewed 24.9 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide; now it is 39.8 billion tonnes.

China has tripled its emissions from 3 billion tonnes to 11 billion tonnes a year. The emissions from the US have
gone up more slowly, about 6 percent, from 5.4 billion tonnes to 5.8 billion tonnes. India also has tripled its
emissions, from 860 million tonnes to 2.6 billion tonnes. Only European countries have seen their emissions go
down, from 4.5 billion tonnes to 3.8 billion tonnes.

Climate Change & Pakistan

October 4, 2014 October 2014, Pak Affairs Leave a comment

Pakistan is facing numerous socioeconomic

challenges including poverty, terrorism, water
scarcity, to name some. However, the most complex
challenge likely to impact our current and future
generations is climate change. The signs are already
visible on our society, most prominent of which is the
extreme flooding during recent years. The ever-
increasing impacts of climate change have given rise
to the need that the brilliant minds in Pakistan sit up
and discuss ways to tackle this looming threat.
Introduction
The climate change phenomenon is exhibiting unforeseen and asymmetrical weather patterns in Pakistan. As is
evident from longer spells of heavy rains, withering floods and droughts in parallel, Pakistan is experiencing the
worst effects of climate change. These wet and dry conditions present serious threats to agriculture, industry, water
resources – in fact, the country’s overall economic framework. As the climate has become warmer, these weather
extremes have become more frequent and dangerous due to increase in extreme heat, scarce precipitation and
drought.

ADB’s Assessment
The Asian Development Bank in its recent report, ‘Assessing the Costs of Climate Change and Adaptation in South
Asia’ found: “Climate change will affect South Asia more than most other regions. South Asia’s weather is likely
to become hotter than the global average, while monsoon rains and heavy storms will increase in most parts of the
region. As well, the mountainous countries face increased flooding and landslides, while the coastal countries of the
region are likely to be partly inundated by sea-level rise.”

Effects on Pakistan
Pakistan is also hard hit by climate change. According to the Global Climate Risk Index 2014 released by the
German Watch Institute, Pakistan is ranked number three after Haiti and the Philippines as countries most affected
by climate change. This should set off alarm bells for our government and it should take stringent measures for
climate change mitigation.

Until some decades ago, the annual temperature ranges had normal variances. However, in the past few years, the
annual temperature range has been growing, mostly owing to an increase in the maximum temperature that is
recorded in the summer months. In 2010, across Sindh and in parts of Blochistan, the highest temperature was 50 to
52 degrees continuously for 10 days. It is worth mentioning that parts of Punjab, during 2010, also saw a heat wave
with temperatures lasting for days around 48 to 50 degrees. This heat wave was followed by a massive flood caused
by unexpected torrential rains, that brought with them loss of hundreds of lives, thousands of livestock, submerging
of tens of millions of acres of fertile agricultural land, inundation of the most critical of power plants, besides
causing a major law and order problem, with the army diverting its attention to rescue and relief.

Ignoring this issue has taken many lives and millions of people have been affected in the recent past, as climate
change has flooded our plains again and again. Glacial melt is increasing and is also on an all-time high in Pakistan,
which means that there is a strong probability of great floods in future. This is going to have deadly impacts. Hence,
sensitising the unaware regarding climate change is much needed in Pakistan. We cannot ignore the fact that it is the
matter of our survival.

How to Mitigate?
It is an undeniable fact that the Pakistani economy is highly dependent on agriculture and if certain measures are not
taken, the country may confront genuine threats. To save agriculture, farmers are presently being prompted by
experts to reconsider their harvest timetable and begin sowing cotton two months prior so that the product is
harvested before the monsoon hits. Rice cultivators; again, ought to strive for deferred planting.

There is a need to bring in new mixed varieties of wheat, rice and sugarcane which can grow faster and survive
storms and delayed drought. There is an agreement among experts that new dams can control and deal with the
future surge of the currents of the rivers. Or else the nation will undoubtedly see a greater amount of such deluges
and additional problems.

For the long haul, strategies need to be combined with the goal that individuals and domesticated animals are
protected from the crushing impacts of natural calamities.

Role of Media
If we wish to sensitise people we need to sensitise the media first. It is the government’s responsibility to
communicate these disastrous impacts using whatever means possible. Effectively portraying it will help in dealing
with the issue and the government can push the media to do so by giving government ads to those groups and outlets
that widely report on the environment. The media must play a greater role in communicating climate change impacts
to the public.
More funds also need to be allocated for the Climate Change Division so that increases in carbon emissions could be
curtailed. Unfortunately, this division has witnessed a huge reduction in funds having dropped down to Rs25 million
in the 2014-15 budget with no specific allocation for climate change awareness through the media.
Conclusion
2014 floods are live a wakeup call for our rulers they have failed to understand the gravity of the situation. The issue
is ignored and makes any reasonable individual question the government’s policies. Sufficient funds need to be
allocated to create climate change awareness among the public so that vulnerable  communities, especially those
living along the coastal and northern areas of Pakistan, who stand on the frontline of climate change, take necessary
steps to mitigate it.

HOW TO SLOW CLIMATE CHANGE?

August 4, 2014 August 2014, General Leave a comment

Target the 90 companies who pollute the most. The

UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) recently released its third of four planned
reports. This one is on mitigation, or the ‘human
intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the
sinks of greenhouse gases.’ There have been many
such reports before by the IPCC and others; and many
more reports are on their way. We have no reason to
expect this latest IPCC report to galvanize the
extensive climate action that’s needed.
The 25-year track record of the climate movement shows that very little has been achieved. Perhaps adapting the
lessons learned from other successful social movements could be a promising path forward!
First, to push forward effective climate action we need to define the target narrowly. Harmful emissions come from
many activities (the power sector, the transportation sector, agriculture, housing and others), and multiple energy
sources (coal, oil, gas, land use). This variability contributes to the size of the climate movement and its propensity
to shoot in multiple directions to try and cover oil, gas, coal, construction, transportation, manufacturing, food,
travel, waste, e-waste, and many other industries.

In reality, ninety companies are responsible for two-thirds of the harmful emissions generated since the industrial
age began. All are oil, gas, coal or cement companies and their CEOs can conveniently fit in a short Tesla convoy.
They control five times as much oil, coal and gas as it is safe to burn; in other words, 80 per cent of their reserves
must be locked away underground to avoid a catastrophe. These large companies, lobbying to prevent government
action on climate change, are at the heart of our current carbon-intensive model destroying the planet.
Second, the climate movement must focus its message on people, not animals or things. Climate change challenges
the most basic human rights: The right to life (climate change kills people), the right to subsistence (increased
droughts, water shortages and floods affect the means of basic subsistence) and the right to health (climate change
spreads diseases and injury). In Bangladesh alone, rising sea levels are expected to inundate 17 per cent of the land
and displace 18 million people.

Research shows that climate change will impact society and could increase violent behaviour; political stability
could be threatened and governing institutions put under further pressure. More climate action could arise if the
scale of present and future human suffering were to be communicated consistently and becomes clear to all.

Third, to move towards significant climate action we need a drastic cut in emissions, leading to an economy fuelled
with renewable energy. This much is clear. The problem is that the costs of climate action are not always accepted
because it is not clearly understood what damages fossil fuels are causing. For example, according to a 2012 KPMG
report, the largest 3,000 companies by market capitalization cause some £1.29trillion of environmental damage per
year. All the climate action in the world won’t cost a fraction of this amount. We should also bear in mind that when
human rights are violated, costs must take a back seat.

In short, a coherent approach to climate action would focus on the largest culprits, a small group of 90 companies.
Fundamental change can be effected by focusing on their violations of basic human rights and the resulting suffering
caused to tens of millions of people today, and many more tomorrow. Through effective action, these companies’
standing would be cut to what it should be ‘ about 20 per cent of the size they are today ‘ shifting investment capital
away from them and towards clean energy and innovation. Starved of capital, they would no longer be able to
extract the 80 per cent of fossil fuels we can’t afford. This process of change would be supported by strong
institutions.

However, talking about human rights to the 90 companies sinking the rest of the world won’t work: witness Exxon’s
recent disclosure about climate risks where it brazenly stated that in fact it doesn’t see how these are related to its
plans to exploit all of its oil and gas reserves through 2040. Climate action should, therefore, focus on a narrow
objective: Shrinking the market capitalisation of the companies most responsible for climate change and limiting
their access to capital, thereby stifling their ability to exploit reserves and grow.

IPCC Report Highlights

1. Coastal systems and low-lying areas
By the end of the century, ‘hundreds of millions of people will be affected by coastal flooding and displaced due to
land loss.’

2. Food security
Climate change will reduce median yields by up to 2 per cent per decade for the rest of the century.

3. The global economy

A global mean temperature increase of 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels may lead to global aggregate economic
losses of between 0.2 and 2.0 per cent.

4. Human health
Climate change will lead to increases in ill-health in many regions, with examples including an increased likelihood
of under-nutrition.

5. Human security
Climate change over the 21st century will have a significant impact on forms of migration that compromise human
security.

6. Freshwater resources
It will ‘reduce renewable surface water and groundwater resources significantly in most dry subtropical regions.”

7. Unique landscapes
Machair, a grassy coastal habitat found only in north-west Scotland and the west coast of Ireland is at risk from
climate change.

Can Pakistan Survive Climate Change?

July 4, 2013 July 2013, Pak Affairs Leave a comment
The lighting is dingy, the walls are faded and the desk
is well-worn. But the proud green sign outside the
building reads “Ministry of Climate Change.
Few developing countries — and few developed countries, for that matter — have such an agency devoted to
addressing the impacts of rising global temperatures. This one recently launched a national climate change policy
and pumped new funding into a state institution that researches the impacts of global warming.

But Pakistani climate change advocates say they fear for the future. In interviews in Islamabad and Lahore recently,
activists and government officials alike said there is not enough money to pay for the country’s $13 billion to $32
billion in annual climate change needs. Moreover, many questioned whether a state grappling with extremism and
sectarian violence, and still struggling to provide its citizens clean drinking water and reliable electricity, is truly
capable of tackling long-term environmental threats.

“If I be honest enough on this point, climate change is somewhere down the priority list. The biggest priorities are
military, terrorism, the energy crisis,” said Hussain, deputy secretary in the Ministry of Climate Change. But, he
said, “We have a good road map in front of us and now we need to make people aware. Not just the common people,
but the policymakers.”

Few countries are as vulnerable to climate change as Pakistan. Sandwiched between Iran, India and Afghanistan and
bordered by both the Himalaya and Hindu Kush mountain ranges, Pakistan already is seeing troubling changes in its
two main sources of water: monsoons and glaciers.
Along the Indus Delta, unpredictable torrential rains are damaging the wheat harvest. Melting glaciers in the Hindu
Kush-Karakoram Himalaya mountain range, which provides water for 90 percent of the country’s crops, are causing
devastating flash floods and disrupting water supplies.

Scientists say that in the past two decades, the average temperature in Pakistan has risen by 0.57 degree Celsius and
the country has faced 141 extreme weather events — including a 2010 deluge that displaced 20 million people.
Recently, a former Pakistani environment minister projected that climate change could cost the economy up to $14
billion per year.

“The whole climatalogical system is being disrupted,” said Shafqat Kakakhel, former deputy executive director of
the U.N. Environment Programme and a leading voice on climate change in Pakistan. As temperatures continue to
rise, he said, “you will either have monsoons too early or too much. It’s happening in India, and it’s happening in
Pakistan.”

You think you have problems?

Meanwhile, Pakistan also is facing an alarmingly high population growth rate, the highest in the world, at around
2.03 percent. Poverty is widespread, predominantly in rural areas, and migration to urban areas is at an all-time high.

“Our numbers are huge — 180 million people, and before you go back to Washington, we will be 182 million,” said
Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, CEO of LEAD Pakistan, a leading environmental organization in Islamabad.

“We don’t have enough storage of grain. We don’t have varieties that can withstand increased carbon and moisture
because of the monsoon, so we are on the verge of food insecurity. The challenge for us in the next half-century is to
feed twice as many people with half of the water, and as a government, we are not taking this on,” Sheikh said.

And therein lies the fundamental problem. Experts credit the country with taking a huge institutional step in creating
an agency focused on climate change. But with little in the way of plans to finance or carry out adaptation plans,
they worry that the blossoming bureaucracy is being built on straw.

Across the country, a small but committed cadre of people devoted to protecting Pakistan from climate change, are
trying to change that.

Shahid Kamal, Pakistan’s former ambassador to Germany, is developing Pakistan’s first climate change study
center. Funded by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany, the Centre on Climate
Research and Development will work on things like weather data monitoring, cloud physics, hydrological modeling
and studying the impacts of aerosols on climate.

Kamal said that range of scientific analysis and data — critical if government bodies want to design proposals that
will draw international financing — has been missing for too long from Pakistan’s body of climate knowledge.

“In the past, environment has not been a top item. We have a very few experts in climate, so we are trying to
develop that,” Kamal said.

Preparing for outside help

He said the violence and instability rocking Pakistan also put the country at a disadvantage when it comes to
developing connections with researchers and policymakers in other countries.

“One of the challenges we face in Pakistan today is that we’ve become very marginalized,” Kamal said. “People
don’t come here for business or tourism, so our young people are growing up pretty much on their own.” He said
that in addition to enhancing the status of climate change within Pakistan, the center’s goal will be establishing
partnerships abroad.

Meanwhile, the Pakistani government recently announced a boost in funding to the Global Change Impact Studies
Centre, a research entity to help the water, agriculture and forestry sectors become more resilient to climate change.
Jawad Ali Khan, director-general of the Ministry of Climate Change, said he hopes to see the center lead research
for South Asia. He also outlined a plan to reduce Islamabad’s carbon footprint 50 percent by 2050 and develop a
domestic fund so that Pakistan is not entirely reliant on global efforts like the still-developing Green Climate Fund,
which is supposed to deliver about $100 billion in climate aid by 2020 but for now remains empty.

“It’s not that we will wait for the world to help us, but the world also has its obligations to meet. Until that happens,
though, we are not sitting quietly,” Khan said. “We are so much threatened, and we have to survive. We have to
confront the challenges, and if we are not doing it, our economic development will be much more impaired.”

Sheikh said it is no small accomplishment to see a national climate change policy emerge from the government, a
document that took two years and 40 scientists to produce. But, he said, while the concerns of the environmental
community are getting reflected in policy documents, the country’s institutions still have a long way to go —
including establishing the technical details of a fund so that Pakistan can be ready to accept international financial
flows.

‘Even if Pakistan has the money, the country is not ready,” Sheikh said. “If Mr. Obama would come here and write a
check, we would be happy to receive it. But we wouldn’t know what to do with it.” He added: “We are behind the
curve right now, but we will have to make progress. There is no choice for us.”

Pakistan-India Water Conflict and Climate Change

January 4, 2013 January 2013, Pak Affairs Leave a comment

The rift may be threatening South Asia’s peace This

article discusses the institutional mechanism
established by the treaty
True to the remark, the next-century war will be fought over water, not over oil. The Indus Basin Treaty, 1960
envisaged the resolution of the long-standing water dispute between Pakistan and India, which emerged right after
the independence in 1947.

Water is Nature’s most blessed and a great gift. But it is crucial to acknowledge that our existing water woes are
being compounded due to wastage, inefficient use and contamination.

While it is the main and cheapest source of producing electricity, water remains a bone of contention between
Pakistan and India since independence. And the conflict may be threatening South Asia’s peace.

The Indus Basin Treaty was signed between the two countries back in 1960 under the World Bank for the resolution
of this long-standing dispute. But, unfortunately, the treaty could not prove fruitful. To quote World Bank Vice
President Ismail Seragedin: ‘The next-century war will be fought over water, not over oil.’
Furthermore, the need to build dams to store extra water emerged as the strongest phenomenon to avert massive
floods. India and Pakistan are part of the Himalayan range which is receding due to the climate change.

Indus Basin Treaty, 1960:

Under the treaty, India got an absolute control over three eastern rivers: the Sutlej, Beas and Ravi. However,
Pakistan got control over the Indus, Chenab and Jhelum rivers. Furthermore, Pakistan allowed India to use water for
run-of-river projects provided the inflow at the Marala Head should not fall below 55,000 cusecs.

The Indus Basin Irrigation System that irrigated some 37 million acres of land was conceived originally as a unified
system and considered one of the most extensive and highly developed irrigation systems in the world. It was
divided between India and Pakistan without regard to the irrigation boundaries. This resulted in the creation of the
international water dispute in April 1948 when India cut off the flow of water in canals that crossed the Pakistan-
India boundary.
No doubt, the Indus is Pakistan’s primary freshwater source on which 90 per cent agriculture depends. Pakistani
agriculture and water experts believe that the nation is heading towards a massive water shortage in the next couple
of years due to insufficient water management practices and storage capacity, which will be exacerbated by the twin
Indian hydroelectric projects because they will further diminish the Indus’ flow.

The Indian breach:

The Indian breach of the Indus Basin Treaty means the country is bent upon pursuing its most-cherished ambition as
it plans to enhance the hydel capacity by 50,000 MW by 2050. India is building big dams like Kishanganga, Uri I
(240 MW), Uri II (240 MW) and Nathpa Dam (1650 MW) on the River Jhelum, Sawalkot (1200 MW) and Pakdul
(1000 MW) on the River Chenab.
Climate change and adverse effect:
Pakistan is the least contributor of carbon in atmosphere but is severely affected by climate change. Pakistan
contributes just 0.01 per cent of the total emitted carbon on the earth, which is causing global warming. In 2010, the
people of Pakistan faced a horrible flood which did a colossal loss to human life and properties and resulted in total
devastation.
One fifth of the country became inundated as around 20 million people were badly affected and some 2,000 were
reported killed. This huge surge in water was due to receding cliffs and glaciers. So the climate change is
responsible for the massive devastation. If large dams are built in Pakistan, the risk of such a formidable calamity
may be minimised if not totally averted.

 Pakistan has a capacity to produce 50,000MW of electricity, but if India keeps on breaching the contract and does
not satisfy Pakistan, this capacity will be cut to 11,000MW.

 Implications of climate change:

India is one of the major contributors of carbon emission in the earth’s atmosphere. In the face of a large surge of
water in rivers, it might have affected it more as compared to Pakistan. Yet there is a great probability of such a
happening. The receding glaciers force India to build big dams for water storage.
The Medakheda Dam:  
India has completed the Medakheda Dam on the River Indus. It is also noticed that according to the provision of the
Indus Water Treaty, the level of water at Marala should not be below 55,000 cusecs. However, after the building of
these dams the flow of water remained at 20,000 cusecs. Furthermore, India did not inform Pakistan about the
building of dams, which is a clear breach of the treaty. When Pakistan came to know about these dams, India had
already accomplished 70 per cent of work.
Ramification of the row:
After diverting a large amount of water India is trying to make the Pakistan land barren. It is leaving huge
implications on the country’s farming. The per capita utility of water is squeezing day by day. Thus, if India is not
dealt with sternly it might result in an unimaginable loss to the agricultural produce in Pakistan.
Dams on fault lines:
It is said there are dams which India is building on the fault lines. For instance, the Swalkot Dam with a capacity of
1200 MW and as high as 646ft is just 160 kilometres from Pakistan. If this project continues, it would have great
impact on Pakistan and thus would result in an unthinkable catastrophe.
Pakistan’s potential:
Pakistan has a capacity to produce 50,000MW of electricity, but if India keeps on breaching the contract and does
not satisfy Pakistan, this capacity will be cut to 11,000MW. Therefore, it is high time that we do something about it.

Recommendations:
The United Nations (UN) should set up an international commission on the transnational rivers. It is need of the
hour to build, devise and make international law to regulate the transnational boundary rivers. It is binding on India
to stick to the treaty because accords are sacred and should, therefore, be honoured. Pakistan must try to convince
India to abide by the provisions of the treaty.
Neutral experts:
Under the UN, this matter can be referred to international organizations. It would evolve further provisions to
discuss the matter in detail, but while keeping in mind the provisions of the Indus Basin Treaty. The Indus Basin
Treaty must be the final word for all jurists. However, the UN can be engaged to find out some way-out.
Pakistan needs to build big dams in order to come out of the present severe energy crisis. Our agricultural lands will
become barren in the absence of sufficient amount of water which is a must to meet our requirements and, of course,
for survival. Therefore, India must honour the treaties as pacts are sacred.

By: Haseeb Gohar

Impacts of Climate Change on Developing

Countries II
September 4, 2012 Pak Affairs, September 2012 Leave a comment
Scientists believe the global temperatures will
continue to rise for the decades to come, largely due
to greenhouse gasses produced by human activities.
Over the next century, the temperature might rise by
10 degrees Fahrenheit
Climate change is more than a heating phenomenon and has larger impacts. Climate change is a change in existing
climatic system and weather patterns owing to various reasons. It is not in fact synonymous to global warming rather
it has been accentuated and has become more pronounced and visible due to global warming in recent times.
Scientists have high confidence that global temperatures will continue to rise for decades to come, largely due to
greenhouse gasses produced by human activities. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which
includes more than 1,300 scientists from the United States and other countries, forecasts a temperature rise of 2.5 to
10 degrees Fahrenheit over the next century. According to the IPCC, the extent of climate change effects on
individual regions will vary over time and with the ability of different societal and environmental systems to
mitigate or adapt to change. The IPCC predicts that increases in global mean temperature of less than 1.8 to 5.4
degrees Fahrenheit (1 to 3 degrees Celsius) above 1990 levels will produce beneficial impacts in some regions and
harmful ones in others. Net annual costs will increase over time as global temperatures increase. Retreating glaciers,
rising sea levels and changing patterns of rainfall speak volumes about the magnanimity of climate change. Though
it is a global phenomenon and without discrimination affecting the world, still developing world is likely to face the
real challenges in future.

Geography and Economy of Developing World

Developing countries are prone to climatic variations because of their geographic features and their economic
outlook. Most of the LDCs are agrarian in nature and lands are either irrigated or rain-fed. Population clusters are
found near river banks. For instance, in Indian subcontinent, major population clusters are found on the alluvial
soils. Few of the largest rivers in the world are found in this region like Yangtze and Yellow rivers in China, Ganges
Brahmapurta in Bangladesh and Indus in Pakistan. In Pakistan, 90% of the arable land is irrigated and 10% is rain-
fed. More than 60% of the work force is consumed in agriculture sector and this subtropical semi-arid climatic
country receives maximum of its rainfall share during monsoon season. Himalayas, the greatest geographic feature
of the region, that is considered as the Third Pole of the world and waters the lands of most of the Asiatic region
including massive population clusters of China, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Many among LDCs exist in the
most vulnerable region of the world due to climatic variations. Rising sea levels, intense weather patterns and
frequent droughts and floods have become the permanent feature since last few years.

More importantly, almost all of the world’s LDCs were once colonial possessions of one or more of the great
European powers: England, France or Spain. Their independence was mostly obtained at some point in the 20th
century. Colonial powers thought of territorial possessions as sources of raw materials and commercial opportunities
that enhanced prosperity at home.  Agriculture and mining, therefore, were the major economic activities that were
carried on in the colonies, and little or no investment was made in capital, or even in education or infrastructure,
beyond what was needed to provide docile workers, or get the raw materials to the ports. These were the economic
conditions that were inherited by the colonised nations when they gained their independence.

Impacts of Climate Change on LDCs

Keeping in view the geographic and climatic features of the developing nations and their economic conditions it is
not difficult to understand that climate change can play havoc with them. Experts agree that the world’s poor will
bear the brunt of climate change. As rainfall becomes increasingly unpredictable, small holder farmers will find it
harder than ever to grow the food they need. Moreover, frequent natural disasters will effect the poorest that are
most exposed to hunger because they have no support structures to protect them. Few are the very peculiar impacts
of climate change on developing countries and are stated as under:

Retreating glaciers, rising sea levels and changing patterns of rainfall speak volumes about the magnanimity of
climate change. Though it is a global phenomenon and without discrimination affecting the world, still developing
world is likely to face the real challenges in future.

1-Food Insecurity and impacts on agriculture

Certainly the increased temperatures and unpredictable patterns of rain are directly affecting agriculture sector and
food for masses. LDCs that are largely agrarian and are worst effected by this change. Existing rain belt is shifting
and resulting in desertification of the arable land. It is said that by 2050, climate change is expected to increase the
risk of hunger by 10% to 20% compared to a no-climate change scenario. It is also expected that by 2050 there will
be 24 million more malnourished children as a result of climate change. Almost half of this increase, 10 million
children, will be in sub-Saharan Africa. With climate change, two-thirds of the arable land in Africa could be lost by
2025 and by 2030 climate change could push food prices up by 50% to 90% more than they would otherwise be
expected to rise, according to a recent report. Desertification of the tropical lands will leave millions malnourished.

2-Rise in sea level and climate related disasters

Rising sea levels increase the risk of coastal flooding and can cause population displacement. More than half of the
world’s population now lives within 60 km of shorelines. Floods can directly cause injury and death, and increase
risks of water-borne diseases. Rising seas threaten to inundate low-lying areas and islands, threaten dense coastal
populations, erode shorelines, damage property and destroy ecosystems such as mangroves and wetlands that protect
coasts against storms and triggers climate-related disasters. Climate change is intensifying the circulation of water
on above and below the surface of the earth and causing drought and floods to be more frequent, severe and
widespread. Higher temperatures increase the amount of moisture that evaporates from land and water, leading to
drought in many areas. Between 1980 and 2006 the number of climate-related disasters has quadrupled. The number
of people affected by climate-related disasters is expected to reach 375 million per year by 2015. In 2010, climate-
related extreme events and disasters affected some 300 million people, most often in countries which have little
capacity to cope. Scientific research indicates that climate change will cause hurricanes and tropical storms to
become more intense; lasting longer, unleashing stronger winds, and causing more damage to coastal ecosystems
and communities. Scientists point to higher ocean temperatures as the main culprit, since hurricanes and tropical
storms get their energy from warm water.
3-Heat related diseases

In 2003, extreme heat waves caused more than 1,500 deaths in India. In addition to heat-related illness, climate
change may increase the spread of infectious diseases, mainly because warmer temperatures allow disease-carrying
insects, animals and microbes to survive in areas where they were once thwarted by cold weather. Diseases and
pests that were once limited to the tropics’ such as mosquitoes that carry malaria ‘may find hospitable conditions in
new areas that were once too cold to support them. The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates that climate
change may have caused more than 150,000 deaths in the year 2000 alone, with an increase in deaths likely in the
future.

4-Water issues
Existing situation in South Asia will sufficiently provide evidences of water shortages that are expected in near
future. Countries like Pakistan are already on the verge of being declared as drought prone. More importantly water
emergency in India also indicates that world is not far from the time when water will be a rare commodity. Debates
have often being conducted under the title that 21st century will be the century of water wars. That is purely because
of global warming and climate change. Himalayas, as per the reports of IPCC, are likely to melt by 2040. They are
the feeding source of agricultural sector in the region and major source of fresh water for the billions.

Analysis
Efforts like Kyoto Protocol and Copenhagen Conference have been victim to political tussle. Hence, solution to
climate change and global warming remains a distant reality. There is no denying the fact that LDCs have to pay for
the sins that MDCs has done by destroying the ecosystem and atmosphere. Reducing carbon emissions is not the
only solution. Adaptability is a healthy option but that too has high cost. If a case with Pakistan is considered, saving
existing water resources, forestation, low fuel consumption and traffic control, solving energy woes, more equipped
to control disasters like 2010 floods, developed agriculture system to answer food shortages, health measures to
control heat related and water related diseases and such solutions can be forwarded. There can be general guide lines
for LDCs but the permanent solution of this gigantic monster varies county to county and should be dealt
accordingly. A lot more can be said about this topic of global concern, but to cap it all, it can be said that closing
eyes and waiting for things to happen will not help LDCs. They must look up and save themselves from this
disaster.

Climate for Change The case for a global green

expansion
November 7, 2019 2019, Archives, Exam Pack, November 2019, Others, Study Kit Leave a comment
 A Climate for Change
The case for a global green
expansion
In its flagship report titled “Trade and Development Report 2019,” the UN’s trade and development body,
UNCTAD, has warned that weaker growth in both advanced and developing countries means the possibility of a
global recession in 2020 is a clear and present danger. The report also highlighted increased green investment, which
it said would be a significant source of income and jobs. The report also suggests that meeting the financing
demands of the Agenda 2030 requires rebuilding multilateralism around the idea of a Global Green New Deal, and
pursuing a financial future very different from the recent past. The place to begin building such a future is with a
serious discussion of public financing options, as part of a wider process of repairing the social contract on which
inclusive and sustainable outcomes can emerge and from which private finance can be engaged on more socially
productive terms. Here is an extract from the report related to the Green New Deal.
Beyond the immediate risks that could stall the global economy are a series of macrostructural challenges that
predate the global financial crisis and have gone largely unattended since then. Four stand out because of their high
degree of interdependence: the falling income share of labour; the erosion of public spending; the weakening of
productive investment; and the unsustainable increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
International economic-policy gatherings, where fidelity to the virtues of open borders, capital mobility and market
competition is often a condition of participation, have largely neglected these challenges.

But if trends continue along current lines, the global economy in 2030 will have gone through another decade of
substandard and unstable growth, income gaps within and across countries will have widened further and the natural
environment will be stretched to breaking point.

As labour shares across the world continue to fall, household spending will weaken, further reducing the incentive to
invest in productive activities. At a minimum, this will mean lacklustre job creation and stagnant wages in
developed countries as well as slow expansion (or outright contraction) of domestic markets in developing countries.
Both outcomes will worsen if governments keep promoting cuts to labour costs as their adjustment strategy of
choice. Aggregate demand will be weakened further, as governments continue to reduce social protection and
abstain from infrastructure investment, which will also make supply constraints tighter. Unchecked private credit
creation and predatory financial practices will continue to fuel destabilizing financial transactions, while failing to
stimulate private productive investment. In the meantime, absent sufficient investment and international agreement
on technology transfer, carbon emissions will push the climate closer towards a point of no return.

Against these trends, it is critical for governments across the world to reclaim policy space and act to boost
aggregate demand. To do so, they must tackle high levels of income inequality head on, adopting more progressive
fiscal arrangements, and directly targeting social outcomes through employment creation, decent work programmes
and expanded social insurance. But they must also spearhead a coordinated investment push, especially towards
decarbonization of the economy, both by investing directly (through public sector entities) and by boosting private
investment in more productive and sustainable economic activities.

The threat of global warming requires immediate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and stabilize the Earth’s
climate. Recent studies by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United States Global
Change Research Program, among others, have made it clear that if we fail to change course, we are only a few
decades away from disastrous climate-driven losses.

A successful response to the climate crisis will have multiple benefits, including environmental “co-benefits” such
as cleaner air and oceans and forest reclamation. Less obvious, but also important, is the economic impact of climate
policy. Climate protection requires a massive new wave of investment, reinventing energy and other carbon-emitting
sectors. New low-carbon technologies must be created, installed and maintained on a global scale.

That wave of green investment would be a major source of income and employment growth, contributing to global
macroeconomic recovery. Many, though not all, of the jobs created by green investment are inherently local to the
area where investment occurs and involve training in new skills.
Recent discussions call this strategy (in combination with high wages and standards, social services, and
employment opportunities for all) the “Green New Deal” recalling the 1930s New Deal, which tackled
unemployment and low wages, the predatory nature of finance, infrastructure gaps and regional inequalities, in the
context of recovering from the Great Depression.

There are certainly numerous opportunities for investment in energy efficiency and renewable energy supply, many
of them already cost-effective at today’s prices and in new patterns of high-density, transit-centred urbanism. This
implies new configurations of housing, work and public services, connected by more extensive mass transit. A full-
scale transition to electric vehicles will also require a more extensive infrastructure of charging stations, and
continued progress in reducing vehicle costs. New technologies, not yet commercialized, will be needed to complete
the de-carbonization of the global economy, along with new agricultural practices, tailored to minimize emissions. A
just transition will also require big investments in communities that have become dependent on resource-intensive
livelihoods.

Developing countries may face lower conversion costs as they are still building their energy systems. As a result, the
available resource savings from clean energy may be greater in developing countries. Clean energy is of great
potential value to developing countries for another reason. Delivering energy to remote communities via an urban-
centred national grid, as is usually done in developed countries, entails the substantial expense of long-distance
transmission lines. Developing countries may be able to move directly to more efficient micro-grid systems without
the sunk cost of running wires far into remote areas. Still, they will need technology transfers and significant
financial support from the international community to make the transition.

Such an investment push requires governments to use all policy instruments at their disposal, including fiscal
policies, industrial policies, credit provision, financial regulation and welfare policies, as well as international trade
and investment policies. International coordination is critical to counteract the disruptive influence of capital
mobility, contain current-account imbalances and support the transition to a low-carbon economy, especially in
developing countries.

Strategies for sustainable development and economic growth can take a variety of paths but they must all correct
current patterns of aggregate demand. Leveraging the multiplicative effects of government spending and higher
labour incomes is a straightforward approach.
First, raising the shares of labour income towards the levels of a not-so-distant past can by itself lead to significantly
faster growth (0.5 per cent annually on average) thereby also increasing capital incomes. This effect will be
strongest if all or most countries act in a coordinated manner.

Second, a fiscal re-flation financed by progressive tax increases and credit creation would boost growth even more,
owing to fiscal multipliers in the range of 1.3 to 1.8 (or even higher if fiscal expansion takes place in many countries
in a coordinated way). In particular, with many economies currently experiencing weak or insufficient demand,
fiscal stimulus is likely to elicit a strong response of private investment.

Third, public investment in clean transport and energy systems is necessary to establish low-carbon growth paths
and transform food production for the growing global population, as well as to address problems of pollution and
environmental degradation more generally. This requires the design of appropriate industrial policies, using
subsidies, tax incentives, loans and guarantees, as well as investments in R&D and a new generation of intellectual
property and licensing laws.

Based on the existing estimates, an internationally coordinated policy package of redistribution, fiscal expansion and
state-led investment can realistically yield growth rates of GDP in developed economies of at least 1 per cent above
what could be expected without it. In developing economies other than China, growth rates will increase by about
1.5–2 per cent annually. China will have a more moderate acceleration as its growth axis bends towards the
household, with lower growth rates than the earlier East Asian tiger economies experienced when they had the
current per capita income of China.

By 2030, employment would increase above projections from current trends by approximately 20 million to 25
million jobs in developed countries and by more than 100 million jobs in developing countries (20 million to 30
million of which would be in China). These are conservative estimates that probably underestimate the employment
gains, because existing econometric estimates based on decades of job-shedding strategies cannot incorporate the
potential of a globally coordinated strategy centred on state-led investment and social spending, the expansion of
service employment and a new energy matrix.

Data on growth and employment as well as on environmental factors, suggest that bold efforts are necessary to
achieve global growth and development that are sustainable economically, socially and environmentally.

Estimates of multipliers for the world’s 20 largest economies and the remaining regional blocs indicate that this is a
matter of pragmatic policy choice, not of immutable financial constraints. A Global Green New Deal would require
additional financial resources – for less than a decade – generated through a mixture of domestic resource
mobilization and international cooperation agreements. Estimates also indicate that the growth impact of social
spending is high in all countries, while progressive taxation has little or no cost in terms of growth, pointing to a
future of higher labour incomes, lower inequality, stronger growth and a healthier environment that is available for
policymakers to choose.
International coordination is key both to mobilizing the required resources and to expanding policy space to manage
the changes involved. Today’s economic and geopolitical tensions do not bode well in this respect.

But it bears remembering that Franklin Delano Roosevelt called the founding of the International Labour
Organization at the end of the First World War “a wild dream”; and wild dreamers are exactly what may be needed
to deliver on the bold promises of the 2030 Agenda.
Extracted from ‘Trade and Development Report 2019: Financing a Global Green New Deal’ – a report by the
secretariat of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

The Leaders Summit on Climate Climate at the

center of new global transformation
2 weeks ago 2021, Archives, Int'l Affairs, June 2021 Leave a comment

The Leaders Summit on Climate

Climate at the center of new global transformation

On April 22, world leaders from 40 countries, 17 of them responsible for around 80 percent of the world’s
greenhouse gas emissions, held a virtual summit convened by US President Joe Biden. This summit, explicitly
designed to make up for the time lost by America’s withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement, will help the
administration relaunch the US in the global climate arena, and align global climate policy with its domestic
economic agenda. The ultimate goal is to have a carbon-neutral economy by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5
degrees Celsius, starting with a 50 percent reduction in carbon emissions by 2030.
 The world expects 2021 to be a turning point in the fight against climate
change. The Paris agreement was negotiated at the 21st Conference of Parties (COP 21) and opened for signature on
April 22, 2016, and then entered into force on Nov. 4, 2020, as the implementation tool for the period after 2020 of
the Framework Convention on Climate Change. In that respect, the annually-held COP26 as per the contract had
unique importance. However, it was not held in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic and is scheduled for November
this year.
The US, which has the greatest responsibility on a historical basis and is the second-largest greenhouse gas-emitter
on an annual basis, left the Paris agreement under the Trump administration and this decision set off a worldwide
reaction.
However, US President Joe Biden pledged to return to the Paris agreement during the 2020 presidential elections
(which also contributed greatly to his win) and he immediately kept his promise and put the US back in the process.
Biden made another initiative to improve the US’ image on environmental issues. In order to show that the US was
once again a pioneer in the world, Biden announced that he would hold a Climate Leaders Summit in April.
Meeting on Earth Day
The date for the summit, April 22, was significant because it is celebrated as Earth Day.
In 1968, 12 million litres of oil spilled on the shores of Santa Barbara. It suddenly drew attention to the increasing
environmental pressures.
Thereupon, the events held on April 22, 1970, watched by more than 20 million people also played a triggering role
in the US for legal regulations on “clean air and water.”
Since then, April 22 has been celebrated as the Earth Day. It was a day celebrated to draw attention to the health of
our world, global warming, and all kinds of environmental problems that we face.
The Paris agreement was opened for signatures on April 22, Earth Day, five years ago. Therefore, April 22 is also
the anniversary of this landmark accord.
Forty world leaders, were invited to the summit. Biden succeeded to revive the environmental sensitivity of the US
with the summit, which had deteriorated under the Trump administration.

Close to the summit

There were some developments just before the summit. The first of these was the talks between the US and China.
Two-day talks were held in Beijing with the climate change chief negotiators of both countries. As a result of the
meeting, they reached a consensus that the two countries will coordinate further to combat and adapt to climate
change, the cooperation and leadership of the two countries will be carried out in the implementation of agreements
such as the Framework Convention on Climate Change and Paris agreement. The two countries will also work
closely with other states to reach the targets of the Paris agreement target, as well as acting in line with the reduction
schedule in the Montreal Protocol, known as the Kigali Amendment, which stipulates the reduction of
hydrofluorocarbon (HCF) production and consumption over time.
Another important development took place exactly one day before the summit. Declaring the European Green
Consensus after COP25, the EU negotiated to reduce its carbon emissions by 2030 and to become a carbon-neutral
continent by 2050, under the green agreement.
As a result of very intense and tough negotiations, the European Commission reached a preliminary agreement to
reduce greenhouse gases by 55% compared to the 1990 level.
Headlines of the gathering

Due to the pandemic that locked down the world

for more than a year, the summit was held online. Countries emitting the most greenhouse gases such as China,
India, Japan, the EU and Russia were among the participants.
African countries Kenya and Gabon, which face severe repercussions of climate change even though they have little
contribution to gas emissions, as well as island states like the Marshall Islands and Antigua and Barbuda, who are at
risk of being submerged with the rise in sea levels, also participated.
The world has paid careful attention to the summit as the environmental problems have almost peaked ever since the
pandemic, and the public expects useful and serious steps.
More ambitious targets were expected to be shared in order to achieve the targets of keeping the global average
temperature increase below 1.5 degrees Celsius, if possible, compared to the pre-industrial temperature in 2050, as
envisaged by the Paris agreement.
Biden made the opening speech as the host. Mentioning the importance of collective action due to the insufficient
fight of any state with the effects of climate change, he announced new targets for 2030, which is the target year of
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The US has committed to reducing emissions by up to half

(50-52%) by 2030 compared to the 2005 value. The Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) given by
the US in the year the Paris deal was signed, was committed to reducing the 2005 emission values by 26-28% by
2025. Therefore, this new value is interpreted as exactly doubling the previous reduction value.
Furthermore, the US proposed $2-trillion infrastructure support package for areas such as green economy, renewable
energy investments, public transportation, and electric vehicles. Besides, it was announced that the US doubled its
support for developing countries’ adaptation phase.
This attitude of the US raised expectations for other major emitters to announce such targets. However, it was not
the case.
Despite the declarations of Biden, China and India, two of the major emitters, stated that they will continue to emit.
Brazil, on the other hand, asked the developed states to contribute $1 billion annually for the protection of the
Amazons.
A remarkable move was also expected from Japan since the previously offered reduction value of 26% of the
second-largest economy in the world but its inaction was disappointing.
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga partially met the expectations and shared a 46% decrease from 2013 values
by 2030 and a net-zero target by 2050.
A similar move came from Canada. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau raised the target upon foreseeing a 30%
reduction in emissions compared to 2005 in the National Contribution Statement submitted in 2015. Similar to the
US, it declared a 40-45% reduction target compared to 2005. He also called for urgent action on the grounds that no
vaccine could end the pollution of the planet.
On the other hand, China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, said that as a developing country, it would
continue its emissions until 2030, reach a peak value in 2030 and be carbon neutral in 2060.
However, China, which is responsible for almost half of coal-induced emissions, underlined that it will reduce its
use of coal by 2025.
Similarly, the fourth-largest greenhouse gas emitter, Russia, avoided specifying a net value. Russia stated that they
have fulfilled their responsibilities in combating climate change and that they will make significant reductions in the
next three decades.

Russia also called for a global reduction in methane

emissions, which is 84 times more greenhouse than carbon dioxide, while it has already halved its emissions
compared to 1990 values.
India, one of the other major emitters, did not announce a new commitment while stating that it was carrying out the
necessary works as it struggles to come to terms with the pandemic.
In this respect, India announced that 450 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy installed power will be built by 2030.
Besides, South Korean President Moon Jae-in stated that Korea will stop public support for coal power plants.
Country Commitments
Participants noted the need to work rapidly over the course of this decade to accelerate decarbonization efforts and
are taking a range of actions to that end. Announcements during this Session included, among others:
Japan will cut emissions 46-50% below 2013 levels by 2030, with strong efforts toward achieving a 50% reduction,
a significant acceleration from its existing 26% reduction goal.
Canada will strengthen its NDC to a 40-45% reduction from 2005 levels by 2030, a significant increase over its
previous target to reduce emissions 30% below 2005 levels by 2030.
India reiterated its target of 450 GW of renewable energy by 2030 and announced the launch of the “US-India 2030
Climate and Clean Energy Agenda 2030 Partnership” to mobilize finance and speed clean energy innovation and
deployment in this decade.
Argentina will strengthen its NDC, deploy more renewables, reduce methane emissions, and end illegal
deforestation.
The United Kingdom will embed in law a 78% GHG reduction below 1990 levels by 2035.
The European Union is putting into law a target of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030
and a net zero target by 2050.
The Republic of Korea, which will host the 2021 P4G Seoul Summit in May, will terminate public overseas coal
finance and strengthen its NDC this year to be consistent with its 2050 net zero goal.
China indicated that it will join the Kigali Amendment, strengthen the control of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, strictly
control coal-fired power generation projects, and phase down coal consumption.
Brazil committed to achieve net zero by 2050, end illegal deforestation by 2030, and double funding for
deforestation enforcement.
South Africa announced that it intends to strengthen its NDC and shift its intended emissions peak year ten years
earlier to 2025.
Russia noted the importance of carbon capture and storage from all sources, as well as atmospheric carbon removals.
It also highlighted the importance of methane and called for international collaboration to address this powerful
greenhouse gas.

Pakistan’s Stance
President Biden had promised to convene a global summit of world leaders to agree on a number of new initiatives
they could take to arrest global warming which was occurring at a rate faster than assumed during the Paris 2015
deliberations. The US State Department issued invitations to 40 heads of state to attend the “virtual summit”.
Pakistan was a surprising omission from the list of the invitees although it was likely to be seriously affected by
global warming. Ignoring Pakistan appeared to be part of the Biden government’s approach to world affairs. John
Kerry, former secretary of state in the Obama administration and now given the responsibility for climate policies
and their implementation in the Biden White House, passed over Pakistan while visiting South Asia. He went to
Bangladesh and India.
After the initial snub, Pakistan was invited to the Summit and the country was represented by Special Assistant to
the Prime Minister on Climate Change, Malik Amin Aslam. In his address, the SAPM reiterated that Pakistan is
amongst the worst- affected countries in terms of climate impact, and identified measures being championed by his
government to address climate change. Stressing that the world needs to get off the warpath with nature, which
would only exacerbate disasters, he called upon the global community to ‘do more’ on the global climate action to
protect the world community from unfolding deleterious impacts of climate change.
The writer is a Lahore-based freelance columnist, having special interest ini global affairs.

Climate Anxiety
March 19, 2020 2020, Archives, General, March 2020 Leave a comment

Climate Anxiety 
Our climate is changing at an accelerated rate and continues to have profound impacts on human health.
This change jeopardizes not only physical health but also mental health. Climate change harms mental
wellbeing in a number of ways. From trauma and stress following disasters, to relationship damage caused by
separation and displacement, the psychological effects of climate change can be enduring. Polls have found
that worry about climate change is affecting more people as global warming becomes more apparent around
the world.
it makes sense is the first thing to say about the phenomenon being described by psychologists as climate anxiety.
Wherever in the world you live, there are very good reasons to feel anxious about the rate of global heating and the
lack of adequate action to tackle it by governments, businesses and organisations of all sorts.
The predicted consequences are frightening: hotter weather in already inhospitable places, sea-level rises caused by
melting ice sheets, and increased disruption of weather systems leading to floods, fires, hurricanes, food and water
shortages—with the linked biodiversity crisis another cause for grave concern. Depending on the steps that are taken
(or not) over the next decade, a period during which the UN estimates that carbon emissions need to be cut by 7.6%
annually, if we are to avoid temperature rises above 1.5c̊, the disruption caused to human societies could be
immense. For countries such as Pakistan, the effects are likely to be devastating.

Given all this, it arguably makes more sense to be anxious than not. And climate anxiety is one way of describing
the motivations of every person or organisation that is trying to do something to limit or to mitigate the effects of
global heating—whether an individual altering their diet, a charity switching energy supplier, a council setting
emissions targets or the Guardian deciding to stop selling advertising space to fossil fuel companies.

But, as with all negative emotions, the trick is to distinguish ordinary feelings —what Sigmund Freud famously
called “common unhappiness”— from those that are disproportionate, or so intense and prolonged as to be
debilitating. While it makes sense to be worried about the climate emergency, becoming overwhelmed is counter-
productive. The sound advice from psychologists that actions, however small, can help to alleviate feelings of
distress and powerlessness echoes the experiences of activists including Jane Fonda that “the minute you start doing
something, the depression goes away”.

Not all low moods are readily lifted, however, and warnings of worsening mental health as a result of climate
disruptions and hardships should be taken seriously. Already there is cause for concern, with research showing that
people who have experienced extreme weather such as floods in the UK are 50% more likely to suffer from
problems including depression. Resilience may be a desirable quality, but is much more easily developed by those

who are cushioned by income or advantage.

Growing demand for psychological support should be met by professionals who are able to distinguish everyday
worries from post-traumatic stress or other symptoms. Disasters on the scale of Australia’s recent bush fires and
Indonesia’s floods can be expected to produce severe mental as well as physical reactions, particularly in children
and other vulnerable groups. In some parts of the world, trauma is already normalised, and when psychologists write
of their fear that it could become ubiquitous, policymakers everywhere should take notice.

But it is important to remember that there are reasons to hope, as well as despair. As the environmental scientist
Vaclav Smil said last year, “We [humans] are stupid, we are negligent, we are tardy. But on the other hand, we are
adaptable, we are smart and even as things are falling apart, we are trying to stitch them together.”

Not a decade to spare for climate action

March 19, 2020 2020, Archives, General, March 2020 Leave a comment
 Not a decade to spare for climate
action
Scientists have been sounding the alarm for decades that climate change is real and getting worse. As the adverse
effects of unabated emissions keep mounting, the alarm is becoming deafening. But, at the same time, other current
realities cannot be ignored. The imminent threat posed by climate change is coinciding with shifts in long-standing
geopolitical alliances; continuing economic inequality, which is fuelling social unrest in many countries; and the
advent of artificial intelligence (AI), big data and a constant stream of new technologies, which are transforming the
way we live and work—with both positive and negative consequences.
The challenges are daunting. But it is not too late to chart a different course for our planet and its inhabitants. We
need to put the world’s best minds to work now on finding solutions that will not only help us mitigate and adapt to
climate change, but will also reduce inequality, lift people out of poverty, and build trust in international
cooperation. We must find ways to harness the best that technology has to offer while anticipating and mitigating
potential harms. And we can ill afford another decade of inaction—the consequences are far too high.

This is why the Nobel Foundation is hosting its first-ever Nobel Prize Summit, with the theme “Our Planet, Our
Future,” in Washington, DC, from April 29 to May 01. The summit, supported by the US National Academy of
Sciences, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and the Stockholm Resilience Centre/Beijer Institute,
will bring together more than 20 Nobel laureates and other experts from around the world to explore the question:
What can be achieved in this decade to put the world on a path to a more sustainable, more prosperous future for all
of humanity?

The summit takes place at a pivotal moment. This year, the United Nations launches the Decade of Action toward
achieving its Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. Countries around the world will be making transformational
decisions regarding biodiversity loss, climate change, and the state of our oceans. Demand for action is also
growing. In the past few months, prominent global business leaders have pledged to make sustainability a top
priority in their investment decisions. And in many parts of the world, young climate activists are drawing the
world’s attention through rolling school strikes.

Amid this flurry of activity, the Nobel Prize Summit will provide the space to propose real-world solutions grounded
in science and evidence. The summit will create a new platform for scientists, policymakers, business leaders, and
civil-society groups to meet and share ideas.

Today’s leaders must not bequeath a dangerously destabilized planet to future generations, and we will be placing
special emphasis on engagement with today’s young people. But we all have a shared responsibility to make this a
better world. If we start now, this decade can become the turning point that puts us on course toward a more vibrant,
viable, and equitable future for humanity.

Make a healthy climate a legal right that extends

to future generations
November 7, 2019 2019, Archives, Exam Pack, November 2019, Others, Study Kit Leave a comment
 Make a healthy climate a legal right
that extends to future generations
 
Noted British magazine The Economist recently held its ‘Open Future Essay Competition 2019’ on the
question “What fundamental economic and political change, if any, is needed for an effective response to
climate change?” Following is the winning essay of the Competition that beat nearly 2,400 entries from over
110 countries. It was penned by Larissa Parker who is a research associate at the McGill Law, Governance
and Society Lab and works with the Youth Climate Lab.
In March 2019 I joined over 100,000 young people to strike in the streets of Montreal. We claimed the downtown
area for hours, demanding increased climate action from our decision-makers. Children of all ages attended,
marching for their right to grow up in a healthy world.
In the last decade the not-in-my-backyard phenomenon has turned into a not-in-my-lifetime one. After attending the
United Nations climate conferences as a youth delegate for years, I have watched governments around the world put
short-term economic gain before the long-term well-being of the planet and my generation. Although 195 nations
committed to rapidly reduce greenhouse-gas emissions to keep the global average temperature well below 2°C
relative to pre-industrial levels, many countries are nowhere near achieving their targets. In Canada, for example,
current policy decisions have resulted not only in no reductions, but an increase in greenhouse-gas emissions. The
latest national inventory report indicated that emissions rose by 8m tonnes from 2016 to 2017, an increase of about
1%.

This accountability problem is rampant across the world, yet few legal systems are equipped to address it. Although
climate litigation is becoming a new front for climate action, with hundreds of cases arising around the world, they
are limited in scope. Today, for the most part, only current generations have legal standing to sue; and to do so, they
have to prove the impacts that they have experienced or are experiencing. This is problematic in the context of
climate change because the effects of greenhouse-gas emissions take decades to manifest themselves. This renders it
incredibly difficult to contest today’s polluting activities as their impacts have not been felt yet. It is also why
governments feel little pressure to meet their commitments or take strong action.

I came to law school with high hopes of changing this. One solution is to recognise the rights of future generations
to a healthy environment, which would open the door for lawsuits on climate inaction and keep governments
accountable to their commitments under international law. If a government does not take sufficient action on climate
change now, then it is not doing enough to prevent harm to future generations, thus violating their rights to a healthy
environment.

The problem arises from the legal standing of future generations—or lack thereof, for they are generally not
currently considered identifiable individuals under the law. Although it is easy to grasp their fundamental interest in
a healthy environment, the law is reluctant to grant them recognition. This is because most of those individuals have
not been born yet. How or when they will experience the impacts of climate change remains undetermined.
Nevertheless, they represent our children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren. It is conceivable that, at the very
least, we have a duty to ensure they inherit the planet in a condition that is comparable to ours.
This type of thinking has already led a handful of legal systems to begin recognising such rights, at least in limited
form. Most famously, in Oposa v Factoran, the Supreme Court of the Philippines accepted that a class action could
be filed on behalf of future generations to denounce logging licences. Notably, the court also affirmed that natural
resources are held in trust for the benefit of present and future generations, and that the government was
consequently required to protect them. A similar case was introduced in Pakistan in 2015, where a seven-year-old
girl, represented by her father, filed a petition against the state for violating the constitutional rights of today’s youth
and future generations because of its failure to combat climate change. In 2016 Pakistan’s Supreme Court allowed
the case to proceed. It is still pending. Several cases against governments in the United States, Canada and Britain
are also in progress.

Although it has limitations and is often slow, the ability of the law to modify and enforce norms, values and
behaviour is significant. Through legislative and administrative developments, as well as through judicial
reinterpretations of constitutions, statutes or precedents, law has the power to articulate the course for social
transformation. Take Edwards v Canada (AG)—a famous Canadian case which ruled in 1928 that women were
eligible to sit in Canada’s Senate. At the time, women were not yet considered “persons” as far as the constitution
was concerned. The decision redrew the boundary around who could be considered a ‘person’ under the law and
ensured that women would no longer be denied rights based on its narrow interpretation.

There are advantages that come from granting rights and legal standing. For all their shortcomings, legal rulings are
often seen as legitimate, authoritative and enforceable because of the independence of the judiciary. And legal
decisions tend to set precedent for years to come.

Of course, the law does not do this on its own. It usually occurs in response to a shift in a society’s values. To me,
this shift is increasingly evident in the climate movement. A rising number of youth around the world are coming
together to urge their governments to take stronger action to combat climate change and avoid its catastrophic
effects. They are engaging in civil disobedience, such as school strikes, and have initiated lawsuits to stop various
polluting activities or to demand stronger policy responses.

I hope that before long judges and decision-makers heed these voices; they are only getting louder. The slow-onset
nature of climate change, and the difficulties of establishing accountability from one generation to the next, make it
necessary to develop and adopt new legal principles that articulate the rights and obligations underpinning
intergenerational equity. Formal recognition of the rights of future generations would expand the scope of climate
litigation and allow present-day litigants to sue on their behalf. Although it is simply one path of many that will be
required to achieve climate justice, enshrining the rights of future generations to a healthy Earth could have lasting
impacts on judicial and policy decisions for decades to come.
                                                                                                                               
How to respond to climate change
The Economist fed the essay question and the 58-word description through a natural-language processing algorithm
called GPT-2, released publicly in February by OpenAI, a group working on AI research and ethics, based in San
Francisco, USA. The result was six roughly 400-word texts. The Mag took the larger parts of three of them and
placed them one after another with no other editing. The AI-written essay is below.

 Question: What fundamental economic and political change, if any, is needed for an effective response to
climate change?
1. Do we want to go through the same process we have been through for decades with no changes?

Is there a way to build a sustainable energy system that is both affordable and environmentally responsible? The
basic premise behind this article is that we need to transform the economics of our energy system by investing in the
necessary infrastructure so that it will be affordable for everyone.

An Alternative Economy Is Possible

In our world of perpetual growth, we have an abundance of energy and the means to create the abundance we need.
We are very conscious of the fact that not all people have the means to sustainably create, store and use energy. The
reason? We are the ones with the means to use it and create the economic opportunity to do so, and we are the ones
who will own and use the means of production. The only reason we don’t do this is because we don’t fully realize
the economic implications of what we will be creating.

But why does this matter?

 There is a fundamental paradigm shift that needs to happen if we are to build sustainable energy systems at the scale
that we need to. Here is the scenario:

The world gets off of fossil fuels and starts producing entirely new and clean energy sources.

The world needs to build a system that maximizes the economic opportunities for working people.

For the first time in history, the world can be energy independent, allowing all people within our global communities
to work together to create the economic opportunity we have all sought for decades now.

With this paradigm shift in mind, it’s perhaps time we take a moment to reflect on what we could do differently.

Is it possible to create an economy that produces enough energy to feed all the people on the planet?

Is it possible to build a system that is neither a fossil fuel nor a nuclear power plant yet has the potential to be the
first and only system that maximizes the economic opportunities for all people?

Let’s explore these questions and why they matter.

1. What Do We Need?

It has long been known that the rate of carbon emissions growth is rapidly declining, in part due to improvements in
technology, including those to harness the earth’s abundant carbon resources. But what can be done to slow and
even stop this pace of global growth? And what, if anything, needs to change in order to achieve a sustainable long-
term solution to the problem of climate change?

A number of factors have been put forward. One is a rethinking of the economic model of the development
economy. A related change is the rise of a new paradigm known as energy-efficiency. A more efficient, less energy-
intensive way of doing business also involves a shift in thinking about the economic and social context of global
warming and the importance of carbon reduction in a changing environment. Finally, it should be noted that while
many countries have reduced their carbon emissions, some countries are still growing their emissions at a greater
rate than others.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has called for a three-way approach to dealing with climate
change, in which governments, rich and poor, seek to reduce emissions, the developing countries to take steps to
combat climate change and the developing countries to take steps to adapt to climate change. The IPCC also
recognizes that the best way to manage climate change is through adaptation to change and mitigation.

How Will We Respond?

While the IPCC’s report is the most comprehensive and comprehensive global assessment of the climate change
problem to date, it is still an incomplete picture. While the IPCC has proposed a number of important measures, its
recommendations are based on incomplete assessments. It is likely that much more will be required before the issue
is addressed, and some of the problems identified in the IPCC report will be very real.

One important step would be to examine how we can respond to global warming by taking steps to meet the goals
the agency has set for reducing emissions, such as the reduction of emissions from the power sector by 20 percent
below 2005 levels, from the transportation sector by 30 percent below 2005 levels, and from the energy sector by 30
percent below 2005 levels. By doing so, the IPCC may also help to shape the course of action and help ensure that
the United States and other developed nations will be able to deal with the issue and adapt in a cost-effective and
sustainable way so as to meet the challenge.

III. The answer may lie in a different world.

To deal with the increase in human population, the value of the earth’s wealth will increase at the same pace.

This means that unless massive and rapid improvements in the technology to harness the immense productivity of
the earth’s resources can be made, the earth’s future is in serious danger. The Earth’s resources will become less
abundant, the world’s population will rise rapidly, and a new type of natural disaster is increasingly likely.

The rapid increase in the value of the world’s wealth will reduce the amount of energy available for conservation
and economic development, and will therefore increase the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere.

This will cause more extreme weather, more violent and often violent conflict, and more frequent and severe
droughts.
This will increase the risk of famine and the rise of disease and other infectious diseases. In addition, increasing
income and wealth will allow more people to enter the cities and develop more damaging forms of pollution.

On a global scale, the impacts of global warming will become worse and greater, creating new conditions and
opportunities for environmental destruction, with more extreme weather events, more severe droughts, and more
frequent and severe weather events.

We must recognize this risk to the future of human civilization, and act now to respond.

UN Climate Action Summit

October 22, 2019 2019, Archives, General, October 2019, Others Leave a comment
 UN Climate Action Summit
At this year’s UN Climate Action Summit, world leaders have gathered to share plans on how to tackle global
warming. At the Summit, governments and private-sector leaders unveiled initiatives aimed at reducing planet-
warming emissions. Close to 30 global initiatives to ramp up action on climate change were unveiled or expanded.
Bringing together governments, businesses, development banks, cities and green groups, they cover everything from
zero-carbon buildings to cleaning up air pollution and a platform for poor countries to access international finance
for clean energy.

Secretary-General Antonio Guterres concluded the summit by listing 77 countries that committed to carbon
neutrality by 2050, though those countries combined produce far less than half the world’s carbon dioxide
emissions. Seventy nations also pledged to do more to fight climate change, 100 business leaders promised to join
the green economy and one-third of the global banking sector signed up to green goals.

The Age of Massive Global Changes

May 8, 2019 Int'l Affairs, May 2019 Leave a comment
By: Munir-uz-Zaman

Fundamental changes are taking place in the international

system at a rapid pace. In fact, past 20 years have seen more
changes than in the previous 200 years of world history. These
changes are all-encompassing and span many spectra, including
geostrategic, political, economic and societal.
A significant change is taking place in the geo-strategic space; we are witnessing the rise of new powers. We are
indeed in a moment of transition: from a unipolar to a multipolar world. The rise of the East has brought forth new
economic powers like China, regional powers such as India, and power blocs like BRICS, EU and ASEAN. This
transformation has also brought forth geo-maritime strategies like the Belt and Road Initiative and the Indo-Pacific
Strategy which can prove to be competitive, and even confrontational, in the near future.

In the political arena, this shift has been towards the exercise of rights and increased political aspirations. With the
state gradually losing its exclusivity over information, the civil society has risen across the globe. All this, however,
is under threat as we are now witnessing a surge in nationalism and chauvinism. This has also given birth to more
authoritarian regimes such as those in Turkey and Central African Republic and the growth of hybrid democracies
like in Cambodia. Rapid transformation in the economic realm has brought forth benefits of globalization, and
market mobility has opened up enormous opportunities for people. At the same time, it has also invited gross
income inequality which has sowed the seeds of discontent amongst people throughout the world.

Perhaps, one of the most volatile arenas of change has been in the field of environment and climate change. As
human-induced conditions continue to trigger global temperature rise, the risks of food, water and health, as well as
those of livelihood insecurity are at their peak. One of the most significant resultant impacts of climate change will
be large-scale displacements of populations. With certain possibility of rising sea levels, millions of people will
become climate refugees, causing social upheaval and even inter-state conflict.

We are also at a moment of transition when it comes to energy since we are trying to move away from fossil fuel
dependency to a non-carbon economy. There is thus the possibility of wide-scale transformation in the energy sector
with cleaner, renewable energy now being a priority. This is not an easy transformation and, if not managed well, it
might cause massive socio-economic disruptions.
Some of the most exciting changes that are happening are in the field of digitalization. Access to digital technology
has never been this prevalent – today, over three billion people in the world carry a “supercomputer” in their pockets
in the form of a smartphone. New technologies being created by Artificial Intelligence, robotics, Big Data, etc., will
completely change the way we live, communicate, educate and even the way we think. It is indeed a “GAFA”
(Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple) world, but this will also come at a cost in the short run as these emerging
technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution will take away our known skills, expertise and our jobs. If we are
able to adapt well and re-skill ourselves, and rethink how our societies can function, the number of new
opportunities will be greater than those we will have lost.

At social level, we are seeing major transformations when it comes to women’s empowerment—the #MeToo
campaign being a good example. These transformations have brought forth new opportunities for women around the
world.

On the demographic front, the changes are equally massive. On the one hand, we are seeing a rapid increase in the
global population with almost 83 million people being added each year, and the presence of the youth bulge in many
countries in the developing world, on the other. At the same time, the world is witnessing declining populations in
countries such as Russia and Japan.

A changing world creates both risks and opportunities. In the age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, advanced
technology and globalization are unleashing a period of unprecedented innovation that could alter our work, lives
and the “known world”. There are some countries that are trying to resist these seismic changes, but there are also
others that are embracing this transformation and the potential to design and build a safer, smarter, healthier and a
more sustainable world.

The climate conundrum

October 3, 2018 Daily Articles Leave a comment
Climate change is one of the major challenges faced by the modern world. It is a peril that will continue to have an
impact on our planet for the next 100 years or so.

Unfortunately, Pakistan is among the countries that are going to be negatively affected by climate change. Pakistan
has persistently fallen victim to extreme weather conditions. This has been further exacerbated by poverty and
scarce resources. Climate change has the potential to become a critical problem for Pakistan in the future.

In order to gauge the potential impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture, health, energy, and other
socioeconomic parameters, it is essential to obtain more information about climate variability. Moreover, it is
imperative to predict the future climatic conditions of a region before planning mitigation strategies in an ever-
changing climate.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) outlines that for economies dependent on agriculture –
such as Pakistan – the sensitivity to the threats of climate change arises from distinct socioeconomic, geographic and
demographic factors that determine a country’s vulnerability profile.

A recent report by the World Bank has indicated the negative impacts on the living standards of people in Pakistan,
India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka due to changes in weather conditions in South Asia. The study conducted on future
projections of climate change confirms Pakistan’s vulnerability in this regard.

According to a study conducted by the Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), the average temperature in
Pakistan has increased to 0.5 degrees Centigrade and the extreme temperature increase has been between 0.7 degrees
Centigrade and 0.8 degrees Centigrade over the past 50 years. The research shows that it is projected to rise to
between 1.5 degrees Centigrade and two degrees Centigrade, and between three degrees Centigrade and 4.5 degrees
Centigrade based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs)-4.5 and RCP-8.5 emission scenarios in the
21st century.
The RCPs describe the 21st century pathways of greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric concentrations and air-
pollutant emissions. RCP-4.5 represents stabilised greenhouse gases emissions while RCP-8.5 signifies very high
greenhouse gas emissions over time. In addition, the annual mean precipitation is projected to increase across the
entire country, with the maximum level of rainfall being shifted towards the north-eastern parts of Pakistan. The
monsoon season, which is vital for the agricultural sector, also shows a trend towards an earlier onset time, ie
towards the end of June.

Another study by the GCISC on the future climatic changes in the 21st century in Pakistan depicts the highest
increase in temperature in the northern parts to be approximately between three degrees Centigrade and 5.5 degrees
Centigrade. This phenomenon is also referred to as elevation-dependent warming, which indicates that climate
change is occurring in the north region with a higher intensity.

This increase in temperature is higher in spring and winter than it is in summer. With time, these changes in
temperature have the potential to melt snow in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) at a higher rate. This increased snow
melt could lead to a high river flow that, due to the absence of any controlling reservoirs like dams and limited flood
management systems, may adversely affect the UIB. As a result, there is a dire need to build new water reservoirs to
conserve surplus water from glaciers to ensure food security, meet energy requirements, and eliminate the threat of
floods.

Since the environment is intertwined in a complex feedback system, a change in one factor could ultimately disturb
another. Vivid effects can, therefore, be seen in terms of floods, droughts, heatwaves and other climatic extremes.
The 2010 floods, the prolonged drought in Tharparkar and Sindh from 2014 to 2017, and the heatwave in Karachi in
2015 reinforce the fact that Pakistan continues to be adversely affected by climate change. The future appears
equally bleak.

Science has already confirmed Pakistan’s vulnerability to climatic extremes. Over the past 50 years, cold spells have
been decreasing across the four provinces. Another comprehensive study on future climatic extremes by researchers
of the Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) shows the increasing risk in future extreme events in terms of
intensity and frequency across Pakistan. The magnitude and frequency of temperature extremes is increasing –
which may occur frequently in the future.

It is worthwhile to note that temperature extremes are devastating in the northern areas of Pakistan, with an increase
of 4.8 degrees Centigrade. The monsoon region has witnessed a temperature surge of 4.5 degrees Centigrade while
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa experienced an increase of 4.3 degrees Centigrade. These surges in temperature could further
exacerbate glacier melts, render the monsoon spell unpredictable, and result in an increase in flash floods. Intense
precipitation is expected in the monsoon region and the northern parts of Pakistan, which indicates that Punjab and
KP are more vulnerable to climate change. In southern Punjab and Sindh, the vulnerability is high when it comes to
agriculture and irrigation.

All provinces, therefore, need to take immediate steps to reduce this vulnerability. After the 18th Amendment, the
subjects of the environment, food and agriculture have been delegated to the provinces. But experts believe that this
issue is multidimensional and no province can handle it on its own.

Climate change is a pressing issue for Pakistan, even though its share in the global carbon trajectory is only 0.43
percent – which is negligible as compared to that of the developed world. As a developing nation, the only option
available for Pakistan is to combat climate change through adaptation. Such strategies can help protect its vulnerable
population from the phenomenon.

Pakistan should develop a climate-resilient infrastructure that can withstand unpredictable weather events. Such
adaptive options could include climate-resilient irrigation systems; efficient water supply and sewage systems;
upgraded watershed management; high-standard transportation networks; and sustainable infrastructure. These are
referred to as hard mitigation options. Meanwhile, soft mitigation options entail awareness-raising activities,
capacity-building trainings for locals through seminars and workshops, and increased support to the community.

Like other developing countries, Pakistan needs to incorporate a climate change agenda in the development sector.
This can help to sustain our water resources, agriculture, forests and economy. It can also help in preventing
disasters, and improving healthcare and sanitation through better planning and a long-term vision. Unfortunately,
implementation and action by government institutions has not been as swift as expected. Although our country has a
policy on climate change, there are major bottlenecks in its execution and implementation to date.

It has been a year since the Pakistan Climate Change Act, 2017 was approved. While the legislation has revived
hope, the lack of political will has slowed down progress on climate action. No development has been made with
reference to the National Climate Change Council. Though the environment and climate change has been
institutionalised, it has taken time for these issues to gain acceptance. In this respect, the government’s approach has
been inconsistent and has mostly been dependent on impromptu reactions.

The involvement of all stakeholders along with vertical and horizontal coordination efforts among federal,
provincial and local government departments are vital to implement all policies and laws. Another challenge
involves the lack of access to relevant information. In this regard, there is a need to improve data on climate change
in Pakistan. With a responsible personal attitude, access to data, effective research, and a thorough implementation
of policies and laws, we as a nation can competently confront the challenge of climate change.

By: Alia Saeed, Danyal Aziz, Dr Shaukat Ali, Muhammad Arif Goheer, Rida Sehar Kiani
Source: https://www.thenews.com.pk

Are politicians really serious about the climate?

September 7, 2018 Daily Articles Leave a comment

PAKISTAN may already be on the brink of an environmental disaster, but political parties seem to be in no hurry to
formulate a cohesive strategy to avert it.

Although the environment and climate change are considered national security issues, politicians are simply not
ready to understand them, said Dr Muhammad Irfan Khan, an environmental scientist and professor at the
International Islamic University in Islamabad, while speaking to Dawn recently.

“National security can be divided into three parts: water security, energy security and food security. Nuclear
weapons cannot protect a country if it lacks water, food and energy. We have the example of the Soviet Union,
which could not survive despite having a huge number of nuclear weapons,” he stated.

Rising temperatures will melt glaciers and cause either floods or droughts

He said the next government needs to understand that Pakistan’s contribution to global greenhouse gases was less
than one per cent, yet the country is among five to eight countries that are most vulnerable to climate change.

“We get most of our water through glaciers. We will face devastating floods in the future because of increasing
temperatures that will melt the glaciers rapidly. We will face either floods or droughts in different years. If we want
to save ourselves from floods, we have to build dams to store water,” Dr Khan said.
He said that no political party was ready to understand the gravity of the situation. Their focus is on roads and metro
bus projects, which will further complicate the problem instead of addressing it, he added.
“Unfortunately, our political parties don’t realise that our issues cannot be addressed by ensuring military security
only. They need to understand that the environment and climate change need more focus than other issues,” he said.

The PPP manifesto claims that going beyond the 2016 ratification of the Paris Agreement by Pakistan, the PPP will
develop, mainstream and implement a national action plan that can fulfil international commitments and meet local
needs.

The Paris Agreement is an accord within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change dealing
with greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, adaptation and finance starting in 2020.

“We will do so by pushing a Pakistan Climate Change Act along with a 10-year National Strategy Action Plan for
parliamentary debate and approval within the first 100 days of the government,” the manifesto states.

The PML-N manifesto said Pakistan needs a rapid and effective response to the dangers posed by climate change
and environmental degradation that has occurred over the last decades. In its previous term, the PML-N prepared the
first framework for the implementation of the climate change policy (2014-30), ratified the Paris Climate Agreement
and became one of the handful of countries that passed a law dedicated to climate change, the Pakistan Climate
Change Act 2017.

The PML-N claimed that the approval of the first water policy was another landmark achievement. In the last five
years, the PML-N government has built a strong foundation to fight the menace of climate change, it said. Over the
next five years, the PML-N promises to enact aggressive reforms under agreements and legal framework established
during the previous tenure of the party.

Talking to Dawn,Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) Information Secretary Fawad Chaudhry said the PTI was the only
political party that gave real importance to climate change during the last five years.

“We have given the concept of one-billion-tree tsunami. We have been giving priority to climate change. We have a
comprehensive plan to deal with climate change,” he claimed.

By: Ikram Junaidi

Source: https://www.dawn.com

Countervailing the climate crisis

July 26, 2018 Daily Articles Leave a comment
Pakistan presents some of the most breathtaking landscapes, with glacier-topped mountain ranges in the north to the
sea and desert in the south. But the same climatic and topographical diversity makes it among the top 10 countries
that are most vulnerable to climate change.

The last decade has seen Pakistan battered by the full force of nature’s wrath, with erratic rainfall triggering a
devastating deluge in one year and causing severe droughts in the next. The unpredictability of global climate
change, characterised by extreme events, has led to destabilised glaciers, cyclones, urban flooding, landslides and
record-breaking heatwaves, which led to hundreds of deaths in Karachi in 2015 and produced sizzling temperatures.
Against this backdrop and with the elections around the corner, it is time for political parties to address the risks of
climate change and strategise solutions to tough climate-related problems.

According to the Paris Agreement, the global temperatures must not increase beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius to three
degrees Celsius by the end of the century, as against the three degrees Celsius to six degrees Celsius rise in annual
mean temperature projections for Pakistan for the same period under different scenarios. As things stand now, we
have a one degree Celsius increase in temperature. But it is time to take some crucial decisions. While we may not
be the chief suspects responsible for this state of affairs, the list of challenges confronting us is quite long.

The increasing temperatures are directly linked to the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs). These GHGs include
the naturally-occurring gases – like carbon dioxide, methane, water vapour and nitrous oxide – and the synthetic
ones – such as chlorofluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride.

Due to the trend of global warming, the number of heatwave days per year has increased by nearly fivefold over the
last 30 years. This may cause deaths, and impinge on water availability and agricultural productivity. The
extraordinarily high summer temperatures are likely to also increase the demand for electricity and air-conditioning,
bringing power generation under increasing stress.

In our case, the transport, energy and farming sectors, and waste are the largest contributors of the GHG emissions.
The countrywide temperature profile is further complicated by massive deforestation across all regions.
Traffic emissions are a major source of GHGs and particulate matter. In many urban centres, the latter can be
witnessed as a perpetual presence in the form of a thick layer of haze that complicates the respiratory sickness
profile due to unchecked traffic emissions.

Pollution is often attributed to old vehicles. But it is critical to employ cleaner and alternative fuels to cut down on
harmful emissions. Taxation regimes that favour cleaner fuels are an essential policy intervention that our political
parties must focus on.

In the farming sector, cow dung and the use of flood irrigation in paddy cultivation are the biggest sources of
methane and a strong trigger for temperature increases. Cow dung is often utilised for biogas generation and is being
aggressively employed across the world as a renewable, cleaner and stable source of electricity. The IAEA energy
forecasts cite the potential of bioenergy in meeting over a quarter of global demands for transportation fuels by
2050. Through political will, a favourable tax regime, and subsidies, biogas has the potential to overcome domestic
fuel needs, provide multiple socioeconomic benefits to farmers, and slash GHG emissions.

The use of flood irrigation for rice cultivation is another major source of methane. A government policy that
enforces a shift towards furrow and drip irrigation techniques would not only save water by as much 10 times, but
would also reduce global warming.

A major reason for our high GHG profile is the incessant deforestation that has reduced forest cover to less than four
percent. The accepted principle is to have at least 20 percent of forest cover to moderate weather conditions,
normalise precipitation variability, increase moisture in the atmosphere by bringing temperature down, and cause
cloud formation. In addition, it controls soil erosion and absorbs particulate matter.

In our country, the oil, gas and coal lobbies are quite influential in the policy circles. Oblivious to environmental
concerns, several o power plants are employing coal, which has contributed to a smog in Punjab and other problems.
The political commitment must be to bind the coal-power industry to control GHG emissions by installing
mandatory filters and super-critical boilers to cut down harmful emissions. We also need to move towards a power
mix and shun environmentally costly projects.

Alongside the coal power plants that emit noxious gases and smoke, brick kilns across Punjab burn old tyres as a
cheap source of fuel, emitting thick black smoke that comprises GHG and contributes to the smog nuisance in
Punjab. Aligned with this is the burning of the residue of rice and sugarcane crops, which has emerged as a major
source of smog in Punjab as well as a source of glacial destabilisation. It is time for the provincial administration to
help farmers remove agricultural waste from farms. A useful policy enforcement could be to use threshers that
remove rice from the plant and run ploughs over it, returning nutrients to the soil as an organic fertiliser. The same
treatment could be employed for the sugarcane crop residue.

Rising temperatures are causing glaciers to recede, which could make future water availability a serious challenge.
Pakistan has over 7,000 glaciers spread across three mountain ranges: the Himalayas, the Hindu Kush and the
Karakoram Range. The glaciers across the Himalayas and the Hindu Kush are increasingly becoming unstable,
leading to avalanches and flashfloods from the glacial lakes, which are formed as a result of enhanced melting – a
phenomenon referred to as glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF).

The Ministry of Climate Change has recently identified that the number of glacial lakes have alarmingly increased to
3,000 from 2,400 in 2010 in and around Gilgit-Baltistan and parts of Chitral. The ministry reports that as many as 50
GLOFs that can burst from its seams “anytime”, wreaking havoc on people living in nearby villages.

The culprit once again are the rising temperatures due to GHGs in the atmosphere from traffic emissions – which are
expected to rise to high levels with CPEC taking shape – and the wind cycle from Punjab in winter that are laden
with GHGs emitted from the burning of crop waste. In addition, the wind flows from the eastern side, which is laden
with carbon from the steel smelting units from across the border, can also be blamed for this. We pay a high
environmental cost as carbon from all these sources settles on ice and stimulates aggressive melting.

The change in the snowfall patterns due to the warming tendency is hampering glacial development. Over the years,
snowfall occurs right near the end of winter. While the snow has hardly started to consolidate and turn into a glacier,
the summer season melts away the still-soft snow.

The threat to the glaciers can be controlled in the long term if deforestation is reversed by planting poplar and
eucalyptus trees alongside the slow-growing indigenous pine species. A useful policy intervention could be to use
the hydel-solar fuel mix to reap maximum benefits. In summer, hydel power generation could address power
deficiencies. In winter, solar energy could meet heating requirements. The regeneration of forest cover along the
CPEC route could also help absorb aggravated traffic emissions and offset harmful GHG emissions.

Another immediate and grave threat to glaciers is rapid urbanisation in the mountainous areas. This is a sensitive
issue and a balanced approach to outlaw real estate is required in certain vulnerable areas. We must also develop
small urban units with intermingled green zones to countervail the environmental damage.

By: Amjad Bashir Siddiqi

Source: https://www.thenews.com.pk

Report on climate risks and food security analysis

launched
June 11, 2018 Daily Articles Leave a comment
ISLAMABAD: Federal Minister for Climate Change Senator Mushahidullah Khan addressed a press conference at
Ministry of Climate Change highlighting achievements of Ministry of Climate Change and launched a report on
Climate Change Risks and Food Security Analysis in collaboration of Sustainable Development Policy Institute
(SDPI).

Khan highlighted that under its Green Pakistan Programme (GPP) 25 million trees planted during first year against a
target of 100 million in five years. He further said that Glacial Lake Outburst Flood-II (GLOF-II) project has been
approved by the Green Climate Fund worth $37 million. Foundation stone of botanical garden has been laid after
consolidating the approximately 725 acres of land.

“We also hosted seventh South Asian Conference on Sanitation in April 2018. SACOSAN is a government-led
conference held every second year on a rotational basis in eight South Asian countries,” he said adding that they
have also installed mobile upgraded air quality monitoring stations for monitoring all the major parameters of air
quality in Islamabad as well as any part of the country.

He also told the media that Pakistan Climate Change Bill has been passed to prepare and supervise implementation
of adaptation and mitigation projects in various sectors.  This law provides for the constitution of a policy making
Pakistan Climate Change Council at the apex, chaired by the prime minister, and the establishment of Pakistan
Climate Change. Framework for Implementation (2014-2030) – National Climate Change Policy has been
formulated.

The objective of National Climate Change Policy is to ensure that climate change is mainstreamed in the
economically and socially vulnerable sectors of the economy and to steer Pakistan towards climate resilient
development. The framework for implementation outlines the vulnerabilities of various sectors to climate
established migratory birds and the Houbara Bustard Endowment Fund.
Capitalisation of the endowment is Rs250 million. It shall provide funding for developing and implementing
programmes for conservation of a valuable migratory bird. Paris Agreement and Doha Amendment to Kyoto
Protocol of UNFCCC have been ratified. Paris Agreement aims to hold the increase in the global average
temperature to well below two degree centigrade above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the
temperature increase to 1.5 degree centigrade.

Doha Amendment refers to the changes made to the Kyoto Protocol in 2012, after the First Commitment Period of
the Kyoto Protocol concluded. He further highlighted Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) have been
submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)’ Secretariat in 2016.
Pakistan-NDCs show mitigation potential of 20% in greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions at a cost of $40 billion. It
also identifies adaptation cost of $7-14 billion per annum.

National Forest Policy has been approved by the Council of Common Interests. The policy aims at expansion,
protection and sustainable use of national forests, protected areas, natural habitats and watersheds for restoring
ecological functions, improving livelihoods and human health in line with the national priorities and international
agreements.

“We also launched a study Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of Islamabad to make the federal capital a
climate resilient city,” Khan said.

He said the ministry also held a consultation on marine protected areas and declared Astola Island the first marine
protected area in Pakistan. It aims at conservation and preservation of marine biodiversity and ecosystem.

The total area of Astola Island, Marine Protected Area is 401 sq km. He also talked about Initiative to formulate the
National Wildlife Policy organising of door to door planting awareness campaign “Ghar GharAik Shajar” or tree in
every house in Islamabad, holding of the Sustainable Development Expo and preparation of research report on
heatwave formulated by the Ministry of Climate Change in 2015.

Parliamentary Secretary for Climate Change Romina Khursheed Alam in introductory remarks said that a secretariat
for Sustainable Development Goals has been created in Parliament.

“We have made remarkable achievements in climate change issues.” SDPI Chief Executive Abid Sulehri briefly
highlighted facts and findings of the report. It highlighted the challenges posed by global climate change to the
availability, access, utilisation and stability of the food system in Pakistan.

Source: https://tribune.com.pk
Leaders Lament U.S. Withdrawal, but Say It Won’t
Stop Climate Efforts
July 1, 2017 Daily Articles Leave a comment

By: MICHAEL D. SHEAR and ALISON SMALE

WASHINGTON — World leaders vowed Friday to confront climate change in a new international coalition that no
longer includes the United States government, moving quickly to reshape global environmental alliances after
President Trump’s decision to abandon the Paris climate accord.

At the White House, Scott Pruitt, the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, declared that the
president had “nothing to be apologetic about” after announcing his decision on Thursday. He hailed Mr. Trump’s
actions to “put America’s interests first” and said that “exiting Paris does not mean disengagement.”

But in foreign capitals, and in communities across the United States that vowed to continue their efforts to combat
the effects of climate change, that is exactly what Mr. Trump’s withdrawal seemed to mean. International officials
set in motion plans to leave the American government behind while they look for ways to stave off the direst
consequences of the warming of the planet.

In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel said Mr. Trump’s actions “will not deter all of us who feel obliged to
protect this earth.” Koichi Yamamoto, the Japanese environment minister, told reporters that Mr. Trump had “turned
his back on the wisdom of human beings.” Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, said the fight
against climate change “will continue with or without the United States.”

Turning that message quickly into action, European Union leaders on Friday concluded a two-day summit meeting
in Brussels with Prime Minister Li Keqiang of China — a not-so-veiled diplomatic threat to Mr. Trump that Europe
will find a partner to fight climate change, one way or another.

“Today we are stepping up our cooperation on climate change with China, which means that today China and
Europe have demonstrated solidarity with future generations and responsibility for the whole planet,” Mr. Tusk said,
calling Mr. Trump’s actions on Thursday “a big mistake.”

Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, indicated that her country was eager to
jump into the void left by Mr. Trump’s departure from the Paris accord. During a briefing in Beijing, Ms. Hua
expressed support for the Paris Agreement and the need for global partnerships.

“China is willing to enhance cooperation with all sides to together advance the follow-up negotiations on details of
implementing the Paris Agreement and also advance its effective implementation,” she said.

In the United States, a group of mayors, governors, academics and business leaders began an effort to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions without the involvement of the federal government, and it is negotiating with the United
Nations to submit a plan for reducing those emissions on its own.

Before Mr. Trump’s action this week, it would have made little sense for individual cities, states or businesses to try
to negotiate climate change standards on their own. But less than 24 hours after the president’s Rose Garden
ceremony, leaders of the global effort to confront climate change welcomed that approach.

Miguel Arias Cañete, the European Union’s commissioner for climate action and energy, told reporters in Brussels
that the European Union would continue carrying out the Paris Agreement with the assistance of a variety of
American individuals, companies and authorities.

“We will establish a dialogue within the United States with all the players that in the United States support
ambitious climate change policies,” he said.

Mr. Trump’s rebuke of the agreement, signed by 195 nations in 2015, deepened a trans-Atlantic rift laid bare during
a recent NATO summit meeting in Brussels and a Group of 7 meeting in Italy, when the president lectured other
leaders on trade, climate and military spending. On Thursday, the leaders of France, Germany and Italy issued a
joint statement rejecting Mr. Trump’s assertion that he would renegotiate the climate accord.

And officials around the world said they would press for the climate agreement to be respected regardless of the
American decision. “I can assure you, France will not give up the fight,” President Emmanuel Macron said.
American officials insisted on Friday that the United States was not abandoning efforts to fight climate change, even
as several of the president’s top aides refused to say whether Mr. Trump believed the idea of human-caused global
warming was a hoax, as he has asserted in the past.

Sean Spicer, the White House press secretary, said the president would gauge the possibility of working with other
world leaders and with Congress on ways to deal with climate change that safeguard the American economy.

“He’ll obviously continue to talk to world leaders,” Mr. Spicer said. “But that’s a process that has to evolve.”

Several administration officials stressed that the federal government would continue to try to reduce pollution,
though Mr. Trump and Mr. Pruitt, the E.P.A. administrator, have made it a top priority to roll back many of
President Barack Obama’s aggressive emission-reduction efforts.

“I don’t think we’re going to change our ongoing efforts to reduce those emissions in the future either, so hopefully
people can keep it in perspective,” Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson said.

Vice President Mike Pence asserted that the United States had demonstrated what he called “real progress” in
reducing carbon emissions, and he accused liberal groups and Democratic lawmakers of trying to turn concern about
the environment into a political cause.

“It’s long been a goal of the liberal left in this country to advance a climate change agenda,” Mr. Pence said.

But outside the United States, Mr. Trump’s counterparts expressed deepening doubt about whether the world could
depend on the United States government to help lead the way toward reduced pollution levels.

Ms. Merkel spoke with Mr. Trump by telephone about the decision on Thursday, then gave a brief statement on
Friday in Berlin that was broadcast live by German television stations.

In tones similar to those of Mr. Macron, who on Thursday invited American scientists to continue their
environmental work in his country, Ms. Merkel said, “We will gather all our strength — in Germany, in Europe and
in the world — to meet the great challenges of humanity, like climate change, and to successfully master these
challenges.”

With sweeping language the chancellor has rarely used in the past, she added, “For all for whom the future of this
planet is important, I say: Let us continue along this path together, so that we are successful for our Mother Earth.”

Ms. Merkel, invoking her background as a scientist and a veteran of more than 20 years of international efforts to
protect the planet, said it was especially important to help developing nations meet the challenges of global
warming.
“What we began over 20 years ago and continued in Paris one and a half years ago with a historic quantum leap will
lead to success,” Ms. Merkel said.

She embraced the actions of companies and American states determined to carry out plans to safeguard the
environment.

“I am so moved and enthused that so many states and enterprises in the United States of America want to travel this
path with us,” she said. “We will travel it together.”

Source: https://www.nytimes.com