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MAKERERE UNIVERSITY

COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING DESIGN ART AND TECHNOLOGY

SCHOOL OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT

DEPARTMENT OF GEOMATICS AND LAND MANAGEMENT

BSc. LAND SURVEYING AND GEOMATICS

A final year project submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for

the award of a Bachelor of Science Degree in Land Surveying and
Geomatics
 LIST OF ACRONYMS

GIS Geographic Information System

AADT Annual Average Daily Traffic

HRL Hazardous Road Locations

WLC Weighted Linear Combination

MCE Multi criteria Evaluation

AHP Analytical Hierarchical Process

CR Consistency Ratio

MCE Multiple Criteria Evaluation

KCCA Kampala Capital City Authority

MUK Makerere University Kampala

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Table of Contents

Declaration .........................................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.

Dedication ..........................................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Acknowledgement .............................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Abstract ..............................................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
LIST OF ACRONYMS ....................................................................................................... i
LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................. v
LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... vi
CHAPTER ONE ................................................................................................................. 1
1.0 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1
1.1 Background ................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Statement of Problem .................................................................................................... 2
1.3 Objectives ..................................................................................................................... 2
1.3.1 Aim ......................................................................................................................... 2
1.3.2 Specific objectives.................................................................................................. 2
1.4 Scope and limitations of the study ................................................................................ 3
1.5 Study Area .................................................................................................................... 3
1.6 Resources and Constraints ............................................................................................ 4
1.6.1 Resources ............................................................................................................... 4
1.6.2 Constraints.............................................................................................................. 4
1.7 Organization of the Report............................................................................................ 5
CHAPTER TWO ................................................................................................................ 7
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................. 7
2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 7
2.2 Types of accidents......................................................................................................... 7
2.3 Road geometric factors influencing occurrence of accidents ....................................... 8
2.4 Effects of road accidents ............................................................................................. 12
2.5 Dealing with road accidents ........................................................................................ 12
2.6 Application of GIS in determining Hazardous locations ............................................ 13

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 2.6.1 Multi criteria decision making ............................................................................. 14
2.6.2 Weighted Linear Combination ............................................................................. 15
2.6.3 Analytical Hierarchy Process ............................................................................... 16
2.7 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 17
CHAPTER THREE .......................................................................................................... 18
3.0 METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................... 18
3.1 Introductory remarks ................................................................................................... 18
3.2 Identification of parameters ........................................................................................ 19
3.3 Data collection ............................................................................................................ 19
3.4 Data organization ........................................................................................................ 20
3.5 Spatial data analysis and hazard road location model development ........................... 20
3.6 Data manipulation ....................................................................................................... 20
3.6.1 Reclassification .................................................................................................... 20
3.6.2 Slope ..................................................................................................................... 21
3.6.3 Traffic volume ...................................................................................................... 21
3.6.4 Roadside hazards .................................................................................................. 21
3.6.5 Traffic speed ......................................................................................................... 22
3.6.6 Road width ........................................................................................................... 22
3.7 Determining the relative weights of the parameters ................................................... 22
3.8 Weighted Linear Combination .................................................................................... 24
3.9 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 25
CHAPTER FOUR ............................................................................................................. 26
4.0 RESULTS AND ANALYSIS ..................................................................................... 26
4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 26
4.2 Relative contribution of the parameters ...................................................................... 26
4.3 Development of hazard road location model .............................................................. 26
4.3.1 Slope ..................................................................................................................... 26
4.3.2 Traffic volume ...................................................................................................... 27
4.3.3 Roadside hazards .................................................................................................. 28
4.3.4 Traffic speed ......................................................................................................... 29
4.3.5 Road width ........................................................................................................... 30

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 4.3.7 Final Hazard Road Location map......................................................................... 31
4.4 Evaluation of results from the developed model. ....................................................... 34
4.5 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 35
CHAPTER FIVE .............................................................................................................. 36
5.0 RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION ....................................................... 36
5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 36
5.2 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 36
5.3 Recommendations for future research ........................................................................ 36
References ......................................................................................................................... 38
Appendix A ....................................................................................................................... 41
Appendix B ....................................................................................................................... 44

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 LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: criteria and ordinal values for the parameters..................................................... 22

Table 2: Pair-wise comparison of parameters used in this study ...................................... 23
Table 3: Normalized pair wise comparison matrix ........................................................... 23
Table 4: Generation of parameter weights ........................................................................ 24

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 LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Maps showing context of study area ................................................................... 4
Figure 2: Types of road accidents according to severity .................................................... 7
Figure 3: Conceptual flow of the methodology ................................................................ 18
Figure 5: Raster map of reclassified traffic volumes ........................................................ 28
Figure 10: Hazard road location model ............................................................................ 33

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 CHAPTER ONE

1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

Accidents can certainly happen anywhere and at any time along the road network.
However in geographic space certain areas are more prone to accidents than other areas
(Yamada & Thill, 2004). A busy street is more prone to accidents than a less busy street.
These accident concentrations in geographic space are often termed as hazardous road
locations. A hazardous location is one that presents a high potential for risk that may
result in injury, damage or death.

The high economic cost of road accidents around the world has created interest in the
field of creating safer routes (Dawson, 2010). Safe routes are determined through road
assessment programs in which all the road related risky areas are identified and
alternative counter measures specified. Road hazard analysis and mapping can provide
useful information for catastrophic loss reduction, eliminate need for black spots
development and assist in the development of guidelines for sustainable infrastructural
development.

In order to reduce the rate of traffic accidents, locations which have many traffic
accidents in a short period of about a month have to be identified (Karlaftis and Golias
(2011)). But the process of identifying hazard road locations based on past occurrence
means a situation of having to wait for accidents to occur before any corrective measure
can be taken. This situation makes routes un-safe for users. The better solution is to make
streets as safe as possible for both motorists and non-motorists by predicting the
hazardous road locations which can lead to their removal prior to accident occurrence.
This approach would result in safe routes for transport. Prediction of road accidents prior
to their occurrence can best be done if the influential factors leading to their occurrence
are known and therefore modeled according to their influence in causing accidents.

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The factors influencing accident occurrence can be grouped into road geometric
characteristics (lane widths, speed limit, radius of curvature, average traffic volume,
slope or road grade, road surface conditions, existence of road side hazards), human
factors (age of motorists and pedestrians, driver reaction time to reckless child on the
road e.t.c) and weather conditions(Garber and Ehrhart, 2000). Of the above categories,
weather conditions and human factors present a problem in trying to model their effects.
For example, it would be difficult to model predictions for drunken driving, overloading
and age limit in spatial context. This project therefore employs the use of road geometric
parameters in a Geographic Information System to model hazardous road locations on an
urban road.

1.2 Statement of Problem

In Uganda, there is a lack of a geographically-oriented approach to the identification of

hazardous road locations. The traffic police use manual methods of counting incidents at
a given location from the traffic accident records books to identify hazardous road
locations. The challenge is that these hazardous road locations are identified after
constant accident occurrence rather than prior.

This project is thus aimed at predicting hazardous road locations prior to accident
occurrence.

1.3 Objectives

1.3.1 Aim

The aim of this project is to develop a hazard road location model using traffic volume,
speed, slope, road width and roadside hazard rating parameters.

1.3.2 Specific objectives

i. To assess the relative contribution of the various parameters influencing the

occurrence of road accidents
ii. To develop a hazard road location determination model
iii. To evaluate the hazard road location model

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1.4 Scope and limitations of the study

The study was limited to Portbell road which was selected because it has many accidents
and has known hazardous locations which could be used in the study. In determining the
hazardous road locations, the study was limited to the following parameters: average
daily traffic volume, operating speeds, roadside hazard rating, slope and road width.
Average daily traffic count and road widths data was collected from Kampala Capital
City Authority, data for the average motorist operating speeds of the road was provided
by Uganda Police Traffic department Jinja road station. In deriving the influence of the
parameters towards accident occurrence, a general consideration was made for all road
users including motorists and non-motorists.

1.5 Study Area

Portbell road found in Nakawa division was selected for the study and it stretches a
length of roughly 11 km. It experiences a number of accidents due to rapid developments
in Nakawa region such as industries e.g. Uganda breweries, pharmaceuticals, and also the
expansion of new educational institutions, tourist accommodation, slums in Kitintale and
private apartments. Figure 1 shows the entire context of the study area.

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Figure 1: Maps showing context of study area (Sources: Google earth
imagery; KCCA 2014)

1.6 Resources and Constraints

1.6.1 Resources

The items below were used in compiling this research:

 Literature from text books, police files, reports and the internet.
 Computer hardware and software i.e. ArcGIS 10.1
 Google Earth images of Port bell road.
 GPS location data for hazardous road locations.
1.6.2 Constraints

The following constraints were met in the process of compiling this research:

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  Absence of a complete roads inventory meant that data on traffic volume, road
conditions and speeds was to be collected by other means which was time
consuming
 The absence of comprehensive literature in the use of GIS to do pre- accident
analysis made the literature and development of analysis procedures hard.
1.7 Organization of the Report

This section highlights the contents of the five chapters of the report.

Chapter one: Introduction

This chapter gives the research background; it highlights the problem statement,
objectives of the research, study area and scope of the study. The resources and
constraints section as well as the organization of the report are found in this chapter.

Chapter two: Literature review

This chapter contains literature obtained from previous research projects and journals. It
discusses the types of accidents, previous works done in determining the influence of
road geometric parameters on accident rate. The factors selected in the study that
influence accident occurrence and ways of dealing with accidents are also discussed. It
goes further to analyze the GIS techniques that can be used in hazard location prediction.

Chapter three: Methodology

The research methodology followed is presented, including the data collection process,
and spatial modeling processes in ArcGIS environment. It also presents the different
ArcGIS tools selected for the study and data manipulation to establish the relative
influence of the identified parameters and the model development.

Chapter four: Results and analysis

This chapter includes a detailed description and analysis of the results from the
methodology. This includes hazard road locations identified by each of the five
influecial factors selected for the study. The developed model is presented and its

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predicted hazardous locations are compared with those picked from the traffic
department. The results are discussed and conclusions are made on the findings.

Chapter five: Conclusions and Recommendations

This chapter concludes the study. It presents the summary of the research project,
conclusions for the research objectives and recommendations for future research.

References

This section contains the literature cited in the course of the report.

Appendix

The tables containing results are included in this section. The appendix section is
numbered A, and B.

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 CHAPTER TWO

2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction

Road safety modelling has attracted considerable research interest especially in Europe in
the past four decades because of its wide variety of applications and important practical
implications (Karlaftis and Golias, 2001). Public agencies, such as State Departments of
Transportation, may be interested in identifying accident-prone areas to promote safety
treatments, transportation engineers may be interested in identifying those factors such
as traffic and geometric that influence accident frequency and severity to improve
roadway design and provide a safer driving environment. The very high cost of road
accidents paid by societies around the world makes road safety improvement an
important objective of transportation engineering (Ramos et al., 2008). Highway safety
specialists can influence traffic safety either through means such as road rules, law
enforcement, and education, or by applying local traffic control and geometry
improvements. In summary, an understanding of accidents and the influence of traffic
and road geometric parameters towards their occurrence is necessary to formulate
appropriate countermeasures to promote safe roads.

2.2 Types of accidents

Road accidents can be divided into several groups according to their consequences, as
shown in Figure 2. According to the Uganda 2013 Annual Crime and Road Safety report,
mostly injury related accidents are reported to police.

Fatal

Property damage accidents

Road accidents Serious

Injury accidents
Minor

Figure 2: Types of road accidents according to severity (Moreira, 2012)

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2.3 Road geometric factors influencing occurrence of accidents

Much literature exists that addresses the problem of accident rate estimation, and the
identification of the various factors affecting this rate. In all the literature, the authors use
a Post-accident approach and statistical analysis to find correlations between road
geometry parameters and accident rate.

Joshua and Garber (1990) used multiple linear and Poisson regression to estimate truck
accident rates using traffic and geometric independent variables. Jones and Whitfield
(1991) used Poisson regression with data from Seattle to identify the daily characteristics
(traffic, weather, etc.) that may influence the number of traffic accidents. Miaou et al.
(1992) used Poisson regression on traffic data from 8779 miles of roadway from the
Highway Safety Information System to establish quantitative relationships between truck
accident rates and highway geometric characteristics. Their results indicate that surrogate
measures for mean absolute curvature (for horizontal alignment) and mean absolute grade
(for vertical alignment) are the most important variables for accident rate estimation.

In a study of approximately seven thousand miles of roadway logs in Utah,

Mohamedshah et al. (1993) used linear regression to predict truck accident involvement
rate per mile per year, based on average annual daily traffic (AADT) and truck AADT
per lane, shoulder width, horizontal curvature, and vertical gradient. The results suggest
that truck involvement rate increases with AADT and truck AADT, degree of curvature
and gradient. Hadi et al. (1993), using data from the Florida Department of
Transportation's Roadway Characteristics inventory system, estimated negative binomial
regression for accident rates on various types of rural and urban highways with different
traffic levels. Their results suggest that higher AADT levels and the presence of
intersections are associated with higher crash frequency, while wider lanes and shoulders
are effective in reducing crash rates.

Karlaftis and Tarko (1998), basing on a county accident data set from Indiana, estimated
macroscopic accident models using data collected from the States of Minnesota and
Washington on rural two-lane highways. They estimated accident models for segments
and three-legged and four-legged intersections stops controlled on the minor legs.

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Independent variables for their models included traffic, horizontal and vertical
alignments, lane and shoulder widths, roadside hazard rating, channelization, and number
of driveways. Their results showed that segment accidents depend significantly on most
of the roadway variables collected, while intersection accidents depend primarily on
traffic.

Karlaftis and Golias (2011) used the hierarchical tree binary regression to: assess the
effect of various rural road geometric characteristics on accident rates and estimate
predicted accident rates for a given rural road section. Their study provided a straight
forward and quantitative assessment of the influence of various rural road geometric
characteristics on accident rates. They used accident data from Indiana State Police
Accident Information records and Indiana Department of Transportation's Road
Inventory database. In their study, average daily traffic was found to have an influence of
35%, access control had 25%, friction was 19%, lane width at 0.09%, serviceability index
contributed 0.07% and Left turn contributed 0.06%.

This brief review of some of the existing literature suggests that a variety of traffic and
design elements affect accident rates. These include parameters such as AADT, cross-
section design, horizontal and vertical alignment, roadside features, access control,
pavement conditions, speed limit, lane width, and median width.

A brief explanation of the parameters chosen for the study and their correlation to
accident occurrence is presented below:

i. Slope
This is the degree of inclination of the earth’s surface. This is also known as grade of the
alignment. There is a general trend of accidents to increase with increase in slope
(Bocian, 2012; Yuanlin and Gordon, 1995). Research has shown that accident rates
increase on down slopes than on up slopes (Thomson and Othman, n.d).

In general, the crash rate tends to gradually grow linearly with increasing grades, but
grows exponentially with decreasing grades (Garber and Ehrhart, 2000). These results
have been attributed to the operational differences between heavy vehicles and cars on
high grades. However, one contradictory study by Raff et al. has found that the crash rate

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is unrelated to the grade for tangents on freeways, multilane divided and undivided
highways, and two-lane highways.

ii. Travel speed

There is a positive correlation between travel speed and accident occurrence. Accident
ratio and injury severity increase with increasing speed limit. A study by Thomson and
Othman showed that for all road types accident rate increases as speed limit increases
from 70 to 110 km/h. the study showed further that the injury severity increases with
increasing speed limit for motorway and four-lane road accidents.

In concurrence with Thomson and Othman, a study in France was performed by Lassarre
(1996) in which models were developed for predicting the severity of crashes based on
traffic volume, speed, standard deviation of speed, and the wearing of seat belts. In this
study, the models indicate that only a small influence upon safety is brought about by
changes in average speeds. Inferences from the data indicate that a greater evenness of
speeds increases the safety level. However this relationship does not hold at intersections
and junctions where the speeds might be low but due to high traffic volume crashes can
happen.

iii. Carriage way width

A carriageway of 5,8m has the lowest accident rato, with a distinct tendency for AR to
decrease with lane widths greater than 5.8m (Thomson and Othman, n.d). Carriageway
widths up to 5.8 m have the lowest accident rate; they usually are one-lane roads. There is
distinct tendency for accident rate to decrease with increasing lane width greater than 5.8
m. Road categories with, 5.8 < W ≤ 7.5 m, had the highest accident rate. This category
represents mostly two-lane roads without shoulder or with a narrow.

The road width for most two way lanes in Uganda range from 8 to 10 m. There exists
poor pavement widths ≤1m and in some road segments both the road widths and
pavements have been corroded.

iv. Average daily traffic

The variation of the crash rate as it relates to traffic volumes has been examined in
numerous studies. The conventional wisdom among the general population is that crash

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rates should increase with increasing volumes. Previous research on the relationship
between crash rates and hourly traffic volume has indicated a “U”-shaped function
encompassing broad ranges of traffic volumes (Garber and Ehrhart, 2000). This indicates
that during low volume periods, such as those that occur during the early morning and
late day hours, higher crash rates are observed than when the volumes of the road are
greater. A study conducted by Brodsky and Hakkert (1983) found contradictory results
in the study of crash rates and the volume of traffic. Regression analyses on data obtained
from primary and secondary highways show a positive relationship between injury crash
rates and traffic volumes, while the relationship is invariant on interstates. These
associations, however, were not very strong. Fatal crashes have a negative correlation
with volume, which can be attributed to the relationship between traffic volume and
speed and speed variability. The study also found that a modest increase in the density
over time has no significant effect on the average total crash rates.

For this study, the general perception of increase in traffic volume causes increase in
crashes will be adopted. The combination of low traffic count and low speed limits tends
to reduce fatality risk and hence the need for countermeasures.

v. Road side hazards

Road side hazards include car parking <3m to the road, pot holes in the middle of the
road, manholes on the side of the road, trees , rock protrusions, road side markets and
poorly managed pavements.

A number of accidents can occur as a result cars parked along a street for example serious
injuries can occur when a bicyclist strikes a door when a motorist exits a parked vehicle.
In communities with bicycling corridors on streets with parked vehicles, this crash type
can occur with reasonable frequency (Wilke, n.d). Additionally some accidents occur as
the drivers exit parking lots close to the road.
Generally, the more parked cars there are on a street, the more dangerous and costly a
street segment is.
A study carried out by Karlaftis and Golias (2011) to determine the relative influence of
geometric parameters on accident rate showed average daily traffic and travel speed carry
higher percentage in accident occurrence followed by roadside hazard rating, road

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pavement condition and slope respectively. Garber and Ehrhart (2000) also concurred
with their results in the study on the effect of traffic flow, speed and road geometrical
considerations on rural roadway accident rates.

2.4 Effects of road accidents

In addition to injury, property damage and death, road accidents present a significant
constraint to the economic development of Uganda with their economic cost estimated to
be at 100.25 of the GDP (Dawson, 2010). Most vulnerable areas for the entire Ugandan
road network have generally been identified on a general scale and some include: Lugogo
by pass, Kalema road junction, spear motors junction, kinawataka road e.t.c (Baligema,
2013). Death, damage, injury and loss are regularly incurred because; historically there
has been inadequate consideration of potential problems in slope, traffic volumes and
roadside hazards.

2.5 Dealing with road accidents

The issue of road accidents can be avoided if the problem can be recognized at the
planning stage and effective safe route safety measures drafted in the plan and use of
roads. Damage and loss of life from road accidents can be mitigated by some of the
following remedial measures:

i. Identification and avoidance of steep slopes

ii. Control of grading and embankments
iii. A combination of shoulder widening, central hatching of at least 1m width,
improved delineation of centerlines and addressing roadside hazards with barriers
or hazard removal. Taken together these measures provide a low cost way of
reducing head-on conflicts and run offs for vehicles and provide more space for
vulnerable road users. Good delineation encourages better lane discipline and 1m
central hatching on single carriageway two lane roads provides improved
visibility for overtaking without creating a third lane. On inter- urban roads,
sealing shoulders to a width of at least 1.5m and delineating the lane boundaries
provides sufficient space for vulnerable road users and runoff recovery. However

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 in urban areas shoulders become used as part of the roadway and it is preferable
to have footpaths and bollard protection for vulnerable road users.
iv. Provision of pedestrian crossing facilities and improving the quality of existing
crossings. Pedestrian crossings range from grade - separated crossings with
pedestrian management on fast dual carriageways, through signalized crossings
with traffic calming on lower volume roads, to central refuges on single
carriageway roads. In combination with the installation of pedestrian crossings,
pedestrian management should be used to modify pedestrian behavior.
v. Road surface upgrades, modification of intersections, addition of signalization
and conversion of some intersections to roundabouts. Roundabouts in Uganda
have a tendency to become gridlocked when congested due to poor driver
behavior, so it is important that roundabouts are designed to allow free traffic
flow. Also delineating bicycle lanes on busy streets.
vi. Avoid frequent speed limit changes along the curvy roadway segments.
vii. Warn drivers before they enter a curved or steep roadway segment since degree of
curvature and grade have increasing effects on both average accident ratio (AAR).
viii. Warning signs or other pavement-based warning techniques, such as pavement
markers and rumble strips, can help reduce the risk.
ix. Widen the surface width and add an additional passing lane in high accidentrate
roadway segments.
x. Remove roadside curbs and walls.
xi. Minimize the change in slope between the inbound and outbound of an
intersection.
Sources: Dawson, 2010; Wang et al. 2008

2.6 Application of GIS in determining Hazardous locations

Application of GIS starts with the ability to identify the factors that are related to
accidents, estimate the relative contribution of factors such as: grade, traffic volumes,
travel speed, radius of curvature, lane widths and super elevation and to predict the
hazard in the future based on such a relationship. Using GIS and on-the-ground studies, it
is possible to generate maps of high risk areas (Drobne and Lisec, 2009). Such maps

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should show the locations of previous events as well as clearly indicate the probable
locations of future events. In general, to predict road accidents, one must assume that
their occurrence is determined by certain factors, and that they will continue happening at
that location if mitigative safety measures are not implemented. Therefore, it is necessary
to establish a relationship between the accidents and their causal factors to promote safe
routes and prevent future occurrence at certain locations (Ramos et al., 2008).

2.6.1 Multi criteria decision making

Being able to conduct geographically based risk assessment requires being in position to
spatially distribute the causal factors of the phenomenon in question. Multi criteria
decision making is a set of procedures for analysing complex decision problems. These
procedures include dividing the decision into smaller more understandable parts;
analysing each part and integrating the parts in a logical manner to produce a meaningful
solution (Malczewski, 1999).

Multi criteria decision making is not a tool to provide the right solution in a decision
problem, since no such solution exists. The solution provided might be considered best
only for the stakeholders who provided their values in the form of weighting factors
while other stakeholders’ values may indicate an alternative solution. Instead it is an aid
to decision making that helps stakeholders organise available information, think on the
consequences, explore their own wishes and tolerances and minimise the possibility for
post-decision disappointment (Belton and Stewart, 2002).

All multi criteria decision making approaches make the options and their contribution to
the different criteria explicit, and all require the exercise of judgement. They differ
however on how they combine the data. Formal Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE)
techniques usually provide an explicit relative weighting system for the different criteria.
The main role of the techniques is to deal with the difficulties that human decision
makers have been shown to have in handling large amounts of complex information in a
consistent way. MCE techniques can be used to identify a single most preferred option to
rank options, to short list a limited number of options for subsequent detailed appraisal,
or simply to distinguish acceptable from unacceptable possibilities. The following

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sections outline some of the best known approaches (Drobne and Lisec, 2009; Clemen,
1996).

From literature several methods have been proposed for hazardous location mapping.
These include qualitative and quantitative methods.

Qualitative methods require prior knowledge of past accident occurrence in order to

identify the areas where their rate is high and to postulate the likelihood of their future
increase. While this traditional technique yields effective hazard zonation map, it is time
consuming, expensive and extremely labour intensive (Hagget, and Chorley, 1967). For
this reason, these techniques are not widely used.

On the other hand quantitative techniques require adopting of a deterministic or statistical

model to map hazard risks. A deterministic approach is based on prior knowledge of the
physical factors that influence the occurrence of an event. These factors are ranked and
weighted basing on their importance in triggering off that particular event (Belton and
Stewart, 2002).

Each technique and model has a unique set of advantages and disadvantages. For this
reason, there is no consensus among researchers on the best or most appropriate model to
be used in order to identify and map risk prone areas (lord, 2010). Recently, much
interest in multi criteria evaluation (MCE) has mainly dwelt around two approaches:
Weighted Linear Combination and the Analytical Hierarchical Process.

2.6.2 Weighted Linear Combination

Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) also known as simple additive weighting or

scoring method is a simple and most often used multi attribute decision technique. The
ranking of the alternatives is based on the weighted sum of the effect score. This method
is especially suitable for problems with scores measured on a quantitative scale. The user
has to indicate the relative importance (weight) of each factor (Drobne and Lisec, 2009).

Triantaphyllou and Mann (1989) stated that the first step is that all effect scores are
standardized. An appraisal score is then calculated for each alternative by first
multiplying these each effect’s score by its appropriate weight, followed by summing up

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the weighted scores of all effects. The final ranking of the alternatives is assessed based
on the resulting appraisal scores for each alternative. The final scores and ranking are
dependent on the standardization method being applied. By saving the multi criteria
evaluation results, they can be compared with other different calculations. In this way the
influence of changes in weights, weight methods and standardization procedures can be
analyzed.

The WLC was analysed using the following equation:

S=∑WiXi

Where S= hazard road location

Wi= weight of the factor

Xi= criterion score

2.6.3 Analytical Hierarchy Process

The AHP developed by Saaty (2008) in 1980 is a technique for analyzing and supporting
decisions in which multiple and competing objectives are involved and multiple
alternatives are available. The method is based on three principles: decomposition,
comparative judgment and synthesis of priorities.

AHP is a well-known technique that breaks down a decision making problem into several
levels in such a way that they form a hierarchy with unconditional hierarchical
relationships between levels. The top level of the hierarchy is the main goal of the
decision problem. The lower levels are criteria and sub criteria that contribute to the goal.
The bottom level is formed by the alternatives to evaluate in terms of the criteria. AHP
uses pair wise comparison to allocate weights to the elements of each level. Pair wise
comparison generally refers to a process of comparing entities in pairs to judge which of
each entity is preferred or has a greater amount of some quantitative property. This
technique is used as a decision making tool in many applications to rank the relative
importance of multiple variables (Afshari et al., 2010). During the pair wise comparison,
the relative importance of the elements is measured with Saaty’s 1-9 scale. This scale is

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then normalised to obtain values going between 0 and 1, which correspond to the weights
needed for the application of the approach. Using an overlay function, the elements can
then be combined to formulate the top goal of the complex decision (Eastman et al.,
1995). AHP also calculates a consistency ratio (CR) to verify the coherence of the
judgments, which must be about 0.10 or less to be acceptable. The total sum of the
weights must also equate to 100%.

AHP is conceptually easy to use and provides a scientific means of assigning weights.
Therefore it is for this reason that the AHP technique was chosen for the study over the
Weighted Linear combination. However its strict hierarchical structure cannot address the
complexities of many real world problems (Afshari et al., 2010).

2.7 Conclusion

The literature review has identified several factors influencing occurrence of traffic
hazards. In this study, speed, traffic volume, road width, roadside hazard rating and slope
are the factors used to identify hazardous road locations because they can easily be
modeled in a GIS environment. Speed, traffic flow, grade and roadside hazards have a
positive correlation with crash rates while lane width records both a direct and inverse
correlation with crash rates. The literature review has also identified ways through which
they can be incorporated into GIS environment for analysis. The researcher therefore
formulated an appropriate methodology from previous work done in the field of accident
prevention to develop an appropriate hazard road location model.

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 CHAPTER THREE

3.0 METHODOLOGY

3.1 Introductory remarks

This chapter highlights the methodology used to meet the objectives of the research. The
methodology was carried out as shown in figure 3. It indicates the systematic steps
followed in the methodology adopted for the hazard road location model development
from data collection stage up to evaluation of model results.

The methodology is summarized in figure 3:

Data Collection

Slope

Traffic volume

Travel speed

Road side hazards GIS HRL prediction modeling

Road width

Coordinates of police HRL

Map showing hazardous road locations

Hazard road location prediction model

Evaluate results: HRLs produced by model

and HRLs from police

Figure 3: Conceptual flow of the methodology

18
3.2 Identification of parameters

From the literature review five parameters were used in the model development. These
parameters were chosen because most of the previous research identified them to trigger
off accidents as noted in the literature review and also the period of data collection in
order to complete the study within the specified time period. Listed below are the
parameters used in the research listed in order of their relative influence from literature.

i. Traffic data: Areas with more traffic are more susceptible to accidents than areas
with less traffic
ii. Travel speed: Accident risk increases with positive deviations from the operating
speed limit of the roads.
iii. Road condition and roadside hazards: The more cars parked near the road, large
potholes and man holes also increase the risk of an accident occurring.\
iv. Road width: Many accidents tend to cluster in places having narrow lanes but
high traffic volumes.
v. Slope: Slope especially down grade has a positive correlation with accident
occurrence. But slope mostly affects cyclists as noted in the literature review and
therefore carries less weight.
3.3 Data collection

Google earth images of Portbell road were obtained from Google earth imagery. Data
about the real hazard road locations was obtained from Jinja road police station. The
coordinates of these locations were obtained by handheld GPS.

A contour dataset for Uganda was obtained from the GIS laboratory from which the slope
of the study area was obtained. The traffic count data and road widths were obtained from
Kampala Capital City Authority engineering department. In this project, because there
was no clearly posted speed limit, the operating speeds were obtained from Uganda
police force traffic department at central police station. The road side hazards were
mapped from Google earth imagery and appended to the different road segments. The
collected data is attached in appendix A.

19
3.4 Data organization

After the data collection, the gathered data and information were coded and data entered
into Microsoft Excel Sheet with all the necessary attribute information. The data was then
saved as .CSV file and imported into ArcGIS.

3.5 Spatial data analysis and hazard road location model development

A spatial model is a set of spatial processes that converts input data into an output map
using a specific function such as slope or overlay. The spatial processes that were used
are explained below:

i. Clipping: This function was used to extract the study area map from the country
wide contour map.
ii. Data conversion: All features were converted to raster format because raster
datasets have a higher processing speed.
iii. Terrain process: Four terrain processes are supported in model builder i.e. slope,
aspect, hill shade and contour. In this case slope process was used; it creates a
grid theme containing slope values in either percentage or slope of degree.
iv. Weighted overlay: The weighted overlay function was used to combine the
parameter data in ArcGIS based on their relative influence. This function
provided the final hazard road location map.
v. Model builder: Is a tool integrated in ESRI’s ArcGIS software for building
geoprocessing models. It is in the model builder that the objective of developing
the hazard road locations model using the specified parameters was implemented.
3.6 Data manipulation

3.6.1 Reclassification

Scores from the various map attributes can only be compared if the measurement units
are the same. Through the standardization procedure the measurement units were made
uniform, and the scores lost their dimension along with their measurement unit.
Standardization of the attributes was performed for each of the theme maps in ESRI
Spatial Analyst reclassification tool.

20
The study road was digitized from Google earth imagery and broken down into segments.
Each segment was going from one junction/intersection to another. Four more road shape
files were created one to store the average daily traffic count, travel speed, slope, road
width and road side hazards and conditions. The data contained additional information,
including the length of the segments and the name of the street.

3.6.2 Slope

The slope map was obtained by clipping out the area covered by the Portbell road buffer
from the Digital Elevation Model of the country. Figure 4 shows the degree slope map for
the road. A slope map was created and the study area was clipped then slope information
was added to the road layer.

The shape-files containing average daily traffic count, travel speed, slope, road width and
road side hazards and conditions were buffered with an 18m buffer to ensure their
visibility and later the resulting buffers were rasterized.

3.6.3 Traffic volume

The traffic volume map was obtained by adding average daily traffic data to the
respective road segments to generate the traffic volume layer. The layer was then
rasterized and reclassified into three class ratings which included light traffic, moderate
traffic and heavy traffic. The traffic volume map is shown in figure 5.

3.6.4 Roadside hazards

A Google earth image was used to collect information for roadside car parking and
markets which was verified by doing a ground truth survey. The image was scanned for
where cars were parked and markets very close to the road and any other roadside hazard.
If cars were parked on one side of the road, a number 1 was given to that street segment.
If cars were parked on both sides a 2 was given. If a market existed close to the road a
number 3 was given. Hazards were ranked in comparison to the width of the particular
road segment. Only car parking and roadside markets were the only hazards evaluated.
The table for ranking road side hazards is shown in appendix B. Generally, the more

21
parked cars and market activity there is on a street, the more dangerous and costly a street
segment is.

The roadside hazards map was obtained by adding roadside rank data to the respective
road segments to generate the roadside hazards layer. The resulting layer was then
rasterized and three class ratings were obtained with values 1, 2 and 3. The map for
roadside hazards parameter is presented in Figure 6.

3.6.5 Traffic speed

The data for speed from the traffic department was added to the respective road segments
to generate the traffic speeds layer. The resulting layer was then rasterized and three class
ratings were obtained with values 1, 2 and 3. The map is presented in figure 7.

3.6.6 Road width

The data for width was added to the respective road segments to generate the road width
layer. Only two widths were provided in the data collection stage. This is because some
road segments were widened during upgrade of route segments by the planning authority.
The resulting layer was then rasterized and two class ratings were obtained which
included 8m and 10 m road sections.

3.7 Determining the relative weights of the parameters

To gain the specific objectives of the research, the hazardous road locations are classified
on the basis of Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE). In MCE, an attempt is made to combine
a set of criteria to achieve a single composite basis, a score function, for a decision
according to the research aim. The relative influence of the parameters was obtained by
pairwise comparison.

The parameters were ordered according to their significance by judgment from literature
and then evaluated on Saaty’s 9-point scale according to their intensity of danger. Table 1
shows the criteria and ordinal values used for the pairwise matrix. The pairwise matrix
generated is shown in table 2.

Table 1: criteria and ordinal values for the parameters

22
Intensity of Criteria
Importance
1 Two activities contribute equally to road accidents
3 A parameter is favored very strongly over another
5 A parameter is favored strongly over another
7 A parameter is favored very strongly over another
9 A parameter’s favor is of the highest possible order in judgment

Table 2: Pair-wise comparison of parameters us ed in this study

Average Travel Slope Roadside Width

Daily Traffic Speed hazards
Average 1 9/7 9/1 9/5 9/3
Daily Traffic
Travel 7/9 1 7/1 7/5 7/3
Speed
Slope 1/9 1/7 1 1/5 1/3
Road Side 5/9 5/7 5 1 5/3
hazards
Road width 3/9 3/7 3 3/5 1

After completion of the pairwise matrix, individual causal factor weights were calculated.
This was done by first converting each cell value in the table above to a percentage of the
sum by column. This is normalizing the matrix in order to maintain consistency in the
computation.

Table 3: Normalized pair wise comparison matrix

Average Travel Slope Roadside Width

Daily Traffic Speed hazards

23
Average 0.3600 0.3600 0.3600 0.3600 0.3600
Daily Traffic
Travel 0.2800 0.2800 0.2800 0.2800 0.2800
Speed
Slope 0.0400 0.0400 0.0400 0.0400 0.0400
Road Side 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000
hazards
Road width 0.1200 0.1200 0.1200 0.1200 0.1200

The weight for each causal factor, which corresponds to its percentage influence in
triggering off accidents, was then calculated as the mean value for each of the rows. The
mean is an average of the row sum and the number of criteria which was five for the
study.

Table 4: Generation of parameter weights

Row sum Weight of factor ((row sum/5*100%)

Average Daily Traffic 1.80 36
Travel Speed 1.40 28
Slope 0.20 04
Road Side hazards 1.00 20
Road width 0.60 12

3.8 Weighted Linear Combination

Having standardized the distribution of the causal factors (except the slope) according to
a continuous and uniform scale, the weighted linear combination (WLC) method was
used. This method multiplies each standardized causal factor distribution map was by its
corresponding weight to obtain weight pixel scores. The weight pixel scores are then
summed together to yield hazard road location map.

Three hazard ratings, not/ insignificantly hazardous, moderately hazardous and low
through to highly hazardous were adopted. The selection of hazard ratings is somewhat
subjective. The ratings indicate the likelihood of an accident occurring. The hazard

24
classes were first classified by equal interval and then named the hazard classes adopted
in this study are:

i. insignificantly hazardous
ii. moderately hazardous
iii. highly hazardous
3.9 Conclusion

The above processes were implemented successfully to develop the hazard road location
model and map showing various degrees of hazard road locations. The predicted
locations were compared with the known locations.

25
 CHAPTER FOUR

4.0 RESULTS AND ANALYSIS

4.1 Introduction

This chapter presents a discussion of the results obtained from the methodology in the
previous chapter. To gain the specific objectives of the research, results are discussed on
the basis of objectives and they include: Computed influence of the parameters, HRL
model development and evaluation of the model results. The final classifications adopted
are; insignificantly hazardous, moderately hazardous and highly hazardous sites.

4.2 Relative contribution of the parameters

In this study, speed, traffic volume, road width, roadside hazard rating and slope were the
factors used to identify hazardous road locations. Average daily traffic volume was found
to have an influence of 36%, travel Speed had 28%, road side hazards had 20%, road
width had 12% and slope had 04% on accident occurrence. These weights showed that:
average daily traffic is as 9 times as more influential as slope, twice as influential as
width and width is 3 times more significant than slope and speed is 7 times more
significant than slope and roadside hazards 5 times more significant than slope in
determining hazard road segments.

4.3 Development of hazard road location model

4.3.1 Slope

Figure 4 shows the degree slope map for the road. Most of the road segments shown in
green were found to be significantly flat with a few moderately inclined segments shown
in yellow and very inclined segments shown in red. The red segments with a high degree
of slope from 70-240 are the most hazardous road locations for the slope parameter input.

26
Figure 4: Slope map of Portbell road

4.3.2 Traffic volume

The traffic volume layer was rasterized and reclassified into three class ratings which
included light traffic, moderate traffic and heavy traffic. Figure 5 shows the traffic
volume map. The red areas (Luzira region) indicating light traffic are not busy and hence
are expected to be less dangerous compared to green moderate traffic and blue heavy
traffic in the busy centers and junction (Nakawa and Bugoloobi junction).

27
Figure 5: Raster map of reclassified traffic volumes

4.3.3 Roadside hazards

Three class ratings were generated from the roadside hazards layer with values 1, 2 and 3.
1 corresponds to road segments with few roadside car parks and no markets, 2
corresponds to areas with few roadside hazards and few roadside markets and 3
corresponds to locations with the most roadside car parks and markets (kitintale market,
Bugoloobi market, roadside taxi stages and building parks). Locations with value 1 are
the least hazardous, 2 moderately hazardous and 3 the most hazardous road segments for
the roadside hazards input parameter. Figure 6 shows the roadside hazards map.

28
Figure 6: Raster map of roadside hazards classified

4.3.4 Traffic speed

The resulting layer was then rasterized and three class ratings were obtained with values
1, 2 and 3. 1 relates to road segments with lowest traffic speeds, 2 relates to areas with
average traffic speeds and 3 relates to locations with the highest traffic speeds. (These
correspond to mainly straight segments). Locations with value 3 are the least hazardous,
2 moderately hazardous and 1 the most hazardous road segments for the travel speed
input parameter. Figure 7 shows the roadside hazards map.

29
Figure 7: Raster map of travel speeds

4.3.5 Road width

The data for width was added to the respective road segments to generate the road width
layer. Only two widths are notable due to upgrade of route segments by the planning
authority. The resulting layer had two classes: 8m and 10 m road sections. 8m two lane
road sections are more dangerous than 10m road sections. Figure 8 shows the road width
parameter map.

30
Figure 8: Raster map of road width layer with road width 8 and 10m

4.3.7 Final Hazard Road Location map

The final map showing the most risky areas is a weighted overlay map of all maps in
figures 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8. It shows the most risky locations. The map is shown in figure 9.
The percentage influence of each parameter was applied in a weighted linear combination
function to obtain the final hazard road location map. Equation 1 below shows the
function used. The brown areas are not as hazardous as the green moderately hazardous
areas. The blue highly hazardous locations on the map can be termed as possible accident
hot spots or locations which if untreated can result into accident clustering.

Hazard Road Location map = 0.36 (map 5) + 0.20 (map 6) + 0.28 (map 7) + 0.12 (map 8)
+ 0.04 (map 4) 1
Where;
Map 4 = slope map
Map 5 = average daily traffic volume map

Map 6 = roadside hazard rating map

31
Map 7 = speed map
Map8 = road width map

Figure 9: Map showing the hazardous road location severity index.

The results above were produced by the model shown in figure 10. The model shows all
the geo-processes such as slope, rasterization, reclassification, buffering and weighted
overlay function. The blue shapes indicate the input parameters, the green shapes indicate
the output results and the yellow shapes point to the geoprocessing tools used in the
study.

32
Figure 10: Hazard road location model

33
4.4 Evaluation of results from the developed model.

Table 5: coordinates of known Hazardous Road Locations

Point Coordinates of existing hazardous road locations (UTM)

Northing (m) Easting (m)
1 35643 458252 BUGOLOOBI MTN JUNCTION
2 36514 456788 NAKAWA T/LIGHTS
3 35489 455241 OPP. MEAT PACKERS

Table 5 shows the coordinates of known hazardous road locations by police that were

picked by handheld GPS during the data collection stage. Figure 11 is a map comparing

the predicted HRLs and those that are officially known by police where most accidents

occur. A close look at the map shows that only the Bugoloobi MTN junction coincided

with the highly hazardous blue area where as the hotspots at Nakawa and opposite meat

packers coincided with the moderately hazardous locations according to the model.

Figure 10: Evaluation of model results.

34
Of the three places known by the traffic department, the model was able to identify only
Bugoloobi MTN junction as being within the predicted hazardous road locations. The
comparison shows that one of the known three places is within the sites predicted by the
model; therefore the five factors used in the study are a good predictor of accident-prone
street segments when used in a GIS. The fact that not all hazardous road locations have
been identified indicates that other factors could be responsible for accident clustering
and the discrepancy could even be due to the weighting approach employed.

4.5 Conclusion

The model was able to identify one of the three known HRL; therefore the five factors
used in the study are a good predictor of accident-prone street segments when used in a
GIS. The degree of risk was rated according to an index of insignificantly hazardous,
moderately hazardous and highly hazardous. The results show that a GIS and a Linear
Weighted Combination together with a properly performed Multi Criteria Evaluation are
a useful tool to determine unsafe road segments.

35
 CHAPTER FIVE

5.0 RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION

5.1 Introduction

This chapter concludes the research project. Conclusions are given based on the specific
objectives for the study. It also includes a section of recommendations for future research
that can build on this work.

5.2 Conclusion

From the study, traffic volume has the greatest influence on accident occurrence at about
36% followed by speed 28%, slope at 4% and roadside hazard contribute a relative
influence 20% and width at 12%. A hazardous road location model was successfully
developed using the parameters traffic volume, speed, roadside hazard rating, road width
and slope with their relative influence. The model was able to identify only Bugoloobi
MTN junction among the three known HRL. Therefore the five factors used in the study
are a good predictor of accident-prone street segments when used in a GIS.

5.3 Recommendations for future research

The following recommendations are made after the study;

The research study was based on a single case study, so it is suggested that the study be
reproduced on other cities testing the suitability of the developed model.
Further studies should be done to analyse the accident migration effect. The accident
migration effect is a phenomenon characterized by the apparent increasing of accident
frequency at locations that are untreated but adjacent to treated locations, giving the
impression of road accidents migrate to surrounding areas (Moreira, 2011). This is
because this phenomenon of regression to the mean would distort the results of the model
developed. For example all road geometric factors of a particular road segment could be
pointing to it as a safe place but accidents can migrate from an unsafe location to it after
the treatment of the safe location.

36
In order to predict HRL based on higher accuracy, the influence of the parameters could
be generated by making an analysis of the past accident occurrences using the
hierarchical tree based regression and also adding influence of more parameters such as
surface condition, number of lanes and type of traffic control measure. The influence of
curves of accident occurrence is also recommended for future research.
The study can also be repeated by analysing single accident categories for example
cyclists, motorists and pedestrians to obtain better results since most accidents are very
specific.

37
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 Appendix A

The traffic count data for Portbell road, Source: KCCA engineering department

41
42
Table showing speed file

43
 Appendix B

Ranking of road side risks

FID Variables WIDTH (m) road_Id rank

0 1 and 4 10 Portbell rd 2 Road side Hazards and Road widths
1 3 10 Portbell rd 10 parked cars, market and fuel stations
2 0 8 Portbell rd 1 0 1 4 2,3
3 0 8 Portbell rd 1 10m 1 1 1 5
4 0 8 Portbell rd 1 width 8m 1 5 1 10
5 0 8 Portbell rd 1
6 0 8 Portbell rd 1 key
7 0 8 Portbell rd 1 width 8m 10m
12 0 8 Portbell rd 1 0= 0 parked cars
13 0 8 Portbell rd 1 1= cars parked on one
side
14 3 8 Portbell rd 1 2= cars parked on both
sides
15 4 8 Portbell rd 1 3= roadside market
16 0 8 Portbell rd 1 4= fuel station on road
side
17 0 8 Portbell rd 1

44