Weather Prediction Application Based on
ANFIS (Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference
System) Method In West Jakarta Region
Anif Hanifa Setyaningrum, Praditya Megananda Swarinata
Department of Informatics Engineering, Faculty of Science and Technology, State Islamic University of Syarif
Hidayatullah Jakarta
Abstract- Rainy season in Indonesia between October
to April with the highest rainfall peak in December. But
there is the possibility of weather’s anomaly and even
climate irregularities. Some studies also mention that the
climate’s affect the economic situation in one region.
Especially in West Jakarta. West Jakarta is one of
region for connecting activity of economy, where activity
done by using air transportation that never stop
running. It needs special handling, so that the rainfall
predicted by applying the basic rules of reasoning and
fuzzy logic. This research applies ANFIS to predict three
weather variables, namely air temperature, air humidity
and wind speed as a predictor. The data used is the
weather data from West Jakarta region in January,
February, March, July, August and September in the
year of 2012, and got from Meteorology Climatology and
Geophysics Agency Jakarta. Adaptive Neural-Fuzzy
Inference System (ANFIS) for weather prediction has a
level of accuracy 100%, because each one is able to
predict the qualitative value of the category 0 (rain) and
1 (not rain) same with expert opinion, and from total
samples 183 and 180 as training data, testing and
checking.
Keywords: weather, weather prediction, fuzzy logic,
ANFIS
I. INTRODUCTION
A. Background of Problem
Weather condition is an important thing that
needs to be studied because of the weather in a region
determines the range of human activities. For
example, climate information and its classification
much a reference to the fields of agriculture,
transportation, and tourism such as cruise, or flight.
Some studies also mention that the climate’s affect the
economic situation in one region. Especially in West
Jakarta. West Jakarta is one of region for connecting
activity of economy, where activity done by using air
transportation that never stop running. Then it need
special handling, by using weather prediction, so all of
activity that related to air transportation will going run
smoothly.
The weather is influenced by several factor, there
are temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, wind
speed, and rainfall of course. Rainfall is the amount of
water that falls to the earth's surface. The degree of
precipitation is expressed by the amount of rainfall in
a unit time. Usually the units used are mm/hour. In
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meteorology rain drop with a diameter of more than
0.5 mm in diameter and is called rain between 0.5 -
0.1 mm is called drizzle. The larger the grain size, the
greater rain fall speed. The accuracy of measuring
instruments rainfall is 1/10 mm. Readings were taken
once a day and recorded as rainfall earlier
today/yesterday [1].
Methodology of intelligent system potentially far
in pattern detection and forecasting process. ANFIS
(Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System) has the
advantage in drawing conclusions, and also gives the
ability for the system to input learning. Thus the result
of good intelligent information systems, should be
able to take advantage of the interaction for the
resolution and determination of solutions to problems
in a comprehensive manner.
B. Scope of Works
Some of limited scopes for this thesis:
1. Type of object to be studied by the author is
the rainfall in the West Jakarta region only.
2. The secondary data that author used as weather
prediction object are data from January,
February, March, July, August and September
on 2012 and as much as 183 and 180 daily
data.
3. The secondary data that author used as weather
prediction object are only data with lowland
condition.
4. The process of identifying a problem is rain or
not rain symptoms resulting from daily
observation, and will be match to the expert
opinion in the form of temperature at 7am
(Temp7), humidity at 7am (RH7) and wind
speed at 7am(FF7).
5. The application just showing prediction result
without showing database from input and
output (prediction) variable.
6. Target of this application is for ordinary staff,
not for an expert.
7. The process of making application using
MATLAB R2013A version as just a tools and
not make an algorithm, in fuzzy logic
identification with Takagi Sugeno method.
 II. LITERATURE STUDY
Fuzzy set is a group that represents a particular
A. Artificial Intelligence condition or circumstance in a fuzzy variable.
The term artificial intelligence is derived from Example:
English as "Artificial Intelligence". If interpreted each 1. Variable temperature. Divided into 5 fuzzy
word, artificial means dummy and intelligence is an sets, namely: COLD, COOL, NORMAL,
adjective that means smart . So artificial intelligence is WARM and HOT.
something artificial that has smart character.
Intelligent herein shall have the meanings possibility
cleverness or sharpness in thinking, as well as the
human brain in solving a problem.
Artificial intelligence is defined as intelligence
exhibited by an artificial entity. This type of system
generally considered as a computer. Intelligence was
created and inserted into the computer in order to do
the job like that can be done by humans . And
artificial intelligence is not just about understanding
Fig. 1. Example of Fuzzy Set
what the intelligence system, but also to reconstruct
[3].
D. Membership Function
B. Neural Network Membership function is a curve that shows the
There are three kinds of neural network applica- mapping of points of input data into membership
tions, there are [4]: values (which has the interval 0 to 1). One way that
1. Pattern Recognition can be used to obtain the membership value is the
Neural network can be used to identify patterns function approach [7]. There are several functions that
such as letters, numbers or a voice that has been can be used are:
slightly changed. This is similar to the human
brain is still able to recognize people who have 1. Linier Representation
some time never meet again (probably facial or In the linear representation, mapping inputs into
change of body shape). degrees of membership is described as a straight line.
2. Signal Processing There are 2 state of the linear fuzzy sets.
Neural network (ADALINE models) can be First, the set begins to rise in value domains that
used to press noise on the phone line. have a degree of membership of zero [0] to move to
3. Prediction the right towards the value of a domain that has a
Neural networks can also be used to predict higher degree of membership.
what will happen in the future, based on the
existing pattern of events in the past. This can be
done considering the ability of neural networks to
remember and make a generalization of what
already exists.
In addition to these areas, artificial neural
networks are also reported to resolve problems in
the areas of control, medicine, and others.

C. Fuzzy Logic Fig. 2. Up Linier Curve Representation

There are some reasons why people use fuzzy
logic according to [5]: Second, a straight line starting from the value of
1. The concept of fuzzy logic is easy to understand. the domain with the highest degree of membership
The underlying mathematical concept of fuzzy on the left side, then moving towards the domains
reasoning is very simple and easy to understand. values that have a lower degree of membership.
2. Fuzzy logic is very flexible.
3. Fuzzy logic can tolerate data that isn’t right.
4. Fuzzy logic is capable of modeling the nonlinear
functions that very complex.
5. Fuzzy logic can establish and apply the
experiences of experts directly without having to
go through the training process.
6. Fuzzy logic can work with the techniques of
conventional control. Fig. 3. Down Linier Curve Representation
7. Fuzzy logic is based on natural language.

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2. Triangle Curve Representation
Triangel curve is basically a combination of two
lines ( linear ) as shown in the picture below:
membership function is obtained based on interviews
with expert.
Temperature consist of three parameters: cold,
warm and hot. Fuzzy value of temperature based on
air temperature is as follows:

TABLE I
VALUE OF FUZZY SET TEMPERATURE
Temperature (Temp7) Value
Cold 22,1 – 25 0c
Warm 25,1 – 27 0c
Hot 27,1 – 29 0c
Fig. 4. Triangle Curve Representation
Membership function of temperature Gaussian
E. Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) type described as follows:
The resulting fuzzy system called Fuzzy Inference
System (FIS). FIS is successfully applied in various
fields, such as automatic control, data classification,
decision analysis and expert system. Flexible due to
its ability to be applied in various fields, FIS is often
called by other names such as fuzzy rule-based
system, fuzzy expert systems, fuzzy modeling, fuzzy
logic controllers and fuzzy systems. Fig. 5. Membership Function of Temperature Gaussian Type

F. Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) Humidity consist of three parameters: dry, wet
ANFIS is developed by JSR Jang in 1992. and moist. Fuzzy value of humidity are:
According to Jang, class adaptive network is
functionally equivalent to a fuzzy inference system. TABLE II
ANFIS is an architecture that functionally same VALUE OF FUZZY SET HUMIDITY
with Sugeno fuzzy rule based model. ANFIS
Humidity(RH7) Value
architecture is also similar to the neural network with Dry 41 – 60 %
radial function with less certain restrictions. It could Wet 61 – 80 %
be said that ANFIS is a method which is used in Moist 81 – 100 %
making the adjustment rule learning algorithm to a set
of data. In ANFIS is also possible to adapt the rules Membership function of humidity Gaussian type
[10]. described as follows:

III. ANALYSIS, INPUT, ARCHITECTURE AND OUTPUT

DESIGN.
A. Analysis Design
Requirement analysis is the identification of
issues that need to be used on the system parameter to
be used in accordance with expert opinion. First, Fig. 6. Membership Function of
conduct interview with expert to know the parameter Humidity Gaussian Type
or variable that identify the weather prediction.
Second, identifying weather data observation that Wind speed consist of three parameters: weak,
indicate that the observed data is the cornerstone in medium and tight. Fuzzy value of wind speed
determining the outcome (rain or not rain) in West are:
Jakarta region.
B. Input Design TABLE III
VALUE OF FUZZY SET WIND SPEED
1. Fuzzy and Membership Function Wind Speed (FF) Value
Fuzzy set is a specific condition in a fuzzy Weak 0 – 8 knots
Medium 9 – 17 knots
variable. Design data structures using fuzzy sets Tight 18 – 26 knots
which are divided into criteria and parameters.
Criteria of weather prediction, namely temperature, Membership function of wind speed
humidity and wind speed. Data are presented as fuzzy Gaussian type described as follows:
criteria and each criteria has a parameter that reflects
the membership in fuzzy set. Value of each

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Fig. 7. Membership Function of
Wind Speed Gaussian Type
In this study, the ANFIS is used as a neural
network architecture and set 3 types of Gaussian
membership functions. In ANFIS architecture
adaptively shaped membership function
according to the amount of data entered (training
data).
2. Rule Base
In the calculation of data with ANFIS used IF
THEN rules. The rules are based on expert
opinion. The number of rules in accordance with
the number of criteria and parameters. In this
study, there are three criteria, namely
temperature, humidity and wind speed. Each
criteria has three parameters so that the number
of rules to 33 = 27 rules.
A. Architecture Design
Design using ANFIS architecture, by using
Takagi-Sugeno type first orde, while for using
Gaussian membership function. The learning process
is carried out using a hybrid algorithm.
ANFIS architecture is determined by the number
of criteria and parameter, there are three input criteria,
namely temperature, humidity and wind speed criteria
which each has 3 parameters. ANFIS structure can be
seen in the image below:
Fig. 8. ANFIS Architecture
B. Output Design
ANFIS conclusion is presented in two categories.
Categories of data obtained by make a categories from
result, and then group it into group 0 and group 1
based on expert opinion. Training data obtained from
the minimum and maximum output values as follows:
TABLE 4
MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM VALUE OF TRAINING
DATA OUTPUT
Sampel Data Minimum Value Maximum Value
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Rain 0 0,5
Not Rain 0,51 1
IV. TESTING RESULT
A. BlackBox Testing
At this stage of the testing done by black box
testing. The testing phase was conducted to ascertain
whether the application has been running well and can
be used by a user or not. Testing is done by examining
weather data input and display the help menu. Testing
is done in MATLAB.
B. Training and Testing Data Examination with
ANFIS Model
Test conducted on the ANFIS models were built.
The purpose of testing is to find the ideal model. Prior
to testing, the model training is done beforehand.
Training the model using the training data and testing
data.
Training data and testing data contains
information about input data such as temperature,
humidity, wind speed and output data is numeric
predictions (rain or not rain).
Models that has been trained are given
appropriate input data testing. The test results are
compared with the predictions of the model output on
testing data. The more equal comparison between the
model output with prediction models, so model will be
more accurate.
C. Model Examination with Training, Testing and
Checking Data.
In testing the data, conducted the training, testing
and checking.
First process, do first examination by input
training data, testing and checking the data of 183
samples.
Fig. 9. Do Training Data
Fig. 10. Do Testing Data
 Fig. 11. Do Checking Data Fig. 16. Training Result

From the total 183 samples and also 180 samples

in the training, testing and checking in, FIS and
ANFIS output results are not much different, and
the results also showed the prediction result is
same with output target (0/1) that got from the
expert.

D. User Interface Implementation

Fig. 12. Training Result
Second process, do second examination by
input training data, testing and checking the data
of 100 samples. The results of the test input and
output can be seen in appendices.
At this stage, the design view of the concept of
weather prediction application has been implemented,
the following is the display interface of the Weather
Prediction Application:
1. Opening Page Display
This is the page that will appear the first time,
when a user accesses the application. This page
will display information from the application
developers. The picture can be seen in Fig. 17.

Fig. 13. Do Training Data

Fig. 17. Opening Page Display

2. Main Menu Display

On this page, user can select an existing 2 menu
in this application, there are weather data input
menu and help menu. The picture can be seen in
Fig. 18.
Fig. 14. Do Testing Data

Fig. 18. Main Menu Display

Fig. 15. Do Checking Data 3. Weather Input Data Display

On this page, users make weather prediction by
input 3 variables listed in the form, then the user
will get the result. The picture can be seen in Fig.
19.

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Fig. 19.Weather Data Input Form
4. Help Menu Display
On this page, the user will be informed about the
range of any number that can be processed to obtain
the desired result weather predictions user. The
picture can be seen in Fig. 20.
[6] Widodo, Prabowo Pudjo, Handayanto, Rahmadya Trias.,
Penerapan Soft Computing dengan MATLAB, Bandung:
Rekayasa Sains, 2009.
[7] Kusumadewi, Sri, Purnomo, Hari., Aplikasi Logika Fuzzy
untuk Pendukung Keputusan, Yogyakarta: Graha Ilmu, 2004.
[8] Kusumadewi, Sri, Purnomo, Hari., Aplikasi Logika Fuzzy
untuk Pendukung Keputusan, Yogyakarta: Graha Ilmu., 2004.
[9] Kusumadewi, Sri, Purnomo, Hari. Aplikasi Logika Fuzzy
untuk Pendukung Keputusan, Yogyakarta: Graha Ilmu, 2004.
[10] Kusumadewi, Sri., Fuzzy Logic MATLAB Toolbox, 2005.
[11] Kusumadewi, Sri, Hartati, Sri., Neuro-Fuzzy Integrasi Sistem
Fuzzy dan Jaringan Syaraf Edisi 2. Yogyakarta: Graha Ilmu,
2010.
[12] Siang, J. J., Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan & Pemrogramannya
menggunakan MATLAB, Yogyakarta: Andi, 2004.

Fig. 20. Help Menu Display

V. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

Based on the research results, the researcher

concluded some of the following:
In general it can be concluded that the use of
Adaptive Neural-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for
weather prediction has a level of accuracy 100%,
because each one is able to predict the qualitative
value of the category 0 (rain) and 1 (not rain) same
with expert opinion, and from total samples 183 and
180 as training data, testing and checking
Based on the results of research by the authors can
provide suggestions for further research are as
follows:
1. The number of input data and also region
object for weather prediction should be
developed in order to have a prediction result
with more diverse categories.
2. Make this application as a web-based system,
so it has a more attractive appearance and
also can be commercialized.

REFERENCES
[1] Sosrodarsono, Suyono., Hidrologi, Jakarta: PT. Pradnya
Paramita, 1985.
[2] Arhami, Muhammad., Konsep Dasar Sistem Pakar.
Yogyakarta: Andi, 2005.
[3] Suyanto., Artificial Intelligence Searching, Reasoning,
Planning and Learning, Bandung: Informatika., 2007.
[4] Siang, J.J. Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan & Pemrogramannya
menggunakan MATLAB, Yogyakarta: Andi, 2009.
[5] Kusumadewi, Sri, Purnomo, Hari., Aplikasi Logika Fuzzy
untuk Pendukung Keputusan. Yogyakarta: Graha Ilmu, 2004.

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