FACTORS AND INTERACTIONS CONTRIBUTING TO THE RISK OF FIRE

FOLLOWING EARTHQUAKE FOR URBAN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

by

William T. Schellhous
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COMMITTEE APPROVAL

The members of William Schellhous’ Thesis Committee certify that they have read the

thesis titled Achieving Zero Waste in Multi-Unit Residential Buildings and recommend that it be

accepted as fulfilling the thesis requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts in Environment

and Management:

Dr. Richard Kool [signature on file]

Final approval and acceptance of this thesis is contingent upon submission of the final

copy of the thesis to Royal Roads University. The thesis supervisor confirms to have read this

thesis and recommends that it be accepted as fulfilling the thesis requirements:

Professor Ann Dale [signature on file]

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ABSTRACT

Earthquakes pose both primary and secondary threats to human life, health, and property.

Primary threats include building collapse, landslide, and falling objects. Secondary threats may

include tsunamis or fires. Fire following earthquake is a secondary earthquake risk that threatens

urban populations in seismically active areas, such as Southern California. The damage from

previous post-earthquake fires has far exceeded the damage from the earthquakes themselves.

Qualitative meta-analysis of many previous studies related to fire following earthquake is

applied in this study to identify and describe the factors and interactions that contribute to the

risk of fire following earthquake for urban Southern California. A simple risk assessment method

is proposed that may inform decision makers of the degree of fire danger that exists following a

significant earthquake. Application of the mitigation opportunities discussed in this study, hold

the potential to save tens of thousands of lives in future earthquake events.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

A research such as this could not be accomplished without the help and guidance of others. I owe

a debt of gratitude to many individuals whose assistance, encouragement, and patience

contributed to the completion of this thesis. I would first like to acknowledge and thank my

family; especially my beloved wife, for the continuous support and willingness to sacrifice,

during the many hours spent on this project. I would also like to thank Dr. Shirley Feldmann-

Jensen, my advisor and thesis chair, for her steady encouragement, tireless patience, and abiding

faith in my ability to complete this work. I also owe thanks to Dr. Steven Jensen, who inspired

me to accomplish more than I thought I could; to Dr. Richard Resurrecion, Ph.D., who’s early

contributions made an important difference; and, to my department advisor, Dr. Peter Kreysa,

Ph.D., who went to bat for me when I needed it. Finally, I would like to thank my fellow students

for their help and suggestions; most importantly, Gregory J. Vigneaux, whose ideas and

encouragement kept me going when I was overwhelmed with mountains of data and information.

To each of you, who had a hand in teaching, inspiring, and guiding me to this point, I extend my

heartfelt thanks.
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Table of Contents
COMMITTEE APPROVAL...............................................................................................................................i
ABSTRACT....................................................................................................................................................ii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...............................................................................................................................iii
Chapter 1: Introduction...............................................................................................................................1
Context of the Study................................................................................................................................2
Problem Justification and Context...........................................................................................................4
Problem for Study Focus..........................................................................................................................5
Research Purpose....................................................................................................................................5
Chapter 2: REVIEW OF LITERATURE.............................................................................................................6
Fire-Following-Earthquake Disasters.......................................................................................................6
Fire-Following-Earthquake Modeling......................................................................................................7
Chapter 3: METHODOLOGY.........................................................................................................................9
Philosophical Assumptions......................................................................................................................9
Research Design and Strategies.............................................................................................................10
Research Design....................................................................................................................................10
Data Collection......................................................................................................................................11
References.................................................................................................................................................13
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Chapter 1: Introduction

Key factors and interactions that contribute to the risk of fire following earthquake for

Southern California are the central focus of this study. The research is intended to increase

understanding of the threat of urban fire following earthquake, and discuss promising mitigation

opportunities. Several models have been developed for simulating fire-following-earthquake

events. However, virtually all existing models are presented mathematically; which may present

challenges for those who are not conversant in mathematical concepts. This study aims to

provide a risk assessment framework that is simple and easy for all to understand. It is further

observed in previous literature, that although there have been many studies conducted on fire

following- earthquake issues, there has been little research on the interactions of factors

contributing to the risk of fire following an earthquake. This study will shed additional light on

how factors affect one another, and describe how their combined effects may magnify overall

threats.
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Context of the Study

During the recent 7-year period between 2004 and 2010, more than 578,000 people died

in earthquakes around the world[ CITATION Cop11 \l 1033 ]. Coppola [ CITATION Cop11 \l

1033 ]reports that these seismic events in which well over a half-million people perished, “are

not close to record breaking, or even unique, in the greater historical context”. The threat of

disaster from the effects of earthquake is a constant reality for millions of people who live in

areas where the frequency of seismic activity is high.

Southern California is one such place where major seismic events are inevitable. The

United States Geological Survey (USGS)1 reports a greater than 99% probability—a near

certainty—that over the next 21 years (30 years reported in 2008) “Californians will experience 2

one or more magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquakes, potentially capable of causing extensive

damage and loss of life” [CITATION HEr \l 1033 ]. In the same report, the USGS further

estimates the probability of a 7.0 or greater earthquake in the Southern California2 area as high as

82%, and indicates that an earthquake magnitude of up to 8.0 is possible within this relatively

short timeframe. Clearly, it is not a question of if a major earthquake will occur in Southern

California, but rather, how soon it will happen.

Earthquakes pose both primary and secondary threats to life, health, property and

economic wellbeing. The primary threats of falling objects, building collapse, ground fissures,

liquefaction, and landslides are easily understood and universally recognized. Less obvious are

the indirect or secondary threats a seismic event can unleash. Secondary threats may include

1
The USGS is the “largest water, earth, and biological science and civilian mapping agency” in the United
States and educates the community on natural disaster.

2
Southern California is a megapolitan area in the southern region of the U.S. state of California. The large urban
areas containing Los Angeles and San Diego stretch all along the coast from Ventura to the Southland and
Inland Empire to San Diego.
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tsunamis in coastal regions, and hazardous materials releases and/or fire ignitions in urban

locations. This study is concerned with the secondary threat of urban fire following earthquake.
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Problem Justification and Context

Significant among the secondary risks associated with earthquakes is the potential for fire

ignition and uncontrolled fire spread in urban areas. Earthquake-caused urban fire spread may

produce the large-scale fire phenomenon known as a conflagration fire. Earthquakes are seldom

recognized by the general population as a conflagration fire threat. However,[ CITATION Sca05

\l 1033 ] observe that during the last century, the greatest loss of life from earthquakes has not

been the result of building collapse, landslides, or tsunamis. They relate, “In both Japan and the

United States, fire has been the single most destructive seismic agent of damage in the twentieth

century”. Scawthorn and Eidinger report 28,000 buildings destroyed and 3,000 deaths in the fires

following the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, and approximately 447,000 homes destroyed and

140,000 deaths in the fires following the 1923 Kanto earthquake in Tokyo. They write, “The

fires following the 1906 San Francisco, and 1923 Tokyo earthquakes rank as the two largest

peace time urban fires in man’s history”. These urban fire disasters demand careful study of the

factors and interactions contributing to their extreme impacts on life and property.

The potential for history to repeat itself by duplicating one of these catastrophic fires

following earthquake is particularly high in Southern California. From January 1, 2001 to

December 31, 2015 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recorded 20

earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or larger around the world (2016). Scientists estimate that a

magnitude 8.0 earthquake in the greater Los Angeles area will cause approximately 1,334

simultaneous fire ignitions, and the more likely (82% probability) 7.0 magnitude earthquake will

produce approximately 778 separate fires[CITATION Sca11 \t \l 1033 ]. In comparison, this is

approximately 10 times the number of ignitions that resulted in more than 140,000 fire deaths in

the fires following the Kanto earthquake in Japan[ CITATION Ham11 \l 1033 ].
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Problem for Study Focus

Recognizing that earthquakes may produce extreme fire threats, it is incumbent upon

community leaders, emergency planners, and response agencies to improve their understanding

of the conditions, circumstances and interactions that contribute to the risk of fire following

earthquake. The specific risks which may contribute to a conflagration fire following an

earthquake must be identified for each community. In addition to understanding the factors

contributing to fire-following-earthquake risk, it is also important to define the interactions and

interdependencies of critical factors which may magnify the problem and compound the risk.

Research Purpose

Complicating the challenges discussed above is the absence of a simple and

comprehensible risk assessment framework for fire following earthquake. The available

literature demonstrates that existing urban fire-risk models are difficult for the non-scientific

community to understand and apply. This research seeks to provide a descriptive model that is

both easy to understand and can be used to quantify risk into comprehensible dimensions for

Southern California communities. In addition, the research explores existing and innovative

strategies for fire deterrence and mitigation in earthquake prone urban areas.
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Chapter 2: REVIEW OF LITERATURE

Current and past literature on fire following earthquake is reviewed in this chapter. The

review includes a chronological summary of significant advancements taken from key studies

that have been conducted on various aspects of fire-following-earthquake concerns. Research

approaches are highlighted, consistencies and inconsistencies are discussed, and remaining

information gaps are identified.

Literature included in the review is taken from the disciplines of geology, mathematical

science, fire safety science, and engineering sciences. The following is organized topically with

studies on similar aspects of fire following earthquake grouped together. The scope of the review

includes key concepts of fire-following-earthquake history, earthquake probability, fire spread

modeling, fire ignition forecasting, meteorological influences, water supply issues, and fire

service operations. Additional topics including urban evacuation and fire-following-earthquake

mitigation concepts are also discussed. The following literature provides an overview of the

current understanding of fire-following-earthquake issues.

Fire-Following-Earthquake Disasters

The worst fire-following-earthquake disaster in recorded history occurred on September

1, 1923, when a 7.9 earthquake struck the Kanto region of Tokyo, Japan. The earthquake

severely hampered firefighting efforts due to extensive damage to the city’s water supply system.

More than 80 fires were started by the earthquake, and there were extremely strong winds which

pushed the fire across the city with surprising speed. J. Hammer reports that “within 15 minutes

the fire had become an inferno of red devouring sheets of flame”. To escape the fast-moving

flames, thousands upon thousands of citizens fled to an empty field near the Sumida River. What
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happened next is almost unthinkable. J. Hammer writes that “the flames closed in from all sides,

and then, at 4 p.m., a 300-foot-tall ‘fire tornado’ blazed across the area”. Records indicate that

“of the 44,000 people who had gathered there, only 300 survived”

As many as 60 fires were started as chimneys collapsed, stoves overturned, and electrical

wires shorted out and arced. Natural gas mains also shattered and added fuel to the fires. Water

supply was almost non-existent.[ CITATION Nid06 \l 1033 ] writes that “shortly after the shock

of the quake, most fire hydrants produced only a weak, sporadic trickle before running

completely dry”. To make matters worse, reservoirs supplying the city’s water system were

severed from the city by the fault line, and the more than 300 water main breaks within the city

quickly drained

what there was of the water in the system.

Fire-Following-Earthquake Modeling

Serious study of fire-following-earthquake issues began in the 1950s with the

development of the first post-earthquake fire spread models. Early models were simplistic and

limited, but their contributions were significant[ CITATION LiS13 \l 1033 ]. The earliest of such

models was the Hamada Fire Spread model developed in 1951[ CITATION Ham51 \l 1033 ].

The Hamada model was improved by the Tokyo Fire Department in 1997 with the development

of the Tokyo- Shinjuku Operating (TOSHO) model, which includes the important considerations

of wind direction and intensity, and exposed building details. According to Scawthorn and

Eidinger, virtually all subsequent fire spread models have been built upon the foundations

established by the Hamada and TOSHO research.

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Methodologies for estimating ignition rates may also improve with future research. Lee

comments that because there is limited data, modeling of post-earthquake ignitions has been

difficult. To address some of the shortcomings of previous modeling methods, new approaches

are being developed. Innovative approaches include generalized linear and generalized linear

mixed models3 (GLMs and GLMMs) which address a broader range of variables. For example,

future models may include more demographic information

such as the percentage of land area that is residential, commercial, industrial, or transportation;

total building area per square kilometer; percentage of building area that is unreinforced

masonry; building design density; median year built; and, number of people per square

kilometer, and so on. Additionally, future research promises greater consistency in developing

standards for measurements and for data inclusion.

3
Generalized linear mixed models (or GLMMs) are an extension of linear mixed models to allow response
variables from different distributions, such as binary responses. Alternatively, you could think of GLMMs as an
extension of generalized linear models (e.g., logistic regression) to include both fixed and random effects (hence
mixed models).
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Chapter 3: METHODOLOGY

The key factors and interactions that contribute to the risk of fire following earthquake

for Southern California are examined in this study. An effort has been made to present the

information in terms that can be more generally understood and applied than the more commonly

used technical and mathematical approaches taken by most researchers on this topic. Descriptive

methodology is used to provide an understandable framework for evaluating risk levels in

individual communities.

Philosophical Assumptions

As in all research, this study is influenced by a combination of assumptions. Creswell

relates that research design is related to philosophical worldviews and their related assumptions.

Acknowledging these assumptions helps to clarify the reasoning supporting the conclusions and

concedes the inherent limitations of the thought processes involved.

The worldview guiding this research is pragmatic. The research seeks to use “all

approaches available to understand the problem”. Creswell writes that “pragmatism is not

committed to any one system of philosophy and reality”. Rather, pragmatism is concerned with

providing “the best understanding of a research problem”. Creswell further relates that

“Pragmatists agree that research always occurs in social, historical, political, and other contexts”;

and that “studies may include a postmodern turn, a theoretical lens that is reflective of social

justice and political aims”.

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Research Design and Strategies

Meta-analysis using qualitative strategies describes the approach of this study. Using a

qualitative process, data was collected, themed, sub-themed, and compared to identify key

issues, relationships, and interdependencies which may aggravate the risk of fire following

earthquake. Conclusions were derived from the data analysis using an inductive theoretical

framework. Inductive reasoning infers general information from specific data by identifying

consistent themes, patterns, and trends. Themes, patterns, relationships and interdependencies

were identified using a large sample of previous studies relating to fire following-

earthquake topics.

Research Design

A substantial volume of data from various fields related to the fire-following-earthquake

problem were examined collectively. The intent was to piece together, and describe in a

qualitative format, the connections within the bigger picture, when viewed from an

interdisciplinary perspective. The meta-analytic approach, produced a large-scale overview, and

illuminated common themes, issues, and established facts. Re-analysis of the combined data

produces “more general conclusions than any of the individual studies could do alone”.

Influential factors and hidden patterns that may be unobservable in studies with a narrower focus

can become evident in the meta-analysis of a larger (combined) data sample with “a broader

overview of the subject”. In addition, the meta-analysis of the data from previous studies

revealed shortcomings and gaps for this and future studies to address. The amount of data

examined required the use of qualitative data

analysis (QDA) software.

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The research design conforms to descriptive methods; seeking to understand and explain,

as clearly as possible, the processes and progressions involved in documented fire-following

earthquake events. The aim of the research is to “describe what is happening and how it

happens”. Descriptive methodology answers research questions with narrative explanations

rather than using mathematical or statistical methods. An advantage to descriptive methodology

is that some readers may find it easier to relate to than complex

statistical explanations.

Data Collection

Data collection was conducted using academic library database searches, Internet

searches, and published literature reviews. Academic Search Complete was accessed through the

CSULB library. Key word searches produced lists of studies for review. Studies meeting

inclusion criteria of peer review, previous reference recognition, and recent publication were

downloaded for review and analysis. Additional materials were found using the Google Scholar

and Research Gate online databases. Articles meeting search criteria were also downloaded for

review and analysis. Reference lists included in the downloaded studies were searched for related

studies providing additional information. Finally, books recommended in the database searches

were obtained and reviewed for relevant information.

A list of fire-following-earthquake events was compiled from the published material. A

list of non-earthquake fire conflagration events was obtained through an Internet search for

major fires in California. Individual fire and earthquake data were obtained for each of the
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historical events from downloaded government reports where available. Where government

reports were not available, other sources were used.

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References

Coppola, D. (2011). Introduction to international disaster management. Retrieved from Disaster

Management: http://www12.statcan.dm.ca/DesasterManagement/2011/as-sa/fogs-
spg/Facts-pr-eng.cfm?Lang=Eng&GC=59
Hamada, M. (1951). On fire spreading velocity in disasters. Tokyo, Japan: Sagami Shobo.
Hammer, J. (2011, July 19). The great Japan Earthquake of 1923. Retrieved 2016, from
Smithsonian Magazine: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-great-japan-
earthquake-of-1923-1764539/?no-ist
Li, S., & Davidson, R. A. (2013). Parametric study of urban fire spread using an urban fire
simulation model with fire department suppression. Fire Safety Journal, 217-225.
Milner, E. H. (2008). Forecasting California’s earthquakes: What can we expect in the next 30
years? Retrieved from Washington, DC: U.S. Geological Survey:
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3027/
Niderost, E. (2006). California catastrophe. Retrieved September 29, 2015, from American
History: http://content.ebscohost.com/ContentServer.asp?
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Scawthorn, C. (2011, November). Fire following earthquake aspects of the southern San
Andreas fault Mw 7.8 earthquake scenario. Retrieved 2017, from Earthquake Spectra:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271041079_Fire_Following_Earthquake_Aspec
ts_of_the_Southern_San_Andreas_Fault_M_w_78_Earthquake_Scenario
Scawthorn, C., Eidinger, J. M., & Schiff, A. j. (2005). Fire following earthquake. American
Society of Civil Engineers, 3-22.