Trend Identification in Power Quality Measurements
Max Domagk, Olga Zyabkina, Jan Meyer, Peter Schegner
Institute of Electrical Power Systems and High Voltage Engineering
Technische Universitaet Dresden
max.domagk@tu-dresden.de
Abstract— Power quality (PQ) levels in public low voltage grids
are influenced by many factors like type of connected customers,
level of distributed generation or climatic conditions. In particular,
type and number of the connected electronic equipment have a
significant impact on PQ levels. Therefore, the introduction of new
device technologies on a large scale, like the transition from
incandescent to LED lamps, might result in long-term changes to
the levels of PQ parameters (e.g. harmonics). Major aims of the
paper are the identification and quantification of long-term trends
in time series of continuous PQ parameters which can support
network operators with the early detection of fundamental changes
in PQ levels. This information can e.g. support the asset
management or network planning in managing PQ levels using
optimized costs. The paper begins with a systematic overview of
major factors with impact on PQ levels and continues with a
classification of their typical variation behavior (short-term,
medium-term and long-term). The analysis of the long-term
behavior (trend) starts with the extraction of a smoothed trend
component based on time series decomposition. This trend
component is used to quantify global trends (looking on the
measurement duration as a whole) and local trends (looking on
individual segments of the whole time series). Finally, the
application of both methods is illustrated for selected voltage and
current quality parameters using a set of three year measurements
from German LV grids with different consumer configuration.
Index Terms—Power quality, harmonics, regression analysis, time
series analysis, time series decomposition
I. INTRODUCTION
Power quality (voltage and current quality) in public low
voltage (LV) grids varies depending on location and time. It is
quantified by a set of different parameters which either are
events (discontinuous parameters like dips) or variations
(continuous parameters like harmonics). This paper
exclusively addresses variations which provide continuous
time series. PQ levels are mainly influenced by the number
and type of equipment connected to the LV grid which is
closely linked to the behavior of the connected customers (e.g.
opening hours of shopping centers) as well as to the behavior
of connected generating installations (e.g. PV production
during the day). Variations of network impedance can be
caused for example by switching state changes of the network
(e.g. one vs. two transformer operation) which have an impact
978-1-4799-8725-2/15/$31.00 ©2015 IEEE
on PQ levels as well. Subsequently, PQ levels in public LV
grids will vary over time. Beside daily, weekly and seasonal
variations, long-term variations are also possible e.g. due to
the introduction of new device technologies (like LED lamps)
on a large scale which normally needs several years. Slow
changes over a number of years are also referred to as trend.
According to the time series theory shorter time intervals like
one year only are strictly spoken tendencies. In order to avoid
confusion this paper will always use the term ‘trend’. The
detailed analysis of trends can be an added value of long-term
measurement campaigns and enables early identification of a
possible increase or decrease of PQ levels and can result in
proactive and punctual actions example in asset management.
Up to now only few papers about trends in continuous PQ
parameters exist (e.g. [1-3]). Other papers like [4] cover
discontinuous PQ parameters. In most cases linear regression
is applied without any pre-processing. This paper aims to
provide a contribution to comprehensive and efficient analysis
of trends in continuous PQ parameters.
II. IMPACT FACTORS ON POWER QUALITY
The different impact factors on power quality are either
allocated to the electrical or to the non-electrical environment.
The electrical environment includes all factors directly related
to type and number of devices connected to the grid and the
grid elements itself [5]. The non-electrical environment
includes all factors having additional impact, in particular on
the usage behavior (e.g. climatic conditions) or penetration
ratio of electric devices.
A. Electrical environment
The factors of electrical environment at the measurement
site can be divided into three different groups [6]. The
consumer configuration describes the amount and type of
consumers connected to the grid which is directly linked to
type and number of disturbing devices. The generation
configuration describes number, type and rated power of the
generating installations connected to the grid. Most of the
installations utilize inverters (e.g. in PV installations) which
can emit e.g. harmonics. The network configuration includes
all factors directly related to the grid. The factors are closely
linked to the short circuit power which determines the voltage
quality levels for a given current emission. Sites with low
short circuit power mostly occur in rural areas whereas sites
with higher short circuit power are commonly located in urban
areas.
B. Non-electrical environment
The non-electrical environment distinguishes also between
three groups. The climatic characteristic like temperature or
global irradiation can considerably affect type and number of
devices in use. On cloudy/rainy days or in case of early
nightfall due to seasonally changing sunset times more
equipment like illumination is expected to be used. Sunny
days lead to higher power production by the generating
installations. The social characteristic includes among others
the spending power which determines if a customer can afford
the most advanced electronic equipment or not. Finally,
economic factors can also impact PQ levels. For example if
the price for energy supplied by distributed generation slightly
increases at a certain time a lot of units might be start feeding
energy into the grid at high coincidence. This was already
observed in Germany with micro combined heat power
systems (micro-CHP).
III. TYPES OF VARIATIONS
Variations of PQ parameters with different time periods
mainly exist due to the impact of the electrical environment.
This section provides a short summary of the different types of
variations which can be classified as shown in Fig. 1. More
details can be found in [5].
short-term medium-term
increased use of equipment like illumination and subsequently
results e.g. in higher emission of harmonics. The generated
energy of PV installations in Germany is significantly higher
during summer months (longer days, higher angle of
insolation). The impact of the network configuration can be
caused by different e.g. switching states of the grid during the
different seasons. A more detailed methodology for the
analysis of seasonal variations can be found in [6].
This paper focuses on the identification of long-term
variations which are usually quantified by trends. Slow
changes in PQ levels can be caused by the large scale
replacement of classical by new device technologies (e.g.
replacement of incandescent lamps by LED lamps) or the
introduction of new types of devices like electrical vehicle
chargers. Depending on the interaction with the existing
devices (level of cancellation) this can result in either
increasing or decreasing PQ levels, like harmonics [7]. Fig. 2
illustrates an increasing trend behavior for the 7th harmonic
voltage measured in building with 26 offices and two shops.
Within the measurement interval an almost steady increase of
the emission levels from 1.1 % up to 1.6 % is observed.
IV. DATASET FOR ANALYSIS
This study analyses voltage and current quality parameters
for RMS, individual harmonics of order 3, 5, 7 and 9. In terms
of distortion, the voltage THD and the total harmonic current
THC are analyzed.
50
long-term
THC THD ˜ I (1) ¦ I 
h 2
(h) 2
(1)
(days to weeks) (weeks to months) (months to years)
Due to the variation of the fundamental current the use of
vir tually low low to medium THC is more robust. It represents the total harmonic current
network

content independent of changes of the fundamental current

config.

none (different swit- (changes in net-

ching states work operation/ magnitude. As common in many standards, for each parameter
of the grid) configuration) the 95th percentiles of the 10-min-mean values for every week
are calculated. This eliminates the always existing short-term
high medium to high medium variations from the data which are not of interest for the trend
generation
impact of

config.

(daily generation (seasonal impact (global change analysis in this study. In order to represent the three major
behavior) on generation to newer
behavior) technologies)
consumer configurations at different sizes the sites:
Residential areas (R):
high medium to high medium
x R1 - multi-family houses with 337 flats
consumer
config.

(daily consumer (seasonal impact (global change

behavior) on consumer
behavior)
Figure 1. Classification of variation types and major impact factors in
public LV grids (based on [2])
Short-term variations are usually characterized by daily
and weekly intervals. These cycles are mainly influenced by
the consumer and generation behavior. Certain consumer
configurations, like offices, show distinctive different daily
patterns for current quality parameters (e.g. working days vs.
weekends).
Medium-term variations over time periods of several
months are related to more general changes in consumer and
generation behavior which are mostly linked to seasonal
effects [5]. Early nightfall during winter months can lead to an
to newer x R2 - multi-family houses with 111 flats
technologies) x R3 - multi-family houses with 96 flats
x R4 - single-family houses with 63 houses
x R5 - single-family houses with 16 houses
Shopping centers (S):
x S1 - electronic market and restaurants
x S2 - electronic market
Office building (O):
x O1 - a building with 26 offices and 2 shops
have been selected. The measurement duration amounts to at
least three years per site and varies between 173 weeks and
201 weeks. Due to the dominating share of single-phase
devices and their random distribution to the phases each phase
(L1, L2 and L3) is considered separately.
Figure 2. 7th harmonic voltage; 95th percentiles of the 10-min-mean values
for 184 weeks from April 2011 to October 2014; site O1; phase L1; time
series (gray) and smoothed trend component (black)
V. METHODOLOGY OF TREND IDENTIFICATION
As a first step of the proposed methodology the time series
of 95th percentiles has to be pre-processed. Therefore, an
exponential smoothing using the STL method (seasonal and
trend decomposition using locally-weighted regression) [10] is
applied in order to extract the trend component. For further
processing of the trend component a ‘global’ and a ‘local’
trend are introduced. While the ‘global’ trend characterizes
longer time intervals of three years or more (commonly the
whole measurement interval), the ‘local’ trend characterizes
only a part of the measurement interval between half a year
and one year. Both trends are quantified by indices which are
introduced in the following subsections.
A. Pre-processing
The additive component model for time series consists of
different components to address each type of variation
introduced in cp. III [8]. This method is also applied in [4] but
for voltage sags only. In general, a time series x is modelled
by four components (cf. to Fig. 1): a cyclic component c
(short-term variations), a seasonal component s (medium-term
variations), a trend component m (long-term variation) and the
residual component u which contains the part that cannot be
explained by the other components. By reason of the use of
the weekly 95th percentiles the cyclic component is removed
and the simplified model contains only three components:
x m s u (2)
STL is a robust method to decompose a time series into a
smoothed trend component m, a seasonal component s and a
rest component u. STL provides still accurate results in
presence of changing seasonal components and/or outliers and
is therefore more suitable than the classic decomposition [9].
It is based on LOESS (locally-weighted regression) which is a
special form of exponential smoothing. LOESS is used to
estimate non-linear relationships [10]. The smoothing mainly
depends on the smoothing window span that is used for
LOESS.
In principle, STL applies LOESS two times in order to
smooth the time series and to extract the seasonal and the
trend component. The user has to specify two window spans,
one for the smoothing of the seasonal component ns and one
for the smoothing of the trend component nm. The span n of
the window determines the number of local data points used
by LOESS and has to be odd. As the period of a seasonal
Figure 3. 3rd harmonic voltage; 95th percentiles of the 10-min-mean values
for 173 weeks from July 2011 to October 2014; site R5; phase L1; time
series (gray) and smoothed trend component (black)
variation is assumed with 52 weeks, the span ns is set to
ns = 53. Based on recommendations in [10] the span for
smoothing the trend component is set to nm = 83. It should be
noted that for the application of the method a time series has
to consist of at least two periods of the expected seasonal
component which equals two years for this application.
Fig. 2 exemplarily presents the 7th harmonic voltage of site
O1 (office building). The time series shows only small
seasonal variations but a steady increase in the emission levels
from 1.1 % to 1.6 %. The increasing trend is more clearly
recognized by the smoothed trend component (black trace).
Fig. 3 presents the 3rd harmonic voltage of site R5 (residential
area). A seasonal variation with higher emission levels during
the weeks in winter season can be identified clearly. This
seasonal variation is efficiently removed in the smoothed trend
component (black trace). The smoothed trend component itself
does not show any significant increase or decrease during the
considered time interval of 173 weeks.
B. Global trend identification
In order to obtain information about an existing global
trend a linear function is fitted to the smoothed trend
component of the whole measurement interval:
t
m D E˜ (3)
52
The parameters are obtained by using a simple least
squares approach which minimizes the sum of squared errors
(SSE):
­
°n § t · ½
2
°
SSE(Dˆ , Eˆ ) min ®¦ ¨ mi  D  E ˜ i ¸ ¾ (4)
D ,E
°i 1 ©
¯ 52 ¹ ¿°
The estimated parameters D̂ (intercept) and Eˆ (slope) per
year are used to calculate a gain value:
Eˆ
g . (5)
Dˆ
The gain g is independent of scale, can be compared
between different PQ parameters and is used to quantify the
global trend. Based on the sign, increasing or decreasing
trends can be easily identified. The absolute value |g| measures
the magnitude of the trend. Based on experiences of the
authors, a significant trend exists for gain values |g| > 5 % per
Figure 4. 3rd harmonic current; 95th percentiles of the 10-min-mean values Figure 5. 7th harmonic current; 95th percentiles of the 10-min-mean values
for 201 weeks from January 2011 to October 2014; site R1; phase L1; time for 184 weeks from April 2011 to October 2014; site O1; phase L1; time
series (gray), smoothed trend component (black); last 4 half year segments series (gray), smoothed trend component (black); last 4 half year segments
are marked, color indicates trend (red: increasing; blue: decreasing) are marked, color indicates trend (red: increasing; blue: decreasing)

year. The gain of +10 % per year for the smoothed trend
component in Fig. 2 indicates a strong increase whereas the
gain of -3 % per year in Fig. 3 represents a negligible decrease
which cannot be considered as trend at all.
Even if the gain indicates the presence of a trend the
significance of this information can be different. In case of
Fig. 2 the variation of the original time series is small in
comparison to the magnitude of the trend itself. Fig. 3 shows
an opposite behavior. The slightly decreasing trend is overlaid
by a distinctive seasonal variation. Even if the trend would
amount -5% instead of -3% it would be less significant
compared to Fig. 2. As first and simple approach to quantify
the significance of the trend, the span s is introduced which is
calculated by
max( xtrend )  min( xtrend )
s (6)
max( xoriginal )  min( xoriginal )
where xtrend is the smoothed trend component and xoriginal is
the original time series. The higher the span s the better is the
significance of a possibly identified trend. For the example in
Fig. 2, the span is 55 %, for the example in Fig. 3 it amounts
to only 29 %. Based on experiences of the authors, a span
higher than 40% indicates a good significance. Only in case
that the gain per year is higher than 5% and the span is higher
than 40 %, a global trend is identified in the time series of a
PQ parameter. It should be noted that the span criteria may fail
under certain circumstances and more suitable and robust
indices (e.g. based on SSE) are under development.
whole measurement interval. Based on the estimated
parameters the gain g is calculated for each segment according
to equation (5).
For the examples in Fig. 4 and Fig. 5 the gain values of the
local trend are listed in Table I and Table II respectively. Both
examples contain seven segments S1 to S7 whereas the last
four are indicated in the Figures. The gain values for the 7th
harmonic current (Table II) show positive gains with small
variation. Even if the last two segments show a slight decrease
of the gain the trend is still significant and consistent. This
result confirms the result of the global trend analysis (g =
+10% per year). For the example in Table I (Fig. 4) the global
trend is g = +21% per year (at a span of 68%) but only the
local trend reveals that after a fast increase in segments S6 and
S7 the last three segments show a slight decrease again. This
relaxation of the trend cannot be identified from the global
trend. As both global and local trend analysis show advantages
and disadvantages the local trend information is deemed to be
the more important information for the network operator.
TABLE I. GAIN FOR EACH HALF YEAR SEGMENT OF THE SMOOTHED
TREND COMPONENT FOR THE 7 HARMONIC CURRENT IN FIG 4
TH
Segment S7 S6 S5 S4 S3 S2 S1
Gain g / % +3 +17 +27 +9 -2 -4 -4
GAIN FOR EACH HALF YEAR SEGMENT OF THE SMOOTHED TREND COMPONENT
FOR THE 3 HARMONIC CURRENT IN FIG 5
RD

C. Local trend identification

The global trend considers only an averaged, general Segment S7 S6 S5 S4 S3 S2 S1
direction of the change and may hide trend developments
Gain g / % +6 +3 +4 +8 +4 +2 +2
within shorter time intervals. Hence, the global trend for the
example in Fig. 4 is increasing by about g = +20%. The last 80
weeks of the measurement interval show a continuous By analyzing the individual segments it becomes possible
decrease of the smoothed trend component. The global trend to detect, if a PQ parameter changes from an increasing to a
completely hides this behavior and additional information on decreasing trend or vice versa. Based on the consistency of the
local trends can be important for network operators to avoid trend (e.g. of the recent four segments) a risk index could be
misinterpretation of global trends. derived for the network operator. The local trend might also
The quantification of the local trend is based on a be updated on a weekly base which allows network operators
segmentation of the measurement interval. Half a year seems to get updated information more frequent than twice a year.
to be a suitable segmentation length for PQ parameters. However, it should be noted that a minimum measurement
Similar to the global trend identification, a linear regression is interval of two years is still required.
applied but now to each individual segment instead on the
Figure 6. Time series with an significant global Figure 7. Time series with an global trend for Figure 8. Time series with an significant global
trend for the 3th harmonic voltage (blue) and the 7th harmonic voltage (blue) and current (red) trend for the 9th harmonic voltage (blue) and
current (red) (R: residential, O: office, S: shop) (R: residential, O: office, S: shop) current (red) (R: residential, O: office, S: shop)

VI. APPLICATION RESULTS
A. Global trend
For each of the 288 time series of 95th percentiles (8 sites,
12 PQ parameters, 3 phases) gain and span have been
calculated automatically. Only those time series meeting the
criteria |g| • 5 % per year and span s • 40 % were selected
for further analysis. Table III provides a summary of the
identified global trends. It should be noted that each phase
counts individual (cf. section IV). For instance the 2 shops
with 3 different phases result in a total amount of 6 time
series. In case of voltage quality, less than 10% of the time
series show an increasing global trend, whereas only 3% show
a decreasing global trend. Trends are only identified for the
3rd, 7th and 9th harmonic voltage. For current quality
parameters more global trends have been identified. About
15% of the time series show increasing global trends while
decreasing global trends are observed for about 13% of the
time series. Looking on the individual phases per site an
interesting behavior is observed for some residential sites.
While most of the PQ parameters in one phase decrease by up
to -15% the same PQ parameters increase by up to +20% in
another phase.
As most of the global trends in voltage and current quality
parameters are observed for 3rd, 7th and 9th harmonic, a more
detailed quantitative analysis is carried out by using the
gain/span plots in Fig. 6 to Fig. 8. The plots do not distinguish
TABLE II. NUMBER OF TIME SERIES WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASING
OR DECREASING GLOBAL TREND (+/-); NUMBER IN BRACKETS NEXT TO
CONSUMER CONFIGURATION (R: RESIDENTIAL, O: OFFICE, S: SHOP)
INDICATES THE TOTAL NUMBER OF AVAILABLE TIME SERIES (PHASES
MULTIPLIED BY SITE NUMBER IN THE RESPECTIVE CONFIGURATION)
between phases and therefore multiple occurrences of one site
mean that a global trend was identified for more than one
phase. The 3rd and 9th harmonic show increase rates of up to
+20% , the highest increase is observed for the 7th harmonic in
one phase of site R1 with +30%. While for the 3rd and 7th
harmonic current has mostly higher gains than the 3rd and 7th
harmonic voltage the 9th harmonic shows an opposite
behavior. Significant global trends are identified for 29 % and
the harmonic voltage for 38 % of the measurements. The
measurement in O1 shows increasing global trends for the 9th
harmonic voltage and current in all three phases. The
harmonic currents increase by about g = +10 % per year
steadily from 10 A up to 14 A within four years. The
corresponding harmonic voltages shows a gain of +16 % per
year and increases from 0.3% up to 0.5 %.
B. Local trend
If the gains calculated for all individual segments of a time
series do not vary too much, the trend within the whole
measurement interval is consistent and the analysis of the
global trend is reliable and sufficient (cf. to Table I). Sudden
increases or decreases lasting only a few segments cannot be
detected by the global trend and can even exist if no global
trend is identified at all. Such local variations are important
information for the network operators. A simple but efficient
index to quantify the level of local trend variations is the range
Rg of the segment gains. As the gain is already scale-
independent the absolute range can be used without further

VOLTAGE QUALITY PARAMETERS:

+/- RMS THD U(3) U(5) U(7) U(9)
R (15) 0/0 0/0 2/4 0/0 0/0 6/0
O (3) 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 2/0 3/0
S (6) 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0
CURRENT QUALITY PARAMETERS:
+/- RMS THC I(3) I(5) I(7) I(9)
R (15) 0/1 3/4 2/3 3/4 4/1 2/0
Figure 9. Cumulative distribution function of range of local trends
O (3) 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/0 3/0 3/0 separated for voltage (blue) and current (red) quality paramters
S (6) 0/0 0/1 1/0 0/1 0/2 1/1
Figure 10. Variation range Rg of segment gains vs. its average for the 9th
harmonic current; color indicates wether a global trend was identifed (red)
or not (blue) (R: residential, O: offices, S: shops)
pre-processing. Fig. 9 presents the cumulative distribution
functions for all 288 segmented time series separated by
voltage and current quality. As expected, the time series of
current quality parameters show generally higher gain
variations than those of voltage quality parameters. Whereas
gain variations less than 5% are negligible attention should be
paid to gain variations higher than 10% to 15%. An easy to
interpret risk index could be derived based on the definition of
adequate ranges which qualifies the volatility of the segment
gains.
In order to analyze time series with high gain variations in
more detail plots as shown in Fig. 10 can be used. The Figure
for the 9th harmonic current exemplarily proves that high gain
variations have not necessarily to be detected by the global
trend analysis. The respective time series and smoothed trend
component at R5 are shown in Fig. 11. Even if the absolute
current magnitude is low and not worrying at all the example
illustrates the importance of local trend analysis. The strong
increase within the first 100 weeks (S4-S6) and the subsequent
decrease in segments S1 and S2 can only be analyzed and
identified by the local trend information.
VII. CONCLUSION
The paper provides a methodology to analyze trends in
long-term measurements of PQ parameters. As more and more
network operators run long-term PQ measurement campaigns,
trend analysis can give valuable information in addition to the
weekly reporting. Beside the early detection of possible
fundamental changes in PQ parameters it will be useful for
planning purposes. The method is based on time-series of
weekly calculated 95th percentiles and can be applied to any
continuous voltage or current quality parameter. In the first
step the STL method is used to decompose the time series and
extract the smoothed trend component. Global trend and local
trend are quantified based on several indices like the gain g
representing the scale-independent change within a defined
time interval. While the global trend considers the time series
as a whole which should have at least three years
measurement data the local trend analysis divides the whole
measurement into half year segments which are individually
analyzed. The analysis of long-term measurements at 8
different sites has shown considerable global trends
(increasing as well as decreasing) in more than 10% of the
time series. An annual gain |g| > 5 % is used to identify the
significance of a global trend. The local trend analysis shows
Figure 11. 9th harmonic current; 95th percentiles of the 10-min-mean values
for 174 weeks from July 2011 to October 2014; site R5; phase L2; time
series (gray), smoothed trend component (black) and half year
segmentation, color indicates trend (red: increasing; blue: decreasing)
that about 50% of the time series have gain variations within
half-year segments of more than 10%. Furthermore, the
variation of the segment gains (local trends) is an efficient
indicator for the consistency and reliability of a respective
global trend. Ongoing research is especially dedicated to the
development of more robust indices and easy-to-interpret,
aggregated risk indicators. For local trend analysis all segment
gains are updated with each additional segment. The impact of
this characteristic on the result interpretation is also addressed.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors wish to thank the German Research
Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft - DFG) for
funding this project.
REFERENCES
[1] H.M.S.Chandana Herath, S. McHardy, “Power Quality Trends in
Energy Australia Distribution Network”, 13th International Conference
on Harmonics and Quality of Power (ICHQP), 2008.
[2] S. Elphick, V. Smith, V. Gosbell, R. Barr, “The Australian Long Term
Power Quality Survey Project Update”, 14th International Conference
on Harmonics and Quality of Power (ICHQP), 2010.
[3] M. Benedikt, „Koordinierte Messreihen zur Spannungsqualität im
Rahmen des VEÖ“ (Systematic voltage quality measurements in
Austria) VDE Kongress, ETG Fachtagung Versorgungsqualität, 2008.
[4] E. A. Mertens, L. F. S. Dias, F. A. Fernandes, B. D. Bonatto, J. P. G.
Abreu, and H. Arango, “Evaluation and trends of power quality indices
in distribution system”, 9th International Conference on Electrical
Power Quality and Utilisation, EPQU, 2007.
[5] J. Meyer, P. Schegner, and G. Eberl, “Increasing the Reliability of
Indices for Power Quality Assessment in Distribution Networks”, 13th
International Conference on Harmonics and Quality of Power
(ICHQP), 2008.
[6] M. Domagk, J. Meyer, and P. Schegner, “Seasonal Variations in Long-
Term Measurements of Power Quality Parameters”, IEEE Conference
PowerTech, 2015.
[7] A. Gil-de-Castro, S. Ronnberg, M. H. J. Bollen, A. Moreno-Munoz,
and V. Pallares-Lopez, “Harmonics from a domestic customer with
different lamp technologies”, 15th International Conference on
Harmonics and Quality of Power (ICHQP), 2012.
[8] R. H. Shumway and D. S. Stoffer, Time Series Analysis and Its
Applications, vol. 2. Springer, 2006.
[9] S. Makridakis, S. C. Wheelwright, and R. J. Hyndman, Forecasting:
methods and applications, 3. ed. Wiley, 1998.
[10] R. Cleveland and W. Cleveland, “STL: A seasonal-trend decomposition
procedure based on loess,” Journal of Statistical Software, vol. 6, no. 1,
pp. 3-73, 1990.
[11] W. Cleveland and S. Devlin, “Locally weighted regression: an
approach to regression analysis by local fitting,” Journal of the
American Statistical Association, vol. 83, no. 403, pp. 596–610, 1988.