Contributions to an analysis of the internal crisis in the United States

Facundo Escobar.- UWI Data

28-1-2021

https://uwidata.com/15528-contributions-to-an-analysis-of-the-internal-crisis-in-the-
united-states/

We all witnessed what has happened in the United States over the past few weeks. The
Presidential Election, Biden’s Victory, Trump’s Rebellion, the attack on the Capitol, the
second impeachment and finally the presidential inauguration on January 20. In this
article we will discuss the emergence of a third political force in the midst of the American
oligarchic two-party system that we will hypothetically and circumstantially refer to as
Trumpism. We will also address the existence and advanced development of
organizations, ideologies and radical pro-system, pro-capitalist discourses that today
circulate and operate with force. This is intended as a contribution to a discussion about
what may come, given the US crisis’ potential repercussions for the world system,
emerging multipolarism and the development of imperialism.

A third force?

Much has been said about the creation of a third party, for the time being represented
by Trump, his followers, part of the Republican Party (GOP), as well as the organizations
and movements that manifested themselves on January 6, both during the storming on
the Capitol and in the many and diverse (and massive) demonstrations that took place
throughout the country. The blue-red bipartisan system has been in place for 200 years
and for many, it seems it could never be broken, at least until now. What are the
characteristics of this rising force? Is it different than the ones the movements that have
previously attempted to break the political order? Can it be consolidated?

Several elements contradict the idea that Trump’s political career is over. Surely many
Republicans will seek to distance themselves from him: the Republican National
Committee condemned the attack on Capitol Hill and 10 Congressional Republicans
voted to impeach Trump a second time. But we also know that two-thirds of House
Republicans voted to decertify the election results and 93% of them voted against the
impeachment. According to an Axios-Ipsos poll (Jan. 12 and 13) 64% of those who
consider themselves republicans support Trump’s recent behavior –representing a long
standing tendency in the party, and thanks to which he obtained 75 million votes in 2020
(11+ million more than in 2016). Also, 57% of them said that Trump should be the GOP
candidate in the 2024 presidential elections, while only 17% said that he should be
removed from office. Another poll (YouGov, Jan. 7) showed that 45% of republican voters
approve the attack on the Capitol. This is potentially a formidable foundation for anyone
who hopes to make Trumpism a rising force.

Trump expressed, embodied and channeled a range of interests from a wide swath of
the population. In addition to his opposition to the rigged elections, it is possible to find a
convergence in this sector´s motivations, to various degrees and combinations: mistrust
of the federal government and traditional state figures (whom they see as their main
enemy), white supremacy, anti-immigration, racism and xenophobia, anti-communism,
anti-Semitism, anti-feminism, homophobia and Islamophobia. They also share a belief
in Christian nationalism, criticism over the development of the corporate, oligarchic,
academic elites, Silicon Valley and Wall Street, especially given the massive state aid it
was granted last year.
Radicalism

Much of the aforementioned crystallizes in a range of experiences, radicalized,

moderate, peaceful and also armed. According to the Southern Poverty Law Center,
there are now 623 such groups (of which 165 are armed militias) and have grown rapidly
since 2008. On January 6 and during the days before, there were multiple
demonstrations nationwide. In many of them, attendees carried firearms. Similar
demonstrations were held throughout 2020 and are still taking place on a daily basis, in
many cases, as protests against state and government figures in general. The attack on
the Capitol was merely the highest point.

Many of those who marched in January to force the Senate to decertify the election
results are under the influence of the far-right conspiracy theory group Qanon, a
movement with a growing number of adherents and great propaganda capacity. This
movement is oriented by racist ideas, and points its most rancorous criticism towards the
“deep state”, a force that allegedly controls the US behind the scenes. They spread ideas
such as that the pandemic lockdowns are a part of a broad range of maneuvers planned
by oligarchs to destroy small and medium businesses and further concentrate their
interests and power. These oligarchies are allegedly orchestrating a kind of soft
totalitarianism in the face of the awakening of the masses (Trump supporters), hoping to
destroy the movement and shut them off. The FBI considers QAnon a potential domestic
terrorism threat. Facebook data since the start of 2020 shows QAnon membership grew
by 581% and was brought to the mainstream by at least 97 US congressional candidates.

The gun-rights movement has played a fundamental role in inculcating insurrectionist

fantasies for decades, defending the right to keep and bear firearms. There are hundreds
of millions of privately owned firearms in the US, and they disproportionately belong to
white people.

People’s Rights is a group founded in early 2020 based on a harsh opposition to

government. Due to coronavirus restrictions, they grew massively reaching 20,000
members, especially in Montana, Idaho, Oregon and Washington. Its founder, Ammon
Bundy, a conservative activist, led several armed standoffs with security and law
enforcement in previous years. In early December 2020, dozens of members gathered
in Emmett, Idaho, in preparation for what they understand is an imminent armed
confrontation with the government. “We are getting ready,” said Bundy. The group
carried out many other protests in 2020 (in medical districts, government offices,
legislatures, police departments while its members were summoned or detained). Last
August, they broke into the Idaho legislature clashing with the police while carrying guns
in order to pressure legislators. One of them, Rep. Chad Christensen, showed up
wearing a bulletproof vest and a 45-caliber pistol he has carried since he was elected.

The Proud Boys, founded in 2016 by Vice Media co-founder Gavin McGinnes, is a group
known for carrying out violent clashes with left-wing groups and the police. They present
themselves as “western chauvinists” and wear black and yellow Polo shirts. The group’s
beliefs include the fight for minimum government, maximum freedom, opposition to the
war on drugs, and a closed border policy. They were among those that marched to the
Capitol on January 6. On the way, they stopped to pray to Jesus and give thanks for their
“wonderful nation”, asking God for the restoration of their system of values. During the
Second Million Dollar MAGA March in DC last Dec. 12, they clashed with police and
antifa groups, resulting in 4 people being stabbed. On Jan. 4, one of their leaders
(Enrique Tarrio) was arrested, accused of destruction of property and illegal possession
of firearms. They maintain a close relationship with Trump via the Latino Trump support
group. Nicholas Och, founder of the Hawaiian chapter, was also arrested for participating
in the attack on Capitol Hill.

The Boogaloo movement, a group of libertarians, anti-government and anti-police

activists, are pressing for a second civil war and the collapse of society. They look for
excuses to engage in violent conflicts (gun-control measures, Black Lives Matters
protests, the 2020 elections, etc.) wearing hawaiian shirts, tactical gear and sporting
assault rifles. They burst onto the public scene in January 2020 in Virginia during a huge
pro-gun rally in Richmond. They say they don’t tolerate racism. In October 2020, 13 of
their members were arrested in Michigan, accused of planning the kidnapping of
Governor Gretchen Whitmer, according to NBC News.

The Three Percenters are an American-Canadian paramilitary formed in 2008 with a far-
right libertarian ideology and 10,000 members. They focus on the rights to bear arms
and to resist the federal government. The Anti-Defamation League claims that this group,
along with the Oath Keepers (formed in 2009) have grown since the first Obama
administration, and allegedly have the capacity to recruit among members of law
enforcement and the military.

We might also mention the KKK, which has active chapters in most states of the
federation, and is estimated to have between 5,000 and 8,000 members. There is also
the Nazi American Party, the National Socialist Movement, Posse Comitatus (County
Force), the National Alliance, the Eighty Percent Coalition, and the Nationalist Socialist
Club or NSC-131, which asked for a permit to gather 10.000 people in Freedom Square
in DC in January.

There are also other active groups like No White Guilt, a white nationalist group that
claims to fight “anti-whiteism” denouncing that this is the main reason for the spread of
the coronavirus. All these groups remain active after January 6. A few hours after Biden’s
inauguration, in Oregon (one of the five states with the highest risk of increased activity
by armed groups, which today has more than 80 right-wing militia organizations), a group
of 100 people (some of them carrying firearms) clashed with the police in the street and
wielded slogans against immigration and the new president.

Beyond armed extremism

The political movement that resulted in the January 6 attack are not only led by radicals,
white nationalists and extremists. Months before the attack, the complex machinery of
conservative activism was put into operation. Nonprofit organizations were vectors for
massive peaceful and legal demonstrations and their protests featured by women, men,
youth, the elderly, and children. Tens of millions of dollars flowed from the Donors Fund
to the Tea Party Patriots Foundation, the VDARE Foundation (anti-immigration), Fund
85, the Judicial Education Project (or Honest Elections Project), Project Veritas, the
Center for Security Policy or Turning Point USA, according to CNBC. From this emerged
the Stop the Steal Movement, the Patriot Caravan (buses headed for Washington from
all over the country), the Save the Republic March on January 5 and the Freedom March
on the morning of January 6. Some other groups included Women for America First,
made up of former Tea Party activists, which obtained permission to use public space at
what they called the March for Trump, the Republican Attorneys General Association
and the aforementioned Turning Point USA (which works among conservative students)
and Turning Point Action (the activist arm), the Tea Party Patriots, and the Council for
National Policy, an influential group of far-right Christians that has grown throughout the
country for decades and maintained excellent relations with the Trump administration.
The Republican Party —including local, state and federal lawmakers, elected officials,
and dozens of local Republican Party chapters—actively supported the January 6 rally.
Some of them personally attended (and at least one was caught on video storming the
Capitol building during the riot), others fueled supporters’ rage, and dozens of
Republican Party local chapters used their social media platforms to help organize bus
trips to D.C. Not all of those who participated in the storming of the Capitol were neo-
Nazis wearing masks and carrying the Confederate flag– however, most do seem to
share the ideas crystallized by Qanon and other conspiracy theories and believe that the
establishment must be brought down so that the nation can return to its founding
principles.

The upcoming political struggle

Trump seems to have successfully challenged these interests, materializing, leading,

channeling, catalyzing, embodying and finally developing a socio-cultural articulation that
might be turning into a social force. The political and rhetorical style of Trumpism carved
out space for all these groups and ideologies to mobilize, organize and reproduce.
Stephen Bannon is a former White House strategist credited as being the architect
behind the rise of “America First” right-wing movement. He actively positions QAnon
apocalyptic and anti-establishment desires as one of the main drivers of the idea of the
stolen election and recently said on his ‘War Room’ show that “With the senate trial what
they are trying to do is to strip Trump from having any political influence or any political
power, and make sure he cannot run again for federal office in 2024. They’re Trying to
shut down the Great Awakening”, but “Trump is going to take back the White House in
2024” he insisted.

Nonetheless, the movement seems to go beyond Trump. As we said, the mobilization

on January 6 was carried out by national and local institutions of the GOP. Will somebody
be able to keep together this network of identities, ideologies, interests and collective
movements, without the GOP and supportive state institutions? There are many hurdles
in the way. Trump and many of his closest collaborators are facing a various range of
judicial showdowns. A new party will require a significant investment of time and
resources and it will surely face intense opposition from the GOP, which realizes that
Trump/Trumpism could break up the party’s electoral base. A third party must also have
constant and abundant financial support. Trump still controls the funds raised since the
election (more than $150 million), but that is not enough. Meanwhile, the business class
is now cutting ties with Trump. Several organizations and institutions have taken actions
and issued public statements and declarations rebuking him. The Business Roundtable,
which represents some of the most powerful companies in the US and over 200 chief
executives, issued a statement calling on “the president and all relevant officials to put
an end to the chaos and to facilitate the peaceful transition of power” and recognized
Biden as president-elect.

The US Chamber of Commerce advocated certifying the winner of the presidential vote.
The National Association of Manufacturers published a strong condemnation of the
events of January 6 calling for Trump to be removed from office. BlacRock CEO, Larry
Fink, and JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon issued statements to the same effect. A third
party will need endorsement and backing from capital. This will be a defining battle-
ground. To this must be added the challenge of Big Tech, media conglomerates,
academia and other institutions (Harvard expelled a GOP senator who voted against
certification of 2020 election results) as well as major Think Tanks. Twitter, Instagram,
Facebook, Youtube cancelled Trump’s accounts. Amazon, following in the footsteps of
Google and Apple, blocked the conservative social media network Parler after warning
the company that it would lose access to its servers for failing to moderate hate
messages and support for those who stormed Congress and called for new protests.
Nevertheless, we must assume the existence of a vast movement that cannot be blocked
so easily, which is driven by a peculiar set of ideological points we might call Trumpism.
Trump himself already said it in one of his last messages: “We will never give up.” Here
we have the concrete existence of a real social movement, very complex and diverse,
spread throughout the nation. It is not temporary or unstable, and already has years of
development and several battles under its belt. It has shown that all it needs is to find
political channeling, just as it did with Trump. The establishment will seek to operate in
unity to defeat this phenomenon given that it has already shown itself as a threat to the
oligarchic bipartisan political system. Do the Democrats, the Biden administration, the
establishment, already consider Trump “a pariah as his era in power ends” (CNN)? Will
everything that we saw expressed on January 6 vanish into thin air? Or will the new
administration weigh this as a sign of the rise of a new political force and therefore it
must be crushed?

“Don’t dare call them protesters. They were a riotous mob. Insurrectionists. Domestic
terrorists.” Biden said on January 6. He and other senators have already indicated that
they will launch a policy against terrorism based on the Patriot Act. Biden not only voted
in favor of the Act in 2001, on several occasions he claimed credit for its authorship: “I
drafted a terrorism bill after the Oklahoma City bombing.”

The crisis is likely to continue and deepen. How would this impact on the local and
international scale? It does not seem possible to rule out the continuation of protests and
collective demonstrations in the US. What will be the government’s response? On
January 6, Trump led his people to escalate the conflict and ended up leaving an indelible
mark on Biden’s inauguration. Many of Trump’s supporters see Biden as a tyrant, and
exclaim that “He is not my president!”. Domestic terrorism may be applied to armed
radicalism, the extreme right, etc., but there will also be an endeavor to include any
expression of rebellion against the liberal order, including anti-capitalism, leftist
radicalism and any grassroots movement that tries to transform reality. Persecution,
prolonged repression, censorship, surveillance and the crushing of civil liberties are
possible reactions for any and all dissenters. In the end, the establishment has regained
power and is preparing to reconstitute, recreate and reposition itself in the new global
order. The issue will be whether the US will be able to restore itself in accordance with
its imperial fantasy or be forced to accept a different mode of integration.