Name: Zayeem Ahmed Siddique Roll No.

: H2025088 Major Department: Statistics

The Environmental Changes from the Past Decade in

the Planet and the Impact of Pandemic

Introduction
Environmental change is a change or disturbance of the environment most often caused by
human influences and natural ecological processes. Environmental changes include various
factors, such as natural disasters, human interferences, or animal interaction. Environmental
change encompasses not only physical changes, but also factors like an infestation of invasive
species.

Environmental Changes over Past Decade

Most scientific reports on climate look at changes that have occurred since the pre-industrial era
or since record-keeping began. But even looking back at the past decade, it’s clear that our world
today is very different from the world of 2010. Analyzing data on greenhouse gas (GHGs)
concentrations, temperature rise, sea level rise and more reveal troubling trends.
There were some important bright spots for climate over the past 10 years. At the start of the
decade, projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggested that world’s emissions
trajectory put it on course for a catastrophic 6˚C of warming by the end of the century,
significantly higher than the 1.5-2 degrees C (2.7-3.6 degrees F) scientists recommend staying
under to avoid the worst climate impacts. This year’s IEA report projects warming of 2.9-3.4˚C
with current policies, a testament to the very different emissions trajectory the world forged this
past decade.
The growth of renewable energy also far exceeded expectations. The price of solar PV dropped
81% since 2009. By 2017, the majority of new power-generating capacity added worldwide
came from renewable energy.
And the recent groundswell of citizen action is unprecedented, with millions around the world
taking to the streets, engaging in climate action and demanding greater action from decision-
makers.
While these examples and others show remarkable progress, overall our climate system is
making it clear that we are not acting quickly enough. Here are several notable trends we can see
just over the past decade:

1. Increase in Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels

The Global Carbon Project reported earlier this month that global carbon dioxide emissions from
fossil fuels and cement are on track to climb to a record high in 2019. While global emissions

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 Name: Zayeem Ahmed Siddique Roll No.: H2025088 Major Department: Statistics

growth platitude between 2014 and 2016, it was short-lived: Emissions from fossil fuels grew
1.5% in 2017, 2.1% in 2018 and are projected to grow another 0.6% in 2019.

Fig: CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and cement

The latest climate science suggests that our best chance of limiting warming to 1.5-2 degrees C
will require emissions to peak no later than 2020 and drop to net-zero by mid-century. A critical
question is whether we’ll see signs next year of emissions peaking and declining afterwards.
A decade’s worth of UNEP Emissions Gap Reports document the growing gap between where
emissions are headed and where they need to be. Even if countries fully implement their current
climate commitments, the research shows we’ll still face an emissions gap in 2030 of 32 GtCO2e
(about twice the size of China and India’s combined emissions) for the 1.5 degrees C goal, and
15 GtCO2e for the 2 degrees C goal.

2. Increase in Global Average Temperature

In 2010, global average temperature was 0.88˚C (1.6˚F) above pre-industrial levels. Temperature
increase in 2019 is shaping up to be about 1.1 degrees C (2˚F) above pre-industrial levels.

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 Name: Zayeem Ahmed Siddique Roll No.: H2025088 Major Department: Statistics

Fig: Temperature increase over last decade

Against this backdrop of climbing temperatures, countries around the world also agreed this past
decade to limit warming to well below 2 degrees C, and ideally 1.5 degrees C. A definitive report
from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found that the world will face
severe climate impacts even with 1.5 degrees of warming, and the effects get significantly worse
with 2 degrees. For example, under 1.5 degrees C of warming, it is very likely that the Arctic
will have one sea-ice-free summer every 100 years; at 2 degrees C, the frequency increases to at
least one every 10 years.

3. Increase in Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere

Temperatures increase as the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rises. Not too
long ago, the idea of surpassing 400 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide, a symbolic
threshold which Earth has not experienced for millions of years, felt quite far off. In 2010,
carbon dioxide concentrations at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii were 390 ppm on
average. By 2018, they were well beyond the 400-ppm threshold, with measurements reaching
408 ppm. (For context, pre-industrial concentrations of carbon dioxide were 280 ppm.)
Between 2000 and 2009, the average growth rate of carbon dioxide concentrations at Mauna Loa
was 2 ppm. Between 2010 and 2018, this figure grew to 2.4 ppm/yr. In 2018, the growth rate was
2.9 ppm/yr.

4. Rise in Sea Level

Global mean sea level rise was roughly 3.3 millimeters (mm) per year (0.13 inch/yr) between
1993 and the present. This trend accelerated significantly this past decade: Between 2010 and
2018, sea level rise grew to about 4.4 mm/yr. (0.17 inch/yr.), rising almost 2 inches overall in the
past decade. In 2018, global mean sea level was the highest in the satellite record.

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 Name: Zayeem Ahmed Siddique Roll No.: H2025088 Major Department: Statistics

Fig: Sea Level Change

Eight of the world’s 10 largest cities are located in vulnerable coastal areas. Seas rising by even a
couple of inches leads to more frequent high-tide flooding, storm surges pushing further inland,
and devastating risks to homes, habitat and infrastructure.

5. Decreased in Ice Level

Sea ice extent is smallest in September every year. The rate of September sea ice decline has
been 13% per decade relative to the 1981-2010 average. During this past decade, Arctic sea ice
minimum reached its lowest level since at least 1979, the year record -keeping began.
Ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica have also been losing mass, with an acceleration of loss
in just the last decade.

Fig: Antarctic Ice Mass Loss

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 Name: Zayeem Ahmed Siddique Roll No.: H2025088 Major Department: Statistics

Glaciers around the world are also losing ice, accelerating with each passing decade. Glacier
melt grew from 460 milliliters of liquid water in the 1990s to 500 in the 2000s to 850 milliliters
in 2010-2018.
Ice loss can lead to rising seas. It can also change the ocean’s surface reflectivity, exposing dark
waters that absorb more solar radiation — much like a dark shirt on a hot, sunny day — in turn
leading to greater warming and a positive feedback loop.

6. Extreme Weather Became More Frequent and Severe

This past decade has been marked by devastating extreme events, including heat waves on land
and in the ocean, record rainfall and flooding, massive fires and heat-charged hurricanes.
Communities around the world are already living with the impacts of just 1 degrees C (1.8
degrees F) of warming; our climate will only become deadlier and more devastating with every
additional fraction of a degree of temperature rise.
Recent research confirms that extreme weather is getting more frequent and severe. The
probability of drought has increased substantially in the Mediterranean region due to human-
caused emissions. Extreme heat waves are increasing with further warming. And there is
significant evidence that human-induced warming has resulted in the increased frequency,
intensity and/or amount of heavy precipitation events. In 2017, Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose
and Maria all reached unprecedented rapid intensification, with Irma setting a record for
sustained winds of 185 miles/hr. Harvey and Maria had record -setting rainfall, with warmer
water temperatures fueling extreme precipitation.
At the same time, the science of attribution, looking at how much climate change increased the
odds of any one particular event occurring, has advanced remarkably over this past decade.
Important assessments include those from the National Academies and the Bureau of the
American Meteorological Society, which published eight reports explaining how climate change
may have affected extreme events from 2011 to 2018. Among many other examples, the reports
found that climate change increased the odds of intense heat waves in northeast Asia in 2018 and
in southern Europe in 2017, exceptional precipitation in Mid -Atlantic states in 2018, and an East
African drought in 2017, which contributed to food insecurity. In addition, several international
research programs came together to develop the World Weather Attribution project to analyze
the role of climate change in extreme events.

Impact of Pandemic on Environmental Change

The COVID-19 pandemic is wreaking havoc in countries across the globe, causing a global
health crisis and forcing economies to slow down due to the strict quarantine measures.
However, the outbreak has also impacted the environment in an intriguing way. As the pandemic
spreads in different parts of the world, its consequences run farther than closed borders, scarce
hand sanitizer, and social distancing protocols.
COVID-19 is affecting the lives of millions of people and, also, the environment. The CO 2
emissions and human mobility have been reduced, which improves air quality and encourages

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 Name: Zayeem Ahmed Siddique Roll No.: H2025088 Major Department: Statistics

wild animals to come out and explore the cities. But how sustainable is this positive effect in the
long term?
Scientists have confirmed that air quality in certain regions has improved in recent weeks. As
industries, aviation, and other means of transportation stop, air pollution is reduced countries
severely affected by the virus, such as China, Italy, and Spain. A reduction in commuting due to
work from home policies has also played its part in reducing carbon emissions.
According to Steven Davis, Associate Professor in the Department of Earth System Science at
the University of California, in recent years, we have generated around 500 tons of CO 2 per $1
million of the world’s GDP. In 2019, 40 billion tons of CO 2 were emitted per $88 billion of the
world’s GDP. If this correlation persists, a decrease of the world’s GDP due to the imminent
economic recession might generate a reduction in the global CO 2 emissions in a similar
proportion.
Furthermore, Randolph Bell, Director of the Global Energy Center, explained in the Atlantic
Council that the economic recession linked by the virus is likely to cause a drop in the carbon
dioxide emissions for this year. He indicated that NASA’s satellite images have evidenced the
pollution reduction in China right after the carbon emissions had dropped by 25% in four weeks
of lockdown.
In the long term, the COVID-19 pandemic will offer lessons and opportunities leading to
environmental action. For instance, we will have a new baseline of what can be achieved
digitally: remote work, education, shopping, and more. In addition, as our governments, private
institutions, and even social media succeed in partnering, we will possibly feel more capable of
tackling other pressing issues such as climate change. Our response to this health crisis will
shape how we will deal with a climate crisis in the next decades. Times of change can lead to the
introduction of long-lasting sustainable habits. Thanks to the outbreak, some habits that are
incidentally beneficial to the environment may last since people will have experienced scarcity.
For example, the reduction of travel, personal consumption, and food waste.
Clearly, human beings are part of nature and all activity that impacts the environment also
impacts us. According to Marshall Burke from the Department of Earth System Science at
Stanford University, in China, just two months of reduced pollution has saved the lives of 4000
children under the age of 5 and 73000 adults over the age of 70. Perhaps, this is not a question of
whether the virus is “good” or “bad” for the climate, but instead if we can create a functional
economic system that supports people without threatening the life of Earth.
It is safe to say that no one wanted carbon emissions to be reduced this way. COVID-19 has a
dark cost to our lives, healthcare systems, and mental health of people around the world.
Nevertheless, it has also shown that communities can make a difference when they take care of
each other, and this could be an invaluable lesson when we face climate change..
Up to 2020, increase in the amount of greenhouse gases produced since the beginning of the
industrialization era caused average global temperatures on the Earth to rise, causing effects
including the melting of glaciers and rising sea levels

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 Name: Zayeem Ahmed Siddique Roll No.: H2025088 Major Department: Statistics

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, measures that were expected to be recommended to health
authorities in the case of a pandemic included quarantines and social distancing.
Independently, also prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers argued that reduced economic
activity would help decrease global warming as well as air and marine pollution, allowing the
environment to slowly flourish. This effect has been observed following past pandemics in 14th
century Eurasia and 16th-17th century North and South America.

1. Air quality
NASA and ESA have been monitoring how the nitrogen dioxide gases dropped significantly
during the initial Chinese phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. The economic slowdown from the
virus drastically dropped pollution levels, especially in cities like Wuhan, China by 25-40%.
NASA uses an ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) to analyze and observe the ozone layer and
pollutants such as NO 2 , aerosols and others. This instrument helped NASA to process and
interprets the data coming in due to the lock-downs worldwide. According to NASA scientists,
the drop in NO 2 pollution began in Wuhan, China and slowly spread to the rest of the world. The
drop was also very drastic because the virus coincided with the same time of year as the lunar
year celebrations in China. During this festival, factories and businesses were closed for the last
week of January to celebrate the lunar year festival. The drop in NO 2 in China did not achieve an
air quality of the standard considered acceptable by health authorities. Other pollutants in the air
such as aerosol emissions remained.

Fig: NO2 levels in China at the beginning of 2020.

A joint research led by scientists from China and U.S. estimated that nitrogen oxides (NO x =
NO+NO 2 ) emissions decreased by 50% in East China from 23 January (Wuhan lockdown) to 9
February 2020 in comparison to the period from 1 to 22 January 2020. Emissions then increased

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 Name: Zayeem Ahmed Siddique Roll No.: H2025088 Major Department: Statistics

by 26% from 10 February (back-to-work day) to 12 March 2020, indicating possible increasing
socioeconomic activities after most provinces allowed businesses to open. It is yet to be
investigated what COVID-19 control measures are most efficient controlling virus spread and
least socioeconomic impact.
According to the World Health Organization, more than 80% of individuals living in cities are
exposed to dangerous air pollution, which has been associated to an increased risk of COVID-19
problems and mortality.

2. Water quality
Oregon State University researchers testing wastewater for the virus that causes COVID-19
Peru
The Peruvian jungle experienced 14 oil spills from the beginning of the pandemic through early
October 2020. Of these, eight spills were in a single sector operated by Frontera Energy del Perú
S.A. which ceased operations during the pandemic and is not maintaining its wells and pipes.
The oil seeps into the ground where it contaminates the drinking water of indigenous people in
Quichua territory.
Italy
In Venice, shortly after quarantine began in March and April 2020, water in the canals cleared
and experienced greater water flow. The increase in water clarity was due to the settling of
sediment that is disturbed by boat traffic and mentioned the decrease in air pollution along the
waterways.

3. Deforestation and reforestation

The disruption from the pandemic provided cover for illegal deforestation operations. This was
observed in Brazil, where satellite imagery showed deforestation of the Amazon rainforest
surging by over 50 percent compared to baseline levels. Unemployment caused by the COVID-
19 pandemic facilitated the recruitment of labourers for Pakistan's 10 Billion Tree Tsunami
campaign to plant 10 billion trees – the estimated global annual net loss of trees – over the span
of 5 years.

4. Carbon emissions
A study published in May 2020 found that the daily global carbon emissions during the
lockdown measures in early April fell by 17% and could lead to an annual carbon emissions
decline of up to 7%, which would be the biggest drop since World War II according to the
researchers. They ascribe these decreases mainly to the reduction of transportation usage and
industrial activities. However, it has been noted that rebounding could diminish reductions due to
the more limited industrial activities. Nevertheless, societal shifts caused by the COVID-19
lockdowns – like widespread telecommuting, adoption of remote work policies, and the use of
virtual conference technology – may have a more sustained impact beyond the short-term
reduction of transportation usage. In a study published in September 2020, scientists estimate

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 Name: Zayeem Ahmed Siddique Roll No.: H2025088 Major Department: Statistics

that such behavioral changes developed during confinement may reduce 15% of all
transportation CO 2 emissions permanently.

Fig: Change in global daily fossil CO2 emissions, % during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Fig: Daily CO2 emissions by 6 sectors in 2019 and first half of 2020

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 Name: Zayeem Ahmed Siddique Roll No.: H2025088 Major Department: Statistics

Fig: Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on daily CO2 emissions globally and in 11 nations

Despite this, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was the highest ever recorded
in human history in May 2020. Energy and climate expert Constantine Samaras states that "a
pandemic is the worst possible way to reduce emissions" and that "technological, behavioural,
and structural change is the best and only way to reduce emissions". Tsinghua University's Zhu
Liu clarifies that "only when we would reduce our emissions even more than this for longer
would we be able to see the decline in concentrations in the atmosphere". The world's demand
for fossil fuels has decreased by almost 10% amid COVID-19 measures and reportedly many
energy economists believe it may not recover from the crisis.

5. Impact on climate
In a study published in August 2020, scientists estimated that global NOx emissions declined by
as much as 30% in April but were offset by ~20% reduction in global SO₂ emissions that
weakens the cooling effect and conclude that the direct effect of the response to the pandemic on
global warming will likely be negligible, with an estimated cooling of around 0.01 ±0.005 °C by
2030 compared to a baseline scenario but that indirect effects due to an economic recovery
tailored towards stimulating a green economy, such as by reducing fossil fuel investments, could
avoid future warming of 0.3 °C by 2050. The study indicates that systemic change in how
humanity powers and feeds itself is required for a substantial impact on global warming.
In October 2020 scientists reported, based on near-real-time activity data, an 'unprecedented'
abrupt 8.8% decrease in global CO₂ emissions in the first half of 2020 compared to the same

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 Name: Zayeem Ahmed Siddique Roll No.: H2025088 Major Department: Statistics

period in 2019, larger than during previous economic downturns and World War II. Authors note
that such decreases of human activities "cannot be the answer" and that structural and
transformational changes in human economic management and behaviour systems are needed.
In January 2021 scientists reported that reductions in air due to worldwide COVID-19
lockdowns in 2020 were larger than previously estimated and conclude that, because of that, the
impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the climate during that year was a slight warming of
Earth's climate of the year, instead of a slight cooling. They used climate models to identify
small impacts that could not be discerned with observations. The study's lead author noted that
aerosol emissions have major health ramifications and that they can't be part of a viable approach
for mitigating global warming.

6. Fossil fuel industry

A report by the London-based think tank Carbon Tracker concludes that the COVID-19
pandemic may have pushed the fossil fuel industry into "terminal decline" as demand for oil and
gas decreases while governments aim to accelerate the clean energy transition. It predicts that an
annual 2% decline in demand for fossil fuels could cause the future profits of oil, gas and coal
companies to collapse from an estimated $39tn to $14tn. However, according to Bloomberg New
Energy Finance more than half a trillion dollars worldwide are currently intended to be poured
into high-carbon industries. Preliminary disclosures from the Bank of England's Covid Corporate
Financing Facility indicate that billions of pounds of taxpayer support are intended to be
funneled to fossil fuel companies. According to Reclaim Finance the European Central Bank
intends to allocate as much as €220bn (£193bn) to fossil fuel industries. An assessment by Ernst
& Young finds that a stimulus program that focuses on renewable energy and climate-friendly
projects could create more than 100,000 direct jobs across Australia and estimates that every
$1m spent on renewable energy and exports creates 4.8 full-time jobs in renewable infrastructure
while $1m on fossil fuel projects would only create 1.7 full-time jobs.
In addition, also due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the fossil fuel and
petrochemical industry, natural gas prices have dropped so low that gas producers were burning
it off on-site (not being worth the cost to transport it to cracking facilities). Bans on single-use
consumer plastic (in China, the European Union, Canada, and many countries in Africa), and
bans on plastic bags (in several states in the USA) have also reduced demand for plastics
considerably. Many cracking facilities in the USA have been suspended. The petrochemical
industry has been trying to save itself by attempting to rapidly expand demand for plastic
products worldwide (i.e. through pushbacks on plastic bans and by increasing the number of
products wrapped in plastic in countries where plastic use is not already as widespread (i.e.
developing nations)).

7. Cycling
During the pandemic many people have started cycling and bike sales surged. Many cities set up
semi-permanent "pop-up bike lanes" to provide people who switch from public transit to bicycles
with more room. In Berlin proposals exist to make the initially reversible changes permanent.

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 Name: Zayeem Ahmed Siddique Roll No.: H2025088 Major Department: Statistics

8. Analyses and recommendations

Multiple organizations and organization-coalitions – such as think tanks, companies, business
organisations, political bodies and research institutes – have created unilateral analyses and
recommendations for investments and related measures for sustainability-oriented
socioeconomic recovery from the pandemic on global and national levels – including the
International Energy Agency, the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment and the
European Commission. The United Nations' Secretary General António Guterres recommended
six broad sustainability-related principles for shaping the recovery.
According to a report commissioned by the High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy
and published in July 2020, investment in four key ocean intervention areas could help aid
economic recovery and yield high returns on investment in terms of economic, environmental
and health benefits. According to Jackie Savitz, chief policy officer for America ocean
conservation nonprofit Oceana, strategies such as "setting science-based limits on fishing so that
stocks can recover, practicing selective fishing to protect endangered species and ensuring that
fishing gear doesn't destroy ocean habitats are all effective, cost-efficient ways to manage
sustainable fisheries".

Conclusion
Environmental change is a common liberties issue not just because its staggering effects
influence the satisfaction in basic freedoms, yet in addition since it's anything but a man-made
wonder which can be moderated by governments.
If we were to document the change in these climate indicators from the pre-industrial era, the
trends would of course be even starker. But even in a decade’s time, Earth has transformed.
It’s time for policy to change at a speed that is commensurate with the rate of changing planetary
vital signs. Let’s hope that in 2030, we will look back and call the past 10 years a decade of
climate action.

Reference
• https://www.oneyoungworld.com/blog/what-effect-covid-19-climate-change
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_change
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_the_environment
• https://www.wri.org/insights/6-ways-climate-changed-over-past-decade

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