HEAT RATE IMPROVEMENT OF COMBINED CYCLE POWER

PLANT (CCPP) USING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (A.I) AND

USING SOLAR RETROFIT
FINAL YEAR PROJECT EVALUATION REPORT

NED UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY

KARACHI

GROUP MEMBERS
SYED SUBHAN AHSEN EE-12090
SYED MUHAMMAD ZAIN EE-12075
M.NAUMAN MUSTAFA EE-12074
HASSAAN SIDDIQUI EE-12103

INTERNAL ADVISOR EXTERNAL ADVISOR

Mr. ABDULLAH MUNIR Mr. JAVED MATEEN
DGM PERFORMANCE
K-ELECTRIC.
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

We are thankful to Almighty Allah that our project’s primary objective is duly
accomplished. During the course of our project, we were under constant supervision of
our internal advisor Mr. Abdullah Munir who gave his precious time giving helpful
suggestions and reviewing our project. We used Sir Ali Baig’s expertise i.e. Artificial Neural
Networks to our full knowledge. He was a great motivation to us providing directions and
to explore further dimensions in our project. Finally, we owe a great thanks to our
external, Mr. Javed Mateen who provided us power plant data and also organized small
meetings and visits at Korangi Power Complex to eliminate our queries.
At last we are extremely content with the support of our kind parents and friends

i
 ABSTRACT

Heat Rate is one of the most important Key Performance Indicator (KPI) in power plant.
The variability is usually found in fuel flow at the expense of same gross power because of
the ambient conditions and also the power plant dynamics based on measured process
variables, which directly effects the heat rate. Thus it is noteworthy to control the plant
parameters within the operational constraints. The tool we’ve utilized in based on artificial
intelligence technique called ‘Artificial Neural Network’ which can found relationship
between obscure patterns reside in the dataset. By using ANN, a predictive model is
created in which diverse plant parameters were taken as inputs and fuel flow as output.
Variables reduction technique is applied so that crucial parameters can be isolated and
sensitivity is done to find the relative importance among the variables. Finally,
improvisation of heat rate is done by varying most important parameter as indicated by
sensitivity analysis and cost savings are calculated. This consolidated approach provides
measures to augment heat rate by varying the plant parameters correctly and thereby
heat rate can be controlled.
The second method related to solar integration with conventional power plant, is also
discussed along with its different schemes of operation.

ii
 LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1- 'Example of Piping and Instrumentation Diagram....................................Page 15

Figure 2.2- 'Artificial Neural Network Layers'……………………………………………………..…..Page 21

Figure 2.3- 'Artificial Neural Network Working'..........................................................Page 22

Figure 2.4- 'Project Flow Block Diagram'.....................................................................Page 23

Figure 3.1- 'Z-score normalization curve'....................................................................Page 29

Figure 3.2- 'Model Summary of Stepwise Regression Analysis'..................................Page 38

Figure 3.3- 'Regression Tree'.......................................................................................Page 42

Figure 3.4- 'Actual Data for Simulation'......................................................................Page 52

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 LIST OF TABLES
Table 2.1-‘Process Variable Description’………………………………………………………………..Page 7

Table 3.1- 'Total Variability Explained'.......................................................................Page 30

Table 3.2- 'Coefficients of Principal Components'.....................................................Page 31

Table 3.3- 'Ranking of Coefficients found in Table 3.2'..............................................Page 32

Table 3.4- 'Variables shortlisted from PCA method'..................................................Page 33

Table 3.5- 'Stepwise Regression'................................................................................Page 34

Table 3.6- 'Variables Shortlisted from Stepwise Regression'.....................................Page 39

Table 3.7- 'Model Summary of Classification and Regression trees

(CART)'........................................................................................................................Page 40

Table 3.8- 'Risk Analysis in CART method'..................................................................Page 43

Table 3.9- 'Variables Shortlisted from CART method'................................................Page 43

Table 3.10- 'Features Selection Summary'.................................................................Page 45

Table 3.11- 'Neural Network Results'.........................................................................Page 46

Table 3.12- 'Controllable Parameters'........................................................................Page 49

Table 3.12.1- 'Uncontrollable Parameters'.................................................................Page 49

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 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
ANN- Artificial Neural Network
DM- Data Mining
FS- Feature Selection
AI- Artificial Intelligence
CART- Classification and regression trees
P&ID- Piping and Instrumentation Diagram

v
 TABLE OF CONTENTS
Acknowledgement…………………………………………………………………………………………………...i
Abstract………………………………………………………………..………………………………………….………ii
List of figures…………………………………………………………………………………………………………...iii
List of tables…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….iv
List of Abbreviations…………………………………………………………………………………………….....v
1.1 Introduction...................................................…………………………................................ 2

1.2 Performance Paramters......................................................................................................2

1.3 Heat Rate of Power Plant....................................................................................................2

1.4 Importance of Heat Rate.....................................................................................................3

1.5 Determination of Heat Rate................................................................................................3

1.6 Proposed Strategy...............................................................................................................4

2.1 Background..................................................................................................................6

2.2 Working of CCPP..................................................................................................................6

2.2.1 Compression........................................................................................................6

2.2.2 Combustion..........................................................................................................6

2.2.3 Expansion.............................................................................................................6

2.2.4 HRSG....................................................................................................................7

2.3 Power Plant Parameters (Process Variables)..........................................................7

2.4 Objectives of Instrumentation and Control............................................................11

2.5 Piping and Instrumentation Diagram.....................................................................12

2.6 Artificial Intelligence..............................................................................................15

2.6.1 Development of A.I System…………………………………………………………….16

2.6.2 Algorithms in A.I……………………………………………………………………………..16

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 2.6.2.1 Case Based Reasoning…………………………………………………………17

2.6.2.2 Genetic Algorithm……………………………………………………………….17

2.6.2.3 Linear Regression………………………………………………………………..17

2.7 Applications of A.I in Power Plant.........................................................................17

2.8 Limitations of using Conventional Heat Rate Improvement Methods……………….19

2.9 Introduction to ANN and its Working.....................................................................20

2.10 Project Description...............................................................................................23

2.10.1 Data Preprocessing...........................................................................25

2.10.2 Variable Reduction...........................................................................24

2.10.2.1 Principal Component Analysis...............................................25

2.10.2.2 Stepwise Regression..............................................................25

2.10.2.3 Classification and Regression Trees.......................................25

2.10.3 Sensitivity Analysis...........................................................................25

3.1 Methodology...................................................................................................27

3.1.1 Plant Data Preparation…………………………………………………………………..27

3.1.2 Pre-Procession Data……………………………………………………………………….28

3.1.3 Variable Reduction…………………………………………………………………………29

3.1.3.1 Principal Component Analysis (PCA)……………………………………30

3.1.3.2 Stepwise Regression……………………………………………………………34

3.1.3.3 Classification and Regression Tree………………………………………39

3.1.4 Neural Network Implementation.......................................................45

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 3.1.5 Ranking Inputs....................................................................................47

3.1.5.1 Results of Sensitivity................................................................48

3.1.6 Simulating Neural Network................................................................49

3.1.7 Testing................................................................................................50

3.1.8 Calculations........................................................................................50

4.1 Solar Integration and

Conclusion…….......................................................................................................53

4.2 Discussion…...........................................................................................................53

4.3 Schemes of Solar Thermal Technology………………………………………………………………55

4.3.1 Solar Powered Stirling Engine…………………………………………………………55

4.3.2 Parabolic Trough Technology…………………………………………………………56

4.3.3 Fresnel Reflector Technology…………………………………………………………58

4.4 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………………………………………59

References…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..….60

viii
 MOTIVATION
CHAPTER 1
'INTRODUCTION' STRATEGY

KEY PERFORMANCE
INDICATOR (KPI)

1
1.1 INTRODUCTION

Pakistan has ample indigenous natural gas reserves as fuel but according to 2014-2015
economic survey report power demand and supply gap has been widening due to increase
in consumption in diverse areas. This research based project will ultimately work as an
incentive to power plant operators to control plant parameters to restrict excessive fuel
usage. We observed Korangi Power Complex’s data which showed that the fuel
requirements are rapidly changing at the expense of same power output consequently
changing heat rate thus fuel input has to be optimized for the economic and efficient
operation of the power plant.

1.2 PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS:

Power plant performance can be determined by following common performance factors:

 heat rate (energy efficiency)

 thermal efficiency
 load factor
 economic efficiency
 operational efficiency
 capacity factor

It is really important at first to get some familiarization of heat rate as it surrounds our
project.

1.3 HEAT RATE OF POWER PLANT:

It measures the amount of heat input in BTUs per hour for each kilowatt-hour of
electricity produced. The term “heat rate” is referred to the efficiency of energy
conversion, in terms of to obtain a unit of useful work, how much amount of energy must
be expanded. For a combustion process in a power plant fuel is the energy source, and
2
generator does the useful work by supplying electric power to the grid, the steam heat
supplied to an industrial customer or used for heating, or both. Because useful work is
typically defined as the electricity and steam that is delivered to the final customers,
engineers tend to work with the net plant heat rate (NPHR).

Heat rate is expressed by using the units BTU/KWh. In simple words we can say that it
indicates that how much BTU/hr. of energy is required to produce 1 KW of useful work.

1.4 IMPORTANCE OF HEAT RATE:

The major task of any type of power plant is to improve the heat rate and thermal
performance by any means necessary, because if heat rate is improved, the efficiency
automatically gets improved hence its good from utility point of view and consumer point
of view as well. As the electric power industry expands deregulation and competition, cost
containment and the ability to provide energy at the lowest possible cost become
important issues. The power producer must provide a lower-cost energy product than the
competition and yet still remain profitable in the long term. Fuel-cost reduction and
increased reliability and availability through efficiency improvement are key methods of
improving profitability. [1]

1.5 DETERMINATION OF HEAT RATE:

While determining plant heat rate, the energy input to the system is the chemical energy
in the fuel.

Chemical Energy of Fuel = Total Fuel Used (scf/hr.) x Higher Heating Value (HHV)(BTU/scf)

The power generated is measured in Kilo Watts which is simply the gross or net
generation in kW.

 If gross generation is used, then the resultant heat rate is the gross unit heat rate.
 If net generation is used, then the resultant heat rate is net unit heat rate.
3
Generally speaking,

𝑭𝑼𝑬𝑳 𝑩𝑼𝑹𝑵𝑬𝑫∗𝑯𝑬𝑨𝑻𝑰𝑵𝑮 𝑽𝑨𝑳𝑼𝑬 𝑶𝑭 𝑭𝑼𝑬𝑳

𝑵𝑬𝑻 𝑯𝑬𝑨𝑻 𝑹𝑨𝑻𝑬 = – EQU (1.1)
𝑷𝑶𝑾𝑬𝑹 𝑶𝑼𝑻𝑷𝑼𝑻

1.6 PROPOSED STRATEGY

Our main task was to improve the heat rate using artificial intelligence. Observing the
plant parameters, a total of 30 parameters were found. Some of them were eliminated
using inspection because they were almost constant. Now preprocessing of the data was
done using statistical tools i.e.

 Z-score normalization.
 Min max normalization
 Decimal normalization.

Now these models were taken into account and feature selection or variable reduction
methods were applied.

Feature selection method are as follows

 PCA
 Stepwise Regression
 Classification and regression trees

Neural network was selected as the appropriate model for training and thus parameters
obtained from feature selection were trained on it and the best feature selection model
was selected. Now to find the relative importance of the parameters obtained, ranking
was done using the change of mean square method. The highly ranked parameters were
noted down and further divided into controllable and uncontrollable parameters. Finally
cost savings were calculated.

4
 COMBINED CYCLE POWER PLANT

PROCESS VARIABLES

CHAPTER 2 INSTRUMENTATION AND CONTROL

'BACKGROUND'
ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK
(ANN)

BRIEF PROJECT DESCRIPTION

5
2.1 BACKGROUND

The sole purpose of converting conventional power plants to combine cycle power plant
(CCPP) is to increase the overall efficiency of the plant with low emission of harmful
gasses. Combine cycle power plants can produce a power output with approximately 50-
55 % efficiency. There are so many advantages of combine cycle power plant, some of
them are: like they use less fuel per kWh as compared to conventional power plant,
exhaust gasses can be re used hence combine cycle power plants are environment
friendly.

2.2 WORKING OF COMBINE CYCLE POWER PLANT:

2.2.1 COMPRESSION:

In air compression process, air is taken from the ambient and compressed into the stages
up to the pressure range of 15-20 bars. The acceleration of air through rotating blades and
the diffusion by the stator increases the pressure and reduces the volume of the air and
this compression also causes the temperature to increase between 700-730 degree
Celsius.

2.2.2 COMBUSTION:

Combustion chamber is an annular chamber where the fuel burns, fuel can be in liquid
form or in gaseous state. Burners are arranged on the outer part of the annular chamber
where the compressed air combines with the fuel and the resulting mixture of gases (high
temp) is then sent to the turbine.

2.2.3 EXPANSION:

This process is done inside the turbine, when the hot gases having high amount of energy
strike the blades of turbine so they start rotating, the shaft at which turbine blades are
attached is also connected to the generator, so when shaft rotates, generator also starts
producing electricity.

6
2.2.4 HEAT EXCHANGER/HEAT RECOVERY STEAM GENERATOR:

It is basically a constant pressure heat rejection process. The Heat Recovery Steam
Generator or HRSG consists of four important components: the economizer, evaporator,
super heater and water pre heater. There are basically two types of HRSG: vertical type
and horizontal type. In vertical type HRSG exhaust gases travel vertically over horizontal
tubes where as in horizontal HRSG, the exhaust gases travel horizontally over vertical
tubes.

In combine cycle power plants HRSG is used to generate the steam which can be fed to
the steam turbine or in other words we can say that we are utilizing waste exhaust gases
to produce steam.

2.3 POWER PLANT PARAMETERS (PROCESS VARIABLES)

A process variable, process value or process parameter is the current status of a process
under control. Measurement of process variables are important in controlling a process.
The process variable is a dynamic feature of the process which may change rapidly.
Accurate measurement of process variables is important for the maintenance of accuracy
in a process. There are four commonly measured variables which affect chemical and
physical process: pressure, temperature, level and flow.

Table 2.1

Variables/Parameters Measuring Points Types of Approxima

Sensors/Instruments te number
in the plant
1. Pressure a) Boiler Bourdon Tube, 375 – 400
b) Turbine Diaphragm, Bellows
c) Turbine
throttle
2. Temperature a) Steam at a) Thermocouple 700 – 750

7
 super heater b) Thermocouple
inlet and c) RTD
outlet d) RTD
b) Feed water e) Thermocouple
at f) Thermocouple
economizer g) RTD
inlet
c) Water at
condenser
inlet
d) Air
preheater
e) Flue gases
f) Bearing of
turbine &
generator
g) Feed pump,
condensate
pump
3. Flow a) High Orifice, Venturi, Flow 75 – 100
pressure Nozzle etc.
steam
b) Feed water
inlet
c) Condensate
4. Level a) Boiler drum Differential pressure 75 – 100
b) Condensate methods
tank

8
 c) Water line
5. Expansion a) Turbine Relative Displacement 6 – 8
shaft
b) Turbine
casing
6. Vibration a) Turbine & Mass spring with 30 – 50
generator potentiometric,
shafts & capacitive, eddy
bearing current, piezo electric
shells & optical types are
used.
7. Analysis a) Feed water Conductive cell with 8 – 12
i. Water at meter
economizer
inlet
b) Boiler inlet
c) Condenser
d) Condensate
pump
discharge
ii. Steam a) Saturated a) Conductive cell a) 4 –
steam with 6
b) Main line b) Conductive cell b) 4 –
steam with meter 6
c) Super c) Na analyzer c) 1 –
heater 2
steam
iii. Flue Gases a) O2 – a) Zirconia cell a) 2 –

9
 Economizer b) CO2 analyzer 4
to air heater c) CO analyzer b) 2 –
b) CO2 – Air d) SO2 analyzer 4
heater inlet e) NO analyzer c) 2 –
& outlet f) Optical 4
c) CO – Stack Method d) 1 –
d) SO2 – Stack 2
e) Nitrogen e) 1 –
oxide- Stack 2
f) Dust f) 2 –
concentratio 3
ns – Stack

In effect, there are innumerous parameters to be measured but table 1 highlights some of
the most important parameters that are required for analysis.

Control and Instrumentation department’s main task is to observe, control and

manipulate electrical and non-electrical quantities like temperature, pressure and
vibrations. This department further comprises of the following sections

 Manometry Section: In manometry section, transmitters are used for pressure

measurement of gases and liquids which can be mounted on a pipe or a wall. For
liquid or steam measurement transmitters is mounted below main process piping
and for gas measurement transmitter is placed above pipe. Manometers are used
which corresponds to a difference in pressure across the two limbs. Bourdon
Pressure Gauges comes in two types; spiral type for low pressure measurement
and helical type for high pressure measurement.
 Protection and Interlocking Section: Interlocking is a form of connection
connecting two or more equipment together so that if one fails other is active and

10
 to increase reliability. For the protection of equipment, tripping is provided
sequentially through relays, fuses and circuit breakers.
 Automation Section: It deals with automating the existing system and feeding
routes. The control systems are provided with a mere 24V voltage so that control
signals can be generated.
 Electronics Section: It usually looks after the various equipment’s calibration and
maintenance.
 Operation & Maintenance Section: Here electrical equipment including motors and
switchgears are looked after. Pollution control systems are maintained to comply
with the standards and to limit pollution. Devices include electrostatic
precipitators (collects ash after combustion of coal and discharges to ash ponds in
slurry form), flue gas stacks (for wide dispersion of the harmful gases) and
neutralization pits (for pH correction of the effluents before discharge)

2.4 OBJECTIVES OF INSTRUMENTATION AND CONTROL:

Controlling the power plant parameters is very critical hence to measure them plays an
important part too with accuracy and precision both to eradicate any errors in analysis.
There are basically four objectives of power plant instrumentation and control that must
be followed

 Efficient operation of the plant

 Economic operation of the plant
 Safe operation of the plant
 Pollution control

A plant instrumentation system needs to be very accurate and reliable with minimum
possible delays and should have the capacity to be operated manually when an overall
control system fails. Instrumentation system comprises of

 Measurement

11
  Control
 Operation
 Monitoring
 Protection

2.5 PIPING AND INSTRUMENTATION DIAGRAM:

P&ID stands for Process and Instrumentation Diagram or Drawing. A piping and
instrumentation diagram (P&ID) is probably the most important drawing in a power
and/or process plant, and is of immense importance to all the disciplines involved:
mechanical (for equipment and details), piping (piping detail), electrical (to list motors and
their rating), civil and structural (for structural design and special equipment, for example,
for foundation), and instrumentation. It is the starting point of all subsequent designs.

P&IDs are important for

 Design Review and Feedback: They provide design and operating intent which
allows to give feedback.
 Operation: It give understanding of process and control operations.
 Maintenance: It has got tag numbers, valves and control options for maintenance.

P&IDs have certain limitations i.e. they are not drawn to scale and geometrically accurate.

Some of the P&ID symbols …

Pipe

Valve

One-way valve

Solenoid valve (on/off)

12
 Analog valve

Pump

or

Signal Types in P&IDs …

Instrument supply or connection to process

Pneumatic signal

Electric signal

Software link or communication link

Function symbols in P&IDs …

Field

Control panel

DCS

13
 PLC

Instrument Identification …

First letter defines the measured variables such as Analysis (A), Flow (F), Temperature (T) etc. with
succeeding letter defining functions such as indicator (I), Record (R), Transmit (T) etc. in this case flow
indictor and controller.

Tag name of the corresponding

variable here: FIC1528

Valve

14
Figure 2.1

Example P&ID: The example above (Figure 2.1) indicates FT101 represents a field-
mounted flow transmitter via dotted line which an electrical signal to flow indicating
controller FC101 in a control/display device. A square root of the input signal is applied at
FC101. The output of FC101 is an electrical signal to TY101. The output from TY101 is a
pneumatic signal as indicated by line with double dashed marks making TY101 an input.
TT101 and TIC101 are similar to FT101 and FIC101 but are measuring, indicating and
controlling temperature. TIC101’s output is connected via software link or communication
link to the set point (SP) of FIC101 to form a cascade control strategy.

2.6 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE:

Artificial intelligence (A.I) is a tool which equips a machine with the ability to learn and
adapt to different conditions while accomplishing given tasks. It can also be thought as a
machine’s potential to imitate the behavior of a human brain. The human brain serves as a
role model for the development of an A.I system just as bird serves a role model for
aeronautics, capabilities of the brain like recognition, problem solving, learning etc. if
imparted to the machine in any way would make the machine an intelligent machine. A.I
today is not only stunted to character recognition but intelligent machines can compete
with human opponent in a game of chess or A.I system can navigate a self-driving car or a

15
drone to perform specific actions. Certain targets of A.I machines can be reasoning,
learning, planning, knowledge database, communication, motion, and creativity.

2.6.1 DEVELOPMENT OF A.I SYSTEMS:

For the development of A.I system mainly used methods are mathematical modeling,
probabilistic approaches, logical methods and computational intelligence and knowledge
based systems. Mathematical modeling is commonly used technique for simpler A.I
applications where as probabilistic or statistical approach is considered for a more
complex system where there is uncertainty associated with the behavior of system.
Computational intelligence deals with the soft computing where logics other than 1 and 0
exist, e.g. fuzzy logic assign a certain degree between 0 and 1 to elements or events which
shows that some events are partially occurring, probabilistic reasoning is also a part of soft
computation. Knowledge based system is like an expert system which has all the
knowledge about a specific field.

2.6.2 ALGORITHMS IN A.I:

The most commonly used algorithms in A.I and machine learning are fuzzy logic, case
based reasoning, support vector machine, genetic algorithm, neural networks, belief
network, linear regression, dimensionality reduction algorithms, Naive Bayes algorithm,
decision tree, random forest. Some basic concepts of working of few of these algorithms
are: [2]

2.6.2.1 CASE BASED REASONING:

This algorithm uses similar previous examples stored in its memory as a starting line in
solving problem. It retrieves the example from its data base which matches the current
problem, reuse the example’s solution in creating a solution to fit for current problem
then it revises (test) the new solution if it meets the minimum criteria then CBR proceeds

16
to next step which is store the solution along with problem for future use, else it modifies
the solution and retests it.

2.6.2.2 GENETIC ALGORITHM:

In genetic algorithm an arbitrary values of the target variable (to be predicted) is set then
it is compared with the actual value of target variable and the arbitrary values near to the
target value is retained, these values are then used to generate another set of values for
target variable which would be closer to the actual value as compared to the previous
arbitrary values. This process is repeated until predicted value of target variable obtains
desired accuracy or maximum number iterations are reached.

2.6.2.3 LINEAR REGRESSION:

There are two types of variable in linear regression independent and dependent, the data
of both the variables are plotted and a line of best is drawn such that the value of error
between the best fit line and data points is minimum, now this line is used to predict value
of dependent variable based upon the value of independent variable.

2.7 APPLICATIONS OF A.I IN POWER PLANT:

Power Plant are the initial phase of generation of electricity, electricity used to power our
houses, industries, markets, hospitals, factories is forged through complex and
complicated processes occurring at power plant. Numerous delicate and fragile processes
occur simultaneously at power station for its successful running, the quality and efficiency
of these individual processes determine the overall efficiency, performance and stability
of power plant. Since these processes are highly complex involving dozens of parameter
and the control of these parameters within prescribed range makes efficient operation
possible, in addition due to the nonlinear nature of most of the processes conventional
methods of optimization require a lot of calculations making it nearly impossible, here the
idea of A.I and computational intelligence can be considered safe and reliable alternatives.
Due the immense development in the field of computer science, modern computers can

17
sustain huge amount of calculations and arrive at acceptable result in comparatively quite
less time as compared to traditional methods.

Several tools of A.I are being used in power system to increase productivity, reduce cost
and provide stable electrical networks. Soft sensing is a method used to determine the
efficiency and performance of instruments used in a power plant. The instrumentation
used in the power plant provide very critical readings required to execute volatile
decisions regarding the operation of the plant. Faulty instruments or biased readings
would lead to inappropriate decisions causing havoc in the operation of power plant, in
addition owing to complicated instrumentation needs few plant parameter’s
measurement is not viable, practically infeasible or is not done to reduce capital and
maintenance costs. Moreover, there are certain instruments enduring constant wear and
tear e.g. the flow meter measuring the flow rate of sea water (since the sea water is highly
corrosive causing damage to the flow meter after certain time) thus periodic replacement
is required of these instruments. Similarly the operations of a nuclear power plant is highly
critical and in case of any instrument failure national catastrophe may result, also due the
high level of radiations in the reactor instrumentation failure is a constant risk. Most
pressurized water reactors use Venturi flow meters to measure the feed water flow rate.
However, because of accumulated particles of corrosion fouling occur, resulting into ceiled
differential pressure across the flow meter, leading to an exaggerated flow rate. The
replacement of these instruments or their recalibration entails heavy expenses. Upon
these problems a tool of A.I Neural Network presents a viable solution. Firstly the sensors
or the instruments at higher chances of failure or indicating critical parameters are
identified, then the parameters/other instruments readings which may have an effect on
critical parameter is identified. Many previous readings of the critical parameter is fed into
Neural Network as output where as other parameters fed as input. Now the Neural
network learns the relation between all the parameters and it can predict the value of
critical parameter corresponding to the values of other parameter thus providing
robustness to the instrumentation system and any rouge value of the critical parameter

18
resulting from instrumentation failure would contradict the predicted value by the neural
network alerting the plant operators.

Electrical load forecasting is very essential in planning for electricity resource

management. It can predict the future demand and manage the stored electricity for
future usage. The electricity generation cost also can be minimized as well as the
electricity tariff can be controlled. Load forecasting can be categorized into three
categories which are short term, medium term and long term. The duration for prediction
of short term load forecasting usually ranging between a week and an hour. Medium term
load forecasting means the load forecasting usually from a week to a year helping to plan
supply of fuel and maintenance. Long term load forecasting means the load forecasting is
usually more than a year. This type of load forecasting is useful for planning operations.
We know, power load is a stochastic, time-variant nonlinear system, thus neural network
equipped with genetic algorithms produces acceptable results by the virtue of its non-
linear functionality whereas the traditional techniques for near future forecasting using
linear approximations propose biased results. [3]

2.8 LIMITATIONS OF USING CONVENTIONAL HEAT RATE

IMPROVEMENT METHODS:

The processes taking place at a power plant is of utmost complexity. There are several
components of power plant like boiler, condenser etc. These components are based on
such principle that they introduce huge amount of non-linearity in the system.
Furthermore the number of independent variables governing the output is so huge that it
becomes excessively hectic to compute the optimized heat rate or the dependent
variable. Also the variables considered to be independent have a certain degree of
correlation with the other independent variable thus upon change of one variable not only
heat rate is affected but also other independent variables change their value. Even though
plant operators are provided with many correctional curves but processing such huge

19
number of variables that have complex nonlinear relationship is beyond the processing
capability of human brain.

Statistical tools as predictive model can be considered as a viable option since the data
involved is colossal and the relationship between independent and dependent variable are
quite complicated. Therefore a regression model was developed called stepwise
regression, skillfully incorporating forward selection and backward elimination. Finally by
an automatic procedure, influential parameters were filtered out under this scheme. The
final relation which regression model developed contradicted with the basic theory of
operations occurring in power plant.

2.9 INTRODUCTION TO ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK (ANN) AND

ITS WORKING:

An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is a data handling ideal model that is enlivened by the
way natural anxious frameworks, for example the mind, process data. The key component
of this ideal model is the novel structure of the data preparing framework. It is made out
of a substantial number of greatly interconnected preparing components (neurons)
working in union to take care of particular issues, moreover these interconnections have a
numerical value associated to them called weights. An ANN is designed for a particular
requisition, for example design recognition or information grouping, through a studying
process. Studying in biotic frameworks includes changes in accordance with the synaptic
associations that exist between the neurons. The response is that a solitary neuron is
equipped for performing nothing.Subsequently, when these neurons are interconnected
with one another to structure a Neural Network Architecture, then they might be utilized
to expedite us in numerous requisitions, for example: Machine Control, Robot control,
Financial, scientific, engineering, and estimating, Image and Pattern Recognition and
numerous more.

20
 Inputs

Outpu
t

Figure 2.2

The first layer is called input neurons, the outermost neurons are called output neurons
and the neurons residing in between them are called hidden neurons. At the neural level
with variation in synaptic weights, addition and destruction of synapses, the network
adapts to the data. Gathered values from the training derive network to an acceptable
stage with insignificant errors in prediction. The development rules of Hebb are:

• Synaptic strength grows based on synchronous activation;

• Synaptic strength weakens via asynchronous activation.

Energy minimization principles suits mentioned rules as energy is required to posses

certain synaptic strength, it ought to be present at mandatory synapses otherwise not.
The internal processing occurring in a neuron can be seen in figure below

21
Figure 2.3

ANN is mostly used as a predictive modeling tools that is, ANN is used to learn the
relationship between the independent and dependent variable, once it has adapted to this
relationship ANN can be used to predict values of the dependent variable for a number of
different values of the different independent variables. But initially ANN must be trained
(in order to recognize the input output relationship) which requires a lot of data that is
values of input and corresponding output variables. The input values are applied to the
input neuron and random value of weight (synaptic strength) are assigned to all the
interconnections throughout the network. The hidden layer receives values from all the
preceding layers multiplied by their weights and all the products are added together for
processing by the activation function. Types of activation functions:

• Threshold functions.
• Signum functions.
• Sigmoid functions.
• Tangential hyperbolic functions.

The result of activation function is passed on to the next layer of neurons, this process is
repeated until the final output layer is reached and it gives the predicted value of output
variable. The predicted value is then compared with the actual corresponding output

22
variable value and an error is calculated. This error is reduced by the process of
backpropagation. The error is back propagated to the preceding layers as a product of
respective neuron’s weight, the neurons with higher weight contributes more towards the
error thus their weight is adjusted to reduce the error. This process is repeated for all the
values of data, finally ANN is said to be trained when error converges to a constant value.
Now ANN can be used for prediction for different values of input variables.

2.10 PROJECT DESCRIPTION:

Project is based on many levels each having its own significance starting from plant data
preparation and ending up with manipulating the parameters.

Figure 2.4

Here we can see from the block diagram, the various steps that led to the successful
completion of the project. Some prior details must be known before enunciating the
explanation of our research. The next headings are dedicated for this.

23
2.10.1 DATA PRE-PROCESSING:

Data preprocessing is the most fundamental step involved in data mining procedure.
Whenever the data is acquired, it is not 100% fit to be used directly i.e. it contains noise or
somehow contribute towards irregularity of the data. So, if this raw data is directly used in
mining process, it can cause misinterpretations, leading towards biased results. Due to this
irrelevancy present in data, the fruitful knowledge present in the data can be hidden, thus
becomes difficult to extract. Moreover, analyzing unprocessed data takes much higher
time and augmented processing times as well. It is therefore essential to preprocess the
data, which can be done either by normalizing it, transforming it or by applying some
feature selection techniques. After having all this done, the data is ready to be used, giving
transparent results in much less time and computations.
The methods we’ve adopted here is normalization and variable reduction [4].

2.10.2 VARIABLE REDUCTION:

The purpose of variable reduction technique is to hold the important variables, or the
one’s on which neural network training is effective and discard the others to avoid
redundancy in dataset. The data mining process becomes less exhaustive when there are
lesser inputs, giving accurate results in much lesser time which ae obviously easier to
comprehend. The main reasons to perform this process are
• Increased efficiency
• Reducing complexity of the model present
• Achieving same accuracy by lesser inputs
• Removal of redundant variables
• Less cost. [4]

24
2.10.2.1 PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS:
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a dimensionality reduction approach which tries to
reduce the dimension of input correlated variables, by transforming them into new set of
variables known as principal components and which are not interrelated. PCA methods
accomplishes this by keeping maximum variability from the data set. The initial
components holds greater variability [5].

2.10.2.2 STEPWISE REGRESSION:

Stepwise regression is addition of both forward and backward selection techniques. In this
process, variables are both added and removed, based on changes occurred in error
within specified tolerance range. So, this process becomes more reliable if both method
separately are considered. To avoid procedure getting into the infinite loop, the threshold
probability for adding parameters must be less than that of removing one’s [6].

2.10.2.3 CLASSIFICATION AND REGRESSION TREES:

Classification and regression trees are extensively used in data mining process.
Classification trees usually takes unordered values and determines error by
‘misclassification cost’ while regression trees are used for fitting models, and provides
error by taking difference between observed and predicted results. [7]

2.10.3 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS:

We’ve gathered all the inputs which have greater importance, now they must be ranked
under sensitivity analysis. The method used is called Change of mean square method
(COM). According to the COM method, firstly all the input parameter were used for neural
network training and mse is noted then in order to identify the importance of each
parameter neural network is retrained by removing one parameter at a time, the
alteration in mse indicates the relative importance of that parameter. If mse increased
drastically the parameter removed holds critical importance, whereas slight variations in
mse undermine the importance of respective parameter [8].

25
 PROJECT
IMPLEMENTATION
CHAPTER 3
'METHDOLOGY OBSERVATIONS
AND
FINDINGS'
CALCULATIONS

26
3.1 METHODOLOGY:

This is the core part of the project which describes our proposed strategy. Our project is
research based, so all the steps involved brings meaningful information.

Referring to the block diagram (Figure 2.3), the results obtained from each step can be
explained as follows:

3.1.1 PLANT DATA PREPARATION:

The predictive model requires data, so first step is to prepare power plant actual data.
After having several meetings with the plant operator, they gave us 30 parameters. The
data was extracted by I&C department. The data was divided as:

Gas Turbine Parameters = 12

Stream Turbine Parameters = 11

HRSG Parameters = 7

Listed below,

 Active Power G.T

 PF
 LP Shaft Speed
 Compressor Inlet Air Temperature (T2)
 Compressor Inlet Pressure (P0)
 Inlet Duct Pressure Loss
 Fuel Lower Heating Value
 Water Injection Flow (lbs/hr)
 Exhaust Duct Loss
 Fuel Flow
 Compressor Discharge Pressure (CDP)
 Compressor Pressure Ratio

27
  STG Speed
 Active Power S.T
 HP Steam Pressure
 HP Steam Temperature
 HP Steam Flow
 LP Steam Pressure
 LP Steam Temperature
 LP Steam Flow
 Vacuum (abs)
 Condenser Cooling Water Flow
 Sea Water Temperature
 HRSG Outlet Temperature
 GT -03 Exhaust
 GT -04 Exhaust
 HRSG Exhaust
 HP DRUM CBD
 LP DRUM CBD
 Condensate Flow

3.1.2 PRE-PROCESSING DATA:

Data pre-processing is the vital part of the project as it will increase the training capability.
The raw or unprocessed data may contain many discrepancies or inconsistencies. Pre-
processed data eases DM process.

Thus following methods were adopted:

 Z-score normalization
 Min-Max normalization
 Decimal normalization.

28
In Z-score normalization, the data is converted in to a bell-shaped curve having mean ‘0’
and standard deviation of ‘1’.

Figure 3.1

In min max normalization, the data is convert over the range of 1 and -1.

In decimal normalization, only decimal point is shifted. It simply means to multiply or

divide the attributes by power of 10.

A pre analysis was carried out in order to assess the performance of all these methods.
The least actual error was obtained by decimal normalization.

3.1.3 VARIABLE REDUCTION:

Feature selection is the main part of the project as it involves a lot of study. The aim of this
part is to reduce the variables without having significant reduction in accuracy. It is
noticed in observations that some variables often travel in the same dimension because
more than one variable accounts for the overall system behaviour. Thus it is essential to
analyse such inputs only rather than whole lot. Moreover, when there are less number of
attributes, the training rate also increases. The users find the dataset easier to
comprehend when less but meaningful variables are present. It also helps to combat the
‘overfitting’ problem.

29
Three methods are use, which were explained previously in chapter 2.

1) Principal Component Analysis (PCA)

2) Stepwise Regression

3) Classification and Regression Tress (CART)

3.1.3.1 PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS (PCA):

The first step is to find the minimum number of components which are able to explain
maximum variability in the dataset. The first component generated always have highest
variability, which tends to fall in the next components. We can see in table 3.1 that if we
select starting five components, they explain approximately 96% of variability, which is
obviously better.

Total Variability Explained:

Table 3.1

71.70
10.95
7.25
3.79
2.23
1.74
1.14
0.28
0.27
0.25
0.12
0.11
0.09

30
 0.04
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00

Coefficients of Principal Components:

This method is basically used for feature transformation, but in this paper we’ve used it as
feature selection by analysing the coefficients of principal components. PCA assumes that
the components are the linear combination of the variables present in the actual dataset,
thus if coefficient of any variable has significant value, it will contribute more to the
component and component itself explains greatly variability. Table 3.2 elucidates the
coefficients of principal components.

Table 3.2

Active Power G.T 0.00028045 0.160805 0.040841 0.035915 0.008074

LP Shaft Speed 0.00090513 0.004677 0.002265 0.005167 0.000146
Compressor Inlet Air
Temperature (T2) 0.13687966 0.955645 0.083182 0.145961 0.044292
Water Injection Flow (lbs. /hr.) 0.03425135 0.04525 0.037904 0.076094 0.042038
Compressor Discharge
Pressure (CDP) 0.00520677 0.077501 0.012181 0.010055 0.000704
STG Speed 0.05256882 0.077514 0.410187 0.113369 0.070926
Active Power S.T 0.26056003 0.0446 0.017495 0.023694 0.026219
HP Steam Pressure 0.03418674 0.046999 0.317633 0.028388 0.029368
HP Steam Temperature 0.01028443 0.013975 0.08677 0.042839 0.015121

31
HP Steam Flow 0.91319993 0.114939 0.081309 0.03224 0.07294
LP Steam Temperature 0.00589027 0.011579 0.067171 0.037132 0.013392
LP Steam Flow 0.2347115 0.056132 0.028633 0.026723 0.028348
Vacuum (abs) 0.02050683 0.107088 0.736739 0.240499 0.088846
Condenser Cooling Water Flow 0.07247873 0.10179 0.354393 0.882053 0.104901
Sea Water Temperature 0.01552084 0.062237 0.152835 0.308146 0.003684
HRSG Outlet Temperature 0.0143779 0.006518 0.005934 0.000871 0.024826
GT -03 Exhaust 0.01415232 0.005152 0.092124 0.109233 0.515703
GT -04 Exhaust 0.0641257 0.008127 0.024346 0.095769 0.787566
HRSG Exhaust 0.01472329 0.005162 0.006702 0.004913 0.075068
Condensate Flow 0.09178506 0.006884 0.002018 0.018972 0.267807

Extracting Important Variables:

Here we can see that PCA method is used for feature transformation, not feature
selection. To extract features, what we’ve done is simply analysed the coefficients. The
coefficients were ranked, and those which have higher (top 5) rank in top three
components among top five were selected. Top three components also explains 90%
variability.

Table 3.3

Active Power
20 2 11 11 17
LP Shaft Speed 19 20 19 18 20
Compressor Inlet Air Temperature (T2) 4 1 8 4 9
Water Injection Flow (lbs. /hr.) 9 11 12 8 10
Compressor Discharge Pressure (CDP) 18 7 16 17 19
STG Speed 8 6 2 5 8
Active Power 2 12 15 15 13

32
HP Steam Pressure 10 10 4 13 11
HP Steam Temperature 16 13 7 9 15
HP Steam Flow 1 3 9 12 7
LP Steam Temperature 17 14 10 10 16
LP Steam Flow 3 9 13 14 12
Vacuum (abs) 11 4 1 3 5
Condenser Cooling Water Flow 6 5 3 1 4
Sea Water Temperature 12 8 5 2 18
HRSG Outlet Temperature 14 17 18 20 14
GT -03 Exhaust 15 19 6 6 2
GT -04 Exhaust 7 15 14 7 1
HRSG Exhaust 13 18 17 19 6
Condensate Flow 5 16 20 16 3

Thus the corresponding variables of the highlighted coeffs were selected, which are:

Table 3.4

Active Power G.T

Compressor Inlet Air Temperature (T2)

STG Speed
Active Power S.T
HP Steam Pressure
HP Steam Flow
LP Steam Flow
Vacuum (abs)
Condenser Cooling Water Flow
Sea Water Temperature
Condensate Flow

33
3.1.3.2 STEPWISE REGRESSION:

Regression is used to find the relationship between input and output variables, indicated
by the value of R-squared which means fitting of the data to regression line. It involves
both forward selection and backward elimination process.

Following are the parameters in order of their importance

Table 3.5

Variables Entered/Removeda

Model Variables Entered Variables Removed Method

1 Active Power . Stepwise (Criteria:

Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

2 Sea Water Temperature . Stepwise (Criteria:

Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

3 Compressor Inlet Air . Stepwise (Criteria:

Temperature (T2) Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

4 Water Injection Flow (lbs. . Stepwise (Criteria:

/hr.) Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

34
5 Condenser Cooling Water . Stepwise (Criteria:
Flow Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

6 Condensate Flow . Stepwise (Criteria:

Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

7 LP Shaft Speed . Stepwise (Criteria:

Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

8 GT -04 Exhaust . Stepwise (Criteria:

Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

9 GT -03 Exhaust . Stepwise (Criteria:

Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

10 Vacuum (abs) . Stepwise (Criteria:

Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

35
11 HP Steam Pressure . Stepwise (Criteria:
Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

12 HP Steam Temperature . Stepwise (Criteria:

Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

13 LP Steam Flow . Stepwise (Criteria:

Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

14 LP Steam Temperature . Stepwise (Criteria:

Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

15 HP Steam Flow . Stepwise (Criteria:

Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

16 HRSG Exhaust . Stepwise (Criteria:

Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

36
17 . Condensate Flow Stepwise (Criteria:
Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

18 Compressor Discharge . Stepwise (Criteria:

Pressure (CDP) Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

19 Active Power . Stepwise (Criteria:

Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

20 HRSG Outlet . Stepwise (Criteria:

Temperature Probability-of-F-to-enter
<= .050, Probability-of-F-
to-remove >= .100).

a. Dependent Variable: Fuel Flow

37
 MODEL SUMMARY:

Figure 3.2

All inputs can capture 78.5% variability in the dataset. Since we’ve to select some inputs,
we compromise last 10 models and selects top 10 only which also have R-squared value of
76.8%.

38
Top 10 parameters were selected which were:

Table 3.6

Active Power G.T

Sea Water Temperature
Compressor Inlet Air Temperature (T2)

Water Injection Flow (lbs. /hr.)

Condenser Cooling Water Flow

Condensate Flow
LP Shaft Speed
GT -04 Exhaust
GT -03 Exhaust
Vacuum (abs)

3.1.3.3 CLASSIFICATION AND REGRESSION TREES:

This regression based method is extensively being used by the researchers for feature
identification. This task is accomplished by using IBM SPSS Statistics software. This method
helps to identify groups and the relations present among them. Though classification is
not a priority in our case, but we can use results from IBM SPSS generated report which
will help us to identify crucial variables which makes up the decision tree. A very useful
information that the software provides is the normalized importance of each variable, as
shown in table 3.7

39
 Model Summary:

Table 3.7

Model Summary
Growing Method CRT
Dependent Variable Fuel Flow
Active Power, LP Shaft Speed, Compressor
Inlet Air Temperature (T2), Water Injection
Flow (lbs./hr.), Compressor Discharge
Pressure (CDP), STG Speed, Active Power, HP
Steam Pressure, HP Steam Temperature, HP
Independent Variables Steam Flow, LP Steam Temperature, LP
Steam Flow, Vacuum (abs), Condenser
Specifications Cooling Water Flow , Sea Water
Temperature, HRSG Outlet Temperature, GT
-03 Exhaust, GT -04 Exhaust, HRSG Exhaust,
Condensate Flow
Validation None
Maximum Tree Depth 5
Minimum Cases in Parent
100
Node
Minimum Cases in Child
50
Node

40
 Active Power, Compressor Discharge
Pressure (CDP), GT -03 Exhaust, Compressor
Inlet Air Temperature (T2), Water Injection
Flow (lbs./hr.), HP Steam Flow, Active
Power, LP Steam Flow, HP Steam
Independent Variables
Temperature, Sea Water Temperature,
Included
Condensate Flow, Condenser Cooling Water
Results Flow , HP Steam Pressure, GT -04 Exhaust,
HRSG Outlet Temperature, HRSG Exhaust,
Vacuum (abs), LP Shaft Speed, STG Speed, LP
Steam Temperature
Number of Nodes 7
Number of Terminal
4
Nodes
Depth 3

41
 REGRESSION TREE

Figure 3.3

42
 Risk Analysis:

Table 3.8

Risk

Estimate Std. Error

.001 .000

Growing Method: CRT

Dependent Variable: Fuel Flow

Here estimate means that only 0.1% of the data was wrongly predicted, which is obviously
better.

Important Variables Selection:

Table 3.9

Independent Variable Importance

Independent Variable Importance Normalized Importance

Active Power .002 100.0%

Compressor Inlet Air Temperature (T2) .001 54.3%

Compressor Discharge Pressure (CDP) .001 50.3%

Water Injection Flow (lbs. /hr.) .001 49.7%

HP Steam Flow .001 25.7%

Active Power .001 22.4%

LP Steam Flow .001 22.2%

GT -03 Exhaust .001 21.4%

43
 Sea Water Temperature .000 14.2%

Condenser Cooling Water Flow .000 13.9%

Condensate Flow .000 7.7%

HRSG Outlet Temperature .000 7.1%

HRSG Exhaust .000 6.7%

HP Steam Pressure .000 5.9%

HP Steam Temperature .000 5.8%

LP Steam Temperature .000 5.3%

Vacuum (abs) 9.768E-5 4.0%

GT -04 Exhaust 8.503E-5 3.5%

LP Shaft Speed 5.153E-5 2.1%

STG Speed 4.718E-5 1.9%

Growing Method: CRT

Dependent Variable: Fuel Flow

44
 Feature Selection Summary:

Table 3.10

STEPWISE REGRESSION CRT PCA

Active Power Active Power Active Power G.T
Sea Water Temperature Compressor Inlet Air Compressor Inlet Air
Temperature (T2) Temperature (T2)
Compressor Inlet Air Compressor STG Speed
Temperature (T2) Discharge Pressure
(CDP)
Water Injection Flow (lbs. Water Injection Flow Active Power S.t
/hr.) (lbs. /hr.)
Condenser Cooling Water HP Steam Flow HP Steam Pressure
Flow
Condensate Flow LP Steam Flow HP Steam Flow
LP Shaft Speed Active Power LP Steam Flow
GT -04 Exhaust GT -03 Exhaust Vacuum (abs)
GT -03 Exhaust Condenser Cooling Condenser Cooling Water Flow
Water Flow
Vacuum (abs) Sea Water Sea Water Temperature
Temperature
Condensate Flow

3.1.4 NEURAL NETWORK IMPLEMENTATION:

After having preprocessed data and reduction in variables, we will test the performance of
both the models used in variable reduction i.e. PCA and CRT. Levenberg–Marquardt
training algorithm was chosen and data was divided as 70% training and remaining 30%
was split equally among testing and validation. The table compares the results of both the
models with the one having all the variables present. The model having overall

45
performance closest or having least mean squared error (mse) to that when all the inputs
are used, will be selected. Table 3.11 provides all the information about performance of
models used.

RESULTS:

Table 3.11

All 20 inputs
M.S.E
Train 4.51E-04 R 94.14%
Performance
Test Performance 5.51E-04
Val. Performance 4.63E-04
Avg. Performance 4.68E-04
PCA inputs
Train 7.79E-04 R 90.03%
Performance
Test Performance 8.16E-04
Val. Performance 7.41E-04
Avg. Performance 7.79E-04

Stepwise Regression
Train 7.25E-04 R 90.64%
Performance
Test Performance 7.77E-04
Val. Performance 7.32E-04
Avg. Performance 7.34E-04
CRT

46
Train 5.87E-04 R 92.44%
Performance
Test Performance 6.22E-04
Val. Performance 6.29E-04
Avg. Performance 5.99E-04
CRT + Vacuum(abs)-SUB Model
Train 4.70E-04 R 93.88%
Performance
Test Performance 5.29E-04
Val. Performance 5.27E-04
Avg. Performance 4.88E-04

CRT models provides better result as compared to PCA. Ten inputs almost providing the
same results as if all were selected, thus a better model is achieved in which output is
dependent on lesser inputs though providing same accuracy. If we observe closely, the
variable ‘Vacuum’ was in PCA, and also ranks just below 10 in CRT model. If this parameter
is added in our existing model, it becomes more accurate. Let this model be called ‘SUB
model’ which contains CRT inputs plus one extra added variable. This SUB model is
achieving nearly the same performance when all variables are selected. Thus we’ve
managed to reduce the variables from 20 to 11 after apply rigorous reduction techniques.
The mse of neural network changes every time whenever the training is restarted,
because of different initial conditions. In order to create homogeneity in all the models,
we’ve assigned an initial value of ‘1’ so that its performance doesn’t vary.

3.1.5 RANKING INPUTS:

We’ve gathered all the inputs which have greater importance, now they must be ranked
according to their importance. So for this, COM method is used.

47
 CODE:

nett = feedforwardnet(10);
nett.divideFcn = '';
nett.trainParam.epochs = 100;
nett.trainParam.max_fail = 6;
nett.trainParam.min_grad = 0.000000000000001;
nett.divideFcn = 'dividerand';
nett.divideMode = 'sample';
nett.divideParam.trainRatio = 100/100;

RandStream.setDefaultStream(RandStream('mt19937ar','seed',1))
;

a=0;x=1;
[net,tr,Y,E] = train(nett,I',T');
perf(x) = mse(E);
for i=1:11
a=a+1;
x=x+1;
I(:,a) = [];
[net,tr,Y,E] = train(nett,I',T');
perf(x) = mse(E);
I=I1;
end

3.1.5.1 RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY:

Dividing parameters into two categories:

Controllable: which can be controlled directly by the plant operator

Uncontrollable: which cannot be controlled directly by the plant operator

48
 Table 3.12

Controllable Parameter
Vacuum (abs)
Water Injection Flow (lbs/hr.)
Compressor Discharge Pressure (CDP)

Table 3.12.1

Uncontrollable Parameter
Compressor Inlet Air Temperature
Sea Water Temperature

3.1.6 SIMULATING NEURAL NETWORK:

Sea
Active Compressor Inlet Water Compressor
Water Condenser Cooling GT -03 Active HP Steam LP Steam Vaccum
power Air Temperature Injection Discharge Fuel Flow
Tempera Water Flow Exhaust Power Flow Flow (abs)
G.T (T2) Flow (lbs/hr) Pressure (CDP)
ture

4.41 2.906 6.413 1.333 7.6317 4.5179 2.393 8.746 2.298 4.1719 1.00 1.872855
4.41 2.868 6.305 1.333 7.80997 4.511 2.396 8.723 2.275 4.1728 0.90 1.829738
4.41 2.938 6.333 1.343 7.73466 4.5057 2.39 8.737 2.317 4.181 1.00 1.877677
4.41 2.778 6.398 1.324 7.8531 4.5076 2.386 8.725 2.313 4.1767 0.90 1.860722
4.41 2.819 6.3 1.326 7.86413 4.4989 2.392 8.739 2.326 4.183 0.90 1.87459
4.41 2.812 6.302 1.326 7.56171 4.5077 2.388 8.736 2.315 4.1799 0.90 1.862462
4.41 2.877 6.5 1.321 7.44353 4.5128 2.392 8.78 2.296 4.187 1.00 1.809147
4.41 2.861 6.2 1.336 7.23167 4.4903 2.376 8.708 2.303 4.1967 1.00 1.85033
4.41 2.705 6.028 1.365 7.57802 4.4732 2.365 8.645 2.335 4.1966 0.90 1.948772
4.41 2.78 6.42 1.317 7.3768 4.5073 2.386 8.736 2.292 4.2135 0.90 1.89207
4.41 2.832 6.298 1.314 7.58667 4.513 2.198 8.069 2.083 4.2336 0.90 1.895208
4.41 2.732 6.025 1.328 7.81608 4.5176 1.142 4.28 1.114 4.1764 0.70 1.93101
4.41 2.476 5.467 1.327 7.69847 4.55 2.45 8.846 2.305 4.1872 0.80 1.939707
4.41 2.416 5.582 1.321 7.10117 4.5429 1.193 4.408 1.158 4.1683 0.60 1.916483

Figure 3.4

Here we can see that in order to produce 44.1 MW (rescaled), fuel input is variable i.e. in
between 18091.47 and 19487.72 PPH. This means that there are some external factors
involved like ambient conditions but the main factors are the ‘input parameters’ which
may not being handled rightly. Since we’ve our important parameters in hand, we will

49
vary them and observe the change in fuel flow, consequently heat rate by keeping gross
power constant.

3.1.7 TESTING:

It is seen from data that at 07/08/2015 15:00,

Actual Fuel Flow = 18728.55 PPH

Corresponding Heat Rate= 8759.41 Btu/Kwh

Predicted using ANN = 18778.23589 Btu/Kwh

Corresponding Heat Rate= 8782.644 Btu/Kwh

Now by using our two crucial variables obtained which are Vacuum and Water injection
Flow, the following results were observed.

By lowering Condenser Vacuum from 0.1 bar to 0.09 bar

Fuel Flow = 18706.02469 PPH
Corresponding Heat Rate = 8748.87 Btu/Kwh.

By increasing Water Injection Flow from 13.33 PPH to 13.46 PPH

Fuel Flow = 18677.07918 PPH
Corresponding Heat Rate = 8735.33 Btu/Kwh.

3.1.8 CALCULATIONS:
Old heat Rate = 8759.41 Btu/Kwh

New heat rate = 8735.33 Btu/Kwh.

Deviation in heat rate ‘β’= 24.08 Btu/Kwh.

Net Saving in Fuel Cost = β*Gross Generation*Fuel Cost1

= 24.08 * 44100* (600/1000000)

=637.1568 rupees/hour

1
http://www.ssgc.com.pk/web/?page_id=106

50
Net Saving for whole month = 547.137*24*30

=458752.896 rupees.

Thus by handling the most critical parameters rightly, significant amount can be saved,
thus further increasing CCPP efficiency.

51
 SOLAR
CHAPTER 4 RETROFITTING
'SOLAR
INTREGRATION
AND SUMMARIZING
CONCLUSION'

52
4.1 SOLAR INEGRATION:

Another integral way to improve heat rate is to link the solar technology indirectly with
conventional power plants. Introduction of solar technology basically reduces burden on
the power plant’s fuel usage because solar irradiance is used to supply some of the
energy, power output can therefore be increased or remain constant. This concept is
therefore names as Solar Assisted Combined Cycle. With the large scale usage of solar
technology for using solar irradiance to generate energy, concentrated solar power
technologies are used. A concentrated solar power system basically generates solar
thermal energy using mirrors or lenses to concentrate solar irradiance onto a small area or
tubes. Following are the concentrated solar power technologies discussed below starting
with over 90% usage in latest solar assisted power plants i.e. parabolic troughs, Fresnel
reflectors and Solar-powered Stirling engine. Furthermore three schemes are discussed
namely Integrated Solar Combined Cycle ISCC (includes solar boiler), Solar Assist
Combined Cycle with Mechanical Chiller (Solar Powered), Solar Assist Combined Cycle with
Absorption Chiller (Solar Powered) which are compatible along with conventional power
plants.

4.2 DISCUSSION:

Combined cycle power plants are already efficient in today’s world reaching around 59%
efficiency, introducing solar further optimizes power plant operation. The Integrated Solar
Combined Cycle (ISCC) is a new concept which proposes a conventional combined cycle
plant in conjunction with a solar collector field and a solar steam generator. Solar energy
conversion is about 39% as compared to Rankine cycle power plants of about 37% but the
steam turbine-generator size required for this integrated solar plant is greater than
conventional combined cycle. The advantages of using g this configuration are lower fuel
consumption thereby lower hazardous emissions. But there are two major critical
disadvantages for instance during cloudy weather and at night, the steam turbine is at

53
partial loads which in turn increases heat rate and as solar irradiance contribution
increases, combined cycle efficiency decreases.

Another concept introduced is called Solar Assisted Combine Cycle (SACC), where the solar
thermal or electrical energy directly used in power production as it is used for gas turbine
inlet air cooling. Basically chillers either mechanical or absorption type (with the presence
or absence of thermal energy storage tank) might be used for inlet air cooling to increase
power output. Mechanical chiller can cool down to a very low temperature and maintain it
using chilled water, usually driven by electric motors. On the other hand, absorption
chillers require less electric energy and they require thermal energy (steam or hot water)
as primary source of input. Now these chillers require significant amount of thermal or
electrical energy which can be extracted from solar irradiance during peak times on a hot
days therefore reducing burden on power plant and reducing auxiliary load. For SACC with
mechanical chillers for turbine inlet air cooling, all the electrical energy required for the
chiller and its auxiliaries is obtained from a photovoltaic plant. For SACC with absorption
chiller for turbine inlet air cooling, the type of chiller here requires low pressure steam
which can be obtained by direct steam generation using solar thermal collectors.

SACC plants require less solar energy than ISCC plants but they have great fuel
consumption. The efficiency of SACC plant is greater than ISCC due to more energy input.
ISCC plant can be used during hot weather for power increments but the performance of
gas turbine is de rated hence SACC plant provides better operation through turbine inlet
air cooling. The two configurations ISCC and SACC discussed have a slight difference in
efficiencies as compared to each other but SACC have an upper hand due to larger power
augmentation, lower incremental plant costs, smaller additional plot area and zero
integration problems.

54
4.3 SCHEMES OF SOLAR THERMAL TECHNOLOGY:

There are three schemes that are being used nowadays, discussed below

4.3.1 SOLAR POWERED STIRLING ENGINE

Due to the sense of ease the solar thermal energy has gained the spotlight for being a
viable candidate when it comes to utilization of solar energy. A more recent approach
involves integrating a Stirling Engine with a solar dish collector such as parabolic trough or
fresenal reflector. The use of solar powered stirling engine is considered to be more
efficient in comparison of other methods involving solar thermal systems. In addition the
stirling engine can also function on alternate fuels when the solar energy is not available
furthermore, the production of stirling engine turns out to be quite economical along with
the quality of being quite in operation. Therefore when once integrated with any power
plant the solar powered stirling engine would enhance the efficiency of the plant and
simultaneously slashing the heat rate of the power plant.

Working Principle

The proposed system would consist of three prime components: the stirling engine, the
solar collector dish and a thermal storage subsystem, moreover water heating system can
also be incorporated. Stirling engine is an external combustion engine which works on the
fundamental principle that air (working fluid) expands on heating and it contracts on
cooling. The stirling engine consists of the displacer piston, the power piston, links and
flywheel, the stirling engine is also provided with an external heating system which in our
case would be the solar collector dish and the heat sink can be the ambient environment
condition. Upon heating the working fluid present in forward chamber expands and the
displacer piston is pushed back resulting in the forward movement of power piston as well
as the cool air moves into the forward chamber, upon mixing with the cool air the hot air
contracts and the pistons are pulled back, as the displacer piston moves inwards the a part
of cool air escapes into the backward chamber where it is loses some amount of energy
to the heat sink which can be the ambient environment conditions and the process is

55
repeated, this back and forth movement of the piston is converted into a rotational
motion by the flywheel. The commonly used working fluids include air, helium, hydrogen,
nitrogen and water vapors because of their properties of compressibility, expansion and
thermal conductivity. The use of a heat storing fluid is of utmost importance owing to the
fact that the solar energy obtained through out a day in summer varies greatly and in
order to compensate for these variation a heat storing fluid also known as buffer comes
into play. When once heated up this buffer can store thermal energy for a sufficient time
producing stable, reliable and controllable output. The water heating system can be
considered as of an added advantage as stirling engine can be used along with a heat
exchanger to heat up water to be used in other processes in the industry.

4.3.2 PARABOLIC TROUGH TECHNOLOGY:

Parabolic trough is most widely used in concentrating solar power technology. A parabolic
trough power plant comprise of parabolic trough used to concentrate direct solar
radiation onto a tubular vessel containing a liquid for heat exchange.

Essential components for CSP plants:

• Parabolic trough collector

The collector’s cross sectional area is in the shape of a parabola, symmetrical around its
vertex. Four parameters essentially describe any parabola i.e. trough length, focal length
(distance between focal point and vertex of trough), aperture width and rim angle (angle
between optical axis and the line between focal point and mirror rim).

• Mirror materials

The mirror material should have high reflectivity which is dependent on specific range of
wavelengths. Here solar spectrum is critical hence solar weighted reflectivity is considered
which means the portion of reflected solar radiation. Furthermore specular reflectivity is
of great interest which tells that the solar radiation is reflected in a specific direction. The

56
most widely used mirror material is silver coated glass mirrors because of their durability
and even after decades of operation showed very less degradation in specular reflectivity

• Bearing structure

It is the most important part of positing a trough and for stability to allow very accurate
sun tracking. The structure should be stiff enough to hold its own weight and be
unaffected by wind loads. Usually the bearing structure is a space frame or tube type
structure made of steel or aluminum having support for mirrors and reflectors.

• Sun Tracking System

For continuous maximum solar radiation supply, sun tracking is essential. Single axis
tracking is applicable for line collectors while double axis tracking for point collectors. The
knowledge of positioning of sun is vital therefore sun position can be measured using
efficient mathematical algorithm or through sensors which transfer information to a
controller controlling the motors accordingly.

• Receiver

Receiver’s function is to convert heat radiation projected onto them into heat and
transport it through pipes. Receiver should have the property of high absorption rate and
less heat loss to the surrounding. For these properties to be effective, certain components
need to be designed for instance absorber tube which should have high absorbance rate
in the visible light range. To control heat loss through conduction and convection, the
absorber tube is further protected through glass tube which prevents air flow inside hot
absorber tube.

The most critical part of a parabolic trough power plant is heat transfer fluid which carries
accumulated heat towards the power block and there are two ways to carry it. Firstly,
indirect steam generation, a method in which a specific heat transfer fluid is chosen to
transfer heat to the Rankine cycle working fluid i.e. water. Secondly direct steam
generation in which steam generated is directly fed into the absorber tubes. A heat

57
transfer fluid must have high evaporation temperature (hinders evaporation if extreme
temperatures are reached), low freezing temperature (hinders freezing under too low
temperatures), thermally stable (prevent thermal cracking), high heat capacity (to store
maximum heat energy), high heat conductivity (for fast heat transfer) and less viscosity. It
should be readily available, economical, and environmentally friendly with low
inflammability and explosivity. Some of the heat transfer fluid used includes synthetic
thermo oil, mineral oil, molten salt etc.

4.3.3 FRESNEL REFLECTOR TECHNOLOGY

In Concentrated Solar Power (CSP), to capture the sunlight onto a small area, lenses and
mirrors are being used. CLFR (Compact Linear Fresnel Reflector) technology is also a type
of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) that is regarded for its very simple and robust design.

Solar thermal form of energy is captured and concentrated with mirror reflectors
equipped with tracking devices to enhance or maximize the quantity of solar energy that is
collected throughout the day.

The purpose of receiver tube of the CLFR is to capture the focused and reflected sunrays
on the focal axis of the reflector. There is a fluid inside the tube which is called heat
transfer fluid that circulates inside the tube, water in this case which is heated,
evaporated and superheated by the concentrated solar energy.

Linear Fresnel solar CSP technology enables the use of steam and water directly as a heat
transfer fluid because of the control of two-phase flow within the receiver tube. By doing
this we can minimize the need of potentially hazardous and fluid of pollutant nature heat
transfer fluid and of a generator run by steam. The production of steam can thereby be
fed to the Rankine thermodynamic cycle, where the steam turbine which is coupled to the
alternator produces heat or thermal energy into a electrical form of energy. We can scale
the CLFR technology as per power plant requirement, from 50 to 500 MW (power) and 10
MW to 50 MW (boosters and industrial steam).

58
The Fresnel reflectors can be employed in two different ways:

Standalone:

The steam production from concentrated solar power is used to directly drive the steam
turbines thereby producing electrical form of energy.

Booster application:

In order to increase the quantity of available steam for coal fired and natural gas fired
power plants, solar steam generators are used. Solar steam enable us in minimizing
carbon footprints and other harmful emission of power plant, making it possible to
increase the electricity generation during peak hours.

4.4 CONCLUSION:

The objective of this project was heat rate optimization and fuel saving leading to cost
saving by critical plant parameters improvisation. Initially the plant data was collected
from Korangi Power Complex and pre-processed for ANN to train. In the next phase the
most critical parameters affecting the heat rate were filtered out of total 30 parameters
using inspection and other variable reduction techniques including PCA and Regression.
This resulted in highlighting 11 critical parameters but for heat rate improvement the two
most influential parameters were to be altered within operational constrains thus the 11
critical parameters was ranked upon the degree of importance associated with each by
sensitivity analysis. The result of sensitivity analysis showed condenser vacuum and water
injection flow as most influential parameter affecting the heat rate. Finally ANN was
trained with 11 critical parameters and through this predictive model heat rate was
improved from 8759.4 BTU/KWH to 8735.33 BTU/KWH by varying condenser vacuum and
water injection flow and cost saving up to 637 Rupees/Hour was achieved.

Meanwhile the other part of the project based on solar integration is also discussed. The
schemes with which the solar thermal process takes place are presented as well.
Techniques based on various chillers in also included.

59
 REFERENCES
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[2] http://homeai.info/directory/algorithms/

[3] Zhang Xinbo Chen Jinsai “Short Term Power System Load Forecasting Based On
Improved BP Artificial Neural Network” 978-1-4244-8728-8/11

[4] García, Salvador, Julián Luengo, and Francisco Herrera. Data preprocessing in data
mining. New York: Springer, 2015.

[5] Platon, Radu, Vahid Raissi Dehkordi, and Jacques Martel. "Hourly prediction of a
building's electricity consumption using case-based reasoning, artificial neural networks
and principal component analysis." Energy and Buildings 92 (2015): 10-18.

[6] http://ncss.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-
content/themes/ncss/pdf/Procedures/NCSS/Stepwise_Regression.pdf

[7] http://www.stat.wisc.edu/~loh/treeprogs/guide/wires11.pdf

[8] Sung, A. H. "Ranking importance of input parameters of neural networks." Expert Systems with
Applications 15.3 (1998): 405-411.

[9] Du Xin-hui, Tian Feng, Tan Shao-qiong “Study of Power System Short-term Load
Forecast Based on Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm” 2010 International
Conference on Computational Aspects of Social Networks

[10] Deshpande, Purva, et al. "Thermal power plant analysis using artificial neural
network." 2012 Nirma University International Conference on Engineering (NUiCONE).
IEEE, 2012.

[11] http://www.lehigh.edu/~inenr/leu/leu_61.pdf

[12]http://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Energy%20Analysis/Publications/T
hermalEfficCoalFiredPowerPlants-TechWorkshopRpt.pdf

[13] http://www.eenews.net/assets/2014/08/14/document_gw_01.pdf

[14] http://www.areva.com/EN/operations-3422/concentrated-solar-power-
technology.html
[15] http://www.doe.gov.ph/energy-efficiency/heat-rate-improvement-in-power-plant

[16] Matthias Günther, Michael Joemann, Simon Csambor, “Advanced CSP Teaching Materials”,
enerMENA, DLR - Institut für Solarforschung.
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[17] Ahmadi, M.H., Mohammadi, A.H., Dehghani, S. and Barranco-Jiménez, M.A. (2013)
‘Multi-objective thermodynamic-based optimization of output power of solar dish-stirling
engine by implementing an evolutionary algorithm’, Energy Conversion and Management,
75, pp. 438–445. doi: 10.1016/j.enconman.2013.06.030.
[18] http://ijergs.org/files/documents/DESIGN-AND-TESTING27.pdf
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Turnitin Originality Report

FYP Final By Syed Subhan Ahsen

 Processed on: 07-Nov-2016 10:49 PKT

 ID: 733228697
 Word Count: 10602
 Submitted: 1

Similarity Index
16%

Internet Sources:
12%
Publications:
5%
Student Papers1:
11%

Checked by:

Abdullah Munir (Signed)

Lecturer EED

1
Indicates EESD 2016 conference paper, orally presented by us.