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Statistic Formulas
POPULATION � 𝑿𝑿 � = 𝑬𝑬�𝜽𝜽
� 𝑿𝑿 � − 𝜽𝜽𝑿𝑿
ESTIMATOR Bias�𝜽𝜽 UNBIASED ESTIMATOR?
PARAMETER
2 2
Mean Squared Error 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀�𝜃𝜃�𝑋𝑋 � = 𝐸𝐸 ��𝜃𝜃�𝑋𝑋 − 𝜃𝜃𝑋𝑋 � � = 𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉�𝜃𝜃�𝑋𝑋 � + �𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵�𝜃𝜃�𝑋𝑋 ��
SAMPLE PROP. T-
DISTRIBUTION CHI-SQUARE FISHER’S F
(Bernoulli) STUDENT
𝑥𝑥
𝑝𝑝(1 − 𝑝𝑝) (𝑛𝑛 − 1)𝑆𝑆 2 ~ 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛 𝑋𝑋1 ⁄𝑛𝑛1 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑋𝑋21 �𝜎𝜎𝑋𝑋21
ESTIMATOR 𝑝𝑝̂ ~ 𝑁𝑁 �𝑝𝑝, � � 2
~ 𝑋𝑋𝑛𝑛−1 ~ 𝐹𝐹𝑛𝑛1,𝑛𝑛2 ~ 𝐹𝐹𝑛𝑛1−1,𝑛𝑛2−1
𝑛𝑛 𝜎𝜎 2 �𝑌𝑌�𝑛𝑛 𝑋𝑋2 ⁄𝑛𝑛2 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑋𝑋21 �𝜎𝜎𝑋𝑋22
PIVOTAL BOUNDS
PARAMETER ASSUMPTIONS CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
QUANTITY (Upper/Lower)
𝑥𝑥̅ − 𝜇𝜇0 𝜎𝜎 𝜇𝜇 ≤ 𝑥𝑥̅ + 𝑧𝑧𝛼𝛼 𝜎𝜎�
Normal data, ~ 𝑁𝑁(0,1) 𝜇𝜇 ∈ �𝑥𝑥̅ ∓ 𝑧𝑧𝛼𝛼�2 � √𝑛𝑛
𝜎𝜎
𝜎𝜎 known � 𝑛𝑛 √𝑛𝑛 𝜇𝜇 ≥ 𝑥𝑥̅ − 𝑧𝑧𝛼𝛼 𝜎𝜎�
√ √𝑛𝑛
𝑥𝑥̅ − 𝜇𝜇0 𝑠𝑠 𝜇𝜇 ≤ 𝑥𝑥̅ + 𝑧𝑧𝛼𝛼 𝑠𝑠�
Non-normal data, ~ 𝑁𝑁(0,1) 𝜇𝜇 ∈ �𝑥𝑥̅ ∓ 𝑧𝑧𝛼𝛼�2 � √𝑛𝑛
𝑠𝑠
𝑛𝑛 ≥ 30 � 𝑛𝑛 √𝑛𝑛 𝜇𝜇 ≥ 𝑥𝑥̅ − 𝑧𝑧𝛼𝛼 𝑠𝑠�
√ √𝑛𝑛
Population
𝑝𝑝̂ (1 − 𝑝𝑝̂ )
mean [𝝁𝝁] 𝑝𝑝̂ − 𝑝𝑝0 𝑝𝑝 ≤ 𝑝𝑝̂ + 𝑧𝑧𝛼𝛼 �
Bernoulli distrib., ~ 𝑁𝑁(0,1) 𝑝𝑝̂ (1 − 𝑝𝑝̂ ) 𝑛𝑛
𝑝𝑝 ∈ �𝑝𝑝̂ ∓ 𝑧𝑧𝛼𝛼�2 � �
𝑛𝑛 ≥ 30 �𝑝𝑝(1 − 𝑝𝑝) 𝑛𝑛 𝑝𝑝̂ (1 − 𝑝𝑝̂ )
𝑛𝑛 𝑝𝑝 ≥ 𝑝𝑝̂ − 𝑧𝑧𝛼𝛼 �
𝑛𝑛
ACTUAL SITUATION
DECISION
𝐻𝐻0 is TRUE 𝐻𝐻0 is FALSE
No error Type II error (𝛽𝛽)
ACCEPT 𝐻𝐻0
(1 − 𝛼𝛼) 𝑃𝑃(𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 𝐻𝐻0 |𝐻𝐻0 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓)
REJECTION REGION (RRα): �𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 > 𝑧𝑧𝛼𝛼�2 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 < −𝑧𝑧𝛼𝛼�2 � , �𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 ∉ [−𝑧𝑧𝛼𝛼�2 , 𝑧𝑧𝛼𝛼�2 ]�
PIVOTAL
PARAMETER ASSUMPTIONS REJECTION REGION IN TWO-TAIL TEST (RRα)
QUANTITY
� − 𝐷𝐷0
𝐷𝐷 𝑠𝑠𝐷𝐷
Normal differences ~ 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛−1 𝜇𝜇𝑋𝑋 − 𝜇𝜇𝑌𝑌 ∈ �𝑑𝑑̅ ∓ 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛−1,𝛼𝛼�2 �
𝑠𝑠𝐷𝐷
𝜎𝜎1 , 𝜎𝜎2 known � √𝑛𝑛
√𝑛𝑛
𝑋𝑋� − 𝑌𝑌� − 𝐷𝐷0
Normal pops. ~ 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛1 +𝑛𝑛2 −2 1 1
𝜇𝜇𝑋𝑋 − 𝜇𝜇𝑌𝑌 ∈ �𝑥𝑥̅ − 𝑦𝑦� ∓ 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛1 +𝑛𝑛2−2,𝛼𝛼�2 𝑆𝑆𝑝𝑝 � + �
𝜎𝜎12 = 𝜎𝜎22 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆�1�𝑛𝑛1 + 1�𝑛𝑛2 𝑛𝑛1 𝑛𝑛2
𝑝𝑝̂𝑋𝑋 − 𝑝𝑝̂ 𝑌𝑌
Bernoulli pops. ≈ 𝑁𝑁(0,1) 1 1
𝒑𝒑𝑿𝑿 − 𝒑𝒑𝒀𝒀 = 𝟎𝟎 1 1 𝑝𝑝𝑋𝑋 − 𝑝𝑝𝑌𝑌 ∈ �𝑝𝑝̂𝑋𝑋 − 𝑝𝑝̂𝑌𝑌 ∓ 𝑧𝑧𝛼𝛼�2 �𝑝𝑝̂ 0 (1 − 𝑝𝑝̂0 ) � + ��
Large samples �𝑝𝑝̂ 0 (1 − 𝑝𝑝̂ 0 ) �
𝑛𝑛1 + 𝑛𝑛2 �
𝑛𝑛1 𝑛𝑛2
𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝐷𝐷0 ∈ 𝐶𝐶𝐼𝐼1−𝛼𝛼 ⟹ 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 𝐻𝐻0 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝐷𝐷0 ∉ 𝐶𝐶𝐼𝐼1−𝛼𝛼 ⟹ 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝐻𝐻0
� 1 − 𝛽𝛽1
𝛽𝛽
𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐(𝑥𝑥, 𝑦𝑦) 𝑆𝑆𝑅𝑅2 ~ 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛−2
𝛽𝛽̂1 = 𝛽𝛽1 ∈ �𝛽𝛽̂1 ∓ 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛−2,𝛼𝛼�2 � � 𝑠𝑠𝑅𝑅2
𝑠𝑠𝑋𝑋2 (𝑛𝑛 − 1)𝑠𝑠𝑋𝑋2 �
(𝑛𝑛 − 1)𝑠𝑠𝑋𝑋2
� 0 − 𝛽𝛽0
𝛽𝛽
1 𝑥𝑥̅ 2 ~ 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛−2
𝛽𝛽̂0 = 𝑦𝑦� − 𝛽𝛽̂1 𝑥𝑥̅ 𝛽𝛽0 ∈ �𝛽𝛽̂0 ∓ 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛−2,𝛼𝛼�2 �𝑆𝑆𝑅𝑅2 � + �� 1 �2
𝑥𝑥
𝑛𝑛 (𝑛𝑛 − 1)𝑠𝑠𝑋𝑋2 �𝑆𝑆2𝑅𝑅 � + �
𝑛𝑛 (𝑛𝑛 − 1)𝑠𝑠2𝑋𝑋
∑ 𝑒𝑒𝑖𝑖2
𝑆𝑆𝑅𝑅2 = (𝑛𝑛 − 2)𝑆𝑆𝑅𝑅2 (𝑛𝑛 − 2)𝑆𝑆𝑅𝑅2 𝑠𝑠𝑅𝑅2
𝑛𝑛 − 2 𝜎𝜎 2 ∈ � 2 , 2 � 𝑠𝑠�𝛽𝛽� 𝑖𝑖 � = �
𝜒𝜒𝑛𝑛−2, 𝛼𝛼� 𝜒𝜒𝑛𝑛−2,1−𝛼𝛼� (𝑛𝑛 − 1)𝑠𝑠𝑋𝑋2
Simple linear regression 2 2
1 (𝑥𝑥̅ − 𝑥𝑥)2
𝐸𝐸[𝑌𝑌0 ] ∈ �𝑌𝑌�0 ∓ 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛−2,𝛼𝛼�2 �𝑆𝑆𝑅𝑅2 � + ��
𝑛𝑛 (𝑛𝑛 − 1)𝑠𝑠𝑋𝑋2
� 𝑖𝑖 − 𝛽𝛽𝑖𝑖
𝛽𝛽
𝑦𝑦� = 𝑦𝑦� − 𝛽𝛽̂1 (𝑥𝑥̅ − 𝑥𝑥) ~ 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛−𝑘𝑘−1
𝑠𝑠�𝛽𝛽� 𝑖𝑖 �
1 (𝑥𝑥̅ − 𝑥𝑥)2
𝑌𝑌0 ∈ �𝑌𝑌�0 ∓ 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛−2,𝛼𝛼�2 �𝑆𝑆𝑅𝑅2 �1 + + ��
𝑛𝑛 (𝑛𝑛 − 1)𝑠𝑠𝑋𝑋2
∑ 𝑒𝑒𝑖𝑖2
𝑆𝑆𝑅𝑅2 =
𝑛𝑛 − 𝑘𝑘 − 1 𝛽𝛽𝑖𝑖 ∈ �𝛽𝛽̂𝑖𝑖 ± 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛−𝑘𝑘−1,𝛼𝛼�2 𝑠𝑠�𝛽𝛽̂𝑖𝑖 �� 𝛽𝛽̂ = (𝑋𝑋 𝑇𝑇 𝑋𝑋)−1 𝑋𝑋 𝑇𝑇 𝑌𝑌 𝑦𝑦� = 𝑋𝑋𝛽𝛽̂
Multiple linear regression
∑𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖2 − 𝑛𝑛(𝑥𝑥̅ )2 Covariance ∑𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 𝑦𝑦𝑖𝑖 − 𝑛𝑛(𝑥𝑥̅ )(𝑦𝑦�)
Variance [𝒔𝒔𝟐𝟐𝒙𝒙𝒊𝒊 ]
𝑛𝑛 − 1 [𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄𝒄(𝒙𝒙, 𝒚𝒚)] 𝑛𝑛 − 1
ANOVA table
Source of variability SS DF Mean F ratio
Model SSM 𝑘𝑘 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆/𝑘𝑘 (𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆/𝑘𝑘)/𝑠𝑠𝑅𝑅2
Residuals/errors SSR 𝑛𝑛 − 𝑘𝑘 − 1 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆/(𝑛𝑛 − 𝑘𝑘 − 1)
Total SST 𝑛𝑛 − 1 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆/𝑘𝑘
𝐹𝐹 =
𝑠𝑠𝑅𝑅2
𝐻𝐻0 : 𝑝𝑝𝑖𝑖 = 𝑝𝑝𝑖𝑖0 ∀𝑖𝑖 ∈ {1, … , 𝑘𝑘} 𝐻𝐻1 : 𝑝𝑝𝑖𝑖 ≠ 𝑝𝑝𝑖𝑖0 ∀𝑖𝑖 ∈ {1, … , 𝑘𝑘}
2
�𝑁𝑁𝑖𝑖 − 𝑛𝑛𝑝𝑝𝑖𝑖0 � 2
𝑄𝑄 = 𝑄𝑄~ 𝜒𝜒𝑘𝑘−1
𝑛𝑛𝑝𝑝𝑖𝑖0
2
𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝐻𝐻0 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑄𝑄 > 𝜒𝜒𝑘𝑘−1,𝛼𝛼