PREDICTING CAR SALES IN 2030 IN INDONESIA USING THE

LEAST SQUARE METHOD.

Bella Syahrani Nasution1, Annisa Rajaq Lumban Batu 2, Dafa Al Qifti Nasution3, Dhea Auliya
Ramadhani Zahri 4,
1,3
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara, Medan.

Article Info ABSTRACT

Article history: In tackling the large number of cars in Indonesia, which may occur in
the next few years, the government's efforts to widen the roads are
needed.
The purpose of this study is to predict the number of cars in 2030
using the least square method from the data on the number of cars
Keywords: sold from 2010 to 2018.
Predict the number of the cars in
2030, least square method. The method used in this study is a quantitative method. Because we
present a graph of car sales from 2010 to 2018.
The results using this method obtained that car sales in 2030 were
443839 cars.

Corresponding Author:
Bella Syahrani Nasution, Annisa Rajaq Lumban Batu, Dafa Al Qifti Nasution, Dhea Auliya Ramadhani
Zahri
Department of Mathematics,
North Sumatra State Islamic University, Medan, Indonesia

1. INTRODUCTION
Congestion on roads, especially in Indonesia due to the increasing number of private vehicles,
has led us to conclude that we predict the number of vehicles in 2030 in Indonesia. So that the
government can anticipate to widen the highway in order to reduce congestion and prepare the fuel to
be used.
The purpose of this proposal is to predict how many cars will be sold in 2030 in Indonesia using the
Least Square method.
To fulfill the task of the Research Methodology course in the Mathematics Department of UINSU
MEDAN.
In working on this proposal, it leads to several journals that have been read, these journals include:

Research by Yasir Amani on forecasting in determining the number of spare parts that must be
provided on a vehicle engine using the least square method.

Research by Bangun Unedo Putra Manurung (2015) on predictions of motorcycle sales at Pt. Graha
Auto Pratama with the least square method.

Research by Ita Indah Sari, et al (2020) on forecasting rice production in Leranwetan village, Palang
sub-district, Tuban district with the least square method.
The car is a land transportation that runs on four wheels and can run on fuel oil. People’s discomfort
in using public transportation causes many Indonesian people to switch to using privately owned
vehicles, one of which is a car. The increase in the number of cars can be predicted by using the least
square method formula. This is to anticipate the government in preparing the amount of fuel oil that
will be used and preparing for road widening.
2. Research Method
The research method used is quantitative research methods. Quoted from Kompas news. Based
on the graph below:

Years Sales every X XY X2

year (Y)
2010 174074 -4 -696296 16
 2011 225739 -3 -677217 9
2012 250830 -2 -501660 4
2013 296005 -1 -296500 1
2014 328500 0 0 0
2015 282344 1 282344 1
2016 267302 2 534604 4
2017 283760 3 851280 9
2018 291912 4 1167648 16
Jumlah 2400466 0 664203 60

Then a = ∑Y / n
b = ∑ XY /∑ X 2

A = 2400466/9 =266718.44
B = 664203/60 =110700.05
So the forecast for is:
Y (2030) = a + (b. X)
= 266718.44+ (11070.05 x 16)
=266718.44 +177120.8
=443839,24
Then the possibility of car sales in 2030 is 443839.24 units.

This research was taken from 2010 to 2018. And this study estimates the number of cars in 2030.
Where the number of cars in 2010 is 174074 units. In 2011 there were 225739 units. In 2012 there
were 250830 units. In 2013 there were 296005 pieces. In 2014 there were 328500 pieces. In 2015
there were 282344 units. In 2016 there were 267302 units. In 2017 there were 283760 units. And in
2018 there were 291912 cars.
3. Result
Then the possibility of car sales in 2030 is 443839.24 units. This is obtained by first adding up
the number of cars from 2010 to 2018. Besides that, it also looks for the product of each year the
number of cars multiplied by the variable determined by the least square method. Because the
data is odd, the year 2010 starts with the number -4. Then the next step is to divide the total
number of cars over the past 9 years by the number 9. And the product of the method variable by
the number of cars in the year is divided by the number of the least squared method variables.
So to get the results of how many cars in 2030 is the number of cars each year multiplied by each
variable divided by the variable squared and then added the variable in 2030 which is 16. After
that add the number of all cars for 9 years divided by 9.

4. Conclusion
By using the least square method, we can predict sales in the following year by comparing with
the previous year. In the least square method, we can calculate it from both even and odd data.
The difference can be seen where the odd data makes an x table starting from .....,-2,-1,0,1,2,......
according to the regular number sequence. However, if predicting an even value data can be
 solved by making a table x starting with the numbers ...., -5, -3, -1, 1, 3, 5, ..... The sequence of
numbers is odd and the difference one is getting to the right. Paying attention to the even or odd
data, it can be seen how many possibilities.

Based on the graph shown above, the data is odd data. Using the formula from the least square
method, it is obtained that the probability of the number of cars in 2030 is 443839 units. Where
this number exceeds the number of cars from 2010 to 2018. That is why by predicting that the
number of cars will increase, we hope that the government can overcome this by expanding the
road.

5. References
Siagian, Dergibson dan Sugiarto.2000.Metode Statistika Untuk Bisnis dan
Ekonomi.Jakarta:GramediaPustaka Utama
Pane, Syafrial Fachri dan Esi Vidya Rachmadani.2020.Big
Data:ForecastingMenggunakan Phyton.Bandung:KreatifIndustri Nusantara
Sumarwan dan Ujang Fachrodji, Achmad Nursal, Adman.2011.Pemasaran Strategik
Perspektif Value Based Marketing & Pengukuran Kinerja.Bogor:IPB Press

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