GIN REPORT MAY 2015

GROWTH INTERPRETATION
NARRATIVE
2015
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© Nazri RM / RSPO
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Version 1 - June 3, 2015

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Executive Statement ................................................................................................ 1

2. The Annual Production Capacity of Certified Sustainable Palm Oil ........ 2

3. The Supply of Certified Sustainable Palm Oil .................................................. 4

4. The Use of Book & Claim ........................................................................................ 6

5. Total Market Uptake ................................................................................................ 10

6. Regional Market Uptake ......................................................................................... 11

7. Time Bound Plans..................................................................................................... 13

8. Membership Development .................................................................................... 17

9. Strategic Outlook ..................................................................................................... 19

1. EXECUTIVE STATEMENT

W
e have seen tremendous
developments in the palm oil
sector over the last few years.
The Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil
(RSPO) has reviewed its Principles & Criteria
(P&C), production and sales volumes of
Certified Sustainable Palm Oil (CSPO) keep
growing and substantial progress has been
made in terms of sustainable development
initiatives in the industry.

With this 2015 Growth Interpretation

Narrative (GIN)—the first was published
in 2012—RSPO summarizes these
developments and gives an insight into
the quantitative palm oil data collected over
the last few years. Other than the Annual
Communications of Progress (ACOP) Digest,
which mostly focuses on the progress made
by RSPO members over a specific year, the
GIN provides an analysis of the trends over
a longer period of time.
Let me share three observations with you,
which I think warrant further reflection.
First, the palm oil industry has demonstrated
the willingness and ability to implement
sustainability practices at a speed that has
never been seen before in any other agri-
commodity industry. In little over 10 years
after the inception of RSPO, some 20% of
total production volumes comply with RSPO
P&C, and some 50% of these volumes are
sold through RSPO supply chain modules.
However, the job is not done yet. Our P&C
reflect the ever-changing expectations of
industry and society stakeholders, and
evolve over time. In the coming years, we
must formulate and implement responses to
the continuing concerns over deforestation,
human rights and climate change. Initiatives
by members voluntarily going beyond
current RSPO criteria indicate the general
direction. For our commodity supply chain to
remain manageable, we must find common
solutions to these issues.
Secondly, we see our members struggling
to fulfill their commitments. Included in the
analyses in this GIN is a closer look at the
Time Bound Plans (TBPs) of our downstream
members, stating the year that they expect
to reach (the trade, sale or use of) 100% Darrel Webber,
CSPO. The analysis is strictly based on data Secretary General
from submitted ACOPs, but demonstrates RSPO
that numerous changes have been made
in these target years. For instance, of the
210 consumer goods manufacturers who
submitted their 2014 ACOP, some 20 have
brought their deadlines forward, while 31
of 170 processors and traders submitting
their 2014 ACOP have postponed their target
years. We will start a conversation with our
membership to explore the causes of these
changes and what RSPO may be able to do
to address any issues in the supply chain
and markets to further facilitate true market
transformation.
To achieve this global market transformation,
we are developing a more regional approach.
For 2020, we aim for Europe to achieve 100%
uptake of CSPO, Malaysia and Indonesia both
50%, India 30% and China 10%. In analyzing
the data in the GIN, we have found that we
need better information management to
valuably work with our members to progress
towards these regional targets. Therefore,
the ACOP questionnaire for 2015 will be
redesigned to include more regional data.
While proud of our achievements to date, I
look forward to collaborate with you all on
the challenges ahead.

RSPO’s 2015 CSPO Growth Interpretation Narrative Executive Statement 1

2. The Annual Production Capacity of
Certified Sustainable Palm Oil

S
ince the RSPO certification scheme became in 2013, and a recovery in 2014 to the
available for growers in 2008, the production average levels for the 2008-2014 periods.

11,955,234

11,955,234
capacity for certified palm oil has grown steadily. Zooming in on the difference between
2013 and 2014, we see 33% growth
The production area has grown more than 20-fold, in production area, 19% increase in
from over 106,000 hectares (ha) in 2008 to more than certified area and 22% growth in
2.6m ha in 2014, with another 655,000 ha added to production capacity, demonstrating
the industry production volume in 2013-2014. this recovery.

The RSPO certified area1 has grown even more Including the latest figures for
impressively, from over 125,000 ha in 2008 to over early 2015, the total certified
3m ha (Mha) in 2014, with another 500,000 ha added area has grown to 3.4 Mha, with

9,792,185

9,792,185
in the last year. certified production capacity
having grown to 12.65m Mt
The annual production capacity has grown to over from 60 growers with some

8,184,200

8,184,200
11.9m metric tonnes (Mt) for Certified Sustainable 310 certified mills.
Palm Oil (CSPO) and over 2.7m Mt for Certified
Sustainable Palm Kernel (CSPK). The historical data
show that production capacity for CSPO is growing
by some 2m Mt year-on-year.

The charts below also suggest a temporary dip in

5,573,202

5,573,202
the growth of both area and production capacity
ANNUAL
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION AREA (HA) CAPACITY (MT)
FOR 2008-2014 FOR 2008-2014
3,522,207

3,522,207
3,159,277

3,159,277

Production area Production area CSPO (mt) CSPO (mt)

Certified area Certified area CSPK (mt) CSPK (mt)
2,713,935

2,713,935
2,653,058

2,633,583

2,653,058

2,633,583

2,244,312

2,244,312
1,473,912

1,473,912
2,105,433

2,105,433
1,978,110

1,978,110

1,896,702

1,896,702
1,526,273

1,526,273

1,296,488

1,296,488
1,299,891

1,299,891
1,130,969

1,130,969

803,999

803,999
718,080

718,080
644,816

644,816

619,012

619,012
304,421

304,421

338,740

338,740
264,952

264,952

154,335

154,335
106,384
125,288

106,384
125,288
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
2008

2013
2009

2014
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
2008

2013
2009

2014
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

1
The certified area is larger than the production area because parts of the production area are not productive (immature area).

2 The Annual Production Capacity of Certified Sustainable Palm Oil RSPO’s 2015 CSPO Growth Interpretation Narrative
TOTAL CERTIFIED AREA (‘000 HA)
Total certified area
('000 ha)
Indonesia 1,525

Malaysia 1,402

Papua New Guinea 231

Brazil 162

Colombia 25

Thailand 21

Cambodia 18

(SHG) 17
Group Certification for Smallholders

Ghana 14

Guatemala 10

Solomon Islands 9

Ecuador 4

Madagascar 2

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Total:
3,440 mha

CSPO production
CSPO PRODUCTIONcapacity
CAPACITY(’000
(‘000 MT)
mt)
Indonesia 6,389

Malaysia 5,184

Papua New Guinea 624

Brazil 142

Colombia 68

Guatemala 53

(SHG) 46
Group Certification for Smallholders

Thailand 45

Solomon Islands 38

Cambodia 26

Ghana 26

Ecuador 7

Madagascar 1

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

Total:
12,650 MT

RSPO’s 2015 CSPO Growth Interpretation Narrative The Annual Production Capacity of Certified Sustainable Palm Oil 3
3. The Supply Of Certified Sustainable Palm Oil

M
irroring the growth in production numbers, supply has grown each year with
capacity, the 2008-2014 period 1.5m – 2m Mt since 2009. CSPK supplies
shows a steady growth in the have grown from over 41,000 Mt in 2008
supply of both certified palm and palm to over 2.5m Mt in 2014, with annual
kernel oil volumes. increases fluctuating between 180,000 Mt
(2012-2013) and 500,000 Mt (2013-2014).
CSPO supplies have grown from over
163,000 Mt in 2008 to more than 10.9m
Mt in 2014. Looking at the year-on-year

13,530,282
CSPO & CSPK SUPPLIES 2008-2014 (MT PER YEAR)

10,766,589
8,294,306
5,910,510

5,349,666
4,513,273
3,479,415
3,413,883

2,490,526
1,678,833

1,281,134
343,857
205,175
4,452

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

CSPK supply CSPO supply CSPO sales through B&C CSPO sales through SG and MB*

The chart on next page shows the top 20 third position for most years. Wilmar
producers of CSPO ranked by their total would also join their ranks if recently
CSPO supplies during 2008 - 2014. Of acquired PPB Oil Palms was also included
note, New Britain Palm Oil (NBPOL) was in the assessment. Surprisingly, PT Ivo
CSPO Sales/Supply (mt)
the largest CSPO supplier in 2008 and Mas Tunggal supplied high volumes of
2009, but then was overtaken by Sime CSPO in 2012, making them the second
Darby Plantations in 2010, which has largest supplier that year. However, they
firmly held that position ever since. The did not reappear in the top 5 in the other
enormous growth of Sime Darby supplies years. The following table illustrates the
since 2011 has widened the gap between temporary dip in production volumes *For information on Segregated (SG)
& Mass Balance (MB) supply chains,
them and other51,9%growers. NBPOL, IOI between 2013 and 2014. visit www.rspo.org/certification/supply-
51,7% 51,7%
Group or Felda are ranked in second and48,6% chains
46,2% 51,9% 51,7% 51,7%
48,6%
46,2%
4 The Supply of Certified Sustainable Palm Oil RSPO’s 2015 CSPO Growth Interpretation Narrative

25,3%
TOP 20 CSPO PRODUCER MEMBERS RANKED ON TOTAL
CSPO SUPPLIED 2008-2014 (MT PER YEAR)

(MT)
2.5
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2

1.5

0.5

0
AD

)
D

HD

UP

AS

6)
D

TD

UP

RO
GA

OU
TB

TB

PL
BU
LD

AM
HA

LT

TE

HA
BH

(4
M
LL

RO
RO

RH

SB

SE
A
FE

NG
AL

GS
SU
T

GR
ER

ER

RS
AT
N

OR
OI

IM
AR
FG

SI
BE
IG

R
ON
SD

ON

IN

HE
SB

)B
TU
IR

E
NE

IT

A
US
M

RP
SM

(P
IO

NG

PE

LD
W

TI

LM
W

IA

OT
ON

I
M
L

DO
AT

AS

CO
TA

IV
PA

RO

SA
SI

HO
YS
PO

PT
AL

PA
RN
TI

PT
AN

IN

IN

A
LA
DO
IN

AG
LP
TA

KE

RO
AR
A.
O
TE

RA

A
PL

ILL
ITA
AN

IN
OI

IV

E.

NT
(M
PT

AG
R

IN

AT

RG

R.
ED
PU
BR

PT

TI
PL

SA
AR

LIM
M
PP

IN
IT

CA
M
W
Y

NU
SU
ILM
UN
RB

LU

PT

KU
NE

AN
DA

ON
A

W
AL

UN
ND
E

KU
M

EB
LO
SI

RK
PP

PE
PT

PT

TARGET CSPO In 2012, RSPO predicted CSPO production levels would reach 6.72m Mt
PRODUCTION in 2015, based on certification progress reported by members. Today,
we see that much higher levels have been achieved--supplies of more
than 10.99m Mt were reported at the end of 2014, some 64% higher
than expected in 2012!

RSPO’s 2015 CSPO Growth Interpretation Narrative The Supply of Certified Sustainable Palm Oil 5
4. The Use Of Book & Claim

As
o ther sustainability B&C certificates are typically used in
schemes for agricultural countries and markets where physical
commodities, RSPO volumes of CSPO and CSPK are less
provides an alternative to trading in easily available. Companies using palm
physical volumes with the supply chain oil derivatives, such as in the home and
option to trade in Book & Claim (B&C) personal care business, typically choose
certificates. certificates.

Top 20 suppliers of Greenpalm certificates* ranked on

Total redeemed volumes (2008-2014)
TOP 20 SUPPLIERS OF GREENPALM CERTIFICATES*
RANKED ON TOTAL REDEEMED VOLUMES (2008-2014)

2008-2012 2013 2014

4,376,430

1,959,800

1,036,274

1,087,805
279,000
288,584
789,886

260,724

252,340
304,057
968,567

392,978
495,397

153,859
198,746
265,197

162,767

157,589
519,901

417,195

165,711
Total

(MT)
25

15

10

5
N/A

N/A
N/A

SHARE 18% 12% 16% 2% 4% 9% 2% 6% 3% 0% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 0% 2% 1% 0% 12%

SI S

IA

PT

AD

IA
AD

SA

UR

AS
RS

TE

NT

AD

8)
OL
AY RE

PT
A)

FN
M
H

LT

(2
ES

ON
LP
DE

TO

OM

E
M
RH

RH
RH
A)

R
B

ND
SI

A
.
AL TU

EM
E

TS
N

BU

R
PE
RS
DN

AK
E

OL

AZ
NA
N
PT

BE

BE
E

HE
DO

D
ON

FA

HI
(M U

SE
SB
SI

SU

UR
BE

IN

AM
LH
D YF

SS

IO
NG

OT
A)

NG
IN

LL
&
SA
ND

RO
ON

OC
AL

N
AN

AT
IT

RO
BH RB

CE

SI

HI
DI

IL
RA

DA
DA

PO
W
I

AG
AY

RN

PR
LO
TI
(

RG
VI

AR
N DA

AG
A

SA
Y

TA

IS

KE
TR

AL
R

RA
AH
A
RB

TE

CA
AS

UN

N
A
SE
SD E

DO

PT
M

OL
AN

T
(M

AA

R
DO
M

AR

EW

IN
DA

EN
SU

PU
UM
NG

ND
IN
NG SI

PL

KL
PE
ILM

RI
LIM

NA
IN
M
E

M
ON
TI

TI

AG
HI
M

RO
AR
ED

NT
A

FI

LU
T
KE

IN

KU
SI

BA
ND

LL

.B
IT

SC

RE
EN

CO
AR

A
IS

UN

HI
D

HA
PT
LO

AL
ER

A
AR

LD
TR

R-
M

RG

CI
SA

KU
OD
TE
GO
PP

KH
A

CA
LD

IN
PT

IL
PT

PT
FE

IO

*
(registered certificate owners by year)

TOTAL 12%
Other (28)
6 The Use of Book & Claim RSPO’s 2015
SHARE CSPO Growth
88%
Interpretation Narrative

Top 20 Suppliers
The two graphs below illustrate the
number and value of annual certificate
sales between 2008 and 2014. The total
sales in value (USD) are steadily growing,
but differences are noticeable between
PO and Palm Kernel Oil (PKO) certificates
trade.
PKO certificate trading was introduced in
2010. While the numbers traded follow
the same development as palm oil, the
value of traded PKO certificates develops
rather differently. The data show a strong
growth in value traded from 2012 to
2013, sustained between 2013 and 2014.

Certificate trade for CSPO started in
2010. After a number of years marked by
impressive growth, both the number and
value of palm oil certificates sold have
levelled off or even decreased slowly
since they peaked in 2012.
Palm Kernel Expeller (PKE) certificates
were introduced in 2013, so no trade data
is available yet to make any meaningful
historical analysis.

CHART OF ANNUAL CERTIFICATED CHART OF ANNUAL CERTIFICATED

SALES, 2008-2014 (NUMBER OF SALES, 2008-2014 (VALUE USD$)
CERTIFICATES)

CPO CPO
PKO PKO
PKE PKE

29,925,934
2,962,256

2,928,810
2,504,404
1,659,516

10,939,082
9,736,909
8,844,201

8,179,703
842,619

6,589,597

5,432,240
519,053

487,477
369,564

2,490,945
269,665

2,225,078
245,813

1,427,069
950,220
82,464

198,090

205,440
66,240
4,452
3,520

6,636

4,225

5,522

6,338

8,283

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

RSPO’s 2015 CSPO Growth Interpretation Narrative The Use of Book & Claim 7
 GREENPALM: TOTAL PREMIUM GREENPALM: ANNUAL CERTIFICATE
Greenpalm:
Greenpalm: PAID (US$) (JAN-DEC)
Total Premium
Total Premium
Paid (US$)
Paid
(Jan-Dec)
(US$) (Jan-Dec) SALES (# CERTIFICATES)
Greenpalm:
Greenpalm:
Annual Certificate
Annual Certificate
Sales (# certificates)
Sales (# certificates)

d (US$) (Jan-Dec) Greenpalm: Annual Certificate Sales (# certificates)

29,925,934

29,925,934

2,962,256

2,962,256
2,928,810

2,928,810
29,925,934

2,962,256

2,928,810

2,504,404

2,504,404
2,504,404
CPO CPO CPO CPO
PKO PKO PKO PKO

1,659,516

1,659,516
CPO
PKE PKE PKE PKE
PKO

1,659,516
PKE
10,939,082

10,939,082
9,736,909

9,736,909
8,844,201

8,844,201
10,939,082

8,179,703

8,179,703

842,619

842,619
9,736,909

6,589,597

6,589,597
8,844,201

8,179,703

5,432,240

5,432,240
842,619

519,053

519,053
487,477

487,477
369,564

369,564
5,432,240

2,490,945

2,490,945
2,225,078

2,225,078

269,665

269,665
519,053
245,813

245,813
1,427,069

1,427,069

487,477
369,564
950,220

8,283 950,220
2,490,945

82,464

82,464
205,440

6,338 205,440
198,090

198,090

269,665
245,813
1,427,069

66,240

66,240

5,522

5,522
6,338

6,636 6,338
8,283

8,283

4,225

4,225
4,452
3,520

4,452
3,520
6,636

6,636
950,220

82,464

5,522
4,225
4,452
3,520

2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014 2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014

10 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Average Average
PremiumPremium
( US$/Certificate)
( US$/Certificate)
AVERAGE PREMIUM
(US$Premium
Average / CERTIFICATE)
( US$/Certificate) These three charts above illustrate total
premiums paid, the number of certificates
CPO CPO traded and the average premium paid per
61,39

61,39

PKO PKO certificate. While total (PO + PKO) premium

CPO paid is growing steadily, the total premium
61,39

PKE PKE
PKO paid for palm oil certificates seems to level
PKE off from 2013 to 2014.
44,49

44,49

This is the result of the average premium

44,49

for CSPO certificates, which decreased

30,96

30,96

substantially between 2008 and 2014 from

a high starting point of USD 44.5 to a mere
30,96

USD 1.85 in 2014. Again, the development

21,08

21,08
18,82

18,82

of the PKO certificates traded shows a very

7,82 21,08

different pattern, with the average premium

18,82

11,52

5,53 11,52

for PKO certificates dropping between 2008

9,05

9,05

7,82

6,74

2,766,74

and 2011, and rising again strongly between

11,52

5,53
5,29

5,29
3,89

3,89

2,76
9,05

2012 and 2014.

1,85

1,85
1,50

1,50
1,50

1,50
7,82

6,74
5,53
5,29

3,89

2,76

1,85
1,50

1,50

2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

8 The Use of Book & Claim RSPO’s 2015 CSPO Growth Interpretation Narrative
 The chart below shows the number of redeemed certificates by country (note that
the Y-axis is not linear). Notably, the number of certificates redeemed in Switzerland
is 5 times that in the USA. The explanation for this pattern may be that several
multinationals have their procurement offices registered in Switzerland.

GREENPALM REREEMED CERTIFICATES BY COUNTRY OF REGISTRATION

(TOTAL 2008 - 2014 FOR ALL MARKETS)
GREENPALM REDEEMED CERTIFICATES BY COUNTRY OF
Source: Book & Claim Ltd 2015
REGISTRATION (TOTAL 2008-2014 FOR ALL MARKETS)

(CERTIFICATES)
7,431,818
1,552,018
586,346
579,013
552,039
372,263
311,739
183,508
156,533

98,034
112,834
109,678
103,689
77,218
74,451
72,082
60,361
59,894
52,186
37,178
26,359
D

ER SA

AP S
E

RM K
FR NY
BE NCE

ST A
SW LIA

NM N
K
IA
EM SIA

NE DO N
ES

ZE SIA

RU D
FI SIA
HE ND

4)
NG D
OR

GE U

AR
AU HIN
AN

AN
DE DE

IN APA

(2
D
IU

AT
TH U
SI LAN

RA

OT LA
W NE
Y

S
IN
A

AB ALA
LG

E
RL

AL

RS
IR
C

N
ZE

M
IT
SW

NE

AR
ED
IT
UN

RSPO’s 2015 CSPO Growth Interpretation Narrative The Use of Book & Claim 9
5. Total Market Uptake

A
ll stakeholders in the value chain
have an important role to play in
reducing the net environmental
and social impact of the palm oil industry.
Here we summarise some of the key
contributions that these stakeholder
groups make to the consumption of more
sustainable palm oil.

4. Total Market Uptake, Sales CSPO through SG MB B&C

CSPO SALES (2008-2014) (TONNES)

1,281,134

2,490,526

3,479,415

4,513,273

5,349,666
343,857
4,452

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

CSPO sales through B&C CSPO sales through SG and MB* Total CSPO sales

The total sales of CSPO show an impressive growth. Total sales have grown tenfold, from 4.4k Mt in 2008 to
5.35m Mt in 2014. This is substantial growth in sales volumes, accounting for an increase of around 1m Mt
every year. The total sales of physical volumes through the segregated and mass balance supply chain models
grew steadily between 2008 and 2014, while the numbers for sales through B&C again seem to plateau or
even decrease slowly between 2013 and 2014.

From 2008 to 2014, the sales of physical volumes increased from 29% to 45% of total certified sales, and today
sales through the B&C model still represent more than 50% of total CSPO sales.

*For information on Segregated (SG) & Mass Balance (MB)

supply chains, visit www.rspo.org/certification/supply-chains

10 Total Market Uptake RSPO’s 2015 CSPO Growth Interpretation Narrative

6. Regional Market Uptake
W
hile on a global scale the market uptake
of CSPO is progressing steadily, there is a
substantial variance between regions. As
also reflected in the membership numbers by region,
Europe accounts for a significantly higher share of the
palm oil uptake compared to other regions.
To be able to allocate our resources most effectively,
RSPO is developing a more regional approach, based
on uptake targets for each region. For 2020, we aim
for Europe to have achieved 100% CSPO, Malaysia and
Indonesia both 50%, India 30% and China 10%. No
target has been set for the rest of the world (‘ROW’).
Below is a first attempt at calculating market uptake
for different regions.
If members’ commitments from their ACOP are fully
implemented, most regions are progressing well
towards the 2020 targets. Taking CSPO and CSPKO
combined, Europe is ahead of other regions, and
based on ACOP numbers is predicted to reach a little
below the 100% mark in 2020. Zooming in on CSPO,
in most regions retailers are progressing slower than
processors & traders or consumer goods manufacturers.
It is difficult to draw conclusions for CSPKO on account
of the lack of solid data.
A word of caution is needed here. While working on
this regional analysis of RSPO members’ Time Bound
Plans (TBP), we have found a number of irregularities
that negatively impact the quality of the data.
• not all members report supply chain volume detail,
even if they provide product totals;
• some TBPs suggest targets are met, while
substantial volumes have yet to shift to RSPO-
certified palm oil;
• gaps in reported data
RSPO’s 2015 CSPO Growth Interpretation Narrative
The calculations for this regional analysis are based
on assumptions.
• We took the total certified and uncertified volume
for each member and calculated the number of
years remaining to reach target 100% certified
(B&C or physical) based on stated TBP.
• We applied straight-line pro-rata allocation to the
remaining uncertified volume based on minimum
of (a) years remaining or (b) 6 years remaining
from 2015 to 2020, assuming zero growth in the
underlying market or company figures.
• Where no TBP was stated, a period of 20 years
was applied; where the TBP has been met while
uncertified volume still exists, all remaining volume
is assumed attained by 2020.
• Allocation of volumes to a region was based on
location of membership registration (while fully
aware this does not represent reality for many
companies).
• For each member, an assessment was done
based on: current share, regional target and their
projected share in 2020. For each member, a ‘status’
label is added to their projected performance, to
show whether they are ahead (leading) or behind
(lagging) the regional benchmark. Similarly, a label
of ‘target’ was added where a member has attained
100% target.
• Based on these status labels it is therefore
possible to provide a table of leaders
and laggards by category and by region.
Note that the regional targets are potentially misleading
as a single member with the lion’s share of the volume
for a given region could drive the results. Smaller
members will be masked by the performance of larger
players.
Clearly, for us to get a more reliable insight into regional
progress towards company TBPs and regional targets
defined by RSPO, we need to further discuss these
assumptions and improve data quality. For this reason,
the ACOP questionnaire for 2015 will be redesigned,
to include more regional data.
Total Market Uptake 11
COMBINED - PRIMARY + SECONDARY CATEGORY MEMBERS

REGIONAL UPTAKE BY RSPO MEMBERS

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FOR PHYSICAL PALM OIL1

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INDONESIA 13 6,484 50 6,434 5,013 5,063 1% 50% 78% AHEAD
3 477 1 476 476 477 0% 50% 100% TARGET MET
0 - - - - - ND 50% ND BEHIND
MALAYSIA 19 6,405 927 5,478 4,542 5,469 14% 50% 85% AHEAD
1 56 - 56 42 42 0% 50% 75% AHEAD
0 - - - - - ND 50% ND BEHIND
EUROPE 71 5,330 841 4,489 3,947 4,788 16% 100% 90% BEHIND
183 7,894 1,172 6,722 6,132 7,304 15% 100% 93% BEHIND
31 259 111 148 148 259 43% 100% 100% TARGET MET
APPLIED INDIA 7 986 - 986 732 732 0% 30% 74% AHEAD
TO ALL 2 43 - 43 24 24 0% 30% 55% AHEAD
PRODUCTS 0 - - - - - ND 30% ND BEHIND
COMBINED CHINA 2 69 13 56 37 50 19% 10% 73% AHEAD
(CPO+PKO+DRV) 3 24 0 24 22 22 0% 10% 93% AHEAD
0 - - - - - ND 10% ND BEHIND
REST OF 68 15,071 651 14,420 10,561 11,212 4% 0% 74% AHEAD
THE WORLD 40 2,387 209 2,178 2,045 2,254 9% 0% 94% AHEAD
0 181 22 159 158 179 12% 0% 99% AHEAD
INDONESIA 13 8,617 24 8,593 6,234 6,258 0% 50% 73% AHEAD
3 241 0 240 240 241 0% 50% 100% TARGET MET
0 - - - - - ND 50% ND BEHIND
MALAYSIA 19 3,588 689 2,899 2,776 3,465 19% 50% 97% AHEAD
1 14 - 14 10 10 0% 50% 75% AHEAD
0 - - - - - ND 50% ND BEHIND
EUROPE 71 2,632 491 2,141 1,830 2,321 19% 100% 88% BEHIND
183 4,579 666 3,913 3,382 4,048 15% 100% 88% BEHIND
31 195 75 120 120 195 38% 100% 100% TARGET MET

INDIA 7 522 - 522 353 353 0% 30% 68% AHEAD

APPLIED 2 - - - - - ND 30% ND BEHIND
CPO ONLY 0 - - - - - ND 30% ND BEHIND
CHINA 2 4 4 - - 4 100% 10% 100% TARGET MET
3 13 0 13 12 12 0% 10% 90% AHEAD
0 - - - - - ND 10% ND BEHIND
REST OF 68 6,483 225 6,258 4,873 5,097 3% 0% 79% AHEAD
THE WORLD 40 1,441 117 1,324 1,222 1,339 8% 0% 93% AHEAD
0 172 21 150 149 170 13% 0% 99% AHEAD
INDONESIA 13 659 15 643 420 435 2% 50% 66% AHEAD
3 9 - 9 9 9 0% 50% 100% TARGET MET
0 - - - - - ND 50% ND BEHIND
MALAYSIA 19 632 55 577 560 615 9% 50% 97% AHEAD
1 12 - 12 9 9 0% 50% 75% AHEAD
0 - - - - - ND 50% ND BEHIND
EUROPE 71 387 141 246 242 383 37% 100% 99% BEHIND
183 979 180 798 781 961 18% 100% 98% BEHIND
31 4 3 2 2 4 64% 100% 100% TARGET MET

INDIA 7 141 - 141 129 129 0% 30% 92% AHEAD

2 - - - - - ND 30% ND BEHIND
APPLIED 0 - - - - - ND 30% ND BEHIND
PKO ONLY
CHINA 2 11 1 10 7 8 12% 10% 71% AHEAD
3 - - - - - ND 10% ND BEHIND
0 - - - - - ND 10% ND BEHIND
REST OF 68 839 122 717 530 652 15% 0% 78% AHEAD
THE WORLD 40 462 56 405 392 448 12% 0% 97% AHEAD
0 3 0 2 2 2 9% 0% 91% AHEAD

1
Excludes Book & Claim 2
Certified and uncertified 3
MB+SG+IP (excluding B&C) 4
Based on ACOP data 5
Based on TBPs

12 Total Market&Uptake
Processors Traders Consumer Goods Manufacturers Retailers RSPO’s 2015 CSPO Growth Interpretation Narrative
7. Time Bound Plans

F
or the first time, an analysis has For instance, of the 210 consumer
been made of our downstream goods manufacturers who submitted
members’ TBPs towards 100% their 2014 ACOP, some 20 have brought
CSPO, as published in their ACOP. their deadlines forward, while 31 of 170
processors and traders submitting their
Our analysis shows that members 2014 ACOP have postponed their target
have made numerous changes to the years.
targetyear that they expect to reach
(the trade, sale or use of) 100% CSPO.

PERCENTAGE OF MEMBERS AIMING FOR 100% CERTIFICATION IN A GIVEN YEAR

Palm Oil Consumer

Palm Oil Processors Goods Retailers
Growers & Traders Manufacturers

100%
96%
94%
92% 92% 92%
89%

79%
75% 75%
72%
68%
65%
52%
55%
52% 54%
47%
44% 44%
42%
38% 36% 37%
33% 33%

26% 26%
22%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017

Reported in 2012 Reported in 2014 Reported in 2012 Reported in 2014 Reported in 2012 Reported in 2014 Reported in 2012 Reported in 2014

The graphs on the next page illustrate the shows targets postponed to a later year.
number of members who adjusted their These numbers are based on the number
target years compared to prior ACOPs. of members who submitted their 2014
The blue bar represents deadlines ACOP, not on total membership numbers.
brought forward, while the red bar

RSPO’s 2015 CSPO Growth Interpretation Narrative Time Bound Plans 13

 Looking at physical volumes only, most Processors & traders have brought their
members who have brought their TBPs deadlines forward with an aggregate of
forward are processors & traders, while 136 years, an average of 5.4 years for
Shift
most in Physical
members TBPs
postponing their target each given 25 ACOPs submitted in 2014.
years are consumer goods manufacturers.
How Many Members have adjusted
their TBPs from prior ACOP?
SHIFT IN PHYSICAL TBPs
How many members have adjusted their TBPs from prior ACOP?
Target Postponed Target Brought Forward
Target Postponed Target Brought Forward

Processors & Traders

25 25 Total
1 4 Indonesia

3 2 Malaysia

11 6 Europe

10 13 ROW

Consumer Goods Manufacturers

33 12 Total

0 0 Indonesia

0 0 Malaysia

27 8 Europe

6 4 ROW

Retailers

9 1 Total

0 0 Indonesia

0 0 Malaysia
Shift in Physical TBPs 6 1 Europe
Aggregate number of years3(+/-)
0 by ROW
Category and Region

Aggregate number of years (+/-) by Category and Region

Target Postponed
Target Postponed Target Brought Forward
Target Brought Forward

Processors & Traders

87 136 Total

2 5 Indonesia

7 18 Malaysia

42 46 Europe

36 67 ROW

Consumer Goods Manufacturers

113 64 Total
14 Time Bound Plans RSPO’s 2015 CSPO Growth Interpretation Narrative
0 0 Indonesia

0 0 Malaysia
 5
7 18 Malaysia

42 46 Europe

36 67 ROW

Consumer Goods Manufacturers

113 64 Total

0 0 Indonesia

0 0 Malaysia

91 53 Europe

22 11 ROW

Retailers

34 5 Total

0 0 Indonesia

0 0 Malaysia

20 5 Europe

14 0 ROW

Including B&C volumes in the analysis, 5 years, most changes are between 1
most members bringing their target and 3 years.
year forward are consumer goods
manufacturers, highlighting the RSPO will start a conversation with
importance of the B&C model in our members to explore the causes of
achieving their TBPs. these changes, and potential differences
between the edible oils and oleo-
Shift inanalysis
Overall, the RSPO TBPs
suggests (Incl B&C)
that more
TBPs have been postponed than brought
chemicals markets. We look forward to
learn what RSPO may be able to do to
How
forward. Many Members
Although numerous changeshave adjusted address any issues in the supply chain
their
have beenTBPs
made, thefrom prior
shifts seem modest: ACOP?
with some exceptions of changes above
and markets to further facilitate true
market transformation.

SHIFT IN RSPO TBPs (Include B&C)

How many members have adjusted their TBPs from prior ACOP?
Target Postponed Target Brought Forward
Target Postponed Target Brought Forward

Processors & Traders

31 13 Total

1 0 Indonesia

3 2 Malaysia

15 7 Europe

12 4 ROW

Consumer Goods Manufacturers

17 20 Total

0 0 Indonesia

0 0 Malaysia

12 15 Europe

5 5 ROW

Retailers
RSPO’s 2015 CSPO Growth Interpretation Narrative 2 2 Total
Time Bound Plans 15
0 0 Indonesia
 0 0
0 0 Malaysia

12 15 Europe

5 5 ROW

Retailers

2 2 Total

0 0 Indonesia

Shift in RSPO TBPs (Incl B&C)0 0 Malaysia

1 Europe
Aggregate number of years (+/-) 1
by
1 1 ROW
Category and Region

Aggregate number of years (+/-) by Category and Region

Target Postponed
Target Postponed Target
TargetBrought
BroughtForward
Forward

Processors & Traders

112 71 Total

3 0 Indonesia

12 16 Malaysia

57 43 Europe

40 12 ROW

Consumer Goods Manufacturers

49 46 Total

0 0 Indonesia

0 0 Malaysia

29 29 Europe

20 20 ROW

Retailers

5 7 Total

0 0 Indonesia

0 0 Malaysia

2 2 Europe

3 5 ROW

16 Time Bound Plans RSPO’s 2015 CSPO Growth Interpretation Narrative

8. Membership Development

99
T
he membership of RSPO has grown to 1,902
members by end 2014, with ordinary members
as the largest category.
1,021 Affiliate
Ordinary
Looking back, most growth in membership numbers
occurred between 2011-2012 and 2013-2014 (the numbers
for 2015 have been included up to end of April). Europe
has contributed most registered new members.
Membership development by type

GROWTH IN MEMBERSHIP (BY CATEGORY) 782

Associates

(MEMBERS)
1,000

2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
600 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

400

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RSPO’s 2015 CSPO Growth Interpretation Narrative Membership Development 17

 membership development by country 2014

16 Oceania
24 Africa 10 Canada
28 China 5 Other EMEA
40 India 5 PNG
The growth in membership seems to indicate a shift
down the supply chain: from considerable growth in new
42 Thailand
processor & trader members between 2008 and 2011, 70 Australia
and more new members from the consumer goods
manufacturer constituency between 2011 and 2014,
81 Americas
to most growth seen in supply chain associates from 92 Other Asia
2013 onwards. Supply chain associates represented
19% of new members joining in 2010, 43% of new
members joining in 2012, and 67% of new members 93 Indonesia
joining in 2015.

In 2014, most ordinary members were registered in 108 USA

Europe (566#), with Indonesia in second place (74#)
and USA in third (72#),with other Americas growing
since 2012 (64#). 110 Malaysia

1,178 Europe

GROWTH IN MEMBERSHIP (BY COUNTRY)

Membership development by country

(MEMBERS)
1,500

2004
2005
2006
2007
900 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

600

300

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18 Membership Development RSPO’s 2015 CSPO Membership

Growth Interpretation
Development
Narrative
9. Strategic Outlook
W
ith a good understanding of the achievements
and areas for improvement, RSPO can
develop and hone strategies to further
advance the cause of sustainable palm oil globally.
As demand for CSPO keeps growing, more and more
physical volumes will become available. The decrease
in the average premium for CSPO certificates between
2008 and 2014 suggests that buyers are shifting from
certificates to physical volumes. For the oleo-chemical
markets and other market segments using PK based
products and palm derivatives, less physical volumes
are available. The rise of the average premium for
PKO certificates from 2012 reflects the desire also
in these markets to claim a demand for sustainable
palm products.
This GIN includes a look at market uptake against
regional targets. For 2020, we aim for Europe to have
achieved 100% CSPO, Malaysia and Indonesia both
50%, India 30% and China 10%. No target has been
set for the rest of the world (‘ROW’). If commitments
from ACOP are fully implemented, most regions are
progressing well towards the 2020 targets. Taking
CSPO and CSPKO together, Europe is ahead of other
regions, and based on ACOP numbers is predicted to
reach a little below the 100% mark in 2020. In most
regions retailers seem less progressed than processors
& traders or consumer goods manufacturers.
Notes:
Difference between Annual Production Capacity, Supply and
Sales: Annual Production Capacity is the annualized volume
(mt) of CSPO or CSPK a producer capable of producing from its
RSPO certified sites. Supply of Certified Palm oil is calculated by
multiplying daily production capacity (mt) of certified sites by the
number of days the sites operate. Sales of Certified Palm Oil is
the volume of certified palm oil sold by producers, not product
sales to consumers.
As this analysis is based on data from submitted ACOPs, there are
limitations to it representing membership performance.
• The contents of the ACOP questionnaire and reports have
been changed in 2012, so not all data is available over the
full 2008-2014 period.
RSPO’s 2015 CSPO Growth Interpretation Narrative
Changes in TBPs analyzed in this GIN suggest members
experience hurdles in fulfilling earlier TBP commitments.
We need to better understand the background of these
changes, discuss these hurdles with our members, and
learn which measures are needed to further facilitate
market uptake.
We have seen tremendous developments in the palm
oil sector over the last few years. As part of this effort
to reinforce the credibility of RSPO standards, a new
version of the Principles & Criteria was introduced in
2013, after a thorough review process. At the same time,
new sustainability initiatives were introduced, aiming
to work on better maps or to formulate specific policies
on high carbon stock forests, fair labor conditions and
other issues.
The industry has to brace itself to adapt to the changing
landscape with emerging new expectations. There is
much capital that can be acquired and leveraged from
a
multi stakeholder organization such as the RSPO in
working towards true market transformation.
• The membership numbers are based on year of registration
of new members. The totals are a sum of all new members,
but do not show members leaving. Also, changes in
companies may have occurred over the years, for instance
in membership structure, ownership structure, or as a result
of take-overs or divestments.
• In recent years we have experienced a rise in the number
of estates (and corresponding production capacity) certified
under RSPO and other schemes, such as ISCC. Although
volumes produced by these double certified production
sources are counted as RSPO, the volumes sold under
competing schemes are not. This has a downward effect on
the market uptake numbers, even while the volumes are
sold as sustainable. This effect cannot be quantified as long
as ISCC does not publish sales volumes.
Strategic Outlook 19
 The RSPO is an international non-profit organization formed in 2004 with the
objective to promote the growth and use of sustainable oil palm products through
credible global standards and engagement of stakeholders.

www.rspo.org

RSPO SECREATRIAT SDN BHD

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