BREACH PREDICTOR EQUATIONS

Recently some statistically derived predictors for average breach width (b) and time of
failure (Tf ) have been developed by MacDonald and Langridge-Monopolis (1984) and
Froelich (1987, 1995). From Froelich's work in which he used the properties of 63 breaches
of dams ranging in height from 12 to 285 feet, with 6 dams greater than 100 feet, the
following predictor equations were obtained:

0.47
T f  0.59(Vs ) /( H 0.91 )
0 . 25
b  9 . 5 K o (V s H )

where,

b = average breach width (ft),

Tf = time of failure (hrs), only includes vertical erosion of dam
Ko = 0.7 for piping and 1.0 for overtopping failure
Vs = storage volume (ac-ft), and
H = height (ft) of water over breach bottom

BREACH WIDTH & TIME OF FAILURE FOR

Ponre-Ponre Dam-Overtoping failure Failure Mode : Overtopping

INPUT VARIABLES: OUTPUT PARAMETERS:

H = 164.21 ft b = 501.1 ft = 152.7 m

Vs = 47137.7 ac-ft Tf = 0.894 hrs
Ko = 1.0

DEVELOPED BY BRUCE HARRINGTON, 9/92, REVISED 10/96

NWS SIMPLE DAM BREAK EQUATION:
Ponre-Ponre Dam-Overtoping failure

Qb = Qo + 3.1 Br(C/(Tf + C/H1/2))3,

WHERE,

Qb = BREACH FLOW + NON-BREACH FLOW (cfs)

Qo = NON-BREACH FLOW (cfs)
Br = FINAL AVERAGE BREACH WIDTH (ft, APPROX. 1H TO 5H)
C = 23.4*As/Br
As = RESERVOIR SURFACE AREA (ac) AT MAXIMUM POOL LEVEL
H = SELECTED FAILURE DEPTH (ft) ABOVE FINAL BREACH ELEVATION
Tf = TIME TO FAILURE (hrs, USE H/120 OR A MINIMUM OF 10 MIN)

INPUT VARIABLES:

Qo = 19882 cfs
As = 817.35 ac
H = 164.21 ft

Note: Must enter Data on Brwidth Worksheet as well

OUTPUT VARIABLES:

SELECTED TIME MAXIMUM MAXIMUM

BREACH OF BREACH BREACH
WIDTHS FAILURE COMPUTED FLOW FLOW
Br, [ft] Tf, [hrs] C VALUE Qb,[cfs] Qb.[m3/s]

164.2 [H] 1.368 116.48 723,153.8 20,477.4

246.3 [1.5H] 1.368 77.65 892,145.3 25,262.7
328.4 [2H] 1.368 58.24 992,498.3 28,104.4
410.5 [2.5H] 1.368 46.59 1,046,892.6 29,644.6
492.6 [3H] 1.368 38.83 1,070,348.5 30,308.8
574.7 [3.5H] 1.368 33.28 1,072,965.9 30,383.0
656.8 [4.0H] 1.368 29.12 1,061,621.3 30,061.7
821.0 [5.0H] 1.368 23.30 1,014,511.6 28,727.7 <SELECTED FLOW
501.1 Froelich Eq 0.894 38.17 1,507,167.8 42,678.2
501.1 Froelich Eq 1.368 ---- 657,884.9 18,629.2 = Volume / Failure time (Vs/Tf)

DEVELOPED BY BRUCE HARRINGTON, 9/92, REVISED 10/96

27.25
SELECTED MAXIMUM
BREACH BREACH
WIDTHS FLOW
feet meter m3/dt
164.2 50.1 20,477.4 NWS SIMPLE DAM BREAK EQUATION:
246.3 75.1 25,262.7 NWS SIMPLE DAM BREAK EQUATION:
328.4 100.1 28,104.4 NWS SIMPLE DAM BREAK EQUATION:
410.5 125.1 29,644.6 NWS SIMPLE DAM BREAK EQUATION:
492.6 150.2 30,308.8 NWS SIMPLE DAM BREAK EQUATION:
574.7 175.2 30,383.0 NWS SIMPLE DAM BREAK EQUATION:
656.8 200.2 30,061.7 NWS SIMPLE DAM BREAK EQUATION:
821.0 250.3 28,727.7 NWS SIMPLE DAM BREAK EQUATION:
501.1 152.7 42,678.2 Froelich Eq
501.1 152.7 18,629.2 = Volume / Failure time (Vs/Tf)
 BREACH PREDICTOR EQUATIONS

Recently some statistically derived predictors for average breach width (b) and time of
failure (Tf ) have been developed by MacDonald and Langridge-Monopolis (1984) and
Froelich (1987, 1995). From Froelich's work in which he used the properties of 63 breaches
of dams ranging in height from 12 to 285 feet, with 6 dams greater than 100 feet, the
following predictor equations were obtained:

0.47
T f  0.59(Vs ) /( H 0.91 )
0 . 25
b  9 . 5 K o (V s H )

where,

b = average breach width (ft),

Tf = time of failure (hrs), only includes vertical erosion of dam
Ko = 0.7 for piping and 1.0 for overtopping failure
Vs = storage volume (ac-ft), and
H = height (ft) of water over breach bottom

BREACH WIDTH & TIME OF FAILURE FOR

Marangkayu Dam-Piping failure Failure Mode : Piping

INPUT VARIABLES: OUTPUT PARAMETERS:

H = 164.21 ft b = 350.8 ft = 106.9 m

Vs = 47137.7 ac-ft Tf = 0.894 hrs
Ko = 0.7

DEVELOPED BY BRUCE HARRINGTON, 9/92, REVISED 10/96

NWS SIMPLE DAM BREAK EQUATION:
Marangkayu Dam-Piping failure

Qb = Qo + 3.1 Br(C/(Tf + C/H1/2))3,

WHERE,

Qb = BREACH FLOW + NON-BREACH FLOW (cfs)

Qo = NON-BREACH FLOW (cfs)
Br = FINAL AVERAGE BREACH WIDTH (ft, APPROX. 1H TO 5H)
C = 23.4*As/Br
As = RESERVOIR SURFACE AREA (ac) AT MAXIMUM POOL LEVEL
H = SELECTED FAILURE DEPTH (ft) ABOVE FINAL BREACH ELEVATION
Tf = TIME TO FAILURE (hrs, USE H/120 OR A MINIMUM OF 10 MIN)

INPUT VARIABLES:

Qo = 19882 cfs
As = 817.35 ac
H = 164.2 ft

Note: Must enter Data on Brwidth Worksheet as well

OUTPUT VARIABLES:

SELECTED TIME MAXIMUM MAXIMUM

BREACH OF BREACH BREACH
WIDTHS FAILURE COMPUTED FLOW FLOW
Br, [ft] Tf, [hrs] C VALUE Qb,[cfs] Qb.[m3/s]

164.2 [H] 1.368 116.48 723,154 20,477

246.3 [1.5H] 1.368 77.65 892,145 25,263
328.4 [2H] 1.368 58.24 992,498 28,104
410.5 [2.5H] 1.368 46.59 1,046,893 29,645
492.6 [3H] 1.368 38.83 1,070,348 30,309
574.7 [3.5H] 1.368 33.28 1,072,966 30,383
656.8 [4.0H] 1.368 29.12 1,061,621 30,062
821.0 [5.0H] 1.368 23.30 1,014,512 28,728
350.8 Froelich Eq 0.894 54.53 1,311,100 37,126
350.8 Froelich Eq 1.368 ---- 657,885 18,629 = Volume / Failure time (Vs/Tf)

DEVELOPED BY BRUCE HARRINGTON, 9/92, REVISED 10/96

SELECTED MAXIMUM
BREACH BREACH
WIDTHS FLOW
feet meter m3/dt
164.2 50.1 20,477.4 NWS SIMPLE DAM BREAK EQUATION:
246.3 75.1 25,262.7 NWS SIMPLE DAM BREAK EQUATION:
328.4 100.1 28,104.4 NWS SIMPLE DAM BREAK EQUATION:
410.5 125.1 29,644.6 NWS SIMPLE DAM BREAK EQUATION:
492.6 150.2 30,308.8 NWS SIMPLE DAM BREAK EQUATION:
574.7 175.2 30,383.0 NWS SIMPLE DAM BREAK EQUATION:
656.8 200.2 30,061.7 NWS SIMPLE DAM BREAK EQUATION:
821.0 250.3 28,727.7 NWS SIMPLE DAM BREAK EQUATION:
350.8 106.9 37,126.2 Froelich Eq
350.8 106.9 18,629.2 = Volume / Failure time (Vs/Tf)

PERBEDAAN HASILOVERTOPPING DAN PIPING DENGAN FROELICH EQ.

SELECTED TIME MAXIMUM

FAILURE MODE BREACH OF BREACH
WIDTHS FAILURE FLOW
Br, [m] Tf, [hrs] Qb.[m3/s]
Overtopping 50.05 - 152.8 1.368 - 0.894 20477.5 - 42678.2
Piping 50.05 - 107 1.368 - 0.894 20477.5 - 37126.2
DASAR PENETAPAN PARAMETER REKAHAN DAM PONRE PONRE

╔══════════════════RESERVOIR AND BREACH D═══(C)1988 ### BOSS═╗

║ Dasar Penetapan :
║ Reservoir Initial Water Surface Elevation (m MSL) : 216 ║ Crest spillway
║ Bottom of Dam Elevation (m MSL) : 165.6 ║
║ Top of Dam Crest Elevation (m MSL) : 220.5 ║ Exclude parapet
║ Water Surface Elevation at Time of Breach (m MSL) : 219.78 ║ El. Q PMF
║ Piping Failure Centerline Elevation (m MSL) : 192.33 ║ El. Dasar intake
║ Final Breach Side Slope 1 : 0 ║
║ Final Breach Bottom Elevation (m MSL) : 177 ║ El. Dasar upstream dam
║ Final Breach Base Width (m) : 20 ║Beberapa kali lebar monolit (0.3m) atau 0.5 - 4 tinggi dam
║ Time of Breach Formation (hr) : 1.4 ║ 0.5 - 4 jam
║ Spillway Breach (Yes/No) : NO ║
║ ║
╚═════════════════════════════════════ ══════════════════╝
DamFile: 01-PN km: 0
Keterangan :
- Final Breach Bottom Elevation (m MSL) = 177, berdasarkan rata-rata elevasi dasar upstream bendungan, terutama
di sudut pertemuan tubuh dam dengan perkuatan tanah.
- Final Breach Base Width (m) = 20 m, berdasarkan range tebal monolit (0,3m) s/d 0.5 tinggi dam (0.5 x 55m)
- Time of Breach Formation (hr) = 1.4, berdasarkan manual BOSS (0.5 - 4 jam)
- Piping Failure Centerline Elevation (m MSL) = 192.33, berdasarkan piping pada elevasi intake.
- Water Surface Elevation at Time of Breach (m MSL) = 219.78, berdasarkan muka air tertinggi waduk pada Q PMF

DEBIT PERTEMUAN DI SUNGAI WALANAE

Berdasarkan data debit 15 harian Sistem Sungai Walanae, dari debit pengamatan dan hasil perhitungan.
Ditetapkan menggunakan debit maksimum sungai walanae yang mungkin terjadi yaitu 155,6 m3/dt.

Debit 15 harian rata-rata Sistem Sungai Walanae (Long term observed)

(ref : Cabenge Water Level Gauging Station, tahun 1980 s/d 2001)

Deskripsi Kode DPS Januari Februari Maret April Mei Juni Juli Agustus September Oktober Nopember Desember
Sub Basin (Km2) I II I II I II I II I II I II I II I II I II I II I II I II
Pengamatan Rata-rata WB-01 101.0 115.6 125.4 114.5 113.2 89.9 111.0 105.1 132.0 123.0 146.2 104.7 119.1 78.7 48.8 37.6 26.6 16.2 18.5 19.4 28.1 42.9 97.3 115.7
Maksimum s/d 2,837 274.0 375.2 468.0 274.0 415.9 235.1 237.0 271.5 239.4 343.0 365.5 348.9 332.9 283.8 261.3 217.0 158.2 47.4 71.5 65.3 202.6 161.2 253.5 469.9
Minimum WB-04 12.7 16.0 18.7 24.3 27.4 31.5 27.9 29.7 22.7 16.1 11.0 14.2 14.8 11.6 2.0 5.4 5.0 4.1 3.7 3.1 2.7 4.3 3.7 13.0
WB-01 s/d
Hasil Perhitungan 3,170 108.0 125.6 138.9 130.0 125.1 99.6 132.5 120.6 144.4 129.1 155.6 134.0 150.0 105.2 78.9 60.6 52.0 44.7 41.1 42.5 51.8 74.7 108.5 119.8
WB-05
Hasil Perhitungan WB-05 336 12.8 11.0 15.7 12.0 12.6 11.9 12.2 13.3 17.1 17.3 17.1 14.5 15.7 15.1 10.5 7.3 6.2 4.8 4.1 5.8 5.9 6.0 14.6 14.5

Keterangan :
WB-05 : S. Walanae confluence
(Pertemuan S. Walanae dengan S. Tinco)