Stanford University E105

A. Emami

Winter 2021

HO#10

EPIDEMIC MODELING CASE STUDY

1. A simple model of an epidemic is the SIR model developed in 1927. It divides the population N
into three groups:

S(t): is the number of those individuals susceptible but not yet infected with the disease,

I(t): is the number of infectious individuals,

R(t): is the number of individuals who have recovered from the disease and now have
immunity to it or have died,

t: time measured in days.

The third order nonlinear model is given by the differential equations:

dS 
= − SI
dt N
dI 
= + SI −  I
dt N
dR
= + I
dt
where

β / N = the effective contact rate of the disease = 0.0002,

ϒ = the mean recovery rate = 0.04,

S(0) = 990.

I(0) = 10.

R(0) = 0.

(a) Draw a block diagram for this system.

(b) Prove that the total population (N) is a constant.
(c) Simulate this system in Simulink. Over plot S(t), I(t), and R(t) as a function of time for 210
days.
(d) Draw phase portrait (I vertical axis, S horizontal axis) of the system for the given I(0) and
S(0). Vary I(0) and S(0) to obtain the complete phase portraits with R(0) = 0. What are the
prominent features of the phase trajectories?
(e) Prove that the model of the system can be reduced to a second-order system.
(f) Prove that the model of the system can be reduced to a first-order system.
(g) Find the equilibrium points for this system (S*, I*):
dS
= 0,
dt
dI
= 0.
dt

(h) Linearize the system about the equilibrium points (see FPE8e page 666).
(i) Compute the eigenvalues (poles) of the linear system. Under what conditions is the system
stable?
(j) Compute all the eigenvectors of the system (including the extreme case of ϒ=0).
(k) Superimpose the eigenvectors on the phase portraits of part (d). Explain the behavior of the
system in terms of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors.
(l) Find an analytical solution for S(t) in terms of R(t).
(m) Find an analytical expression that relates I(t) to S(t).
(n) Find an analytical expression for I(t) at its apex, Imax.
(o) Compute an approximate doubling time for I(t).
(p) Find an approximate analytical expression for R(t).
(q) Display I(t) with a logarithmic vertical axis. Does that add any more insight into the behavior
of the system?
(r) How would you “flatten the curve”?