Given:

The project described below is scheduled to be completed in 11 weeks.

Standard
Path Activity Mean Deviation
A C 4 0.70
D 6 0.90

B E 3 0.62
F 9 1.90

a. If you were the manager of this project, would you be concerned? Explain.

Probability (T ≤ 11 weeks):

Specified time−Path mean

z=
Path standard deviation

Path A:
Expected duration = 4 + 6 = 10
Standard deviation:
We must find the variance of the path first by squaring the individual standard deviations to
find the variance for each activity, add the variances, and take the square root of the sum.
Variance = 0.702 +0.90 2=0.490+0.810=1.300
Standard deviation = √ 1.300=1.140

11−10
z= =0.88
1.140
Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion ≤ 11 weeks = 0.8106

Path B:
Expected duration = 3 + 9 = 12
Standard deviation:
We must find the variance of the path first by squaring the individual standard deviations to
find the variance for each activity, add the variances, and take the square root of the sum.
Variance = 0.622 +1.902=0.384 +3.610=3.994
Standard deviation = √ 3.994=1.998

11−12
z= =−0.50
1.998
Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion ≤ 11 weeks = 0.3085

Conclusion: Probability (T ≤ 11 weeks) = 0.8106 x 0.3085 = 0.2501. The manager should be

concerned because there is only a 0.2501 probability of finishing on time.
Given:
Standard
Path Activity Mean Deviation
A C 5 1.3
D 4 1.0

B E 8 1.6

Probability (T > 10 weeks):

Specified time−Path mean

z=
Path standard deviation

Path A:
Expected duration = 5 + 4 = 9
Standard deviation:
We must find the variance of the path first by squaring the individual standard deviations to find
the variance for each activity, add the variances, and take the square root of the sum.
Variance = 1.32 +1.02=1.690+1.000=2.690
Standard deviation = √ 2.690=1.640

10−9
z= =0.61
1.640

Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion ≤ 10 weeks = 0.7291

Path B:
Expected duration = 8
Standard deviation = 1.600

10−8
z= =1.25
1.600
Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion ≤ 10 weeks = 0.8944