hrb227 | “Reliable knowledge can lack certainty.

” Explore this claim with reference to two areas of

knowledge.

“Reliable knowledge can lack certainty.” Explore this claim with reference to two areas
of knowledge.

Exam session November 2020

Personal code: hrb227

Word count: 1594 words

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 hrb227 | “Reliable knowledge can lack certainty.” Explore this claim with reference to two areas of
knowledge.

Title 6- “Reliable knowledge can lack certainty.” Explore this claim with reference to two
areas of knowledge.

In this ever-evolving world, uncertainty is the inevitable accomplice of any

knowledge. This title prompts a discussion surrounding the differences between knowledge

that is considered ‘reliable’ and knowledge that is considered ‘certain’. I believe that reliable

knowledge has to be subjectively defined with regards to different Areas of Knowledge,

although it can broadly be outlined as knowledge that is trustworthy and credible. For

instance, in the Natural Sciences, knowledge is gained through methodology such as

measurements and observations following experimentation, and ways of knowing such as

reason. Knowledge in the Natural Sciences is hence deemed reliable if the observations and

measurements from an experiment are consistent within replications of its methodology. In

areas such as History, knowledge is derived from available primary and/or secondary sources

regarding the past. There tends to be a degree of unreliability in these narrations, as they may

be clouded by biases, poor memory, etc. Hence, historical theories are often shaped through

ways of knowing such as imagination and reason. The definition of a reliable historical

source is deeply analysed through the type, credibility, language, etc. Certainty, however,

has one relatively undisputed definition across all Areas of Knowledge. For knowledge to be

certain implies that it is absolute, and not subject to change or influence by new knowledge.

Because I believe that no knowledge can be absolutely certain, I agree with the title. The

AOKs I will be exploring are the Natural Sciences and History. Looking at Natural Sciences

with relation to this title will allow me to contrast this more scientific Area of Knowledge

with History, a more humanities-based Area of Knowledge. Looking at these two areas of

knowledge, it will be interesting to see whether it is possible to reach full certainty in these

fields, especially with their striking differences.

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knowledge.

Knowledge as it exists will never have complete certainty to it, as all knowledge

presents, along with it, an element of uncertainty. In History, primary and secondary sources

are extensively examined for reliability, as it is crucial in developing a whole picture as close

to the truth of our historical past. Historians use a variety of frameworks to determine the

reliability of historical sources. These tend to typically include examining factors surrounding

the source, including when the source originated, the reason for creation, who produced it,

whether it is an original or copy, logical, damaged, corroborated or contradicted. (Note,

2017). However, personal biases often surface in recounts of historical events. For instance,

up until 2018, Japanese history textbooks provided very biased accounts of the nation’s

actions during World War II, purposefully neglecting any mention of the Nanjing Massacre

in China of 1937, which resulted in hundreds of thousands of murders, and up to 80.000

counts of sexual assault (Onion, Sullivan, Mullen, 2017). History textbooks are generally

considered to be reliable sources of historical knowledge, as they are peer-reviewed and

written by professionals and academics. These Japanese history textbooks were the only

resources and truth available for the Japanese public regarding the events, would hence be

deemed reliable. However, this reliable knowledge would lack certainty, as the information

can be disputed, and is very much subject to change by new knowledge. Therefore, it is

evident that the knowledge of the Japanese students regarding WWII would have been

considered reliable, although it lacks certainty. Therefore, it is evident that even knowledge

considered reliable is subject to uncertainty and change, and hence there the reliability of

knowledge does not assure its certainty.

However, it can be argued that there may be some knowledge which exists in

complete, undisputable certainty. Upon consideration, I realised that there is knowledge that

remains certain, although only to the knower. The knowledge is subjective- it may be certain

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knowledge.

to an individual knower, even whilst other knowers doubt its certainty. This type of

knowledge is often acquired through more personal ways of knowing such as emotion. My

grandma suffers from Alzheimer’s disease, and as it is in its later stages, she has trouble

remembering people, including her family members at times. This causes her to sometimes

react with fear when approached by family, as she would have no recollection of the person,

and sees them as a stranger in her home. Her knowledge that the person is a stranger would

be considered both reliable and certain in her personal lens, through her personal ways of

knowing such as reason and sense perception, as it is both trustworthy and undisputable, and

hence her fearful reaction is justified. However, through other knower’s perspective, this

knowledge lacks both reliability and certainty, as it is unreliable due her deteriorating mental

state, and uncertain as other knowers have access to other knowledge which invalidates her

fearful response towards family members. Hence, it can be said that certain knowledge does

exist, though the perception of certainty falls on the knower themselves, and this certainty

may not exist outside of the knower’s personal knowledge.

Furthermore, the knowledge in Natural Sciences is mostly constructed through

experimentation and observation, which, whilst stemming from reliable sources, can often

produce superficial and oversimplified scientific knowledge and hence lack certainty. Johann

Meckel and Antoine Serres proposed that organisms pass through the stages of ‘lesser beings’

such as fish, amphibians, birds and reptiles in embryonic development. Meckel observed that

malformed organs in human embryonic development closely mirrored the fully formed

organs of ‘lower’ life forms. Serres similarly observed that the human brain develops through

stages, in which it takes on the form of the brain of a fish, followed by a bird, a reptile, and

finally a mammal, before assuming the form of a human form. Thus, through deductive

reasoning, they theorised that organisms develop in order of “lesser” to “higher” beings as

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knowledge.

embryos. This theory remained in favour throughout much of the early 1800s and was

considered reliable due to the high credibility of these scientists and the consistency of their

observations. However, deductive reasoning spurred Charles Darwin to present an ‘upgraded’

theory in 1859- the theory of common descent became more prominent, and similar features

in embryonic development were attributed to shared ancestors with other organisms instead

of progressing through “lesser” stages in embryonic development (O’Connell, 2013). This

provides further evidence that knowledge considered reliable can be uncertain when it is not

utilised correctly and produces superficial scientific claims. In this case, the theory was

simply a distorted version of the truth, and in that sense, is considered uncertain, as new

knowledge prompted changes to this theory. Thus, uncertainty is an inevitable companion to

all knowledge, even when knowledge is considered reliable.

Conversely, knowledge may be considered both reliable and certain for lack of new

knowledge disproving the current knowledge. In History, an element of uncertainty is

generally attributed to all historical recounts of events. However, as per the definition of

certainty, most historical knowledge may be treated as certain for lack of new knowledge

refuting existing historical theories. This applies to any recorded historical event, such as the

fall of the Aztec Empire. Cortés and his men held the city siege for 93 days, and the foreign

pathogens and advanced weaponry of the Spaniards soon wiped out the Aztec population and

allowed for the capture of the Aztec capital city, Tenochtitlán (Hudson, 2019). This

knowledge is accepted as reliable, as it is corroborated and cross-referenced by multiple

historians and historical sources. It is plausible that there may be inconsistencies in this story,

as it was likely narrated from the perspective of the conquistadors, and gained through

intangible methods such as memory and faith, it hence presents an element of bias, but there

is no knowledge present currently to contradict it. Therefore, the possibility that this

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knowledge.

knowledge may be uncertain is disregarded and is treated as certain until new knowledge

suggesting otherwise surfaces. In this case, reliable historical knowledge from reputable

primary and secondary sources is accepted as certain, as it remains undisputed, and therefore

an obtainable truth. We cannot ever ‘prove’ this event occurred and thus this knowledge will

never be absolutely certain. As there is no evidence that indicates otherwise, we can only take

the knowledge we have at face value and thus reliable knowledge equates to certain

knowledge.

In conclusion, my initial stance has mostly remained the same, although I have taken into

consideration alternative perspectives through the explorations in the counterclaim. I

acknowledge that limitations are present with regards to this exploration of the title. Firstly,

this conclusion is based entirely upon my personal knowledge, and different knowers would

have different experience and knowledge, and hence different interpretations of the title.

Secondly, this discussion is limited to the constraints of my personal definitions of reliability

and certainty, and hence if the terms were defined differently, different conclusions may have

been reached. My conclusions were also reached through the assumption that all reliable

knowledge resides in the Natural Sciences and History. Through investigating History as an

AOK, it is evident that historical knowledge can never be completely certain, only treated as

such for lack of contradictory knowledge. Knowledge in the Natural Sciences also presents

an element of uncertainty, as theories are ever evolving and changing. Overall, with response

to the initial title, I believe that reliable knowledge can lack certainty, with the exception of

knowledge that is completely certain to the knower, and knowledge that must be considered

certain due to insufficient scientific/technological advances. This concept has several real-life

implications, as it encourages knowers to keep pondering, and hesitate before accepting

anything as certain. Ultimately, I believe that the beauty of knowledge lies in its vast expanse,

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knowledge.

the knowledge that nothing can be certain is what drives mankind’s ever-ongoing search for

the truths of our world.

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knowledge.

REFERENCES

Cartwright, M. (2016). Cortes and the fall of the Aztec empire. Retrieved 14th May 2020

from Ancient History Encyclopedia: https://www.ancient.eu/article/916/cortes--the-

fall-of-the-aztec-empire/.

Hudson, M. (2019). The battle of Tenochtitlán. Retrieved 14th May 2020 from Britannica:

https://www.britannica.com/event/Battle-of-Tenochtitlan.

Note, M. (2017). 9 ways to verify primary source reliability. Retrieved 13th May 2020 from

https://www.margotnote.com/blog/2017/5/2/9-ways-to-verify-primary-source-

reliability.

O’Connell, L. (2013). The Meckel-Serres conception of recapitulation. Retrieved 14th May

2020 from the Embryo Project Encyclopaedia: https://embryo.asu.edu/pages/meckel-

serres-conception-recapitulation.

Onion, A., Sullivan, M., Mullen, M.. (2019). Nanking massacre. Retrieved 13th May 2020

from https://www.history.com/topics/japan/nanjing-massacre.