Vietnam Autos Report Q1 2019

Q1 2019
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Vietnam
Aut
utos
os R
Report
eport
Includes 10-year forecasts to 2027
Vietnam Autos Report | Q1 2019
Contents
Key View............................................................................................................................................................................................ 4
SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5
Autos SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Industry Forecast........................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Industry Forecast Scenario....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Passenger Vehicles ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................10
Commercial Vehicles ................................................................................................................................................................................................................12
Industry Risk/Reward Index ....................................................................................................................................................14

Asia Autos Production Risk/Reward Index.......................................................................................................................................................................14
Asia Auto Sales Risk/Reward Index .....................................................................................................................................................................................21
Vietnam Autos Sales Risk/Reward Index ..........................................................................................................................................................................30
Vietnam Autos Production Risk/Reward Index..............................................................................................................................................................32
Company Profile...........................................................................................................................................................................34
Toyota Motor ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................34
Truong Hai Auto Corporation (Thaco) ................................................................................................................................................................................35
Regional Overview.......................................................................................................................................................................36
Asia Autos Overview..................................................................................................................................................................................................................36
Vietnam Demographic Outlook ..............................................................................................................................................38
Autos Methodology.....................................................................................................................................................................41
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Key View
Key View: We expect new vehicle sales in Vietnam to pick up in 2019 as vehicle importers and distributors increasingly adjust
to government regulations surrounding the quality, technical safety and emissions standards for automobiles entering the
country.This will therefore lead to an uptick in the volume of cheaper vehicles from neighbouring ASEAN countries entering the
Vietnamese market. Given this, we forecast growth of 19.9% in total new vehicle sales in Vietnam in 2019.
Passenger Car And Commercial Vehicle Sales

(2016-2027)
f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: VAMA, Fitch Solutions
Key Views
• We forecast growth of 19.9% in total new vehicle sales in Vietnam in 2019.

• As vehicle importers and distributors increasingly adjust to strict government regulations surrounding the quality, technical
safety and emissions standards for vehicles entering the country, we expect auto sales to pick up in 2019.
• Robust growth in fixed investment will drive spending on new light commercial vehicles.
• A strong expansion in Vietnam's construction sector will drive domestic demand for heavy trucks.
• Robust growth in the tourism sector will bode well for bus sales.
• Duty-free access to completely built-up units from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations member countries will pose a risk
to vehicle manufacturing in Vietnam, as automakers may decide to switch strategies away from domestic production towards
vehicle importation.
SWOT
Autos SWOT
SWOT Analysis
Strengths • Labour costs are low.
• Historically low interest rates continue to feed into attractive auto financing rates.
• There is strong demand for sub-compact and compact cars.
• There is growing medium-term demand for luxury brands.
Weaknesses • A lack of production incentives hinders the automotive sector's potential.

• Low localisation rates make it a relatively expensive location for foreign carmakers to manufacture cars.
• The road network is underdeveloped.
• High taxes are a barrier to new vehicle ownership.
Opportunities • The reduction of tariffs to 0% on completely built-up (CBU) vehicle imports from the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), at the time of writing, will give automakers a further chance to increase
their domestic sales through imports.
• Smaller cars should experience stronger sales growth, as they benefit from greater tax cuts.
• Recent investments by PSA and Hyundai in local manufacturing have improved the near-term production
outlook.
Threats • The elimination of import tariffs from ASEAN member states in 2018 will undermine domestic vehicle
manufacturing.
• Rising traffic congestion presents an obstacle to new car sales.
• Any renewed slowdown in the Vietnamese economy would, by extension, lead to a fall in new vehicle sales.
Industry Forecast
Industry Forecast Scenario
Key View: We forecast growth of 19.9% in vehicle sales in Vietnam in 2019 as vehicle importers and distributors increasingly adjust
to government regulations surrounding the quality, technical safety and emissions standards for automobiles entering the country.
AUTOS TOTAL MARKET - HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS (VIETNAM 2016-2027)

Indicator 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f
Vehicle
production, 236,161 195,937 201,804 207,481 215,031 221,762 229,685 238,239 245,240 252,132 260,556 269,385
units
Vehicle
production, 37.5 -17.0 3.0 2.8 3.6 3.1 3.6 3.7 2.9 2.8 3.3 3.4
units, % y-o-y
Vehicle sales,
258,528 240,453 268,485 322,001 393,134 467,226 537,551 598,681 656,795 704,857 748,464 794,610
units
Vehicle sales,
30.2 -7.0 11.7 19.9 22.1 18.8 15.1 11.4 9.7 7.3 6.2 6.2
units, % y-o-y
f = Fitch Solutions. Source: AAF, VAMA, Fitch Solutions
Latest Developments
• Total vehicle sales up 0.01% y-o-y in the first eight months of 2018. Total vehicle production up 1.0% y-o-y in the first eight
months of 2018. Motor vehicle imports down 56.1% y-o-y in the first eight months of 2018.
• We forecast growth of 19.9% in total new vehicle sales in Vietnam in 2019.
• We expect new vehicle sales in Vietnam to pick up in 2019 as vehicle importers and distributors increasingly adjust
to government regulations surrounding the quality, technical safety and emissions standards for automobiles entering the
country.
• The elimination of tariffs on automobiles imported from Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries will
pose a risk to the development of the local autos manufacturing industry, as automakers producing in Vietnam look to take
advantage of the cost-effectiveness of importing vehicles.
Structural Trends
Sales
We expect new vehicle sales in Vietnam to pick up in 2019 as vehicle importers and distributors increasingly adjust to government
regulations surrounding the quality, technical safety and emissions standards for automobiles entering the country.This will
therefore lead to an uptick in the volume of cheaper vehicles from neighbouring ASEAN countries entering the Vietnamese market.
Given this, we forecast growth of 19.9% in total new vehicle sales in Vietnam in 2019. Breaking this down further, we expect growth
of 25.7% in new passenger car sales while total commercial vehicle (CV) sales rise by 9.8% in 2019.
Sales To Pick Up In 2019

Vietnam - Vehicle Sales By Segment, Units
We believe that as vehicle imports and distributors increasingly adjust to regulatory changes surrounding the importation of
vehicles in Vietnam, we will see sales pick up in 2019. The Vietnamese government's Decree 116, which was introduced on January
1 2018 following the elimination of tariffs on completely built-up (CBU) units imported from ASEAN nations, set strict
measures surrounding the quality, technical safety and emissions standards for vehicles entering the country.It requires
vehicle importers in Vietnam to obtain a Vehicle Type Approval (VTA) certification from authorities in the exporting countries, which
details the imported vehicles’ quality, safety and environmental protection. Once the vehicles arrive in Vietnam, a sample is selected
from every batch of imports to run tests for emission, quality and technical safety. The inspection is repeated shipment after
shipment even if it is the same car model.
These stringent requirements have created additional costs for auto importers and delays at ports and resulted in automakers in
neighboring Southeast Asian countries, notably Thailand and Indonesia, suspending exports to Vietnam. As a result, importers in
Vietnam have not had enough vehicles to meet domestic demand. This tough regulation led to a 56.1% y-o-y fall in motor vehicle
imports in the first eight months of 2018. That being said, there are early signs that auto importers are starting to meet these tough
regulations, with motor vehicle imports having risen since June 2018 (see chart below).
We believe that this trend will continue over the coming months and expect auto sales to rise in 2019 as cheaper vehicles from
neighbouring ASEAN countries (as a result of the removal of tariffs on vehicles coming from these nations), enter the
Vietnamese market to meet pent-up demand.Due to low localisation rates and high production costs, the price of Vietnamese-
made cars can be nearly 20% higher than in other ASEAN member countries. We therefore believe that consumers in Vietnam will
benefit from lower prices and more model choice when compared with the current product mix of mostly locally assembled
vehicles. In turn, this will drive up demand in the local autos market.
Imports Starting To Recover

Vietnam - Motor Vehicle Imports, Units
Source: General Department of Vietnam Customs, Fitch Solutions
We believe that Vietnam's positive economic outlook will remain supportive of growth in auto sales in the country over the coming
quarters. We expect continued efforts by the government to liberalise the economy to underpin robust growth in the export-
oriented manufacturing and construction sectors, while the services sector will also benefit from higher tourist arrivals. Given this,
our Country Risk team forecasts real GDP growth to come in at 6.5% in 2019. We expect this favourable economic environment to
help encourage growth in spending by households, reflected in our forecast for private consumption to grow by 6.8% in
2019, which will translate into robust vehicle demand.
Infrastructure, Investment And Tourism To Support CV Sales
We expect the removal of tariffs on vehicle imports from ASEAN member states as well as positive outlooks for Vietnam's
construction and tourism industries will help drive growth in CV demand domestically. As a result, we forecast growth of 9.8% in new
CV sales in 2019.
Our Country Risk team expects Vietnam's stable political environment and policy continuity to help bolster business confidence in
the country. This is reflected in our forecast for fixed capital formation - a useful proxy for business investment - to grow by 8.0% in
2019. We believe that the country's improving business environment will translate into capital expenditure by firms on new CV
purchases, particularly light CVs, required in their day-to-day operations.
CV Sales To Be Driven By Infrastructure, Investment And Tourism

Vietnam - Commercial Vehicle Sales, Units
Further supporting our positive outlook for Vietnam's CV segment in 2018 will be a booming tourism sector. The country's tourism
industry saw international tourist arrivals grow by 22.9% in the first nine months of 2018. Over the coming quarters, we believe that
the government's efforts to boost the tourism sector through a combination of measures such as aggressive marketing campaigns,
visa exemptions and ease of custom procedures will continue to pay off. Our Tourism team forecasts growth of 20.5% in total
arrivals to Vietnam in 2019, which we believe will bode well for a rise in bus and coach demand from tourism companies based in
the country.
We expect sales of heavy trucks in Vietnam to be driven by a favourable outlook for the country's construction sector. Our
Infrastructure team expects Vietnam's construction industry to grow by 7.2% in real terms in 2019 as the strengthening economy
supports fiscal expenditure and attracts foreign and private investment in real estate and infrastructure.The commencement of
these infrastructure projects will create a supportive market for growing demand for heavy trucks to meet the logistical
requirements of heavy industries in the country.
Tariff Elimination A Threat To Local Production
We forecast total vehicle production in Vietnam to grow by 2.8% in 2019. Breaking this down, we expect passenger car production
to grow by 2.7%, while CV output expands by 3.0%. We believe that the elimination of tariffs on CBUs imported from ASEAN
member countries will pose a risk to vehicle manufacturing in Vietnam, as automakers may decide to switch strategies away from
domestic production towards vehicle importation. The cost of vehicle production in Vietnam is around 20% higher than that of
other regional countries due to its reliance on imported parts. The localisation rate in car manufacturing in Vietnam is 20-40% due
to an underdeveloped supplier network, which compares poorly to neighbouring Thailand, at 80-90%. We believe that automakers
producing in Vietnam will look to take advantage of the cost-effectiveness of importing CBUs instead of investing in domestic
manufacturing lines. This poses a threat to the long-term development of the local automotive industry, which will pose a downside
risk to our vehicle production forecast.
Passenger Vehicles
Key View: We forecast growth of 25.7% in new passenger car sales in Vietnam in 2019 as vehicle importers and distributors
increasingly adjust to government regulations surrounding the quality, technical safety and emissions standards for automobiles
entering the country. This will therefore result in an uptick in the volume of cheaper cars from neighbouring ASEAN countries (as a
result of the removal of tariffs on cars coming from these nations) entering the Vietnamese market.
VIETNAM PASSENGER CAR MARKET - HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS

Passenger car
production, 145,571 112,733 125,922 133,981 141,752 150,399 159,574 168,669 177,103 187,021 199,925 213,320
units
Passenger car
production, 47.0 -22.6 11.7 6.4 5.8 6.1 6.1 5.7 5.0 5.6 6.9 6.7
units, % y-o-y
Passenger car
159,501 146,994 171,101 215,073 276,154 339,670 400,811 452,916 502,284 540,458 572,885 609,550
sales, units
Passenger car
sales, units, % 36.0 -7.8 16.4 25.7 28.4 23.0 18.0 13.0 10.9 7.6 6.0 6.4
y-o-y
f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: AAF, VAMA, Fitch Solutions
Latest Developments And Segment Drivers
• Total passenger car sales up 12.3% y-o-y in the first eight months of 2018. This comprised a 23.6% y-o-y rise in sedan sales, a
32.5% y-o-y drop in sport utility vehicle (SUV) sales, a 54.8% y-o-y increase in crossover vehicle sales and a 24.4% y-o-y increase
in multipurpose vehicle sales.
• Sales of imported cars fell 49% y-o-y in the first half of 2018.
• We forecast growth of 25.7% in new passenger car sales in 2019.
• We expect car sales in Vietnam to pick up in 2019 as vehicle importers and distributors increasingly adjust to government
regulations surrounding the quality, technical safety and emissions standards for automobiles entering the country. This will
therefore result in an uptick in the volume of cheaper cars from neighbouring Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) countries (as a result of the removal of tariffs on cars coming from these nations) entering the Vietnamese market.
Key Players
PASSENGER CAR SALES BY BRAND, UNITS

Brand 8M18 8M17 % chg y-o-y Market Share (%)
Toyota 34,387 38,613 -10.9 31.3
Vina Mazda 19,921 14,986 32.9 18.2
Kia 18,269 15,271 19.6 16.6
Honda 15,220 7,683 98.1 13.9
Ford 4,854 5,514 -12.0 4.4
GM 4,298 4,826 15.4 3.9
Mercedes-Benz 4,022 3,698 87.2 3.3
Mitsubishi 3,368 2,684 58.9 3.2
Peugeot 2,836 194 1361.9 2.6
TCIEV 1,727 1,989 -13.2 1.6
Top 10 Brands 108,902 95,458 14.1 99.2
Others 835 2,236 -62.7 0.8
Total 109,737 97,694 12.3
Source: VAMA, Fitch Solutions
Commercial Vehicles
Key View: We forecast growth of 9.8% in total CV sales in Vietnam in 2019 as vehicle importers and distributors increasingly adjust
to government regulations surrounding the quality, technical safety and emissions standards for automobiles entering the country.
This will therefore result in an uptick in the volume of cheaper vehicles from neighbouring ASEAN countries (as a result of the
removal of tariffs on vehicles coming from these nations) entering the Vietnamese market.
COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET - HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS (VIETNAM 2016-2027)

Commercial
vehicle 90,590 83,204 75,882 78,158 81,441 84,698 88,510 92,404 95,176 98,317 102,741 107,468
production, units
Commercial
vehicles
24.6 -8.2 -8.8 3.0 4.2 4.0 4.5 4.4 3.0 3.3 4.5 4.6
production, units,
% y-o-y
Commercial
vehicle sales, 99,027 93,459 97,384 106,927 116,979 127,555 136,739 145,764 154,510 164,399 175,578 185,059
units
Commercial
vehicle sales, 21.8 -5.6 4.2 9.8 9.4 9.0 7.2 6.6 6.0 6.4 6.8 5.4
units, % y-o-y
f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: AAF, VAMA, Fitch Solutions
Latest Developments And Segment Drivers
• Total commercial vehicle (CV) sales were down 20% y-o-y in the first eight months of 2018: light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales
were down 19.7% y-o-y, heavy truck sales fell 37.3% y-o-y and bus sales were down by 13.1% y-o-y.
• We forecast growth of 9.8% in total CV sales in Vietnam in 2019.
• We expect CV sales in Vietnam to pick up in 2019 as vehicle importers and distributors increasingly adjust to government
regulations surrounding the quality, technical safety and emissions standards for automobiles entering the country. This will
therefore result in an uptick in the volume of cheaper vehicles from neighbouring Assocation of Southeast Asian Nations
countries (as a result of the removal of tariffs on vehicles coming from these nations) entering the Vietnamese market.
• The strong expansion in the Vietnamese construction industry will bode well for heavy truck demand.
• Sales in the bus segment will benefit from a booming tourism industry.
Key Players
COMMERCIAL VEHICLE SALES BY BRAND, UNITS

Brand 8M18 8M17 % chg y-o-y Market Share (%)
THACO Truck 16,210 19,101 -15.1 33.7
Ford 7,455 13,567 -45.1 15.5
Dothanh 4,824 3,568 35.2 10.0
Suzuki 4,042 2,433 66.1 8.4
Isuzu 3,949 3,984 -0.9 8.2
Vina Motor 2,021 2,832 -28.6 4.2
Hino 1,760 2,392 -26.4 3.7
THACO Bus 1,402 2,049 -31.6 2.9
VEAM 1,195 2,100 -43.1 2.5
Vina Mazda 1,023 1,744 -41.3 2.1
Top 10 Brands 43,881 53,770 -18.4 91.1
Others 4,289 6,425 -33.2 8.9
Total 48,170 60,195 -20.0
Source: VAMA, Fitch Solutions
Industry Risk/Reward Index

Asia Autos Production Risk/Reward Index
Key View: In the most recent update of our Autos Production RRI, Asia's overall score has remained largely unchanged, coming in
at 57.6 out of a possible 100, compared to 57.4 previously. As a result, Asia maintains its position as the most attractive region to
begin or maintain autos manufacturing operations globally. Asia still has the highest overall rewards score of all regions globally in
our Autos Production RRI because of the region's high volume vehicle production, healthy competitive landscape, low labour costs
and good manufacturing capabilities in most countries.
Thailand Maintains Lead As Most Attractive Production Destination

Asia - Autos Production Risk/Reward Index Heat Map
Note: Scores out of 100, higher score = more attractive market. Source: Fitch Solutions Autos Production Risk/Reward Index
Main Regional Features And Latest Updates
• In the most recent update of our Autos Production Risk/Reward Index (RRI), Asia's overall score has remained largely unchanged,
coming in at 57.6 out of a possible 100, compared to 57.4 previously. As a result, Asia maintains its position as the most attractive
region to begin or maintain autos manufacturing operations globally, above second place Europe (with a score of 52.2).
• Asia's presence in the top 10 of the global rankings in our Autos Production RRI has remained unchanged, with five markets
present. The countries in the global top 10 come predominately from the emerging Asia sub-region, with Thailand, China,
Malaysia and India making the cut. Japan remains the only developed Asia market in the global top 10.
• Asia still has the highest overall Rewards score of all regions globally in our Autos Production RRI, coming in at 59.9 in our latest
update, largely unchanged from at 59.6 previously.These high rewards are due to the region's high volume vehicle production
(overall score of 59.8), healthy competitive landscape (overall score of 66.8), low labour costs (overall score of 65.8) and good
manufacturing capabilities in most countries (overall score of 63.3).
• High operational and political risks in the emerging Asia sub-region remain challenges for automakers looking to set up
manufacturing facilities on the continent.
• Thailand, China and Malaysia remain the top three most attractive markets for automakers looking to begin or maintain autos
manufacturing operations in the region with overall scores of 72.3,71.5 and 71.0 out of a possible 100 respectively.
South Korea Makes Shift Into High Rewards, Low Risks Quadrant
Asia - Autos Production Risk/Reward Index
Note: Scores out of 100; higher score = more attractive market; red point = regional average. Source: Fitch Solutions Autos Production Risk/Reward Index
High Rewards Make Asia Attractive
In the latest update of our Autos Production RRI, Asia's score for its overall rewards has remained largely unchanged, coming in at
59.9 out of a possible 100, compared to 59.6 previously. As a result, the region remains the highest scorer on this indicator
globally, making it a highly attractive destination for automakers looking to begin or maintain autos manufacturing operations. This
is because of the region's high volume vehicle production (overall score of 59.8), healthy competitive landscape (overall score of
66.8), low labour costs (overall score of 65.8) and good manufacturing capabilities in most countries (overall score of 63.3).
Asia Leading In Terms Of Rewards

Rewards Indicator Scores
Note: Scores out of 100; higher score = more attractive market. Source: Fitch Solutions Autos Production Risk/Reward Index
Drilling down further, emerging Asia markets continue to offer the highest overall rewards in the region when compared to
developed markets. Thailand, India, China and Malaysia offer the most attractive rewards for automakers looking to begin or
maintain manufacturing operations in Asia, with Japan the only developed Asia market in the top five regionally when ranked
according to overall reward potential.
Emerging Asia Markets Leading

Asia - Rewards Score
While emerging Asia countries offer automakers attractive rewards, the sub-region's high operational and political risks act as a drag
on its attractiveness. Emerging Asia gets low overall scores of 33.9 and 35.3 respectively on its short- and long-term political risk
indicators. In addition, the sub-region's high risk operating environment (with an overall score of 33.9), presents challenges to
automakers looking to set up and maintain manufacturing activities in the region.
ASIA AUTOS PRODUCTION RISK/REWARD INDEX

Industry Country Industry Country Regional Global
Rewards Risks RRI
Rewards Rewards Risks Risks Rank Rank
Thailand 79.2 77.7 78.6 71.9 54.0 62.9 72.3 1 2
China 78.6 68.8 74.6 71.0 62.8 66.9 71.5 2 3
Malaysia 66.1 76.3 70.2 77.2 67.3 72.2 71.0 3 4
Japan 59.8 72.3 64.8 67.4 73.8 70.6 67.1 4 7
India 86.3 59.8 75.7 66.5 41.7 54.1 67.1 5 8
Taiwan 55.7 73.2 62.7 43.8 86.8 65.3 63.7 6 11
South Korea 47.6 67.9 55.7 62.1 81.8 71.9 62.2 7 14
Indonesia 64.9 56.7 61.6 61.2 44.3 52.8 58.1 8 22
Vietnam 58.9 59.4 59.1 20.5 42.7 31.6 48.1 9 32
Philippines 49.1 54.5 51.3 47.8 37.5 42.6 47.8 10 33
Pakistan 71.4 31.3 55.4 46.9 9.1 28.0 44.4 11 38
Australia 6.5 58.5 27.3 42.9 81.8 62.4 41.3 12 42
Bangladesh 45.8 36.2 42.0 15.2 26.5 20.8 33.5 13 45
Global Average 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 ~ ~
Regional
59.2 61.0 59.9 53.4 54.6 54.0 57.6 ~ ~
Average
ASIA AUTOS PRODUCTION REWARDS

Vehicle production growth Vehicle production volume Competitive Landscape Industry Rewards Rewards
Thailand 62.5 82.1 92.9 79.2 78.6
China 35.7 100.0 100.0 78.6 74.6
Malaysia 46.4 55.4 96.4 66.1 70.2
Japan 14.3 96.4 68.8 59.8 64.8
India 71.4 92.9 94.6 86.3 75.7
Taiwan 50.0 48.2 68.8 55.7 62.7
South Korea 26.8 91.1 25.0 47.6 55.7
Indonesia 64.3 71.4 58.9 64.9 61.6
Vietnam 57.1 41.1 78.6 58.9 59.1
Philippines 44.6 33.9 68.8 49.1 51.3
Pakistan 89.3 50.0 75.0 71.4 55.4
Australia 1.8 1.8 16.1 6.5 27.3
Bangladesh 100.0 12.5 25.0 45.8 42.0
Global Average 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Regional Average 51.1 59.8 66.8 59.2 59.9
Note: Scores out of 100; higher scores = more attractive market. Source: Fitch Solutions Autos Production Risk Reward Index
ASIA AUTOS PRODUCTION REWARDS

Size of labour Average wages/ Cost and Availability of Manufacturing Country
Rewards
force labour costs Utilities Capability Rewards
Thailand 73.2 76.8 82.1 78.6 77.7 78.6
China 83.9 41.1 51.8 98.2 68.8 74.6
Malaysia 60.7 91.1 85.7 67.9 76.3 70.2
Japan 94.6 16.1 83.9 94.6 72.3 64.8
India 8.9 96.4 58.9 75.0 59.8 75.7
Taiwan 85.7 30.4 94.6 82.1 73.2 62.7
South Korea 87.5 19.6 73.2 91.1 67.9 55.7
Indonesia 39.3 94.6 35.7 57.1 56.7 61.6
Vietnam 78.6 80.4 41.1 37.5 59.4 59.1
Philippines 35.7 92.9 17.9 71.4 54.5 51.3
Pakistan 1.8 100.0 3.6 19.6 31.3 55.4
Australia 98.2 17.9 78.6 39.3 58.5 27.3
Bangladesh 25.0 98.2 10.7 10.7 36.2 42.0
Global
50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Average
Size of labour Average wages/ Cost and Availability of Manufacturing Country

Rewards
force labour costs Utilities Capability Rewards
Regional
59.5 65.8 55.2 63.3 61.0 59.9
Average
ASIA AUTOS PRODUCTION RISKS

Logistics risk Strength of industry policy Industry Risks Risks
Thailand 62.5 81.3 71.9 62.9
China 60.7 81.3 71.0 66.9
Malaysia 73.2 81.3 77.2 72.2
Japan 92.9 42.0 67.4 70.6
India 51.8 81.3 66.5 54.1
Taiwan 78.6 8.9 43.8 65.3
South Korea 82.1 42.0 62.1 71.9
Indonesia 41.1 81.3 61.2 52.8
Vietnam 32.1 8.9 20.5 31.6
Philippines 14.3 81.3 47.8 42.6
Pakistan 12.5 81.3 46.9 28.0
Australia 66.1 19.6 42.9 62.4
Bangladesh 8.9 21.4 15.2 20.8
Global Average 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Regional Average 52.1 54.7 53.4 54.0
ASIA AUTOS PRODUCTION RISKS

Long Term Short Term Long Term
Short Term Operational Country
Economic Risk Economic Risk Political Risk Risks
Political Risk Index Risk Index Risks
Index Index Index
Thailand 64.3 75.9 23.2 53.6 53.6 54.0 62.9
China 91.1 92.9 48.2 48.2 48.2 62.8 66.9
Malaysia 75.0 80.4 44.6 67.9 67.9 67.3 72.2
Japan 57.1 37.5 85.7 87.5 87.5 73.8 70.6
India 37.5 62.5 58.9 30.4 30.4 41.7 54.1
Taiwan 94.6 95.5 62.5 89.3 89.3 86.8 65.3
South
100.0 100.0 76.8 71.4 71.4 81.8 71.9
Korea
Indonesia 60.7 58.9 39.3 35.7 35.7 44.3 52.8
Vietnam 53.6 54.5 25.0 41.1 41.1 42.7 31.6
Philippines 69.6 60.7 41.1 17.9 17.9 37.5 42.6
Pakistan 19.6 15.2 8.9 3.6 3.6 9.1 28.0
Australia 82.1 67.9 89.3 83.9 83.9 81.8 62.4
Bangladesh 42.9 66.1 28.6 7.1 7.1 26.5 20.8
Global
50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Average
Regional
65.2 66.8 48.6 49.0 49.0 54.6 54.0
Average
Please Note: Our Risk/Reward Indices are updated frequently; as a result, scores in this section may not match scores in the rest of
the report.
Asia Auto Sales Risk/Reward Index

Key View: Asia's score in the Q119 update of our Auto Sales Risk/Reward Index has risen to 51.3 out of a possible 100, up 50.7
previously. As a result, Asia retains its position as the second-highest scoring region globally in our Autos Sales RRI. Asia's
attractiveness as a vehicle retailing destination lies in the fact that the region boasts two of the world's largest vehicle markets
(notably India and China) as well as having a large underlying driving age population for automakers to tap into. That said, high
industry and country risks, particularly in the emerging Asia sub-region, present challenges to automakers looking to set up and
maintain retailing activities in the region.
Developed Asia Markets Leading With High Scores

Asia - Autos Sales Risk/Reward Heat Map
Note: Scores out of 100; higher score = more attractive market. Source: Fitch Solutions Autos Sales Risk/Reward Index
Main Regional Features And Latest Updates
• Asia's overall score in the Q119 update of our Auto Sales Risk/Reward Index (RRI) has risen to 51.3 out of a possible 100, up from
50.7 previously. As a result, Asia retains its position as the second-highest scoring region globally in our Autos Sales RRI, although
it remains quite some way behind global leader Europe on 62.0 and ahead of third-placed MENA region on 47.3.
• Australia once again holds onto its status as the most attractive market to enter and operate vehicle retailing activities in Asia,
with a score of 73.2 out of a possible 100, up slightly from 72.9 previously.
• In a global context, Australia and New Zealand remain the only two Asian markets in the top 20 globally in our Autos Sales RRI,
coming in 14th and 19th place respectively.
• Asia's attractiveness as a vehicle retailing destination lies in the fact that the region boasts two of the world's largest vehicle
markets (notably India and China) as well as having a large underlying driving age population for automakers to tap into.
• The region's poorest scores lie mainly on the Industry Risk and Industry Rewards side, owing to low car ownership rates (with a
regional average score of 39.3), a restricted competitive landscape in many markets (with a regional average score of 33.4) and
high taxes on vehicle purchases (with a regional average score of 36.8).
ASEAN States Dominate Low Rewards/High Risks Quadrant

Asia - Autos Sales Risk/Reward Index
Note: Scores out of 100; higher score = more attractive market; red point = regional average. Source: Fitch Solutions Autos Sales Risk/Reward Index
High Growth Opportunities Make Emerging Asia Attractive
Emerging Asia countries offer automakers some of the highest growth opportunities both on a regional and global level, when
compared to more developed Asian nations, largely due to low base effects and the infancy of new vehicle markets in some of the
countries in this sub-region. On average the emerging Asia region has seen its score for the vehicle sales growth indicator (which is
based on our five-year average forecast) for Q119 rise to 67.6 out of a possible 100, from 60.5 the previous quarter. Sri Lanka and
Thailand are the most notable emerging Asia countries that have seen the sharpest upward revisions to their vehicle sales growth
indicators, up by 59.4 and 9.9 points respectively to 91.1 and 78.2 out of a possible 100. This can be largely attributed to robust
growth in commercial vehicle sales, which are benefiting from high construction sector activity, driven by solid infrastructure project
pipelines (see 'Private Sector Investment And Strong Infrastructure Project Pipeline To Fuel Thailand CV Sales', September 3).
Emerging Asia Offers High Growth Opportunties

Asia - Vehicle Sales Growth Indicator Score
High Risks Weigh On Emerging Markets Appeal
While emerging Asia offers automakers high growth opportunities, the region's high Industry and Country Risks act as a drag on its
attractiveness. Emerging Asia gets low scores of 42.3 and 46.6 respectively on the Industry and Country Risk pillars of our RRI. This is
largely down to the sub-region's high risk operating environment (score of 37.3), uncertain long-term political outlook (score of
37.1), unfavourable regulatory environment (score of 39.4) as well as the elevated tax burden faced by consumers when it comes to
making vehicle purchases (score of 18.6). These will present challenges to automakers looking to set up and maintain retailing
activities in the region.
Large Driving-Age Population Makes ASEAN Region Attractive
One of Asia's main draws as a vehicle retailing destination for automakers is the region's large driving age population, which serves
as an indication of the potential underlying consumer base. With the exception of Brunei, Laos, Singapore and Cambodia,
ASEAN countries dominate the rankings on the driving age population indicator of our Autos Sales RRI. Indonesia, Vietnam, the
Philippines and Thailand all score above 85.0 on the driving age population indicator for Asia. We forecast the number of people
who are legally able to drive in these ASEAN states (population aged 17 and upwards) to grow from around 387mn in 2018 to
427mn by the end of 2027.
ASEAN Markets Prevalent In Top 10

Asia - Driving Age Population Scores
ASIA AUTOS SALES RISK/REWARD INDEX

Industry Country Industry Country Regional Global
Rewards Risks RRI
Rewards Rewards Risks Risks Rank Rank
Australia 69.4 75.8 71.9 68.0 82.3 75.1 73.2 1 14
New Zealand 67.1 65.3 66.4 66.1 89.0 77.6 70.9 2 19
Japan 54.4 92.7 69.8 67.2 77.5 72.4 70.8 3 21
South Korea 49.0 84.7 63.3 65.9 85.3 75.6 68.2 4 27
Taiwan 54.4 77.7 63.8 60.2 85.9 73.1 67.5 5 29
Singapore 36.8 79.4 53.8 85.2 88.2 86.7 67.0 6 33
China 64.7 67.1 65.7 44.4 74.6 59.5 63.2 7 35
Hong Kong 28.4 82.9 50.2 58.3 87.0 72.7 59.2 8 43
Thailand 63.3 58.4 61.3 45.2 61.9 53.5 58.2 9 45
Malaysia 54.6 63.5 58.2 40.6 72.1 56.3 57.5 10 49
Macau 47.2 65.8 54.6 61.8 60.7 61.3 57.3 11 50
Vietnam 54.2 43.9 50.1 59.4 61.0 60.2 54.1 12 56
India 52.6 45.0 49.6 43.8 62.3 53.0 51.0 13 61
Indonesia 55.8 49.2 53.2 28.5 58.8 43.6 49.4 14 68
Brunei 30.4 46.3 36.8 68.0 55.2 61.6 46.7 15 72
Philippines 38.3 36.0 37.4 50.3 53.1 51.7 43.1 16 79
Cambodia 49.4 21.8 38.3 51.3 28.9 40.1 39.1 17 85
Laos 50.2 17.9 37.3 47.0 28.1 37.6 37.4 18 90
Sri Lanka 41.7 40.5 41.2 19.1 42.9 31.0 37.1 19 92
Bangladesh 33.7 34.7 34.1 29.3 43.4 36.3 35.0 20 94
Pakistan 44.8 36.8 41.6 29.6 20.1 24.8 34.9 21 95
Myanmar 24.0 28.9 25.9 54.3 19.8 37.1 30.4 22 104
Afghanistan 11.3 15.0 12.8 3.8 2.7 3.2 8.9 23 125
Global
50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 ~ ~
Average
Regional
46.8 53.4 49.4 49.9 58.3 54.1 51.3 ~ ~
Average
ASIA AUTOS SALES REWARDS

Vehicle Sales Vehicle
Vehicle Sales Growth Competitive Landscape Industry Rewards Rewards
Volume Ownership
Australia 87.9 92.7 39.5 57.3 69.4 71.9
New Zealand 63.7 93.5 35.5 75.8 67.1 66.4
Japan 97.6 82.3 8.1 29.8 54.4 69.8
South Korea 89.5 71.8 7.3 27.4 49.0 63.3
Taiwan 70.2 60.5 45.2 41.9 54.4 63.8
Singapore 43.5 40.7 0.0 62.9 36.8 53.8
China 100.0 38.7 26.6 93.5 64.7 65.7
Hong Kong 26.6 24.2 1.6 61.3 28.4 50.2
Thailand 86.3 55.6 78.2 33.1 63.3 61.3
Malaysia 82.3 75.8 36.3 24.2 54.6 58.2
Macau 9.7 37.9 96.8 44.4 47.2 54.6
Vietnam 75.8 5.6 98.4 37.1 54.2 50.1
India 98.4 12.1 85.5 14.5 52.6 49.6
Indonesia 87.1 54.0 63.7 18.5 55.8 53.2
Brunei 15.3 54.8 23.4 28.2 30.4 36.8
Philippines 76.6 13.7 42.7 20.2 38.3 37.4
Cambodia 46.8 14.5 97.6 38.7 49.4 38.3
Laos 62.1 25.8 86.3 26.6 50.2 37.3
Sri Lanka 50.0 21.8 91.1 4.0 41.7 41.2
Bangladesh 47.6 1.6 82.3 3.2 33.7 34.1
Pakistan 73.4 7.3 96.0 2.4 44.8 41.6
Myanmar 4.0 4.8 65.3 21.8 24.0 25.9
Afghanistan 18.5 12.9 12.1 1.6 11.3 12.8
Global
50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Average
Regional
61.4 39.3 53.0 33.4 46.8 49.4
Average
ASIA AUTOS SALES REWARDS

Spending
Driving Age GDP Per Urban/ Quality And Extent of Country
Population, % Of Rewards
Population Capita, USD Rural Split Transport Network Rewards
total
Australia 65.3 91.1 87.1 58.1 77.4 75.8 71.9
New Zealand 24.2 81.5 79.8 57.3 83.9 65.3 66.4
Japan 93.5 80.6 93.5 99.2 96.8 92.7 69.8
South Korea 82.3 78.2 75.8 94.4 92.7 84.7 63.3
Taiwan 66.1 74.2 66.1 91.9 90.3 77.7 63.8
Singapore 34.7 91.9 99.2 81.5 89.5 79.4 53.8
China 100.0 51.6 38.7 66.9 78.2 67.1 65.7
Hong Kong 39.5 87.1 99.2 100.0 88.7 82.9 50.2
Thailand 85.5 44.4 27.4 67.7 66.9 58.4 61.3
Malaysia 71.8 55.6 62.9 41.9 85.5 63.5 58.2
Macau 5.6 99.2 99.2 96.8 28.2 65.8 54.6
Vietnam 91.1 19.4 10.5 50.0 48.4 43.9 50.1
India 99.2 17.7 8.1 29.0 71.0 45.0 49.6
Indonesia 97.6 27.4 30.6 33.9 56.5 49.2 53.2
Brunei 0.8 73.4 65.3 48.4 43.5 46.3 36.8
Philippines 89.5 24.2 20.2 19.4 26.6 36.0 37.4
Cambodia 53.2 9.7 3.2 21.8 21.0 21.8 38.3
Laos 28.2 21.8 18.5 17.7 3.2 17.9 37.3
Sri Lanka 61.3 31.5 1.6 43.5 64.5 40.5 41.2
Bangladesh 94.4 13.7 12.9 26.6 25.8 34.7 34.1
Pakistan 96.0 6.5 16.9 16.9 47.6 36.8 41.6
Myanmar 79.8 11.3 11.3 36.3 5.6 28.9 25.9
Afghanistan 63.7 0.8 4.8 5.6 0.0 15.0 12.8
Global
50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Average
Regional
66.2 47.5 44.9 52.4 56.2 53.4 49.4
Average
ASIA AUTOS SALES RISKS

Regulatory New Sales As % Of
Tax Rates Industry Risks Risks
Environment Fleet
Australia 50.0 67.7 86.3 68.0 75.1
New Zealand 54.0 53.2 91.1 66.1 77.6
Japan 41.9 66.9 92.7 67.2 72.4
South Korea 60.5 63.7 73.4 65.9 75.6
Taiwan 64.5 32.3 83.9 60.2 73.1
Singapore 97.6 79.8 78.2 85.2 86.7
China 33.9 93.5 5.6 44.4 59.5
Hong Kong 96.0 35.5 43.5 58.3 72.7
Thailand 79.0 54.8 1.6 45.2 53.5
Malaysia 82.3 29.8 9.7 40.6 56.3
Macau 76.6 78.2 30.6 61.8 61.3
Vietnam 79.8 95.2 3.2 59.4 60.2
India 41.1 89.5 0.8 43.8 53.0
Indonesia 39.5 38.7 7.3 28.5 43.6
Brunei 27.4 91.1 85.5 68.0 61.6
Philippines 34.7 84.7 31.5 50.3 51.7
Cambodia 62.1 83.9 8.1 51.3 40.1
Laos 19.4 97.6 24.2 47.0 37.6
Sri Lanka 16.1 41.1 0.0 19.1 31.0
Bangladesh 7.3 68.5 12.1 29.3 36.3
Pakistan 16.9 48.4 23.4 29.6 24.8
Myanmar 14.5 98.4 50.0 54.3 37.1
Afghanistan 0.0 7.3 4.0 3.8 3.2
Global Average 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Regional Average 47.6 65.2 36.8 49.9 54.1
ASIA AUTOS SALES RISKS

Long-Term Short-Term Long-Term Short-Term
Operational
Economic Economic Political Risk Political Risk Country Risks Risks
Risk Index
Risk Index Risk Index Index Index
Australia 85.5 75.0 91.9 72.6 86.3 82.3 75.1
New Zealand 95.2 79.0 87.1 87.9 96.0 89.0 77.6
Japan 71.0 53.2 88.7 85.9 88.7 77.5 72.4
South Korea 99.2 100.0 82.3 66.9 78.2 85.3 75.6
Taiwan 96.0 94.8 72.6 76.6 89.5 85.9 73.1
Singapore 78.2 83.1 80.6 99.2 100.0 88.2 86.7
China 92.7 91.9 52.8 82.3 53.2 74.6 59.5
Hong Kong 90.3 96.4 65.3 83.9 99.2 87.0 72.7
Thailand 75.0 81.0 33.9 60.5 58.9 61.9 53.5
Malaysia 80.6 84.3 50.8 68.1 76.6 72.1 56.3
Macau 44.4 64.5 49.2 81.0 64.5 60.7 61.3
Vietnam 66.9 68.1 34.7 87.1 48.4 61.0 60.2
India 55.6 71.8 70.2 74.2 39.5 62.3 53.0
Indonesia 72.6 70.2 44.4 61.7 45.2 58.8 43.6
Brunei 36.3 33.1 50.0 96.0 60.5 55.2 61.6
Philippines 77.4 71.0 46.0 42.3 29.0 53.1 51.7
Cambodia 20.2 29.0 29.0 40.3 25.8 28.9 40.1
Laos 7.3 4.0 26.6 83.1 19.4 28.1 37.6
Sri Lanka 41.1 37.1 45.2 50.8 40.3 42.9 31.0
Bangladesh 59.7 74.2 37.1 28.2 17.7 43.4 36.3
Pakistan 34.7 27.0 16.9 11.3 10.5 20.1 24.8
Myanmar 26.6 31.9 6.5 27.0 7.3 19.8 37.1
Afghanistan 4.0 5.6 0.8 2.8 0.0 2.7 3.2
Global Average 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Regional Average 61.3 62.0 50.5 63.9 53.7 58.3 54.1
Please Note: Our Risk/Reward Indices are updated frequently and, as a result, scores in this section may not match scores in the
rest of the report.
Vietnam Autos Sales Risk/Reward Index

Key View: In the most recent update of our Autos Sales Risk/Reward Index, Vietnam's overall score has remained unchanged at
54.1 out of a possible 100. The country is still noted for the high-growth sales opportunities on offer for automakers domestically.
Dragging on the markets appeal is a large, rural and low-income population and high operational risks.
Vietnam Boasts Huge Growth Opportunities With Large Potential Consumer Base
Vietnam & Asia Region Autos Sales Risk/Reward Index By Component
Vietnam Autos Sales RRI - Regional And Global Rankings
• Regional rank (out of 22): 12th

• Global rank (out of 124): 56th
Lower Country Rewards Compared With Regional Peers

Vietnam & Regional Risk/Reward Scores
Key Features And Latest Updates
• In the most recent update of our Autos Sales Risk/Reward Index (RRI), Vietnam's overall score has remained unchanged at 54.1
out of a possible 100. This score puts Vietnam above both the Asia regional average of 51.3 and the global average of 50.0.
• Vietnam gets a high score of 98.4 on its vehicle sales growth indicator (which is based on our five-year average forecast) on the
Industry Reward side of our Autos Sales RRI.This also feeds into one of the highest scores on the Industry Risk side of 95.2 for
'new sales as % of fleet', which measures the maturity of the new vehicle market.
• The Country Rewards scores, however, are much lower and show the relatively underdeveloped nature of the country compared
with the regional average. Vietnam scores just 10.5 on its rural/urban split indicator and 19.4 on its GDP per capita indicator,
suggesting that the population is largely rural with low incomes, compared with the regional average of 44.9 and 47.5
respectively for these indicators.
• Automakers in Vietnam will face higher business risks when compared to regional peers, reflected in its score of 48.4 on its
operational risks indicator, compared with the Asia regional average of 53.7.
• On the positive side, Vietnam scores above average for both Country and Industry Risk (61.0 and 59.4 respectively), which
denotes a relatively low risk environment. It scores particularly well on both its short-term economic and political risk indicators,
with 68.1 and 87.1 respectively.
Vietnam Autos Production Risk/Reward Index

Key View: In the most recent update of our Autos Production Risk/Reward Index, Vietnam's overall score has fallen to 48.1 out of a
possible 100, down from 50.9 previously. This can be attributed to a 21.4 point drop on its vehicle production growth indicator. The
country remains in the top 10 most attractive markets regionally for automakers to begin or maintain autos manufacturing
operations as a result of its large low cost labour force. That being said, its weak industry policy will keep production volumes low
relative to its more competitive regional peers.
Low Labour Costs Boost Vietnam's Appeal

Vietnam & Asia Region Autos Production Risk/Reward Index By Component
Vietnam Autos Production RRI - Regional And Global Ranks
• Regional rank (out of 13): 9th

• Global rank (out of 56): 32nd
High Industry Risk The Biggest Hurdle

Vietnam & Regional Risk/Reward Scores
Key Features And Latest Updates
• In the most recent update of our Autos Production Risk/Reward Index (RRI), Vietnam's overall score has fallen to 48.1 out of a
possible 100, down from 50.9 previously. This can be attributed to a 21.4 point drop on its vehicle production growth indicator
(which is based on our five-year average forecast), which now stands at 57.1 out of a possible 100.
• Vietnam's overall score on our Autos Production RRI continues to lag the Asia regional average score of 57.6. Despite this, the
country remains among the top 10 most attractive markets in Asia for automakers to begin or maintain autos manufacturing
operations.
• The Rewards pillar is quite strong for Vietnam, with a score of 58.9 for Industry Rewards, which incorporates a high score of 78.6
on its competitive landscape indicator. Country Rewards are also attractive, with an overall score of 59.4, which includes strong
component scores for a large labour force (78.6) and low average wage costs (80.4).
• Vietnam's lowest score is on its 'strength of industry policy' indicator, at just 8.9. This has often been quoted by companies as a
deterrent to investing in manufacturing facilities in the country, particularly with other Association of Southeast Asian
Nations states nearby that are more competitive and have better policies in place.
• As a result of its weak automotive industry policy score, Vietnam gets a score of 41.1 on its vehicle production volume indicator
(which is also based on our five-year average forecast). Volumes in Vietnam will remain small compared with regional peers,
unless more is done to incentivise manufacturing domestically.
Company Profile
Toyota Motor
Latest Developments
• Toyota Motor Vietnam total vehicle sales were down 12.5% y-o-y in the first eight months of 2018 (8M18).
• Toyota passenger car sales (sedan, SUV and MPV) were down 10.9% y-o-y in 8M18, giving the automaker a market share of
31.3%.
• Toyota commercial vehicle sales (minibuses and pickups) were down 67.4% y-o-y in 8M18, giving the automaker a market share
of 0.8%.
• Sales of Toyota Vietnam's luxury brand, Lexus, were down 82.2% y-o-y in 8M18.
Strategy
Toyota Motor Vietnam (TMV) is a joint venture between Toyota Motor Corporation (70%), Vietnam Engine and Agricultural
Machinery Corporation (20%) and KUO Singapore (10%). The company was founded in 1995.
Truong Hai Auto Corporation (Thaco)
Latest Developments
• Truong Hai Auto Corporation (Thaco) total vehicle sales were up 5.2% y-o-y in the first eight months of 2018 (8M18), giving
the automaker a market share of 39.5%.
• Thaco Kia vehicle sales were up 19.6% y-o-y in 8M18.
• Thaco bus vehicle sales were down 31.6% y-o-y in 8M18.
• Thaco truck vehicles sales were down 15.1% y-o-y in 8M18.
• Vina Mazda sales were up 19.1% y-o-y in 8M18.
• Peugeot vehicle sales were up 1361.9% y-o-y in 8M18.
Strategy
Truong Hai Auto Corporation (Thaco) is one of Vietnam's leading autos manufacturers, with its product portfolio comprising Thaco
Truck, Thaco Kia, Vina Mazda and Peugeot brands.
Thaco plans to put into operation 15 large-scale BMW-brand showrooms in Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi and other major provinces and
cities in 2018 to provide the best care and best after-sales services to customers across the country. In September 2017, BMW
Group Asia announced that it signed a letter of intent with Thaco for the Vietnamese automaker to become its new dealer of its
BMW and MINI models in Vietnam from January 1 2018.
In February 2017, French automaker Groupe PSA and local partner Thaco announced that they had signed a contract to
accelerate the development of their activities in Vietnam by committing to local assembly and bringing to market two new sport
utility vehicle (SUV) models, to be produced at Thaco's plant in Chulai, Quang Nam Province. Production of the two new models will
begin in October 2017, with the aim of assembling 27,000 units over 2017-2020 for the Vietnamese market.
Financial Data
• In 2017, Thaco recorded net revenue of VND49.6trn (USD2.2bn), down 16.2% compared to 2016.
• In 2017, car sales revenue amounted to VND42.3trn (USD1.9bn), down 23.0% compared to 2016.
Regional Overview
Asia Autos Overview
Key View
• A theme that stands out upon examination of the investment projects announced in Asia in Q318 is the expansion of production
capacity by automakers in the region.
• The production of large-size cars and SUVs continues to be an ongoing trend in China.
• Growth in infrastructure activity in Asia is helping to support investments in commercial vehicle assembly in the southern part of
the region.
In our regular round-up of production investments, we track the latest projects from the production side of the industry and analyse
regional trends that we see developing. In doing so, we hope to build a picture of any potential hubs that may be developing, as well
as company strategy in terms of production bases and export programmes.
ASIA AUTOS PRODUCTION INVESTMENT

City/
Date
Country State/ Company Value Brief Description Date Onstream
Annonced
Region
Master Produce Changan branded vehicles in

Motors and Pakistan. The new plant will have an
Jun-18 Pakistan Karachi USD100mn 2018
Changan annual production capacity of 30,000
Automobile units.
BMW and Increase capacity at Tiexi and Dadong

Jul-18 China Shenyang Brilliance na plants in order to produce a total of 2019
Auto 520,000 BMWs a year.
Set up a plant in Bangladesh to assemble

Aug-18 Bangladesh na Foton Motor na 2019
commercial vehicles.
ZYLE
Daewoo
Semi-knocked down assembly of city
Aug-18 Myanmar na Commercial USD5mn 2020
buses and mini buses.
Vehicle
Company
Maruti Suzuki to upgrade Toyota's

Maruti Suzuki
Aug-18 India Bangalore USD1bn manufacturing plant in Bidadi to increase 2022
and Toyota
its capacity.
Build a new autos assembly plant with an

Aug-18 China Wuhan Nissan USD900mn annual production capacity of 200,000 to 2021
300,000 units.
Guangzhou Boost overall manufacturing capacity by

Aug-18 China Toyota na na
and Tianjin 240,000 vehicles a year, or by about 20%.
Produce VW and Audi brand SUVs,

Volkswagen including plug-in hybrid electric vehicle
Aug-18 China Tianjin na 2018
(VW) and FAW models. The facility will have an annual
production capacity of 300,000 vehicles.
City/
Date
Country State/ Company Value Brief Description Date Onstream
Annonced
Region
Manufacturing facility with a capacity to

Aug-18 China Ningbo Geely USD498.31 produce 250,000 larger-sized vehicles na
annually.
Mitsubishi Plant with an annual production capacity

Fuso Truck EUR12mn of 4,000 trucks, and in its first stage, will
Sep-18 Thailand Rayong 2019
and Bus (USD13.9mn) assemble Fuso’s heavy-duty FJ 2528C
Corporation trucks.
na = not available. Source: Fitch Solutions
In Q318, we identified 10 new autos manufacturing projects announced or inaugurated in Asia, worth a combined total of
USD2.5bn (for those projects providing financial details). This is down from 17 projects identified in Q317, which were worth a
combined value of USD5.7bn (for those projects providing financial details).
Capacity Expansion A Key Theme In Asia
A theme that stands out on examination of the investment projects announced in Asia in Q318 is the expansion of production
capacity by automakers in the region. This is reflected in investments worth a combined USD1.9bn by Nissan and Maruti Suzuki.
Japanese automaker Nissan plans to build a new autos assembly plant with an annual production capacity of 200,000 to 300,000
units in China, while Indian automaker Maruti Suzuki plans to upgrade Toyota's facilities in India in order to utilise idle capacity of
150,000 units at the latter's plant to manufacture its vehicles (see 'Maruti Suzuki And Toyota India Collaboration A Win-Win For Both',
August 13). In addition, Toyota is also planning to boost its overall manufacturing capacity in China by 240,000 vehicles a year, or by
about 20%.
SUVs And Large Vehicle Production A Continuing Trend In China
The production of large-size cars and SUVs continues to be an ongoing trend in China highlighted by investments by Geely
and Volkswagen (VW) and FAW (see 'Autos Investment Round-Up: EVs And SUVs Main Investment Targets', October 3 2016).
Geely's new manufacturing facility is expected to have a production capacity of 250,000 larger-sized vehicles annually, while VW and
FAW's plant will produce VW and Audi branded SUVs, including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles models.
CV Assembly Leading In South Asia
Another notable trend in our round-up is how the growth in infrastructure activity in Asia is helping to support investments in
commercial vehicle assembly in the southern part of the region (see 'Asia Autos: Steady Growth Led By CVs', September
21). Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus Corporation plans to invest EUR12mn to build a plant with an annual production capacity
of 4,000 trucks in Thailand (see 'Robust CV Demand Bodes Well For Mitsubishi Fuso's Thailand Assembly Plans', September 14),
while Foton Motor plans to set up a plant in Bangladesh to assemble commercial vehicles in the country (see 'Focus On
Infrastructure Development To Support Foton's Bangladesh CV Plant', August 29).
Vietnam Demographic Outlook

Demographic analysis is a key pillar of our macroeconomic and industry forecasting model. Not only is the total population of a
country a key variable in consumer demand, but an understanding of the demographic profile is essential to understanding issues
ranging from future population trends to productivity growth and government spending requirements.
The accompanying charts detail the population pyramid for 2017, the change in the structure of the population between 2017 and
2050 and the total population between 1990 and 2050. The tables show indicators from all of these charts, in addition to key
metrics such as population ratios, the urban/rural split and life expectancy.
Population
(1990-2050)
f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, Fitch Solutions
Vietnam Population Pyramid

2017 (LHS) & 2017 Versus 2050 (RHS)
Source: World Bank, UN, Fitch Solutions
POPULATION HEADLINE INDICATORS (VIETNAM 1990-2025)

Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020f 2025f
Population, total, '000 68,209.6 80,285.6 84,308.8 88,472.5 93,571.6 98,360.1 102,763.5
Population, % y-o-y 1.13 0.94 1.04 1.11 0.96 0.80
Population, total, male, '000 33,583.9 39,551.4 41,521.8 43,683.1 46,284.6 48,687.7 50,847.9
Population, total, female, '000 34,625.7 40,734.2 42,787.0 44,789.4 47,287.0 49,672.4 51,915.6
Population ratio, male/female 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98
KEY POPULATION RATIOS (VIETNAM 1990-2025)
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020f 2025f
Active population, total, '000 38,808.1 49,712.2 55,862.2 61,728.5 65,651.4 67,881.1 69,607.9
Active population, % of total population 56.9 61.9 66.3 69.8 70.2 69.0 67.7
Dependent population, total, '000 29,401.5 30,573.4 28,446.6 26,744.0 27,920.1 30,479.1 33,155.6
Dependent ratio, % of total working age 75.8 61.5 50.9 43.3 42.5 44.9 47.6
Youth population, total, '000 25,494.1 25,416.1 22,896.9 20,948.8 21,609.2 22,556.6 22,780.1
Youth population, % of total working age 65.7 51.1 41.0 33.9 32.9 33.2 32.7
Pensionable population, '000 3,907.4 5,157.2 5,549.7 5,795.2 6,311.0 7,922.5 10,375.5
Pensionable population, % of total working age 10.1 10.4 9.9 9.4 9.6 11.7 14.9
URBAN/RURAL POPULATION & LIFE EXPECTANCY (VIETNAM 1990-2025)
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020f 2025f
Urban population, '000 13,815.9 19,568.8 23,000.3 26,888.6 31,433.5 36,195.5 41,048.9
Urban population, % of total 20.3 24.4 27.3 30.4 33.6 36.8 39.9
Rural population, '000 54,393.7 60,716.8 61,308.5 61,583.9 62,138.1 62,164.6 61,714.6
Rural population, % of total 79.7 75.6 72.7 69.6 66.4 63.2 60.1
Life expectancy at birth, male, years 66.0 68.4 69.3 70.2 71.3 72.5 73.6
Life expectancy at birth, female, years 75.1 78.1 79.2 80.0 80.7 81.5 82.3
Life expectancy at birth, average, years 70.5 73.3 74.3 75.1 76.1 77.1 78.0
POPULATION BY AGE GROUP (VIETNAM 1990-2025)
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020f 2025f
Population, 0-4 yrs, total, '000 9,211.6 7,244.5 6,760.0 7,277.4 7,752.9 7,645.5 7,494.0
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020f 2025f
Population, 75-79 yrs, total, '000 747.2 978.0 1,073.6 1,256.6 1,161.7 1,158.7 1,438.3
Population, 80-84 yrs, total, '000 426.6 593.2 726.9 809.2 958.5 900.0 910.2
Population, 100+ yrs, total, '000 1.9 6.5 11.5 16.5 23.8 30.4 40.2
POPULATION BY AGE GROUP % (VIETNAM 1990-2025)
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020f 2025f
Population, 0-4 yrs, % total 13.50 9.02 8.02 8.23 8.29 7.77 7.29
Population, 100+ yrs, % total 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04
Autos Methodology
Autos Production Risk/Reward Index
Our Autos Production Risk/Reward Index (RRI) quantifies and ranks a country's attractiveness within the context of the automotive
industry, based on the balance between the Risks and Rewards of beginning or maintaining autos manufacturing operations in
different countries.
We combine industry-specific characteristics with broader economic, political and operational market characteristics. We weight
these inputs in terms of their importance to investor decision-making in a given industry. The result is a nuanced and accurate
reflection of the realities facing investors in terms of firstly the balance between opportunities and risk and secondly between
sector-specific and broader market traits. This enables users of the index to assess a market's attractiveness in a regional and global
context.
The index uses a combination of our proprietary forecasts and analyst assessment of the regulatory climate. As regulations evolve
and forecasts change, so the index scores change providing a highly dynamic and forward-looking result.
Benefits Of Using Fitch Solutions' Autos Production RRI
• Global Rankings: One global table, ranking all the countries in Fitch Solutions universe for autos production from least (closest to
zero) to most attractive (closest to 100).
• Accessibility: Easily accessible, top down view of the global, regional or sub-regional Risk/Reward profiles.
• Comparability: Identical methodology across 56 countries allows users to build lists of countries they wish to compare, beyond
the confines of a global or regional grouping.
• Scoring: Scores out of 100 with a wide distribution, provide nuanced investment comparisons. The higher the score, the more
favourable the country profile.
• Quantifiable: Quantifies the Rewards and Risks of doing business in the autos sector in different countries around the world and
helps identify specific flashpoints in the overall business environment.
• Comprehensive: Comprehensive set of indicators, assessing industry-specific risks and rewards alongside political, economic and
operating risks.
• Entry Point: A starting point to assess the outlook for the autos sector, from which users can dive into more granular forecasts
and analysis to gain a deeper understanding of the market.
• Balanced: Multi-indicator structure prevents outliers and extremes from distorting final scores and rankings.
• Methodology is a combination of proprietary Fitch Solutions forecasts, analyst insights and globally acceptable benchmark
indicators (for example, World Bank's Doing Business Scores and Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index).
Weightings Of Categories And Indicators

Autos Production Risk/Reward Index
Source: Fitch Solutions
The RRI matrix divides into two distinct categories:
Rewards
Evaluation of an industry's size and growth potential (Industry Rewards), and also macro industry and/or country characteristics
that directly impact the size of business opportunities in a specific sector (Country Rewards).
Risks
Evaluation of micro, industry-specific characteristics, crucial for an industry to develop to its potential (Industry Risks) and a
quantifiable assessment of the country's political, economic and operational profile (Country Risks).
Assessing our Weightings
Our matrix is deliberately overweight on Rewards (60% of the final RRI score for a market) and within that, the Industry Rewards
segment (60% of final Rewards score). This is to reflect the fact that when it comes to long-term investment potential, industry size
and growth potential carry the most weight in indicating opportunities, with other structural factors (demographic, labour statistics
and infrastructure quality) weighing in, but to a slightly lesser extent. In addition, our focus and expertise in emerging and frontier
markets has dictated this bias towards industry size and growth to ensure we are able to identify opportunities in countries where
regulatory frameworks are not as developed and industry sizes not as big as in developed markets, but where we know there is a
strong desire to invest.
INDICATORS - EXPLANATION AND SOURCES

Indicator Source Rationale
Rewards
Industry Rewards
Vehicle Production
Fitch Forecasted growth in production indicates growth opportunities and future speed of industry
Growth, % Chg y-o-y
Solutions development.
(five-year average)
Vehicle Production
Fitch
Volume, Units (five- Volume indicates size and development stage of local production industry
Solutions
year average)
Fitch
Competitive Solutions Indicates competition for productive resources and industry concentration using the number of
landscape Subjective vehicle brands being produced/assembled domestically.
Indicator
Country Rewards
Fitch
Size Of Labour Force The size of the working population indicates broad availability of labour.
Solutions
Fitch
Solutions
Average Wages/
Operational Indicator of the cost of labour, a major input in autos manufacturing.
Labour Costs
Risk
Indicator
Fitch
Cost and Availability Solutions Proxy for energy availability, a key input in establishing modern, mechanised and large scale
Of Utilities Operational production activities.
Risk Index
Fitch
Manufacturing A measure of complex goods as a percentage of total manufacturing, important to a value-added
Solutions
Capability industry such as autos manufacturing
Forecast
Risks
Industry Risks
Fitch
Evaluates the ability of producers to maintain production supply chains by assessing the quality and
Solutions
Logistics Risk extent of transport infrastructure, the availability and reliability of utilities networks, and the ease of
Operational
cross-border trading.
Risk Index
Fitch
Strength Of Industry Solutions
Identifies if local autos-related industrial policies are present and their respective strength.
Policy Subjective
Indicator
Country Risks
Fitch
The LT ERI takes into account the structural characteristics of economic growth, the labour market,
Long-Term Solutions
price stability, exchange rate stability and the sustainability of the balance of payments, as well as
Economic Risk Index Country
fiscal and external debt outlooks for the coming decade.
Risk Index
Fitch
The ST ERI seeks to define current vulnerabilities and assess real GDP growth, inflation,
Short-Term Solutions
unemployment, exchange rate fluctuation, balance of payments dynamics, as well as fiscal and
Economic Risk Index Country
external debt credentials over the coming two years.
Risk Index
Fitch
The LT PRI assesses a country's structural political characteristics based on our assumption that
Long-Term Political Solutions
liberal, democratic states with no sectarian tensions and broad-based income equality exhibit the
Risk Index Country
strongest characteristics in favour of political stability, over a multiyear timeframe.
Risk Index
Fitch
Short-Term Political Solutions The ST PRI assesses pertinent political risks to investment climate stability over a shorter time frame,
Risk Index Country up to 24 months forward.
Risk Index
Fitch
Operational Risk Solutions The Operational Risk Index focuses on existing conditions relating to four main risk areas: Labour
Index Operational Market, Trade and Investment, Logistics, and Crime and Security.
Risk Index
Autos Sales Risk/Reward Index
Our Autos Sales Risk/Reward Index (RRI) quantifies and ranks a country's attractiveness within the context of the automotive
industry, based on the balance between the Risks and Rewards of entering and operating vehicle retailing activities in different
countries.
We combine industry-specific characteristics with broader economic, political and operational market characteristics. We weight
these inputs in terms of their importance to investor decision-making in a given industry. The result is a nuanced and accurate
reflection of the realities facing investors in terms of firstly the balance between opportunities and risk and secondly between
sector-specific and broader market traits. This enables users of the index to assess a market's attractiveness in a regional and global
context.
The index uses a combination of our proprietary forecasts and analyst assessment of the regulatory climate. As regulations evolve
and forecasts change, so the index scores change providing a highly dynamic and forward-looking result.
The Autos Sales Risk/Reward Index universe comprises 124 countries.
Benefits Of Using Fitch Solutions' Autos RRI
• Global Rankings: One global table, ranking all the countries in Fitch Solutions' universe for autos sales from least (closest to zero)
to most attractive (closest to 100).
• Accessibility: Easily accessible, top down view of the global, regional or sub-regional Risk/Reward profiles.
• Comparability: Identical methodology across 124 countries for Autos sales allows users to build lists of countries they wish to
compare, beyond the confines of a global or regional grouping.
• Scoring: Scores out of 100 with a wide distribution, provide nuanced investment comparisons. The higher the score, the more
favourable the country profile.

• Quantifiable: Quantifies the Rewards and Risks of doing business in the autos sector in different countries around the world and
helps identify specific flashpoints in the overall business environment.
• Comprehensive: Comprehensive set of indicators, assessing industry-specific risks and rewards alongside political, economic and
operating risks.
• Entry Point: A starting point to assess the outlook for the autos sector, from which users can dive into more granular forecasts
and analysis to gain a deeper understanding of the market.
• Balanced: Multi-indicator structure prevents outliers and extremes from distorting final scores and rankings.
• Methodology is a combination of proprietary Fitch Solutions forecasts, analyst insights and globally acceptable benchmark
indicators (for example, World Bank's Doing Business Scores and Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index).
Weightings Of Categories And Indicators
The RRI matrix divides into two distinct categories:
Rewards
Evaluation of an industry's size and growth potential (Industry Rewards), and also macro industry and/or country characteristics
that directly impact the size of business opportunities in a specific sector (Country Rewards).
Risks
Evaluation of micro, industry-specific characteristics, crucial for an industry to develop to its potential (Industry Risks) and a
quantifiable assessment of the country's political, economic and operational profile (Country Risks).
Assessing Our Weightings
Our matrix is deliberately overweight on Rewards (60% of the final RRI score for a market) and within that, the Industry Rewards
segment (60% of final Rewards score). This is to reflect the fact that when it comes to long-term investment potential, industry size
and growth potential carry the most weight in indicating opportunities, with other structural factors (demographic, labour statistics
and infrastructure quality) weighing in, but to a slightly lesser extent. In addition, our focus and expertise in emerging and frontier
markets has dictated this bias towards industry size and growth to ensure we are able to identify opportunities in countries where
regulatory frameworks are not as developed and industry sizes not as big as in developed markets, but where we know there is a
strong desire to invest.
INDICATORS - EXPLANATION AND SOURCES

Rewards
Industry Rewards
Vehicle Sales Volume, Units Fitch Size of the overall vehicle market indicates potential for opportunities and scale of
(five-year average) Solutions operations.
Vehicle Ownership, Registered Fitch Ownership rates indicate market development/maturity and strength of consumer
Vehicles per 1,000 population Solutions needs/desires for vehicle ownership.
Vehicle Sales Growth, % chg y- Fitch

Forecasted growth in sales indicates growth opportunities for new/existing entrants.
o-y (five-year average) Solutions
Market Concentration, Fitch

Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Solutions Market concentration indicates the ease of entering and competing in the market.
Values Calculation
Country Rewards
Fitch
Driving Age Population Solutions The size of the population eligible to drive indicates underlying potential market size.
Forecast
Fitch
GDP Per Capita, USD Solutions GDP per capita identifies the purchasing power of consumers.
Forecast
Fitch
High and growing concentration of population in urban areas indicates greater pressure
Urban Population, % Of Total Solutions
for vehicle ownership and road-based public transport.
Forecast
Fitch
Spending Population, % Of Growth of spending population identifies the relative strength/influence of household
Solutions
Total decision makers who are ultimately responsible for vehicle purchase decisions.
Forecast
Fitch
Solutions Road quality highlights strength of road infrastructure and ability to cater for more
Quality Of Road Network
Operational developed vehicle fleets.
Risk Index
Risks
Industry Risks
Fitch
Regulatory environment for businesses is captured in the Operational Risk indicator for
Solutions
Regulatory Environment 'Economic Openness'. It assesses a country's openness to investment and trade,
Operational
especially by new market entrants.
Risk Index
Fitch
Measures the maturity of the new vehicle market and proxies for the rate of vehicle
New Sales, As % Of Fleet Solutions
replacement.
Forecast
Fitch
Measures the tax burden incurred by an imported new vehicle including MFN tariff rates,
Solutions
Vehicle Tax Rates excise and special taxes and VAT/GST. It is a strong determinant of how competitively
Subjective
priced a new market entrant would be.
Indicator
Country Risks
Fitch
The LT ERI takes into account the structural characteristics of economic growth, the
Long-Term Economic Risk Solutions
labour market, price stability, exchange rate stability and the sustainability of the balance
Index Country Risk
of payments, as well as fiscal and external debt outlooks for the coming decade.
Index
Fitch
The ST ERI seeks to define current vulnerabilities and assess real GDP growth, inflation,
Short-Term Economic Risk Solutions
unemployment, exchange rate fluctuation, balance of payments dynamics, as well as
Index Country Risk
fiscal and external debt credentials over the coming two years.
Index
Fitch The LT PRI assesses a country's structural political characteristics based on our
Solutions assumption that liberal, democratic states with no sectarian tensions and broad-based
Long-Term Political Risk Index
Country Risk income equality exhibit the strongest characteristics in favour of political stability, over a
Index multiyear timeframe.
Fitch
Solutions The ST PRI assesses pertinent political risks to investment climate stability over a shorter
Short-Term Political Risk Index
Country Risk time frame, up to 24 months forward.
Index
Fitch
Solutions The ORI focuses on existing conditions relating to four main risk areas: Labour Market,
Operational Risk Index
Operational Trade and Investment, Logistics, and Crime and Security
Risk Index
Fit
Fitch
ch Solutions, 30 North C
Colonnade
olonnade,, Canary W
Wharf
harf,, L
London.
ondon. E14 5GN, UK
Tel: +44 (0)20 7248 0468
Fax: +44 (0)20 7248 0467
Web: www.fitchsolutions.com
IS SN: 1749-0286
ISSN:
Copy Deadline: July 2018

opy
© 20
2018
18 Busines
Businesss Monit
Monitor
or Int
Interna
ernational
tional L
Lttd. All rights rreserv
eserved.
ed.
All information, analysis, forecasts and data provided by Business Monitor International Ltd is for the exclusive use of subscribing persons or organisations (including those
using the service on a trial basis). All such content is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International Ltd, and as such no part of this content may be reproduced,
repackaged, copied or redistributed without the express consent of Business Monitor International Ltd.
All content, including forecasts, analysis and opinion, has been based on information and sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. Business
Monitor International Ltd makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information provided, and accepts no liability
whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from opinion, errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the content.
This report from Fitch Solutions Macro Research is the product of Business Monitor International Ltd, UK Company registration number 01763490 (‘BMI’), and/or Fitch
Solutions Group Ltd, UK Company registration number 08789939 (‘FSG’). BMI and FSG are both affiliates of Fitch Ratings Inc. (‘Fitch’). BMI and/or FSG is/are solely
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Vietnam Autos Report Q1 2019

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Vietnam Autos Report Q1 2019

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Q1 2019

Industry Risk/Reward Index ....................................................................................................................................................14

Vietnam Demographic Outlook ..............................................................................................................................................38

Passenger Car And Commercial Vehicle Sales

f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: VAMA, Fitch Solutions

• We forecast growth of 19.9% in total new vehicle sales in Vietnam in 2019.

Weaknesses • A lack of production incentives hinders the automotive sector's potential.

AUTOS TOTAL MARKET - HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS (VIETNAM 2016-2027)

Sales To Pick Up In 2019

f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: VAMA, Fitch Solutions

Imports Starting To Recover

Source: General Department of Vietnam Customs, Fitch Solutions

Infrastructure, Investment And Tourism To Support CV Sales

CV Sales To Be Driven By Infrastructure, Investment And Tourism

f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: VAMA, Fitch Solutions

Tariff Elimination A Threat To Local Production

VIETNAM PASSENGER CAR MARKET - HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS

Latest Developments And Segment Drivers

PASSENGER CAR SALES BY BRAND, UNITS

Toyota 34,387 38,613 -10.9 31.3

Vina Mazda 19,921 14,986 32.9 18.2

Kia 18,269 15,271 19.6 16.6

Honda 15,220 7,683 98.1 13.9

Ford 4,854 5,514 -12.0 4.4

GM 4,298 4,826 15.4 3.9

Mercedes-Benz 4,022 3,698 87.2 3.3

Mitsubishi 3,368 2,684 58.9 3.2

Peugeot 2,836 194 1361.9 2.6

TCIEV 1,727 1,989 -13.2 1.6

Top 10 Brands 108,902 95,458 14.1 99.2

Others 835 2,236 -62.7 0.8

Total 109,737 97,694 12.3

Source: VAMA, Fitch Solutions

COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET - HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS (VIETNAM 2016-2027)

Latest Developments And Segment Drivers

COMMERCIAL VEHICLE SALES BY BRAND, UNITS

THACO Truck 16,210 19,101 -15.1 33.7

Ford 7,455 13,567 -45.1 15.5

Dothanh 4,824 3,568 35.2 10.0

Suzuki 4,042 2,433 66.1 8.4

Isuzu 3,949 3,984 -0.9 8.2

Vina Motor 2,021 2,832 -28.6 4.2

Hino 1,760 2,392 -26.4 3.7

THACO Bus 1,402 2,049 -31.6 2.9

VEAM 1,195 2,100 -43.1 2.5

Vina Mazda 1,023 1,744 -41.3 2.1

Top 10 Brands 43,881 53,770 -18.4 91.1

Others 4,289 6,425 -33.2 8.9

Total 48,170 60,195 -20.0

Source: VAMA, Fitch Solutions

Industry Risk/Reward Index

Thailand Maintains Lead As Most Attractive Production Destination

Main Regional Features And Latest Updates

High Rewards Make Asia Attractive

Asia Leading In Terms Of Rewards

Emerging Asia Markets Leading

ASIA AUTOS PRODUCTION RISK/REWARD INDEX

Thailand 79.2 77.7 78.6 71.9 54.0 62.9 72.3 1 2

China 78.6 68.8 74.6 71.0 62.8 66.9 71.5 2 3

Malaysia 66.1 76.3 70.2 77.2 67.3 72.2 71.0 3 4

Japan 59.8 72.3 64.8 67.4 73.8 70.6 67.1 4 7

India 86.3 59.8 75.7 66.5 41.7 54.1 67.1 5 8

Taiwan 55.7 73.2 62.7 43.8 86.8 65.3 63.7 6 11

South Korea 47.6 67.9 55.7 62.1 81.8 71.9 62.2 7 14