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FM ER Model 01 (AutoRecovered)
FM ER Model 01 (AutoRecovered)
FM ER Model 01 (AutoRecovered)
BUSINESS FORECASTING
REVENUE = PRICE * QTY
BALENO
SUZUKI
CV
PERSISTENT
EXAMPLE
HOSPITAL IN USA
MGMT SOFTWARE
ONSITE
GENERAL MOTOR
PERSISTENT IT SERVICES OFFSHORE
MICROSOFT OFFSHORE
IP LED
ION TO GDP GROWTH
SALES
100000
250000
350000 USD
75 INR/USD
26.25 INR MN
B IS SUBSIDIARY TO A
C IS SUBSIDIARY TO D
C IS ASSOCIATE TO A
157.5 78.75
<== cap int
S FOR A's SH
MODEL SCHEME
REVENUE DRIVERS
IS
COST DRIVERS
CFS FCFE/FCFF
RATIOS
BS
HISTORY FORECAST
ASSET SCHEDULE IS/BS/CFS
VALUATION RELATIVE
VALUATION DCF
PERSISTENT SYSTEMS
MIDCAP IT COMPANY LISTED IN INDIAN EXCHANGES
Persistent Systems
Template
(All numbers in INR Million, Except per share data)
(Red for assumptions, Blue for Acutal data and Black for Calculations)
Date Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
Year 2013 - A 2014 - A 2015 - A 2016 - A 2017 - A 2018 - A 2019 - A
Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25 Mar-26
2020 - A 2021 - E 2022 - E 2023 - E 2024 - E 2025 - E 2026 - E
Persistent Systems
Income Statement
(All numbers in INR Million, Except per share data)
(Red for assumptions, Blue for Acutal data and Black for Calculations)
Date Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Year 2013 - A 2014 - A 2015 - A 2016 - A 2017 - A 2018 - A
Interest Expense 0 1 3 1 1 1
EBT 2,630 3,427 3,900 3,697 4,121 4,293
EPS
Basic 48.62 32.04 36.84 34.74 37.68 40.39
Diluted 46.90 31.16 36.33 34.66 37.68 40.39
Number of Shares
Basic 38.59 77.80 78.89 79.82 80.01 79.99
Diluted 40.00 80.00 80.00 80.01 80.01 79.99
Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25 Mar-26
2019 - E 2020 - E 2021 - E 2022 - E 2023 - E 2024 - E 2025 - E 2026 - E
3 63
4,863 4,523 2,895 3,446 4,477 5,291 6,343 7,437
Property, Plant and Equipm 2,800 2,785 3,021 2,968 2,768 2,581
Capital work-in-progress 1,174 307 40 24 48 8
Right of use assets
Goodwill - 23 24 78 76 77
Other Intangible assets 702 1,269 995 1,325 2,515 2,464
Intangible assets under de - - - 242 241 45
Investments 173 823 2,308 1,469 2,339 2,881
Loans 199 138 58 86 131 143
Other non-current financial assets - 13 870 922 37
Deferred tax assets (net) 190 261 244 129 306 642
Other non-current assets 524 459 81 649 72 92
Total Non Current Assets 5,763 6,066 6,784 7,840 9,421 8,969
Borrowings 14 32 26 27 22 17
Deferred payment liabilities 559 301 - - 20 -
Provisions 80 93 116 124 146 160
Other Long Term Liabilities - 1 3 - 111 270
Total Non Current Liabilities 653 426 145 151 298 447
Total Liabilities and Shareho 12,671 15,434 17,881 21,199 23,464 26,589
12 46 46 46 46 46 46 46
- - - - - - - -
175 183 183 183 183 183 183 183
2 361 361 361 361 361 361 361
189 590 590 590 590 590 590 590
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
50.01 69.68 61.32 64.59 68.24 71.19 75.12 77.92
22.85 34.80 26.70 30.02 32.75 34.38 36.68 38.32
(288) (545)
3 63
(181) (14)
1,573 1,660 1,413 1,349 1,244 1,302 1,392 1,558
1 -
107 (131)
(87) 119
21 59
71 (47)
1 -
71 -
(5) 84
- 237
183 248
14 -
(70) (46)
(34) (7)
69 (119)
(366) (165)
(4) 6
5,941 5,925 4,308 4,795 5,721 6,594 7,734 8,995
(6) (14)
(2) (235)
(135) (232)
176 (559)
(246) (895) 2,300 (4,473) 1,760 (4,882) 835 (5,368)
(180) 713 (1,606) 2,555 (1,546) 2,652 (1,212) 2,836
180 (145)
(213) (1,369) 694 (1,918) 214 (2,230) (376) (2,532)
5,728 4,556 5,002 2,878 5,935 4,364 7,358 6,463
(1,405) (1,328) (717) (854) (1,109) (1,311) (1,571) (1,842)
4,323 3,228 4,285 2,024 4,826 3,053 5,787 4,621
(379) (758) (921) (1,073) (1,251) (1,459) (1,701) (1,984)
5 13
(148) (435)
(1,175) (902)
199 820
(145) -
- 25
(22,418) (19,457)
25,011 17,670
(4,050) 2,108
(300) -
650 250
(17) -
327 504
181 14
(2,259) (148) (921) (1,073) (1,251) (1,459) (1,701) (1,984)
(5) (5)
(571) (1,677)
- 39
- 3
(4) (63)
(881) (1,146) (640) (762) (989) (1,169) (1,402) (1,644)
(137) (154) (86) (102) (133) (157) (188) (221)
(1,598) (3,003) (726) (864) (1,122) (1,327) (1,590) (1,865)
- 37 - - - - - -
(71) 47 - - - - - -
Persistent Systems
Revenue Drivers
(All numbers in INR Million, Except per share data)
(Red for assumptions, Blue for Acutal data and Black for Calculations)
Date Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Year 2011 - A 2012 - A 2013 - A 2014 - A 2015 - A 2016 - A 2017 - A
Method-2 (CAGR %)
Revenue from 7,758 10,003 12,945 16,692 18,913 23,123 28,784
CAGR % - 9 Years
Revenue % By Geography
North America 85.60% 82.50% 84.8% 85.1% 85.5% 85.5% 86.40%
Europe 5.90% 7.30% 6.5% 5.4% 6.7% 6.5% 5.50%
India 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 5.50%
ROW 8.50% 10.20% 8.7% 9.5% 7.8% 1.3% 2.60%
ROW + India 8.5% 10.2% 8.7% 9.5% 7.8% 8.0% 8.1%
Segment Revenue
North America 6,641 8,253 10,977 14,204 16,170 19,770 24,870
Europe 458 730 841 901 1,267 1,503 1,583
ROW + India 659 1,020 1,126 1,586 1,475 1,850 2,332
Total Revenue 7,758 10,003 12,945 16,692 18,913 23,123 28,784
57,997
8%
70,069
11.9%
76,956
12,864
10,085
99,905
18%
25%
20%
Persistent Systems
Revenue Driver - Price * Quantity Method
(All numbers in INR Million, Except per share data)
(Red for assumptions, Blue for Acutal data and Black for Calculations)
Date Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
Year 2013 - A 2014 - A 2015 - A 2016 - A
Reveune Mix
Services 82.8% 82.0% 80.9% 78.9%
IP Led 17.2% 18.0% 19.1% 21.1%
Employee Details
Technical 6,540 7,349 7,861 8,618
Sales & BD 99 150 224 201
Others 331 358 421 445
Total 6,970 7,857 8,506 9,264
Development Team
Billable Software Professionals 4,628 5,174 5,354 5,463
IP-Led Professionals 748 762 851 1,126
Trainees 1,164 1,412 1,656 2,030
As % Technical Team
Billable Software Professionals 70.8% 63.0% 58.9% 53.7%
IP-Led Professionals 11.4% 10.2% 9.5% 8.7%
Trainees 17.8% 15.8% 14.8% 13.5%
Other Income
Other Income
Cash BOP + Current Investments
Other Income Rate %
Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
2017 - A 2018 - A 2019 - E 2020 - E 2021 - E 2022 - E 2023 - E 2024 - E
637 721
52,470 61,203
82.4 84.9
83.8% 83.7%
16.2% 16.3%
31.0% 30.4%
52.8% 53.2%
16.2% 16.3%
16,284 18,617
27,692 32,590
8,494 9,997
52,470 61,203
16.6% 16.6%
14,999 16,322
16,250 17,689
1,322 1,439
8.9% 8.9%
1,215 1,323
91.9% 91.9%
87,701 95,435
12,601 13,712
75,100 81,722
69,995 76,168
10,536 11,465
59,459 64,703
14,170 15,420
79.8% 79.8%
83.6% 83.6%
79.2% 79.2%
14.4% 14.4%
85.6% 85.6%
7,308 7,953
1,181 1,285
1,838 2,000
48.7% 48.7%
7.9% 7.9%
12.3% 12.3%
18,755 19,130
5,651 5,934
7,274 7,638
1,545,594 1,623,801
465,728 503,684
599,459 648,315
Persistent Systems
Cost Drivers
(All numbers in INR Million, Except per share data)
(Red for assumptions, Blue for Acutal data and Black for Calculations)
Date Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Year 2013 - A 2014 - A 2015 - A 2016 - A 2017 - A
Effective Tax Rate (Tax Expense/PBT) 28.7% 27.3% 25.5% 25.0% 24.8%
61,203
36,344
6,602
9,262
59.4%
10.8%
15.1%
24.8%
1,644
221
29.4%
13.4%
Persistent Systems
Asset Schedule
(All numbers in INR Million, Except per share data)
(Red for assumptions, Blue for Acutal data and Black for Calculations)
Date Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Year 2013 - A 2014 - A 2015 - A 2016 - A 2017 - A
Valuation Data
Total Debt (Long Term Borrowings) (2020)
Cash & Cash Equivalents (2020)
Number of Diluted Shares (2021)
Tax Rate (2021)
Interest Expense Rate (2021) 10%
MV of Equity
Total Debt
Total Capital
WACC
We
Wd
Ke
Kd
WACC
FCFF
Terminal Value
Total Cash Flow
Target Price
% Returns Rating
% Returns < 5% SELL
>5%, < 15% BUY
Rating >15% BUY
Terminal Growth %
- 4.0% 4.3% 4.5% 4.8%
13.0%
13.3%
13.5%
13.8%
WACC
14.0%
14.3%
14.5%
14.8%
15.0%
blication 2003
PEER DATA
Capitalization
Number of Equity
Company Name Ticker Share Price Debt Cash
Shares Value
Maximum
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile
Minimum
Valuation Multiples
MindTree
Hexaware
Mphasis
Birlasoft
Persistent Systems
Maximum
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile
Minimum
Revenue EPS
Enterprise
TTM 1-Y FWD TTM 1-Y FWD
Value
Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-20 Mar-21
77,600 79,200 38.33 50.61
55,800 62,800 21.24 21.61
88,400 94,900 63.09 63.31
32,900 36,900 8.06 10.26
Multiple
Min 25 %ile Median 75 %ile Max Parameter
Relative Valuation
EV / Revenue (TTM)
EV / Revenue (Fwd-1)
P / E (TTM)
P / E (Fwd-1)
DCF Valuation
Target Price - DCF Sensitivity
ge Target Price
Median 75 %ile Max