July 9, 2021

Commodities Outlook
Daily Commodities Outlook

Daily Recommendations

ICICI Securities – Retail Research

Commodity/Index Expiry Action Entry Target Stop Loss Time Frame
Silver mini Aug Sell 69300-69400 68700 69800 Intraday
Bulldex Jul Sell 14730-14740 14580 14840 Intraday
• PRODUCT 2

Research Analysts
Raj Deepak Singh Mohit Agarwal Dipesh Dedhia
rajdeepak.singh@icicisecurities.com mohit.agarwal@icicisecurities.com dipesh.dedhia@icicisecurities.com
Daily Snapshot

Recent Developments Global Price Performance

Commodities Outlook
• MCX BULLDEX traded 0.5% lower around 14690 as gold and Exchange Commodity LTP ($) Change % Change
silver prices corrected slightly. MCX METLDEX traded 0.6% COMEX GOLD 1797.85 -4.25 -0.24%
lower around 15130 as most metals corrected gradually COMEX SILVER 25.98 -0.15 -0.58%
• Gold trimmed gains made during a six-day winning streak as
NYMEX CRUDE OIL 72.75 0.55 0.76%
investors mulled Federal Reserve minutes that showed policy NYMEX NATURAL GAS 3.68 0.09 2.45%
makers wanted a more solid economic recovery before setting LME COPPER 9335.75 -108.75 -1.15%
a timeline for trimming bond purchases LME NICKEL 18360.00 52.50 0.29%
LME LEAD 2299.50 8.25 0.36%
• Notes from the Fed’s June meeting indicated officials were
not ready to schedule the withdrawal of the bank’s massive LME ZINC 2940.75 -16.25 -0.55%
bond-buying programme, given uncertainties around the
economic outlook. However, they also acknowledged the need
to plan for stimulus tapering MCX Price Performance

ICICI Securities – Retail Research

• The number of Americans filing new claims for Commodity Expiry LTP (₹) Change % Change
unemployment benefits rose slightly last week but continuing GOLD Aug-21 47697 -213.00 -0.44%
claims dropped, hinting at a choppy recovery in labour market
recovery
SILVER Sep-21 68887 -478.00 -0.69%
CRUDE OIL Jul-21 5438 46.00 0.85%
• Oil prices rose on Thursday, rebounding from early losses NATURAL GAS Jul-21 275.80 8.60 3.22%
after US government data showed a much bigger drop than COPPER Jul-21 720.80 -10.65 -1.46%
expected in crude and gasoline inventories
NICKEL Jul-21 1376.10 -1.40 -0.10%
• Copper prices dipped on Thursday after the US Federal LEAD Jul-21 179.25 0.30 0.17%
Reserve confirmed plans to tighten monetary policy sooner ZINC Jul-21 239.95 -0.25 -0.10%
than expected

Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, ICICI Direct Research

Short Term Outlook

MCX Gold Daily Chart Bullion Outlook

Commodities Outlook
50000 • Gold prices opened lower with a gap on Thursday and rose
49000
strongly during the first half of the session till a high of | 48290.
However, prices did not sustain at higher levels and corrected
48000 sharply in the remaining session till a low of | 47601
47000
• Prices corrected in the last session as US Federal Reserve
46000 minutes from the June meeting showed “various participants”
45000
felt conditions for reducing the central bank’s asset purchases
would be “met somewhat earlier than they had anticipated”
44000

43000
• Overall, we expect gold prices to consolidate in the range of
| 47500-48300 in the short-term
13-May
20-May
27-May
11-Mar
18-Mar
25-Mar

24-Jun
10-Jun
17-Jun
4-Feb

6-May
21-Jan
28-Jan

4-Mar

3-Jun

1-Jul
8-Jul
15-Apr
22-Apr
29-Apr
1-Apr
8-Apr
11-Feb
18-Feb
25-Feb

ICICI Securities – Retail Research

MCX Crude Oil Daily Chart Energy Outlook
5700
• Crude oil prices started Thursday’s trade on a flat note and fell
5500 further during the first half of the session till a low of | 5293.
5300 However, prices did not sustain at lower levels and recovered
5100 strongly in the remaining session till a high of | 5450
4900
4700 • Prices have taken support in the last session as US crude and
4500 gasoline stocks fell and gasoline demand reached its highest
4300 since 2019, signalling increasing strength in the US economy
4100
3900 • Overall, we expect crude prices to trade within the range of
3700 | 5300-5450 levels in the short-term
11-Mar
18-Mar
25-Mar

13-May
20-May
27-May

17-Jun
10-Jun

24-Jun
4-Feb

4-Mar

6-May

3-Jun

1-Jul
8-Jul
21-Jan
28-Jan

15-Apr
22-Apr
29-Apr
11-Feb
18-Feb
25-Feb

1-Apr
8-Apr

Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, ICICI Direct Research

Key Parameters

Daily Pivot Levels Gold/Silver Ratio

Commodities Outlook
Commodity Expiry S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 74 Gold/Silver Ratio has started
recovering as Gold outperformed
GOLD Aug-21 47174 47435 47863 48124 48552 72 Silver in the last few weeks
SILVER Sep-21 68026 68457 69076 69507 70126 70
CRUDE OIL Jul-21 5237 5337 5394 5494 5551
68
NATURAL GAS Jul-21 260.1 267.9 273.2 281.0 286.3
66
COPPER Jul-21 710.5 715.6 722.7 727.8 734.9
NICKEL Jul-21 1356.3 1366.2 1373.5 1383.4 1390.7 64

LEAD Jul-21 176.2 177.7 178.9 180.4 181.5 62

11-Mar
18-Mar
25-Mar

13-May
20-May
27-May

10-Jun
17-Jun
24-Jun
4-Feb

4-Mar

6-May
21-Jan
28-Jan

3-Jun

8-Jul
29-Apr

1-Jul
15-Apr
22-Apr
1-Apr
8-Apr
11-Feb
18-Feb
25-Feb
ZINC Jul-21 236.7 238.3 239.3 241.0 242.0

SPDR Gold Holdings (Tonnes) US Crude Oil Inventories (Barrels)

ICICI Securities – Retail Research

1200 ETF Holdings started rising as
1180 Gold prices rebounded strongly
Release Date Time (IST) Actual Forecast
in the last few months
1160
8-Jul-21 8:30 PM -6.866M -4.033M
1140
1120 30-Jun-21 8:00 PM -6.718M -4.686M
1100
1080 23-Jun-21 8:00 PM -7.614M -3.942M
1060
1040 16-Jun-21 8:00 PM -7.355M -3.290M
1020
1000
9-Jun-21 8:00 PM -5.241M -2.036M
3-Jun-21 8:30 PM -5.080M -2.443M
11-Mar
18-Mar
25-Mar

13-May
20-May
27-May

10-Jun
17-Jun
24-Jun
4-Feb

4-Mar

6-May

3-Jun

1-Jul
8-Jul
15-Apr
22-Apr
29-Apr
21-Jan
28-Jan

1-Apr
11-Feb
18-Feb
25-Feb

8-Apr

The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the
weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms.
Standard & Poor's Depository Receipt (ETF) Holdings

Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, ICICI Direct Research

 Today’s Major Economic Releases

TIME (IST) COUNTRY DATA & EVENTS FORECAST PREVIOUS

7:00 AM China CPI (MoM) (Jun) -0.1% -0.2%

Commodities Outlook
7:00 AM China CPI (YoY) (Jun) 1.3% 1.3%
7:00 AM China PPI (YoY) (Jun) 8.8% 9.0%
3:30 PM Euro Zone ECB President Lagarde Speaks - -
8:30 PM US Fed Monetary Policy Report - -

ICICI Securities – Retail Research

Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, ICICI Direct Research
 Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

Commodities Outlook
ICICI Direct Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road no.7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities – Retail Research

Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, ICICI Direct Research
July 9, 2021 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Research 6
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I/We, Raj Deepak Singh BE, MBA (Finance), Mohit Agarwal BSc, MBA (Finance), Dipesh Dedhia BCom, MBA (Finance), Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect

Commodities Outlook
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