Bihar Debacle: The Fault In BJP's Star

drgpradhan.blogspot.com/2016/10/bihar-debacle-fault-in-bjps-star.html

Dr. Gaurav Pradhan

It is easy to make comments while sitting outside but its also one of the most unbiased
because you are under no obligation to write only good things.

I am a great supporter of Narendra Modi and as such being one who has never visited any
BJP office or meetings gives me freedom to write what I feel is right.

On Sunday, BJP lost Bihar election. Something, which we never thought can happen
seeing huge surge in support of Modi.

So, what went wrong?

The RSS' comments on reservation came at a wrong time. Was it deliberate? I think so.
but on another side it is also true that the political advisors in the current government
now don’t have any listening ears. This was perhaps the biggest mistake and BJP today
are paying the price for it.

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I am sure in days to come BJP executives will sit down and brainstorm about this loss but
unfortunately in India, political brainstorming is like fall in line, supporting
groups/fractions, and falling to 'my leader better than yours' debate. In short karyakartas
do brainstorming, I mean senior karyakartas…celebrities netas. Hence I thought to pen
down my understanding as a professional who is devoted to national cause without any
interest ever to be a politician till date.
In Lok Sabha election, BJP got a huge mandate because people of India were sick of
corruption and the hope was that such people would be punished at the earliest, but
nothing happened till date. The media still has free run that corrupts the agenda for
government.
I am not trying to say that Modi government is not working, infact after Independence
this is the only government which is working for nation and it’s people and the results will
take its own natural time to surface. But the electorates in Bharat are more worried about
day to day life than political strategies. Also understand, the Bihar loss is not a negative
mandate for Modi or his government in centre, rather it’s a mandate against BJP
politicians.
Lok Sabha 2014 victory result was the hard work of Narendra Modi, ground level
karyakartas and social media strategist with many netas riding on Modi's name. In last 16
months, other than seeing my Prime Minister and few ministers working 24X7, others
seem to be still in celebration mode cutting ribbons. Prime Minister talks about Digital
India, local innovation, Google, Microsoft kind of Indian companies but our IT minister
who is from Bihar keeps running to Google, Microsoft for help. Before election, many

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Netas worked with karyakartas but after election the same people with whom they worked
need background check if they wish to meet Netaji.
Before election, many ministers talked about one nation, after elections no one knows
where that idea evaporated. 60% of Bihar is not on dependable communication line. Does
it take a mountainous effort to provide communication? A small amount of 1000Cr in
PPP mode could have networked Bihar within 12 months. Remember urban India does
understand the benefit of Digital India but rural India needs to know what it is and unless
they see it working they can’t understand.
The other point is Finance Ministry. Recently a 0.5% tax is imposed to fund Swachh
Bharat. My question is why can’t you add Rs 0.5 in petrol when you can reduce its cost by
Rs 1 and collect the necessary funding. Yes economist and financial people will not agree
with me but remember you have 70% rural population and they go by perception not your
economic or financial model. The minister is also I and B minister but has done nothing
to control Anti-India and hate speech from TV studios to print media.
In fact if you do a survey, I am sure many would agree that he is one of the most under
performing minister. I must also say that I am one of his great admirer but for me my
personal choice doesn’t matter in front of nation. NDTV money laundering case, Radia
tape and many more are in cold storage. The real estate sector is in great danger just in
Noida area 1,00,000 families' homes are at stake because the families are crushed
between delayed possession, high-interest rate and land cases of builders.
The Food Ministry, which is again run by a minister from Bihar, know what value he
added in last 16 months? The high prices of pulses and other items made people angry.
Was the minister sleeping for last 10 months that he failed to analyse the produce and
supply of last year. He woke up only when the nation started screaming. Food
adulteration is still at its tipping point especially milk. Few months I asked with few
tweets but never got any reply.
The government knows that private media has limited reach and mostly anti-
establishment but all ministers give interview to these channels and news papers and
ignore state media which has the maximum reach. A Rajya Sabha online content producer
posts anti-government messages but still retains his job.

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Yes, I agree Central ministers job is policy making but then who will check if benefits are
reaching to people who need it.
The Law minister seems to be non-existing. The National Herald case, which should be on
fast track, seems like a frog in well. It jumps three steps forward, falls back twice. And if
all is working fine then I am more worried that communication department needs urgent
help as it’s in ICU.
Any election is a coordinated and team effort but during Delhi, Maharashtra and now
Bihar election what is visible is that everyone have their own agenda!
Tongue control is the most important factor irrespective of who is the Neta and how
senior he or she is. This includes non-elected party members too. Narendra Modi talks
about development and these guys jump on TRP based system giving unnecessary
comments of cows, temple, reservation etc. getting themselves trapped in issue-hungry
opposition and its supportive media. Is there a unity of command in BJP, which is known
as the most disciplined party?
Recently, there was a controversy surrounding Bihar Chief Minister's advert post on a
Pakistani website. Why did this central minister get hyper and without having any
knowledge posts it up on social media. Couldn't he have asked any IT professional before
posting? Then comes another guy who counter his views and explain how it works along
with another minister who starts questioning the opposition on this subject. At the same
time, BJP adverts also start appearing on Pakistani sites giving red-face to BJP. Where
was the coordination in BJP?
And finally, the BJP IT cell. This cell was dead long back last year. In place of regularly
informing and educating people about government initiative, it has become an RT club of
people. RT each and every tweets of Modi, his ministers and BJP politicians in place of
putting out objective views. As a strong communicator, your job is to educate people in
the language they understand with help of pictures. Who made those posters of cows
when the agenda was clearly development?

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I remember during the run up to Lok Sabha election, we used to see 10s of banners
covering various points and solution but today its more like kids holidaying in Goa and if
they get time something is posted for the sake of posting. What I fail to understand is
what are people with banking, investment experience doing in IT cell? Are you guys
heading IT cell of a banking institution or political party? A facebook or twitter post
doesn’t make you Social Media expert.
Most BJP politician think that social media is their notice board! Sorry sir
but Social media is not your notice board. It’s a two way communication
system for one-on-one conversation.
To be a social media professional you should have strong understanding of core domain
and your viewers, not a degree in Chartered Accounting along with solid technical
knowledge of Social Media platform. I apologize for using rude words but the fact is that
monkeys were handed a razor and we all know what the result would be.
We all know that SM penetration in Bihar is less than 50% but Whatsapp has good
penetration. To my surprise, this app was virtually dead. This just goes to show that IT
Cell is in pathetic state and needs urgent attention. I did tweet many times that Bihar
electorate is not interested in Netaji files, cows or temple but rather on issues like roads,
crops, irrigation, employment, medical and education need.

If you can’t understand the need of your viewers and still a bunch of selected few decide
the strategy, the disaster was waiting to happen. I am not naming any one but you all
know whom I am talking about. I offered to give them training but somewhere in their
office toilet it was flushed out.

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Few people traveling from urban India manned the BJP Bihar war room. I got many calls
from volunteers telling me that they went to war room offering their services and
directions but were shunted out saying all is well and no help is needed. WHY? Why was
there no Chai Pe Charcha in the same aggressive manner as we saw during Lok Sabha?
Unfortunately or fortunately, many of my followers who are BJP supporters when they
were shunted out by these War Room 'experts', I kept their moral high by advising them
to keep using their work in virtual mode via Social Media. Remember, no matter how
experienced or educated you are, you always lack something and unless you are a great
learner, you can’t be a good leader.
What was War Room strategy with Biharis living outside Bihar in other parts of country
especially Mumbai, Delhi-NCR, Punjab and off course overseas? Did you engage with
them?
Just to quote a personal experience, during Lok Sabha 2014, my small team of 10 people
with no help or support from BJP got close to 1,00,000 fake voters canceled in our
constituency and added more than 70,000 fresh voters and the difference can be seen
with the gap Gen VK Singh won. Personally, I has burnt Rs 15 lakh by organizing more
than 60 Namo Tea explaining people the need for Namo. We never marketed our efforts
simply because we took it as national service but our elected netas have no time to talk or
learn from it.

Why was BJP neta in Dubai when his state was in election mode? The official statement
was to meet Biharis but reports suggest otherwise. Many times earlier this year I asked
Shatrughan Sinha and Manoj Tiwari to let us know their work in the respective

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constituency but we got no response. Most BJP politician think that social media is their
notice board! Sorry sir but Social media is not your notice board. It’s a two-way
communication system for a one-on-one conversation. No one is a celebrity on Social
Media. You are one of us.
To Summarize
BJP didn’t lost Bihar election; they just offered it on a platter to the opposition. It would
be wrong to blame people or opposition.
1) Diverting from core agenda of development in to cow, reservation, Pakistan issue;
2)Demotivate Karyakartas who decided to stay away;
3) A Media and IT Cell which are still in holiday mood since May 16, 2014;
4) No coordination between Netas;
5) Lack of local candidate and leader at local level;
6) Over confidence, Internal fraction and over-dependence on Prime Minister;
7) Lack of any action against corruption for which Modi Govt came into power;
8) Jet-setters ministers from Bihar, who spend less time in Bihar and more in Delhi, a fact
in August I tweeted that Ministers should now move to Bihar;
9) The arrogance of BJP politicians towards their karyakartas and people at large.
Lesson for Future
Amit Shah is blessed with organizational skill but unless you develop local skills, all
strategy fall flat. That was a case even in Delhi.
1) Have strong local leaders to drive agenda on the ground with his own team of Media
and IT;
2) Adopt Hub and Spoke model;
3) Better and proactive Media management;
4) Take opposition head on;
5) Don’t control media but also don’t give them easy run. File cases against Media Houses
who misquote, defame govt with wrong report aggressively with NO out of court
settlement.
Remember BJP came to power on agenda of development and to use iron hand dealing
with corruption. This should be visible now.
Today, Nitish Kumar has emerged as leaders in Bihar but rest assure Modi will have the
last laugh. Don’t know why but I do see victory in this defeat.
“To win a WAR, I lost two battles but that will not STOP me working for NATION... I will
walk and continue to WALK with my NATION.
I will WIN and my support for Narendra Modi as Prime Minister is unconditional. No
matter if everyone leave him, I will stand by him.
It is baseless to discuss voting share. It doesn't matter what %age voted BJP. The hard fact
is BJP lost an election, a golden chance to win Bihar.

What I wrote above is a fact in BJP because in this party the Top brass and Karyakatas are
the only one who works. The middle layer of MP, MLA is completely missing...

.....But My analysis hint something different which people may not agree now. Bihar loss
was a deliberate attempt by Narendra Modi and if it is so then i can say it is a brilliant

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strategy and the fruits of it will be visible after UP Election

This maverick attempt by Modiin next 2 years at max will expose Lalu Yadav in Nitish
govt. Lalu is not the one who believes in following someone and Nitish is too small for him
to follow. Second, It is important to lose this election so that people get some shock and
work in UP as a united force. During Bihar election, you have witnessed many fractions of
BJP. Sushil Modi, RSP gang, Shatru Gang, Rudy Gang for UP this would lead to disaster
and jepodise 2019 election which Modi started working from 27 May 2014. UP is
important for Rajya Sabha and also because it pumps maximum MP to Lok Sabha.

If my political understanding is correct, UP will have shocking result in 2017 and Nitish
Govt with Lalu will fall before 2018 and Nitish should be back in BJP.

Well I may be wrong as i am just a small student of politics and my data analytics failed in
Bihar election not because the data sources were wrong but due to shift in strategy in
middle of election. Rest Time will tell.

God Bless my Nation and it's people

(Dr. Gaurav Pradhan is Chief Information Officer, Digital Strategist &
Advisor, Key Note Speaker based out of Seattle and is ranked in the top 10
Global CIO. The views expressed here are solely those of the author in his
private capacity and do not in any way represent the views of News World
India)

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