Design Futures 3

Trends and
Scenarios

John Boult
 Previously…..
▪ ‘Scenarios’ or Possible Futures can ….
▪ Prompt/Support Strategic Discussion
▪ Act as Inspiration / Vision

▪ Can be created using a set of tools including ‘Trend

Analysis’.

▪ Trends can be based on …

▪ Previous or current data ‘extrapolated’. HARD TRENDS
▪ Observed general direction(s) in which something is developing or
changing…. Could be significant or a short lived fashion.
SOFT TRENDS
 You need to…

▪ Identify data trends that could influence / affect

your topic
▪ Identify ‘soft trends’ that similarly could influence
/ affect your topic

▪ So if it was ‘The Future of Parcel Delivery? What

data trends could you use to underpin your
scenario / future output?
 SCENARIOS

… a visual or text narrative on the hypothesised sequence or

development of events, based on based on certain
assumptions and factors (trends, variables) chosen by its
creator. Scenarios are used in estimating the probable
future effects of one or more variables and are an integral
part of situation analysis and long-range planning/strategy.

synonyms: sequence of events, course of events, chain of

events, series of developments, plot, outline, storyline,
framework, structure, scheme, plan!
 What Trends will affect Parcel Delivery?

Long Lasting / Significant

Urbanisation

Affects small groups

Growth in On-Line Purchasing
Affects many people / areas

Obvious and
Sharing Economy?
Short Life Span
not so obvious
Example of a
Data Chart
Example of a
Data Chart
 What Trends will affect Parcel Delivery?

Long Lasting / Significant

Affects small groups

Affects many people / areas

Short Life Span

 Where to look for Trend Information

▪ Government, Trade and Research Organisations

▪ Experts
▪ Trend Agencies
▪ Trend Experts & Writers
▪ Trend Bloggers
▪ Trend Websites
▪ Observation
▪ Reading Magazines
▪ Reading Books & Papers & ……
▪ Looking to the Arts & Literature
▪ Observing Life
Government, Trade and Research
Organisations
Government, Trade and Research
Organisations
Expert Opinion - Published

16 November 2006
LinkedIn Groups
White Papers
White Papers
Conferences
Conferences - Past … The Papers & Speakers
….. this stuff is happening now!!
YouTube
Expert Opinion
to make observations and
predictions in changes of new
or existing cultural trends.