Professional Documents
Culture Documents
IL&FS Transportation Networks LTD
IL&FS Transportation Networks LTD
COMPANY REPORT
BUY
12 Jan, 2011
IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd
Key Data (`) Investment Thesis
CMP 267.5 We are initiating coverage on IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd. with “Buy”
Target Price 321 recommendation based on SOTP valuation with target price of ` 321. We have valued
BOT projects at value of ` 125 per share, EPC business is valued at of ` 170 per
Key Data
share, ELSAMEX SA (an international subsidiary) is valued at ` 22 per share and
Bloomberg Code ILFT IN
other non-road projects are valued at ` 4.5 per share. On account of revenue from 22
Reuters Code ILFT.BO
road BOT projects and strong EPC order book, we expect the revenues to register a
BSE Code 533177
CAGR of 51% over FY10 – FY13E. With impressive track record of winning projects
NSE Code IL&FS Trans
in past and current huge opportunities in road infrastructure segment (` 85 bn in RFP
Face Value (`) 10
stage and ` 761 bn in RFQ stage), we expect ITNL to further enhance its current
Market Cap. (` mn) 51,967
road portfolio of 10,000 kms. However, high EPC revenues having lower margins
52 Week High (`) 367.8
and higher leverage will impact margins.
52 Week Low (`) 253.4
Avg. Daily Volume (6m) 145,442 Investment Rationale
Beta (Sensex) 0.46 ●● Largest BOT player with around 10,000 lane kms scheduled to be operational
Shareholding Pattern (%) As on Sept-10
by year 2014
Promoters 75.1 ITNL is the largest player in road BOT segment and has 22 road projects worth
Mutual Funds 5.2 10,000 lane kms under its portfolio followed by 5,700 lane kms of IRB infra.. At
Foreign Institutional Investors 4.9 present, ITNL has 4 annuity projects worth 1,000 lane kms and 6 toll based projects
Others 14.8 worth 3,300 kms, total 4,300 lane kms under operational phase. Remaining all 12
Total 100.0 projects worth 6,000 kms of ITNL, which are in different phases of execution,
are scheduled to be operational between years 2011 - 2014. With commencement
(` mn) FY10 FY11E FY12E
of operation of remaining projects, ITNL’s road portfolio will be approximately
Revenues 24,029 36,978 60,337
double compared to IRB infra (5700 lane kms) portfolio.
EBIDTA 8,785 12,684 19,351
EBIDTA Margin (%) 43 38 36
●● Moving towards balanced portfolio of Annuity and Toll based projects
PAT 3,444 4,022 5,187
(46:54): To de –risk uncertainty in traffic growth
PAT Margin (%) 14 11 9 In order to dilute risk of the existing portfolio to appropriate level, ITNL has bagged
EPS (`) 17.7 20.7 26.7 more annuity projects in last 3-4 years. At present, ITNL’s portfolio comprises
of 75% (of total lane kms) toll based projects and 25% annuity projects. 56% of
total under development projects and 70% of total pre development projects are
annuity-based projects. Over the period of time (2011-2014), this ratio of 25:75
(Annuity: Toll) will move towards 46:56, as projects under different phase will
commence the operation.
●● Strategy is to build largest project portfolio by efficient use of resources
ITNL is focusing on building a large portfolio. To faster scaling up of portfolio,
ITNL has outsourced civil construction work. ITNL does not have to look after
civil construction of projects under construction phase. Auction strategy has also
helped ITNL to use their resources effectively as auction has not only reduced
the risk from toll based revenue but also saved the resources which would have
been directed for toll management of those projects. As a result, ITNL will be
able to manage large number of project simultaneously with lesser resources
Analyst required. This strategy has helped ITNL to have upper hand on IRB in terms of
Amit Nisar project winning capability.
research@acm.co.in
Tel: (022) 2858 3403
Industry Overview
Roads and Highways
Investment to play vital role
Immense investments are planned in overall infrastructure sector
Fast growth of economy has necessitated high investments for development of physical
infrastructure such as electricity, railways, roads, airports, irrigation, urban and
rural water supply and sanitation. Lack of requisite investment, delays in execution
etc have resulted in a demand supply gap in the important infrastructure services.
The government has identified infrastructure as a key element for growth of Indian
economy and hence, outlay of around `20.5 tn investments in all major infrastructure
segment mentioned above to support 9% GDP target for Eleventh five year plan.
Outlay of `20.5 tn is expected to contribute 7% of total GDP which is estimated to
be `271 tn of total eleventh five year plan (at 2006-07 market price).
Revised projected investment in infrastructure
Years Tenth Plan Base year of XI 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 (RE/ 2010-11 (BE/ 2011-12 Total Eleventh
(Actual) Plan (2006-07) (Actual) (Actual/Est.) BE/Proj.) Projected) (Projected) Plan
(Actual)
GDP at market prices 178,409 42,840 47,172 50,035 53,638 57,929 63,143 271,917
Public Investment 6,809 1,737 1,995 2,381 2,630 2,908 3,199 13,113
Private Investment 2,252 708 1,043 1,211 1,399 1,692 2,084 7,429
Total Investment 9,061 2,445 3,038 3,592 4,028 4,601 5,283 20,542
Investment as percentage of GDP
Public Investment 3.82 4.05 4.23 4.76 4.9 5.02 5.07 4.82
Private Investment 1.26 1.65 2.21 2.42 2.61 2.92 3.3 2.73
Total Investment 5.08 5.71 6.44 7.18 7.51 7.94 8.37 7.55
Source: GDP data for Tenth Plan, 2007-08, and 2008-09 are from CSO. GDP growth rates for 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12 have been assumed as 7.2%, 8% and
9% respectively.
03
02
08
09
06
4
05
0E
1E
2E
3E
4E
07
0
0
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
01
01
01
01
01
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40% 86
12
30% 18 21 65 64 70
20 18
20% 33
10% 20
0%
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
Cess Fund External Assistance (Grant) External Assistance (Loan)
Borrowings Budgetary Support Toll Collection
Source: Ministry Of Road Transport And Highways Outcome Budget 2010-11, Economic Survey
2009-10
NHDP Status
27%
57%
16%
Road will continue to hold high share of freight and passenger traffic in the
country
●● The road transport sector has grown significantly during the past six decades from
13.8% share in goods traffic in 1950-51 to more than 60% at present, and from
15.4% share in passenger traffic in the year 1950-51 to above 85% at present).
●● Preference of road transportation for freight movement is mainly on basis of its
easy accessibility, flexible operations, door-to-door service and reliability.
Goods Traffic - Roads vs Railways Passenger Traffic - Roads vs Railways
100 100
90 86.2 83.8 90 85
82
80 69.9 80 84.6 72.2 72.2
70 61.9 61.9 61.3 70 64
60
60 60 51
% Share
% Share
50 38.1 50
38.1 38.7
40 40 40 49
30.1
30 30 36
13.8 16.2 27.8
20 20 27.8
10 10 15.4 18 15
0 0
1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2009-10* 1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2009-10*
Roads Railways Roads Railways
Source: The Working Group Report On Road Transport For The Eleventh Five Year Plan, ACMIIL Research
Note- For 2009-10, road is estimated to carry more than 60% of freight and more
than 85% of passenger traffic reported in Ministry Of Road Transport And Highways
Outcome Budget 2010-11.
Risks
Economy slowdown: Slow down in economy can affect growth of industry output,
trades that are being transacted between countries (Import-Exports), investments and
movement of goods occurred by commercial vehicles. Container traffic will also be
affected due to impact on trades between countries; which will hamper movement
of goods between ports to destination by roadways. It may also disturb growth in
automobile sector; hence growth in population of commercial & passenger vehicles.
Interest rate movement: Increase in interest rate can have impact on cash flow of
road projects, since most of the projects have reset clause for interest rate every three
years. However, most of the projects have toll rates linked to WPI; increase in interest
payment will be partially taken care by additional revenue from higher toll rates.
Policy and political risk: Adverse changes in policy will impact profitability and
margins of the company. Company may find difficult to raise funds for project if
policy hurts the confidence of lenders to lend on the projects. Procedural delays and
political involvement in policy changing can also impact adversely.
Execution risk: Delay in completion of construction of road may result in cost
overrun or may raise requirement of additional finance. Extended construction period
will also cause loss of toll revenues for this extended period, as construction period
is part of total concession period.
Funding Risk: Being capital-intensive industry, there is high requirement of funds
for companies which handles large numbers of projects. Raising enough capital which
can match this requirement is one of important risk factor. Due to this, gap between
duration of requirement and duration of source fund can impact adversely.
Outlook
Road sector is expected to do well on account of huge plan under NHDP and PMGSY.
As being important sector, we expect continuous development and uninterrupted
flow of investment from central and state government. As a result huge construction
activities is expected to take place once new road projects will be awarded. On other
hand; resolution of policy issues has imparted the following:
●● Clarity related to bidding of projects.
●● Reduction in delay of land acquisition as 80% of land required for project shall
be acquired by NHAI before awarding project under new norms.
●● Lowering of project cost.
●● Increase in concession period and partial traffic risk mitigation provision.
These new amendments in policy reduce risk factor for developers, as a result of
which quantum of investments in road sector through private participants has paced
up. This will lead to continuous growth and will ease funding pressure on central
level. However, there is risk of changes in policy and political issues, which cannot
be avoided and can give negative surprises to industry as we have recently experience
in proposed change (lowering of toll rates for three-axle trucks by 30%).
Company Overview
IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd (ITNL) is an established ISO 9000:2001 surface
transportation infrastructure company, and is one of the leading private sector BOT
(build, operate and transfer) road operators in India. IL&FS Transportation Networks
Ltd was incorporated on November 29, 2000 by IL&FS, an infrastructure development
and finance company, in order to consolidate their existing road infrastructure
projects and to pursue various new project initiatives like development, operation &
maintenance of national and state highways, roads (including urban roads), flyovers
and bridges. ITNL is a developer, operator and facilitator of surface transportation
infrastructure projects, taking projects from conceptualization through commissioning
to operations & maintenance. It has a diversified portfolio, including 22 road projects,
a metro rail project, bus transportation and border entry points. The company’s current
project portfolio includes 22 highways comprising more than 11,500 lane kms., which
includes 4,329 lane kms. under operation, 2,458 lane kms. under development, 3,229
lane kms in pre development phase and 1,398 lane kms. are under L1 status. ITNL
started its international operations by acquiring Spanish company Elsamex SA in
March 2008. This acquisition was done in order to complement ITNL’s BOT road
operations with acquired company’s offerings in maintenance of roads, buildings
and petrol stations in its home country, along with additional operations in Portugal,
Columbia and Mexico.
Business Mix
ITNL generates revenues primarily from annuity receipts, toll collection, operation
& maintenance activities and advisory & project management fees from BOT road
projects, and Elsamex’s maintenance business.
BOT Projects-Includes road, urban infra, metro rail and border entry points
projects
ITNL has a portfolio of around 22 road projects across the country, with equity
stakes ranging from 25% to complete 100% holding. The company has presence
across India with projects in 14 states. The company also entered into other areas of
surface transportation projects such as metro rail, bus transportation, border entry
points and regional airports.
ELSAMEX S A-International subsidiary
ITNL, through Elsamex S A, international subsidiary, involves in the maintenance of
roads, buildings, and petrol stations, primarily in Spain, with additional operations
in Portugal, Columbia and Mexico. Elsamex S A also provides consulting services
for roads and water supply projects in the areas of quality control, safety, health,
and environment, as well as conducts research & development for road maintenance
projects.
SWOT
Strength Weakness
●● Largest road BOT portfolio in the country ●● Dependency on construction players for civil
and execution skills (taking projects from ●● Low revenue yield due to balance portfolio
conceptualization through commissioning to of ITNL as compared to its strong competitor
operations & maintenance) IRB infra
●● Presence across country with projects in 14 ●● Higher interest and fixed cost has resulted in poor
states margins from international subsidiary.
Investment Rationale
Largest BOT player with around 10,000 lane kms scheduled to be opera-
tional by year 2014
ITNL is the largest player in road BOT segment and has 22 road projects worth 10,000
lane kms under its portfolio followed by 5,700 lane kms of IRB infra. At present,
ITNL has 4 annuity projects worth 1,000lane kms and 6 toll based projects worth
3,300 kms, total 4,300 lane kms under operational phase. Remaining all 12 projects
worth 6,000 kms of ITNL, which are in different phases of execution, are scheduled
to be operational between years 2011-2014. With commencement of operation of
remaining projects, ITNL’s road portfolio will be approximately double compared to
IRB infra (5700 lane kms) portfolio. However, due to varied ownership of ITNL in
all road projects, ITNL owns around 7,000 lane kms out of 10,000 lane kms. ITNL
also has projects worth 1398 lane kms under L1 status and O&M contract for 31,000
lane kms by international subsidiary ELSAMEX.
Stages of Projects Annuity Toll Total
Operational 1,003 3,326 4,329
Under development 1,365 1,093 2,458
Pre development 2,256 9,73 3,229
Total 4,624 5,392 10,016
L1 stage 1,398
O&M contract under International Subsidiary 31,000
Total BOT 11,414
Total O&M 31,000
Source: Company, ACMIIL Research
12000
Operational projects
10000
8000
5392
Line Kms
6000
4419
4000
3078 3326 3326
2000 4624
3117
1003 1176 1283
0
2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
Annuity Toll
Source: Company, ACMIIL Research
Projects Ratio
Stages of Projects Annuity Toll
Operational 23% 77%
Under development 56% 44%
Pre development 70% 30%
Total 46% 54%
Source: Company, ACMIIL Research
8000 7536
54%
in lane Km
6000 59%
4609
4081 4502
4000
72% 46%
75% 74%
2000 41%
25% 26% 28%
0
2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
Operational projects
Source: Company, ACMIIL Research
Strategy is to build largest project portfolio by efficient use of resources
ITNL is focusing on building a large portfolio. To fasten scaling up of portfolio,
ITNL has outsourced civil construction work. ITNL does not have to look after civil
construction of projects under construction phase. Auction strategy has also helped
ITNL to use their resources effectively as auction has not only reduced the risk from
toll based revenue but also saved the resources which would have been directed for
toll management of those projects. As a result, ITNL will be able to manage large
number of project simultaneously with lesser resources required. This strategy has
helped ITNL to have upper hand on IRB in terms of project winning capability.
Projects awarded in 2009-10 ITNL’s project pipeline for 2010-11
Project BOT Type Length Estimated Project BOT Type Length Estimated
(lane Kms) Cost (` in mn) (lane Kms) Cost (` in mn)
Road Sector Chennai to Nashri in J&K Annuity 38 39,842
Hazaribagh to Ranchi Annuity 319 8,692 Jorbat to Shillong in North East Annuity 262 8,240
Pune to Sholapur Toll 571 14,027 Narkattpally to Addanki in AP Toll 888 17,289
Moradabad to Bareilly Toll 522 19,836 Madhya Pradesh Entry Point Project Entry Fee - 10,940
JARDP Annuity 466 14,078 Total 1,188 76,311
Mega Highways - II Toll 698 7,500 Lowest / Preferred Bidder
Chandrapur Warora Toll 275 7,000 Almaty to Khorgos in Kazakhastan Toll / Annuity 1,212 98,400
Sub-Total (Lane Kms) 2,851 71,133 Udhampur to Ramban in J&K Annuity 186 15,000
Rail Sector Total 1,212 113,400
Gurgaon Metro Rail BOOT 4.9 11,000
Sub-Total (Kms) 4.9 11,000 Total Project Cost 189,711
Bus Transport Sector Source: Company, ACMIIL Research
Nagpur City Bus Transportation 300 Buses 180
Sub-Total 300 Buses 180
Total 82,313
Source: Company, ACMIIL Research
Strong support from promoter IL&FS, one of the largest NBFC in infrastruc-
ture lending segment
ITNL’s promoter IL&FS gives added advantage to its position during bidding for
new projects or approaching lenders for financing options. Due to strong history of
IL&FS in India, it enjoys strong brand recognition. Parent support provides ITNL
with opportunities to negotiate bilateral contracts with state and central government
entities seeking customized proposals. Strong support has also helped ITNL to qualify
for financially large size project.
Strong order book dictates a clear visibility of EPC business for going for-
ward: Valued at ` 170 per share.
ITNL has EPC order book of ` 134.6 bn (ITNL’s proportionate share) as on 31st
October 2010 executable in next 2-3 years. Out of total order book, EPC work for
projects awarded before Q2 FY11 is ` 114 bn, EPC order for projects awarded after
Q2 FY11 is ` 5.6bn and remaining order worth ` 15 bn is for project under L1 status.
Almaty to Khorgos project is not included in the order book, since this project is still
under negotiation stage. This strong order book provides clear visibility for revenue
from EPC business for year FY11E-FY13E. We have valued this business based on
P/E multiple. We have assumed multiple of 6x to FY12E EPS and valued at ` 170
per share.
EPC work pending to be executed (ITNL proportionate share) (` million)
Projects awarded till last quarter 114,000
Projects awarded after Sep 30, 2010 5,600
Projects where ITNL have emerged as L1 (excluding Almatty to Horgos project) 15,000
Total EPC order pending to be executed 134,600
Source: Company, ACMIIL Research
However, high EPC revenues will lead to high leverage and so will impact
margins
Increase in EPC revenue will demand more funds and we expect ITNL will fund most
of its requirement through debt. As a result, debt to equity ratio is expected to rise
to 2:1 in FY10 to 3.9:1 by FY14E. We also expect that average margins are likely
to fall due to increase in revenue contribution from EPC business, as EPC business
has lower margin compared to other business. EBIDTA margin is expected to fall
from 42% in FY10 to 35% in FY13E and PAT margin is expected to fall from 14%
in FY10 to 7% in FY13E.
Road BOT segment is valued at ` 125 per share-value is diversified among
all projects
Based on FCFE model, we have valued all the BOT projects and arrived at valuation
of ` 125 per share. Out of 20 projects, 9 projects are valued in range of ` 5-15 per
share, together they contribute ` 85 or 68% of total value arrived from BOT business.
This shows that ITNL is not highly dependent on any one project unlike IRB infra
which is highly dependent on Mumbai-Pune express way (contributing ` 40 of `
128 from BOT business). Poor performance of any of these projects will have little
impact on over all valuation. We have not valued Chhattisgarh highway project and
Mega Highways Project, Rajasthan (phase 2) due to lack of clarification from the
management. However, if valued at present value of equity investment, both the
projects will contribute additional ` 8 per share (` 6. 5 and ` 1.5 per share respectively)
to total value of road BOT segment.
Financial valuation
The company reported net sales of `24130 mn at consolidated level, up by 97%
y.o.y basis. Of these nearly ` 8000 mn are from technical fees (engineering service
income), `10,000 mn is from its subsidiary Elsamex, around `2,000 mn is the domestic
O&M income, around `2,500 mn is the annuity income from toll collection and the
remaining is the toll based revenues. EBIDTA has increased by 193% to ` 8,786 in
FY10 against `3,000 in FY09. EBIDTA margin has also increased by 12% to 35%
in FY10. Increase in EBIDTA and EBIDTA margin was result of base effect as FY09
result was poor on account of consolidation of ELSAMEX. PAT has also gone up 10
fold to `3383 mn in FY10 from `321 mn in FY09.
Growth and margins
90000 80%
72%
80000 70%
70000 60%
60000
50%
in ` mm
Peer Group
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
We have compared both the companies based on our future estimation related to their
performance. Both the companies are expected to grow at nearly same rate at 50%
CAGR (2010- 2013). However, EBIDTA of ITNL is expected to grow faster than
IRB. We expect EBIDTA of ITNL to grow at CAGR (2010-2013) of 43% against 34%
in case of IRB. Growth rate in PAT is also expected to be higher in ITNL, CAGR of
21% against CAGR of 19% for IRB. ITNL has more number of projects in various
phase of development, which will generate high EPC revenue. However, this high
EPC revenue will cause increase in leverage for ITNL and hence will impact margins
going forward. Although IRB is also going through similar phase for its new projects,
but it has lesser projects under same phase compared to ITNL.
Recommendation
We are initiating coverage on IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd. with “Buy”
recommendation based on SOTP valuation with target price of ` 321. We have
valued BOT projects at value of ` 125 per share, EPC business is valued at of ` 170
per share, ELSAMEX SA (an international subsidiary) is valued at ` 22 per share and
other non-road projects are valued at ` 4.5 per share. On account of revenue from 22
road BOT projects and strong EPC order book, we expect the revenues to register
a CAGR of 51% over FY10 – FY13E. With impressive track record of winning
projects in past and current huge opportunities in road infrastructure segment (` 85
bn in RFP stage and ` 761 bn in RFQ stage), we expect ITNL to further enhance its
current road portfolio of 10,000 kms. However, high EPC revenues having lower
margins and higher leverage will impact margins.
Recommendation
Road Valuation NPV (` Mn) Value per Share (`) COE (%)
North Karnataka Expressway FCFE 484.3 2.5 13%
West Gujarat Expressway FCFE 1,111.7 5.7 13%
Noida Toll Bridge FCFE 1,613.4 8.3 13%
Gujarat Road And Infra Company Ltd FCFE 3,764.4 19.4 13%
Andhra Pradesh Expressway FCFE 948.0 4.9 13%
Ramky Elsamex Hyderabad Ring Road FCFE 222.2 1.1 13%
Thiruvananthapuram City Roads (Phase I) FCFE 92.1 0.5 13%
Mega Highways Project Rajasthan FCFE 1,663.0 8.6 13%
Thiruvananthapuram P2,3 FCFE 57.2 0.3 13%
East Hyderabad Expressway Ltd FCFE 719.7 3.7 13%
Beawar Gomti Road FCFE 686.0 3.5 13%
Jharkhand Accelerated Road Development Programme FCFE 1,705.3 8.8 13%
Hazaribagh Ranchi Road FCFE 373.8 1.9 13%
Pune Sholapur Road FCFE 1,844.9 9.5 13%
Chandrapur Warora Road Project FCFE 680.5 3.5 13%
Moradabad to Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh FCFE 2,371.7 12.2 13%
Chenani - Nashria Road FCFE 3,077.8 15.8 13%
Jorabat Shillong Road FCFE 501.7 2.6 13%
Narketpally - Addanki - Medarametla FCFE 2,292.3 11.8 13%
Total 124.6
EPC P/E multiple 169.6 6X FY12E
Non road projects BV 4.6 1X FY10
ELSAMEX BV 22.0 1X FY10
Total 320.8
Assumption: Expected market return: 14%, Risk free rate: 8%, Beta = 0.85 (10 years average for Noida Toll)
Source: ACMIIL Research, Company
Financial
Profit & Loss Account ` Mn
Particulars FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E
Revenue 12,253.7 24,028.8 36,978.0 60,337.4 81,985.4
Total Expenditure 10,320.4 16,087.6 25,587.8 43,097.8 58,875.2
Operating Profit 1,933.3 7,941.2 11,390.2 17,239.6 23,110.2
Other Income 1,066.4 843.7 1,294.2 2,111.8 2,869.5
EBIDTA 2,999.7 8,784.9 12,684.4 19,351.4 25,979.7
Depreciation 353.0 603.1 1,479.3 3,421.6 5,948.3
EBIT 2,646.7 8,181.9 11,205.1 15,929.8 20,031.4
Interest 1,743.0 2,940.9 5,299.9 8,359.6 10,974.3
EBT 903.8 5,241.0 5,905.2 7,570.2 9,057.2
Taxes 482.6 1,857.9 1,948.7 2,498.2 2,988.9
PAT before Extra ordinary item 421.2 3,383.1 3,956.5 5,072.0 6,068.3
Extra ordinary item 126.8 -87.3 49.6 74.3 86.1
PAT Before Minority Interest 294.4 3,470.3 3,906.8 4,997.7 5,982.2
Minority Interest 31.8 26.4 -115.0 -189.4 -125.7
PAT 262.6 3,443.9 4,021.8 5,187.1 6,107.9
Growth in revenue (%) 238.9 96.1 53.9 63.2 35.9
Growth in Operating profits (%) 5.6 310.8 43.4 51.4 34.1
Growth in PAT (%) -71.8 1,211.3 16.8 29.0 17.8
OPM (%) 15.8 33.0 30.8 28.6 28.2
Net Profit Margin (%) 2.1 14.3 10.9 8.6 7.5
Source: ACMIIL Research, Company
Balance Sheet ` Mn
Particulars FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E
Sources of Funds
Share Capital 1,714.2 1,942.7 1,942.7 1,942.7 1,942.7
Reserves and Surplus 7,148.0 14,743.7 18,424.6 23,270.8 29,037.7
Total Shareholders Funds 8,862.1 16,686.4 20,367.2 25,213.4 30,980.4
Total Loan Funds 18,891.9 33,565.2 63,408.7 90,111.0 121,881.3
Deferred Tax Liability 647.1 778.7 778.7 778.7 778.7
Minority interest 773.7 1,118.3 1,003.3 813.9 688.1
Advanced towards capital of subsidiary 453.8 450.0 450.0 450.0 450.0
Total Capital Employed 29,628.6 52,598.6 86,007.9 117,367.0 154,778.6
Application of Funds
Gross Block 11,163.8 19,134.4 32,098.7 49,449.9 70,853.0
Less: Accumulated Depreciation 2,630.5 2,954.6 4,433.9 7,855.5 13,803.8
Net Block 8,533.3 16,179.8 27,664.8 41,594.4 57,049.2
Capital Work in Progress 81.2 56.8 - - -
Investments 2,010.2 4,543.7 4,543.7 4,543.7 4,543.7
Net Current Assets 6,932.9 15,160.7 29,402.3 31,731.3 34,405.8
Receivable under service Concession agreement 7,317.6 12,048.8 19,788.4 34,888.8 54,171.1
Goodwill on consolidation 2,854.8 2,710.1 2,710.1 2,710.1 2,710.1
Toll receivable account 1,898.7 1,898.7 1,898.7 1,898.7 1,898.7
Total Assets 29,628.6 52,598.6 86,007.9 117,367.0 154,778.6
Source: ACMIIL Research, Company
Ratios
Particulars FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E
Growth Potential
Inventory Turnover 55.0 82.4 36.5 36.5 36.5
Inventory Turnover - Days 6.6 4.4 10.0 10.0 10.0
A/R Turnover 1.6 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.8
A/R Turnover - Days 234.5 98.4 105.0 100.0 95.0
Creditors Turnover 1.4 2.5 3.0 2.9 2.8
Creditors Turnover - Days 265.5 147.9 120.0 125.0 130.0
Gross Fixed Asset Turnover 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.4
Net Fixed Asset Turnover 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7
Profitability Ratios (%)
Net Sales Year Change 239% 96% 54% 63% 36%
Net Income Growth (PAT) -72% 1211% 17% 29% 18%
Gross Margin 24% 37% 34% 32% 32%
EBIDTA Growth 16% 193% 44% 53% 34%
EBIDTA Margin 31% 43% 38% 36% 35%
Pretax Margin 7% 22% 16% 13% 11%
PAT Margin 2% 14% 11% 9% 7%
Return on Assets 1% 7% 5% 4% 4%
Return on Equity 3% 21% 20% 21% 20%
Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) 10% 16% 13% 14% 13%
Debt Factors
Debt to Assets (%) 64% 64% 74% 77% 79%
Debt/Equity 2.1 2.0 3.1 3.6 3.9
CFO to Debt (%) 4% 19% 8% 16% 21%
Per Share Data
EPS 1.5 17.7 20.7 26.7 31.4
P/BV 5.2 3.1 2.6 2.1 1.8
Book Value per share 51.7 85.9 104.8 129.8 159.5
P/E 174.6 15.1 12.9 10.0 8.9
Dividend per share 1.3 3.0 1.5 1.5 1.5
Source: ACMIIL Research
ANNEXURE
The company follows peculiar accounting treatment for the annuity-based projects under Guidance Note on Accounting for Service
Concession Arrangements by ICAI, which is as follows
Yes
Yes Yes
Does the operator have a contractual right to receive cash or other Does the operator have a contractual right to charge users of
financial asset from or at direction of the grantor? the public services?
No
Yes Yes
Operator recognises a financial asset to the extent that it has a Operator recognises an intangible asset to the extent that it has a
contractual right to receive cash or another financial asset (AS 30) contractual right to receive an intangible asset (AS 28)
3.58
3 3.32
5% 4%
2 5%
1.75 2%
1
1.20 1.04 1.03
0 0.94 0.81 0%
n
ce
ina
ia
da
ia
a
A
il
pa
ali
US
n
Ind
ss
az
na
Fra
Ch
Ja
Ru
str
Br
Ca
Au
National highways contribute only 2% to Indian road network. However, it plays a vital role in handling traffic on Indian roads.
National highways alone handle 40% of traffic compared to rural roads, which consist 80% of total road network and handles
only 20% traffic. State roads and major district roads, together handle 40% of traffic.
Indian Road Network
Road Type Length (lane % Share of Total Traffic Connectivity
kms) Length Distribution
National Highways/Expressways 144,353 4% 40% Union capital, state capitals, major ports and foreign highways.
State Highways 184,649 4% 40% Major centre within states and national highways.
Major and other District Roads 654,868 14% Main roads and rural roads.
Rural and Other Roads 2,650,000 78% 20% Production centre, markets, highways and railway station.
Project Roads Projects like irrigation, power, and mines.
Urban Roads Intra-city networking.
Village Roads Village to nearby markets.
Total 3,633,880 100% 100%
Source: NHAI, Crisil Research, ACMIIL Research
Assumption: For State Highways and Major and other District Roads - 40% are two lane, rest are singal lane
Notes:
Institutional Sales:
Ravindra Nath, Tel: +91 22 2858 3400
Kirti Bagri, Tel: +91 22 2858 3731
K.Subramanyam, Tel: +91 22 2858 3739
Email: instsales@acm.co.in
Institutional Dealing:
Email: instdealing@acm.co.in
Disclaimer:
This report is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon such. ACMIIL or
any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information
contained in the report. ACMIIL and/or Promoters of ACMIIL and/or the relatives of promoters and/or employees of ACMIIL may have interest/position, financial or
otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency we have incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should
however not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report
This document has been prepared by the Research Desk of Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd. and is meant for use of the recipient only and is not for
circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others. It should not be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.
The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We
may from time to time have positions in and buy and sell securities referred to herein.
SEBI Regn No: BSE INB 010607233 (Cash); INF 010607233 (F&O), NSE INB 230607239 (Cash); INF 230607239 (F&O)