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Feasibility Report, Modhumoti, Rev. - April-.2015-1
Feasibility Report, Modhumoti, Rev. - April-.2015-1
Feasibility Report, Modhumoti, Rev. - April-.2015-1
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(Revised) Feasibility Report on 20 MW Korotia - by pass Natural Gas Operated Power Plant , Tangail . Bangladesh
Project Company: Modhumoti Power Ltd. . Dt. April-2015 Page 2 of 19
8. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND TARIFF CALCULATION: ___________________________ 16
8.1 Basic Assumptions for Financial Analysis: _____________________________________ 16
8.1.1 Technical and Plant Performance Parameter: ____________________________________ 16
8.1.2 Construction Period, Commercial Operation Date (COD) __________________________ 16
8.1.3 Plant Capacity: _____________________________________________________________ 16
8.1.4 Plant Load Factor and Salable energy: __________________________________________ 17
8.1.5 Economic Lifetime, Concession Period and Residual Value _________________________ 17
8.1.6 Operation and Maintenance Cost: ______________________________________________ 17
8.1.6.1 Fixed O & M Cost: ________________________________________________________ 17
8.1.6.1.1 Management and Administration of Project Company (RPC) ___________________ 17
8.1.6.1.2 Regular Operation & Maintenance of the Plant: ____________________________ 17
8.1.6.1.3 Long Term Service Agreement: _________________________________________ 17
8.1.6.1.4 Insurance: ___________________________________________________________ 18
8.1.6.2 Variable O & M Cost:____________________________________________________ 18
8.1.6.3 Fuel Cost: ______________________________________________________________ 18
8.2 Tariff Calculation: _________________________________________________________ 18
8.2.1 Base Cases: _________________________________________________________________ 18
8.2.2 Reference Tariff: ____________________________________________________________ 19
(Revised) Feasibility Report on 20 MW Korotia - by pass Natural Gas Operated Power Plant , Tangail . Bangladesh
Project Company: Modhumoti Power Ltd. . Dt. April-2015 Page 3 of 19
COMMENT FROM THE CONSULTANT ON REVISED
FEASIBILITY REPORT:
Feasibility Report for this Power Plant was initially prepared considerable days
before.. ue to some unavoidable reason, the Project execution work has been
delayed. In such long gap of time , change in different Assumed / Concerned
data / parameters has come into being. As such this has become necessary to
prepare a revised Feasibility report accommodating contemporary Government
Policy, Change of Exchange rate, Gas Price , and other related Technical –
Political & Commercial issues.
In view of the above , this Revised Feasibility Report has been prepared.
(Revised) Feasibility Report on 20 MW Korotia - by pass Natural Gas Operated Power Plant , Tangail . Bangladesh
Project Company: Modhumoti Power Ltd. . Dt. April-2015 Page 4 of 19
1. Executive Summary
1.1. Introduction
Modhumoti Power Ltd. (MPL) intends to develop a privately financed ,built , owned &
operated CIPP (CIPP: Commercial Independent Power Producer) project in Korotia ,
Tangail, Bangladesh to improve the reliability of power supply and to provide undisturbed,
reliable and quality power supply to the concerned client(s) . The generated energy will be
purchased by Tangail PBS, PRAN-RFL GROUP and other interested Industrialists, which
(Power) will be supplied to the concerned Industries through the existing Transmission
network of utility to any locations in Bangladesh .
MPL planned to set up 20±10% MW Gas Engine Based Power Plant at Korotia , Tangail,
which will be extended subject to contract with the Private consumer and concerned
authority.. The Operating Fuel will be Natural Gas.
It is possible to complete the project within seven month of signing the PPA (Power
Purchase Agreement), LLA (Land Lease Agreement ) and IA (Implementation Agreement),
and Financial Closing , because plentiful Natural Gas is available in that Region, available
gas pressure at site is 300 PSI , Gas line located at 180 Feet from the Plant Site , the riser
is nearby the project site. The project is 200 M away from the 33 KV line having present
base load of 23 MW. Plant site is located beside Dhaka- Tangail Highway .15 MVA,10MVA
& 10MVA substation at Tangail, Kalihati and Balla respectively are connected with this 33
KV source line. Mirzapur 15MVA, Gorai 15 MVA , Delduar 10MVA including Sakhipur 10
MVA Substations could be interconnected for dispatching power from the proposed Plant
provided the capacity of the Plant is enhanced by another 20 MW.
MPL intends to prepare a Revised Feasibility Study for the development of the project by its
own people. Subject of the Study is to investigate the feasibility of the project on a Techno
Economical basis and to cover the Technical, Financial and Environmental aspects
necessary to judge on the viability of the Project.
1.2. Results:
1.2.1 Technical Findings:
(Revised) Feasibility Report on 20 MW Korotia - by pass Natural Gas Operated Power Plant , Tangail . Bangladesh
Project Company: Modhumoti Power Ltd. . Dt. April-2015 Page 5 of 19
1.5 - 2 MW capacity Gas engine is available for quick delivery. The equipment to be
transported by road. For 20±10% MW power Plant ,13 nos. Engine could be chosen.
However MPL may consider to go for other brand / capacity gensets provided
those are found efficient and have other Technical-Commercial benefit , and better
environmental friendly.
The Power Evacuation from Power Plant to PBS site can be chosen as follows:.
Connection to the 33 KV line which is 200 M away from the Plant site.
By Expansion of 3.5 KM 33 KV line by REB, will lead to 40 MW. base load of
the line, and as such the Power Plant can go for expansion.
(Revised) Feasibility Report on 20 MW Korotia - by pass Natural Gas Operated Power Plant , Tangail . Bangladesh
Project Company: Modhumoti Power Ltd. . Dt. April-2015 Page 6 of 19
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1 PROJECT BACKGROUND
Bangladesh is presently facing acute shortage of power and there are severe load
shedding in the country. This is threatening to the agriculture, industry, commerce as well as
the whole economy. Uninterrupted electricity supply can help in achieving socio-economic
development through expanding opportunity of employments and industrialization. To help
reduction in the present power crisis , Modhumoti Power Ltd. (MPL) is planning to install a
20±10% Gas Engine base Power plant at Korotia by pass , for supplying power to Tangail
PBS and PRAN-RFL GROUP FACTORIES including other Interested industries / clients..
Modhumoti Power Ltd.,, incorporated in Bangladesh on 31.12.94 under the laws of the country to
Finance, Build, Own , Operate & Maintain power generation projects with business philosophy and
principles
The company plans to run the Power Plant with wide experienced ( in Overseas and local
Power Stations) professionals in power Plant Development , Design, Installation , Testing,
Commissioning and Operation and Maintenance having an excellent track record of
experiences. The company hence comes up as dependable Commercial Independent
Power Producers (CIPP) in the country having 100% local ownership, which is considered
as the Forerunner in this Special Power Producing sector.
(Revised) Feasibility Report on 20 MW Korotia - by pass Natural Gas Operated Power Plant , Tangail . Bangladesh
Project Company: Modhumoti Power Ltd. . Dt. April-2015 Page 7 of 19
The Debt part of the project is expected to be contributed by the different Loan financer /
Syndicate loan financing/ Foreign Investor. For further debt requirements Local commercial
bank involvement is considered.
3 DEMAND FORECAST:
3.1 The Demand Situation and Development of Tangail PBS and
PRAN-RFL GROUP / Industrialist
The extent and growth of electricity demand of potential purchasers is crucial for financial
and economic viability of the Korotia , Tangail Power Plant Project. The demand situation of
Tangail PBS is increasing day by day. The load demand and actual consumption at Peak
Hour of Tangail PBS is as follows:
Table 3.1 Present Demand and Actual Availability of load at Peak Hour of Tangail PBS.
Table 3.2 Present Demand and Actual Availability of load at Peak Hour of ( Concerned
Factories only) Pran RFL Group.
On the above situation it could be noted that by installing the power plant of 20±10% MW at
Tangail, total load shedding of the mentioned area / consumers could be minimized. More
over new new private customers / industrialist will come up to get supply from CIPP since
the power supply will be uninterrupted , and would provide quality power, which will reduce
the production cost, increase production and enhance the life of the costly equipment /
machineries.
(Revised) Feasibility Report on 20 MW Korotia - by pass Natural Gas Operated Power Plant , Tangail . Bangladesh
Project Company: Modhumoti Power Ltd. . Dt. April-2015 Page 8 of 19
Korotia , Tangail Power Station shall be built by MPL for more or less the exclusive supply of
electricity for PBS and PRAN RFL Group including other potential industrialists (who wants
uninterrupted power for their industries) , who currently receive electricity from BPDB / PBS.
The electricity is intended to be sold under direct PPAs by and between MPL and REB,
and MPL and PRAN-RFL GROUP & MPL and Other interested.
It is envisaged that a standard PPA between MPL and PBS shall be developed, which shall
eflect individual issues accordingly , but will be very much simplified with respect to PPA of
the other existing Power Plant. The minimum term shall be 15 years, preferably longer.
(Revised) Feasibility Report on 20 MW Korotia - by pass Natural Gas Operated Power Plant , Tangail . Bangladesh
Project Company: Modhumoti Power Ltd. . Dt. April-2015 Page 10 of 19
The Plant shall be designed for the following average site conditions.
filled up by about in average 15 feet and embanked the site level will be at
equilibrium to the highway passing beside.
There are about 1.86 acre area owned by Tangail PBS, on which the plant can be installed.
It is assumed that the whole area for the Gas Engine power Plant of approximately about
1.3 acre will have to be filled about by 15 feet to meet with the high way, for creating a safe
operating / working level for the planned power plant.
(Revised) Feasibility Report on 20 MW Korotia - by pass Natural Gas Operated Power Plant , Tangail . Bangladesh
Project Company: Modhumoti Power Ltd. . Dt. April-2015 Page 11 of 19
4.1.3. Site Access:
Land access for the site exists through a turning road from the high way, This turning can be
developed directly from high way
The following table shows the estimated water demand /availability for the project:
For washing Dematerialized water, produce from filtered
well water
Service water System filtered deep well water
Portable water system filtered deep well water
The main cooling of the Engine will be done by closed cooling system (Radiator Cooling) as
the environment is dusty, so cooling Tower will not effective for this purpose.
The raw water for cooling make up water could be taken from deep tube wells drilled at the
proposed site area.. The well water has to be chlorinated before the sand filters and in the
clear water basin to avoid organic growth within the water systems.
Special attention has to be drawn to the environment of the power plant, when considering
the respective air quality for the design of the air inlet system.
The main filtering equipment, louvers and mist separators need to be installed in the air inlet
system. Furthermore a bird grid is necessary to avoid birds or other big objects entering in
the air inlet filtering system. After that a coarse filter need to be installed before the air
reaches the main filter stage(s) of the air inlet filter system.
The Gas engine shall be supplied with contractor’s standard equipment and standard design
of Manufacturer. The investment can be minimized when applying this standard design. The
Gas Engine shall include the following facilities:
(Revised) Feasibility Report on 20 MW Korotia - by pass Natural Gas Operated Power Plant , Tangail . Bangladesh
Project Company: Modhumoti Power Ltd. . Dt. April-2015 Page 12 of 19
"
Generating Sets: Consists of Electrical System
o Engine o Main Switchgear
o generator o station Service System
o Base Frame o DC System
o elastic mounting o Earthing System
o Couplings o outdoor Switchyard
o Connections
o Platforms.
Mechanical Auxiliary System Automation System
o Auxiliary Module o Operator stations
o Fuel System o Control Panels
o Lubricating Oil System
o Cooling System
o Charge Air System
o Exhaust System
o Station Support System
o Oily Water System Cables & Accessories
o Water Treatment System
o Fir Fighting System
6 Project Risks:
There are different approaches towards the definition, identification and mitigation of project
risks. The following section in general considers pre-completion and post-completion risks
and the following individual categories:
Completion Risk
Technology Risk
Market Risk
Operating Risk
Force Majeure
Environmental Risk
Not yet considered are risks resulting from the project financing, like funding risk and
syndication risk, as well as the general legal and political risk categories.
(Revised) Feasibility Report on 20 MW Korotia - by pass Natural Gas Operated Power Plant , Tangail . Bangladesh
Project Company: Modhumoti Power Ltd. . Dt. April-2015 Page 13 of 19
Risks can be handled in five ways:
Controlled or shared, as in a contract
Financed, such as through standby loans
Deemed reduced, as per study results
Avoided altogether, or
Allocated to new party or another to cover, support, or absorb
Due to the availability of sufficient gas as well as high pressure at the gas line at site , the
project has been planned for Gas Operated . The project cost has been according to the gas
based system, which will also include extension of 33 KV line at various location for supply
to 33 KV Grid and supply to Customer, setting up of substations for the customer / (PRAN-
RFL GROUP) . Base cost components of a power plant project typically consists of the
following:
Investment Cost
Owner Cost
The investment cost estimates for the major items, have been taken from the renowned
company’s prices. Investment cost can be subdivided as follows:
Table 7.1 Investment Cost for the Gas Engine Power Plant:
Gas Engine
Auxiliary System
132 KV switchyard
switchgears USD.30 M
piping
cabling
power house & utility Block
fuel treatment house
transportation
02 On Shore Portion
Supply of local Equipment and BDT. 9 M
Material
02 On Shore Portion
BDT. 295 M
(Revised) Feasibility Report on 20 MW Korotia - by pass Natural Gas Operated Power Plant , Tangail . Bangladesh
Project Company: Modhumoti Power Ltd. . Dt. April-2015 Page 14 of 19
Local Transport
Installation
Civil Works
Basic Project Cost USD. 43.21 M
(Revised) Feasibility Report on 20 MW Korotia - by pass Natural Gas Operated Power Plant , Tangail . Bangladesh
Project Company: Modhumoti Power Ltd. . Dt. April-2015 Page 15 of 19
7.1.2 Estimation of Owner Cost:
The owner cost estimates the project development cost, Project implementation super
vision, initial working capital. The followings are considered in the owner cost:
Site Preparation
Insurance
20±10% Gas Engine base Power plant: 7 months after signing of PPA, LLA and IA, Financial
closing ,whichever comes later.
The dependable capacity of the power plant is the net capacity, which can be made
available for sale to the power purchaser. This net generation capacity does not significantly
change with the ambient condition up to 450C. So the capacity of the power plant will be
almost same throughout the year, rather this may increase to some extent when the ambient
temperature will be remarkably below 450C.
(Revised) Feasibility Report on 20 MW Korotia - by pass Natural Gas Operated Power Plant , Tangail . Bangladesh
Project Company: Modhumoti Power Ltd. . Dt. April-2015 Page 16 of 19
8.1.4 Plant Load Factor and Saleable energy:
The power plant is assumed to be operated as a base load plant with an average Plant Load
Factor of 80% for the entire operation period as the growing demand of Tangail PBS
The variable O&M considers costs, which originate directly from the power production
process, like lube oil and other consumables, maintenance and repair related to operational
hours of the system, etc. This cost is expressed as cost per kWh produced.
New employee should be recruited for the operation and maintenance of the plant consisting
of Plant Manager, Operation and Maintenance Managers General Mangers, O & M staff,
administrative staff, security and support staffs like helpers, cleaners, and drivers. This cost
is estimated as follows:
(Revised) Feasibility Report on 20 MW Korotia - by pass Natural Gas Operated Power Plant , Tangail . Bangladesh
Project Company: Modhumoti Power Ltd. . Dt. April-2015 Page 17 of 19
It is suggested to get the service by own personnel, giving them proper training as well as
reasonably good salary. This will ultimately result less cost than the figure mentioned above.
In addition to that the plant Technical staffs will get trained and become highly skilled.
8.1.6.1.4 Insurance:
In order to avoid any shortcomings in the insurance coverage of the owner, cost for owners
insurance for liability. Property all risk, machine breakdown and loss of revenue through
business interruption is assumed as follows
The variable cost for O&M (maintenance equipment, consumables, like lube oil
consumption, as well as e.g. chemicals for water analyses, water treatment, gas analyses,
etc.) assuming the annual generation resulting from plant capacity and Plant Load Factor is
estimated as follows:
(Revised) Feasibility Report on 20 MW Korotia - by pass Natural Gas Operated Power Plant , Tangail . Bangladesh
Project Company: Modhumoti Power Ltd. . Dt. April-2015 Page 18 of 19
8.2.2 Reference Tariff:
Tariff Considering the 15 years operation on (1) 80% plant Factor ,(2) reference CPI, (3)
Dollar Exchange rate ,(4) Fuel Price, (5) BDT Devaluation , etc., as detailed in PPA
(DRAFT)
Note: Natural Gas is the pass-through item. If Gas price increase, then the tariff will be
increased accordingly, which will be calculated on the Net Heat Rate of the Power Plant..
_______________________
(Engr. A.T.Kabir Uddin Ahmed)
TECHNO-FINANCIAL Consultant.
E-mail: star.cartel@yahoo.com
Tel: (+88-02)-8129252
Cell: +88-01750130712
(Revised) Feasibility Report on 20 MW Korotia - by pass Natural Gas Operated Power Plant , Tangail . Bangladesh
Project Company: Modhumoti Power Ltd. . Dt. April-2015 Page 19 of 19