Ukraine

Conflict-
Individua
l Level of
Analysis
Nourhan
Mohamed El-
Menyawy

To: Doctor Ayman

ElDessouki
 :Background of the Conflict
The Conflict began in protests in 2013 against Ukrainian President who
rejected a deal with European Union for Economic integration; with the
violence of security forces so the conflict was escalated between who
support European Union and who support Russia leading to ousting the
.Ukrainian president who is follower of Russia
In March 2014, Russians took control of Ukraine after Crimean voted to
join Russia in local voting so Russia annexed this city claiming to protect
.its port access to the black sea
The crisis was escalated more by declaring independence of pro-Russians
.in Donetsk and Luhansk regions from Ukraine
There was violence between these pro-Russians and Ukraine Military
force killing more than 14,000 people and injuring more than 24,000
.1person
Ukraine believed that Russia got involved to help the pro-Russians while
Russia Denied this so this conflict was escalated into international crisis
as NATO, US and EU were against Russia involvement that’s why EU
.added sanctions on Russia on oil and banking sector
Then in 2018, Russia attacked Ukrainian ships in Crimean port near the
black sea which Ukraine saw this as violation which made NATO
.increased its military presence in the area
Till now, there are no prospects of lasting settlement to conflict except
with Minsk deal stating: Ukraine could re-control the separatists regions
.if they won in local elections and people wanted this
But from time to time, we witness attacks between the two countries as
.Russians till now support rebels against Ukraine

Global Conflict Tracker, Conflict in Ukraine, access date: 18/11/2020 1

https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine
Ukraine has undergone lots of cyber attacks against the government and
.economy which arouse many suspicions against Russia
:I will focus on Individual level of analysis
:Putin View
According to Putin; he didn’t like the overthrowing of his ally Viktor -
Yanukovych in Ukraine which made pro-western took the Ukraine
.government after this
After Economic Integration deal of Ukraine with EU which made Putin
support the pro-Russians to make Viktor return again in the power as he
was overthrown because of his mismanagement finically and his rejection
.to EU deal
Putin doesn’t like this EU integration as Ukraine wants to expand its
natural gas market to the west which was perceived as threat to Russia
.itself and its economy
Putin movement in Ukraine made him so successful in the eyes of -
Russian people as his popularity rose to 80% that’s why he uses Ukraine
conflict as an opportunity for him to succeed despite the costs; and he is
totally sure that NATO won't protect Ukraine as its isn't member of the
2
.organization which encouraged him to attack Ukraine
There are many predictions that Putin wouldn’t mind at all to make a
.military operation in Ukraine if his popularity got declined in Russia
Putin believes that Ukraine was the economic contributor of the Soviet -
Union economy as Ukraine supplied the Soviet Union of heavy industrial
equipment and resource of raw materials so he doesn’t want Ukraine to
3
be supported by United States or even the European Union

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2019-02-07/putins-game-plan-ukraine 2
Konstantin Skorkin, Putin Game in Ukraine, Foreign Affairs, access date: 19/11/2020
Michael Boyle, Ukraine crisis explanation, balance, access date: 18/11/2020 3
https://www.thebalance.com/ukraine-crisis-summary-and-explanation-3970462
:Volodymyr Zelensky (Ukraine President) view
On the other hand, Volodymyr Zelensky Ukraine president who won in
2019
He promised the people to end the conflict and how to gain control -
4
again over these quasi-independent regions
Despite that he made this conflict as a top priority for him but he didn’t
.achieve much progress in settling this conflict
He is described from many Ukraine people that he is weak president who-
doesn’t have any political experience as he was actor before being
president and evidence for this, he made a political scandal by
exchanging prisoners between Russia and Ukraine; he exchanged many
!Russians who were known of big terrorist attacks in Ukraine
His statements are mainly about the mistake that was made for letting go-
of many Ukraine countries to be under the control of Russia that’s why he
believes that he will try to gain influence again by the international talks
.that are supported by France and Germany
He isn't supporter of Russia that’s why he wants to have a full -
membership on European Union and he doesn’t care about Putin
reactions for this5 but despite his frank statements; he doesn’t want to go
into any military operation against Russia or even trying to make them
.anger
That’s why his lack of consistency and his weakness made Ukraine
weaker in front of Russia who doesn’t abide by any comprise and still
6
.supports Rebels till now
Cease fire in Ukraine, Euro News, access date: 19/11/2020 4
https://www.euronews.com/2020/07/27/cease-fire-in-war-torn-eastern-ukraine-begins-after-six-years-
of-conflict
Sasha Vakulina, high chance of ending war, euro news, access date: 19/11/2020 5
https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/25/volodymyr-zelenskyy-high-chance-of-ending-war-in-ukraine-
this-year
Taras Kuzio, Russo- Ukraine war, Atlantic council, access date:19/11/2020 6
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russo-ukrainian-war-time-for-zelenskyy-to-turn-
/from-populism-to-pragmatism