WISCONSIN STATEWIDE – SURVEY MEMORANDUM

DATE: Monday, July 12, 2021

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Tiffany Beverly – Sr. Coordinator, Insights & Client Success
RE: Survey of Likely 2022 General Election Voters

The information below was gathered by Cygnal through an advanced multi-mode (SMS + Email + IVR)
survey of likely general election voters in Wisconsin, conducted July 6, 2021 – July 8, 2021. This survey
has a sample size of n640 and a MoE of ±3.87% at a 95% confidence interval.

Summary & Insights

Governor Evers is in a weak position for an incumbent heading into the 2022 elections. His image is
underwater, his job approval is lackluster, and over half of voters are ready for a new
governor—potentially, a Republican. Evers and the generic Republican are statistically tied on a
head-to-head ballot, and 52% of voters are less likely to support him for reelection based on his
unemployment benefit program stance.

Voters are less likely to vote for Evers both because of his refusal to adjust the unemployment benefit
program back to pre-pandemic standards and substantial increases in the Consumer Price Index (CPI),
energy prices, and food prices under his leadership.

The benefit program message strikes a chord with voters as employment issues are something they
see in their daily lives. 80% of Wisconsinites who own businesses or know someone who does have
personally experienced the issue of finding willing applicants to fill open positions. A plurality of voters
are concerned about rising inflation in the country, which makes the impacts of rising prices hit home.

Wisconsinites are disenchanted with the direction of the state and the country.
56% of voters in Wisconsin feel that the nation is off on the wrong track, and 60% feel the same about
the state. This indicates troubled waters for Evers not only because of the strength of this negative
sentiment (34% definitely wrong track), but because voters have a tendency to report a more favorable
sentiment about their home state than the country overall, which is not the case in Wisconsin.

Women, voters under 50, Independent voters, rural voters, and those with no college degree are
overwhelmingly unhappy with the direction of the state, but Republicans and conservatives are the
most displeased by far (84% and 82% wrong track, respectively).

Images for national Democratic leaders are net-negative...

President Biden’s image stands at a -6 net favorability rating, and VP Harris joins him at a net fav of -9.
Biden and Harris are both viewed unfavorably by Independents and non-college-educated voters, and
women are split on the President and Vice President. Biden’s job approval tracks with his overall image
and half of Wisconsin voters disapprove of the job he’s doing as president. Intensity is high (44%
strongly disapprove) and this sentiment is strongest among Republicans and conservatives.

… and Evers doesn’t fare much better.

Although Governor Evers isn’t quite drowning, he’s still underwater with a net favorability rating of -4.
Outside of the partisan rift (favorable with Dems & liberals, unfavorable with GOP and conservatives),
he’s upside down with Independents (-9), rural voters (-21), and those with no college degree (-28).
Women are split on the incumbent.

Overall, voters disapprove of Evers’ job performance, though the margin is tight (45% approve / 48%
disapprove). The sentiment is strongest among those who disapprove (36% strongly disapprove / 26%
strongly approve), and is driven by men, Republicans, Independents, conservatives, rural voters, and
non-college educated voters. Once again, women are split.

Despite the tight margin on his job approval, when asked if Governor Evers deserves reelection, over
half of respondents indicated that it’s time for someone new (52%) and intensity is high (44% definitely
someone new).

A generic Republican candidate statistically ties Gov. Evers on a ballot test.

Governor Evers’ lackluster job approval and reelection numbers shine through when he’s put up on a
ballot against a generic Republican. Evers and the GOP candidate are statistically tied (GOP 48% /
Evers 47%), and intensity is evenly matched (39% definitely GOP / 40% definitely Evers). Only 6% of
respondents are undecided. Gender, education, and age divides are all strong—women,
college-educated, and younger voters break for Evers, while men, those with no college degree, and
older voters break for the Republican candidate. Independents lean slightly towards a Republican
candidate.
Evers vs. Generic Republican Heatmap:

Evers’ refusal to budge on unemployment programs isn’t doing him any favors.

Governor Evers’ refusal to adjust the unemployment benefit program back to pre-pandemic standards
makes 52% of respondents are less likely to vote to reelect him as governor (46% much less). A
majority of independents (54%) and suburban voters (51%) are less likely to support Evers based on
his lack of action on this issue.

When asked about the respondent’s personal experience with employment issues, over three-quarters
indicated that they had heard of or experienced issues finding willing applicants to fill open positions.

The substantial increases in the Consumer Price Index, food, and energy prices under Governor Evers’
leadership also make voters less likely to support him for reelection (50% less likely). This information
makes majorities of independents, men, voters over 50, rural voters, and non-college-educated voters
less likely to vote for Evers, as well as a near-majority of suburban voters and voters under 50.

The vast majority of voters are concerned about inflation.

80% of respondents indicated that they are concerned about inflation, and intensity is high, with over
half indicating that they are “very concerned” (53%). While this sentiment holds across the board,
women, voters 50+, Republicans, conservatives, and those with no college degree are the most
concerned.

METHODOLOGY: This probabilistic survey was conducted July 6-8, with 640 likely general election voters. It
has a margin of error of ±3.87%. Known registered voters were interviewed via interactive voice response dialed
to landlines, and voters received invitations to participate in the survey via SMS and email with a secure link tied
to their voter record. This survey was weighted to a likely general universe.

ABOUT CYGNAL: Cygnal is an award-winning national public opinion and predictive analytics firm that pioneered
multi-mode polling, peer-to-peer text collection, and Political Emotive Analysis. Cygnal is named the #1
Republican private pollster by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight two cycles running, as well as the #1 most accurate
polling and research firm in the country for 2018 by The New York Times. Its team members have worked in 47
states and countries on more than 2,100 corporate, public affairs, and political campaigns.