Population

&
Economic growth
Contents
• Economic Growth

• Industrialization

• Urbanization

• Resource Consumption

• Renewable and Nonrenewable Resources

• Energy Requirement and Development.

Economic Growth
Economic growth is an increase in the amount of goods and services produced per
head of the population over a period of time.
(or)

Economic growth is the increase in the inflation-adjusted market value of the

goods and services produced by an economy over time.

It is conventionally measured as the percent rate of increase in real gross domestic

product, or real GDP (GDP per capita, which is also called per capita income).

• An increase in growth caused by more efficient use of inputs (such as physical

capital, population or territory) is referred to as intensive growth.

• GDP growth caused only by increases in the amount of inputs available for use is
called extensive growth.
 Example of Economic Growth
• For example, let's say that a special berry grows naturally only in
the country of Utopia. Natives to Utopia have used this berry for
many years, but recently a wealthy German traveller discovered the
berry and brought samples back to Germany. His German friends
also loved the berry, so the traveller funded a large berry exporting
business in Utopia.
• The new berry exporting business hired hundreds of Utopians to
farm, harvest, wash, box and ship the berries to grocers in
Germany.
• In one calendar year, the berry exporting business added over one
million dollars to Utopia's GDP because that's the total value of the
goods and services produced by the new berry exporting business.
• Since Utopia's GDP increased, this means that Utopia experienced
economic growth.
INDIAN ECONOMY
 India GDP
• The gross domestic product (GDP) measures of national income
and output for a given country's economy.

• The gross domestic product (GDP) is equal to the total

expenditures for all final goods and services produced within
the country in a stipulated period of time.

• The GDP value of India is roughly equivalent to 2.79 percent of

the world economy.
India GDP
India GDP
 India GDP Growth Rate
• The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate provides an
aggregated measure of changes in value of the goods and
services produced by an economy.

• India's diverse economy encompasses traditional village

farming, modern agriculture, handicrafts, a wide range of
modern industries, and a multitude of services.

• Services are the major source of economic growth, accounting

for more than half of India's output with less than one third of its
labor force.
India GDP Growth Rate
India GDP per capita
Factors that Affect The Economic Growth of a Country

1. Human Resource

2. Natural Resources

3. Capital Formation

4. Technological Development

5. Social and Political Factors

 Human Resource
• The quality and quantity of available human resource can directly
affect the growth of an economy.

• The quality of human resource is dependent on its skills, creative

abilities, training, and education. If the human resource of a country is
well skilled and trained then the output would also be of high quality.

• On the other hand, a shortage of skilled labour hampers the growth of

an economy, whereas surplus of labour is of lesser significance to
economic growth.

• Therefore, the human resources of a country should be adequate in

number with required skills and abilities, so that economic growth can
be achieved.
 Natural Resources
• Natural resources involve resources that are produced by nature either on the land or
beneath the land. The resources on land include plants, water resources and landscape.

• The resources beneath the land or underground resources include oil, natural gas,
metals, non-metals, and minerals.

• The natural resources of a country depend on the climatic and environmental

conditions.

• The efficient utilization or exploitation of natural resources depends on the skills and
abilities of human resource, technology used and availability of funds. A country
having skilled and educated workforce with rich natural resources takes the economy
on the growth path.
 Examples :

• The best examples of such economies are developed

countries, such as United States, United Kingdom, Germany,
and France.
• However, there are countries that have few natural resources,
but high per capita income, such as Saudi Arabia, therefore,
their economic growth is very high.
• Similarly, Japan has a small geographical area and few
natural resources, but achieves high growth rate due to its
efficient human resource and advanced technology.
Technological Development
• Technology involves application of scientific methods and production
techniques. In other words, technology can be defined as nature and type
of technical instruments used by a certain amount of labour.

• Technological development helps in increasing productivity with the

limited amount of resources.

• Countries that have worked in the field of technological development

grow rapidly as compared to countries that have less focus on
technological development.

• The selection of right technology also plays an role for the growth of an
economy. On the contrary, an inappropriate technology- results in high
cost of production
 Social and Political Factors
• Social factors involve customs, traditions, values and beliefs, which
contribute to the growth of an economy to a considerable extent.

• For example, a society with conventional beliefs and superstitions

resists the adoption of modern ways of living. In such a case, achieving
becomes difficult. Apart from this, political factors, such as
participation of government in formulating and implementing various
policies, have a major part in economic growth.
INDUSTRIALIZATION
AND
URBANIZATION
 What is Industrialization?
• It is a process of social and economic.
• Human group is transformed from a
pre-industrial society into an industrial one.
• It is a part of a wider modernisation process, where
social change and economic development are closely
related with technological innovation, particularly
with the development of large-scale energy and
metallurgy production.
• It is the extensive organisation of an economy for the
purpose of manufacturing.
What is Urbanization?
• Urbanization is the physical growth of urban areas
as a result of global change.
• Urbanization is also defined by the United
Nations as movement of people from rural to urban
areas with population growth equating to urban
migration.
• Urbanization is closely linked to modernization,
industrialization, and the sociological process of
rationalization.
History of Industrialization and Urbanization

• The first country to industrialize was Great Britain during the

Industrial Revolution.
• The first ever transformation to an industrial economy from
an agrarian one was called the Industrial Revolution and this
took place in the late 18th and early 19th centuries in a few
countries of Western Europe and North America, beginning
in Great Britain.
• The Second Industrial Revolution describes a later,
somewhat less dramatic change which came about in the
late 19th century with the widespread availability of electric
power, internal combustion engines, and assembly lines to
the already industrialised nations.
Industrialization is a cause of urbanization So, first
urbanized country is Great Britain
Industrialization & Urbanization:

The Boom
The boom
• New inventions found.
• The lack of an industrial sector in a country is
widely seen as a major handicap in improving a
country's economy, and power, pushing many
governments to encourage or enforce
industrialisation .
The boom
• The cost of products are reduced.
• Markets of all countries are opened to the products
of all companies
• Import &export increased.
• Import and Export plays main role in the
economical functions of countries
e.g. mangoes of INDIA. Globalization of country.
 The boom
• It helped to increase the human qualities & mass
production started.
• The use of natural sources started .
• New energies were searched to increase
industrialization process.
• More jobs were provided
• Encouraged migration to urbanised areas.
• New cities were formed.
• In new cities ,new types of services were started
Industrialization & Urbanization:

The Curse
The Curse
• Competition started between different countries
which has led to the identification of developed,
developing and Un-developed countries.
• Un-developed countries loosed their
independence.
• Money had started playing more important role.
The Curse
• Wages were increased.
• Living status of peoples were increased.
• Families were separated.
• The over migration to urban areas had exerted
excess stress on infrastructure
• Low income people started living in unhygienic
environment in urban areas
• Slum areas were increased in an unorganised
mannner
• Various diseases were spread.
RESOURCES
and
RESOURCE CONSUMPTION
What are resources?
• Anything that can be used to satisfy a need is a
resource.
For example: land, minerals, air, water, forest etc.
Value of a resource
• The purely economic value of a resource is
controlled by supply and demand.
• This is, however, a narrow perspective on resources
as there are many other things that cannot be
measured in money.
• Natural resources like forests, mountains etc. are
considered beautiful, so they have aesthetic value.
• Resources also have an ethical value as well,
because it is widely recognized that it is our moral
duty to protect and conserve them for the future
generations.
Characteristics of resources
Resources have three main characteristics: Utility
Quantity (often in terms of availability)
Consumption
However, this definition is not accepted by some, for
example deep ecologists who believe that non-
human elements are independent of human values.
Types of resources
• Natural resources:
• These are derived from the environment.
• Many of them are essential for our survival while
others are used for satisfying our needs.
• Natural resources may be further classified in
different ways;
on the basis of origin, resources may be divided
• Biotic
• Abiotic
Natural Resources
• Biotic resources are those obtained from the
biosphere.
• Forests and their products, animals, birds and their
products, fish and other marine organisms are
important examples.
• Minerals such as coal and petroleum are also
included in this category because they were formed
from decayed organic matter.
• Abiotic resources comprise non-living things.
• Examples: include land, water, air and minerals
such as gold, iron, copper, silver etc.
Biotic

Abiotic
Natural Resources
• On the basis of the stage of development, natural
resources may be called:
• Potential Resources - Potential resources are those
that exist in a region and may be used in the future.
• For example, mineral oil may exist in many parts of
India having sedimentary rocks, but until the time it
is actually drilled out and put into use, it remains a
potential resource.
 Natural Resources
• Stock are the materials in the environment which have the
potential to satisfy human needs but do not have the
appropriate technology to access them.
• For example, hydrogen and oxygen are two inflammable
gases present in water, but we do not have the technology to
use them from water.
• Reserved Resources are the subset of stock, where use has
not yet been started and are saved for future use.
• Actual resources- are those that have been surveyed, their
quantity and quality determined, and are being used in
present times. For example, petroleum and natural gas
obtained from the Mumbai High Fields.
 Natural Resources
• On the basis of renewability, natural resources can be
categorized into:
• Renewable Resources - Renewable resources are those that can
be replenished or reproduced easily. Some of them, like
sunlight, air, wind, etc., are continuously available and their
quantity is not affected by human consumption.
• Many renewable resources can be depleted by human use, but
may also be replenished, thus maintaining a flow.
• Some of these, like agricultural crops, take a short time for
renewal; others, like water, take a comparatively longer time,
while still others, like forests, take even longer.
 Natural Resources
• Non-renewable Resources –
• Non-renewable resources are formed over very
long geological periods.
• Minerals and fossils are included in this
category.
• Since their rate of formation is extremely slow,
they cannot be replenished once they are
depleted.
• Out of these, the metallic minerals can be re-
used by recycling them, but coal and petroleum
cannot be recycled.
• On the basis of distribution, natural
resources can be classified into:
• Ubiquitous resources- the resources
that can be found everywhere. For
example- air, light, water etc.
• Localized-are those that can be
found only in certain parts of the
world. For example-copper and iron
ore, coal etc.
Water Resources
Human resources
• Human beings are also considered to be resources.
• The term Human Resources can also be defined as
the skills, energies, talents, abilities and knowledge
that are used for the production of goods or the
rendering of services.
Resource conservation
• Using resources carefully and giving them time to get renewed
is called resource conservation.
• Balancing the need to use resources and also conserve them
for the future is called sustainable development.
• There are many ways of conserving resources. Each person can
contribute by reducing consumption, recycling and reusing
thing. Ultimately it makes a difference because all our lives are
linked.
• The future of our planet and its people is linked with our ability
to maintain and preserve the life support system that nature
provides.
• It is our duty to ensure that - All uses of renewable resources
are sustainable
• The diversity of life on the earth is conserved and the damage
to natural environmental system is minimized.
Resources in India
• India's inland water resources comprising rivers,
canals, ponds and lakes and marine resources
comprising the east and west coasts of the Indian
ocean and other gulfs and bays provide
employment to nearly 6 million people in the
fisheries sector.
• In 2008, India had the world's third largest fishing
industry
Resources in India
• India is rich in certain energy resources which
promise significant future potential - clean /
renewable energy resources like solar, wind, bio-
fuels.
• India's major mineral resources include Coal
(fourth-largest reserves in the world), Iron ore,
Manganese, Mica, Bauxite, Titanium ore, Cromite,
Natural gas, Diamonds, Petroleum, Limestone and
Thorium (world's largest along Kerala's shores).
• India's oil reserves, found in Bombay High off the
coast of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan and in
eastern Assam meet 25% of the country's demand.
Manganese ore Thorium
Titanium ore

Mica ore Limestone Bauxite ore

Energy
Renewable Energy
# 1. Why opt for renewable energy?
#2. What is the present status of renewables in India
and World?
# 3. What is the scope for renewable energy?
#4. What are the challenges and opportunities in
renewable energy?
Renewable Energy Options
Renewable Energy Options

Solar Small Tidal

Hydro Energy
Wind Biomass

Ocean Thermal
Energy
Wave
Solar Energy
Solar Thermal
Photovoltaic
Applications
• Power Generation
• Cooking
• Water Heating
• Refrigeration and Air Conditioning
• Distillation
• Drying
• Space Heating
Why Renewables?
• Present consumption pattern predominantly -fossil
fuel
• Limited fossil reserves
• Adverse environmental impacts
• Unsustainable
• Need for transition to clean technology renewable
energy, efficiency, nuclear
 GHG Emissions (Fuel Cycle Analysis)
CO2 g/kWh
• Coal Conventional 960 -1300
• Advanced Coal 800-860
• Oil 690-870
• Gas 460-1230 Source: John Holdren
• 9-100
Nuclear Kirk Smith, World Energy
37-166
• Biomass Assessment, UNDP,2001
30-150
• PV
2-410
• Hydro-electric
11-75
• Wind
OCEAN THERMAL POWER GENERATION
Tidal Energy
 Biomass Conversion Routes
BIOMASS

THERMOCHEMICAL BIOCHEMICAL

COMBUSTION GASIFICATION PYROLYSIS DIGESTION FERMENTATION

PRODUCER GAS
RANKINE BIOGAS ETHANOL
CYCLE

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURISED
Duel Fuel
SIPGE (Spark Ignition Producer Gas Engine)
Gas Turbines
Biomass gasification
Biogas
 Technology Options for Solar power
Solar Power

Thermal PV

Low Temp. Medium Temp. Up Material Production Process

High
<100 o C to 400 o C Line
Focusing Parabolic Temp. Single Crystal Silicon
Collectors >400 o C
Polycrystalline
Silicon
Solar Flat Plate Solar Chimney Solar Pond Amorphous Silicon
Collectors
CdTe/ GAAs

Parabolic Dish Central Tower Wafer Thin Film

Area for Power Generation

India’s present electricity

requirement approx. 500
billion kWh, can be met by
installing 2500 sq. km of
solar field.
A square of 50km x 50km,
or
4 smaller squares of 25km
x 25km.
Cooking with the Sun
Concentrators

live.pege.org Balcony system

Solar Cooking

http://gadhia-solar.com/images/steamsystem.jpg
 Solar Cooking

Double Community Cooker- Rishi Valley School

http://gadhia-solar.com/products/community.htm
 Solar Cooking - kitchen

Solar Kitchen Rishi Valley

http://gadhia-solar.com

mnes.nic.in/solar-stcooker.htm
 Solar Lanterns

www.ariesindustries.net/products.htm
www.tatabpsolar.com
Hybrid Systems
Challenges and opportunities in renewable energy?

• Cost effective Renewables

• Reliability
• Storage-Ultracapacitors, lithium ion batteries
• Low cost inverters
• Low rating Wind machines
• Innovative products
• Distributed power systems – Hybrid concepts,
matching supply and demand
• Novel materials for renewable energy systems
Resource Consumption
• Depend on steady flow of energy and materials to
meet our needs
• The materials are limited
• Our future depends on the availability of abundant
supplies of inexpensive, depletable energy
materials.
• When a material is extracted from earth, it is
termed as that “resource Produced (rather than
consumed)”
 Exponential Resource Production Rates
• If we plot the rate of production of a resource versus time, the
area under curve between any two times will represent the total
resource that has been produced during that interval.
Mathematically
We can also rewrite the equation as

Where T= The length of time required to produce an amount Q.

• Reserves are the quantities that can reasonably
assumed to exist and are producible with existing
technology under present economic conditions.
• Resources include present reserves as well as
deposits not yet discovered, or deposits that have
been identified but are not recoverable under
present technological and economic conditions.
A symmetrical Production curve
Q = Pm 2

Pm
t m =  2 ln
P0

tm=time at which thee max production rate occurs

σ = standard deviation, a measure of the width of the
bell shaped curve
• Ultimate total coal production is to double the
1995 recoverable reserves, which were estimated
at 268 billion tons. The coal production rate in 1995
was 1 billion ton/year. How long would it take to
reach a peak production rate equal to four times
the 1995 rate, if Guassian production curve is
followed?
POPULATION
FORECASTING
POPULATION FORECASTING
• Design of water supply and sanitation scheme is based on the
projected population of a particular city, estimated for the
design period.

• Any underestimated value will make system inadequate for

the purpose intended; similarly overestimated value will
make it costly.

• Changes in the population of the city over the years occur,

and the system should be designed taking into account of the
population at the end of the design period.
Factors affecting changes in population are:
• Increase due to births
• Decrease due to deaths
• Increase/ Decrease due to migration
• Increase due to annexation.
• The present and past population record for the city can be
obtained from the census population records.

• After collecting these population figures, the population at

the end of design period is predicted using various methods
as suitable for that city considering the growth pattern
followed by the city.
Methods for Population Forecasting

➢ Arithmetical Increase Method

➢ Geometrical Increase Method (or) Geometrical Progression Method

➢ Incremental Increase Method

➢ Graphical Method

➢ Comparative Graphical Method

➢ Master Plan Method (or) Zoning Method

➢ Logistic Curve Method

➢ Decreasing Growth Rate Method

 ARITHMETICAL INCREASE METHOD
• This method is suitable for large and old city with considerable
development.
• If it is used for small, average or comparatively new cities, it
will give lower population estimate than actual value.
• In this method the average increase in population per decade is
calculated from the past census reports. This increase is added
to the present population to find out the population of the next
decade. Thus, it is assumed that the population is increasing at
constant rate.
• Hence, dP/dt = C i.e., rate of change of population with respect
to time is constant.
Where,
Pn = P + n X Pn = population after ‘n’ decades
P = present population
X =Average increase per year (or) decade
n = number of decades
GEOMETRICAL INCREASE METHOD or
(GEOMETRICALPROGRESSION METHOD)
• In this method the percentage increase in population from
decade to decade is assumed to remain constant.
• Geometric mean increase is used to find out the future
increment in population.
• Since this method gives higher values and hence should be
applied for a new industrial town at the beginning of
development for only few decades.

Pn = P (1+ IG / 100)
n
IG = (Pr1*Pr2* Pr3*Pr4)1/n
IG = geometric mean (%)
P = Present population
N = no. of decades.
INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD
• This method is modification of arithmetical increase method
• It is suitable for an average size town under normal condition
where the growth rate is found to be in increasing order.
• While adopting this method the increase in increment is
considered for calculating future population.
• The incremental increase is determined for each decade from
the past population and the average value is added to the
present population along with the average rate of increase.
• Hence, population after nth decade is

Pn = P + n. X + {n (n + 1) / 2}.Y
GRAPHICAL METHOD

• In this method, the populations of last few decades are

correctly plotted to a suitable scale on graph.

• The population curve is smoothly extended for getting future

population.

• This extension should be done carefully and it requires

proper experience and judgment.

• The best way of applying this method is to extend the curve

by comparing with population curve of some other similar
cities having the similar growth condition.
Graphical method of population forecasting
COMPARATIVE GRAPHICAL METHOD

• In this method the census populations of cities already

developed under similar conditions are plotted.
• The curve of past population of the city under consideration
is plotted on the same graph.
• The curve is extended carefully by comparing with the
population curve of some similar cities having the similar
condition of growth.
• The advantage of this method is that the future population
can be predicted from the present population even in the
absence of some of the past census report.
• Example:
The populations of a new city X given for decades 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 were 32,000;
38,000; 43,000 and 50,000, respectively. The cities A, B, C and D were developed in similar
conditions as that of city X. It is required to estimate the population of the city X in the years
2010 and 2020. The population of cities A, B, C and D of different decades were given
below:
(i) City A: 50,000; 62,000; 72,000 and 87,000 in 1960, 1972, 1980 and 1990, respectively.
(ii) City B: 50,000; 58,000; 69,000 and 76,000 in 1962, 1970, 1981 and 1988, respectively.
(iii) City C: 50,000; 56,500; 64,000 and 70,000 in 1964, 1970, 1980 and 1988, respectively.
(iv) City D: 50,000; 54,000; 58,000 and 62,000 in 1961, 1973, 1982 and 1989, respectively.

Population curves for the cities A, B, C, D and X are plotted. Then an average mean curve is also plotted
by dotted line as shown in the figure. The population curve X is extended beyond 50,000 matching with
the dotted mean curve. From the curve, the populations obtained for city X are 58,000 and 68,000 in
year 2010 and 2020
Comparative graph method
MASTER PLAN METHOD or ZONING METHOD
• The big and metropolitan cities are generally not
developed in haphazard manner, but are planned and
regulated by local bodies according to master plan.
• The master plan is prepared for next 25 to 30 years for
the city.
• According to the master plan the city is divided into
various zones such as residence, commerce and industry.
• The population densities are fixed for various zones in
the master plan. From this population density total water
demand and wastewater generation for that zone can be
worked out.
• By this method it is very easy to access precisely the
design population.
 LOGISTIC CURVE METHOD

• This method is used when the growth rate of population due to

births, deaths and migrations takes place under normal situation
and

• It is not subjected to any extraordinary changes like epidemic, war,

earth quake or any natural disaster, etc., and the population follows
the growth curve characteristics of living things within limited space
and economic opportunity.

• If the population of a city is plotted with respect to time, the curve

so obtained under normal condition looks like S-shaped curve and is
known as logistic curve .
Logistic curve for population growth
• This is the required equation of the logistic curve,
which will be used for predicting population. If only
three pairs of characteristic values P0, P1, P2 at times
t = t0 = 0, t1 and t2 = 2t1 extending over the past
record are chosen, the saturation population Ps and
constant m and n can be estimated by the following
equation, as follows
DECREASING GROWTH RATE METHOD
• Usually applied to those communities that reach saturation
• This method is not useful to find out intermediate period

Pn = P {1 + (ro − D / 100)}{1 + (ro − 2 D / 100)}..........

Where
ro = Present % increase in population

D = Average of decrease in % increase in population