PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS

Probability distribution functions consist of independent variables and dependent variables.

Independent Variable
Here is referred to as a random variable and is usually denoted with a capital letter X, Y, Z etc.
Written as r.v.X
A random variable is a variable that contains the outcomes of a chance experiment. It is a rule
that assigns numerical values to outcomes in a sample space. This assignment allows
mathematical manipulations to the outcome of a random experiment.
*For example, tossing a fair coin three times. We assign a r.v.X as equal to the number of
times we obtain a head i.e. r.v.X= n(H)

Outcome r.v.X= n(H)

s
HHH 3
HHT 2
HTH 2
HTT 1
THH 2
THT 1
TTH 1
TTT 0
The values taken by random variables are denoted by small letters; In this case x. The
numbers 0, 1, 2, 3 are the values that the random variable takes in this experiment.

 The two categories of random variables are: (1) discrete random variables and (2) continuous
random variables.

*A random variable is a discrete random variable if the set of all possible values is at most a
finite number or a countably infinite number of possible values. In most statistical situations,
discrete random variables produce values that are nonnegative whole numbers e.g. if six people
are randomly selected from a population and how many of the six are left-handed is to be
determined, the random variable produced is discrete. The only possible numbers of left-handed
people in the sample of six are 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. There cannot be 2.75 left-handed people in
a group of six people; obtaining non-whole number values is impossible.
**Continuous random variables take on values at every point over a given interval. Thus
continuous random variables have no gaps or unassumed values. It could be said that
continuous random variables are generated from experiments in which things are “measured”
not “counted.” e.g. if a person is assembling a product component, the time it takes
to accomplish that feat could be any value within a reasonable range such as 3 minutes
36.4218 seconds or 5 minutes 17.5169 seconds. A list of measures for which continuous
random variables might be generated would include time, height, weight, and volume.

Dependent Variable
This is a probability value that is determined for each value of the random variable X.
In our last experiment:
p (no head) = 1/8 written p (X= 0) =1/8
p (one head) = 3/8 written p (X= 1) =3/8

p (two heads) =3/8 written p (X= 2) =3/8

p (three heads) = 1/8 written p (X= 3) =1/8

p(X=x)- a probability distribution function

A graph in the form of a histogram may be constructed to depict a distribution function.

The results of the experiment above may be presented in table form as:

x 0 1 2 3
p (X=x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8

The table depicts a probability distribution that contains the number of heads that could occur
when a fair coin is tossed three times and the probability that each number will occur.

A histogram may be constructed with the possible outcomes i.e. number of heads that will occur
i.e. 0, 1, 2 and 3 on the x-axis (independent variable) of the histogram and on the y-axis contains
the probabilities of these occurring (the dependent variable).

A probability distribution is therefore a listing of all the outcomes of an experiment and their
corresponding probabilities.

Characteristics of a probability distribution

 The probability of a particular outcome is between 0 and 1 inclusive i.e. 0 ≤ p(X = x) ≤ 1
 The sum of the probabilities of all mutually exclusive outcomes is 1 i.e.  P( X
all x
 x)  1 .

The function that is responsible for allocating probabilities p(X=x) is known as the probability
density function of X, sometimes abbreviated to p(x).

STATISTICAL MEASURES OF A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

 The mean also known as the expected value of a distribution is the long-run average of
occurrences and is denoted by E(X) or µx or simply µ.

It is computed as follows:
 = E (x ) =   x.P ( x )
where E(X)- is the long-run average
x the outcome
p(x) the probability of that outcome

Example 1
Compute the mean or expected value of the distribution obtained by tossing a fair coin three
times.
Solution

X 0 1 2 3
p (X=x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
x.p(x) 0 3/8 6/8 3/8

  x.P ( x) = 0 + 3/8 + 6/8 + 3/8 = 12/8 = 1.5 heads

This means in the long run, the mean or expected number of heads when a fair coin is tossed
three times is 1.5 heads. Of course, we can never have 1.5 heads.

 The variance and standard deviation of a discrete distribution are solved for by using
the outcomes x and probabilities of outcomes p(x) in a manner similar to that of
computing mean. In addition, the computations for variance and standard deviations use
the mean of the discrete distribution. The formula for computing the variance follows.

σ2 = ∑ x2 p(x) - µ2 or 
 2    x    P( x)
2


where σ2 - is the variance

x an outcome
p(x) the probability of that outcome
µ the mean

The standard deviation is then computed by taking the square root of the variance.

Example 2
Compute the variance and standard deviation of the distribution obtained by tossing a fair coin
three times.

Solution

X 0 1 2 3
p (X=x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
x2.p(x) 0 3/8 12/8 9/8

σ2 = ∑ x2 p(x) - µ2 = (0 + 3/8 + 12/8 + 9/8) – 1.52

= 3-1.52
= 0.75
 standard deviation σ = √(0.75) = 0.87 heads
Probability distributions functions which are categorized as :
 Discrete Probability Distributions functions e.g. Binomial distribution, Poisson
distribution and Hyper-geometric distribution
 Continuous Probability distributions functions e.g. the Normal (Gaussian) distribution,
the Normal distribution as an approximation for the Binomial distribution and the Normal
distribution as an approximation for the Poisson distribution.

Practice Questions
1. John sells cars for General Motors. He usually sells the largest number of cars on
Saturday. He has the following probability distribution for the number of cars he expects
to sell on a particular Saturday.
No. of cars (x) Probability P(x)
0 .1
1 .2
2 .3
3 .3
4 .1
Total 1.0
a) On a typical Saturday, how many cars does John expect to sell?
b) What is the variance and standard deviation of the distribution?

2. Determine the mean, the variance, and the standard deviation of the following discrete
distribution.

X p(x)
1 0.238
2 0.290
3 0.177
4 0.158
5 0.137

3. Determine the mean, the variance, and the standard deviation of the following discrete
distribution.

X p(x)
0 0.103
1 0.118
2 0.246
3 0.229
4 0.138
5 0.094
6 0.071
7 0.001