BKTF - PII

Prediksi Energi Listrik Pada Bangunan Dengan

Menggunakan Machine Learning

Rachmadi Indrapraja

1
 Building Energy
Consumption
International Energy Agency Statistics, konsumsi
energi suatu gedung dan konstruksi gedung
menyumbang sekitar 36% dari total konsumsi energi
dunia. Manajemen energi dalam suatu gedung menjadi
peran kunci untuk meningkatkan efisiensi energi,
kenyamanan dan umur peralatan, serta mengurangi
konsumsi energi dan biaya operasional

H. Lu, F. Cheng, X. Ma, and G. Hu, “Short-term prediction of building energy consumption employing an improved
extreme gradient boosting model: A case study of an intake tower,” Energy, vol. 203, p. 117756, Jul. 2020, doi:
10.1016/j.energy.2020.117756
2
Rachmadi Indrapraja|Kariana K. Dewi
 Technological Innovations
Technologies such as embedded sensors and automated controls help utilities better
anticipate, detect, and respond to system problems. Thus, these technologies are self-
healing and can automatically avoid or at least mitigate power outages, power quality
problems, and service disruptions, thereby providing ratepayers with a more reliable energy
system.

As an example, automatic meter reading was used for monitoring loads and evolved into the
advanced metering infrastructure, whose meters could store how electricity was used at
different times of the day. Smart meters add continuous communications to facilitate
monitoring in real time

H.A. Gabbar. Smart energy grid infrastructures and interconnected micro energy grids (Chapter 2). Elsevier Inc. 2016
3
 Building Energy Management
Many studies have shown that user energy saving ranges between 5 and 15% if the users
were given the appropriate tools to accurately monitor their energy consumption at home.
There is very limited data provided to the user who does not have access to accurate billing
and does not know which devices in the home are the main sources of energy consumption.
Thus it is imperative to provide user-friendly tools that allow access to the power usage in the
home via a simple display as well as other forms of data access (PDA, Web Interface).

Monitor → Predict → Efficient & Effective

Jean-Philippe Vasseur, Adam Dunkels. Interconnecting Smart Object with IP, Chapter 20 Smart Grid. Elsevier Inc.. 2010

4
 SPEAK BY DATA
ACT BY DATA
Most Professionals hold this principles

5
 Experience is the best Teacher

■ Data is our experience

■ Data means successes and failures

6
 Most Failures

■ Before FAT, Commissioning, Hand Over, etc

■ Before LAN is installed
■ Before Historians and Servers in the pictures

7
 MOST FAILURES OCCUR WHEN
THERE IS NO STORAGE INFRAS

8
 ■ Before FAT, Commissioning, Hand Over, etc
■ Before LAN is installed
■ Before Historians and Servers in the pictures

Cloud Platform is the answer

9
 Cloud Platform is Server-less
https://www.xenonstack.com/

10
 Implementation Tool : Google Cloud
Platform

11 GCP Dashboard Rachmadi Indrapraja|Kariana K. Dewi

 GCP Artificial Intelligence

12
Rachmadi Indrapraja|Kariana K. Dewi
 GCP Notebook

13
Rachmadi Indrapraja|Kariana K. Dewi
 CRISP-DM
Phase 1: Business understanding: The focus of the first step is to gain
an understanding of the project objectives and requirements from a
business perspective followed by converting these into data mining
problem definitions. Presentation of a preliminary plan to achieve the
objectives are also included in this first step.

Phase 2: Data understanding: This step begins with an initial data

collection and proceeds with activities in order to get familiar with the
data, identify data quality issues, discover first insights into the data,
and potentially detect and form hypotheses.

Phase 3: Data preparation: The third step covers activities required to

construct the final dataset from the initial raw data. Data preparation
tasks are performed repeatedly.

https://peerj.com/articles/cs-267/#fig-1

14
Rachmadi Indrapraja|Kariana K. Dewi
 CRISP-DM
Phase 4: Modeling phase: In this step, various modeling techniques are selected and
applied followed by calibrating their parameters. Typically, several techniques are used
for the same data mining problem.

Phase 5: Evaluation of the model(s): The fifth step begins with the quality perspective
and then, before proceeding to final model deployment, ascertains that the model(s)
achieves the business objectives. At the end of this phase, a decision should be
reached on how to use data mining results.

Phase 6: Deployment phase: In the final step, the models are deployed to enable
endcustomers to use the data as basis for decisions, or support in the business
process. Even if the purpose of the model is to increase knowledge of the data, the
knowledge gained will need to be organized, presented, distributed in a way that the
end-user can use it. Depending on the requirements, the deployment phase can be as
simple as generating a report or as complex as implementing a repeatable data mining
process.

https://peerj.com/articles/cs-267/#fig-1

15
Rachmadi Indrapraja|Kariana K. Dewi
 Business & Data Understanding

Tanggal Tavg RH_avg

01-06-2013 23.9 80
02-06-2013 24 74
03-06-2013 23.4 76
04-06-2013 24.7 74
05-06-2013 24.4 77
06-06-2013 23.1 79
07-06-2013 22.5 80
08-06-2013 22.7 88
09-06-2013 24 78
10-06-2013 23.3 81
11-06-2013 23.4 84
12-06-2013 22.2 90
13-06-2013 21.6 90

16
 Data Preparation
❏ Normalization

❏ Negative Cleansing

❏ Contextual Features

→ Day of years, Month, Day of week,

→ Sliding windows

17
 Sliding windows The sliding window method is introduced to deep belief network,
which combines the previous and current variable data into time series
data

As a result, all temporal information related to the energy consumption

data is fed to the input layer of deep belief network. Then deep belief
network is utilized to establish the multiple-index energy consumption
prediction model on the temporal information

→ Basis for Collective Contextual Anomaly

Detection - Sliding Windows (CCAD-SW)

X. Hao, T. Guo, G. Huang, X. Shi, Y. Zhao, and Y. Yang, “Energy consumption prediction in cement calcination process: A method of deep
18 belief network with sliding window,” Energy, vol. 207, p. 118256, Sep. 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.118256
 Sliding windows

❏ Range after 5 days

❏ Use average values
❏ Normalization

X. Hao, T. Guo, G. Huang, X. Shi, Y. Zhao, and Y. Yang, “Energy consumption prediction in cement calcination
19 process: A method of deep belief network with sliding window,” Energy, vol. 207, p. 118256, Sep. 2020, doi:
10.1016/j.energy.2020.118256
 Datasets

Kelompok I : Day of year, day of week, Energy Day 1, Energy Day 2, Energy Day 3,
Energy Day 4, Energy Day 5

Kelompok II : Day of year, day of week, Energy Day 1, Energy Day 2, Energy Day 3,
Energy Day 4, Energy Day 5, Temperature

Kelompok III : Day of year, day of week, Energy Day 1, Energy Day 2, Energy Day 3,
Energy Day 4, Energy Day 5, RH_avg

Kelompok IV : Day of year, day of week, Energy Day 1, Energy Day 2, Energy Day 3,
Energy Day 4, Energy Day 5, Temperature, RH_avg

20
 Modelling : Machine Learning

Sayedzadah, Farzad, dkk., Machine learning for estimation of building energy consumption and performance: a
21 review, Jurnal of Vizualization Engineering, 2018.
 RVP (Regresi Vektor Pendukung) /
SVR (Support Vector Regression)
Analisis regresi berguna untuk menganalisis
hubungan antara satu dependent variable dan satu atau
lebih predictor variables. SVR mengoptimalkan fungsi
regresi yang memetakan nilai respon yang diamati,
menyeimbangkan model yang kompleks, dan kesalahan
prediksi. SVR memiliki kemampuan yang baik dalam
mengolah data berdimensi tinggi
Fungsi yang digunakan untuk analisis SVR harus
cukup dekat dengan data pelatihan dan secara akurat
dapat memprediksi nilai keluaran untuk data masukan
berikutnya

F. C. İskenderoğlu, M. K. Baltacioğlu, M. H. Demir, A. Baldinelli, L. Barelli, and G. Bidini, “Comparison of support vector regression and random forest
algorithms for estimating the SOFC output voltage by considering hydrogen flow rates,” Int. J. Hydrog. Energy, p. S0360319920329402, Aug.
2020, doi: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2020.07.265
22 Fan. Zhang. Support Vector Regression. Machine Learning. 2020
 RF (Random Forest)

RF menyediakan model prediktif dan estimasi variable.

RF ini didasarkan pada agregasi sejumlah besar pohon
keputusan yang tidak saling berkolerasi satu sama lain.
Tujuan dari RF ini adalah untuk mengurangi jumlah variable
yang diperlukan untuk mendapatkan prediksi yang tepat dan
mengurangi beban pengumpulan data sehingga dapat
meningkatkan efisiensi.

RF merupakan model sederhana yang menggunakan

pemisahan biner pada variable predictor untuk menentukan
hasil prediksi. Dalam penggunaannya, prinsip kerja
didasarkan pada klasifikasi dan regresi yang dibangun
menggunakan kumpulan data pelatihan yang dipilih secara
acak, kemudian hasil dari setiap pohon dikumpulkan dan
diprediksi sehingga metode ini memiliki akurasi yang lebih
tinggi dibandingkan dengan model decision tree tunggal

L. Blanchet et al., “Constructing bi-plots for random forest: Tutorial,” Anal. Chim. Acta, vol. 1131, pp. 146–155, Sep. 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.aca.2020.06.043.
J. L. Speiser, M. E. Miller, J. Tooze, and E. Ip, “A comparison of random forest variable selection methods for classification prediction modeling,” Expert Syst.
Appl., vol. 134, pp. 93–101, Nov. 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2019.05.028

23
 MBT (Metode Belajar Terkoordinasi) / Ensemble Learning

Ensemble learning adalah pendekatan pembelajaran mesin

yang memecahkan masalah dengan menggunakan banyak
algoritma. Pendekatan ensemble berupaya membangun
serangkaian hipotesis dan menggabungkannya untuk
membangun hipotesis baru.
SVR RF
Tujuan utama dari pembelajaran ensemble adalah untuk (Support Vector (Random
meningkatkan kinerja model dengan menggabungkan Regression) Forest)
beberapa algoritma. Ensemble dibangun berdasarkan dua
tahapan, pertama, beberapa algoritma dasar dibangun, dan
kemudian digabungkan menggunakan beberapa teknik
kombinasi.

D. B. Araya, K. Grolinger, H. F. ElYamany, M. A. M. Capretz, and G. Bitsuamlak, “An ensemble learning framework for anomaly
detection in building energy consumption,” Energy Build., vol. 144, pp. 191–206, Jun. 2017, doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2017.02.058

24
 Modelling (Kelompok I) : Results

25
 Modelling (Kelompok II) : Results

RVP RF

26
MBT
 Modelling (Kelompok III) : Results

RVP RF

27
MBT
 Modelling (Kelompok IV) : Results

RVP RF

28
MBT
 Evaluation & Deployment
Kel. Fitur RVP RF MBT
MSE MAE MSE MAE MSE MAE
I 0.021617 0.082066 0.018272 0.097623 0.018922 0.091095

II 0.021283 0.081313 0.018000 0.096256 0.018375 0.089504

III 0.021405 0.081261 0.017980 0.096561 0.018759 0.089973

IV 0.021270 0.081330 0.018046 0.095878 0.018252 0.090804

Kel. Fitur RVP RF MBT

I 156,729 177,0128 126,001

II 138,702 161,691 145,004

III 156,262 171,767 131,967

IV 138,687 182,588 128,383

Hasil Pengukuran Energi : 147,587 kW

29
 Conclusions

■ All algorithms are applicable for modelling and prediction

■ All models show errors > 0.1, acceptable for prediction
■ RH_Avg is more dominant than Temperature for modelling, Kelompok III shows
smallest error

30
31