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Risk Free: Special Dividend Effect On Beta: Chrysler, The Automotive Manufacturer, Had A
Risk Free: Special Dividend Effect On Beta: Chrysler, The Automotive Manufacturer, Had A
Risk free
i. rf = YTM – default spread
ii. rf = YTM safest corporate bond – default spread
iii. Forward rate Foreign currency, $ = Spot Rate Foreign currency [(1 + rf ) / (1+
FC
rf $)]n
rf FC = …..
Use i. or iv.
DS = YTM risky bond – YTM rf bond (in the same currency with the
same maturity)
Beta
βL = βU [1 + (1 – Tax rate) (MV Debt / MV Equity)]
1. Unlever sectors
a. In Firm Value/Sales case:
Sales = Revenue * Firm Value then we can get the weights
and βU
2. βUcompany=weighted average
3. Lever the Beta
Business risk = βU / βL
The stock is currently trading at $ 40 per share, and there are 250 million
shares outstanding; the firm has no debt outstanding. InfoSoft also has $ 2
billion in cash that it has accumulated over time. The average beta for
entertainment software firms is 1.50, and that the average debt/equity ratio of
these firms is 10%. (You can assume that the cash balances at these firms are
negligible and that the marginal tax rate is 40% for all firms) Estimate InfoSoft's
current beta.
βU sector = 1.42
βCompany = wEq * βU sector + wCash * 0 = 1.13
CoE:
Approach 1: Constant exposure to CRP, Location CRP
o COE = rf + β * ERPUS + RPcountry
Approach 2: Constant exposure to CRP, Operation CRP
o COE = rf + β * ERPUS +(% of rev * RPCountry + % of rev *
RPUS/0)
Approach 3: Beta exposure to CRP, Location CRP
o COE = rf + β * (ERPUS + RPcountry)
Approach 4: Beta exposure to CRP, Operation CRP
o COE = rf + β * (ERPUS + (% of rev * RPCountry + % of rev *
RPUS/0)
Approach 5: Lambda exposure to CRP
o COE = rf + β * ERPUS + λ * RPCountry
λ = % of revenue of firm / % of revenue for an average firm
COECountry = (1+ COEMature) * [(1+ infCountry)/(1+ infMature)] - 1 (CAN
ALSO BE USED FOR CC)
Problems:
1. Savoy Inc. is a company based in Indonesia, with substantial interests in the
hotel/tourism business and in forest products.
Business Operating Income Unlevered Beta of
comparables
Hotel/Tourism 60% 1.25
Forest Products 25% 0.80
Cash 15%
Debt to equity ratio of 150%. default spread for B- rated bonds is 3%, and the
Indonesian equity index is three times more volatile than the Indonesian long
term bond.
Estimate the cost of equity for this firm in U.S. dollar terms, if the treasury bond
rate is 5%. (The tax rate for the firm is 30%, and the historical risk premium in
the US is 6%)
CoD
i. Pre-tax cost of debt: = T-Bond rate or risk free + default
spread
a. If company exposed to risk of two countries or more: rfeuros
+ default spread company + λ default spread Poland + λ
default spread hungary. (weighted average can be done)
b. use interest coverage ratio to get synthetic rating = (EBIT +
Op lease expense) / (Interest expense + Op lease expense)
ii. After tax cost of debt = pre-tax * (1-marginal tax rate) [NOT
effective tax rate]
MV Debt:
Market value of interest bearing debt = PV of Interest payments + PV of
FV or BVDebt + PV of lease commitments
PV of Interest Payments = (face value * IR of loan) discounted Pre-
tax CoD or IR of rated bond not the IR of loan. N=5 PMT=
Interest payments IR=.. compute PV
PV of face value or BV of debt N=5 PMT= 0 IR=.. compute PV
PV of lease commitments
N can be equal to weighted average of maturity
MV Equity:
If there is a convertible bond:
MV Equity = 100
The company has one convertible bond, with a face value of $ 100
million, a ten-year maturity and a coupon rate of 2%; the bond has a
market value of $120 million.
I pre-tax cost of debt is 5%,
Answer:
Straight bond (debt) = $2 million (PV of annuity for 10 years @5%) +
$100 million/1.0510 = $76.83
Conversion option (equity) = MV Convertible – Straight bond = $120 -
$76.83 = $43.17
Overall value of equity = $143.17 million
Cost of capital:
CC = Weight of MV Equity * CoE + Weight of MV Debt * Pre-tax CoD *
(1-Marginal tax)
Chapter 9
Converting R&D to equity:
Adjusted BV Equity = BV Equity + Value of research asset
Adjusted operating income = Operating income + R&D expenses – amort
of research asset
Adjusted Net income = NI + R&D exp - amort
Chapter 10:
FCFF:
FCFF = Adjusted EBIT *(1- tax rate)– Reinvestment – Adjusted Net
CAPEX - ∆NWC
Adjusted EBIT:
i. Adjusted EBIT for R&D = After-tax operating earnings +
Current R&D expense – Amortization R&D asset
a. Amortization: (take the sum of the amortized amount of each
year’s expense. If three years prior then use 1/3 as a rate of
each year’s expense.)
i. Add tax benefit to FCFF = (Current R&D expense –
Amortization) * tax rate
ii. Adjusted EBIT for lease commitments =
old EBIT + current lease expense – Depreciation of lease commit
a. Depreciation = PV of Leases / number of years
iii. Adjusted EBIT for lease commitments = old EBIT + pre-tax CoD
x PV of lease comm (at pre-tax CoD)
Tax rate:
Reinvestment:
Problem 3:
earnings before interest and taxes of $60 million last year,
operating lease expenses of $50 million last year and has a commitment to
make equivalent payments for the next eight years.
capital expenditures of $30 million and depreciation of $50 million last year.
two acquisitions, one funded with cash for $50 million and another funded with
a stock swap for $30 million. The amortization of these acquisitions is already
included in the current year's depreciation.
The total working capital increased from $180 million at the start of the year to
$200 million at the end of the year. However, the firm's cash balance was a
significant portion of this working capital and increased from $80 million at the
start of the year to $120 million at the end. (The cash is invested in T-bills.)
The tax rate is 40%, and the firm's pretax cost of debt is 6%.
Estimate the free cash flows to the firm last year.
Answer:
After-tax adjusted EBIT = Adjusted EBIT lease commit * (1-Tax) =(old EBIT +
CoD * PV lease commit) * (1-T) = (60 + 6%*310.49) * 0.6 = 47.18
+ Depreciation 50
FCFF = 7.18
Problem 2:
The firm reported $80 million in earnings before interest and taxes, capital
expenditures of $30 million, and depreciation of $20 million in the most recent
year.
The firm had R&D expenses of $50 million in the most recent year. You believe
that a threeyear amortizable life is appropriate for this firm and the R&D
expenses for the past three years have amounted to $20 million, $30 million,
and $40 million respectively.
The firm also made two acquisitions during the year—a cash-based acquisition
for $45 million and a stock-based acquisition for $35 million. If the firm has no
working capital requirements and a tax rate of 40%,
estimate FCFF of most recent year
Answer:
Adjusted EBIT for R&D = After-tax operating earnings + Current R&D expense
– Amort R&D asset = 80 * 60% + 50 – 30 = 68
+ Depreciation = 20
+ Amortization = 30
∆NCWC:
total working capital increased from $100 million last year to $120
million this year.
last year’s cash balance had $ 30 million in cash and $15 million in short
term debt
this year’s cash balance has $20 million in cash and $25 million in short
term debt.
What effect did working capital have on your cash flow this year?
Answer:
Non-cash WC last year = 100 – 30 +15 = 85
Non-cash WC this year = 120 -20 + 25 = 125
Change in non-cash WC = 125 – 85 = +40 (Decreases CF)
The firm’s non-cash current assets are $40 million and its non-debt
current liabilities are $50 million, and non-cash working capital as a
percent of revenues is expected to remain unchanged next year.
If the net cap ex is expected to be $10 million next year, what is your
estimate of the FCFF for the next year?
Answer:
Non-cash WC = 40 -50 = -10
Non-cash WC as percent of revenues = -10/100 = -10%
Expected revenues next year = $110 million
Expected non-cash WC = -$11 million
Change in WC = -10-(-11) = 1
FCFF = 20 (1.10) - $10 +1 = $13 million
FCFE:
FCFE = NI + Depreciation - CAPEX - ∆NCWC + New Debt – Debt
Repayment
Answer:
FCFE = 73.75
From FCFF to FCFE:
FCFF of $50 million for firm for the most recent year.
Total debt decreased from $100 to $85 million during the course of the
year and it reported interest expense of $10 million for the year.
tax rate is 30%
FCFE?
Answer:
To get from FCFF to FCFE, you subtract out the after-tax interest
expense and the net debt change (if debt increases, it is a cash inflow
whereas a debt decrease is cash outflow).
FCFF – Interest expense (1-t) + Change in Debt = FCFE • 50 – 10 (1-.30)
-15 = $28 million
II. Fundamentals:
1) Earnings per Share
Stable ROE:
Changing ROE:
2) Net income
Stable ROE:
Changing ROE:
3) EBIT
Stable ROC:
Changing ROC:
Negative Earnings:
grevenues:
Determine the total market (given your business model) and
estimate the market share that you think your company will earn.
Decrease the growth rate as the firm becomes larger
Keep track of absolute revenues to make sure that the growth is
feasible
Operating margins:
Set a target margin that the firm will move towards
Adjust the current margin towards the target margin
MCQ:
You are trying to estimate the free cash flow to the firm for FormaWare, a
young, money losing company with significant growth potential. The
company generated a loss of $10 million on revenues of $100 million in
the most recent year but is expected to double revenues next year, while
halving its operating losses. If the company has a sales/capital ratio of
4.0, what is the FCFF next year?
Answer: Expected Operating income next year = -$5 million (no taxes)
Change in revenue next year = $200 m - $100 m = $100 m Reinvestment
next year = $100 m/4 = $25 million FCFF next year =- $5 m - $25 m = -
$30 million
ROE = NI / BV (E)
ROE = [NI + Current R&D expense – Dep R&D asset] / [BV(E) + Value of
R&D asset]
FCFF Model
FCFF year 1 = After-tax EBIT * (1-Reinvesment Rate)
o Reinvestment rate = g / RoC
RoC = After-tax EBIT / Capital
FCFF year 2 = [FCFF year 1 * (1+g)] * (1-Reinvestment Rate)
COMMENTS:
g terminal = rf long-term
ROC terminal = WACC terminal
Use the Marginal Tax Rate
PROBLEMS:
a. Value the equity in the company today, with its operating mix
intact, assuming that both divisions will grow 3% a year forever,
while maintaining their current returns on invested capital.
FCFF = 90 * [ 1 - (3%/(90/900)) ] = 63
CoE Cosmetics:
BU = 1.92/ (1+ 0.6???? * 1200/1315.57) = 1.24
CoE = 3% + 1.24 * 6% = 10.44%
a. Assume that you want to be oil price neutral, i.e., value the
company given the oil price today. If you expect the oil-price
neutral earning to grow 6% a year for the next three years, while
maintaining this normalized return on capital, estimate the free
cash flows to the firm for the next three years.
YEAR 1:
After-tax EBIT = (100 + 50*70 ) * (-0.25 + 0.005 * 70) = 360
Reinvensmnt rate = g / (after-tax EBIT / Capital )
= 6% / (360/(1800+100+800)) = 33.33%
c. Estimate the value per share today, if there are 100 million
shares outstanding.
First 3 years:
Terminal year:
Marginal tax rate = 35%
After-tax EBIT = 50*(1-0.35) = 32.5