• Military conflict looms large over West Asia

• The Tribune
• By MK Bhadrakumar,Former Ambassador

o January 3 killing of Qassem Soleimani was a watershed event.

o The politics of West Asia changing course with long lasting consequences
o A new phase of tensions and proxy wars is erupting in India’s ‘extended
neighbourhood’, which will inevitably impact our vital interests and core
concerns.
o On January 3 is that the US unilaterally changed the rules of the game in its
standoff with Iran.
o Clearly, the US-Iran hostilities are entering uncharted waters.
o Tehran understands that the agenda of the Trump administration is nothing
less than ‘regime change’.
o Iraq was Tehran’s Maginot Line, a Mesopotamian labyrinth of fortifications
and obstacles and weapon installations that would deter the US and compel
it into a long battle of attrition.

o The US-Iran crisis is about the future of West Asia.

o The way out of this logjam lies in offering to Tehran a full integration with
the world economy and a ‘grand bargain’ to make it a stakeholder in
regional security, which it has been keenly seeking. But then, Iran is a rich
country and robustly independent, and its surge would render archaic the
US hegemony in Muslim West Asia.
o The US has sought permission from Baghdad for deployment of Patriot
missiles in Iraq. The intention is to deny Iran any strategic depth and defang
it from retaliating against any US attack.

o Indian's concern - around 9 million strong diaspora in the regiona and

energy security
o Question is not whether but when a conflict can be expected — that is,
assuming Trump gets re-elected in November.
o Meanwhile, a flashpoint can arise over Iran’s nuclear activities in the coming
months.
o In short, the Trump administration is in a position to manufacture a crisis
and to seize the moment to hit the previously announced 52 targets in Iran.
o Trump may even consider it politically expedient to do so as a display of
‘decisive leadership’ in the middle of his re-election bid.
• For whom the bell tolls
• The Hindu
• by HGS Dhaliwal,1997 batch IPS officer, is currently IGP, Arunachal Prades

o Theme - Infirmities and delays in criminal justice system strengthen the case
for jury trials

o It is every man’s business to see that justice is done

o The long delay in December 16 rape case stands in stark contrast to the
encounter killing of rapists in Telangana.
o Long-drawn trials are the biggest causative factors for the lynch-mob and
justice-at-hand mentality.
o The delayed trials and the insensitivity of the criminal justice system become
a bigger trauma for the victim than the actual crime.

o Jury trials

• Jury trials have been quite popular and widely accepted in many other
common law countries like the US, despite its criticism in well-known
cases such as Scottsboro Boys, Emmett Till and Rodney King.
• The original provisions of the IPC, 1861 and Code of Criminal Procedure,
1882 had a provision for jury trial. It was given a burial with the new
Code of Criminal Procedure that came into force in 1974.
• The famous Nanavati case of 1959 hastened the demise of the jury trial
system in India.
• However, the acute shortcomings of the conventional criminal justice
system, evident in cases such as the December 16 rape and murder, call
for revisiting the merits of the jury trial system.
• In a multicultural and a multiracial country like India, with its motley of
castes, ethnicities and interest groups, jury trials can have their own
challenges, especially relating to composition of jury members.
• The jury trials can also have the added benefit of sharing the workload
of an already overburdened judicial system.
o This is the moment when the country wants to be judge, jury and
executioner. A democracy based on the rule of law cannot allow the public
to be the judge or executioner.
 o However, people drawn from a diverse pool , can be members of the jury in
“public interest” cases like the December 16 rape and murder and Telangana
rape and murder.

• EU has no moral ground to speak on CAA

• The Tribune
• By Tara Kartha, Former Director, National Security Council Secretariat

o Theme - EU resolutions come at a time when EU countries are themselves

limiting citizenship even on the basis of birth or ‘jus soli’.

o There was much in the EU’s five draft resolutions to annoy Delhi.

o For instance,
• Demanding to know why India cannot offer citizenship to the Hazaras,
Ahmadis, Rohingyas, Biharis Muslims, and the Sri Lankan Tamil
community, among others.
• Warning of the CAA being "dangerously divisive and … potentially create
the largest statelessness crisis in the world and cause widespread
human suffering."
• Charges of religious discrimination
• Some are threatening by emphasising that EU trade agreement “include a
strong human rights clause .”

o The Pakistan angle -

• The opinion mobiliser is a Pakistan-origin Parliamentarian Shaffaq
Mohammad
• But a Pakistani hand doesn’t entirely explain why sponsors span political
groupings from all sides
o Why EU should not patronise India on refugee issue?
• They are themselves limiting citizenship even on the basis of birth or ‘jus
soli’
• The UK does not grant citizenship to foreigners on that basis and France
retracted it in 2003.
• Moral angle -
▪ These refugees have come from wars in Syria, Iraq and Yemen,

where Europe has been involved in directly or indirectly.

 ▪ For instance, arms exports from Finland, Sweden, the UK and
Germany assisted the Saudis in their war in Yemen.

• Numbers -
▪ Europe’s ‘refugee crisis’ was engendered by the arrival of one

million in 2015. While in 1971, India took in eight million refugees.

o Conclusion
• Delhi should certainly tell off the EU for its unwarranted interference.
• But it would also be advised to do the sums to see whether this
controversial legislation is really worth the internal and external
headache.
• This math should also conclude whether a reputation as a vibrant and
multi-religious country has a monetary value.

• Indo-US trade deal likely during Trump’s forthcoming India visit

o Stats:
• 2018-19
▪ India’s exports to the US stood at USD 52.4 billion
▪ While imports were USD 35.5 billion
▪ Trade deficit dipped from USD 21.3 billion in 2017-18 to USD 16.9

billion in 2018-19.
▪ India received FDI worth USD 3.13 billion from the US increasing

from USD 2 billion in 2017-18.

o India is seeking

• Exemption from high duties imposed by the US on certain steel and

aluminium products
• Resumption of benefits on tariff on certain products under their
Generalised System of Preferences (GSP).
• Greater market access for its products in the US in sectors such as
agriculture, automobile, auto components and engineering.

o US wants:
• Greater market access for its farm and manufacturing products, dairy
items and medical devices in India.
• The surge of the virus
• The Tribune
• By Shyam Saran

o Theme - Economic cost of coronavirus outbreak in China & elsewhere will be

huge
o WHO has declared it a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in
the same category as earlier SARS and Ebola crises.

o How is this pandemic different ?

• It has erupted in a country which is now the second largest economy in
the world
• One of the most globalised of economies
• A critical node in the dense network of trade and travel

o So there will be adverse economic impact not only for China, but also for the
world
o Is similar to the SARS epidemic of 2003 which also originated in China.the
economic loss was at $25 billion out of GDP of $1.4 trillion. China’s current
GDP is $14 trillion, so the scale of loss may be much larger.
o While the immediate impact will be felt on tourism , there will be disruptions
in the supply chains of global multinationals of which China is a critical
component.
o Will have a negative economic impact on India, even though its linkages with
China are not as dense. But a time when the Indian economy is locked into a
prolonged slowdown, the inevitable shrinking of global GDP and trade in the
wake of the crisis will only compound the problem.

o China has sustained accelerated growth but also built up serious imbalances
and vulnerabilities
• Has a huge debt overhang of nearly 300% of its GDP
• Several key sectors of the economy have large surplus capacity.Like real
estate and construction sector, steel and cement.
o Thus a faltering China may be as big a challenge as an ascendant one.
o The coronavirus outbreak has been traced to the wholesale meat and
seafood market in Wuhan.
 o Conclusion
• In charting out its own future, India must learn from China’s experience.
The search for food security should not spawn a health emergency.

• Pompeo message in Europe, Central Asia trip: beware of China

• The Hindu
o Background - Corona Virus and US's recent diplomatic and trade victories.
o Mike Pompeo on a five nation-tour

o Pompeo Criticised :
• China’s human rights record - repression of Muslims and ethnic minorities
in its western Xinjiang Province
• Its aggressive trade practices- Beijing’s predatory trade practices
• Risk of allowing China to develop next-generation, high-speed wireless
networks.

o However,, in order to complete a trade deal with china ,Trump softened his
attack . Called Mr. Xi a “very, very good friend of mine” .
o The post-Brexit UK ignored American threats and allowed Huawei to have a
role in its 5G network.Shows the limits of the Trump administration’s ability
to lobby for its policies
o U.S. has threatened to sever intelligence sharing if Huawei had any
presence. U.S. officials believe that the security of information on a network
that uses Huawei technology or equipment could be compromised.