severe convective weather

operational nowcasting

Lesson 2： extrapolation technique and MCSs motion

Dr. Xiuming Wang

China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing
2020.07
10mm

Blend
NWP
25mm
BJ-ANC
 Harmony Search Algorithm

This recently developed HS

algorithm is conceptualized
using the musical process of
searching for a perfect state
of harmony. It uses a
stochastic random search
instead of a gradient search
so that derivative
information is unnecessary.

Yoon, S. S. (2019). Adaptive Blending Method of Radar-Based and

Numerical Weather Prediction QPFs for Urban Flood Forecasting.
Remote Sensing, 11(6), 642.
extrapolation

 SCIT
 TITAN
 TREC
 Storm Cell Identification and
Tracking: SCIT

Identify and track each storm

cell and give its past, present and
future (up to 1hour) positions.
Attributes table
Attributes table
Attributes table
centroid
 POD for various kind of storms (30-39dBZ,40-49dBZ, 50dBZ above)
Type POD
Isolated Severe Storm 27% 70% 96%
Isolated Non-Severe Storm 43% 68% 97%
MCS/Line 25% 64% 96%
Mini-supercell 71% 82% 96%

Average Errors of SCIT for different Lead Time

Lead Time（Minutes） Number of Samples Average Errors（km

）
5 898 2.0
15 498 5.0
30 227 9.9
45 109 15.2
60 55 22.8
TITAN
16:39BT

squall line maitain

30 minute forecast of TITAN（Purple polygon）and

observation（reflectivity shaded） of the squall line on
August 24, 2002 Anhui Province
16:08BT

squall line initiation stage

30 minute forecast of TITAN（Purple polygon）and

observation（reflectivity shaded） of the squall line on
August 24, 2002 Anhui Province
SWAN(severe weather automatic nowcasting), China's main extrapolation nowcast system use TITAN

Thunderstorm Identification ,Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting

Composite reflectivity
 Outflows in varying environmental shear scenarios

single cell convection

outflow

Multicelluar
convection

wind shear

cold pool
the lift is weak and the lift is strong and
the weak updraft is under LFC the strong updraft reach LFC, so new CI
Markowski and Richardson (2010)
multicell motion

NE

south Multi Cell Storms motion

 Speed

direction

Corfidi(1996)
MCSs motion

From Markowski 2012

 cold pools tend to
elongate in
the direction of the
mean wind

average downwind gust-

front speed may be
progressive
estimated by the mean
cloud-layer wind

(right) Plan view of an elongating cold pool, with cross sections perpendicular to the gust
front along (top) a quasi-stationary segment and (bottom) a progressive segment, showing
Corfidi(2003)
direction of cell propagation
MCS motion

error speed 5m/s direction 20degree

38/48 success 10failure
 progressive

1626

1800
 -1K

Multicellular concevtion
W move to the weter flank
for smaller CIN

wet water vapor

mix ratio

original From Richardson1999 pic From Markowski2010