CHINA POPULATION

IB Pre-Calculus
Period 6
November
Alex Borowski

Introduction:
Introduction of China Population trend
 In this investigation, I will be discussing the trend within the population
growth of Chinas population during the years of 1950 to 1995. Populations
tend to rise at ever-increasing rates, but soon start to slow down, eventually leading
into a sustainable population size. Chine is one of the best examples for this trend.

Data:
Population of China from 1950 to 1995

Year (to 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
accommo
date
analytical
work)
Year 195 195 196 196 197 197 198 198 199 199
0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5
Populati 554 609 657 729 830 927 998 107 115 122
on in .8 .0 .5 .2 .7 .8 .9 0.0 5.3 0.5
Millions

X is the year that the population was present. Y is the population in millions
during that present year.

Parameters

This chart shows the association in the middle of Years on account of 1950 and
Population in Millions of China. The X pivot is the Years seeing that 1950 (with 5
year intervals), while the Y pivot is Population in Millions. Taking a gander at the
diagram, one can perceive that at every 5 year interval, the population in millions
builds exponentially until 30 years following 1950 (1980) where the expand slowly
diminishes until it touches a horizontal asymptote where it would be able to never
go above.
The parameters is set at 0<X<50, which means that the X-axis (years since
1950) cannot go below 1950 or above 1995. It is set at these numbers because the
data collected by the IIASA for the population of China was never collected before
1950 or after 1995. As for the Y-axis, the practical range would be the data
collected by the IIASA (the agency conducting the research of China's population),
thus 554.8<Y<1220.5. The theoretical range could be any numerical value
coinciding with the theoretical domain (years since 1950), but since the data was
never collected for those years, we will never use them in the graph).

Functions that could model the end behavior

 For this chart, there are a couple of functions that could pose the
development of this diagram. For example, an exponential role itself y a(b)x would
pose the method on the grounds that much the same as the diagram, the
exponential method increments by a ratio. Nonetheless, the finish conduct of the
Chinese population diagram (as x infinity, f(x) horizontal asymptote) is not similar to
the exponential method for the reason that it bit by bit diminishes its rate of
increment (ratio) until it goes at a horizontal asymptote, while the exponential role
continually builds.
A preferred function that would be able to fit the Chinese Population chart
may be the logistic function. Not just does it increment exponentially (as does the
chart above), but it likewise diminishes its ratio until it is going at a horizontal
asymptote.

Finding Functions to represent the model:

For this graph, there are a couple of functions that may model the growth of
this graph. For instance, an exponential function itself [y=a(b)x] may model the
function because just like the graph, the exponential function increases by a ratio.
However, the end behavior of the Chinese population graph (as x--> infinity, f(x)--->
horizontal asymptote) is not like the exponential function because it gradually
decreases its rate of increase (ratio) until it approaches a horizontal asymptote,
while the exponential function constantly increases.
A better function that could fit the Chinese Population graph can be the
logistic function . Not only does it increase exponentially (as does the graph above),
but it also decreases its ratio until it is approaching a horizontal asymptote.

Basic Logistic Function y=

(c)/1+abx
 However, you can ignore Quadrant 2 of the model because it extends out of
the parameters

Calculating an equation to fit the graph:

1. The equation to find the Logistic Function
y= (c)/1+abx
y: Population in millions
c: Limit of growth (horizontal asymptote)
a: Constant: determined by initial value
b: growth factor (ratio)
x: years (since 1950)

2. Substitute the variables with the known values. For the values of x and y,
you can use any data value point, but the most logical choice would to
start with the x being zero

554.8=(1900)/1+ab0

P=(1900)/1+abx

554.8=(1900)/1+ab0

(1+ab0)554.8=(1900)/1+ab0 x 1+ab0

554.8 + 554.8a=1900

554.8+554.8a=1900
-554.8 -554.8

554.8a=1345.2
/554.8 /554.8

a= 2.42
P=(1900)/1+2.42bx

830.7=(1900)/1+2.42b20

(1+2.42b20)830.7=(1900)/1+2.42b20
x1+2.42b20

830.7 + 2010.3b20=1900
830.7+2010.3b20=1900
 -830.7 -830.7

2010.3b20=1069.3
/2010.3 /2010.3

20th root(b20)=20th root(.532)

b=0.97
Y= 1900/1+2.42(0.97)x

Comparing Chinas population of original data & the Function y= (1900)/1+2.42

(.97)x

Year 195 19 19 196 19 19 19 198 199 199

0 55 60 5 70 75 80 5 0 5
Populatio 554 60 65 729 83 92 99 107 115 122
n in .8 9.0 7.5 .2 0.7 7.8 8.9 0.0 5.3 0.5
Millions
Population 555 617. 682. 750 820. 891. 964. 1036 1107. 1176
growth .56 26 33 .26 39 99 25 .4 5 .8
from
equation
y=
(1900)/1+2
.42 (.97)x
Difference in .76 8.26 24.8 21.0 - - - -33.6 -47.8 -43.7
population 3 6 10.3 35.8 34.6
from original 1` 1 5
data to
equation y=
(1900)/1+2.
42(.97)x

My logistic function as examined in relation to the given information of

Chinese Population associate truly nearly, in particular at the early years
following 1950. They both are on the same parameters (0 x 50), and have
the same exponential development from the start, then afterward begin to
show at least a bit of kindness ratio until they are going at a horizontal
asymptote until infinity. Notwithstanding, it is not flawless to the information
given. The close conduct of the reasonable domain is easier than that of the
given data's, and that is one great issue.

Researchers suggested modeled equation for China population

P(t)= K/(1+Le-Mt)

Using Technology to find the modeled equation

1. With the model P(t)= (K)/1+Le-Mt–, I input all of the original data given
2. Compute the logistic regression

K=1946, Limit of growth (horizontal asymptote)

L=2.61, Constant
M=0.033, growth factor

P(t)= 1946/(1+2.61e-.033t)

Chinese Population Over the Years

1400

1200
Population (in millions)

1000

800
Population in Millions
Researcher's Model
600

400

200

0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Years since 1950
 Comparing Chinas population growth of the original data to the equation
P(t)= 1946/(1+2.61e-0.033t)

Year 195 195 196 196 197 197 19 198 199 199
0 5 0 5 0 5 80 5 0 5
Populatio 554. 609. 657. 729 830 927. 99 107 115 122
n in 8 0 5 .2 .7 8 8.9 0.0 5.3 0.5
Millions
Population 537. 604. 674. 749 826 905. 986 106 114 122
growth from 62 13 92 .38 .71 98 .15 6.1 4.9 1.4
equation
P(t)=1946/
(1+2.61e-
0.033t
)
Difference in - -4.87 17.4 20. - - - - - .9
population 17.1 2 18 3.9 21.8 12. 3.90 10.3
from original 8 9 19 75 0 99
data to
equation
P(t)=1946/
(1+2.61e-
0.033t
)

No matter how far they contrast in terms of information (admitting that the
first information, my logistic role, and the analyst's pose capacity all look at
correspondingly), the stated models all demonstrate that China has grim
work to revisit to in terms of population development. In simply 50
abbreviated years, the nation's population rose up to roughly twice its sum.
Although the aforementioned models predict that China will in the future
level off its population development (demonstrated by the point of
confinement of development in all poses), it nevertheless will have awfully
numerous folks to manage itself pleasingly.

China Population growth from 2008 World Economic Outlook, published by the
International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Year 1983 1992 1997 2000 2003 2005 2008

 Population 1030. 1171. 1236. 1267. 1292. 1307. 1327
in Millions 1 1 3 4 3 6 .7

The first information, when looked at in relation to the IMF information given,
in fact reliably comapres. For example, the IMF information for 1983 is 1030.
1 million individuals, while the 1980 information for the first given is simply
30 million individuals off (at 998. 9 million). This is steady with the other
years (1995 from the first and 1993 from the IMF). What one should consider,
notwithstanding, is that there are a couple of year departures from every of
the information focuses. In this manner, considering the stated, the first
information given can reliably be utilized parallel to the IMF information.

Comparing Chinas population growth of IMF data & the Function y=

(1900)/1+2.42 (.97)x

Year 1983 1992 1997 2000 2003 2005 2008

Population in 1030.1 1171.1 1236.3 1267. 1292. 1307. 1327
Millions 4 3 6 .7
Population growth 1007.6 1135.5 1203.9 1243. 1282. 1307.5 1344.
from equation y= 7 4 1
(1900)/1+2.42
(.97)x
Difference in -22.5 -35.6 -32.4 -23.7 -9.9 -.1 17
population from
original data to
equation y=
(1900)/1+2.42
(.97)x

Comparing Chinas population growth of IMF data & the function P(t)=1946/
(1+2.61e-0.033t)

Year 1983 1992 1997 2000 2003 2005 2008

Population in 1030.1 1171.1 1236.3 1267. 1292. 1307. 1327
Millions 4 3 6 .7
Population growth 1036 1177.5 1252.7 1296. 1338. 1365.6 1405.
from equation y= 3 4 1
P(t)=1946/
(1+2.61e-0.033t)
Difference in 5.9 6.4 16.4 28.9 46.1 58 77.4
population from
original data to
equation
P(t)=1946/
(1+2.61e-0.033t)

Modified Equation for IMF Data

1. Equation for IMF data

P(t)= K/ 1+Le-Mt

P(t)= (1915.2)/(1+2.64e-.033t)

I preferred this modification following inputting diverse numerical

estimations into the unvarying and utmost of development. This modification
varies from the IMF pose by 5 20 million individuals in by and large years,
excluding the final few years where the distinctions are around 30 50 million.
On the whole, this is a significant reliable pose that with enough modification
might besides faultlessly fit the IMF information.

Year 1983 1992 1997 2000 2003 2005 2008

Populati 1014.1 1153.6 1227.9 1270.9 1312.5 1339.4 1378.5
on in
millions