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MSFT - 2012 - Model
MSFT - 2012 - Model
Company Overview
(All numbers are in USD Millions, except per share data)
(Red for assumptions and Black for Calculations)
EPS diluted (reported) Rs. 0.62 Rs. 0.77 Rs. 0.61 Rs. 0.69 Rs. 2.70 Rs. 0.64 Rs. 0.66
EBIT/sales (%) 44% 41% 35% 36% 39% 39% 39%
Net income/sales (%) 33% 33% 32% 34% 33% 30% 30%
ROE 46% 56% 41% 43% 41% 37% 35%
EV/Sales 3.0 x 2.9 x
EV/EBITDA 4.5 x 4.4 x
P/E 9.8 x 9.4 x
P/Sales 2.9 x 2.8 x
Revenue Forecast
14.0%
100,000 $50.00
12.0%
80,000 $40.00
10.0%
$30.00
60,000 8.0%
6.0% $20.00
40,000
4.0% $10.00
20,000
2.0%
$-
- 0.0%
2010 A 2011 A Revenue 2012 Ey/y Growth2013
% E 2014 E
6.0% $20.00
40,000
4.0% $10.00
20,000
2.0%
$-
- 0.0%
2010 A 2011 A Revenue 2012 Ey/y Growth2013
% E 2014 E
evelops, licenses, and supports a range of software products and services for various computing devices
ys Windows & Windows Live Division segment offers PC operating system that primarily includes Windows 7
ating systems; Windows live suite of applications and Web services; and Microsoft PC hardware products. Its
ools segment provides Windows Server operating systems, Windows Azure, Microsoft SQL Server, SQL Azure,
ws Embedded, Visual Studio, Silverlight, system center products, Microsoft consulting services, and product
Rs. 0.70 Rs. 0.73 Rs. 2.73 Rs. 0.75 Rs. 0.77 Rs. 0.79 Rs. 0.81 Rs. 3.12
39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39%
30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
34% 33% 30% 32% 31% 29% 28% 26%
2.7 x 2.6 x 2.8 x 2.5 x 2.5 x 2.4 x 2.4 x 2.4 x
4.2 x 4.0 x 4.3 x 3.9 x 3.8 x 3.7 x 3.6 x 3.8 x
9.0 x 8.6 x 9.2 x 8.3 x 8.1 x 7.9 x 7.7 x 8.0 x
2.7 x 2.6 x 2.8 x 2.5 x 2.4 x 2.4 x 2.3 x 2.4 x
$60.00
$50.00
$40.00
$32.01
$30.00
$52.95
$20.00
$14.26
$10.00
$6.68
$-
Explicit Forecast First Stage of Terminal Year Total Value
Period Valuation
$20.00
$14.26
$10.00
$6.68
$-
Explicit Forecast First Stage of Terminal Year Total Value
Period Valuation
Revenue 12,920
Operating expenses:
Cost of revenue 2,842
Research and development 2,065
Sales and marketing 2,790
General and administrative 741
Total operating expenses 8,438
69,943 18,081 18,843 19,713 20,712 77,350 21,257 21,822 22,408 23,016
15,577 4,008 4,177 4,370 4,592 17,148 4,713 4,838 4,968 5,102
9,043 2,355 2,454 2,568 2,698 10,075 2,769 2,842 2,919 2,998
13,940 3,603 3,754 3,928 4,127 15,412 4,235 4,348 4,465 4,586
4,222 1,102 1,148 1,201 1,262 4,714 1,296 1,330 1,366 1,403
42,782 11,068 11,535 12,067 12,679 47,348 13,012 13,358 13,717 14,089
27,161 7,013 7,309 7,646 8,034 30,001 8,245 8,464 8,691 8,927
910 232 242 253 266 995 273 281 288 296
28,071 7,245 7,551 7,899 8,300 30,996 8,518 8,745 8,979 9,223
4,921 1,811 1,888 1,975 2,075 7,749 2,130 2,186 2,245 2,306
23,150 5,434 5,663 5,925 6,225 23,247 6,389 6,558 6,735 6,917
$ 2.73 $ 0.64 $ 0.67 $ 0.70 $ 0.74 $ 2.76 $ 0.76 $ 0.78 $ 0.80 $ 0.82
$ 2.70 $ 0.64 $ 0.66 $ 0.70 $ 0.73 $ 2.73 $ 0.75 $ 0.77 $ 0.79 $ 0.81
8,490 8,429 8,429 8,429 8,429 8,429 8,429 8,429 8,429 8,429
8,574 8,521 8,521 8,521 8,521 8,521 8,521 8,521 8,521 8,521
$ 0.64 $ 0.16 $ 0.16 $ 0.16 $ 0.16 $ 0.64 $ 0.16 $ 0.16 $ 0.16 $ 0.16
2013 E 1Q14 E 2Q14 E 3Q14 E 4Q14 E 2014 E
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Jun-14
Assets
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents
Short-term investments
Total cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments
Accounts receivable, net
Inventories
Deferred income taxes
Other
Total current assets
Long-term debt
Long-term unearned revenue
Deferred income taxes
Other long-term liabilities
Total liabilities
Stockholders' equity:
Common Stock
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income
Total stockholders' equity
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity
Checksum
Current Ratio
Cash Ratio
DSO
DOH
Payable Days
Total Debt
ROE %
1Q10 A 2Q10 A 3Q10 A 4Q10 A 2010 A 1Q11 A 2Q11 A 3Q11 A
Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
82,001
43,162
125,163
20,741
1,898
2,467
3,320
153,590
8,555
10,865
12,581
744
1,434
187,769
6,133
-
3,575
580
24,318
1,208
3,492
39,306
8,921
1,398
1,456
8,072
59,153
134,948
(6,332)
128,616
187,769
3.91
3.18
18.30
7.56
24.26
8,921
23%
Microsoft Corp.
Cash Flow Statement
(All numbers are in USD Millions, except per share data)
(Red for assumptions and Black for Calculations)
1Q09 A 2Q09 A 3Q09 A 4Q09 A 2009 A
Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Jun-09
Operations
Net income
Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash from operations:
Depreciation, amortization, and other noncash items
Stock-based compensation
Net recognized losses (gains) on investments and derivatives
Excess tax benefits from stock-based compensation
Deferred income taxes
Deferral of unearned revenue
Recognition of unearned revenue
Changes in operating assets and liabilities:
Accounts receivable
Inventories
Other current assets
Other long-term assets
Accounts payable
Other current liabilities
Other long-term liabilities
Net cash from operations
Investing
Additions to property and equipment
Acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired
Purchases of investments
Maturities of investments
Sales of investments
Securities lending payable
Net cash used in investing
Financing
Short-term borrowings, maturities of 90 days or less, net
Proceeds from issuance of debt, maturities longer than 90 days
Repayments of debt, maturities longer than 90 days
Common stock issued
Common stock repurchased
Common stock cash dividends paid
Excess tax benefits from stock-based compensation
Other
Net cash used in financing
0 (186) - - - - - - -
0 6,960 - - - - - - -
0 (814) - - - - - - -
180 2,422 - - - - - - -
(1,256) (11,555) - - - - - - -
(1,350) (5,180) (1,349) (1,349) (1,349) (1,349) (5,395) (1,349) (1,349)
3 17 - - - - - - -
0 (40) - - - - - - -
(2,423) (8,376) (1,349) (1,349) (1,349) (1,349) (5,395) (1,349) (1,349)
20 103 - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - (1,000) - - (2,000) (3,000)
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
(1,349) (1,349) (5,395) (1,349) (1,349) (1,349) (1,349) (5,395)
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
(1,349) (1,349) (5,395) (2,349) (1,349) (1,349) (3,349) (8,395)
- - - - - - - -
Segment Revenue
Windows & Windows Live Division 2,880
Server and Tools 3,550
Online Services Division 487
Microsoft Business Division 4,514
Entertainment and Devices Division 1,412
Unallocated and other 77
Consolidated 12,920
checksum -
Q/Q % Growth
Windows & Windows Live Division
Server and Tools
Online Services Division
Microsoft Business Division
Entertainment and Devices Division
Unallocated and other
Consolidated
2Q10 A 3Q10 A 4Q10 A 2010 A 1Q11 A 2Q11 A 3Q11 A 4Q11 A
Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11
Revenues 12,920
Cost as % of Revenues
Effective Tax Rate (Provision for Income Tax / Income Before Tax) 25%
Depreciation
Depreciation as % of Opening PPE, Net
Debt Schedule
Debt Repayment
Debt Tranche - 1
Debt Tranche - 2
Debt Tranche - 3
Debt Tranche - 4
Debt Tranche - 5
Debt Tranche - 6
Debt Tranche - 7
Debt Tranche - 8
Debt Tranche - 9
Debt Tranche - 10
Debt Tranche - 11
Debt Tranche - 12
2009 A 1Q10 A 2Q10 A 3Q10 A 4Q10 A 2010 A 1Q11 A 2Q11 A 3Q11 A
Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11
11,896 31,227
(7,746) (28,935)
4,150 2,292 588 613 641 673 2,514 691 709
24% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
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3Q13 E 4Q13 E 2013 E 1Q14 E 2Q14 E 3Q14 E 4Q14 E 2014 E
Mar-13 Jun-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Jun-14
- - - (1,000) - - - (1,000)
- - - - - - (2,000) (2,000)
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
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Microsoft Corp.
Valuation
(All numbers are in USD Millions, except per share data)
(Red for assumptions and Black for Calculations)
Projection Year 1 2 3 4
Discount Factor 0.90 0.81 0.73 0.65
Present Value of FCF 18,582 19,446 19,263 26,207
5 6 7 8 9
0.59 0.53 0.47 0.42 0.38
25,640 24,746 23,560 22,124 20,488
9% 7% 6% 4% 3%
9% 7% 6% 4% 3%
9% 7% 6% 4% 3%
9% 7% 6% 4% 3%