SPE-198165-MS

Alternative Fuels Development in Europe: Threat or Opportunity for the

Middle East?

Maarten Van Haute, Kuwait Petroleum Research and Technology B.V.

Copyright 2019, Society of Petroleum Engineers

This paper was prepared for presentation at the SPE Kuwait Oil & Gas Conference and Show held in Mishref, Kuwait, 13 - 16 October 2019.

This paper was selected for presentation by an SPE program committee following review of information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents
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Abstract
PART IFuels Developments in Europe: a threat?:
Introduction
In 2015 195 members of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have
signed the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016, after being
ratified by 55 countries - representing at least 55% of total greenhouse gas emissions.
The Paris Agreement's long-term goal is to keep the increase in global average temperature to well below
2 °C above pre-industrial levels; and to limit the increase to 1.5 C, since this would substantially reduce the
risks and effects of climate change. Being aware of climate change, aleady in 2009 The European Union
published the original Renewable Energy Directive (RED 2009/28/EC) that establishes an overall policy
for the production and promotion of energy from renewable sources in the EU. It requires the EU to fulfil
at least 20% of its total energy needs with renewables by 2020 – to be achieved through the attainment of
individual national targets. As a subtarget all EU member states must also ensure that at least 10% of their
transport fuels come from renewable sources by 2020.
In December 2018, the revised Renewable Energy Directive 2018/2001/EU entered into force. It
establishes a new binding renewable energy target for the EU for 2030 of at least 32%, with a clause for
a possible upwards revision by 2023. Under the new Governance regulation, EU countries are required to
draft 10-year National Energy & Climate Plans (NECPs) for 2021-2030, outlining how they will meet the
new 2030 targets for renewable energy and for energy efficiency. The subtarget of for renewable energy
in transport is raised to 14%.

PART IFuels Developments in Europe: a threat?

Introduction
In 2015 195 members of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have
signed the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016, after being
ratified by 55 countries - representing at least 55% of total greenhouse gas emissions.
2 SPE-198165-MS

The Paris Agreement's long-term goal is to keep the increase in global average temperature to well below
2 °C above pre-industrial levels; and to limit the increase to 1.5 C, since this would substantially reduce the
risks and effects of climate change. Being aware of climate change, aleady in 2009 The European Union
published the original Renewable Energy Directive (RED 2009/28/EC) that establishes an overall policy
for the production and promotion of energy from renewable sources in the EU. It requires the EU to fulfil
at least 20% of its total energy needs with renewables by 2020 – to be achieved through the attainment of
individual national targets. As a subtarget all EU member states must also ensure that at least 10% of their
transport fuels come from renewable sources by 2020.
In December 2018, the revised Renewable Energy Directive 2018/2001/EU entered into force. It
establishes a new binding renewable energy target for the EU for 2030 of at least 32%, with a clause for
a possible upwards revision by 2023. Under the new Governance regulation, EU countries are required to
draft 10-year National Energy & Climate Plans (NECPs) for 2021-2030, outlining how they will meet the
new 2030 targets for renewable energy and for energy efficiency. The subtarget of for renewable energy
in transport is raised to 14%.

Figure 1—Overview targets of revised RED

The scope of this abstract is limited to the 14% renewable energy targets in transport and its possible
impact for the Middle East. The target is a percentage of the final energy consumption in road and rail
transport.

Transport targets in RED explained

Definitions. As an introduction a selection of definitions from RED are quoted:
– (33) ‘biofuels’ means liquid fuel for transport produced from biomass;
– (34) ‘advanced biofuels’ means biofuels that are produced from the non-food feedstocks, like straw,
listed in Part A of Annex IX;
– (35) ‘recycled carbon fuels’(RCF) means liquid and gaseous fuels that are produced from liquid
or solid waste streams of non- renewable origin which are not suitable for material recovery in
accordance with Article 4 of Directive 2008/98/EC, or from waste processing gas and exhaust gas of
non-renewable origin which are produced as an unavoidable and unintentional consequence of the
production process in industrial installations;
SPE-198165-MS 3

– (36) ‘renewable liquid and gaseous transport fuels of non-biological origin’(RFNBO) means liquid or
gaseous fuels which are used in the transport sector other than biofuels or biogas, the energy content
of which is derived from renewable sources other than biomass;
– 40) ‘food and feed crops’ means starch-rich crops, sugar crops or oil crops produced on agricultural
land as a main crop excluding residues, waste or ligno-cellulosic material and intermediate crops,
such as catch crops and cover crops, provided that the use of such intermediate crops does not trigger
demand for additional land;
– 41) ‘ligno-cellulosic material’ means material composed of lignin, cellulose and hemicellulose, such
as biomass sourced from forests, woody energy crops and forest-based industries' residues and wastes;
The revised version contains several options to reach the target and contains restrictive subtargets (caps),
minimum subtargets and new possibilities:
– Restrictive subtargets (caps) → the maximum share of food and feed crops in the renewable energy
target is limited to 7%. This restriction is set to avoid increasing competition of the energy industry
with the foodchain. Another issue with food and feed based biofuels is the vast deforestation linked to
it (e.g. palm oil). The latter sometimes showed an averse effect, being a net increase in CO2 emissions
over the entire lifecycle of some biofuels. However the possible use of those food and feed based
biofuels is kept to insure a stable investment environment for companies, being a trade off between
protection of the bio based industry and protection of global food reserves.
– Minimum targets → by 2030 the share of advanced biofuels must be minimum 3,5%. Those are
biofuels from waste feedstocks, being agricultural and forestry waste, organic municipal waste,
sewedge sludge…. A list is taken up in the RED in annex IX. Part B of annex IX contains feedstocks,
from which the contribtion may be considered twice their energy content: i.e. used cooking oil and
animal fats not suitable for consumption.
– New possibilities → The remaining 3,5% may be covered with novel renewable fuels, i.e. recycled
carbon fuels, renewable fuels of non-biological origin. The abstract will go further into detail later
in this document on these new possibilities, since they are assumed opportunities for the Middle
East[HH1]
Different type fuels and their targets are summarized hereunder in the table.

Table 1—Different type of renewable fuels

Comments, contribution to overall RES-T

Full name Examples
objective and Multiplier effect

biofuels, bio-liquids and biomass fuels produced

Biodiesel, bioethanol – Max 7%,
from food and feed crops

Advanced biofuels and biogas produced from the – Min 3.5 %

Using bio-wastes as a feedstock
feedstock listed in Part A of Annex IX – Multiplier effect : 2x their energy content

Advanced biofuels and biogas produced from the Using used cooking oils and animals fats as a
– Multiplier effect : 2x their energy content
feedstock listed in Part B of Annex IX feedstock

Electricity supplied to the road and rail transport Direct electrification and battery electric vehicles – Multiplier effect : 4x (road) and 1.5x (rail)

– Also when they are used as intermediate

Renewable liquid and gaseous transport fuels of
non-biological origin
products for the production of conventional
Renewable hydrogen, methane, methanol, fuels.
ammonia, … – GHG savings must be at least 70% in
comparison with the defined benchmarks.
– Multiplier effect : to be clarified

– Optional for Member States.

Recycled carbon fuels1 – RCF Delegated act expected by 1 January
2021.
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Comments, contribution to overall RES-T

Full name Examples
objective and Multiplier effect

– Minimum 14% in 2030

– Multiplier effect : 1.2x for shipping and
aviation (from non food or feed based)

It is important to look at the calculation rules with regard to the minimum shares of renewable energy
in the transport sector. The obtained share of renewables is the result of the fraction with a pre-defined
denominator and numerator:
– The calculation of the denominator is the energy content of road- and railtransport fuels supplied
for consumption or use on the market, both renewable, fossil fuels and electricity.
– The calculation of the numerator is the amount of energy from renewable sources consumed in the
transport sector for the purposes of the 14% target, the energy content of all types of energy from
renewable sources supplied to all transport sectors, including renewable electricity supplied to the
road and rail transport sectors. Member States may also take into account recycled carbon fuels.
When taking a closer look to the table and the calculation rules it is clear that the energy consumed in the
aviation and marine sector are not counted to the share of energy consumed on the market (denominator),
but they may be caluculated as part of the share of renewables, and even 1,2 times their energy. This may
be an incentive for member states to promote the use of renewables in those sectors
For some fuels multipliers are set, it means that the energy content of such fuels may be multiplied
when calculating the numerator. These multipliers are added in favour of some renewable fuels to overcome
higher production costs or to enhance investments in certain sectors. They have different backgrounds and
rationals, that is not always clear to the public. Some are the result of the strong lobby of some sectors.

Potential effect on fossil fuel consumption in transport

The figure hereunder is published on the website of the International Energy Agency (IEA), as part of their
World Energy Outlook 2017 (WEO). IEA made assumptions based on different scenarios. The different
scenarios are not discussed as part of this paper. The chart shows the change in global oil demand by sector
in their "new policies" scenarios. These calculations take into account proposed policies and targets already
announced by governements, that will have an impact on the integration of renewables.
The chart based on these scenarios is referred to and showed many times on conferences. That is why it
is chosen for this abstract. This figure shows clearly that the demand oil for passenger vehicles will reduce
from 2020. This is mainly due to increasing electrification of the car fleet, better fuel economy and anounced
ICE bans in some European countries. It is generally expected that short distance transport will be fully
electrified by 2040 and that from 2020 onwards the share of electrical private vehicles will grow quickly.
SPE-198165-MS 5

Figure 2—Change in global energy demand

On the other hand for long haul transport modes, light road fright, aviation and shipping, the figure shows
an increase (positive change) in oil demand. Those industries are expected to depend on liquid fuels for
many decades to come. Electrification of the marine and aviation sector is unlikely mainly due to low energy
density (i.e. weight) of batteries and long charging times required.
The marine sector is currently investigating the use of hydrogen based fuels like ammonia, liquid
hydrogen, e-methanol… The biggest challenge of the sector regarding the use of hydrogen based fuels, is
the onboard storage of energy. In short term biofuels can be a transitional solution.
As part of their CO2-abatement plan, the aviation sector is focusing on biofuels or sustainable aviation
fuels (SAF). Currenlty 5 types of biofuel production pathways are ASTM-certified, but the amounts
available are still limited mainly due to very limited production capacity and price difference.

Conclusion
Out of the developments and forecasts above we can conclude that an increasing demand for renewable
energy will have an impact on the demand of oil in some sectors. Especially for short distance transport
modes enough alternatives exist to replace fossil fuels. This causes a threatening situation for oil supply to
that market segment, since the global market of electrical cars is growing.
Long haul transport like aviation and shipping are considered so called "hard-to-abate" sectors. For
long distance traffic a lot of energy must be on board of the vehicle, so energy density remains a critical
parameter. Currenlty liquid fuels are so far the best solution for those sectors. The limited availability and
low technological readiness of advanced biofuels production methods will protect the dependence on fossil
fuels.

PART II: from threat to opportunity

As discussed above the production and consumption of fossil fuels will gradually be reduced, and replaced
by renewable alternatives. This is an economically threatening situation, especially if the GDP of the
country is depending on oil. The energy transition is a slow but steady process, so the countries in the
Middle East are reviewing their long term strategies. For example focusing on developing countries (Asia,
Africa…) or upgrading refineries to integrated petro-chemical complexes to supply new markets with crude
6 SPE-198165-MS

based chemicals. But the energy transition and renewable energy developments may offer solutions or
opportunities for other issues.

Introduction on Terminology
Before discussing the opportunities, this chapter starts with a paragraph to define the most important terms
that will be used later. Renewable energy is any naturally occurring, theoretically inexhaustible source of
energy. It is obvious that energy resources like solar, wind, hydrothermal, tidal… energy fall under this
category. Bioenergy is energy from biomass, which is any plant or animal material. When considering
biomass as renewable energy resource, there's an important time-aspect related to it. Biomass energy that
can be replenished naturally within a human lifetime is also considered renewable. The time-aspect rules
out fossil oil that is also formed by biomass, but in a process that took millions of years. Renewable fuels
are fuels made from renewable energy and feedstock of renewable nature.
Next to renewability it is also important to use sustainable energy sources. Sustainable energy is the
principle in which human production and consumption of that energy meets the needs of the present, without
compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. The most important aspects to
consider are clean production methods (e.g less pesticides, crop rotation,…) and less energy consuming
techniques.

Overview of Renewable Fuels

In this chapter an overview of different type of renewable fuels, as identified in the Renewable Energy
Directive are listed and explained. In the next chapter potential opportunities for the Middle East are further
explained. As mentioned in the disclaimer of this paper, it is not meant to give a complete overview, but a
sample of opportunities that are worth to be investigated further.
Biofuels. According to the definition in the Renewable Energy Directive ‘biofuels’ means liquid fuel for
transport produced from biomass. Before we start discussing biofuels, a small comparison with crude oil.
The beginning of crude oil formation happened millions of years ago. Oil is a fossil fuel that has been
formed from a large amount of plants, animals, and marine micro-organisms such as algae and zooplankton.
At the bottom of the ocean they got trapped under multiple layers of sand and mud. In ultra high pressure
and anaerobic conditions during millions of years they were converted (or pre-treated) to crude oil. These
conditions lead to a low oxygen, homogenous, energy dense product with a wide variety of hydrocarbons.
As such you might even consider crude oil a fuel from biomass, but because the biomass is fossil and the
process cannot be replenished within a human timescale it is not at all considered renewable.
Biomass used to produce biofuels is also a mix of hydrocarbons, but differs in a few critical ways. It has
high oxygen content, has a rather limited amount and type of unsaturated hydrocarbons. For example animal
fat and oil seeds contain triglycerides, woody biomass is mainly consisting of cellulose and lignine. The
oxygen, unsaturated hydrocarbons, which are less stable, and limited amount of hydrocarbon species are
the biggest challenge for biofuels production. These feedstocks all need a pre-treatment step to liquefy or
gasify the hydrocarbons, so they can be processed in a refinery-unit. There are many different pre-treatment
options for many different feedstocks under development. The figure hereunder shows examples of different
pathways to renewable fuels. This is just to show the complexity and the many options. Many research
activities are ongoing to develop the most appropriate parthway. Not every feedstock is available everywhere
in sufficient quantities.
SPE-198165-MS 7

Figure 3—pathways to renewable fuels (source: http://www.advancedbiofuelsassociation.com)

The Renewable Energy Directive makes a distinction between ‘biofuels’ (first generation) and ‘advanced
biofuels’. Advance biofuels are those made of feedstocks mentioned in Annex IX. These feedstock are in
general waste based/non-food feestocks. The allowed percentage of first generation biofuels is capped. The
supply of this first generation is not limited by availability or lack of conversion processes, but due to its
competition with the foodchain and the vast deforestation.
To become sustainable one should aim for development of advanced biofuels, where the choice of
feedstock, pretreatment- and conversion technology is key. Feedstocks will be at much lower volumes then
crude and less constant in quality, so the advanced biofuels processing industry will rather exist of many
little bio-processing units scattered around the nation. Feedstock pre-treatment will be executed close to the
feestock and the liquid effluents can then be transported to larger scale refineries. It is clear that a company
will choose for feestock available close to the refineries. In the Middle East region algae, organic MSW and
seaweed are more likely to be explored then woody and forestry biomass
Recycled Fuels. According to the Renewable Energy Directive ‘Recycled carbon fuels’ means liquid
and gaseous fuels that are produced from liquid or solid waste streams of non-renewable origin which are
not suitable for material recovery in tradintional mechanical recycling, or from waste processing gas and
exhaust gas of non-renewable origin which are produced as an unavoidable and unintentional consequence
of the production process in industrial installations. Such waste stream can be non-recyclabe plastic waste,
CO2-exhaust from metal factories, exhaust gases from waste incineration etc…
In this paper one example of recycled fuels is discussed, since it offers an opportunity (see later). The
figure hereunder shows a simplified scheme of the production of liquid fuel from plastic waste: plastic-
to-fuel.
The feedstock for this process is separated plastic waste, which is depolymerized and condensed to a
paraffinic liquid, that can further be processed to fuel.
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Figure 4—Plast- to-Fuel

The first challenge to process plastics is the separation process into different type of plastics. The most
important plastic flows are PP, PE and PS. Other plastics must be avoided due to amongst others metallurgic
incompatibility in refineries or other application (e.g PET). Other materials like metals, paper must be
removed as well.
The depolymerized material can be fed into a naptha cracker, and depending on the molecule size be a
precursor for various gasoline blend components.
Renewable Fuels of Non Biological Origin (RFNBO). According to the Renewable Energy Directive
‘Renewable liquid and gaseous transport fuels of non-biological origin’ mean liquid or gaseous fuels which
are used in the transport sector other than biofuels or biogas of which, the energy content is derived from
renewable sources other than biomass.
The most important RFNBOs is renewable hydrogen with different potential in the transport sector.[HH2]
The first application is direct use of renewable hydrogen in hydrogen fuel cel car. Hydrogen is fueled
in gaseous form and in the fuel cell in the car converted to electricity, that is stored in a small battery. The
electricity is used to energize electro-engines, similar to battery vehicle electricle cars. The main difference
is the size of the battery, the time to refuel and the km-range.
Another option is the use of hydrogen in shipping industry. Because large amounts of hydrogen are
needed for a seagoing vessels, it is more likely to convert the hydrogen into a liquide fuel like ammonia or
methanol. This is currently under investigation by the shipping industry. The largest challenge is the energy
storage. Some shipyards are doing research with direct injection of hydrogen into ICE.
Hydrogen can also be converted to e-fuel. Ambient CO2 and water is co-processed in an electrolyser
powered with renewable electricity. The H2 and CO (syngas) at the outlet is then converted by means
of Fischer-Tropsch reaction or by industrial fermentation in a bio-crude that can further be refined into
paraffinic fuels (diesel & jetfuel).
Next to the use of the energy of hydrogen in a vehicle the Renewable Energy Directive created the
opportunity to take into account RFNBO also when they are used as intermediate products for the
SPE-198165-MS 9

production of conventional fuels. This options was added to give an extra possibility for petroleum refiners
to contribute to the 14% objective in the refinery, but also to create a way to upscale the hydrogen industry.
A win-win situation. The cost of renewable hydrogen can now be benchmarked against the economic value
of advanced biofuels. In the next chapter this potential opportunity is explained.

Opportunities
This chapter focusses on potential opportunities that can be explored in the Middle East. It contains high
level descriptions of some options, that still need further feasibility studies and economic analysis.
Solid Municipal Waste-to-fuel. The State of Kuwait is among the highest per capita waste generator in
the world. Mainly because of high standards of living and rapid economical growth. More then 2 million
ton of solide waste is generated and mainly disposed in huge landfill burial areas. These sites generate
toxic gases (methane, carbon monoxide…) and are plagued by spontaneous fires and cause danger to public
health, because they are sometimes on the edges of residential areas. This solid waste can be managed in
a better way.
On www.researchgate.net a study "An Integrated Solid Waste Management System in Kuwait" is freely
available. It showed the need for management of solid waste in Kuwait. A finding of the study is that 76% of
the waste in Kuwait can be recycled. The Kuwait Central Statistical Bureau showed that 50% of the MSW
is organic waste, 22% is paper and 13% are plastics. These three types of waste are potential feedstock for
renewable or recycled fuels.
In Europe research projects are developed to find the best conversion technology from waste-to-fuel.
Many of these projects are funded partly by the European Commission. Different conversion technologies
are being tested to pre-treat waste and to separate it into different flows. For example
– Paper sludge is converted to cellulose, that is further depolymerized to glucose. The glucose is used as
growth medium in fermenters. Depending on the type of micro-organisms diferrent type of biofuels
are produced. Ethanol for gasoline, tryglicerides as feedstock for paraffinic fuels…
– Fermentors can also be fed with gases as growth medium
– PS, PE and PP can be depolymerized and recycled for naptha or waxes
– Lignin fractions of the organic waste are feedstock for bio jet fuel or base chemicals
This offers a win-win. First of all it is one of the solutions for the reduction of municipal waste, and next
the renewable and recycled fuels can be exported to the EU as blendstock, where they can count towards
the 14% renewable energy targets. Where waste was considered useless, it is turned into a valuable product.
Next to export the renewable and recycled fuels can also be co-processed locally. Co-processing means
that the renewable or recycled liquids can be blended with HFO and processed in hydrocracking units or
blended with diesel cuts and processed in desulphurization units. If blended in limited amounts, and properly
pre-treated the renewable of recycled liquids will not have a negative impact on the catalyst. With co-
processing the total carbon footprint of the fuel is reduced.
Green Hydrogen (H2) for low carbon fuels and export. In the previous chapter we explained briefly
how biomass and waste can be integrated in the feedstock supply of the refinery. However there is another
opportunity: use of green hydrogen in the refinery.
Refineries are globally in the top three biggest users of hydrogen for mainly desulphurization and
hydrocracking processes. The hydrogen is mainly produced by in a steam methane reforming unit (SMR).
In a SMR-unit natural gas is thermo-catalytically cracked into CO2 and H2. On average 20% of the CO2
emissions of a refinery are coming from this SMR-unit. These emissions can be avoided or reduced, by
means of the use of renewable hydrogen or low carbon hydrogen
10 SPE-198165-MS

– Renewable hydrogen can be made by means of electrolysis of water by using electricity from
renewable sources e.g. wind, solar…
– Low carbon hydrogen can be produced by means of combining SMR with carbon capture utilization
(CCU) of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. Instead of emitting the CO2 it is captured
and stored, what decarbonizes the hydrogen at the refinery.
According to the Renewable Energy Directive framework the use of renewable hydrogen can be counted
towards the 14% renewable energy target, so when producing for the European market the lower carbon
footprint creates extra economical value. If the hydrogen can be produced at low cost i.e. when renewable
electricity prices are low, it might create new business opportunities.

Figure 5—Use of renewable hydrogen in a refinery

Hydrogen is currenly high on the European political agenda, and next to refineries, fertilizer industry
and metal producers will use green hydrogen for their decarbonisation purposes. Hydrogen fuel cell cars
are slowly implemented in the market. The demand for hydrogen in Europe will likely be higher then
the production capacity, so Europe might be depending on renewable hydrogen imports. This creates also
another potential business opportunity with renewable hydrogen.
Hydrogen can be shipped intercontinentally in the form of Amonia, LOHC?, liquid hydrogen… Not a
lot of information is publicaly available, but the need for intercontinal hydrogen transport is mentioned in
multiple media, and is part of the annual plan of the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking. Due to the
abundance of sun and knowhow to process and distribute gases and liquids, there is a high potential for the
ME to engage and study future business models for export of renewable hydrogen.
Micro Algae-to-biofuels. For many years R&D work is executed on the use of micro algae for
biofuels production. Due to their high productivity and their potential for avoiding competition with arable
lands, microalgae are regarded as a valuable feedstock for biorefining operations. However, their current
production scale and costs are a hurdle for full-scale commercialisation. The main challenges are efficiency
of the cultivation method (in terms of growth rate and product synthesis rate); harvesting and separation
of the microalgal biomass from the culture medium and pre-treatment of the algal biomass to release its
components (mainly lipids, proteins, carbohydrates) for further conversion
SPE-198165-MS 11

Growth rate and productivity of microalgae are affected by a number of factors such as availability of
nutrients in the right amounts and compositions, presence of actinomycetes or other fungi, pH, light intensity
and temperature.
Open pond systems have relatively low capital costs and high scalability but may feature uneven mixing
and nutrition conditions and are vulnerable to contamination and intrusion of alien species.
Photobioreactor and closed-loop systems allow to better control growth conditions, but on the other hand
require higher capital costs as well as higher maintenance costs.
Harvesting of microalgae is challenging and expensive due to small cell size and relatively low
concentration. Several pre-treatment methods are employed, depending on the feedstock and desired
products (chemical, enzymatic, physical, involving ionic liquids). The wide variability of microalgal
feedstock composition and optimal growth conditions means that there is no one-fits-all solution;
cultivation, harvesting and processing must be tailored to each species and product.
In general the technology is still premature, the yields are low and unfortunately limited information is
publicaly available. Because of the abundance of solar energy, availability of salt water and surface it is
worth looking at this feedstock for biofuel production.

Part III: General Conclusion

The aim of this paper was to give a general overview of potential new business cases for the Middle East.
Next to business cases it serves potential with regards to abatement of own CO2 emissions.
Feasibility studies should be executed to create innovative business models. What are the interesting
feedstocks? What is the most efficient conversion technology? What are the legal obstacles and how can
the EU framework help to create business cases?