MEN Assignment 2010

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01Fall

March
2010
08

MBA – Managerial Environment (MEN

Author:
Nkululeko Conny Setjeo

Summary:
This document contains four sections, which are answers to the four
questions given as an assignment for the class work covered in the
2nd semester of the 1st year of my MBA in the above-mentioned
subject.

Author: NNC SETJEO for Milpark Business School 2010 MBA - MEN Page 1 of 22
INDEX

Question 1. 3
Introduction 3
1.1 South African Recession 3
1.2 Demand and Supply 4
1.3 Riding the recession wave 5
Labour 5
Technology 5
Infrastructure 5
Question 2. 7
Introduction 7
Market structures 7
2.1 Pure or perfect competition 7
2.2 Pure monopoly 9
2.3 Monopolistic competition 10
2.4 Oligopoly 11
Question 3. 13
Introduction 13
3.1 What it FDI 14
3.2 Benefits of FDI into a country 14
3.3 South Africa’s attempts to attract FDI 14
3.4 R: $ Exchange volatility and its impact on FDI 16
Question 4. 18
Introduction 18
4.1 Fiscal Policy 19
4.2 Revenue Budget 21
Referencing 22

QUESTION 1

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Introduction
The question states that South Africa was in recession 2008/09 and as a result of
that, Company XYZ, an automotive component, its turnover has dropped by 40%
and its profits by 50%. The assumption is that had it not been for the recession
the company’s turnover and profits might have stayed the same or perhaps
improved. Mine is not to prove whether the assumption is true or not but it is
however to provide a hypothetical advice to the management of Company XYZ
on how to apply microeconomics is order for the company to compile appropriate
operational and pricing policies in terms of demand and supply and discuss the
methodology that the company’s management need to apply.

1.1 South African Recession


According to a Business Report article, to be in a recession means that
country’s GDP has to experience shrinkage in two consecutive quarters.
During the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 the economy
shrunk by 1.8%, which means that the 6.4% contraction has caused the
country to enter into a recession.

The contraction in growth resulted in a fairly large decline in the demand


for exports from South Africa. This decline has had a negative impact on
the country’s manufacturing industries. The Automotive Industry being
one of the hard hit.

The recession means that there will be retrenchments and interests rates
would be higher. For the automotive industry this simply means that the
financing of a car would be more expensive and the opportunity cost of
capital is higher which will slow down the purchase of a new car.

1.2 Demand and Supply


Having established that the recession would result in demand declining, it
would be probable to conclude from that premise that supply would also
decline, shifting both the supply and the demand curves and therefore
establishing a new equilibrium. The new equilibrium, from E to E1, would

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mean that the price would go up and quantity supplied would be reduced.
As shown in Figure 1.2.1 below, the recession would cause a negative
shift in demand from D to D1 and the same would be applicable to supply
shifting from S to S1. The price would rise up from P to P1 and the
quantity would reduce from Q to Q1. Though profits are not shown in the
figure below, they would however be reduced.

Figure 1.2.1

S1

P1 E1

P E

D1 D

Table 1.2.2 below is explained as follows:


“+” Represents an increase
“-“ Represents a decrease
“Blank” represents that there is no change
“?” Indicates that the net change can not be determined without knowing
the magnitude of the shift in demand and supply

Table 1.2.2

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Company Demand Supply Equilibrium Equilibrium Marginal Marginal Profits
XYZ State Shift Shift Price Quantity Cost Revenue
Past + + + + +

Present - - + - + - -

Future + + + + + + +

The table above indicates that Company XYZ was making a profit in the
past, before the recession and everything within the operations of that
company was balanced. However with the recession facing the company,
the demand curve has shifted to the left as well as the supply curve. Due
to input prices having gone up, as result of recession, the company’s
prices have also gone up. With less disposable income and less
employment the likelihood of the company producing more goods to meet
the demand is very slim. Therefore their quantity has also decreased.
With marginal costs having increased since it has become more
expensive to produce their products. In addition, the company’s marginal
revenue has decreased resulting in decreased profits by 50%.

1.3 Riding the recession wave


Given the current situation there is nothing much that Company XYZ can
do in terms of its prices. Reason being, their suppliers of raw materials
haven’t reduced their prices. In fact the probability is that due to the
recession and the prices going up, their suppliers might have increased
their prices. It therefore means that it has become more expensive for the
Company XYZ to produce even lesser quantity. In my opinion, they would
rather package their products in a complementary manner for promotional
purposes. For example buy four tyres and get a free lock-nuts. In
addition, Company XYZ may look at other variable costs to reduce their
average costs.

Labor

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Cash flow is difficult to manage and therefore labour costs would be one
cost that the company needs to cut down on. The renewal of contracts for
consultants at this stage should not be renewed. Job rotations and work
restructuring should be revisited to allow for workers to work less hours
without interfering with the quality of work. Where work was formerly done
by employees, outsourcing to vendors that are willing to adjust their costs
based on the changing workload is also another option in order to reduce
labor cost.

Technology
With profits having declined by 50% it would not be a wise move for the
company to invest in any new technology, though new technology could
save transformation cost. With that said, should any of their machinery
break presently, that would halt the production and therefore result in
further reduced profits. It would therefore be wise for the Company XYZ to
plan ahead for any possibility of machine shutdown. The surplus supply of
products that the company needs to shed may act as a buffer during the
shutdown period.
Infrastructure
It would be advisable for the company to move their production to smaller
premises if where they are currently they are on lease. This would reduce
rental and maintenance costs.
QUESTION 2

Introduction
To fully understand what Market Structures are, one needs to be clear on the
understanding of a Market to start with. According to Armstrong & Kotler (2009),
“A market is the set of actual and potential buyers of a product. These buyers
share a particular need or want that can be satisfied through exchange
relationships.” These relationships between the actual and potential buyers
would be formed with the actual sellers of the sought product, the company. The
firm usually and most often operates in an environment where there are other
firms who offer the same product to the same market. Meaning the firm has

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competition within the market in which it operates in to sell its products. The
manner or the behavior in which the firm operates is influenced by its own market
and its cost of production. However, the market is not only limited to the actual
and potential buyers, the number of competitors and the cost of production of the
firm. The market would also include size of the actual and potential buyers, the
size of the competition, nature of the product, the availability of information and
the barriers of entry and exit of the market as a whole. These inclusions are
what make a market structure. They are simply the features that influence and
determine the behavior of company as it operates its business.

Market Structures
Market structures are divided into four categories, namely:
2.1 Pure or perfect competition
2.2 Pure monopoly
2.3 Monopolistic competition
2.4 Oligopoly

These four market structures have distinct characteristics and differences


between them, which are discussed below.

2.1 Pure or perfect competition


Pure competition is a state when the suppliers compete to sell the product
to the buyers and the buyers compete to obtain the product from the
suppliers. In this structure both the sellers and the buyers of the product do
not have control over the price. The price is determined by the interactions
between both the supply and the demand, therefore both the suppliers and
buyers are price takers and not price setters.

Characteristics of pure competition


• There must be a large number of buyers
• There are a large number of small firms.
• No individual supplier or buyer can influence the price.
• No collusion, the price is determined by supply and demand.

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• Producers produce a standardized or homogeneous product,
meaning the characteristics of the product are the same.
• No barriers to entry or exit of the market.
• Both buyers and suppliers have perfect knowledge of the market. If
one company raises its price then the buyers would know that other
companies are charging a lower price and they would therefore not
buy from the supplier with a higher price.

An example of pure competition would be street vendors selling fruit and


vegetable. The product is homogeneous and both the buyers and sellers
do not influence price. However the unstated assumption of this market
sector is that price is the only communication between both the suppliers
and the buyers.

2.1 Pure monopoly


A monopoly is a case in which a single firm or company is dominating the
entire market with a niche or unique product and does not have a substitute.

Characteristics of pure monopoly


• Entry into the market by other companies is completely blocked.
• Most often the company will have complete information on the market
participant, making it impossible for any of the market participants to
influence the price. However, the company’s control over the price is
limited by the market demand and the goal of maximizing profits.
Meaning that once the company has set the price the quantity of the
product sold is dependent of the market demand. Due to the fact that
this structure is constrained by the market demand and that the price is
highly inelastic, the company may exploit the consumers by reducing
the quantity of supplied product thereby creating a scarcity in the
market. When a price of a product is inelastic consumers tend to buy
less of the product when the price is high. Therefore, by creating
scarcity an impression of “if I don’t buy now I may never get it” is

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created in the consumer, this will results in more demand, which in turn
the company will return to normal production and pricing.

An example of Pure Monopoly is Eskom, the single electricity supplier in


South Africa. Eskom does not have any other competitors in the market
and should other companies chance to enter the market the capital injection
required to start an electricity plant is one barrier amongst others, to enter
the market. In addition, Eskom has total control of the prices. With the
current situation at Eskom it looks like the enterprise is holding the whole
country at ransom. That is the power of a monopolistic company. The
unstated assumption is that the country would not be able to function
without the electricity from Eskom. This does not take into cognizance
growth of bio-fuel. Which the world is moving towards.

2.1 Monopolistic competition


Monopolistic Competition is a combination or balance between Pure
Monopoly and Pure Competition. It is a state in which sellers of
heterogeneous products are monopolist as far as their products are
concerned. However, they compete amongst each other in the market for
almost similar goods.

Characteristics of monopolistic competition


• There are large number of firms in the industry
• Each company produces a distinctive, differentiated product.
• There are no barriers to entry or exit

An example of Monopolistic competition is the restaurants at the Nelson


Mandela Square in Sandton, Johannesburg. Each restaurant in the area
has its specialty or differentiated product, in this case a special menu.
Therefore each restaurant can be viewed as a monopoly to a certain
degree. However the competition is amongst the restaurants for the same
market. In addition, the product differentiation will be decided by the

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consumers. Another example is supermarket industry. There are the usual
know big supermarkets such as Pick n’ Pay, Checkers and Spar. Then
there are other smaller supermarkets. Each would have a no-name brand
that would be a product of the supermarket itself. However you may find
that the content of the product is not differentiated at all, though the
consumers would be the once to state the difference in their own
interpretation. That interpretation could be price or familiarity with the no-
name brand product of one supermarket over the other.

2.1 Oligopoly
Oligopoly is when a few firms dominate the market.

Characteristics of oligopoly
• Barriers to entry differ from industry to industry, however they are
almost no barriers to entry.
• The product may be homogeneous or differentiated.
• Companies in an oligopoly structure are interdependent. Meaning if
one company increases price then the rest of the other companies
will have to follow suit.
• Uncertainty is high. Since a company cannot know the policies and
strategies of its competitors, it operates in a state of uncertainty
because it is

An example of Oligopoly structure in South Africa would be the 3 major


cell phone network providers, Vodacom, Cell C and MTN. These
companies dominate the market. The products they offer are quiet
homogeneous, which makes them a homogeneous oligopoly. When Cell
C introduced the Cell-number-migration, both Vodacom and MTN had to
react to Cell C’s strategy and begin to allow migration on their network as
well. This proves the interdependence of companies within an oligopoly.

Author: NNC SETJEO for Milpark Business School 2010 MBA - MEN Page 10 of 22
Author: NNC SETJEO for Milpark Business School 2010 MBA - MEN Page 11 of 22
The differences between the four above discussed market structures is
mostly visible in the Profit making, which is illustrated below in figure 1.1
Figure 1.1
Profit Pure Pure monopoly Monopolistic Oligopoly
maximization competition competition

MR = Marginal • The • Marginal • Demand is • The MR is


Revenue demand is revenue is equal to below the
MC = Marginal equal to always AR demand
Cost price below the • High profit • .
AR = Average which is demand. maximizati Downward
revenue equal to • Downward on in the sloping,
AC = Average MR. sloping, long run is may be
Cost • Horizontal equals very kinked
and market unlikely • High profit
elastic. demand • Downward maximizati
• When curve -sloping. on in the
MC=MR • Above the • Some long run is
then the equilibrium control very
company point over price unlikely
would only where MR • Considera
begin to = MC that ble control
make a is where over price
profit the but less
though monopoly than in
minimal. makes a monopoly
• No control profit
over price • Considera
• The ble control
likelihood over price
of high but limited
profit by market
maximizati demand

Author: NNC SETJEO for Milpark Business School 2010 MBA - MEN Page 12 of 22
on in the • Profit
long run is maximizati
very low. on in the
long run is
feasible

QUESTION 3

Introduction
South Africa is a country that is very rich in mineral resources. It is the world’s
largest producer and exporter of gold, platinum and chromium, (EverBank 2010).
Though the country is by far the most developed economy on the African
continent, it is also dealing with significant challenges such as outdated
infrastructure and poverty issues. Key issues that might have has an impact in
rendering the Rand to be volatile against the American Dollar in the year 2009
such as inflation, political issues and commodity prices. The focus of this
question is to analyze this volatility and discuss its impact on FDI.

3.1 What is FDI and what does it mean for South Africa?
Foreign Direct Investment is a major stimulus to the economy of a
developing country with key focus on dealing with the challenge of scarcity
of capital, technology, skills and entrepreneurship. According to Mwilima
(2003), FDI is an investment made to acquire a lasting management
interest (usually at least 10% of the voting stock) and acquiring at least
10% equity share in an enterprise operating in a country other than the
home country of the investor. An investor would most probably invest
because of one of the following reasons, seeking cheap labor, seeking
efficiency or seeking a market. The key industries that investors are
most likely to invest in are, Mining, Metalworking, Automobile assembly,
Textiles, Steel, Foodstuffs, Chemicals, and Commercial ship repair.

There are three types of FDI, namely:

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Greenfields
Investing in new assets and starting the business from scratch.
Brownfields
Buying into the shareholding of an existing company and building up.

Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A)


This is the most popular form FDI, however it requires huge numbers of
capital. Through M&A the existing firm eventually disappears. There are
very few benefits to this form of FDI. For example, though employment
will be created at the initial entry of the firm into the economy the layoffs
will be far greater at the time when the firm conducts its restructuring. In
addition, M&A reduces the level of competition. One might find instances
where an investor acquired a domestic competitor just to gain the market
and establish a monopoly. Furthermore M&A gives no guarantee to a
country.

3.2 Benefits of FDI into a country


The whole idea of FDI is to benefit both the investing country as well as
the host economy. There are noticeable benefits of FDI to the hosting
country or economy.

•Transfer of technology
•Transfer of management skills
•Access to new markets
•Stimulation of market forces
•Integrating economies
•Job creation
•Improvement of human capital through skills transfer

3.3 South Africa’s attempts to attract FDI


GEAR
The Department of Finance in 1996 adopted a macroeconomic strategy
policy called GEAR – Growth, Employment and Redistribution. This was a

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5year plan aimed at strengthening economic development, broadening of
employment and the redistribution of income and socioeconomic
opportunities in favor of the poor. According to the Department of
Finance the key goals of the policy as originally outlined were economic
growth of 6% in the year 2000, inflation less than 10%, employment
growth above the increase in economically active population, deficit on the
current account and the balance of payments between 2 and 3 percent, a
ratio of gross domestic savings to GDP of 21.5 percent in the year 2000,
improvement in income distribution, relaxation of exchange controls and
reduction of the budget deficit to below 4 percent of GDP.

ASGISA
Another attempt to liberate the South African economy was through a
national initiative AsgiSA – Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for
South Africa, which was launched in 2006 by the former Deputy President,
Ms Phumzile Mlambo Ngcuka. Its aim is to halve unemployment and
poverty by 2014. AsgiSA identified the following as constraints that
prevent the country form achieving the desired growth rate:
• Relative volatility of the currency
• Labor market skills
• National logistics systems
• Barriers to entry, limits to competition and limited new investment
opportunities
• Regulatory burdens on SME’s
• Deficiencies in state organization, capacity and leadership

Some of the elements that AsgiSA identified to address these constraints


are to pump money into infrastructure, focus on improving education and
skills and adopt special sector strategies for clothing and textiles industries
among others.

Author: NNC SETJEO for Milpark Business School 2010 MBA - MEN Page 15 of 22
This is precisely where one might notice the impact that the Rand/Dollar
exchange volatility had on FDI because it is through FDI especially, that
the above-mentioned constraints can be met head on.
3.4 R: $ Exchange volatility and its impact on FDI
Having established the importance of FDI into South Africa and how it
would assist in strengthening the economic growth, one needs to take into
congnisence the fact that the R:$ exchange gives investors a message as
to how our economy is perceived. The key elements that in my opinion
are attributable to the volatility of the Rand against the American Dollar
are but not exclusive to:

• A change of Government & Political Situation


President Mbeki vacated office in late 2008 and his Deputy Mr.
Motlanthe took over for 6month, then a new President of the country
was democratically elected in April 2009. Mr. Mbeki was an economist
that had steered the country into economical stability and growth during
his presidency. Perhaps the outside world did not believe the following
presidents could keep the country stable in light of possible political
instability within the ruling party at the time. This might have lead to
investors pulling their investment out of the country until they were
reassured that South Africa would not follow in the Zimbabwean
footsteps. That pull of investors from the country depreciates the value
of the Rand and it therefore becomes more expensive to buy the
American Dollars.

However in the later half of 2009 we saw the Rand slightly improving
with the price of petrol going down and commodities also gained their
momentum. A sign that the South African economy was viewed once
again as stable and investors could then invest into the country.

• The Reserve Bank Governor vacating office


% Interests rates were fairly stable in 2009 with marginal declines,
indicating that the economy was stabilizing. However with the new

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Reserve Bank Governor coming into office with a background of having
Chaired Absa Bank that was somewhat troubled at the time, there
wasn’t enough confidence in the new Governor. That resulted in the
Rand declining in value and making it very expensive for our imports.
%
In addition, the GDP fell by 6.4% in the 1st Quarter of 2009. This decline
was caused by the global recession and it cut manufacturing and
mining exports. The prime rate remained at a high of 7.5%

• Fifa World Cup and Infrastructure


As part of the World Cup preparations South Africa has invested a lot of
money into infrastructure development that gave the world an
impression that a lot of jobs have been created. Job creation would
mean more disposable income to be spent which would stabilize the
economy somewhat, and giving the investor the opportunity to invest.
With the same token, infrastructure development would allow for
mergers between foreign investors with domestic entrepreneurs that
would necessitate skills transfer.

From FDI perspective, when the Rand appreciates then the money that the
foreign investor had invested depreciates, which is good for the county. While
from the countries perspective the exporting companies will not be able to make
enough profits. In conclusion the volatility of the R:$ exchange in 2009 had
affected FDI. However FDI had declined across the world due to the global
recession, therefore one cannot make an assumption that even if the Rand had
stability, which is unlikely in a global recession, then perhaps FDI wouldn’t have
suffered.

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QUESTION 4

Introduction
2009 was a financially difficult year globally, with most countries having suffered
a recession that saw economies crumbling down under pressure. This is the
background in which the then Finance Minister, Mr. Trevor Manual had set the
2009/10 Budget.

Below is the summary of the 2009/10 Budget that will be a point of discussion for
this question. The point of discussion is the Fiscal Policy relating it to the budget
and to also provide reasons why the National Treasury did not reach its Revenue
budget.

2009/10 Budget Summary

The Minister of Finance, Mr. Trevor Manuel, announced a Budget that provided
tax relief of R13.6 billion in personal income tax relief to individuals but which
provided for an increase in indirect tax collections of R10 billion.

Government expenditure is to be allocated as follows:

Education R140.4 bn
General public services R51.3 bn
Public order and safety R75.5 bn
Economic affairs R179.6 bn
Recreation and culture R7.7 bn
Social protection R118.1 bn
Housing and community amenities R73.2 bn
Health R86.9 bn
Defence R34.7 bn
Environmental protection R5.6 bn
State debt cost R55.3 bn

The National Treasury, in its October medium-term budget statement, expected


tax revenue to be below the target given in February 2009 by R82,4 billion in the

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2009/10 fiscal year due to South Africa's first recession since 1994.

4.1 Fiscal Policy


The five key focus areas for Government spending are:
4.1.1 Creating jobs
4.1.2 Enhancing the quality of education
4.1.3 Improving health outcomes
4.1.4 Rural development
4.1.5 Fighting crime and corruption

4.1.1 Creating jobs

Just coming out of recession in the last quarter of 2009 and needing to
stimulate the country’s economy, job creation is the number one priority
in getting the economy moving. With 63% of the working population
earning just below R2000, it is imperative for the government to create
sustainable jobs in order to collect tax that is needed to fund the
government’s spending. The 900 000 job losses in 2008/09 due to the
global recession might have played a huge role in the Treasury not
reaching its Revenue Budget. However the Expanded Public Works
Program is estimated to create 500 000.

4.1.2 Enhancing the quality of education

The quality of education in the country has been declining over the past
couple of year. This is evident in the low Matric pass rate and the low
number of students qualifying for university entrance. The government
divided the Department of Education into two departments, adding the
Department of Higher Education onto the existing one. Better quality
education would mean better skilled people in the future, resulting in
them taking an active part in the development of the economy of the
country.

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4.1.3 Improving health outcomes

R86.9 million was budgeted for health in the year 2009. In preparation
for the anticipated influx of visitors who will be coming into the country for
the 2010 FIFA World Cup, the state of the country’s health facilities
needed to be improved. Aside from the FWC preparations, the HIV/AIDS
pandemic that has affected 1 in 10 South African’s required for the
government to improve the state of its health department. A certain
portion of that allocated budget would go toward Anti-Retroviral
Treatment which would improve the quality of life of those infected with
the HI-Virus and reduce the mortality rate. A key factor in improving the
economy of the economy of the country – healthy people who are
employable.

4.1.4 Rural development

R250 million for rural development responsibilities was also allocated to


the 2009/10 budget. Prior to a change of government in April 2009 the
previous government did not have a Rural Development Department.
The formation of this new department may have added to the a R70
billion deficit in the overall budget.

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4.1.5 Fighting crime and corruption

Again with the South Africa hosting one of the world’s biggest sporting
events, the FIFA World Cup, fighting crime and corruption is a priority
that cannot be left unattended to. In addition to the FWC, to attract FDI
into the country safety and security of civilians would be important to
those investors wanting to invest in the country in relation to their asset
as well as the skilled labor/personnel that they would be coming with.
Therefore, a lot more money than budget for had gone into this priority.

4.1 Revenue Budget


Having established the budget for 2009/10, its estimates and its actual, it
is only probable to make a calculated speculation as to why the National
Treasury did not reach its target. There was R562 million additional
expenditure associated with the new national government structure and
functions. A total of R16.4 billion in unforeseeable and unavoidable
adjustments had been recommended by the Treasury Committee in
2009, of which R12 billion went into paying for higher-than-budgeted
salary adjustments. A further R900 million went into health to fight the
spread of HIV/AIDS. These are but just a few of the additional
expenditure that the National Treasury had to accommodate. Juncture
post that with the fact that Revenue Tax Collection was R21 billion less
than anticipated when 2009/10 budget was drawn. The VAT receipt
were also R31 billion lower. This had been caused by the recession that
saw many South Africans losing their jobs and the consumption declined.
In conclusion, the above reasons may give an explanation as to why the
National Treasury was R82,4 billion in deficit and was unable to reach its
2009/10 budget.

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REFERENCE:

 http://www.everbank.com/002CurrencySouthAfrica.aspx
 http://PGordhan/MediumTerm/Budget/Policy/Statement/2009.webarchive
 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d7/Economics_Perfect_co
mpetition.png
 Jackson, J. and McIver, R. (2000), Microeconomics, 6th Edition, McGraw-Hill, Sydney.
 McTaggart, D., Findlay, C. and Parkin, M. (2003), Microeconomics, 4th Edition, Addison
Wesley, Melbourne.
 Mohr. P., Fourie. L and Associates. (2004), Economics for South African students, 3rd
Edition, Van Shaik Publishers, Pretoria.
 Mwilima, N. (2003) Foreign Direct Investment in Africa. Social Observatory Pilot Project,
Final Draft Report – FDI, African Labour Research Network, Labour Resource and
Research Institute
 Sloman, J. and Norris, K. (1999), Microeconomics, Addison-Wesley, Sydney.
 Stiglitz, L. E. (1993), Principles of Microeconomics, Norton, New York.
 Swann, M. and McEachern, W. A. (2003), Microeconomics – A Contemporary
Introduction, 2nd Edition, Nelson, Thomson Learning, Melbourne.

Author: NNC SETJEO for Milpark Business School 2010 MBA - MEN Page 22 of 22

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