QRA in Safety Engineering

Homework 1

Due Mon, January 20, 2020

1. Citizen Engineer

a) As a Citizen Engineer, you are asked to explain briefly the difference between
hazard and risk. Provide an answer to identify and clarify the distinction between
hazard and risk.

b) State a brief description of a Citizen Engineer with responsibilities as a citizen

and responsibilities as an engineer.

2. Causal Analysis of Statistical Data

For Risk Assessment, we work with causes of effects, but from statistics alone
we do not directly obtain the causes, which then are inferred from other
information. To facilitate the causal analysis, we work with Causal Diagrams,
such as shown below, and as figures in the RDBN pp. 1-6 from your first
Reading Assignment.

Trigger
Influencethe
Influence the
Control likelihood
likelihood of
occurrence
of
Event occurrence

Event
Influence the
Mitigant Consequence
magnitude

Consequence occurrence

From your reading of RDBM pp. 1-4 and Figure 1.4, answer the following
questions
a) State the two basic types of statistical data in Figure 1.1 with an example
of each type, and state the basic shape of each of the two basic types of

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 data when the data are plotted in a Probability Density distribution, such
as displayed in Figure 1.3

b) State why distinguishing the two types of data is important and comment
on the consequence of not understanding such data about important
applications such as events reported in the public media.

c) Briefly describe each of the three types of Causal Network Junctions with
three nodes, sketch each type and provide a simple example of each.

A B, Mediator C

Chain: Fire Smoke Alarm.

Fire produces Smoke, which is detected by the Alarm.

Fork: A ←B → C

d) Collider:

Toxic
e)
Cancer Smoking
e)

f) State why Fire and Alarm are conditionally independent

given smoke.

Fire Smoke Alarm

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Fire produces smoke, which is detected by the Alarm. Without smoke
there will not be an alarm. Therefore, Fire and Alarm are conditionally
independent given smoke.

3. Information, Data, Judgment, Opinion

a) Briefly state your understanding of the following underlined words: information

(or data, evidence), knowledge, compared to opinion or judgment. State an
application when opinion or judgment from a knowledgeable or experienced
person could be needed or required.

Information:

Knowledge:

An application where judgment is needed from one or more experienced persons is:

b) If you are told that A is true or not true under certain conditions, what should you
seek to support that statement?

c) To emphasize the importance of evidence-based reasoning and evidence

based decision making, an engineer could state that a hypothesis without
supporting evidence can be rejected without evidence. State whether you
agree with this statement, and briefly state your reasoning.

4. In a few words, state the three main questions to be answered by a risk

assessment under specified conditions and state what is needed to answer
each question.

What can go wrong:

How Likely:.

Outcome consequences:
Given the probability distribution and consequence distribution, a risk distribution or risk
level ranges can be calculated for each identified scenario outcome event resulting from
each hazard under the stated condition ranges.

5. An important objective of Engineering Risk Management and Leadership is more

realistic forecasting of future behavior of critical system components and behavior of

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the overall system. One important component of system behavior forecasting is
continual, as much as feasible, system behavioral monitoring and gathering data to
test models used to forecast behavior and to update the parameters of those models
for more accurate subsequent forecasting. A standard method of interpreting
behavior data is by means of traditional statistical tools to identify correlations, trends,
and causes.

a) State why traditional statistical tools are useful but are not sufficient by
themselves for accurate behavior forecasting. Begin by identifying traditional
statistical analysis and the type of data involved.

b) As discussed in class and in RDBN, Chapter 1, state what is needed in addition

to traditional statistical tools for more realistic and therefore more accurate behavior
forecasting.

6. RAE, pp. 31-32, Problem 2.4. Take information from the RAE problem
statement, and answer the questions listed below in this homework problem
statement.

a) Write an expression for the Individual annual Risk of an exposure accident, Rind,
by multiplying the Frequency of the absorbed dose point value by the
Consequence point value. Then use the given information to calculate a
numerical point value for the individual risk per year, Rind. Note that with
information about the uncertainties of these quantities, we could calculate a
much more realistic estimate of the Risk, which would be based on uncertainties
or distributions for each component in the Risk expression resulting in a Risk
value with a total uncertainty or ideally a Risk distribution that incorporated the
uncertainties.

Rind = f ⋅ C = [Toxicity*Breathing Rate*Absorption Fraction

*Exposure Time/yr*Scenario Frequency*] x Death/gram-person

Rind = f ⋅ C =
b) Write an expression for and calculate a numerical point value for the Societal
Risk, Rsoc, by using the information of the number of the population exposed and
the Individual Risk value calculated in a) for Rind. We will use the fatality risk
standard of 10-6/yr for involuntary Societal Risk of people in the community
Rsoc =af.C
outside plant
= or other facility. Comment on your calculated value with regard to
acceptable for ≤ 10 /yr or unacceptable for > 10-6/yr based on this common
-6

involuntary fatality risk criterion.

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 c) Use the results of a) and b) to write an expression for and calculate, via the
reciprocal of Risk, the odds of death/year due to exposure for Individual Risk
and a similar expression and calculation of odds of death/year for Societal Risk.

Societal Risk odds: 1/Rsoc = 1 in

Individual Risk odds: 1/Rind = 1 in

d) Write an expression for and calculate to 3 sd (significant digits) the time exposure
in units of hours corresponding to an individual annual fatality risk of 10-6, the
common involuntary fatality risk criterion.

−6
⎡ 10 × 10 −6 gm ⎛ 5m3 ⎞ ⎛ 3 × 10 −4 ⎞ ⎤ ⎛ cancer death ⎞
Rind = 10 / yr = ⎢ ⎜⎝ hr ⎟⎠ (0.1)(Time) ⎜⎝ yr ⎟⎠ ⎥ • ⎜⎝ 10 gm − person ⎟⎠
⎢⎣ m3 ⎥⎦

Time =

7. A tank is used to store water for local use. During any day, the water supply inflow
will fill the tank with an additional 6, 7, or 8 ft (but no other) of water above a 7 ft
minimum level in the tank. The daily demand or consumption of the water will draw
down the water in the tank by an amount equivalent to 5, 6, or 7 ft (but no other) of
the water.

a) Prepare a table of three columns showing the combinations (in units of ft) of
inflow and outflow of water in the tank during a given day. Include columns of
Inflow, Outflow, Inflow – Outflow + 7 ft. Below this table, list the possible
combinations of inflow and outflow levels, such as (6’, 5’).

b) If the water levels in the tank are always 7 ft from the bottom at the beginning of a
day, state the possible water levels in the tank at the end if the day.

c) If the amounts of inflow and outflow of water for the tank are equally likely, find
the probability for event E that at least 9 ft of water will remain in the tank at the
end of the day. Estimate the probability of event E from the ratio (or relative
frequency, n/N) of n = number of occurrences of the E event of water level (9 ft or
greater) to N = total number of all water level events. Therefore:

n # E level occurrences
P(E) = =
N Total # level occurrences
Solution:

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 Possible water level
(a) Inflow Outflow Inflow – Outflow + 7’
6’ 5’ 8’

The possible combinations of inflow and outflow are

(6’,5’), …

(b) The possible water levels in the tank are:

(c) Let E = at least 9 ft of water remains in the tank at the end of day. Three
sample points, …’’ correspond to the event E.

So, P(E) n/N = …

8. Consider the Oil Wildcatter example in Unit 2.

a) Calculate the P(θ1), probability of encountering significant oil, and round to 2 sd

(significant digits), for which the EMV of the two Oil Wildcatter decision
alternatives become equivalent. Below this threshold probability value, the EMV
of decision alternative α2, not to drill, is larger than the EMV of alternative α1, to
drill, and therefore alternative α2 is favored based on this information.

b) By numerical calculation or trial and error, obtain the threshold probability value
for equal EMV, which is P(θ1) ~ 0.22, below which the alternative not to drill, α2,
is favored based on maximum EMV.

c) State whether the oil drilling company should make the decision between these
two alternatives based only on this information. State what other information
could lower uncertainty to help them make an optimum decision.

d) How would this decision depend on company size or available company

resources. Consider this decision for two company sizes: a small company,
where $1.5 Million is a large fraction of their resources compared to a larger
company with ten times the resources of the smaller company. Would a smaller
company have a greater aversion to the risk than the larger company?

e) If a test of the rock strata is performed and the probability of significant oil
presence based on this information is increased to 0.5, calculate the expected
value of the alternative to drill. State whether this monetary value should (or
would likely not) offset the cost = $50,000 of obtaining the additional information
for an optimum decision.

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 V | α1 = 0.5(10) + 0.5(−1.5) = $ 4.25 M

This increased monetary value of the decision alternative should easily offset the
nominal cost of obtaining the additional information, such as $50,000 for an
optimum decision.

f) If the test of the rock strata costs $50,000 (TC), estimate the monetary value of
information (VI) gained from the test, where VI = (optimum value following the
test) – (optimum value without the test). To be cost effective, the VI should be
significantly greater than the cost of the test. State whether VI >> cost of test.

9. Relate what you have learned so far about uncertainty to a problem involving
popcorn kernel popping times.
a) Consider a package of microwave popcorn for which you set the
microwave oven timer for, e.g., 3 minutes, turn on the microwave oven,
and you listen during thermal warming of the popcorn kernels, and
continue to listen as the corn pops (each a physical explosion (at various
rates increasing and going through an extremum, and then decreasing
rates similar to Gaussian or Normal distribution pdf behavior. Even though
the kernels can be assumed to be from the same population of a particular
type of popcorn and are being heated at roughly the same rate, state three
of many reasons why the kernels pop at different times.

b) Recall that the two primary types of uncertainty are aleatory due to
randomness of conditions and epistemic due to amount and quality of the
data. For the kernels to pop at different times is an example of what type of
uncertainty, which you state as your answer below. Our measurements of
the popcorn popping time are subject to what type of uncertainty, which
you state below with a reason for your answer.

c) Now consider a failure time test measurement of 20 units of a component

of your system held during the test under roughly the same conditions.
Answer the questions below:
a. Do you expect the failure times of the 20 units of a component to
be roughly the same or would the observed failures be spread out
in time similar to the popcorn popping time that could be modeled
by a Gaussian or Normal distribution probability density function,
pdf. Briefly state your reasoning.

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b. Would you take the first observed component failure time to be a
good approximation of component failure time or would you wait
for additional failure data and use all of your failure data from the
test to estimate the component failure time? State why.

c. Comment on the overall fundamental lesson about Engineering

Uncertainty modeling and uncertainty management subject to
Engineering Validation to benefit your engineering system.