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Libya
Libya
Indian stocks dropped on concern surging oil prices amid instability in the Middle East and North
Africa will fan inflation and prompt further increases in interest rates in the South Asian nation.
Hero Honda Motors Ltd., the country’s biggest motorcycle maker, sank to its lowest in 18 months.
HDFC Bank Ltd., the second-largest private lender, lost 2.9 percent. Oil jumped to the highest in
more than two years as violence escalated in Libya, stoking concern crude supplies will be
disrupted. Reliance Industries Ltd., the largest company by market value, surged 3 percent after
agreeing to sell stakes in 23 oil areas to BP Plc.
The oil rally “can lead to price rises and will make controlling inflation tougher,” said D.K.
Aggarwal, who manages about $100 million as chairman of SMC Wealth Management Services
Ltd. in New Delhi. “Some investors would like to book profits as the outlook is unclear.”
The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, or Sensex, lost 142.15, or 0.8 percent, to
18,296.16 at the 3:30 p.m. close in Mumbai. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock
Exchange dropped 0.9 percent to 5,469.20. The BSE 200 Index retreated 0.9 percent to
2,243.93.
Hero Honda lost 3.4 percent to 1,390.55 rupees, its lowest close since August 2009. HDFC Bank
led declines among financial companies, dropping 2.9 percent to 2,138.45 rupees, its biggest
decline in more than three weeks.
Inflation, Growth
The Sensex has lost 11 percent this year, making it the world’s third-worst-performing benchmark
index after Egypt and Tunisia in local currency terms, amid concern government measures to
quell inflation will hurt economic growth.
Last year, India’s gauge climbed 17 percent, adding to the 81 percent surge in 2009. Since
reaching a record on Nov. 5, the index has slumped 13 percent, exceeding the 10 percent drop
that’s termed a so-called correction by some investors. Companies on the measure are valued at
an average of 17.2 times estimated earnings, down from last year’s high of about 21.5 times in
March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
New York oil futures for March delivery rose as much as 9.6 percent, while London-traded Brent
surged to the highest since September 2008, as soldiers deserted Libyan leader Muammar
Qaddafi’s government and diplomats resigned. The country, holder of the largest crude reserves
on the African continent, pumped 1.6 million barrels a day of oil in January, equivalent of about 8
percent of U.S. consumption.
Energy Needs
India meets about three-quarters of its annual energy needs from imports and is bracing for the
impact of higher fuel costs on inflation, currently stoked mainly by food costs.
Protracted Middle East unrest will have “implications” for oil prices, flagging a fresh inflation risk,
central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said on Feb. 10.
The fastest inflation rate in at least six years is reducing purchasing power in India, where the
World Bank estimates more than three-quarters of the people live on less than $2 a day. The
Reserve Bank of India, which has raised rates seven times in the past year, last month urged
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee to cut subsidies to curb consumer demand and help cool
inflation. Mukherjee is scheduled to announce the budget on Feb. 28 for the financial year starting
April 1.
President Pratibha Devisingh Patil yesterday told parliament in New Delhi at the start of the
budget session that India’s priority is to slow inflation and sustain growth.
Inflationary Pressures
BNP Paribas last week cut its rating for the nation’s stock market to “underweight” from “neutral,”
citing a rise in inflationary pressures and the outlook for fund flows and earnings.
Reliance Industries Ltd. advanced 3 percent to 984.85, its steepest climb since Dec. 10. BP
agreed to pay $7.2 billion for stakes in 23 blocks in India from Reliance. It will acquire a 30
percent interest in the blocks as well as form a venture with Reliance to market gas, the London-
based company said in a statement yesterday.
Reliance’s stock today was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Antique Stock Broking Ltd. following
the agreement.
“We believe that this deal could help Reliance to establish its exploration and production business
valuations,” analysts led by Amit Rustagi wrote in a note to clients. “Further, accelerated
development of existing blocks, higher recovery rates and access to deepwater technology will
help in creating long-term value for shareholders.”
The brokerage said it raised its price estimate for Reliance to 1,102 rupees per share after
incorporating additional “exploration upside” of 49 rupees per share, based on the transaction
value.
Overseas funds bought a net 2.45 billion rupees ($54 million) of Indian equities on Feb. 18, paring
total outflows from equities this year to 66.6 billion rupees, according to data on the website of the
Securities and Exchange Board of India.