a Chapter 10 Structural Reliability: Weakest Link and Fail-Safe Systems Biographical Note —_———________— John Venn John Venn was born on August 4, 1834 in Hull, England and died on April 4, 1923 in Cambridge, England. He studied at Gonville and Caius College in Cambridge and received his degree in mathematics in 1857. He received the Cambridge Sc.D. in 1883 and was elected a fellow of the Royal Society in the same year. He was one of the first persons to explain the basic concepts of probability from the standpoint of logic. Although many of his arguments are now discounted, his book, “The Logic of Chance,” is well known for its simplicity. In fact, his books on probability and logic were highly esteemed textbooks in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, Along with other topics, he discussed the subjects of. life expectancy and the law of error. According to his theory, a person can expect to live to be of certain age, based on the average age observed for other people, since all persons (not animals, for example) have similarly constructed bodies. Venn is better known for the “Venn diagrams” that are used in set theory as well as in probability theory. He explained the problem of inverse probability through Venn diagrams. In recent years, Venn diagrams have been used in elementary mathematics to stimulate logical thinking beginning in the early stages of a child’s education (10.16, 10.17]. 315,Bisdeeng a mle tract sien 8 cen by the random variable S.The proba ot scant popremieriery ecru 28)={l faded cen ie tho oat probalty density function of $ and Zand the | Pl ie os owe 4 1 urea sed rliablity has been introduced in Chapter i acts tte ey hs anne in Chater 9 ‘Teaco of see | leat for whic edig is dxeribed by tka | ) ver fal Tees eA ne n'y is toe evalusiod over the fre Ne ee oe, Laom, he prety of ar cab a 5150 ie acme agai o by sien erect of tat ian ov eens enbe) cane i teres esl cte,in sy © cine? solace en ae yoab is move Sy ih to m7 sotene aree matneute samy oeskewionge | imipenem rotting | Y at ee recess scree oi som fe At ne ay gaan toa none shen ERP Tigo ele shee gu ao, norm oe «pea ie thant anon cee wilt ap eal nets | Ti ocectbeeae hetenscg lenen aye ie ata pea aeanle fact mem te ately ner ein nat paca ar le aa ay Tinatpedistmnecem flcdereaesiiag Fweampe amine |g Jel system may fail due to the failure of different elements or the elements i (@ ‘may fal in different orders, All these consideratians are important in the reli- “ by antguocta pall mies a "hai meng ee daca uum | secre Han svt py be li fs near ‘pacity aftar ite faibure (ace Pig. 10.20), On Uhe other hand, if the element i ductile, it will nat carry ay aden! Dab) ey ae el Sa ke cara he ea oF. ‘This chapter deals with te reliaiityanabse of weskes-ink and Se ‘Dotan soma rome i ap ad i pees Many of mn, nm 0] Gr Pe Tee ean se canto ne mn wae ‘el cneofweaee Sak mae ad i far bet til nine 182. Fundamental One Member {25 Zundamentt one omber-One aay 1 Probatty of ere en nen toe We corer pin coe onset i eS Peat ae ee {a problem 101204) econ A (oe lond as abo InP 1040“ » " et Poke them srameat ae considred tbe ndependet random vavsbles. Ths he ‘Spat efthe elit of the fandaretal eae lb enta ohe ‘Spun laity cose err. To prbaaity abate given by Paris etda[ Fahad a2, sonia, Protcpices)1-[, Fu fade ana XE sagt ed teed ene randr, teahbenan ‘ava, Be. 00) ad Perey fay oo FAZER ity) citi hee andy deste the ith ale ofthe lad an wa mad he loud and the th valve of the 22 aay nee Teak ttatrotesrutrt manera snob eres 08 Pobre a see ‘ aon BSE Sah ale he xy maa tothe ene of sre Sad te aby eat ee etary die a en ene Fe Sie 8 eee can are @ dents the val ofthe sete scion andr pr ‘ints cvennding te al ‘The Salty of fare Se ume onthe pray a eg eo (trepih onan thelaed Th fre tort aay fm we ln = pbb ore the eat (S,L)im areas F +Fy+Fin Fig 108 HPS Leni 8 pohbityefrelig te pit 8.) ara Fy >PL> tna 8 <8) >pape 00) PrP bon) ox= ot o i he at a oad td he igh em crn ear e ‘Eid ep aa sa be epee mem valve of Recetas the pit 5.) nn 8 +3, +80 Fe 18 PLB Suit La) 033) Fem Dente tera ee ati [Ry pobabity of aiiag he oa, ina S >PIS> Sasi Lae) >a-pi)tt-pa) ante Sine Py 21 Ry the equity (1014 be writen at Pyct-tt-mNtt-n) 01 Combining the neque (1010 an (101) he bandon he prea ‘tare canbe expend (ra aleP4)=1-PI8, 9410810140 °° 8,24 Ay Oa01-Fa a OF = -Fit-Fy ao2s) where denotn the trang of he sri ate an th treat of the ‘vidal mentors) ae amued tobe ndependeat aed apa 1Eithe peta, the ee rrr ince in member wil be whee ‘ants Une ve rte inde in omer whe a io i apd the teens Byles cen be detained by ong be maths of ‘Segal enya In thas, he ray of fafare cn be funda Ppet-yntel soba auf, [fw neo)iow az terete een ou acts mi ra fa ee et leo dnd St ‘ambi Be doen tense rea [foros ans discrete vn of the Jon, a0 te tnd as whore 4, deni the ree, aes, ein a mania aoe of eld 2 1042 singe pound one oti ot tere aarp amatetie 1 ifmumber i bassordved 5oy.9,..j8 (031) “PESEor oa eee ae "The probity offre pet Rant-Plseione19 : ‘tang te miei ee i fier et Bede wa pala)Ptalaa) Pela) os) PaynaseMi mete sq tosneantersten et Payetnaset), Plvetonse ns naeeD ppetetosed ead Fagstnnsln pane ‘i030 arma ag on ments a pstily crated Bc be en Me grand Pamtngeia ama aPiqyeton sins om DPbaasD; Lsksm-1 035) 030s bed tan an per bund n h robiyot {ate tbe ptr at 936) tomegen a gent PMP) oan ‘geen GO wil bet over bode he ron val ofthe pot {shceandhewn bunds pay ofr can be peed pe Pa=0ehye8-fit-iy 0) mp rastrst- fr) cos ‘he sightand sd fhe egy (1065) can be Serbo. 1036) can be used to obtain another onthe pbb falar fhe seers a allows A flt-rget-a-ra-ry arg) Meee os ERO RAPy 2B eB Hd OEP ye} “Bekgre vom Srey Want and Fa Sens 327 t a mot praia situations, Py, are very wall eanpre oui, and hee ‘he terms invelving their product wil be ngiigible, Thus Bq (10.39) ean be 1 writen as vilrdegn oa ens wfla-rosdir con 4 1242 teen ene pity “Tae bounds ven by Eg, (10.8) wl to wide fo many prc! ain Tee Raher bunds, known a Deleron bund, ca be Seed rere {meme ae folios (031. Deainga varabley fi the sere eet has rived 90 ithe ere saten ha fled os) : sre ean expres in tara ay ayo oa yeni ‘By replacing 81 ~(L~¥, B (1049 ae een aafl-n) nat) iy pocsedingi similar manner, a. (1048 can be writen at sexys Reale) 048) fi yosyna(hsy)=s81-20)~ ‘ ‘Neng Ut the ela of the pean Re i ame a9 Be (1048) inutebtate Ppat-Re=1-Bb) ! Se od nay) leg hangs 02 9B sel vec onthe right-hand se of By (1048) ae sonnet 040) vee al ‘Rating thet the neal serrate ldnasbe(inagie +m (047 Invalid fr any h-=2, Sho. MED iney madeaeei-nl=EOnat-w) 048)